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United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA July, 2018 China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher Import Tariff for U.S. Soybeans China’s soybean imports have grown steadily for the last couple of decades driven by growing population, urbanization, and rising incomes. Improved living standards have spurred China’s meat consumption, creating strong demand for high-protein feeds and edible oils. However, due to China’s decision to include soybeans on the list of key U.S. commodities that are subject to retaliatory tariffs of 25 percent, China’s expected demand for imported soybeans is forecast to decline. Accordingly, China’s 2018/19 soybean import forecast is cut 8.0 million tons to 95.0 million this month, 2.0 million tons below the 2017/18 estimate. Lower 2018/19 soybean imports will be partially offset by a larger carryin from 2017/18. The current trade tension between China and the United States has rattled oilseeds markets as importers and processors attempt to secure supplies for the next marketing year. With the 2017/18 soybean import forecast unchanged, lower crush results in ending stocks being revised nearly 3.0 million tons higher to 23.4 million. Crush will continue growing, though at a slower pace than initially forecast. This will result in a reduction in China’s total oilseed meal consumption in 2018/19. With global rapeseed and sunflowerseed production forecasts down in 2018/19, China will not be able to fully offset soybean meal with other oilseed meals. It is likely that feed rations will be altered, reducing protein meals in favor of additional coarse grains, silage, and corn byproducts. USDA forecasts China to consume over 93.0 million tons of oilseed meals (soybean meal equivalent basis), which represents a slowing in annual consumption growth from 6.1 percent to 3.8 percent. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China Soybean S&D Total Supply Domestic Demand Stocks Imports 0 20 40 60 80 100 Million Tons China Oilseeds Crush Soybean Other

China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

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Page 1: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

July, 2018

China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed

On Higher Import Tariff for U.S. Soybeans

China’s soybean imports have grown steadily for the last couple of decades driven by growing population, urbanization, and rising incomes. Improved living standards have spurred China’s meat consumption, creating strong demand for high-protein feeds and edible oils. However, due to China’s decision to include soybeans on the list of key U.S. commodities that are subject to retaliatory tariffs of 25 percent, China’s expected demand for imported soybeans is forecast to decline. Accordingly, China’s 2018/19 soybean import forecast is cut 8.0 million tons to 95.0 million this month, 2.0 million tons below the 2017/18 estimate. Lower 2018/19 soybean imports will be partially offset by a larger carryin from 2017/18. The current trade tension between China and the United States has rattled oilseeds markets as importers and processors attempt to secure supplies for the next marketing year. With the 2017/18 soybean import forecast unchanged, lower crush results in ending stocks being revised nearly 3.0 million tons higher to 23.4 million. Crush will continue growing, though at a slower pace than initially forecast. This will result in a reduction in China’s total oilseed meal consumption in 2018/19. With global rapeseed and sunflowerseed production forecasts down in 2018/19, China will not be able to fully offset soybean meal with other oilseed meals. It is likely that feed rations will be altered, reducing protein meals in favor of additional coarse grains, silage, and corn byproducts. USDA forecasts China to consume over 93.0 million tons of oilseed meals (soybean meal equivalent basis), which represents a slowing in annual consumption growth from 6.1 percent to 3.8 percent.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Million Tons

China Soybean S&D

Total Supply Domestic Demand

Stocks Imports

0

20

40

60

80

100

Million Tons

China Oilseeds Crush

Soybean Other

Page 2: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

2017/18 China Soybean Supply and Demand Update Rebounding pork supplies and low meat prices on the Chinese market, coupled with higher global soybean prices and eroding Chinese crush margins, significantly slowed soybean processing between October 2017 and June 2018. As a result, USDA has cut China’s soybean crush forecast by 3.0 million tons, to 92.0 million. With the soybean import forecast unchanged at 97.0 million tons, ending stocks are projected to grow to a new record. In 2017/18, China is projected to consume almost 90.0 million tons of oilseed meals (on a soybean meal equivalent basis), 4.6 percent more compared to last year. This is below last month’s forecast of 6.9 percent annual growth. However, China is not only the world’s largest livestock and protein feed producer but also a major player in the vegetable oil market. Supported by strong economic growth over the last decade, the demand for edible oils has also been robust. Continuing urbanization and rising incomes have significantly altered the vegetable oil market as consumers’ preference has been shifting towards premium oils. Soybean oil accounts for nearly half of the total edible vegetable oil consumption, while palm oil is estimated to drop to only 8 percent in 2017/18. However, with lower soybean crush, soybean oil output is forecast to fall and will need to be offset with larger vegetable oil imports, including palm oil.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Million Tons

China Imports: Vegetable  Oil and Oil Included in Imported Seed

Oil, Soybean Soybean Oil from Imported Seed Oil, Palm

Rapeseed Oil from Imported Seed Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Sunflowerseed

Other Oils

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 3: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

U.S. Soybean Sales and Exports Trend Higher in Markets Outside of China

U.S. soybean exports reached record territory in May and are expected to reach a record in June based on export inspections. This strong pace of trade reflects the strong pace of net sales to markets outside of China. Since late March, cumulative sales to these markets have approached 7 million tons, roughly 50 percent ahead of last year’s pace. In contrast, cumulative net sales to China over the same period have turned negative in recent weeks as recent cancelations have exceeded sales since the end of March. The strong demand for soybeans in markets outside China is being driven by the hefty discounts for U.S. soybeans relative to Brazil, a direct response to the recent 25-percent duty levied on U.S. soybeans entering China beginning July 6. This has resulted in U.S. soybeans being considerably more competitive to Brazilian and Argentine product and at prices considerably below levels seen in April, a relative bargain for importers. This trend is expected to continue into the foreseeable future as both strong demand by China and the duties imposed on U.S. imports help maintain price premiums for South American soybeans well into 2019.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Mar Apr May JunMillion Tons

Cumulative U.S. Soybean Exports

Avg 12‐16

2017

2018

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Million Tons

Week Ending Cumulative Sales

Cumulative U.S. Soybean Sales(Excluding China)

2018

2017

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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OVERVIEW SOYBEAN EXPORT PRICES U.S. export bids in June, FOB Gulf, averaged $365/ton, down $42 from May. In comparison, FOB Brazil Paranagua averaged $386/ton, down $20/ton from last month. FOB Argentina Up River averaged $382/ton, down $33 from last month. Prices in the United States have fallen sharply in anticipation of a 25-percent tariff duty on U.S. soybeans to China (enacted July 6) and continued uncertainty regarding its impact on trade.

 

320330340350360370380390400410420430440450

2/1/2017

16/1/2017

30/1/2017

13/2/2017

27/2/2017

13/3/2017

27/3/2017

10/4/2017

24/4/2017

8/5/2017

22/5/2017

5/6/2017

19/6/2017

3/7/2017

17/7/2017

31/7/2017

14/8/2017

28/8/2017

11/9/2017

25/9/2017

9/10/2017

23/10/2017

6/11/2017

20/11/2017

4/12/2017

18/12/2017

1/1/2018

15/1/2018

29/1/2018

12/2/2018

26/2/2018

12/3/2018

26/3/2018

9/4/2018

23/4/2018

7/5/2018

21/5/2018

4/6/2018

18/6/2018

2/7/2018

FOB ($/M

T)

Argentina (Up River) Brazil (Paranagua) U.S. (Gulf)

2018/19 Global oilseed production is forecast lower this month yet still record high at 592.9 million tons. Soybean production is projected up at 359.5 million tons as gains in Argentina, Brazil, China, and the United States more than offset a reduction for Canada. The rapeseed crop forecast is significantly lower this month on reductions for Australia, the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine. Forecast sunflowerseed production for Ukraine and Russia is significantly lower. The forecast for cottonseed production is raised on gains for Brazil and India. Global soybean imports are cut this month, driven by declines in China that more than offset gains in the rest of the world. Soybean exports are lowered with projected declines for the United States and Canada exceeding gains for Brazil. The global stocks forecast is significantly higher this month on larger supplies in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina. The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is projected down $0.75 at $9.25 per bushel. 2017/18 Global oilseed production is nearly unchanged this month at 572.9 million tons. Reduced soybean production for India is offset by gains for rapeseed in Australia and cottonseed in Brazil and India. Global soybean imports are up this month on larger shipments to Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Mexico, and Turkey. Exports are also higher with gains for the United States more than offsetting a lower forecast for Argentina. Global soybean ending stocks are significantly up this month as gains in Brazil, in response to an increase in production, and Argentina, due to a slower pace of domestic use, exceed a lower forecast for the United States. The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is down $0.05 at $9.35 per bushel.  

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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EXPORT SALES For the week ending July 5, U.S. 2017/18 soybean export commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 28.1 million tons compared to 36.1 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 57.5 million tons, compared to 60.0 million for the same period last year.

2018/19 OUTLOOK CHANGES

Country Commodity Attribute Previous Current Change Reason

United States

Oilseed, Soybean

Exports 62324 55520 -6804 Lower trade with China following 25% tariff on U.S. soybeans

Meal, Soybean Exports 11249 11884 998 Larger crush on good margins and improved competitiveness

Oil, Soybean Exports 953 998 45

Argentina

Meal, Soybean Exports 30500 29800 -700 Reduced supplies on smaller crush volume

Oilseed, Soybean

Imports 1850 2250 400 Expected stronger pace of trade with Paraguay

Australia Oilseed, Rapeseed

Exports 3100 2600 -500 Smaller supplies on a smaller crop projection

Bangladesh Oil, Palm Imports 1750 1650 -100 In line with previous year’s

reduction

Belarus Meal, Sunflowerseed

Imports 700 500 -200 Lower sunflowerseed meal exportable supplies in Ukraine and Russia

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Million Tons

China Unknown Rest of World

Old Crop Outstanding Sales, As of July 5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Million Tons

China Unknown Rest of World

New Crop Outstanding Sales, As of July 5

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 6: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Brazil

Oilseed, Soybean

Exports 72950 75000 2050 Larger supplies on larger crop projection

Oilseed, Soybean

Imports 225 425 200 Increased imports from U.S or Paraguay

Oilseed, Soybean Meal

Exports 15,500 15,000 500 Lower crush on expected reduced margins lowering exportable supplies

Canada

Oilseed, Soybean

Exports 5800 5500 -300 Smaller supplies on smaller crop projection

Oilseed, Soybean

Imports 480 580 100 Demand strength resulting from from smaller crop

Oilseed, Rapeseed

Exports 11500 11600 100 Strong demand from China

China

Oilseed, Soybean

Imports 10300 95000 -8000 Reduced import and crush forecast due to 25% tariff on U.S. soybeans

Meal, Soybean Exports 1000 900 -100 Strong domestic demand for protein feed and reduced crush forecast

Oil, Palm Imports 4950 5250 300

On reduced soybean crush and lower soybean oil output forecast

Oil, Rapeseed Imports 700 900 200

Oil, Soybean Imports 350 700 350

Oil, Sunflowerseed

Imports 900 700 -200 Lower sunflowerseed oil exportable supplies in Ukraine and Russia

Colombia Oil, Palm Exports 500 700 200 Larger supplies on larger crop

projection

Egypt

Oil, Palm Imports 1200 1300 100 Offsetting reduced sunflowerseed oil imports

Oil, Sunflowerseed

Imports 580 480 -100 Lower sunflowerseed oil exportable supplies in Ukraine and Russia

Oilseed, Soybean

Imports 2900 3150 250 Growing trend in crush on larger global soybean availability

European Union

Oilseed, Rapeseed

Import 4500 4200 -300 Lower exportable supplies in Australia

Oilseed, Soybean

Imports 14200 15300 1100 Stronger demand for soybean crush due to lower domestic rapeseed crop and smaller sunflowerseed meal supplies in Ukraine and Russia

Meal, Rapeseed Imports 200 300 100 Stronger import demand on lower domestic production

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 6 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 7: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Meal, Rapeseed Export 400 300 -100 Smaller domestic supplies on smaller crop projection

Meal, Soybean Imports 18500 18300 -200 Growing domestic soybean crush

Meal, Sunflowerseed

Import 4000 3500 -500 Lower sunflowerseed meal exportable supplies in Ukraine and Russia

Oil, Rapeseed Exports 350 250 -100 Smaller supplies on reduced crop projection

Oil, Soybean Exports 800 900 100 Growing domestic soybean crush

India

Oil, Sunflowerseed

Imports 2200 1800 -400 Lower exportable supplies in Ukraine and Russia

Oil, Palm Imports 11500 11600 100 Partially offseting lower sunflowerseed oil imports

Indonesia Oil, Palm Exports 29200 29500 300 Stronger demand for palm oil

due to lower sunflowerseed oil global supplies

Iran

Oilseed, Soybean

Imports 2270 2450 180 Growing trend in crush on larger global soybean availability

Meal, Soybean Imports 1450 1350 -100 Growing domestic crush

Iraq Oil, Sunflowerseed

Imports 570 470 -100 Lower sunflowerseed oil exportable supplies in Ukraine

Malaysia Oil, Palm Exports 17500 17700 200 Stronger demand for palm oil

due to lower sunflowerseed oil global supplies

Mexico

Oilseed, Soybean

Imports 4650 4750 100 Growing demand carried over from 2017/18

Oilseed, Rapeseed

Imports 1980 1555 -425 In line with previous year’s changes

Russia

Meal, Sunflowerseed

Exports 1250 1100 -150 Smaller supplies on reduced crop projection

Oil, Sunflowerseed

Exports 2200 2000 -200 Reduced supplies on smaller crop projection

Oilseed, Rapeseed

Exports 400 300 -100 Smaller supplies on reduced crop projection

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed

Exports 200 100 -100 Reduced supplies on smaller crop projection

Turkey Oilseed, Soybean

Imports 2500 2600 100 Growing trend in crush on larger global soybean availability

Ukraine

Meal, Sunflowerseed

Exports 5100 4350 -750 Reduced supplies on smaller crop projection

Oil, Sunflowerseed

Exports 5800 5150 -650 Smaller supplies on lower crop forecast

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 8: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Oilseed, Rapeseed

Exports 2150 2050 -100 Lower supplies on smaller crop projection

Vietnam Oilseed, Soybean

Imports 2000 2150 150 Growing trend in crush on larger soybean availability on the global market

Note: All figures are in thousand metric tons.

