CIMB Investment Market outlook...Market outlook Defence is the best offence 2 Important Notice This presentation has been prepared by CIMB Investment Bank Berhad (“CIMB”) exclusively

Nigel Foo Oct 2018

Together

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CIMB Investment

Market outlook Defence is the best offence

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Important Notice This presentation has been prepared by CIMB Investment Bank Berhad (“CIMB”) exclusively for the benefit and internal use of the recipient in order to indicate, on a preliminary basis, the feasibility of possible transactions. Terms contained in this presentation are intended for discussion purposes only and are subject to a definitive agreement. All information contained in this presentation belongs to CIMB and its related corporations (“CIMB Group”) and may not be copied, distributed or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without the written consent of CIMB Group.

This presentation has been prepared on the basis of information that is believed to be correct at the time the presentation was prepared, but that may not have been independently verified. CIMB Group makes no express or implied warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any such information.

None of the member of the CIMB Group and its affiliates (including its joint venture companies and their

respective related corporations) is acting as an advisor or agent to any person to whom this presentation is directed. Such persons must make their own independent assessment of the contents of this presentation, should not treat such content as advice relating to legal, accounting, taxation or investment matters and should consult their own advisers.

Any member of the CIMB Group and its affiliates (including its joint venture companies and their respective

related corporations) may act as a principal or agent in any transaction contemplated by this presentation, or any other transaction connected with any such transaction, and may as a result earn brokerage, commission or other income. Nothing in this presentation is intended to be, or should be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or invitation to subscribe for, any securities.

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CIMB Research technical publications

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, CIMB

RESEARCH

Alpha Edge monthly

Proprietary of Research & Economics - Reproduction/Escalation of this document requires consents from Head of Research & Economics

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CIMB Research technical publications


RESEARCH

Trendspotter daily


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Forex


RESEARCH

US$ long-term uptrend


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Bloomberg Dollar Index monthly chart


RESEARCH Proprietary of Research & Economics - Reproduction/Escalation of this document requires consents from Head of Research & Economics

Dollar Index consolidation since 2014 has ended

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Yen-US$ monthly chart (112)



Resistance trendline broken few months broken

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Euro weekly chart (1.15)



Bearish Head & Shoulder pattern

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Ringgit monthly chart (RM4.15)



Ringgit in an uptrend against US$

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Ind Rupiah monthly chart (15,244Rp)



Wave 5 to a new high

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Bonds


RESEARCH

Rising US interest rates


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US 10-years govt. bond yield since 1981



Broke resistance trendline one year ago

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Japan 10-years govt. bond yield since 2004 (0.15%)



Broke resistance trendline

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Europe 10-years govt. bond yield monthly chart since 2004 (0.49%)



Broke resistance trendline

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Malaysia 10 years govt. bond yield (4.1%)



Triangle consolidation since 2008

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Indonesia 10-years govt. bond yield monthly chart (8.8%)



Just broke out of consolidation

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Stockmarket


RESEARCH

A tired stockmarket


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S&P500 weekly chart (2,767)



Support at 2,650 and 2,230

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MSCI Asia ex-Japan monthly chart (602)



Resistance at 630pts

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KLCI monthly chart (1,736)



Major support at 1,720

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FBMSC monthly chart (13,491)



Resistance at 16,000

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MSCI Emerging Market Index weekly chart (980)



Support at 970pts

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MSCI Emerging Market Index weekly chart (980)



Support at 970pts

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Cycles



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KLCI long-term cycles (10.5 years)



Next cycle low at mid-2019?

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Joseph Cycle



Next upcycle in 2022?

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Other investments



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Gold prices (US$1,221)



Major triangle?

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CPO (RM2,270)



Major triangle consolidation has ended?

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Summary

• US$ in a major long-term uptrend.

• Global bond yields have bottomed and is trending higher

• Stock markets are breaking down

• KLCI 10.5 year cycles bottom in mid-2019?

• Gold and CPO alternative investments?

Documents

CIMB Investment Market outlook...Market outlook Defence is the best offence 2 Important Notice This presentation has been prepared by CIMB Investment Bank Berhad (“CIMB”) exclusively