Atmosphere Monitoring

Climate ForcingsDr Will Davies, University of Readingand the CAMS 74 teamCAMS 2nd General Assembly, Warsaw, 16-18 June 2017

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C A M S C l i m a t e F o r c i n g s

• We are a climate-focused service based on the CAMS Reanalysis of Atmospheric Composition.

• We provide estimates and uncertainties of radiative forcingexerted by changes in atmospheric composition caused by human activities.

• Our users are involved in the scientific and policy aspects of climate change.

AtmosphereMonitoring • The Earth gets

its energy from the Sun, reflects a third of it, absorbs the rest, then emits longwave radiation back to space.

• The Earth’s surface currently takes in more energy than it emits, and warms.

T h e E a r t h ’ s e n e r g y b u d g e t

Figure 2.11 of IPCC AR5, 2013

AtmosphereMonitoring • Increases in greenhouse

gases decrease the longwave flux emitted to space.

• Changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone perturb shortwave and longwave fluxes.

• Pollution particles (aerosols) increase reflection of shortwave flux to space by interacting with radiation and clouds.

P e r t u r b a t i o n b y h u m a n a c t i v i t i e s

Figure 1.01 of IPCC AR5, 2013

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• Radiative forcing quantifies energy budget imbalances

• Positive radiative forcing leads to a gain in energy in the Earth system.

• Negative radiative forcing leads to a loss of energy.

• Current estimates for various forcing agents are from a variety of methods. CAMS Climate Forcing brings consistency.

R a d i a t i v e f o r c i n g

Figure 8.15 of IPCC AR5, 2013

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• To estimate radiative forcing, the CAMS reanalysis of atmospheric composition datasets is used in radiative flux calculations.

• We also use additional observations, and estimates of atmospheric composition before they were perturbed by human activities.

• Strong focus on uncertainties.

M e t h o d o l o g y

AtmosphereMonitoring • CAMS Climate Forcings gathers

top experts of radiation, greenhouse gases, aerosols, and uncertainty quantification.

• Teams are based at the universities of Reading, Leipzig, and Leeds, and at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg.

• Taken together, CAMS Climate Forcing experts have contributed to every single IPCC Assessment Report since the first in 1990!

E x p e r t i s e

KeithShine

GuyBrasseur

GunnarMyhre

OlivierBoucher

PiersForster

JohannesQuaas

NicolasBellouin

KenCarslaw

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V e r s i o n 0 p r o d u c t s

Average over 2003—2012

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V e r s i o n 0 p r o d u c t s

• Carbon dioxide and methane radiative forcing increased steadily over 2003—2012

• CO2 +14%• CH4 +2%

• Aerosol radiative forcing was expected to weaken because of decreased emissions to improve air quality, but we find that forcing has in fact remained stable.

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Forcing agent SW LW TOA Surf All-sky Cloud-free sky

Carbon dioxideMethane Coming

soon

Tropospheric ozone Coming soon

Coming soon

Coming soon

Coming soon

Coming soon

Coming soon

Stratospheric ozone Coming soon

Coming soon

Coming soon

Coming soon

Coming soon

Coming soon

Aerosol-radiation Coming soon

Aerosol-cloud N/A

P r o d u c t c a t a l o g u e

Stratospheric adjustment done in a simplified way, state-of-the-art method coming soon.

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V e r s i o n 0 p r o d u c t s

http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/cams-climate-forcings/

AtmosphereMonitoring

C A M S C l i m a t e F o r c i n g s

• We are a climate-focused service based on the CAMS Reanalysis of Atmospheric Composition.

• We provide estimates and uncertainties of radiative forcing exerted by changes in atmospheric composition caused by human activities.

• Our users are involved in the scientific and policy aspects of climate change.

• CAMS Climate Forcing is:– University of Reading

• Nicolas Bellouin, Will Davies, Keith Shine

– University of Leipzig• Johannes Quaas, Johannes

Muelmenstaedt– University of Leeds

• Piers Forster, Ken Carslaw, Lindsay Lee, Leighton Regayre, Chris Smith

– MPI-Meteorologie Hamburg• Guy Brasseur, Idir Bouarar,

Natalia Sudarchikova– LMD, UPMC, Paris

• Olivier Boucher– CICERO Oslo

• Gunnar Myhre