2017/18 OUTLOOK CHANGES

Country Commodity Attribute Previous Current Change Reason

United States

Oilseed, Soybean

Exports 56200 56744 544 Strong late season trade in response to competitive prices

Meal, Soybean Exports 11884 12247 363 Strong pace of trade

Argentina

Meal, Soybean Exports 28500 27650 -850 Smaller supplies on slower pace of crush

Oilseed, Soybean

Exports 3500 3100 -400 Weak pace of trade in response to tight supplies

Oilseed, Soybean

Imports 3350 3750 400 Strong pace of trade from Paraguay

Australia Oilseed, Rapeseed

Exports 2350 2650 300 Larger supplies on larger crop projection

Bangladesh Oil, Palm Imports 1600 1500 -100 Slower than expected pace of

trade

Brazil Meal, Soybean Exports 15600 15700 100 Strong pace of trade

Canada Oilseed, Rapeseed

Exports 11500 11000 -500 On stronger crush for meal and oil exports

China

Meal, Rapeseed Imports 1150 1250 100

On reduced domestic soybean crush and lower protein meal and vegetable oil output

Oilseed, Rapeseed

Imports 4550 4650 100

Meal, Soybean Exports 1000 900 -100

Meal, Soybean Imports 30 130 100

Oil, Palm Imports 4900 5050 150

Oil, Rapeseed Imports 700 900 200

Colombia Oil, Palm Exports 500 700 200 Larger supplies on larger crop

projection

Egypt Oilseed, Soybean

Imports 2800 3000 200 Stronger-than-expected pace of imports from the United States

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 8 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 9: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Meal, Soybean Imports 1100 900 -200 Slower-than-expected pace of imports from Argentina, as well as growing domestic crush from imported soybeans

Oil, Sunflowerseed

Imports 560 460 -100 Slower-than-expected pace of imports from Russia, as well as increased availability of soybean oil from growing domestic crush and stronger palm oil imports

European Union

Oilseed, Rapeseed

Imports 4350 4250 -100 Slower-than-expected pace of trade at the end of the marketing year (July-June)

India

Meal, Soybean Export 1500 1400 -100 Slower-than-expected pace of trade

Oil, Sunflowerseed

Import 1950 2100 150 Stronger-than-expected pace of trade

Iran

Oilseed, Soybean

Imports 2150 2300 150 Growing trend in crush and stronger-than-expected soybean imports

Meal, Soybean Imports 1370 1250 -120 On slower import pace and higher domestic soybean crush

Iraq Oil, Sunflowerseed

Imports 550 450 -100 On slower than expected pace of trade and demand growth

Mexico

Meal, Soybean Imports 2100 2000 -100 On slower import pace and higher domestic soybean crush

Oilseed, Soybean

Imports 4400 4600 200 Growing trend in crush and stronger-than-expected soybean imports

Oilseed, Rapeseed

Imports 1925 1525 -400 Slow pace of trade

Turkey

Meal, Palm Kernel

Imports 50 150 100 Stronger-than-expected pace of imports from Malaysia and Indonesia

Meal, Soybean Imports 670 500 -170 On slower import pace and raised domestic soybean crush

Oilseed, Soybean

Imports 2300 2600 300 Growing trend in crush and stronger-than-expected soybean imports

Ukraine Oil, Sunflowerseed

Exports 5300 5200 -100 Slower-than-expected pace of trade

Note: All figures are in thousand metric tons.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 9 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 10: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Questions may be directed to:

Bill George (202) 720-6234 [email protected] Agata Kingsbury (202) 260-8910 [email protected] To download the tables in the publication, go to the Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx), scroll down to Reports, and click the plus sign [+] next to Oilseeds. The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Markets and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx  Archives World Markets and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7  Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online):

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports):

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx  Export Sales Report:

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/  Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports):

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx  

Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/  Economic Research Service:

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops  National Agricultural Statistics Service:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/  

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 10 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 11: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

List of Tables SUMMARY TABLES

Table 01 Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Table 02 Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Table 03 Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Table 04 Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Table 05 Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Table 06 Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) COMMODITY TABLES

Table 07 Soybeans: World Supply and Distribution Table 08 Soybean Meal: World Supply and Distribution Table 09 Soybean Oil: World Supply and Distribution Table 10 Soybeans and Products: World Trade Table 11 Palm Oil: World Supply and Distribution Table 12 Rapeseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution Table 13 Sunflowerseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution Table 14 Minor Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution HISTORICAL TABLES

Table 15 World Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 16 World Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Table 17 World Rapeseed and Products Supply and Distribution Table 18 World Sunflowerseed and Products Supply and Distribution Table 19 World Palm Oil, Coconut Oil, and Fish Meal Supply and Distribution COUNTRY TABLES

Table 20 United States Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 21 United States Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 22 Brazil Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 23 Argentina Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 24 South East Asia Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 25 Middle East Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 26 European Union Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 27 China Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 28 India Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution PRICES

Table 29 Oilseed Prices Table 30 Protein Meal Prices Table 31 Vegetable Oil Prices

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 11 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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Table 01: Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View)

Million Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Jun

2018/19

Jul

2018/19

none

Production none

5.42 Oilseed, Copra 5.32 5.51 5.73 5.83 5.83

44.36 Oilseed, Cottonseed 35.78 39.09 45.04 44.16 44.15

16.57 Oilseed, Palm Kernel 15.96 17.36 18.68 19.19 19.21

42.13 Oilseed, Peanut 41.71 44.86 45.46 44.60 44.57

71.29 Oilseed, Rapeseed 69.81 71.33 74.75 75.08 72.44

319.96 Oilseed, Soybean 315.58 348.12 336.70 355.24 359.49

39.17 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 40.54 47.97 47.30 49.85 46.90

538.89 Total 524.69 574.23 573.67 593.94 592.59

none

Imports none

0.10 Oilseed, Copra 0.13 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.10

0.68 Oilseed, Cottonseed 0.68 0.97 0.94 0.88 0.88

0.07 Oilseed, Palm Kernel 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07

2.52 Oilseed, Peanut 3.31 3.12 3.17 3.30 3.27

14.32 Oilseed, Rapeseed 14.42 15.66 16.08 17.52 16.79

124.36 Oilseed, Soybean 133.34 144.32 154.28 159.37 154.36

1.56 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 1.87 2.18 2.22 2.09 2.09

143.60 Total 153.80 166.41 176.87 183.32 177.56

none

Exports none

0.11 Oilseed, Copra 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.14 0.14

0.72 Oilseed, Cottonseed 0.71 0.89 1.01 0.96 0.96

0.04 Oilseed, Palm Kernel 0.04 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.05

3.33 Oilseed, Peanut 3.54 3.74 3.69 3.66 3.66

15.11 Oilseed, Rapeseed 14.35 15.80 16.48 17.69 17.04

126.21 Oilseed, Soybean 132.52 147.35 152.24 162.37 157.32

1.66 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 2.01 2.44 2.41 2.23 2.13

147.17 Total 153.30 170.43 176.00 187.10 181.30

none

Crush none

5.38 Oilseed, Copra 5.30 5.45 5.70 5.78 5.78

33.79 Oilseed, Cottonseed 28.37 29.17 34.02 34.32 34.42

16.51 Oilseed, Palm Kernel 15.88 17.22 18.57 19.08 19.10

16.81 Oilseed, Peanut 16.93 18.34 18.53 18.75 18.75

67.40 Oilseed, Rapeseed 67.82 69.00 69.69 72.23 70.10

264.81 Oilseed, Soybean 275.02 287.35 296.29 313.47 309.31

35.62 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 36.64 43.03 43.76 45.94 43.19

440.33 Total 445.96 469.57 486.57 509.56 500.64

none

Ending Stocks none

0.10 Oilseed, Copra 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.07

1.66 Oilseed, Cottonseed 0.89 1.40 1.80 1.44 1.52

0.26 Oilseed, Palm Kernel 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.26

4.23 Oilseed, Peanut 3.55 3.55 3.65 2.87 2.77

7.55 Oilseed, Rapeseed 6.57 5.66 7.28 6.31 6.34

77.96 Oilseed, Soybean 80.45 96.67 96.02 87.02 98.27

2.90 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 2.65 3.37 2.82 2.72 2.47

94.66 Total 94.43 110.96 111.89 100.68 111.69

Totals may not add due to rounding

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 12 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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Table 02: Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View)

Million Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Jun

2018/19

Jul

2018/19

none

Production none

1.80 Meal, Copra 1.77 1.81 1.92 1.93 1.93

15.53 Meal, Cottonseed 13.07 13.44 15.69 15.80 15.85

4.69 Meal, Fish 4.51 4.88 4.63 4.60 4.60

8.60 Meal, Palm Kernel 8.31 8.94 9.67 9.91 9.92

6.68 Meal, Peanut 6.72 7.31 7.38 7.48 7.48

38.98 Meal, Rapeseed 39.35 39.90 40.33 41.80 40.59

208.52 Meal, Soybean 215.86 225.90 233.26 246.54 243.31

16.16 Meal, Sunflowerseed 16.50 19.33 19.79 20.65 19.51

300.95 Total 306.09 321.51 332.66 348.71 343.19

none

Imports none

0.67 Meal, Copra 0.56 0.47 0.51 0.51 0.51

0.25 Meal, Cottonseed 0.21 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23

2.50 Meal, Fish 2.46 3.06 2.44 2.45 2.45

6.83 Meal, Palm Kernel 6.41 7.58 7.66 7.68 7.71

0.03 Meal, Peanut 0.02 0.13 0.07 0.07 0.07

5.99 Meal, Rapeseed 5.70 5.89 6.09 6.01 6.11

60.69 Meal, Soybean 61.76 60.53 60.44 62.53 62.22

5.53 Meal, Sunflowerseed 5.95 6.95 7.21 7.59 6.57

82.49 Total 83.08 84.84 84.64 87.08 85.87

none

Exports none

0.73 Meal, Copra 0.59 0.48 0.59 0.60 0.60

0.32 Meal, Cottonseed 0.25 0.34 0.36 0.37 0.37

2.28 Meal, Fish 2.21 2.53 2.27 2.32 2.32

6.46 Meal, Palm Kernel 6.38 6.74 7.12 7.23 7.23

0.05 Meal, Peanut 0.05 0.16 0.10 0.09 0.09

6.07 Meal, Rapeseed 5.69 6.03 6.10 6.26 6.13

64.40 Meal, Soybean 65.50 64.48 64.18 65.82 65.15

5.87 Meal, Sunflowerseed 6.23 7.44 7.45 7.74 6.84

86.18 Total 86.91 88.19 88.17 90.42 88.72

none

Domestic Consumption none

1.72 Meal, Copra 1.73 1.78 1.80 1.83 1.83

15.47 Meal, Cottonseed 13.19 13.32 15.56 15.67 15.72

4.87 Meal, Fish 4.75 5.44 4.77 4.79 4.79

8.93 Meal, Palm Kernel 8.40 9.78 10.06 10.12 10.16

6.65 Meal, Peanut 6.66 7.31 7.35 7.46 7.46

38.85 Meal, Rapeseed 39.25 39.85 40.54 41.55 40.60

201.56 Meal, Soybean 212.99 222.03 230.78 243.42 240.32

15.58 Meal, Sunflowerseed 16.18 19.10 19.95 20.62 19.48

293.63 Total 303.14 318.60 330.80 345.47 340.36

none

Ending Stocks none

0.13 Meal, Copra 0.13 0.15 0.18 0.19 0.19

0.22 Meal, Cottonseed 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.08 0.09

0.26 Meal, Fish 0.27 0.25 0.27 0.22 0.22

0.64 Meal, Palm Kernel 0.58 0.58 0.73 0.97 0.97

0.03 Meal, Peanut 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

0.98 Meal, Rapeseed 1.10 1.00 0.78 0.82 0.76

14.09 Meal, Soybean 13.22 13.14 11.87 11.72 11.93

1.66 Meal, Sunflowerseed 1.69 1.43 1.04 0.93 0.80

17.99 Total 17.11 16.67 15.00 14.95 14.98

Totals may not add due to rounding

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 13 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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Table 03: Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View)

Million Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Jun

2018/19

Jul

2018/19

none

Production none

3.37 Oil, Coconut 3.32 3.39 3.54 3.60 3.60

5.12 Oil, Cottonseed 4.29 4.41 5.15 5.22 5.23

2.40 Oil, Olive 3.13 2.48 3.27 3.15 3.15

61.75 Oil, Palm 58.89 65.26 70.10 72.58 72.76

7.32 Oil, Palm Kernel 7.00 7.63 8.18 8.40 8.41

5.44 Oil, Peanut 5.48 5.94 6.00 6.08 6.08

27.53 Oil, Rapeseed 27.78 28.21 28.56 29.56 28.69

49.30 Oil, Soybean 51.53 53.79 55.26 58.38 57.68

14.96 Oil, Sunflowerseed 15.38 18.17 18.40 19.32 18.15

177.18 Total 176.79 189.27 198.46 206.28 203.74

none

Imports none

1.82 Oil, Coconut 1.61 1.50 1.49 1.47 1.46

0.07 Oil, Cottonseed 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

0.90 Oil, Olive 0.79 0.79 0.88 0.87 0.87

44.47 Oil, Palm 42.37 45.48 47.37 49.04 49.53

3.06 Oil, Palm Kernel 2.63 2.69 2.74 2.76 2.76

0.25 Oil, Peanut 0.25 0.23 0.24 0.23 0.23

3.95 Oil, Rapeseed 4.13 4.39 4.52 4.49 4.65

10.03 Oil, Soybean 11.64 10.84 10.05 10.68 10.87

6.18 Oil, Sunflowerseed 7.02 8.91 8.04 8.64 7.81

70.73 Total 70.49 74.87 75.36 78.22 78.22

none

Exports none

1.94 Oil, Coconut 1.58 1.73 1.69 1.69 1.69

0.14 Oil, Cottonseed 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.08 0.08

0.99 Oil, Olive 0.87 0.88 1.00 0.99 0.99

47.39 Oil, Palm 43.74 48.91 50.35 51.74 52.44

3.23 Oil, Palm Kernel 3.02 3.08 3.21 3.24 3.25

0.26 Oil, Peanut 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.28

4.07 Oil, Rapeseed 4.17 4.52 4.58 4.70 4.61

11.12 Oil, Soybean 11.77 11.25 10.69 11.19 11.33

7.38 Oil, Sunflowerseed 8.10 10.40 9.54 10.05 9.20

76.52 Total 73.58 81.12 81.42 83.97 83.88

none

Domestic Consumption none

3.29 Oil, Coconut 3.26 3.21 3.24 3.26 3.26

5.05 Oil, Cottonseed 4.40 4.38 5.06 5.18 5.21

2.65 Oil, Olive 2.81 2.59 2.86 3.00 3.05

58.21 Oil, Palm 58.90 61.52 65.25 68.07 68.67

7.21 Oil, Palm Kernel 6.81 7.16 7.54 7.86 7.87

5.43 Oil, Peanut 5.46 5.83 5.98 6.06 6.07

27.04 Oil, Rapeseed 28.30 29.10 29.19 29.49 29.18

47.78 Oil, Soybean 52.14 53.42 54.71 57.57 57.15

14.11 Oil, Sunflowerseed 15.22 16.65 16.92 17.76 17.02

170.78 Total 177.31 183.84 190.74 198.25 197.47

none

Ending Stocks none

0.29 Oil, Coconut 0.38 0.34 0.45 0.56 0.56

0.22 Oil, Cottonseed 0.10 0.10 0.15 0.13 0.13

0.31 Oil, Olive 0.53 0.34 0.63 0.66 0.61

10.24 Oil, Palm 8.86 9.17 11.04 12.59 12.23

0.87 Oil, Palm Kernel 0.68 0.75 0.92 0.97 0.97

0.24 Oil, Peanut 0.24 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.25

5.91 Oil, Rapeseed 5.35 4.32 3.63 3.59 3.18

4.31 Oil, Soybean 3.58 3.53 3.44 3.67 3.51

2.60 Oil, Sunflowerseed 1.68 1.71 1.68 1.62 1.41

25.00 Total 21.39 20.57 22.23 24.05 22.85

Totals may not add due to rounding

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 14 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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Table 04: Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Country View)

Million Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Jun

2018/19

Jul

2018/19

Production none

116.03 United States 115.88 126.94 131.03 127.29 127.83

100.15 Brazil 99.02 117.59 123.29 121.75 124.41

66.31 Argentina 63.10 60.17 41.63 60.91 61.91

57.66 China 54.45 56.53 60.32 60.05 60.45

32.28 India 29.37 37.26 34.06 36.52 36.61

166.47 Other 162.87 175.76 183.34 187.43 181.38

538.89 Total 524.69 574.23 573.67 593.94 592.59

Imports none

83.15 China 87.93 98.42 102.23 108.98 100.95

17.35 European Union 20.14 19.28 19.85 20.19 20.99

5.73 Mexico 5.82 6.03 6.56 7.00 6.67

5.70 Japan 5.78 5.79 5.96 6.01 6.06

1.67 Pakistan 2.62 2.79 3.26 3.51 3.56

2.51 Thailand 2.91 3.18 3.26 3.33 3.36

2.25 Indonesia 2.52 3.00 3.06 3.22 3.27

3.12 Turkey 2.98 3.01 3.30 3.14 3.24

2.01 Egypt 1.37 2.18 3.09 2.97 3.22

2.24 Russia 2.65 2.60 2.61 2.66 2.71

17.86 Other 19.08 20.15 23.71 22.32 23.53

143.60 Total 153.80 166.41 176.87 183.32 177.56

Exports none

50.85 Brazil 54.65 63.37 74.92 73.23 75.28

51.11 United States 53.97 60.08 58.00 63.46 56.66

13.01 Canada 14.55 15.64 16.53 17.33 17.13

11.56 Argentina 11.21 7.88 3.97 8.87 8.87

4.62 Paraguay 5.41 6.13 6.26 5.91 5.91

4.43 Ukraine 3.89 4.13 4.86 5.10 5.00

3.11 Uruguay 2.12 3.21 1.65 2.92 2.92

8.47 Other 7.50 9.99 9.82 10.29 9.54

147.17 Total 153.30 170.43 176.00 187.10 181.30

Crush none

112.09 China 117.80 124.52 131.50 141.78 136.28

55.11 United States 55.06 56.26 59.51 59.02 60.21

47.84 European Union 46.74 46.97 48.43 48.93 48.28

43.39 Argentina 46.37 46.72 43.03 47.87 46.87

42.94 Brazil 41.85 42.91 46.20 46.41 46.01

25.15 India 22.70 27.61 26.53 28.43 28.33

13.08 Russia 13.59 15.40 15.85 17.20 16.35

11.45 Ukraine 12.93 15.58 14.74 16.30 14.35

10.25 Indonesia 10.02 10.98 11.58 11.95 11.95

9.15 Canada 10.32 11.14 11.20 11.30 11.30

6.41 Mexico 6.49 6.73 7.34 7.89 7.59

5.96 Pakistan 5.58 5.88 6.60 7.20 7.20

5.56 Malaysia 5.21 5.38 5.89 5.99 5.99

4.66 Japan 4.73 4.86 4.83 4.83 4.88

4.30 Turkey 3.68 4.05 4.68 4.70 4.85

43.01 Other 42.91 44.59 48.68 49.78 50.23

440.33 Total 445.96 469.57 486.57 509.56 500.64

Ending Stocks none

33.42 Argentina 34.86 37.19 30.63 30.29 33.79

19.21 Brazil 18.66 26.57 25.16 23.14 24.85

18.60 China 18.32 21.93 24.71 20.46 20.36

6.76 United States 6.87 9.60 14.64 12.36 17.65

3.02 Canada 2.34 1.65 3.30 3.00 3.25

13.65 Other 13.38 14.03 13.46 11.43 11.80

94.66 Total 94.43 110.96 111.89 100.68 111.69

Major Oilseeds includes Copra, Cottonseed, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybeans and Sunflowerseeds.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 15 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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Table 05: Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Country View)

