CII's - Business Outlook Survey

7/28/2019 CII's - Business Outlook Survey

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82nd

Business Outlook Survey

January March 2013


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Highlights The CII Business Confidence Index (CII-BCI) for January-March 2013 rises to 51.3, after

dipping below the psychological 50-level mark to 49.9 in October-December 2012.

The survey reveals that most of the respondents (43.5 per cent) expect GDP growth to come in

a range of 5.0-5.5 per cent for 2012-13. For 2013-14, maximum respondents (29.3 per cent)expect GDP to lie in a range of 6.0-6.5 per cent.

42 per cent of respondents expect average WPI inflation to lie in a range of 7.0-8.0 per cent in

2012-13. For 2013-14, maximum respondents (37.4 per cent) expect headline inflation to come

in a range of 6.0-7.0 per cent.

Majority of the respondents (62.4 per cent) expect the fiscal deficit to exceed the budgeted

estimate of 4.8 of GDP in 2013-14.

Maximum respondents (48 per cent) expect current account deficit to lie in a range of 4.0-5.0

per cent of GDP in 2012-13 and dont see any significant improvement in the situation during

the next fiscal.

Majority of the respondents (62.2 per cent) expect the domestic investments of their firms to

show a decline or no change in the January-March 2013 quarter while only 30.6 per cent expect

it to increase.

Most of the respondents (49 per cent) expect international investments to show a decline or

no change in the fourth-quarter of 2012-13, while 33.7 per cent of respondents expect it to

record an increase.

In a sign of improving capacity utilization, most of the respondents (49.5 per cent) expect it

to remain above 75 per cent in the final-quarter of the current fiscal.

Majority of the respondents in the survey foresee increase in their sales, new orders and

value of production in the fourth quarter of 2012-13, while inventory levels, credit

availability and employment were expected to remain largely unchanged.

Overall, expectation for pre-tax profits is encouraging for the 4QFY13 as there has been

considerable increase in the proportion of respondents who expect it to augment from the third

quarter.

Over 58.0 per cent of the respondents expected an increase in the costs of raw materials,

electricity & fuel during January-March 2012. Around 44 per cent of the respondents saw

their credit cost increasing in the current quarter from the previous quarter.

Majority of the respondents in the survey expected export and new orders to increase in

4QFY13, which was higher than the proportion of previous quarter. Majority also expected

imports to surge in 4QFY13.

High Level of Corruption emerged as the topmost concern for most of the respondents,

followed by elevated Inflation.


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I. Business Confidence Index

Corporate sector is facing headwinds, with each successive quarter providing little respite from

the string of bad news. However, in the wake of pro-growth measures announced by the

government in the last few months along with some incremental improvement in the globaleconomic conditions, the corporate sector is slowly but steadily coming out of the abyss.

Reflecting this positive optimism, the CII Business Confidence Index (CII-BCI) for

January- March 2013 rose to 51.3, after dipping below the psychological 50-level mark in

October-December 2012.

Though the index strengthened in the final quarter of the current fiscal, there is an air of

cautious optimism as the durability of the reform process initiated by the government is

contingent on its ability to garner political support from its allies. The recovery process has

just kicked in and it will take some time before the index rises to its pre-crisis levels.

The respondents in the survey were asked to provide a view on the performance of their firm,

and the economy based on their perceptions for next quarter. The CII-BCI is then constructed

as a weighted average of the Current Situations Index (CSI) and the Expectation Index (EI).

The Expectation Index (EI) which reflects the expectations of the respondents for January-

March 2013 quarter strengthened by 2.8 points from the level in the previous quarter.

