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Presentation by Mike Tretheway at the Airports Canada 2013 Conference & Exhibition
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Canadian Aviation: By the NumbersAirports Canada 2013
11 April 2013
Dr. Mike TrethewayInterVISTAS Consulting Chief Strategy Officer, Chief Economist
PassengersMovements
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Time Series of Canada Air Passenger Traffic
Source: Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada
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Canada Air Passenger Traffic
Source: Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada
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Canada Air Passenger Traffic
Source: Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada
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28% 40%
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Time Series ofUS Air Passenger Traffic
Source:1960-2006 ATA , 2007-2012 BTS
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US vs Canada Pax Traffic1990-2012
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Source: InterVISTAS Calculations with data from: Canada-Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics CanadaUS- 1960-2006 ATA , 2007-2012 BTS .
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Commercial Aircraft Movements
Source: Aviation in Canada (1980-1990) and Table 401-0009, Statistics Canada.
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Total GA Movements for Canada
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Source: Statistics Canada, Table 401-007, 401-0015 and 401-0021.
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Canadian Air Cargo
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No accurate data
Fares, Load Factors, etc.
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Source: Statistics Canada Average Fare data, Cat. 51 -004-Xp = preliminaryMajor Air Carriers include Air Canada (mainline & AC Jazz), WestJet, Air Transat and Canada 3000
Average Fare: CanadaNominal: Not Adjusted for Inflation
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Sources: Statistics Canada Average Fare data, Cat. 51 -004-XStatistics Canada Consumer Price Index
p = preliminary air fare dataMajor Air Carriers include Air Canada (mainline & AC Jazz), WestJet, Air Transat and Canada 3000
Real Average Fare: Canada
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Load Factor- Canada
Source: Aviation in Canada, Statistics Canada. Transport Canada
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Passengers per Aircraft- Canada1980-2011
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Source: InterVISTAS Calculations with data from: Aviation in Canada (1980-1990) and Table 401-0009, Statistics Canadaand Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada
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Annual Turboprop + Regional Jet Percentages
79% 72% 74% 75%
Scheduled Flight Frequency: Domestic Canada
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Source: Official Airline Guide Schedule Data, full year data for 1998, 2002, 2007, and 2012.
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Annual Turboprop + Regional Jet Percentages
49% 37% 42% 50%
Scheduled Seat Capacity: Domestic Canada
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Source: Official Airline Guide Schedule Data, full year data for 1998, 2002, 2007, and 2012.
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Source: Transport Canada Registered Commercial Aircraft database
Commercial Aircraft: Canada
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Number of Employees
Source: 1980-1990- Statistics Canada, Aviation in Canada2006-2011- Statistics Canada, 51-004-X
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Financial
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Canadian Air Carrier Total Revenue and Expenses
Source: Statistics Canada, 51-004-X
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Return on Assets for Canadian Air Carriers
Source: Statistics Canada, 1980-1985- Aviation in Canada. 2005-2011, 51-004-X.
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AirportsSecurity
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Total Capital Investmentsby Canadian Airports
Note: Montreal includes both Trudeau and Mirabel AirportsSource: Airport Annual Reports.
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$15b$9b since 2004
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Rents Paid to Transport Canada by Canadian Airports
Source: Transport Canada Annual Reports.
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Air Travellers’ Security Charge & Expenditure
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Source: CATSA Annual Reports and Public Accounts of Canada, Annual Financial Review
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
70020
03
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Millio
n $
Revenue vs. Op Expense
ATSC rev
CATSA op exp
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Aviation Security Since 2003
• ATSC Revenues: $4.3b• CATSA Op Exp: $4.2b• CATSA Investment: $0.9b
• First 2 years:• Revenue $830mn
Expenses $410mn ($616mn)• Is aviation security merely a benefit to pax?
Or is it national security, with benefits to Canada?
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Fuel
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Fuel Cost per Litrefor Canadian Air Carriers
Source: 1980-1990- Statistics Canada, Aviation in Canada2006-2011- Statistics Canada, 51-004-X
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Fuel Litres per RPK
Source: 1970-1990- Statistics Canada, Aviation in Canada 2006-2011- Statistics Canada, 51-004-X. Transport Canada
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Oil Price Consensus Forecast
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•Its not down•Its not back to $145
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If History Repeats the Swing….Oil Price with Full Historical Range
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Upper range
Base price forecastLower range
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Note the scale
Safety
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Accidents for Canadian Commercial Aircraft
Source: 2001-2011 Statistics Canada, 51-004-X. Transportation Safety Board of Canada1970-1990 Statistics Canada, Aviation in Canada
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Economic Update
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Canada Real GDP Growth
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Sources: Historical and Forecast Data from International Monetary Fund, World Economic Database, October 2012.
Ann
ualiz
ed Y
-O-Y
Gro
wth
Rat
e
Historical Data
Forecast Data
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US Real GDP Growth - Forecast
Source: 2007-2012 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis2013-2017 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011
Forecast DataA
nnua
lized
Y-O
-Y G
row
th R
ate
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Canada Real GDP (Historical)
37Sources: Historical Canada GDP (1961 to 2012) – Statistics Canada.
Recessions are wiggles in a steadily growing economy
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Time Series of Canada Air Passenger Traffic
Source: Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada
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Thank You
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