Million Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Jun

2018/19

Jul

2018/19

Production none

78.57 China 83.55 88.77 93.34 101.45 97.09

43.21 United States 42.78 43.11 46.20 45.60 46.49

32.29 Argentina 34.51 34.72 31.75 35.31 34.70

32.48 Brazil 31.74 32.84 34.92 35.06 34.66

30.63 European Union 30.16 30.17 31.08 31.38 31.21

83.78 Other 83.34 91.90 95.37 99.91 99.04

300.95 Total 306.09 321.51 332.66 348.71 343.19

Imports none

25.82 European Union 25.40 25.02 24.68 24.85 24.25

4.97 Vietnam 5.71 5.67 5.49 5.70 5.70

4.04 Indonesia 4.20 4.34 4.49 4.70 4.70

3.87 United States 4.08 3.92 3.79 3.79 3.79

3.65 Thailand 2.98 3.32 3.40 3.44 3.43

3.42 Korea, South 3.39 3.03 3.17 3.26 3.21

2.31 Japan 2.60 2.93 3.03 3.13 3.13

34.39 Other 34.72 36.60 36.60 38.21 37.66

82.49 Total 83.08 84.84 84.64 87.08 85.87

Exports none

29.19 Argentina 31.09 32.13 28.53 31.40 30.70

14.29 Brazil 15.41 13.76 15.70 15.50 15.00

12.14 United States 11.18 10.83 12.55 11.62 12.26

3.86 Canada 4.44 4.98 5.10 5.16 5.16

4.28 Indonesia 4.12 4.51 4.79 4.89 4.89

3.74 Ukraine 4.35 5.19 5.07 5.52 4.77

2.59 Paraguay 2.56 2.41 2.43 2.58 2.58

16.09 Other 13.77 14.38 13.99 13.74 13.36

86.18 Total 86.91 88.19 88.17 90.42 88.72

Domestic Consumption none

78.73 China 83.33 90.79 95.45 103.05 98.85

54.24 European Union 54.30 54.65 54.68 55.03 54.45

34.94 United States 35.69 36.08 37.42 37.77 38.02

16.88 Brazil 17.46 18.12 19.00 19.66 19.71

12.17 India 12.88 13.92 14.47 15.34 15.01

5.32 Russia 5.87 6.62 7.24 7.94 7.87

6.37 Mexico 6.97 7.06 7.27 7.71 7.52

5.85 Vietnam 6.47 6.84 7.07 7.24 7.29

5.54 Japan 5.87 6.29 6.41 6.46 6.49

5.32 Thailand 5.37 5.43 5.51 5.70 5.65

68.27 Other 68.93 72.81 76.29 79.57 79.51

293.63 Total 303.14 318.60 330.80 345.47 340.36

SME none

73.80 China 78.55 86.01 89.95 97.58 93.34

46.36 European Union 46.60 46.73 46.68 46.90 46.68

33.56 United States 34.28 34.65 36.08 36.37 36.63

16.64 Brazil 17.26 17.88 18.69 19.35 19.39

10.62 India 11.00 11.91 12.35 13.20 12.89

5.97 Mexico 6.57 6.66 6.86 7.22 7.10

5.63 Vietnam 6.23 6.55 6.79 6.96 7.01

75.22 Other 77.00 80.56 84.20 88.03 88.07

267.80 Total 277.50 290.95 301.60 315.61 311.12

Ending Stocks none

3.82 Brazil 2.72 3.71 3.96 3.99 3.94

4.26 Argentina 4.34 3.39 2.87 2.80 2.89

0.54 Indonesia 0.57 0.55 0.60 0.77 0.77

1.76 European Union 1.83 1.06 0.75 0.91 0.69

0.55 Malaysia 0.36 0.37 0.51 0.57 0.57

7.06 Other 7.30 7.59 6.32 5.91 6.13

17.99 Total 17.11 16.67 15.00 14.95 14.98

Major Protein Meals include Copra, Cottonseed, Fish, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybean, and Sunflower Meal.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 16 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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Table 06: Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Country View)

Million Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Jun

2018/19

Jul

2018/19

Production none

37.78 Indonesia 36.68 41.10 43.83 45.97 45.97

25.04 China 26.27 27.45 28.86 30.81 29.83

22.27 Malaysia 19.85 21.13 22.95 23.51 23.51

18.08 European Union 18.42 18.07 19.01 19.25 18.78

10.94 United States 11.21 11.43 11.97 11.93 12.15

8.97 Argentina 9.69 9.82 9.21 10.11 9.96

8.65 Brazil 8.46 8.82 9.37 9.43 9.35

45.46 Other 46.21 51.45 53.27 55.26 54.19

177.18 Total 176.79 189.27 198.46 206.28 203.74

Imports none

14.14 India 15.11 15.43 16.48 17.84 17.46

9.88 European Union 9.97 10.91 9.86 9.84 9.79

8.63 China 7.77 8.00 8.02 7.77 8.42

4.23 United States 4.53 4.73 5.06 5.12 5.12

2.98 Pakistan 2.91 3.28 3.23 3.36 3.36

1.79 Bangladesh 2.15 2.15 2.28 2.55 2.43

2.25 Egypt 2.04 2.16 1.96 2.08 2.08

0.87 Philippines 1.05 1.30 1.21 1.31 1.31

1.53 Turkey 1.41 1.50 1.25 1.30 1.30

1.14 Iran 0.99 1.27 1.19 1.25 1.24

23.30 Other 22.55 24.14 24.84 25.80 25.72

70.73 Total 70.49 74.87 75.36 78.22 78.22

Exports none

28.51 Indonesia 25.19 29.86 30.32 31.52 31.82

18.84 Malaysia 17.85 17.46 18.45 18.70 18.90

5.72 Argentina 6.41 6.28 5.56 6.18 6.18

4.12 Ukraine 4.81 6.11 5.44 6.03 5.38

2.54 Canada 2.93 3.32 3.34 3.26 3.31

2.23 Russia 2.23 2.98 3.10 3.18 2.96

2.48 European Union 2.48 2.42 2.31 2.47 2.51

12.08 Other 11.66 12.69 12.92 12.64 12.83

76.52 Total 73.58 81.12 81.42 83.97 83.88

Domestic Consumption none

33.66 China 34.88 36.10 37.23 38.53 38.31

25.81 European Union 26.06 26.39 26.32 26.52 26.36

19.88 India 21.02 22.17 23.30 24.67 24.46

13.68 United States 14.57 14.72 15.42 15.84 16.07

9.90 Indonesia 11.35 11.86 12.44 13.33 13.33

7.52 Brazil 7.54 7.92 8.36 8.49 8.54

4.56 Malaysia 4.53 4.29 4.81 5.16 5.16

4.15 Pakistan 4.25 4.45 4.67 4.87 4.87

3.11 Argentina 3.56 3.71 3.74 3.91 3.79

3.24 Russia 3.31 3.40 3.50 3.62 3.62

2.49 Thailand 2.44 2.77 3.09 3.26 3.26

2.56 Mexico 2.65 2.72 2.82 3.04 2.90

2.08 Bangladesh 2.37 2.49 2.64 2.93 2.80

2.48 Egypt 2.47 2.50 2.54 2.61 2.61

2.36 Japan 2.36 2.42 2.49 2.55 2.56

33.32 Other 33.95 35.93 37.39 38.91 38.82

170.78 Total 177.31 183.84 190.74 198.25 197.47

Ending Stocks none

3.02 Indonesia 3.20 2.63 3.74 4.90 4.60

3.00 Malaysia 1.83 2.29 3.25 4.09 3.89

5.20 China 4.25 3.44 2.88 2.71 2.60

1.86 European Union 1.70 1.86 2.10 2.25 1.80

1.93 India 1.73 1.90 1.63 1.61 1.59

10.00 Other 8.69 8.46 8.64 8.50 8.38

25.00 Total 21.39 20.57 22.23 24.05 22.85

Major Vegetable Oils includes Coconut, Cottonseed, Olive, Palm, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybean, and Sunflowerseed oil.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 17 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 18: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Table 07: Soybeans: World Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Jun

2018/19

Jul

2018/19

Production none

97,200 Brazil 96,500 114,600 119,500 118,000 120,500

106,878 United States 106,857 116,920 119,518 116,483 117,299

61,450 Argentina 58,800 55,000 37,000 56,000 57,000

12,154 China 11,785 12,900 14,200 14,100 14,500

8,711 India 6,929 10,992 8,350 10,800 10,800

8,154 Paraguay 9,217 10,200 10,000 9,800 9,800

6,045 Canada 6,456 6,597 8,000 7,800 7,300

19,365 Other 19,033 20,906 20,135 22,257 22,292

319,957 Total 315,577 348,115 336,703 355,240 359,491

Imports none

78,350 China 83,230 93,495 97,000 103,000 95,000

13,914 European Union 15,120 13,422 14,100 14,200 15,300

3,819 Mexico 4,126 4,126 4,600 4,650 4,750

3,004 Japan 3,186 3,175 3,250 3,250 3,300

2,411 Thailand 2,798 3,077 3,150 3,225 3,250

1,947 Egypt 1,300 2,115 3,000 2,900 3,150

2,006 Indonesia 2,274 2,649 2,700 2,850 2,900

2,197 Turkey 2,283 2,271 2,600 2,500 2,600

2,520 Taiwan 2,476 2,566 2,550 2,550 2,580

1,311 Iran 1,864 1,904 2,300 2,270 2,450

12,883 Other 14,681 15,523 19,027 17,974 19,079

124,362 Total 133,338 144,323 154,277 159,369 154,359

Exports none

50,612 Brazil 54,383 63,137 74,650 72,950 75,000

50,136 United States 52,870 58,960 56,744 62,324 55,520

10,575 Argentina 9,922 7,026 3,100 8,000 8,000

4,576 Paraguay 5,400 6,129 6,250 5,900 5,900

3,763 Canada 4,236 4,591 5,500 5,800 5,500

6,548 Other 5,705 7,502 5,993 7,399 7,399

126,210 Total 132,516 147,345 152,237 162,373 157,319

Crush none

74,500 China 81,500 88,000 92,000 102,000 96,500

50,975 United States 51,335 51,742 55,248 54,431 55,656

40,235 Argentina 43,267 43,303 39,150 44,000 43,000

40,435 Brazil 39,747 40,411 43,000 43,200 42,700

14,450 European Union 14,950 14,400 14,900 14,900 15,800

7,700 India 5,500 9,000 7,600 9,100 9,000

4,175 Mexico 4,400 4,600 5,000 5,050 5,200

3,600 Russia 4,000 4,400 4,650 5,100 5,100

3,700 Paraguay 3,800 3,750 3,700 3,950 3,950

1,950 Egypt 1,150 2,200 2,900 3,000 3,100

1,450 Iran 1,950 2,050 2,450 2,420 2,600

2,450 Bolivia 2,550 2,050 2,550 2,350 2,350

2,150 Japan 2,283 2,392 2,350 2,300 2,350

500 Pakistan 1,250 1,680 2,050 2,300 2,300

1,980 Taiwan 1,980 2,045 2,080 2,100 2,100

14,560 Other 15,362 15,323 16,666 17,272 17,604

264,810 Total 275,024 287,346 296,294 313,473 309,310

Ending Stocks none

31,750 Argentina 33,650 35,470 29,350 29,060 32,650

19,078 Brazil 18,558 26,462 25,000 23,000 24,650

17,009 China 16,910 20,391 23,441 19,191 19,191

5,188 United States 5,354 8,208 12,643 10,476 15,773

843 European Union 1,559 1,131 1,073 1,173 1,373

4,096 Other 4,414 5,003 4,515 4,121 4,629

77,964 Total 80,445 96,665 96,022 87,021 98,266

Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). The United States, Mexico, and Thailand are on a

September/August MY. Canada is on an August/July MY. Paraguay is on a Jan/Dec MY.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 18 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 19: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Table 08: Soybean Meal: World Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Jun

2018/19

Jul

2018/19

Production none

59,004 China 64,548 69,696 72,864 80,784 76,428

40,880 United States 40,525 40,630 43,816 43,046 43,953

31,300 Brazil 30,750 31,660 33,400 33,553 33,100

30,928 Argentina 33,211 33,280 30,100 33,660 33,050

11,416 European Union 11,811 11,376 11,771 11,771 12,482

6,160 India 4,400 7,200 6,080 7,280 7,200

3,300 Mexico 3,480 3,635 3,950 3,992 4,108

25,534 Other 27,136 28,418 31,279 32,455 32,992

208,522 Total 215,861 225,895 233,260 246,541 243,313

Imports none

19,623 European Union 19,207 18,924 18,500 18,500 18,300

4,311 Vietnam 5,094 4,945 4,800 5,000 5,000

3,902 Indonesia 4,103 4,245 4,400 4,600 4,600

3,068 Thailand 2,433 2,782 2,850 2,880 2,870

2,204 Philippines 2,618 2,660 2,750 2,850 2,850

1,795 Mexico 2,367 1,991 2,000 2,100 2,070

1,751 Korea, South 2,118 1,764 1,800 1,900 1,850

1,699 Japan 1,721 1,621 1,650 1,650 1,650

1,148 Colombia 1,206 1,284 1,425 1,500 1,500

1,465 Malaysia 1,291 1,427 1,525 1,500 1,500

19,719 Other 19,600 18,887 18,736 20,054 20,031

60,685 Total 61,758 60,530 60,436 62,534 62,221

Exports none

28,575 Argentina 30,333 31,323 27,650 30,500 29,800

14,290 Brazil 15,407 13,762 15,700 15,500 15,000

11,891 United States 10,844 10,505 12,247 11,249 11,884

2,569 Paraguay 2,552 2,407 2,430 2,580 2,580

1,674 Bolivia 1,726 1,264 1,690 1,550 1,550

5,405 Other 4,639 5,215 4,461 4,439 4,339

64,404 Total 65,501 64,476 64,178 65,818 65,153

Domestic Consumption none

57,467 China 62,663 68,646 72,094 79,814 75,558

29,282 United States 30,044 30,318 32,023 32,115 32,387

30,142 European Union 30,742 30,342 30,042 29,942 30,542

15,700 Brazil 16,470 16,943 17,480 18,150 18,150

4,750 Vietnam 5,470 5,740 5,990 6,120 6,170

5,050 Mexico 5,700 5,770 5,930 6,080 6,150

4,500 India 4,460 4,857 5,050 5,900 5,625

4,000 Indonesia 4,100 4,254 4,450 4,600 4,600

4,100 Thailand 4,230 4,232 4,300 4,450 4,400

2,700 Russia 3,100 3,250 3,600 4,000 4,030

3,365 Japan 3,458 3,420 3,463 3,390 3,420

2,650 Egypt 2,850 2,980 3,175 3,350 3,400

3,000 Iran 3,080 3,180 3,280 3,380 3,380

2,402 Argentina 2,672 2,853 3,000 3,200 3,200

2,400 Philippines 2,600 2,720 2,850 2,950 2,950

30,053 Other 31,350 32,525 34,053 35,983 36,362

201,561 Total 212,989 222,030 230,780 243,424 240,324

Ending Stocks none

3,812 Brazil 2,710 3,700 3,950 3,983 3,930

4,025 Argentina 4,231 3,335 2,785 2,745 2,835

236 United States 239 363 363 272 363

553 India 129 475 120 142 305

208 Turkey 190 255 223 248 268

5,254 Other 5,718 5,008 4,433 4,328 4,230

14,088 Total 13,217 13,136 11,874 11,718 11,931

Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). The Mexico and Thailand are on a September/August MY.