Quarterly Business Confidence Index (BCI)

* The Survey is conducted on a quarterly basis since the 74th

Business Outlook Survey

Index Q3*FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 QFY

Business ConfidenceIndex

66.2 66.7 62.5 53.6 48.6 52.9 55.0 51.3 49.9 5

Current Situation Index 64.0 62.7 62.6 52.7 47.7 54.7 51.9 47.5 48.6 47

Overall Economy 65.0 59.9 61.1 49.2 44.5 49.4 48.9 36.3 44.5 44

Own Activity Sector 63.2 63.0 61.8 51.8 46.0 46.9 46.9 44.6 45.9 46

Own Company 64.3 63.4 63.7 54.4 50.0 56.3 56.3 53.2 51.7 4867.3

Expectation Index 67.3 68.7 62.4 54.0 49.1 51.9 56.5 53.2 50.6 53

Overall Economy 66.0 65.6 61.1 48.5 44.2 48.9 52.8 44.6 47.5 49

Own Activity Sector 66.3 68.8 61.1 53.7 47.5 46.9 53.5 49.8 48.1 52

Own Company 68.4 69.7 63.7 56.1 51.7 56.3 59.7 58.4 53.3 55


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Business Confidence Index

65.7 67.269.3

71.8

63.966.3

61.0

56.358.7

66.167.6 66.2 66.7

62.5

53.6

48.6

52.9 55.0 51.3 49.9 51.3

H12005-06

H22005-06

H12006-07

H22006-07

H12007-08

H22007-08

H12008-09

H22008-09

H12009-10

H22009-10

H12010-11

Q32010-11

Q42010-11

Q12011-12

Q22011-12

Q32011-12

Q42011-12

Q12012-13

Q22012-13

Q32012-13

Q42012-13

II. General Business Prospects

Growth

GDP expected to recover to a range of 6.0-6.5 per cent in 2013-14

GDP growth has slowed down significantly this year, dropping to a low of 4.5 per cent in the

third quarter of FY13. The decline in the GDP growth rate has become more broad-based, withconsumption demand also slowing alongside stalling investment and declining exports. As per

the advance estimates released by CSO recently, GDP growth for the current fiscal is expected

to grow by 5.0 per cent. Indeed, 43.5 per cent of the respondents expect GDP to come in a

range of 5.0-5.5 per cent for 2012-13, while 30.4 per cent expect it to come in range of 5.5-

6.0 per cent.

Growth is expected to improve in 2013-14, buttressed by a pro-growth budget announced by

the government and marginal improvement in the global economic conditions. The Economic

Survey 2012-13 pegs the growth in 2013-14 to come in a range of 6.1-6.7 per cent. As per

the survey, maximum respondents (29.3 per cent) expect GDP to lie in a range of 6.0-6.5 percent in 2013-14, while only 13 per cent expect growth to exceed 6.5 per cent.


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Expected Economic Grow th in 2012-13

(% of Respondents)

14.8

43.5

30.4

8.71.7

0.9

7.0%

Expected Economic Growth in 2013-14

(% of Responde nts)

11.2

21.6

25.0

29.3

10.30.9

1.7

7.5%

Inflation

WPI Inflation to lie in a range of 6.0-7.0 per cent in 2013-14

Notwithstanding the recent moderation in WPI-based inflation, it has remained above the

RBIs comfort zone in the current fiscal. WPI inflation has averaged 7.4 per cent for the eleven

months of the fiscal so far. Notably, inflation on account of non-food manufactured products,

which have a weight of 55 per cent in the WPI, fell sharply in November-February 2012-13 as

input price pressures ebbed. The survey reveals that 42 per cent of respondents expect

average WPI inflation to lie in a range of 7.0-8.0 per cent, while another 29 per cent expect it

to come in a range of 8.0-9.0 per cent for 2012-13.

As for the next fiscal, WPI inflation is expected to soften from its levels in the current fiscal.

The survey reveals that maximum respondents (37.4 per cent) expect headline inflation to

come in a range of 6.0-7.0 per cent in 2013-14, while 25 per cent expect it between 7.0-8.0

per cent. Additionally, 28 per cent of respondents expect the headline number above 8 per

cent for the next fiscal.


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Expected WPI Inflation in 2012-13

(% of Respondents)4.3

14.8

41.7

28.7

10.4

9.0%

Expected WPI Inflation in 2013-14

(% of Respondents)

3.56.1

37.4

25.2

12.2

15.7

9.0%

Fiscal Deficit

62.4 per cent of respondents expect fiscal deficit to exceed governments

budgeted target of 4.8 per cent of GDP for 2013-14

The fiscal deficit of the central government for 2012-13 has now been re-estimated at 5.2 per

cent of GDP as compared to the budgeted estimate of 5.3 per cent. Though the actual number

has overshot the budgeted levels, it needs to be kept in mind that the extent of breach has

been significantly lower than what was initially expected thanks to the slew of measures

announced by the government in the second-half of 2012-13 in order to rein in the deficit.The

budget for 2013-14 clearly began the process of fiscal consolidation by targeting fiscal deficit

at 4.8 per cent of GDP. Interestingly, majority of respondents (62.4 per cent) do not agree

with the governments estimates and expect fiscal deficit to exceed the budgeted levels in

2013-14.


