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POLS 425 U.S. Foreign Policy
U.S.-China Relations: How Should the U.S. Deal with a Rising Power?
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U.S. Foreign PolicyThe United States and China
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What perspective is represented in the video?
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U.S. Foreign PolicyThe United States and China
• How should the United States deal with China?
What is the first step we must take before answering this question?
Hint: Think like a constructivist
We must determine what China’s interests and intentions are: everything flows from the assumptions we make about what “China wants”
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U.S. Foreign PolicyThe United States and China
• What does “China want”Realist answer: ________________________________Liberal answer: ________________________________Marxist answer: ________________________________
Constructivst answer: __________________________
Power and regional dominance
Economic growth and prosperity
Economic dominance
“Whatever we say it wants”
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U.S. Foreign PolicyThe United States and China
What are the policy implications of this realistassumption? That is, how do realist answer the question, “How should the U.S. deal with China?”
“China wants power and regional dominance”
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U.S. Foreign PolicyThe United States and China
Key Implication: Realists tell us that China must be treated as a strategic threat, an enemy …
“China cannot rise peacefully” (Mearschiemer)
“[China] is bound to be no strategic friend of the United States, but a long-term adversary” (Bernstein and Munro)
“China wants power and regional dominance”
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U.S. Foreign PolicyThe United States and China
What is the logic of the realist arguments provided by Mearsheimer and Bernstein/Munro?Mearscheimer: “Better to be Godzilla than Bambi”TranslationStates with the potentialto become a great power,a regional hegemon, willalways do so
“China wants power and regional dominance”
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U.S. Foreign PolicyThe United States and China
Mearscheimer
“To predict the future of Asia, one needs a theory [i.e., realism] that explains how rising powers are likely to act and how other states attempt to establish hegemony …. The ultimate goals of every great power is to maximize its share of world power and eventually dominate the system”
“China wants power and regional dominance”
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U.S. Foreign PolicyThe United States and China
Bernstein and Munro “Nothing could be more important in understanding China’s
goals and self-image than its military modernization program”
Basis logic: China’s military program is objective proof that the Chinese are hell bent on countering U.S. power and, eventually, pushing the United States out of Asia altogether. When the Chinese are ready, they will not hesitate to use force to achieve their goals
“China wants power and regional dominance”
According to the authors, what is significant about China’s military build-up? What does it tell us about China’s intentions?
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U.S. Foreign PolicyThe United States and China
What are the policy implications of this liberalassumption? That is, how do liberals answer the question, “How should the U.S. deal with China?”
“China wants economic growth and prosperity”
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U.S. Foreign PolicyThe United States and China
Key Implications. China’s energies are directed toward creating a more prosperous economy, and confrontation with the United States will not serve this purpose
The United States, therefore, should treat China as potential strategic partner; it should build rather than burn bridges (perhaps by encouraging China’s greater integration into global institutions), and by recognizing that China has legitimate interests in Asia
“China wants economic growth and prosperity”
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U.S. Foreign PolicyThe United States and China
Logic of Liberal Argument …
Internationally: China’s economic growth is creating stronger basis for regional integration, which increases incentive for cooperation and reduces incentive for conflict or force
China is increasingly replacing Japan as the “hub of a transnational assembly line of production” (Feffer)A confrontational foreign policy could disrupt China’s growth, “harm hundreds of millions of Chinese, and threaten the Communist Party’s hold on power” (Brzezinski)
“China wants economic growth and prosperity”
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U.S. Foreign PolicyThe United States and China
Logic of Liberal Argument …
Domestically: The democratic peace thesispresupposes that a democratic China would be less threatening; ironically, this point was made by Bernstein and Munro …
“If China became a democracy its military build-up would be far less threatening than if it remained a dictatorship”
“China wants economic growth and prosperity”
Bernstein and Munro’s point raises an important question …
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Will China become a
democracy?How do Bernstein and Munro answer this question? Do they provide a convincing argument?
Bernstein and Munro’s argument …
• Democracy is “contrary to Chinese political culture”
• Bureaucrats would have to relinquish power
• The Chinese people don’t want democracy
• Democracy would subvert foreign policy interests
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U.S. Foreign PolicyThe United States and China
China as a democracy? Points to ConsiderThe past is not the future: no country was a democracy before it became a democracyDemocracy has always been about power and it has always involved taking power from one groupThe Chinese population is huge and hugely diverse: millions may be satisfied with the status quo, but millions may want a fundamental changeThe 20th century witnessed a huge increase in the number of democracies: there is no reason to believe that Chinese leaders are any more capable of stopping this trend than other dictatorsThere is an undeniable connection between capitalist development and democracy
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U.S. Foreign PolicyThe United States and China
The Logic of Liberal Argument
Whether or not China becomes a democracy, liberals tell us that the country--or, more accurately, important actors within the country--will have an interest in avoiding conflict
U.S. foreign policy, therefore, should be premised on encouraging cooperation and partnership, while ensuring that China does not seriously threaten US interests; liberals, then, might support a policy of “congagement”
“China wants economic growth and prosperity”
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U.S. Foreign PolicyThe United States and China
A Key Distinction
Realists believe in certainties: the certainty of confrontation, the certainty of great power behavior, the certainty of Chinese aggression
Liberals believe in uncertainty: the uncertainty of economic growth, the uncertainty of integration, the uncertainty of political change (e.g., democratization), the uncertainty of “choice”
Realism and Liberalism Compared
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U.S. Foreign PolicyThe United States and China
Who makes the better argument?
What are the strengths and weaknesses of the realist and liberal perspectives?
Is there an alternative?
Realism and Liberalism Compared
How would a constructivist approach the question of US-China relations?
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U.S. Foreign PolicyThe United States and China
A Constructivist Approach