Canada is on an August/July MY. Paraguay, Vietnam and the Philippines are on a January/December MY and Bolivia is on a

March/February MY.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 19 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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Table 09: Soybean Oil: World Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Jun

2018/19

Jul

2018/19

Production none

13,347 China 14,605 15,770 16,486 18,278 17,293

9,706 United States 9,956 10,035 10,632 10,478 10,714

7,687 Argentina 8,433 8,395 7,600 8,510 8,360

7,759 Brazil 7,627 7,850 8,250 8,290 8,195

2,746 European Union 2,841 2,736 2,831 2,831 3,002

1,386 India 990 1,620 1,368 1,635 1,620

745 Mexico 785 820 892 902 930

5,925 Other 6,292 6,563 7,202 7,452 7,570

49,301 Total 51,529 53,789 55,261 58,376 57,684

Imports none

2,815 India 4,269 3,534 3,300 3,650 3,600

508 Bangladesh 639 830 780 800 780

631 Algeria 732 667 720 760 760

773 China 586 711 450 350 700

432 Morocco 465 497 500 515 515

395 Peru 382 449 400 435 435

304 Colombia 372 352 355 375 375

480 Egypt 674 246 250 300 300

257 Korea, South 250 306 285 310 300

421 Iran 299 257 250 295 270

3,018 Other 2,970 2,991 2,756 2,891 2,830

10,034 Total 11,638 10,840 10,046 10,681 10,865

Exports none

5,094 Argentina 5,698 5,387 4,675 5,325 5,325

1,510 Brazil 1,550 1,241 1,425 1,325 1,275

914 United States 1,017 1,159 1,111 953 998

1,010 European Union 915 831 775 800 935

699 Paraguay 709 680 670 710 710

423 Russia 431 529 550 600 600

392 Bolivia 444 236 380 340 340

1,073 Other 1,005 1,191 1,104 1,133 1,143

11,115 Total 11,769 11,254 10,690 11,186 11,326

Domestic Consumption none

14,200 China 15,350 16,350 16,850 18,450 17,830

8,600 United States 9,145 9,010 9,390 9,661 9,888

6,265 Brazil 6,330 6,610 6,895 6,980 7,020

4,100 India 5,250 5,200 4,850 5,100 5,100

2,401 Argentina 2,840 2,985 3,005 3,168 3,043

2,040 European Union 2,285 2,205 2,225 2,245 2,255

961 Mexico 1,020 1,050 1,080 1,125 1,160

668 Bangladesh 785 1,005 990 1,029 1,000

752 Egypt 960 610 750 800 800

640 Algeria 700 710 710 750 750

660 Iran 680 700 710 720 720

242 Pakistan 415 470 490 525 525

450 Morocco 480 470 495 515 515

435 Korea, South 440 460 470 495 495

385 Colombia 425 440 450 460 460

4,976 Other 5,030 5,148 5,346 5,544 5,590

47,775 Total 52,135 53,423 54,706 57,567 57,151

Ending Stocks none

841 United States 765 776 1,050 987 1,014

778 China 523 536 472 568 485

471 India 477 430 246 428 361

198 European Union 164 149 225 286 237

385 Brazil 197 256 246 241 206

1,640 Other 1,450 1,381 1,200 1,164 1,208

4,313 Total 3,576 3,528 3,439 3,674 3,511

Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). Mexico is on a September/August MY. Paraguay and Peru are

on an January/December MY and Bolivia is on a March/February MY.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 20 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 21: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Table 10: Soybeans and Products: World Trade

Thousand Metric Tons

Marketing Year

Meal, Soybean Oil, Soybean Oilseed, Soybean

2018/192017/182016/172018/192017/182016/172018/192017/182016/17

Exports

North America 10,810 12,561 12,199 1,358 1,275 1,152 63,551 62,244 61,020

Canada (Aug-Jul) 292 300 300 175 160 150 4,591 5,500 5,500

United States (Sep-Aug) 10,505 12,247 11,884 1,159 1,111 998 58,960 56,744 55,520

South America 48,766 47,481 48,950 7,555 7,162 7,662 79,527 85,677 91,853

Argentina (Oct-Sep) 31,323 27,650 29,800 5,387 4,675 5,325 7,026 3,100 8,000

Brazil (Oct-Sep) 13,762 15,700 15,000 1,241 1,425 1,275 63,137 74,650 75,000

Paraguay (Jan-Dec) 2,407 2,430 2,580 680 670 710 6,129 6,250 5,900

South Asia 2,021 1,407 1,408 1 2 5 269 250 300

India (Oct-Sep) 2,008 1,400 1,400 1 2 5 269 250 300

Other 2,879 2,729 2,596 2,340 2,251 2,507 3,998 4,066 4,146

World Total 64,476 64,178 65,153 11,254 10,690 11,326 147,345 152,237 157,319

Imports

European Union (Oct-Sep) 18,924 18,500 18,300 285 245 200 13,422 14,100 15,300

East Asia 3,502 3,648 3,607 1,145 857 1,133 100,525 104,132 102,282

China (Oct-Sep) 61 130 30 711 450 700 93,495 97,000 95,000

Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,621 1,650 1,650 5 5 5 3,175 3,250 3,300

Korea, South (Oct-Sep) 1,764 1,800 1,850 306 285 300 1,286 1,330 1,400

Taiwan (Oct-Sep) 33 38 42 0 0 0 2,566 2,550 2,580

Southeast Asia 16,085 16,351 16,846 273 266 288 8,409 8,770 9,431

Indonesia (Oct-Sep) 4,245 4,400 4,600 23 23 23 2,649 2,700 2,900

Malaysia (Oct-Sep) 1,427 1,525 1,500 138 120 120 768 850 880

Philippines (Jan-Dec) 2,660 2,750 2,850 56 45 47 249 200 230

Thailand (Sep-Aug) 2,782 2,850 2,870 8 8 8 3,077 3,150 3,250

Vietnam (Jan-Dec) 4,945 4,800 5,000 30 50 70 1,646 1,850 2,150

North America 3,129 3,354 3,368 423 343 391 5,218 5,679 6,010

Canada (Aug-Jul) 821 900 980 23 25 25 486 480 580

Mexico (Sep-Aug) 1,991 2,000 2,070 255 175 230 4,126 4,600 4,750

South America 4,878 5,160 5,451 1,251 1,189 1,279 3,053 5,085 3,855

Brazil (Oct-Sep) 35 30 30 60 60 60 252 225 425

Colombia (Oct-Sep) 1,284 1,425 1,500 352 355 375 561 550 575

Central America 1,165 1,218 1,258 177 166 170 341 354 373

Caribbean 1,007 1,052 1,098 344 320 331 147 148 153

Middle East 4,950 4,200 4,915 345 368 385 5,222 6,065 6,270

Iran (Oct-Sep) 1,507 1,250 1,350 257 250 270 1,904 2,300 2,450

Israel (Oct-Sep) 154 165 200 10 10 10 374 425 430

Syria (Jan-Dec) 20 25 35 0 1 1 3 15 15

Turkey (Oct-Sep) 790 500 700 0 0 0 2,271 2,600 2,600

North Africa 3,135 3,050 3,185 1,560 1,610 1,705 2,653 3,720 3,955

Egypt (Oct-Sep) 1,053 900 950 246 250 300 2,115 3,000 3,150

Other 3,755 3,903 4,193 5,037 4,682 4,983 5,333 6,224 6,730

World Total 60,530 60,436 62,221 10,840 10,046 10,865 144,323 154,277 154,359

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 21 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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Table 11: Palm Oil: World Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Jun

2018/19

Jul

2018/19

Production none

33,000 Indonesia 32,000 36,000 38,500 40,500 40,500

19,879 Malaysia 17,700 18,858 20,500 21,000 21,000

2,068 Thailand 1,804 2,500 2,700 2,900 2,900

1,110 Colombia 1,275 1,147 1,628 1,350 1,530

910 Nigeria 970 970 970 970 970

4,783 Other 5,141 5,780 5,801 5,859 5,859

61,750 Total 58,890 65,255 70,099 72,579 72,759

Imports none

9,139 India 8,860 9,341 10,600 11,500 11,600

6,935 European Union 6,636 7,224 6,500 6,500 6,500

5,696 China 4,689 4,881 5,050 4,950 5,250

2,826 Pakistan 2,720 3,075 3,100 3,250 3,250

1,280 Bangladesh 1,511 1,314 1,500 1,750 1,650

1,143 United States 1,307 1,367 1,680 1,600 1,600

1,489 Egypt 1,038 1,323 1,250 1,200 1,300

792 Philippines 941 1,165 1,100 1,200 1,200

854 Russia 933 849 950 900 950

715 Vietnam 727 792 820 840 840

13,602 Other 13,008 14,152 14,817 15,348 15,388

44,471 Total 42,370 45,483 47,367 49,038 49,528

Exports none

25,964 Indonesia 22,906 27,633 28,000 29,200 29,500

17,378 Malaysia 16,621 16,301 17,250 17,500 17,700

453 Guatemala 614 718 710 712 712

316 Colombia 420 502 700 500 700

607 Papua New Guinea 575 663 635 640 640

2,671 Other 2,606 3,090 3,053 3,188 3,185

47,389 Total 43,742 48,907 50,348 51,740 52,437

Domestic Consumption none

9,150 India 9,100 9,550 10,800 11,720 11,820

7,520 Indonesia 8,870 9,070 9,450 10,130 10,130

6,900 European Union 6,600 6,800 6,550 6,450 6,450

5,700 China 4,800 4,830 4,900 4,900 5,250

2,941 Malaysia 2,990 2,685 3,117 3,425 3,425

2,738 Pakistan 2,795 2,995 3,145 3,245 3,245

1,925 Thailand 1,835 2,172 2,440 2,590 2,590

1,275 Bangladesh 1,411 1,314 1,470 1,725 1,625

1,092 United States 1,269 1,355 1,662 1,580 1,580

811 Philippines 930 1,225 1,250 1,320 1,320

1,350 Egypt 1,100 1,300 1,280 1,200 1,300

1,410 Nigeria 1,320 1,240 1,260 1,290 1,290

943 Colombia 940 952 1,018 985 1,028

810 Russia 850 850 900 870 920

674 Vietnam 755 806 827 837 837

12,967 Other 13,334 14,372 15,176 15,805 15,856

58,206 Total 58,899 61,516 65,245 68,072 68,666

Ending Stocks none

2,734 Indonesia 2,958 2,260 3,310 4,480 4,180

2,641 Malaysia 1,546 2,016 2,899 3,674 3,474

539 India 499 490 490 470 470

335 Thailand 293 323 348 373 373

456 European Union 344 630 440 350 350

3,532 Other 3,216 3,452 3,557 3,240 3,381

10,237 Total 8,856 9,171 11,044 12,587 12,228

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 22 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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Table 12: Rapeseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

Marketing Year

Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Rapeseed Oilseed, Rapeseed

2018/192017/182016/172018/192017/182016/172018/192017/182016/17

Production

China (Oct-Sep) 10,771 11,128 11,307 7,059 7,293 7,410 14,546 14,400 14,200

India (Oct-Sep) 3,460 3,050 3,250 2,200 1,950 2,070 7,091 5,850 6,500

Canada (Aug-Jul) 5,200 5,220 5,285 4,020 4,040 4,085 19,599 21,500 21,100

Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,355 1,360 1,390 1,061 1,075 1,095 4 4 4

European Union (Jul-Jun) 13,908 14,022 13,652 10,199 10,283 10,011 20,545 22,166 20,200

Other 5,206 5,551 5,706 3,667 3,914 4,016 9,547 10,834 10,432

World Total 39,900 40,331 40,590 28,206 28,555 28,687 71,332 74,754 72,436

Imports

China (Oct-Sep) 875 1,250 1,000 802 900 900 4,260 4,650 5,300

India (Oct-Sep) 0 0 0 317 370 350 0 0 0

Canada (Aug-Jul) 25 23 25 54 25 30 95 96 100

Japan (Oct-Sep) 8 7 7 15 18 10 2,392 2,450 2,500

European Union (Jul-Jun) 219 225 300 153 160 150 4,224 4,250 4,200

Other 4,762 4,584 4,781 3,046 3,042 3,211 4,688 4,635 4,690

World Total 5,889 6,089 6,113 4,387 4,515 4,651 15,659 16,081 16,790

Exports

China (Oct-Sep) 12 15 15 18 20 20 0 0 0

India (Oct-Sep) 414 400 450 3 3 3 0 0 0

Canada (Aug-Jul) 4,681 4,800 4,850 3,133 3,170 3,150 11,022 11,000 11,600

Japan (Oct-Sep) 7 5 5 1 1 1 0 0 0

European Union (Jul-Jun) 511 450 300 344 260 250 319 130 150

Other 408 434 506 1,025 1,123 1,190 4,458 5,348 5,290

World Total 6,033 6,104 6,126 4,524 4,577 4,614 15,799 16,478 17,040

Domestic Consumption

China (Oct-Sep) 11,634 12,363 12,292 8,700 8,800 8,550 18,700 19,300 19,600

India (Oct-Sep) 2,890 2,800 2,800 2,480 2,405 2,430 6,850 6,070 6,500

Canada (Aug-Jul) 539 470 465 956 975 1,015 9,340 9,298 9,400

Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,377 1,372 1,400 1,078 1,081 1,102 2,442 2,455 2,505

European Union (Jul-Jun) 13,850 13,850 13,650 10,150 10,125 10,025 25,350 25,580 24,940

Other 9,562 9,681 9,991 5,731 5,800 6,053 9,424 10,031 10,182

World Total 39,852 40,536 40,598 29,095 29,186 29,175 72,106 72,734 73,127

Ending Stocks

China (Oct-Sep) 0 0 0 2,676 2,049 1,789 1,346 1,096 996

India (Oct-Sep) 401 251 251 331 243 230 710 490 490

Canada (Aug-Jul) 102 75 70 485 405 355 1,348 2,646 2,846

Japan (Oct-Sep) 59 49 41 27 38 40 21 20 19

European Union (Jul-Jun) 274 221 223 383 441 327 985 1,691 1,001

Other 163 183 173 421 454 438 1,249 1,339 989

World Total 999 779 758 4,323 3,630 3,179 5,659 7,282 6,341

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 23 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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Table 13: Sunflowerseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

Marketing Year

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Meal, Sunflowerseed Oil, Sunflowerseed

2018/192017/182016/172018/192017/182016/172018/192017/182016/17

Production

Argentina (Mar-Feb) 3,550 3,500 3,500 1,270 1,452 1,452 1,288 1,465 1,465

Russia (Sep-Aug) 10,858 10,362 10,500 4,146 4,105 4,105 4,171 4,130 4,130

Turkey (Sep-Aug) 1,320 1,550 1,580 963 1,100 1,100 761 890 890

Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 15,200 13,700 13,500 6,030 5,658 5,493 6,351 5,891 5,719

European Union (Oct-Sep) 8,598 9,679 9,100 4,266 4,644 4,428 3,338 3,634 3,465

Other 8,442 8,513 8,724 2,654 2,827 2,935 2,256 2,391 2,479

World Total 47,968 47,304 46,904 19,329 19,786 19,513 18,165 18,401 18,148

Imports

Argentina (Mar-Feb) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Russia (Sep-Aug) 107 50 50 11 40 20 18 30 20