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Expected Fiscal Deficit (as a % of GDP) in 2013-14

(% of Res pondents)

7.3

30.3

30.3

19.3

12.8

6.0%

Current Account Deficit

45 per cent of respondents expect CAD to lie in a range of 4.0-5.0 per cent

of GDP in 2013-14

In view of the large trade deficit underpinned by imports growth outpacing the exports growth

for most period of the current fiscal, the current account deficit (CAD) has widened

significantly. CAD stood at a high of US$22.3 billion (5.4 per cent of GDP) in the second-

quarter of 2012 from US$16.4 billion (3.9 per cent of GDP) in the previous quarter. As per the

survey, maximum respondents (48 per cent) expect current account deficit to lie in a range of

4.0-5.0 per cent of GDP, while 39 per cent expect it to exceed 5 per cent.

The next fiscal is no different, with 45 per cent of respondents expecting CAD to lie in a range

of 4.0-5.0 per cent of GDP, while 33 per cent expect it to increase beyond 5 per cent. The

balance, 23 per cent of respondents expect CAD to lie below 4 per cent in 2013-14.

Interestingly, 48 per cent of respondents did not expect the recent rise in imports duty on gold

to help in arresting current account deficit in 2013-14.


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Expected Current Account Deficit (as a % of GDP)

in 2012-13

(% of Respondents)

2.910.5

24.8

22.9

23.8

15.2

5.5%

Expected Curr ent Account Deficit (as a % of

GDP) in 2013-14

(% of Res pondents)

4.8

18.1

21.9

22.9

20.0

12.4

5.5%

III. Business Prospects

Capacity Expansion & Capacity Utilization

Spending on capacity expansion by most of the respondents show no

change in 4QFY13, while capacity utilization is expected to remain healthy

Reflecting the weakness in current domestic macroeconomic scenario, the respondent

companys spending on capacity expansion has remained lukewarm. The survey revealed that

46.4 per cent of respondents expected no change in their spending on capacity expansion in

January-March 2013 quarter, while only 29 per cent of respondents expect it to increase

during the fourth quarter of 2012-13. Encouragingly, most of the respondents (49.5 per cent)

expect capacity utilization to lie in a range of 75-100 per cent in the final quarter of 2012-13,

which is indeed an encouraging sign as it indicates that companys expect demand to recover

in the months to come.


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Expected Spending on Capacity Expansion in Jan-

Mar 2013

(% of Respondents)

29.124.5

46.4

Increase Decrease No Change

Expected Capacity Utilisation in Jan-Mar 2013

(% of Respondents)

11.9

37.6

49.5

0.9

Below 50% 50-75% 75-100% > 100 %

Investment Plans

Investment scenario remains grim, with most of the respondents expecting

either decline or no change in their domestic and international investment

plans in 4QFY13

The investment scenario remains grim despite the recent announcement of reform measures

to prop up investment demand in the economy. The reform measures are expected to

positively impact investment demand with a lag and we might see some improvement in the

next few quarters. The present situation continues to remain grim. According to the survey,

majority of the respondents (62.2 per cent) expect the domestic investments of their firms to

show a decline or no change in the January-March 2013 quarter. Of those who expect an

increase in domestic investment, 22.5 per cent expect it to increase by 0-10 per cent, while

7.2 per cent expect it to increase by 10-20 per cent.

Mirroring the trend of domestic investment trends, most of the respondents (49.0 per cent)

expect international investments to show a decline or no change in the final quarter of 2012-

13, while 33.7 per cent of respondents expect it to record an increase. Amongst those

expecting the international investments to increase, 22 per cent expect it to increase by 0-10

per cent, while 8.1 per cent expect the jump to be between 10-20 per cent.


