SNG LC (SCREENING)(L THUYT TR CHI)

CHNG 9

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CH 9. SNG LC (SCREENING)

9.1 Thng tin khng y 9.2 Sng lc (Screening)9.3 D on ca Coase9.4 Kh nng lm cam kt

3 Ch7, 8: c 1 gi thit kh mnh cho m phn: cc bn mphn bit y thng tin cn thit cho vic ra quyt nh.

Trn thc t, vic khng c thng tin v nh v kh nngchi tr ca khch hng l mt iu ph bin Nhng ngii m phn mt rt nhiu cng sc tm hiu mc tiuca i tc v tm cch che y mc tiu ring ca mnh, ththut c s dng:

t my nghe trm Tung tin gi mt cch c tnh ton T ra thn thin qu mc

LTTC c th gip ta s dng thng tin mt cch c tnhton.

9.1 Thng tin khng y (incomplete information)

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Thng tin khng hon ho l tnh trng mthay nhiu ngi tham gia th trng khng cnhng thng tin h cn ra quyt nh.

Thng tin khng hon ho bao gm: Thng tin khng y Thng tin khng chnh xc Thng tin khng th thu thp c Thng tin b che giu

9.1 Thng tin khng y Thng tin khng hon ho

(imperfect information)

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Thng tin bt cn xng l tnh trng trongmt giao dch, mt bn c thng tin y hn v tt hn so vi bn cn li.

Tnh trng thng tin bt cn xng hin dinrt nhiu trong cc lnh vc. V d: Th trng nh t Th trng lao ng Th trng bo him Th trng chng khon

9.1 Thng tin khng y Thng tin bt cn xng

Th trng hng ha Ngn hng Lnh vc u t Th trng c

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Thng tin bt cn xng l l mt tht bica th trng v n gy ra S la chn ngc (la chn bt li)

(adverse selection AS) Ri ro o c (tm l li)

(moral hazard MH) Vn ngi y quyn-ngi tha hnh

(principal-agent PA)

9.1 Thng tin khng y Hu qu ca thng tin bt cn xng

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9.1 Thng tin khng y V d v Bn i

89.1 Thng tin khng y V d v Laptop IBM

$1100

Ngi bn

$1040

$1000

Ngi mua

Nhu cu cao Nhu cu thp

s lng ngimua tim tng

Gi s ngi bn c sc mnh c quyn v c kh nng gi cam kt, gic c ngi bn ghi r, v ngi mua ch c th chp nhn, hoc tchi mua, m khng th mc c (take it or leave it):a) Nu ngi bn bit c ch xc kh nng chi tr ca ngi mua

c th khai thc ton b li ch sinh ra t trao i thng mib) Ngi bn khng c kh nng phn bit c ngi mua thuc nhmc nhu cu no mc phi mt trong hai loi sai lm: i gi qu cao,t gi qu thp

Trng hp 1

99.1 Thng tin khng y V d v Laptop IBM

$1100

Ngi bn

$1040

$1000

Ngi mua

Nhu cu cao Nhu cu thp

S lng ngimua tim tng

NB ch tp trung vo high-end $1100: Kim $100/v, b l chi kim li Trung bnh, nhn c $50 li nhun/1 ngi mua tim tng.

NB nh mc gi $1040 : Bn cho ton b ngi tiu dng Trungbnh, nhn c $40 li nhun/1 ngi mua tim tng.

CL no c li hn? CL nhm vo high-end th trng l c li hn. Thng tin l sc mnh ca m phn

V d: nhm low-end sn sng tr n 1055 USD, NB nn quyt nh ntn?

Trng hp 2

10

$1100

Ngi bn

$1045

$1000

Ngi mua

Nhu cu cao Nhu cu thp

54%

S lng ngimua tim tng

70%

46%

V D: NH GI?

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$1100

Ngi bn

$1060

$1000

Ngi mua

Nhu cu cao Nhu cu thp

S lng ngimua tim tng

9.2 Sng lc (Screening)

80%

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9.2 Sng lc (Screening)

Ngi bn c th p dng chin lc nh gi tinh vihn. H c th thit k cch giao dch nhm xui khinngi mua t bc l v s thch ca mnh. Ta gi lvn sng lc.