Turkey (Sep-Aug) 591 650 600 958 935 930 793 515 500

Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 24 25 20 1 7 0 0 2 2

European Union (Oct-Sep) 697 535 500 3,708 3,800 3,500 1,834 1,500 1,500

Other 757 956 920 2,269 2,427 2,118 6,267 5,995 5,784

World Total 2,176 2,216 2,090 6,947 7,209 6,568 8,912 8,042 7,806

Exports

Argentina (Mar-Feb) 75 75 75 789 825 850 770 765 735

Russia (Sep-Aug) 368 110 100 1,300 1,300 1,100 2,178 2,200 2,000

Turkey (Sep-Aug) 47 60 60 4 5 5 635 390 350

Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 191 50 50 4,807 4,650 4,350 5,851 5,200 5,150

European Union (Oct-Sep) 353 575 350 275 395 300 459 480 490

Other 1,406 1,544 1,496 261 270 234 509 507 477

World Total 2,440 2,414 2,131 7,436 7,445 6,839 10,402 9,542 9,202

Domestic Consumption

Argentina (Mar-Feb) 3,130 3,560 3,556 540 600 620 707 712 727

Russia (Sep-Aug) 10,580 10,460 10,460 2,850 2,950 3,100 2,055 2,070 2,145

Turkey (Sep-Aug) 1,862 2,122 2,132 1,850 2,050 2,050 980 1,020 1,030

Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 14,780 13,890 13,500 1,300 1,200 1,250 600 615 630

European Union (Oct-Sep) 8,990 9,695 9,300 7,860 8,160 7,630 4,560 4,540 4,590

Other 7,645 7,934 8,266 4,701 4,987 4,827 7,743 7,966 7,901

World Total 46,987 47,661 47,214 19,101 19,947 19,477 16,645 16,923 17,023

Ending Stocks

Argentina (Mar-Feb) 1,241 1,106 975 45 72 54 26 14 17

Russia (Sep-Aug) 344 186 176 352 247 172 234 124 129

Turkey (Sep-Aug) 49 67 55 150 130 105 31 26 36

Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 421 206 176 434 249 142 105 183 124

European Union (Oct-Sep) 600 544 494 328 217 215 311 425 310

Other 716 707 589 124 121 113 999 912 797

World Total 3,371 2,816 2,465 1,433 1,036 801 1,706 1,684 1,413

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 24 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 25: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Table 14: Minor Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

Marketing Year

Oil, Peanut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive

2018/192017/182016/172018/192017/182016/172018/192017/182016/17

Production

China (Oct-Sep) 2,896 3,008 3,064 1,115 1,382 1,339 5 5 5

India (Oct-Sep) 1,238 1,188 1,200 1,160 1,320 1,320 nr nr nr

Turkey (Nov-Oct) 7 7 7 187 232 250 177 280 250

United States (Aug-Jul) 129 110 123 246 252 268 15 16 16

European Union (Oct-Sep) 13 13 13 35 44 44 1,745 2,200 2,240

Other 1,659 1,675 1,673 1,671 1,922 2,011 540 767 636

World Total 5,942 6,001 6,080 4,414 5,152 5,232 2,482 3,268 3,147

Imports

China (Oct-Sep) 111 110 110 0 0 0 44 46 48

India (Oct-Sep) 0 0 0 0 0 0 nr nr nr

Turkey (Nov-Oct) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

United States (Aug-Jul) 18 32 27 0 2 2 316 322 330

European Union (Oct-Sep) 73 70 70 1 1 1 110 180 150

Other 24 23 23 45 44 42 318 328 346

World Total 226 235 230 46 47 45 788 876 874

Exports

China (Oct-Sep) 8 8 8 2 5 5 0 0 0

India (Oct-Sep) 13 15 15 0 0 0 nr nr nr

Turkey (Nov-Oct) 0 0 0 1 2 2 48 60 90

United States (Aug-Jul) 5 7 5 47 50 45 12 12 10

European Union (Oct-Sep) 4 5 5 0 0 0 627 630 670

Other 235 249 249 23 32 32 193 298 221

World Total 265 284 282 73 89 84 880 1,000 991

Domestic Consumption

China (Oct-Sep) 2,999 3,110 3,166 1,113 1,377 1,334 49 51 53

India (Oct-Sep) 1,165 1,198 1,210 1,165 1,295 1,335 nr nr nr

Turkey (Nov-Oct) 7 7 7 185 234 246 145 160 165

United States (Aug-Jul) 139 136 145 198 201 225 319 326 336

European Union (Oct-Sep) 80 77 77 36 45 45 1,370 1,570 1,720

Other 1,439 1,453 1,461 1,687 1,908 2,028 702 748 771

World Total 5,829 5,981 6,066 4,384 5,060 5,213 2,585 2,855 3,045

Ending Stocks

China (Oct-Sep) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

India (Oct-Sep) 212 187 162 32 57 42 nr nr nr

Turkey (Nov-Oct) 0 0 0 5 1 3 23 83 78

United States (Aug-Jul) 12 11 11 20 23 23 0 0 0

European Union (Oct-Sep) 5 6 7 0 0 0 173 353 353

Other 88 84 70 47 73 66 141 190 180

World Total 317 288 250 104 154 134 337 626 611

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 25 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 26: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Table 15: World Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution

Million Metric Tons

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Total

Supply

Exports Food Use

Dom.

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Major Oilseeds

393.92 31.7175.60528.8675.4159.53220.64 2005/06 386.90 66.35

405.69 31.4882.89552.8780.8366.35223.39 2006/07 394.62 75.37

391.40 31.7091.76557.2290.4575.37219.53 2007/08 402.62 62.84

398.83 33.6094.15556.2294.5562.84230.41 2008/09 404.80 57.27

447.32 34.79107.61607.19102.6057.27235.76 2009/10 425.38 74.20

460.97 36.32108.32640.21105.0374.20245.60 2010/11 446.97 84.92

447.40 36.47110.98645.46113.1584.92248.93 2011/12 466.96 67.52

475.67 36.66118.12657.97114.7867.52256.89 2012/13 470.61 69.24

504.75 37.62133.77707.55133.5669.24260.94 2013/14 494.34 79.45

538.89 38.81147.17761.94143.6079.45267.06 2014/15 520.10 94.66

524.69 39.79153.30773.15153.8094.66264.81 2015/16 525.42 94.43

574.23 41.88170.43835.07166.4194.43266.80 2016/17 553.68 110.96

573.67 43.37176.00861.50176.87110.96277.53 2017/18 573.61 111.89

592.59 44.67181.30882.04177.56111.89284.53 2018/19 589.05 111.69

Major Protein Meals

217.20 0.2867.35291.1065.688.21nr 2005/06 214.86 8.89

224.21 0.2869.25300.4067.308.89nr 2006/07 220.84 10.32

231.64 0.2972.93312.3970.4310.32nr 2007/08 229.08 10.38

229.93 0.3270.15308.7568.4410.38nr 2008/09 230.05 8.55

244.39 0.4072.70323.3970.448.55nr 2009/10 240.46 10.23

257.51 0.3377.90342.8675.1310.23nr 2010/11 252.02 12.94

267.76 0.4081.12359.9179.2112.94nr 2011/12 264.16 14.63

269.71 0.4379.38359.1074.7614.63nr 2012/13 266.93 12.79

283.25 0.4483.31376.4080.3612.79nr 2013/14 278.73 14.37

300.95 0.4586.18397.8182.4914.37nr 2014/15 293.63 17.99

306.09 0.4886.91407.1683.0817.99nr 2015/16 303.14 17.11

321.51 0.5988.19423.4684.8417.11nr 2016/17 318.60 16.67

332.66 0.6688.17433.9784.6416.67nr 2017/18 330.80 15.00

343.19 0.6888.72444.0685.8715.00nr 2018/19 340.36 14.98

Major Vegetable Oils

119.85 94.0248.51175.8243.5312.4513.61 2005/06 113.19 14.12

122.75 96.4050.29183.5946.7314.1214.20 2006/07 118.69 14.62

129.72 99.4854.45194.4350.0814.6214.73 2007/08 125.05 14.93

134.93 103.2056.64203.5553.7014.9315.61 2008/09 131.15 15.76

142.38 107.2958.81213.5455.3915.7616.46 2009/10 137.97 16.76

149.14 109.9160.77222.7056.8016.7617.50 2010/11 142.56 19.38

158.29 116.0864.85239.4461.7819.3818.47 2011/12 151.86 22.74

161.58 121.5568.34249.5565.2322.7419.12 2012/13 158.93 22.28

171.90 126.0570.26261.1166.9422.2819.98 2013/14 166.47 24.38

177.18 131.0276.52272.2970.7324.3820.81 2014/15 170.78 25.00

176.79 135.3473.58272.2870.4925.0021.72 2015/16 177.31 21.39

189.27 140.3681.12285.5474.8721.3922.38 2016/17 183.84 20.57

198.46 145.2181.42294.4075.3620.5723.20 2017/18 190.74 22.23

203.74 150.3183.88304.2078.2222.2323.64 2018/19 197.47 22.85

Based on the aggregate of different marketing years

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 26 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 27: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Table 16: World Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution

Million Metric Tons

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Total

Supply

Exports Crush Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Oilseed, Soybean

220.78 186.3563.64333.4564.1048.5693.03 2005/06 215.94 53.87

235.70 195.5570.91358.6169.0553.8794.92 2006/07 224.68 63.03

219.15 202.6378.70360.8678.6863.0391.05 2007/08 229.85 52.32

212.06 194.7976.71342.2777.9052.3296.46 2008/09 222.64 42.92

260.73 210.3192.06391.1687.5142.92102.59 2009/10 238.99 60.11

264.39 222.2291.57414.2989.7960.11103.43 2010/11 252.79 69.93

240.38 229.0891.77404.8694.5569.93102.90 2011/12 259.31 53.77

268.47 231.74100.36419.4497.2053.77110.02 2012/13 263.13 55.94

282.71 242.78112.72451.72113.0755.94112.63 2013/14 276.53 62.47

319.96 264.81126.21506.79124.3662.47118.39 2014/15 302.62 77.96

315.58 275.02132.52526.88133.3477.96120.14 2015/16 313.92 80.45

348.12 287.35147.35572.88144.3280.45118.88 2016/17 328.87 96.67

336.70 296.29152.24587.65154.2896.67124.05 2017/18 339.39 96.02

359.49 309.31157.32609.87154.3696.02130.08 2018/19 354.29 98.27

Meal, Soybean

146.73 186.3753.03204.0551.385.94nr 2005/06 144.88 6.14

153.81 195.5754.84212.6952.746.14nr 2006/07 150.41 7.43

159.01 202.6556.50221.2254.787.43nr 2007/08 156.97 7.75

153.00 194.8753.27212.4251.677.75nr 2008/09 153.84 5.31

165.62 210.3955.94224.4753.545.31nr 2009/10 161.58 6.96

175.03 222.3158.89238.8556.876.96nr 2010/11 170.65 9.31

180.86 229.1958.71247.1957.029.31nr 2011/12 177.72 10.76

182.19 231.8858.39247.0254.0710.76nr 2012/13 178.79 9.84

190.39 242.9460.65258.0057.779.84nr 2013/14 186.50 10.85

208.52 265.0064.40280.0560.6910.85nr 2014/15 201.56 14.09

215.86 275.2665.50291.7161.7614.09nr 2015/16 212.99 13.22

225.90 287.6564.48299.6460.5313.22nr 2016/17 222.03 13.14

233.26 296.7364.18306.8360.4413.14nr 2017/18 230.78 11.87

243.31 309.8865.15317.4162.2211.87nr 2018/19 240.32 11.93

Oil, Soybean

34.91 186.359.7947.018.803.30nr 2005/06 33.40 3.82

36.41 195.5510.5050.009.773.82nr 2006/07 35.45 4.05

37.79 202.6310.8852.1310.294.05nr 2007/08 37.28 3.97

36.12 194.799.2149.109.003.97nr 2008/09 36.32 3.57

38.92 210.319.1950.978.483.57nr 2009/10 38.15 3.64

41.46 222.229.6254.489.383.64nr 2010/11 40.49 4.37

42.80 229.088.5355.178.004.37nr 2011/12 42.46 4.19

43.32 231.749.3356.028.514.19nr 2012/13 42.58 4.11

45.22 242.789.4258.609.274.11nr 2013/14 45.31 3.87

49.30 264.8111.1263.2010.033.87nr 2014/15 47.78 4.31

51.53 275.0211.7767.4811.644.31nr 2015/16 52.14 3.58

53.79 287.3511.2568.2110.843.58nr 2016/17 53.42 3.53

55.26 296.2910.6968.8410.053.53nr 2017/18 54.71 3.44

57.68 309.3111.3371.9910.873.44nr 2018/19 57.15 3.51

Based on the aggregate of different marketing years, primarily October through September.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 27 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 28: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Table 17: World Rapeseed and Products Supply and Distribution

Million Metric Tons

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Total

Supply

Exports Food Use

Dom.

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Oilseed, Rapeseed

48.84 0.356.9860.676.715.1327.32 2005/06 48.06 5.63

45.75 0.356.6558.417.025.6326.76 2006/07 46.57 5.20

48.34 0.358.1861.107.575.2028.65 2007/08 49.20 3.72

57.87 0.4012.2073.7312.153.7230.96 2008/09 54.70 6.83

60.91 0.4210.9078.5510.816.8330.76 2009/10 59.62 8.03

60.82 0.4510.9379.0310.188.0333.63 2010/11 59.96 8.14

61.52 0.4512.9982.9013.248.1433.45 2011/12 63.64 6.27

63.91 0.4712.5783.0112.836.2736.03 2012/13 65.54 4.90

71.53 0.4915.1091.9815.554.9036.01 2013/14 69.37 7.51

71.29 0.5515.1193.1114.327.5135.48 2014/15 70.46 7.55

69.81 0.6514.3591.7814.427.5533.82 2015/16 70.86 6.57

71.33 0.7015.8093.5615.666.5734.09 2016/17 72.11 5.66

74.75 0.6016.4896.4916.085.6635.76 2017/18 72.73 7.28

72.44 0.6517.0496.5116.797.2836.34 2018/19 73.13 6.34

Meal, Rapeseed

26.15 0.002.6829.502.630.71nr 2005/06 25.99 0.83

25.55 0.003.0029.603.210.83nr 2006/07 25.85 0.75

27.22 0.003.9331.853.880.75nr 2007/08 27.27 0.64

30.27 0.003.7534.693.770.64nr 2008/09 30.14 0.80

32.95 0.003.6337.643.880.80nr 2009/10 32.76 1.25

33.56 0.005.2840.145.331.25nr 2010/11 33.81 1.06

35.18 0.005.5641.805.561.06nr 2011/12 35.13 1.10

36.41 0.005.7043.125.611.10nr 2012/13 36.44 0.98

38.71 0.006.3546.196.500.98nr 2013/14 38.91 0.92

38.98 0.006.0745.905.990.92nr 2014/15 38.85 0.98

39.35 0.005.6946.035.700.98nr 2015/16 39.25 1.10

39.90 0.006.0346.885.891.10nr 2016/17 39.85 1.00

40.33 0.006.1047.426.091.00nr 2017/18 40.54 0.78

40.59 0.006.1347.486.110.78nr 2018/19 40.60 0.76

Oil, Rapeseed

17.99 13.721.6520.261.480.79nr 2005/06 17.61 1.00

17.79 13.222.0021.002.211.00nr 2006/07 18.19 0.81

18.95 13.521.9121.812.050.81nr 2007/08 18.80 1.10

21.16 14.412.4724.742.481.10nr 2008/09 20.99 1.28

23.21 15.232.7527.452.961.28nr 2009/10 22.75 1.95

23.47 15.863.4328.803.381.95nr 2010/11 23.40 1.97

24.84 16.483.9830.884.081.97nr 2011/12 23.85 3.05

25.62 16.973.9532.603.933.05nr 2012/13 24.23 4.43

27.21 18.173.8335.453.824.43nr 2013/14 26.08 5.54

27.53 18.884.0737.023.955.54nr 2014/15 27.04 5.91

27.78 19.944.1737.824.135.91nr 2015/16 28.30 5.35

28.21 20.534.5237.944.395.35nr 2016/17 29.10 4.32

28.56 20.544.5837.394.524.32nr 2017/18 29.19 3.63

28.69 20.514.6136.974.653.63nr 2018/19 29.18 3.18

Based on the aggregate of different marketing years.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 28 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 29: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Table 18: World Sunflower and Products Supply and Distribution