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Expectation of Investment Plans in Jan-Mar 2013

(% of Respondents)

62.2

22.5

7.20.9

7.2

48.8

22.1

8.13.5

17.4

Declineor

nochange

Increase

by0-10%

Increase

by10-20%

Increase

by>20%

Not

Applicable

Declineor

nochange

Increase

by0-10%

Increase

by10-20%

Increase

by>20%

Not

Applicable

Domestic Investments International Investments

IV. Overall Trends

Overall sales

Sales to pick-up as nearly half of the respondents expects it to increase in

4QFY13

In an encouraging sign, almost half of respondents (49.5 per cent) expect their sales to record

a jump in January-March 2013 quarter, while 29.5 per cent expect no change. As for theactual sales trend in October-December 2012, about a third (31.2 per cent) of the respondents

saw their sales increasing while 32.1 per cent of the respondents saw no change. This is

indeed a good sign for the economy and bodes well for growth prospects.

31.2 32.136.7

49.5

29.5

21.0

Increase No Change Decline

Overall Sales(% of Respondents)

Actual October-December 2012 Expected January-March 2013


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New Orders

Outlook for new orders is positive for 4QFY13 as majority of the

respondents expects them to improve

More than two-fifth of the respondent firms (41.5 per cent) witnessed no change in the new

orders in the third-quarter of 2012-13, while 22.6 per cent saw an increase in the same.

However, 35.8 per cent posted a decline in new orders in the third quarter. The outlook for

new orders is positive in the fourth-quarter (January-March) of 2012-13; with over half of the

respondent firms (51.0 per cent) expecting the new orders to increase and only a few (18.3

per cent) expecting a decline.

New Orders

(% of Respondents)

22.6

41.535.8

51.0

30.8

18.3

Increase

No

Change

Decline

Increase

No

Change

Decline


Value of Production

Value of production to improve significantly in 4QFY13 as majority of the

respondents expect business to grow

The results of the 82nd Business Outlook survey showed that 45.6 per cent of the respondent

witnessed stagnancy in their value of production in the period from October-December 2012,

while 26.2 per cent of them saw an increase. The expectations for the January-March 2013

quarter have improved, with most of the respondent firms (48.0 per cent) expecting an

increase in their value of production and 32.0 per cent expecting no change. Only a few (20.0

per cent) expect it to decline in the fourth-quarter due to rising cost of inputs.


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Value of Production

(% of Respondents)

26.2

45.6

28.2

48.0

32.0

20.0

Increase

No

Change

Decline

Increase

No

Change

Decline


Inventory

Bulk of the respondents expect no change in inventory levels in 4QFY13

from the previous quarters level

Most of the respondents (48.0 per cent) saw no change in the inventory levels in the third-

quarter of 2012-13 owing to uncertainty in both domestic and global scenario; they preferred

to keep their production plans on hold. Close to 30.0 per cent of respondents witnessed an

increase in inventory level compared to 22.5 per cent who reported a decline. Expectations for

January-March quarter of 2012-13 are on the similar lines, a bulk of the respondents (46.5 per

cent) expect their inventory levels to remain unchanged, while 30.3 per cent expect to see the

levels increasing.

Inventories

(% of Respondents)

29.4 30.3

48.0 46.5

22.5 23.2




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Availability of Credit

Expectations for 4QFY13 are almost on the similar lines as in 3QFY13; an

overwhelming majority of the respondents expect credit availability to

remain either stagnant or decline despite recent cut in CRR by RBI

As regards the availability of credit, an overwhelming majority of respondents (83.8 per cent)

saw their availability of credit either remaining unchanged or decreasing during the October-

December 2012 quarter, while another 16.2 per cent saw it increasing. This was attributable

mainly to the persistently high interest rates prevailing in the economy. Expectations for the

fourth-quarter 2012-13 too reveal almost similar trend, with bulk of the respondent firms

(76.3 per cent) expecting the availability of credit to either remain stagnant or decline, in

contrast 23.7 per cent expecting an increase in credit availability.