Gi s hng bn ra c tnh thi trang. Ngi mua thucnhm nhu cu cao c th mua ngay khi hng mi tung ra;hoc c th i ti cui k. Nhng khi , i vi Ngimua, gi tr ca hng mua c ch cn bng 80% gi tr sovi vic mua ngay vo u k.

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9.2 Sng lc (Screening)

Gim gi lin tc:

1. in thoi di ng.

2. Laptop.

3. thi trang (qun o,

ti sch, giy dp)

L mt chin lc nh gi,khng phi v hng kmcht lng.

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9.2 Sng lc (Screening)

Ngi bn c th p dng hai mc gi.

Mc gi cao p dng vo u k; v sau hgi vo ma sale cui k; vi gi thit rng lc ch cn ton ngi mua thuc lp nhu cu thp.V vy gi vo cui k nn nh l 1060 USD.

Vy nn nh gi lc u k l bao nhiu, khuyn khch nhi mua thuc nhm nhu cucao mua ngay, m khng i ti ma sale.

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9.2 Sng lc (Screening)

Gi s mc gi lc u ma l P: Nu ngi mua nhu cu cao mua ngay, h s hng li l

(1100 P).Nu h i ti k sale, h s hng li l

0,8.(1100 1060) = 32.Vy nn, nu mc gi u ma l khng qu cao, tc l:

(1100 P) 0,8.(1100 1060) P 1068

ng mua nhu cu cao s mua ngay m khng i gim gi. ngi bn thnh cng trong vic sng lc khch hng. Li nhun s l ( 68 + 60) > 60 USD (nu nh khng p dng chnh sch sng lc).

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$1100

Ngi bn

$1042

$1000

Ngi mua

Nhu cu cao Nhu cu thp

S lng ngimua tim tng

9.2 Sng lc (Screening)

80%

17

22

Ngi bn i

18

12

Ngi mua

Nhu cu cao Nhu cu thp

S lng ngimua tim tng

9.2 Sng lc (Screening)

80%

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9.2 Sng lc (Screening)

V d: Nhm low-end ch sn sng tr n 1042USD: tm P? NB nn nh gi nh th no c li nht? Cho mt vi v d v CL Snglc?

Kt lun: Khi m c s phn bit qu ln v nhucu hay kh nng chi tr ca cc lp ngi muakhc nhau, sng lc khng phi l chin lc cli.

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9.3 D on ca Coase [Coases conjecture]

Chin lc Sng lc thng p dng cho th trng hng khng lu bn.VD: Kinh doanh chiu phim, dch v du lch, khch sn

Nhng i vi hng tiu dng lu bn (ngi mua ngy hm nay s tkhi quay li mua hng vo ngy mai)

Hng em bn ra trong ngy hm nay cnh tranh vi hng s bn vongy mai.

nhng nh c quyn bn hng tiu dng lu bn cnh tranh vi tnglai ca chnh h.

nh c quyn chu sc p phi gim gi trong tng lai. V ngi tiudng cao c th on trc iu v i n ngy mai, khi nh cquyn buc phi h gi. iu lm nh c quyn bn b thit thi.

Hy xem xt k hn m hnh ny.

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9.3 D on ca Coase [Coases conjecture]

Gi s rng bn c mt mn hng c. nh th n chngc gi tr g i vi bn na (gi tr hng ha bng zero).Bn mun em ra bn li cho ai cn n.

Ngi mua c th tr bt k mt gi no trong khong t 0n 1 triu. Gi V l kh nng chi tr ca ngi mua timtng; P v l mc gi bn giao bn.

Khi , bn c th gp phi mt trong hai loi sai lm: giaogi qu cao, P>V , v bn s mt i mt giao dch c li;hoc giao gi qu thp, P>V , v bn s b mt li nhun.

Vy bn nn giao gi l bao nhiu cn bng mc ri rot hai loi sai lm ni trn?

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CHUN B CHO TUN TI

c thm cc chng tip theo. Chun b thuyt trnh v phn bin.