Million Metric Tons

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Exports Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed

29.92 3.4829.311.521.422.9622.72 2005/06

30.08 4.0229.441.911.813.4823.45 2006/07

27.35 3.7227.481.461.294.0221.34 2007/08

32.92 3.8532.562.151.923.7223.89 2008/09

31.56 2.6032.831.551.563.8522.97 2009/10

32.70 2.2632.881.781.622.6023.08 2010/11

38.62 2.5438.111.931.702.2624.62 2011/12

34.99 2.8134.631.451.362.5423.60 2012/13

41.51 3.3040.691.961.622.8124.02 2013/14

39.17 2.9039.481.661.563.3023.10 2014/15

40.54 2.6540.642.011.872.9023.40 2015/16

47.97 3.3746.992.442.182.6525.41 2016/17

47.30 2.8247.662.412.223.3725.57 2017/18

46.90 2.4747.212.132.092.8226.24 2018/19

Meal, Sunflowerseed

11.72 0.3111.413.573.350.22nr 2005/06

11.87 0.2411.903.493.440.31nr 2006/07

11.11 0.3010.693.312.960.24nr 2007/08

13.08 0.8112.474.304.200.30nr 2008/09

13.42 1.0012.834.093.690.81nr 2009/10

13.31 1.0712.724.574.061.00nr 2010/11

15.60 1.7014.606.806.421.07nr 2011/12

14.15 0.7914.845.134.931.70nr 2012/13

16.83 1.4215.756.225.760.79nr 2013/14

16.16 1.6615.585.875.531.42nr 2014/15

16.50 1.6916.186.235.951.66nr 2015/16

19.33 1.4319.107.446.951.69nr 2016/17

19.79 1.0419.957.457.211.43nr 2017/18

19.51 0.8019.486.846.571.04nr 2018/19

Oil, Sunflowerseed

10.56 1.219.773.923.311.02nr 2005/06

10.74 1.2010.164.053.461.21nr 2006/07

10.16 1.209.413.532.781.20nr 2007/08

11.89 1.9410.754.554.151.20nr 2008/09

12.12 1.9011.464.503.811.94nr 2009/10

12.08 1.8311.324.543.701.90nr 2010/11

14.35 3.0312.496.485.831.83nr 2011/12

12.86 2.3013.195.575.163.03nr 2012/13

15.63 2.9614.147.786.962.30nr 2013/14

14.96 2.6014.117.386.182.96nr 2014/15

15.38 1.6815.228.107.022.60nr 2015/16

18.17 1.7116.6510.408.911.68nr 2016/17

18.40 1.6816.929.548.041.71nr 2017/18

18.15 1.4117.029.207.811.68nr 2018/19

Based on the aggregate of different marketing years, primarily September through August.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 29 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 30: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Table 19: World Palm Oil, Coconut Oil, and Fish Meal Supply and Distribution

Million Metric Tons

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Total

Supply

Exports Industrial

Dom.

Food Use

Dom.

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Oil, Palm

25.22 24.996.9427.8965.8836.034.62 2005/06 32.47 5.51

26.25 26.837.5728.3969.3837.625.51 2006/07 34.90 6.10

29.93 29.598.8532.4977.4741.456.10 2007/08 39.01 5.97

33.08 31.989.6335.0083.5544.495.97 2008/09 42.26 6.28

34.31 33.3010.0636.3286.9746.386.28 2009/10 43.96 6.69

35.09 33.9710.7337.3690.9949.216.69 2010/11 45.27 8.35

38.39 36.8412.4739.8999.2952.558.35 2011/12 49.95 9.46

41.80 40.1514.5543.08107.6356.379.46 2012/13 55.35 9.20

41.64 40.8415.8143.23110.1359.289.20 2013/14 57.29 9.61

44.47 43.0714.4347.39115.8361.759.61 2014/15 58.21 10.24

42.37 42.3115.8943.74111.5058.8910.24 2015/16 58.90 8.86

45.48 44.4616.3448.91119.5965.268.86 2016/17 61.52 9.17

47.37 47.1917.2950.35126.6470.109.17 2017/18 65.25 11.04

49.53 49.8218.0552.44133.3372.7611.04 2018/19 68.67 12.23

Oil, Coconut

2.04 1.781.432.055.853.340.47 2005/06 3.35 0.44

1.88 1.661.431.745.393.070.44 2006/07 3.18 0.47

1.91 1.771.511.935.783.400.47 2007/08 3.31 0.55

1.67 1.651.561.485.583.360.55 2008/09 3.24 0.86

2.30 2.091.702.076.633.470.86 2009/10 3.82 0.74

1.80 1.871.671.806.133.590.74 2010/11 3.58 0.76

1.84 1.931.551.865.983.390.76 2011/12 3.51 0.61

1.89 2.001.711.926.133.620.61 2012/13 3.75 0.46

1.74 1.751.551.925.583.380.46 2013/14 3.34 0.33

1.82 1.741.521.945.523.370.33 2014/15 3.29 0.29

1.61 1.691.551.585.223.320.29 2015/16 3.26 0.38

1.50 1.611.561.735.273.390.38 2016/17 3.21 0.34

1.49 1.621.591.695.373.540.34 2017/18 3.24 0.45

1.46 1.621.611.695.503.600.45 2018/19 3.26 0.56

Meal, Fish

3.05 0.000.052.808.754.990.71 2005/06 5.21 0.73

2.82 0.000.052.658.695.140.73 2006/07 5.08 0.97

3.17 0.000.052.949.275.140.97 2007/08 5.50 0.83

3.26 0.000.053.089.295.200.83 2008/09 5.51 0.71

2.76 0.000.052.417.714.240.71 2009/10 5.03 0.28

2.77 0.000.052.698.605.550.28 2010/11 5.22 0.69

3.05 0.000.052.808.444.710.69 2011/12 5.36 0.28

2.47 0.000.052.327.594.840.28 2012/13 4.81 0.45

2.74 0.000.052.477.644.450.45 2013/14 4.94 0.23

2.50 0.000.052.287.424.690.23 2014/15 4.87 0.26

2.46 0.000.052.217.244.510.26 2015/16 4.75 0.27

3.06 0.000.052.538.224.880.27 2016/17 5.44 0.25

2.44 0.000.052.277.314.630.25 2017/18 4.77 0.27

2.45 0.000.052.327.334.600.27 2018/19 4.79 0.22

Based on the aggregate of different marketing years.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 30 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 31: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Table 20: United States Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Year

Thousand Metric Tons

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Total

Supply

Exports Crush Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Major Oilseeds

95,671 51,89726,611104,6246648,28936,587 2005/06 63,812 14,201

96,843 53,48331,647112,0771,03314,20136,962 2006/07 63,407 17,023

82,453 53,49533,045100,7411,26517,02331,970 2007/08 60,787 6,909

89,201 49,34235,69497,4051,2956,90935,265 2008/09 56,091 5,620

98,951 51,48341,691105,6371,0665,62035,511 2009/10 58,402 5,544

100,432 49,32341,938106,9219455,54437,179 2010/11 57,664 7,319

92,442 50,31637,813101,0461,2857,31935,131 2011/12 57,621 5,612

93,323 50,25037,156100,5401,6055,61236,676 2012/13 57,621 5,763

99,016 51,45945,569107,8463,0675,76335,438 2013/14 58,324 3,953

116,029 55,11151,109121,8331,8513,95338,983 2014/15 63,968 6,756

115,879 55,05553,969123,7651,1306,75638,398 2015/16 62,928 6,868

126,935 56,25760,081135,3051,5026,86839,245 2016/17 65,625 9,599

131,033 59,50957,995142,0481,4169,59942,797 2017/18 69,413 14,640

127,832 60,20756,657143,8871,41514,64042,191 2018/19 69,585 17,645

Major Protein Meals

39,894 51,8977,60841,7721,663215nr 2005/06 33,803 361

41,390 53,4838,26443,4601,709361nr 2006/07 34,811 385

40,786 53,4958,70643,1631,992385nr 2007/08 34,123 334

37,631 49,3427,94039,7821,817334nr 2008/09 31,596 246

39,992 51,48310,30841,5821,344246nr 2009/10 30,933 341

38,032 49,3238,48840,6142,241341nr 2010/11 31,748 378

39,450 50,3169,17042,8603,032378nr 2011/12 33,354 336

38,593 50,25010,46142,3223,393336nr 2012/13 31,546 315

39,293 51,45910,80343,4063,798315nr 2013/14 32,311 292

43,210 55,11112,14447,3753,873292nr 2014/15 34,941 290

42,778 55,05511,17947,1464,078290nr 2015/16 35,692 275

43,111 56,25710,82647,3103,924275nr 2016/17 36,077 407

46,200 59,50912,55450,3923,785407nr 2017/18 37,419 419

46,491 60,20712,25750,6993,789419nr 2018/19 38,023 419

Major Vegetable Oils

10,435 51,89789913,9382,3791,1240 2005/06 11,242 1,797

10,450 53,4831,33314,7742,5271,7970 2006/07 11,700 1,741

10,544 53,4951,67915,3943,1091,7410 2007/08 12,251 1,464

9,667 49,3421,45714,3613,2301,4640 2008/09 11,167 1,737

10,058 51,4831,94815,1333,3381,7370 2009/10 11,194 1,991

9,775 49,3231,86115,3783,6121,9910 2010/11 11,794 1,723

10,032 50,3161,14615,5863,8311,7230 2011/12 12,873 1,567

10,231 50,2501,38715,5993,8011,5670 2012/13 13,068 1,144

10,427 51,4591,11615,5874,0161,1440 2013/14 13,499 972

10,938 55,1111,17416,1404,2309720 2014/15 13,680 1,286

11,211 55,0551,24817,0244,5271,2860 2015/16 14,574 1,202

11,434 56,2571,41517,3674,7311,2020 2016/17 14,720 1,232

11,970 59,5091,35718,2575,0551,2320 2017/18 15,420 1,480

12,152 60,2071,24618,7495,1171,4800 2018/19 16,071 1,432

Based on the aggregate of different marketing years

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 31 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 32: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Table 21: United States Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years

Thousand Metric Tons

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Total

Supply

Exports Crush Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Oilseed, Soybean

83,507 47,32425,57990,559926,96028,834 2005/06 52,751 12,229

87,001 49,19830,38699,47624612,22930,190 2006/07 53,473 15,617

72,859 49,08131,53888,74526915,61725,959 2007/08 51,627 5,580

80,749 45,23034,81786,6903615,58030,222 2008/09 48,112 3,761

91,470 47,67340,79895,6283973,76130,907 2009/10 50,724 4,106

90,663 44,85140,95995,1623934,10631,003 2010/11 48,351 5,852

84,291 46,34837,18690,5824395,85229,856 2011/12 48,786 4,610

82,791 45,96736,12988,5041,1034,61030,814 2012/13 48,550 3,825

91,389 47,19244,59497,1671,9533,82530,858 2013/14 50,069 2,504

106,878 50,97550,136110,2869042,50433,423 2014/15 54,962 5,188

106,857 51,33552,870112,6866415,18833,076 2015/16 54,462 5,354

116,920 51,74258,960122,8806065,35433,466 2016/17 55,712 8,208

119,518 55,24856,744128,3255998,20836,228 2017/18 58,938 12,643

117,299 55,65655,520130,62268012,64335,961 2018/19 59,329 15,773

Meal, Soybean

37,416 47,3247,30137,700128156nr 2005/06 30,114 285

39,037 49,1987,98739,464142285nr 2006/07 31,166 311

38,359 49,0818,38438,798128311nr 2007/08 30,147 267

35,473 45,2307,70835,82080267nr 2008/09 27,899 213

37,836 47,67310,12538,194145213nr 2009/10 27,795 274

35,608 44,8518,23836,045163274nr 2010/11 27,489 318

37,217 46,3488,84537,731196318nr 2011/12 28,614 272

36,174 45,96710,11136,668222272nr 2012/13 26,307 250

36,909 47,19210,50437,506347250nr 2013/14 26,775 227

40,880 50,97511,89141,409302227nr 2014/15 29,282 236

40,525 51,33510,84441,127366236nr 2015/16 30,044 239

40,630 51,74210,50541,186317239nr 2016/17 30,318 363

43,816 55,24812,24744,633454363nr 2017/18 32,023 363

43,953 55,65611,88444,634318363nr 2018/19 32,387 363

Oil, Soybean

9,248 47,32452310,03516771nr 2005/06 8,147 1,365

9,294 49,19885110,676171,365nr 2006/07 8,426 1,399

9,335 49,0811,32010,764301,399nr 2007/08 8,317 1,127

8,503 45,2309959,671411,127nr 2008/09 7,378 1,298

8,897 47,6731,52410,242471,298nr 2009/10 7,173 1,545

8,568 44,8511,46610,185721,545nr 2010/11 7,506 1,213

8,954 46,34866410,235681,213nr 2011/12 8,396 1,175

8,990 45,96798110,254891,175nr 2012/13 8,522 751

9,131 47,1928529,95775751nr 2013/14 8,576 529

9,706 50,97591410,355120529nr 2014/15 8,600 841

9,956 51,3351,01710,927130841nr 2015/16 9,145 765

10,035 51,7421,15910,945145765nr 2016/17 9,010 776

10,632 55,2481,11111,551143776nr 2017/18 9,390 1,050

10,714 55,65699811,9001361,050nr 2018/19 9,888 1,014

Data based on Local Marketing Year (MY). Soybeans are on a September/August MY, and Soybean

Meal and Oil are on an October/September MY.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 32 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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Table 22: Brazil Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years

Thousand Metric Tons

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Total

Supply

Exports Crush Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Oilseed, Soybean (Local)

57,000 28,75624,77059,728402,68822,229 2005/06 31,506 3,452

59,000 31,51123,80562,5601083,45220,700 2006/07 34,261 4,494

61,000 31,89524,51565,577834,49421,300 2007/08 34,695 6,367

57,800 30,77928,04164,2911246,36721,700 2008/09 33,579 2,671

69,000 35,70029,18871,8211502,67123,500 2009/10 38,550 4,083

75,300 37,26433,78979,423404,08324,200 2010/11 40,164 5,470

66,500 36,23031,90572,2682985,47025,000 2011/12 39,130 1,233

82,000 36,43242,82683,4732401,23327,700 2012/13 39,378 1,269

86,700 38,19545,74788,5485791,26930,100 2013/14 41,345 1,456

97,200 40,33954,63598,9853291,45632,100 2014/15 43,550 800

96,500 39,96752,10097,66236280033,300 2015/16 43,332 2,230

114,600 42,31268,807117,0972672,23033,900 2016/17 45,715 2,575

119,500 43,20073,200122,5004252,57535,100 2017/18 46,750 2,550

120,500 42,70074,400123,2752252,55037,500 2018/19 46,290 2,585

Meal, Soybean (Local)

22,280 28,75612,28723,230214736nr 2005/06 10,080 863

24,420 31,51112,34625,429146863nr 2006/07 10,800 2,283

24,720 31,89512,70927,1461432,283nr 2007/08 12,300 2,137

23,850 30,77912,15326,073862,137nr 2008/09 12,800 1,120

27,670 35,70014,14728,862721,120nr 2009/10 13,187 1,528

28,880 37,26414,45230,459511,528nr 2010/11 13,400 2,607

28,080 36,23013,85430,702152,607nr 2011/12 14,000 2,848

28,230 36,43213,61931,108302,848nr 2012/13 14,800 2,689

29,560 38,19513,72132,276272,689nr 2013/14 15,100 3,455

31,220 40,33915,10634,691163,455nr 2014/15 15,800 3,785

30,980 39,96714,65134,792273,785nr 2015/16 16,600 3,541

33,520 42,31213,91537,096353,541nr 2016/17 17,761 5,420

33,400 43,20015,95038,850305,420nr 2017/18 18,100 4,800

33,100 42,70015,10037,930304,800nr 2018/19 18,700 4,130

Oil, Soybean (Local)

5,520 28,7562,3155,79818260nr 2005/06 3,211 272

6,050 31,5112,5216,38462272nr 2006/07 3,505 358

6,120 31,8952,1986,4879358nr 2007/08 4,005 284

5,910 30,7791,4966,23541284nr 2008/09 4,395 344

6,850 35,7001,6327,1962344nr 2009/10 5,060 504

7,150 37,2641,7587,6540504nr 2010/11 5,305 591

6,950 36,2301,6887,5432591nr 2011/12 5,395 460

6,990 36,4321,4107,4544460nr 2012/13 5,528 516

7,330 38,1951,3267,8460516nr 2013/14 5,955 565

7,740 40,3391,6508,31611565nr 2014/15 6,220 446

7,675 39,9671,2508,19675446nr 2015/16 6,485 461

8,310 42,3121,3238,83160461nr 2016/17 6,887 621

8,250 43,2001,4508,93160621nr 2017/18 6,940 541

8,195 42,7001,2758,79660541nr 2018/19 7,060 461

Data based on Brazil's local February/January Marketing Year (MY).