Availability of Credit

(% of Respondents)

16.2

61.6

22.2

23.7

61.9

14.4

Increase

No Change

Decline


Employment

Employment levels to remain unchanged in 4QFY13. However, there is a

slight optimism as the proportion of respondents expecting it to increase

has doubled from last quarter

The survey showed that that majority of the respondent firms (58.3 per cent) kept their

employment levels unchanged in the third-quarter of 2012-13 as opposed to 30.1 per cent

which saw a decrease in their employment levels. Expectations for the January-March of 2012-

13 reveal that once again majority of the respondent firms (54.1 per cent) expect no change

in their employment levels, while 22.4 per cent expect it to decline. However, expectations

have improved as 23.5 per cent foresee an increase in their employment levels in the fourth-

quarter as compared to 11.7 per cent in the third-quarter.


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11.7

58.3

30.1

23.5

54.1

22.4


Employment(% of Respondents)


Pre-Tax Profits

Expectation for pre-tax profits is encouraging for 4QFY13 as there has been

considerable increase in the proportion of respondents who expect it to

augment from the third quarter

Mirroring the gloomy macroeconomic scenario, the survey revealed that majority of the

respondent firms (50.9 per cent) saw their pre-tax profits declining in the third-quarter of

2012-13, while only a minority (17.9 per cent) posted an increase in the profits. 31.1 per cent

saw stagnancy in their pre-tax profits in the third-quarter. The good news is that the number

of respondent firms expecting a decline in their pre-tax profits in the fourth-quarter of 2012-

13 is now much lower at 32.7 per cent, while an even higher 34.7 per cent expect the profits

to increase as compared to the third-quarter of the current fiscal.

Pre Tax Profit

(% of Respondents)

17.934.7

31.1

32.7

50.932.7




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Raw Material Cost

Input cost was expected to remain unchanged in 4QFY13. Cost of credit,

was, however, expected to increase

Over 58.0 per cent of the respondents firms experienced an increase in the costs of raw

materials, electricity and fuel during October-December 2012, while more than half of the

respondents reported no change in the wages & salaries and cost of credit. Expectations for

the fourth quarter of 2012-13 appears to have softened as a higher proportion of respondent

firms (over 50.0 per cent) expect input cost to remain unchanged in comparison to the

previous quarter except for cost of credit. Cost of credit is likely to increase according to 43.8

per cent of the respondent firms, higher than the third quarter.

Raw Material Cost

(% of Respondents)

58.8

32.0

9.3

74.0

24.0

2.0

45.5

50.5

4.0

32.7

62.2

5.1

36.8

54.7

8.4

32.7

64.3

3.1

43.4 5

1.5

5.1

43.8

39.6

16.7

Increase

No

Change

Decrease

Increase

No

Change

Decrease

Increase

No

Change

Decrease

Increase

No

Change

Decrease

Raw Material Cost Electricity and Fuel Cost Wages & Salaries Cost Cost of Credit


VI. Export and Import Trends

Volume of Exports and New Orders

Export and new orders are expected to increase in 4QFY13, perhaps due to

positive developments in US, Europe and Asian economies

In the third quarter of 2012-13, 30.7 percent of the respondents recorded a decline in export

volumes, while 21.3 per cent recorded an increase and 48.0 per cent recorded unchanged

levels of export volumes. The respondents had been largely able to maintain their exports

volumes due to selling in new markets other than the traditional ones which are going through

tough phase. Expectations show that majority continue to expect volume of exports to

increase or remain unchanged, while less than a fifth ( 15.8 per cent) expects it to decline in


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January-March 2012-13. Signs of improvement in US, Europe and Asian market economies are

expected to boost Indian exports in the 4QFY13.

With regards to new orders, the survey revealed that most of the respondents (49.3 per cent)

witnessed unchanged levels in October-December 2012, while 19.2 per cent registered an

increase and 31.5 per cent saw a decline in new orders. However, during January-March 2012-

13, majority (83.8 per cent) expect new orders to increase or remain unchanged.

Volume of Imports

Imports are also expected to increase in 4QFY13 due to robust domestic

demand

According to the survey, volume of imports in October-December 2012 remained unchanged

for majority of the respondent firms (59.2 per cent), while 15.5 per cent of firms registered an

increase in import volumes and a little more than a fourth (25.4 per cent) registered a decline.

