Climate Change

October 29, 2007

By: Mr. Slater (Ms. Slater’s father-in-law)

The Greenhouse Effect

CO2 Levels are More Than 30% Higher Than Pre-industrialized Levels

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900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000260

280

300

320

340

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380

CO

2 C

once

ntra

tion

(ppm

v)

372ppm in 2002

Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere are now at levels unprecedented in at least the past 400,000 years

The Carbon Cycle

What is a Carbon Sink?

Green House Gases (GHGs)

Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide Sulphur hexafluoride Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s) Perflurocarbons

Up to 20,000 times more potent than CO2

Come from diverse sources: from wetlands and cow burps to transportation and industry

Average Global Temperature Has Increased by Approximately 0.60 Since the Late 19th Century

Temperature Patterns in Canada will Change Substantially by 2050

What are GCM’s?

Number of days above 300 C

Heat Waves in Canadian Cities are Expected to Become More Frequent

… and warmer weather means the possible arrival of exotic diseases

Much of Canada’s Coastline is Sensitive to Sea-level Rise

… and melting sea ice has implications for Arctic sovereignty

The General Effects

• Higher temperatures will effect eco-systems• Flooding of coastal areas• Storms more severe and frequent• Floods and Droughts

Floods

Lightning damage

Ecologicaldisaster

Wind damage

Structural damage

Loss oflife

Extreme Events Can Cause Many Types of Disasters

Fires

The Risk of Forest Fires Will Increase

Coastal Erosion Means Buildings, Roads and Railways Will Have to be Moved

…and Finally There are Small Risks of Impacts of Catastrophic Proportions

Primary Sources of GHGs

Burning fossil fuels Industry Transportation

Refrigeration systems Deforestation Agriculture and livestock Volcanoes

The problem is not just about increasing sources, but also the reduction of ‘sinks’

Not Just Warming

Some places will experience cooling

Longer Growing Season

Animals winter outside

Changes in water distribution – flooding and

droughts

Melting glaciers and rising sea level

Spread of Tropical Diseases

Storms will be more frequent and more violent

Impacts of Climate Change

Impacts are felt on many different scales Local – urban heat Regional – Arctic, Prairies, Maritimes National – Becomes a warmer country Global – Environmental refugees

Impacts in Other Countries Have Implications for Canada

Environmental refugees 3 billion more in water stressed regions 200 million more displaced by sea level rise 80 million more malnourished

Offshore disasters Financial assistance Peace making/keeping

International conflict over dwindling natural resources Darfur (Sudan)

State of Play of Climate Change

Science is clear – serious problem that needs to be dealt with immediately

Must be dealt with at global level Emission reductions can take place anywhere

in world Global Convention 1992 Kyoto Protocol 1997 Protocol ratified in 2002, in effect 2003

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Kyoto Target -6%: 571 Mt

Projected 2010 Business as Usual Emissions:809 Mt

1990 Emissions: 607 Mt

Business as Usual “Kyoto Gap”: 270 Mt

Mil

lio

n t

on

nes

(M

t)

CO

2 eq

uiv

alen

t

2001 Emissions:

720 Mt

Canada’s “Kyoto Gap”Climate Change Plan

… and Canada is Furthest From its TargetP

er

cen

t d

iffe

ren

ce b

etw

ee

n 2

00

2 e

mis

sio

ns

an

d K

yoto

ta

rge

ts

*These countries have reached or surpassed their Kyoto target in 2002 but in France and the United Kingdom emissions started to increase in 2002

So What is Needed?

New sources of energy

New technologies

New ways of doing business

Responsible extraction and use of resources

New social/community values

Regulations, taxes, trade in emissions

Incentives, rewards, recognition

Leadership

What Has Happened Since Kyoto?

Main elements of program in place but very slow implementation

Conservative government backed out but now is legally obligated to follow-up on Kyoto commitments

30% increase in CO2 emissions

Commissioner on Environment and Sustainable Development “Achieving success on a problem as

pervasive as climate change demands that all levels of government, industry and business groups, science, academia, and civil society organizations collaborate.”

“…developing and deploying new technology will play a key role in building a healthier and more sustainable future. Canadians will have the opportunity to contribute and compete at home and globally.”

Johanne Gelinas, 2006 Commissioners Report to Parliament

Canada’s Clean Air Plan (Oct 2006) New baseline of 2003

Intensity targets up to 2020

Emission caps for sectors 2020 to 2030

National target 45-65% reduction by 2050

Kyoto not mentioned

Canada subject to Kyoto penalties

Good enough?

Takeaways

Climate change is real and already

happening

“greatest challenge to humanity this century”

Global approach essential but Canada not

pulling its weight

Technology is seen as being integral to

combat climate change

Full long-term consequences unknown

The End