Where February 2012 - January 2013 is the 2011/12 MY.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 33 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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Table 23: Argentina Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years

Thousand Metric Tons

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Productio

n

Imports Total

Supply

Exports Crush Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Oilseed, Soybean (Local)

40,500 32,7487,13242,0681,01355515,200 2005/06 34,268 668

48,800 35,96312,13351,8042,33666816,300 2006/07 37,593 2,078

46,200 31,88311,80351,2252,9472,07816,371 2007/08 33,608 5,814

32,000 28,5553,48637,9711575,81416,000 2008/09 30,405 4,080

54,500 39,19613,70158,58004,08018,600 2009/10 41,196 3,683

49,000 37,52110,38952,696133,68318,300 2010/11 39,821 2,486

40,100 30,6816,09842,58822,48617,577 2011/12 33,431 3,059

49,300 35,0097,81752,36123,05919,750 2012/13 38,209 6,335

53,400 38,5037,43459,73726,33519,250 2013/14 42,089 10,214

61,450 45,11011,67071,80514110,21419,350 2014/15 49,285 10,850

58,800 43,0419,04670,9541,30410,85019,350 2015/16 47,491 14,417

55,000 40,9307,24572,0172,60014,41717,400 2016/17 45,540 19,232

37,000 39,7002,90059,7323,50019,23216,800 2017/18 44,410 12,422

57,000 44,0009,25071,2721,85012,42219,000 2018/19 48,997 13,025

Meal, Soybean (Local)

25,582 32,74824,72326,78501,203nr 2005/06 535 1,527

27,857 35,96328,10829,38621,527nr 2006/07 544 734

24,839 31,88324,38925,5763734nr 2007/08 652 535

22,519 28,55521,30323,0584535nr 2008/09 750 1,005

30,493 39,19628,38431,49801,005nr 2009/10 850 2,264

29,181 37,52127,48531,44502,264nr 2010/11 1,085 2,875

23,946 30,68121,97326,82102,875nr 2011/12 1,550 3,298

27,150 35,00923,93730,44803,298nr 2012/13 1,950 4,561

29,528 38,50327,47334,08904,561nr 2013/14 2,200 4,416

34,737 45,11031,86739,15414,416nr 2014/15 2,530 4,757

33,102 43,04130,98037,85904,757nr 2015/16 2,760 4,119

31,235 40,93029,26535,35404,119nr 2016/17 2,930 3,159

30,500 39,70027,55033,65903,159nr 2017/18 3,100 3,009

33,800 44,00030,35036,80903,009nr 2018/19 3,304 3,155

Oil, Soybean (Local)

6,169 32,7485,6676,5540385nr 2005/06 402 485

6,917 35,9636,5157,4020485nr 2006/07 675 212

6,037 31,8834,9876,2490212nr 2007/08 1,125 137

5,448 28,5553,7095,5850137nr 2008/09 1,716 160

7,460 39,1965,1807,6200160nr 2009/10 2,215 225

7,148 37,5214,2277,3730225nr 2010/11 2,755 391

5,840 30,6813,4336,26635391nr 2011/12 2,550 283

6,616 35,0094,2816,95859283nr 2012/13 2,375 302

7,191 38,5034,2967,51926302nr 2013/14 2,843 380

8,753 45,1106,3129,1385380nr 2014/15 2,308 518

8,382 43,0415,3868,9000518nr 2015/16 3,055 459

7,925 40,9304,7258,3840459nr 2016/17 3,345 314

7,660 39,7004,7607,9740314nr 2017/18 3,009 205

8,500 44,0005,4508,7050205nr 2018/19 3,050 205

Data based on Argentina's Local April/March Marketing Year (MY).

Where April 2012 - March 2013 is the 2011/12 MY.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 34 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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Table 24: South East Asia Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Jun

2018/19

Jul

2018/19

none

Production none

4,175 Oilseed, Copra 4,054 4,243 4,426 4,506 4,506

14,403 Oilseed, Palm Kernel 13,705 15,058 16,250 16,800 16,800

995 Oilseed, Soybean 947 885 846 821 821

3,811 Other 3,705 3,707 3,674 3,644 3,644

23,384 Total 22,411 23,893 25,196 25,771 25,771

none

Domestic Consumption none

847 Meal, Fish 795 926 904 921 921

745 Meal, Rapeseed 407 358 420 450 450

16,946 Meal, Soybean 18,207 18,760 19,459 20,060 20,060

2,995 Other 3,121 3,512 3,502 3,591 3,589

21,533 Total 22,530 23,556 24,285 25,022 25,020

none

SME none

1,228 Meal, Fish 1,152 1,340 1,306 1,331 1,331

530 Meal, Rapeseed 290 255 299 320 320

16,896 Meal, Soybean 18,137 18,670 19,349 19,940 19,940

1,557 Other 1,620 1,777 1,772 1,809 1,809

20,211 Total 21,199 22,041 22,726 23,400 23,400

none

Imports none

236 Meal, Fish 278 351 345 352 352

658 Meal, Rapeseed 369 343 405 430 430

14,972 Meal, Soybean 15,561 16,085 16,351 16,856 16,846

563 Other 684 739 654 657 655

16,429 Total 16,892 17,518 17,755 18,295 18,283

none

Industrial Dom. Cons. none

5,518 Oil, Palm 6,826 6,831 7,640 8,270 8,270

0 Oil, Rapeseed 0 0 0 0 0

39 Oil, Soybean 42 46 45 47 47

0 Oil, Sunflowerseed 0 0 0 0 0

4,014 Other 3,988 4,215 4,530 4,747 4,747

9,571 Total 10,856 11,092 12,215 13,064 13,064

none

Food Use Dom. Cons. none

9,053 Oil, Palm 9,231 9,781 10,055 10,630 10,630

54 Oil, Rapeseed 26 32 26 28 28

574 Oil, Soybean 652 690 750 785 795

131 Oil, Sunflowerseed 131 131 131 131 131

1,385 Other 1,436 1,540 1,577 1,647 1,647

11,197 Total 11,476 12,174 12,539 13,221 13,231

none

Domestic Consumption none

14,984 Oil, Palm 16,463 17,024 18,159 19,402 19,402

54 Oil, Rapeseed 26 32 26 28 28

613 Oil, Soybean 694 736 795 832 842

131 Oil, Sunflowerseed 131 131 131 131 131

5,409 Other 5,434 5,765 6,117 6,404 6,404

21,191 Total 22,748 23,688 25,228 26,797 26,807

none

Imports none

3,762 Oil, Palm 3,600 3,708 3,785 3,895 3,895

13 Oil, Rapeseed 13 13 13 13 13

321 Oil, Soybean 290 273 266 288 288

0 Oil, Sunflowerseed 0 0 0 0 0

671 Other 567 508 527 487 487

4,767 Total 4,470 4,502 4,591 4,683 4,683

Southeast Asia includes Brunei, Burma, Cambonia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

SME - 44 Percent Protein Soybean Meal Equivalent

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 35 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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Table 25: Middle East Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Jun

2018/19

Jul

2018/19

none

Production none

1,243 Oilseed, Cottonseed 1,032 1,228 1,447 1,543 1,543

256 Oilseed, Rapeseed 254 263 200 225 225

280 Oilseed, Soybean 242 246 252 247 257

1,232 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 1,147 1,376 1,609 1,639 1,639

124 Other 148 164 165 154 154

3,135 Total 2,823 3,277 3,673 3,808 3,818

none

Domestic Consumption none

85 Meal, Fish 110 121 125 125 125

838 Meal, Rapeseed 840 865 784 796 796

7,065 Meal, Soybean 7,426 7,944 8,228 8,778 8,853

2,925 Other 2,893 3,364 3,793 3,905 3,775

10,913 Total 11,269 12,294 12,930 13,604 13,549

none

SME none

123 Meal, Fish 159 175 181 181 181

596 Meal, Rapeseed 598 615 558 566 566

7,063 Meal, Soybean 7,424 7,942 8,226 8,776 8,851

1,972 Other 1,927 2,247 2,526 2,614 2,527

9,754 Total 10,108 10,979 11,490 12,137 12,125

none

Imports none

79 Meal, Fish 108 124 120 120 120

217 Meal, Rapeseed 196 183 177 183 183

4,319 Meal, Soybean 4,103 4,950 4,200 5,010 4,915

1,419 Other 1,498 1,762 1,858 1,925 1,775

6,034 Total 5,905 7,019 6,355 7,238 6,993

none

Imports none

2,127 Oil, Palm 2,309 2,553 2,692 2,820 2,860

45 Oil, Rapeseed 61 52 65 69 69

505 Oil, Soybean 413 345 368 410 385

1,760 Oil, Sunflowerseed 1,654 2,222 1,695 1,875 1,745

465 Other 171 174 170 190 185

4,902 Total 4,608 5,346 4,990 5,364 5,244

none

Industrial Dom. Cons. none

185 Oil, Palm 185 185 190 190 190

35 Oil, Rapeseed 30 30 15 15 15

137 Oil, Soybean 126 125 135 138 138

20 Oil, Sunflowerseed 20 20 20 20 20

69 Other 58 54 50 57 52

446 Total 419 414 410 420 415

none

Food Use Dom. Cons. none

1,507 Oil, Palm 1,814 1,958 2,118 2,254 2,305

279 Oil, Rapeseed 324 260 239 227 227

901 Oil, Soybean 929 945 972 1,000 1,000

1,951 Oil, Sunflowerseed 2,067 2,301 2,324 2,532 2,352

859 Other 641 636 693 720 720

5,497 Total 5,775 6,100 6,346 6,733 6,604

none

Domestic Consumption none

1,692 Oil, Palm 1,999 2,143 2,308 2,444 2,495

314 Oil, Rapeseed 354 290 254 242 242

1,116 Oil, Soybean 1,135 1,125 1,167 1,188 1,208

1,981 Oil, Sunflowerseed 2,097 2,331 2,354 2,562 2,382

935 Other 705 700 750 784 779

6,038 Total 6,290 6,589 6,833 7,220 7,106

Middle East includes Bahrain, Gaza Strip, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey,

United Arab Emirates, West Banks, and Yemen.

SME - 44 Percent Protein Soybean Meal Equivalent

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 36 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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Table 26: European Union Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Jun

2018/19

Jul

2018/19

none

Production none

24,587 Oilseed, Rapeseed 21,997 20,545 22,166 21,800 20,200

1,832 Oilseed, Soybean 2,320 2,410 2,667 2,750 2,750

8,974 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 7,721 8,598 9,679 9,100 9,100

510 Other 409 418 493 497 497

35,903 Total 32,447 31,971 35,005 34,147 32,547

none

Domestic Consumption none

529 Meal, Fish 581 536 550 550 550

14,200 Meal, Rapeseed 13,800 13,850 13,850 14,300 13,650

30,142 Meal, Soybean 30,742 30,342 30,042 29,942 30,542

9,369 Other 9,181 9,920 10,239 10,239 9,709

54,240 Total 54,304 54,648 54,681 55,031 54,451

none

SME none

767 Meal, Fish 842 775 795 795 795

10,103 Meal, Rapeseed 9,819 9,854 9,854 10,174 9,712

30,100 Meal, Soybean 30,700 30,300 30,000 29,900 30,500

5,394 Other 5,242 5,799 6,027 6,027 5,674

46,365 Total 46,604 46,728 46,676 46,896 46,681

none

Imports none

279 Meal, Fish 284 193 200 200 200

453 Meal, Rapeseed 409 219 225 200 300

19,623 Meal, Soybean 19,207 18,924 18,500 18,500 18,300

5,469 Other 5,502 5,688 5,754 5,954 5,454

25,824 Total 25,402 25,024 24,679 24,854 24,254

none

Industrial Dom. Cons. none

3,400 Oil, Palm 3,400 3,700 3,550 3,550 3,550

7,095 Oil, Rapeseed 7,200 7,100 7,050 7,000 6,900

990 Oil, Soybean 930 850 870 890 900

310 Oil, Sunflowerseed 420 400 330 330 330

515 Other 475 515 525 535 535

12,310 Total 12,425 12,565 12,325 12,305 12,215

none

Food Use Dom. Cons. none

3,300 Oil, Palm 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,700

3,200 Oil, Rapeseed 2,800 3,000 3,025 3,300 3,075

1,000 Oil, Soybean 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300

3,350 Oil, Sunflowerseed 3,850 4,150 4,200 4,150 4,250

2,317 Other 2,358 2,146 2,337 2,437 2,487

13,167 Total 13,308 13,496 13,662 13,887 13,812

none

Domestic Consumption none

6,900 Oil, Palm 6,600 6,800 6,550 6,450 6,450

10,345 Oil, Rapeseed 10,050 10,150 10,125 10,350 10,025

2,040 Oil, Soybean 2,285 2,205 2,225 2,245 2,255

3,670 Oil, Sunflowerseed 4,280 4,560 4,540 4,490 4,590

2,854 Other 2,848 2,676 2,877 2,987 3,037

25,809 Total 26,063 26,391 26,317 26,522 26,357

none

Imports none

6,935 Oil, Palm 6,636 7,224 6,500 6,500 6,500

261 Oil, Rapeseed 207 153 160 150 150

253 Oil, Soybean 325 285 245 250 200

829 Oil, Sunflowerseed 1,418 1,834 1,500 1,500 1,500

1,603 Other 1,383 1,416 1,456 1,436 1,436

9,881 Total 9,969 10,912 9,861 9,836 9,786

European Union includes Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France,

Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania,

Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and United Kingdom.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 37 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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Table 27: China Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Jun

2018/19

Jul

2018/19

none

Production none

16,482 Oilseed, Peanut 16,440 17,290 17,800 18,100 18,100

14,772 Oilseed, Rapeseed 14,931 14,546 14,400 14,200 14,200

12,154 Oilseed, Soybean 11,785 12,900 14,200 14,100 14,500

2,492 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 2,698 2,990 3,120 3,250 3,250