It appears that strong domestic demand has superseded the dampening impact of rupee

depreciation on imports. Expectations for January-March 2013 show similar trends, with

majority expecting volume of imports to either increase or remain unchanged. However, the

share of respondents who expect import volume to decrease remained stable at 25.4 per cent

in the fourth quarter.

Trade

(% of Respondents)

21.3

48.0

30.7

19.2

49.3

31.5

15.5

59.2

25.43

4.2

50.0

15.8

31.1

52.7

16.2 2

5.4

49.3

25.4

Increase

No

Change

Decrease

Increase

No

Change

Decrease

Increase

No

Change

Decrease

Volume of Exports New Orders Volume of Imports


Exchange Rate


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Exchange Rate to appreciate a little and remain in the range between Rs.

50-53 by March 2014 end

More than three-fifth (64.3 per cent) of the respondents expects exchange rate to remain

depreciated and in the range of Rs. 53-55, by March 2013 end. The scenario is, however,projected to improve by March 2014 end as nearly 50.0 per cent of the respondents expect it

to remain in between Rs. 50-53.

Rs. 55, 8.0

Expected Exchange Rate by March 2013(% of Respondents) Rs. 54, 28.6

Expected Exchange Rate by March 2014(% of Respondents)

VII. Business Concerns

Rampant corruption and persisting high inflation emerged as the two

foremost concerns for the firms

Corruption emerged as the topmost concern of most of the respondents, followed by High

Inflation, Threat to Reform Process, High Interest Rates and Domestic

Economic/Political Instability. Stagnancy in reforms was, however, the topmost concern in

the last survey. The current survey reveals that the Global Economic/Political Instability is

the lowest-ranked concern for businesses at this point in time.


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Business Outlook: Concerns

4.03.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3

HighLevelsof

Corruption

PersistentHigh

Inflation

ThreattoReforms

Process

HighInterestrates

Domestic

Economic/Political

Instability

BurgeoningFiscal

Deficit

Burgeoning

CurrentAccount

Deficit

HighRaw

material

Cost

Slackening

Consumer

Demand

Inadeqauteskilled

labors

CurrencyRisks

Infrastructureand

Institutional

Shortages

Deteriorationin

Law

andOrder

conditionin

Country

Global

Economic/Political

VIII. Coverage & Methodology

CIIs 82nd Business Outlook Survey is based on sample survey of firms covering all industry

sectors, including micro, small, medium and large enterprises from different regions. The

survey also enumerated responses across industry groups both in public and private sectors

engaged in manufacturing and services sector. The survey was conducted from January-March

2013.

Majority of the respondents (53.0 per cent) belonged to large-scale firms, while 14.8 per cent

were from medium-scale firms and 25.2 per cent and 7.0 per cent each were from small-scale

and micro firms respectively. Sectoral break up shows that 67.2 per cent of the respondents

were from manufacturing sector while 31.0 per cent and 1.7 per cent were from services and

primary sector respectively.

CII-BCI is calculated as a weighted average of the Current Situation Index (CSI) and the

Expectation Index (EI), with greater weight given to EI as compared to CSI. These indices are

based on questions pertaining to performance of the economy and respondents firm.

Respondents are asked to rate the current and expected performance on a scale of 0 to 100. A

score above 50 indicates positive confidence while a score above 75 would indicate strong

positive confidence. On the contrary, a score of less than 50 indicates a weak confidence

index.

In the construction of the two sub-indices, the highest weight is given to the questions related

to the performance of the individual firm, and the lowest weight is assigned to the questions

on the economy. The weights are assigned on the basis of the premise that the average


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respondent would possess more detailed and accurate knowledge on the current and expected

performance of his own firm than the economy as a whole.

******************

Copyright 2013 by Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in, or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted in anyform or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise), without the prior writtenpermission of the copyright owner. CII has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of information presented in thisdocument. However, neither CII nor any of its office bearers or analysts or employees can be held responsible for anyfinancial consequences arising out of the use of information provided herein. However, in case of any discrepancy,

error, etc., same may please be brought to the notice of CII for appropriate corrections.

Published by Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), The Mantosh Sondhi Centre; 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road,New Delhi-110003 (INDIA), Tel: +91-11-24629994-7, Fax: +91-11-24626149; Email: [email protected]; Web: www.cii.in

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CII's - Business Outlook Survey