11,757 Other 8,600 8,800 10,800 10,400 10,400

57,657 Total 54,454 56,526 60,320 60,050 60,450

none

Domestic Consumption none

1,474 Meal, Fish 1,439 2,019 1,440 1,450 1,450

11,032 Meal, Rapeseed 11,314 11,634 12,363 12,292 12,292

57,467 Meal, Soybean 62,663 68,646 72,094 79,814 75,558

8,761 Other 7,912 8,492 9,552 9,496 9,546

78,734 Total 83,328 90,791 95,449 103,052 98,846

none

SME none

2,137 Meal, Fish 2,087 2,928 2,081 2,095 2,095

7,529 Meal, Rapeseed 7,730 7,957 8,476 8,426 8,426

56,487 Meal, Soybean 61,663 67,596 70,994 78,664 74,408

7,648 Other 7,073 7,530 8,402 8,394 8,412

73,801 Total 78,553 86,011 89,953 97,579 93,340

none

Imports none

1,031 Meal, Fish 1,042 1,583 1,000 1,000 1,000

142 Meal, Rapeseed 359 875 1,250 1,000 1,000

58 Meal, Soybean 24 61 130 30 30

553 Other 403 657 670 620 670

1,784 Total 1,828 3,176 3,050 2,650 2,700

none

Food Use Dom. Cons. none

3,750 Oil, Palm 2,700 2,680 2,650 2,600 2,950

2,819 Oil, Peanut 2,919 2,999 3,110 3,166 3,166

7,800 Oil, Rapeseed 8,600 8,700 8,800 8,300 8,550

14,200 Oil, Soybean 15,350 16,350 16,850 18,450 17,830

998 Oil, Sunflowerseed 1,379 1,332 1,431 1,617 1,417

1,563 Other 1,272 1,296 1,558 1,517 1,517

31,130 Total 32,220 33,357 34,399 35,650 35,430

none

Domestic Consumption none

5,700 Oil, Palm 4,800 4,830 4,900 4,900 5,250

2,819 Oil, Peanut 2,919 2,999 3,110 3,166 3,166

7,800 Oil, Rapeseed 8,600 8,700 8,800 8,300 8,550

14,200 Oil, Soybean 15,350 16,350 16,850 18,450 17,830

998 Oil, Sunflowerseed 1,379 1,332 1,431 1,617 1,417

2,141 Other 1,832 1,891 2,138 2,097 2,097

33,658 Total 34,880 36,102 37,229 38,530 38,310

none

Imports none

5,696 Oil, Palm 4,689 4,881 5,050 4,950 5,250

141 Oil, Peanut 113 111 110 110 110

732 Oil, Rapeseed 768 802 900 700 900

773 Oil, Soybean 586 711 450 350 700

534 Oil, Sunflowerseed 878 725 750 900 700

751 Other 737 773 756 758 758

8,627 Total 7,771 8,003 8,016 7,768 8,418

SME - 44 Percent Protein Soybean Meal Equivalent

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 38 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

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Table 28: India Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution

Thousand Metric Tons

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Jun

2018/19

Jul

2018/19

none

Production none

12,525 Oilseed, Cottonseed 10,996 11,463 12,312 12,100 12,185

4,855 Oilseed, Peanut 4,470 6,700 6,500 6,000 6,000

5,080 Oilseed, Rapeseed 5,920 7,091 5,850 6,500 6,500

8,711 Oilseed, Soybean 6,929 10,992 8,350 10,800 10,800

383 Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 320 275 277 350 350

730 Other 735 735 770 770 770

32,284 Total 29,370 37,256 34,059 36,520 36,605

none

Domestic Consumption none

4,264 Meal, Cottonseed 3,962 3,738 4,255 4,240 4,240

1,242 Meal, Peanut 1,108 1,566 1,505 1,515 1,515

1,600 Meal, Rapeseed 2,600 2,890 2,800 2,800 2,800

4,500 Meal, Soybean 4,460 4,857 5,050 5,900 5,625

184 Meal, Sunflowerseed 315 419 375 395 345

376 Other 435 446 480 485 485

12,166 Total 12,880 13,916 14,465 15,335 15,010

none

SME none

3,455 Meal, Cottonseed 3,210 3,029 3,448 3,436 3,436

1,390 Meal, Peanut 1,240 1,755 1,686 1,697 1,697

1,138 Meal, Rapeseed 1,850 2,056 1,992 1,992 1,992

4,350 Meal, Soybean 4,300 4,600 4,760 5,600 5,325

123 Meal, Sunflowerseed 210 279 250 263 230

164 Other 190 193 209 211 211

10,621 Total 11,000 11,913 12,345 13,200 12,891

none

Food Use Dom. Cons. none

1,250 Oil, Cottonseed 1,230 1,120 1,250 1,270 1,290

8,750 Oil, Palm 8,600 9,000 10,200 11,100 11,200

970 Oil, Peanut 864 1,155 1,188 1,200 1,200

1,900 Oil, Rapeseed 2,225 2,395 2,325 2,380 2,350

4,100 Oil, Soybean 5,250 5,200 4,850 5,100 5,100

1,700 Oil, Sunflowerseed 1,665 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,000

380 Other 265 240 246 260 260

19,050 Total 20,099 21,210 22,259 23,610 23,400

none

Domestic Consumption none

1,295 Oil, Cottonseed 1,275 1,165 1,295 1,315 1,335

9,150 Oil, Palm 9,100 9,550 10,800 11,720 11,820

980 Oil, Peanut 874 1,165 1,198 1,210 1,210

1,980 Oil, Rapeseed 2,305 2,480 2,405 2,460 2,430

4,100 Oil, Soybean 5,250 5,200 4,850 5,100 5,100

1,700 Oil, Sunflowerseed 1,665 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,000

672 Other 553 506 551 569 569

19,877 Total 21,022 22,166 23,299 24,674 24,464

none

Imports none

0 Oil, Cottonseed 0 0 0 0 0

9,139 Oil, Palm 8,860 9,341 10,600 11,500 11,600

0 Oil, Peanut 0 0 0 0 0

383 Oil, Rapeseed 383 317 370 380 350

2,815 Oil, Soybean 4,269 3,534 3,300 3,650 3,600

1,575 Oil, Sunflowerseed 1,492 2,151 2,100 2,200 1,800

224 Other 106 82 107 110 110

14,136 Total 15,110 15,425 16,477 17,840 17,460

SME - 44 Percent Protein Soybean Meal Equivalent

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 39 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 40: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Year Rapeseed CopraBeg U.S. U.S. Brz Arg Rott U.S. Rott U.S. Rott Hamb RottOct 1 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10/ 11/

Oct - Sep Average06/07-15/16 404 415 442 442 478 513 1475 486 513 500 760

2006/07 254 264 279 279 335 394 1,128 343 401 375 5372007/08 414 452 472 469 550 458 1,688 532 745 644 8672008/09 368 365 403 392 421 517 1,204 461 364 393 4872009/10 354 357 390 395 429 467 1,209 342 452 419 6132010/11 454 482 508 511 549 508 1,792 591 661 647 11882011/12 488 505 549 533 562 729 2,480 632 593 616 8292012/13 530 537 538 543 592 635 1,391 546 580 579 5702013/14 482 487 514 517 542 524 1,300 480 466 505 8542014/15 362 356 388 401 407 482 1,294 506 432 417 7492015/16 339 346 382 375 396 419 1,260 433 440 409 907

2016/17 Oct 342 348 413 386 403 421 1,550 375 413 431 964 Nov 348 358 395 386 412 410 1,600 362 423 431 1,021 Dec 354 367 396 388 420 408 1,600 379 420 439 1,127 Jan 357 371 402 392 425 430 1,650 379 416 446 1225 Feb 362 369 401 397 427 437 1,650 388 415 448 1146 Mar 356 354 381 374 404 448 1,650 384 410 440 1016 Apr 342 336 358 352 389 437 1,650 395 400 431 1044 May 340 340 367 360 388 428 1,650 381 403 432 1113 Jun 334 330 360 355 380 434 1,450 388 396 404 1119 Jul 346 356 388 378 408 452 1,450 395 399 417 1059 Aug 340 337 378 368 390 437 1,405 421 397 427 1062 Sep 344 343 384 378 397 507 1,344 384 399 433 1015 Average 347 351 385 376 404 437 1,554 386 408 432 1,076

2017/18 Oct 337 343 386 378 399 522 1,275 370 390 430 989 Nov 339 346 386 371 401 511 1,250 366 393 438 1,038 Dec 342 345 384 368 399 531 1,231 375 395 425 958 Jan 342 345 384 365 405 509 1,225 388 398 426 943 Feb 349 358 394 383 418 498 1,200 390 408 429 835 Mar 360 366 414 401 432 553 1,302 381 416 423 745 Apr 361 367 428 424 442 527 1,430 397 423 418 756 May 362 363 406 415 431 503 1,420 395 422 411 692 *Jun N/A 328 386 382 398 N/A 1,360 N/A 420 406 623 Jul Aug Sep Average N/A 351 396 387 414 N/A 1,299 N/A 407 423 842

7/ Rotterdam CIF; US Runners 40/50%, Shelled Basis, Oilworld. 8/ US Farm Price; USDA9/ Rotterdam/Amsterdam CIF; EU; Oil World 10/Hamburg CIF; Europe "00"; Oil World.

* Preliminary Sept/Oct/Nov Shipment

3/ Brazil Paranagua, FOB; IGC 4/ Argentina Up River, FOB; IGC5/ Rotterdam CIF; US origin; Oil World. 6/ US Farm Price, Inshell, USDA.

11/ Phil/Indo CIF NW Europe; Oil World

Table 29: Oilseed Prices U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton

Soybean Peanut Sunseed

1/ U.S. Farm Price; USDA. 2/ U.S. NO.1 Yellow Cash Central Illinois; AMS.

7/12/2018 8:45:41 AM

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 40 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 41: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Year FishBeg U.S. Brz Arg Hamb U.S. Ukr BremOct 1 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 6/ 7/ 8/

Oct - Sep Average06/07-15/16 394 372 366 424 208 253 1479

2006/07 226 199 181 276 116 178 12202007/08 370 337 299 469 191 298 11462008/09 365 333 290 401 168 178 11032009/10 343 327 311 391 167 222 16682010/11 381 383 386 418 242 254 16072011/12 434 442 442 461 272 263 1,4482012/13 516 489 506 538 266 318 1,7912013/14 540 500 509 533 263 315 1,6602014/15 406 376 386 403 231 269 1,6322015/16 358 335 349 351 169 233 1,517

2016/17 Oct 356 335 334 340 164 194 1,497 Nov 355 328 338 343 155 193 1,463 Dec 354 321 329 345 160 184 1,423 Jan 366 342 354 355 175 174 1,386 Feb 369 342 355 357 178 177 1,353 Mar 353 323 336 346 171 175 1,304 Apr 337 307 314 331 163 169 1,296 May 339 312 315 329 159 173 1,331 Jun 331 300 303 313 154 173 1,333 Jul 359 324 320 326 144 174 1,354 Aug 332 306 306 318 148 177 1,380 Sep 339 318 312 329 148 174 1,402 Average 349 322 326 336 160 178 1,377

2017/18 Oct 347 326 320 337 169 169 1,378 Nov 346 322 323 333 182 163 1,388 Dec 352 333 340 348 204 172 1,480 Jan 356 343 352 361 196 176 1,572 Feb 400 384 400 400 205 206 1,605 Mar 419 397 415 427 207 239 1,604 Apr 425 419 458 447 212 259 1,578 May 434 416 433 443 222 269 1,510 *Jun 392 390 385 391 194 270 1,494 Jul Aug Sep Average 386 370 381 387 199 214 1,512

1/ Decatur, Average Wholsale 48% Protein; USDA. 2/ Brazil Paranagua, FOB; 48% Protein; IGC.3/ Argentina Pellets, Up River, FOB; IGC; 4/ Hamburg FOB 44/45% Ex-Mill; Oil World.5/ Memphis FOB; 41% Protein Solvent Extraction; USDA; 6/ Minneapolis FOB; 32% Protein; USDA.7/ HiPro a.o. cif France or Ukraine DAF; Argentina Pellet 37-38% (Prior to Aug 2012); Oilworld.8/ Bremen 64-65% Protein; Oil World. 9/ Hamburg FOB; Ex-Mill 34% Protein; Oil World.* Preliminary

280281244302

U.S.5/

298

166

Table 30: Protein Meal Prices U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton

Soybean SunseedCottonseed RapeseedHamb

9/

265

184298195221278

236230

252252

198198221219

246245232215

335

267

323269

213

232

210216239

295353

284

256285334356

244240

303366416

288

221217211225

238239238238

217

7/12/2018 8:45:41 AM

208204216241

289 253

264

267293305282

290289

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 41 July 2018Office of Global Analysis

Page 42: China’s 2018/19 Soybean Import Forecast Curbed On Higher ......2018/07/12  · 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Tons China

Year Cottonseed Palm Canola Coconut CornBegin U.S. Brz Arg Rott U.S. U.S. Rott U.S. Rott Malay Rott Rott U.S.Oct 1 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10/ 11/ 12/ 13/

Oct - Sep Average06/07-15/16 889 911 909 1,000 1,092 1,479 1,075 1,635 1,619 817 1,034 1,142 998

2006/07 684 673 667 771 787 1,279 846 1,253 1,219 655 852 812 7012007/08 1,147 1,190 1,191 1,327 1,622 2,010 1,639 2,225 2,018 1,058 1,410 1,306 1,5292008/09 709 740 741 826 820 1,108 837 1,539 1,339 633 868 735 7222009/10 793 848 829 924 888 1,164 956 1,353 1,291 793 927 921 8662010/11 1,173 1,210 1,211 1,306 1,202 1,899 1,404 1,806 1,751 1,154 1,367 1,772 1,3312011/12 1,144 1,162 1,164 1,241 1,173 1,834 1,254 2,247 2,455 1,032 1,258 1,244 1,2362012/13 1,039 1,012 1,014 1,098 1,071 1,452 1,189 1,934 1,963 791 1,127 858 1,0292013/14 843 871 870 950 1,337 1,304 929 1,430 1,355 803 954 1,278 8692014/15 697 706 705 778 1,009 1,471 850 1,265 1,354 626 782 1,128 8272015/16 658 704 698 774 1,011 1,275 849 1,294 1,443 628 798 1,362 865

2016/17 Oct 746 797 782 858 989 1,235 830 1,430 1,575 677 896 1,463 799 Nov 761 803 796 880 1,010 1,235 830 1,455 1,525 708 899 1,538 812 Dec 784 826 841 907 1,023 1,235 844 1,391 1,504 745 918 1,699 840 Jan 740 798 812 872 982 1,235 817 1,386 1,520 759 917 1,815 835 Feb 705 761 762 835 915 1,213 808 1,392 1,545 740 878 1,703 840 Mar 680 734 712 812 870 1,146 783 1,451 1,578 713 850 1,549 836 Apr 652 704 699 791 828 1,124 784 1,536 1,558 681 824 1,580 830 May 675 734 734 827 852 1,113 797 1,560 1,550 698 844 1,687 831 Jun 678 739 741 827 851 1,120 780 1,680 1,518 670 813 1,697 838 Jul 724 747 744 835 857 1,130 793 1,670 1,498 658 843 1,591 827 Aug 731 760 758 855 802 1,163 806 1,535 1,478 651 875 1,604 810 Sep 734 779 779 882 848 1,217 810 1,468 1,433 690 889 1,525 804 Average 718 765 763 848 902 1,181 807 1,496 1,524 699 871 1,621 825

2017/18 Oct 713 770 775 867 817 1,235 788 1,443 1,410 681 889 1,485 771 Nov 737 781 786 881 816 1,224 795 1,433 1,368 670 930 1,549 760 Dec 711 753 758 866 755 1,208 787 1,437 1,356 619 879 1,456 749 Jan 697 759 766 864 722 1,224 784 1,458 1,335 650 848 1,399 676 Feb 675 748 753 842 693 1,213 794 1,469 1,325 654 829 1,252 655 Mar 668 747 749 834 691 1,190 790 1,477 1,325 658 798 1,124 654 Apr 655 730 735 827 688 1,190 802 1,474 1,330 651 794 1,135 650 May 648 710 719 793 689 1,190 782 1,466 1,316 639 812 1,029 654 *Jun 624 685 680 786 659 1,190 759 1,493 1,308 605 817 938 651 Jul Aug Sep Average 681 743 747 840 726 1,207 787 1,461 1,341 647 844 1,263 6911/ Decatur; Average Wholesale Tank Crude; USDA. 2/ Brazil Paranagua, FOB Crude; IGC.3/ Argentina Up River, FOB Crude; IGC 4/ Dutch FOB; Ex-Mill; Oil World. 5/ PBSY Greenwood MS; USDA. 6/ Minneapolis FOB; USDA. 7/ EU FOB NW Euro; Oil World. 8/ South East Mills FOB; Tank Cars Crude; USDA. 9/ Rotterdam CIF; Any Origin; Oil World. 10/ Malaysia FOB; RBD; Oil World. 11/ Rotterdam, Dutch FOBEx-Mill; Oilworld. 12/ Rotterdam CIF; Phil/Indo; Oil World. 13/ Chicago; Crude; AMS * Preliminary

Table 31: Vegetable Oil Prices U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton

7/12/2018 8:45:41 AM

Soybean Sunseed Peanut

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 42 July 2018Office of Global Analysis