CO2 vs Temperature

8/8/2019 CO2 vs Temperature

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CO2 vs temperature: ice core correlation & lag

Abstract

The temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations have been correlated - see eg Petit et al., Nature 1999 - but we know for sure that the temperature was the cause and the concentration wasits consequence, not the other way around. This fact has also been explained in The Great GlobalWarming Swindle . It follows that the C0 greenhouse effect has not been important in thehistory and we shouldn't expect that it will become important in the future.

Special comment for Australian readers on Sep 28, 2007: just yesterday, there was a new paper in Science - Lowell et al., Science 2007 - that showed that CO lagged by about 1,000 yearswhen the last ice age started to end 18,000 years ago

The direction of the causal relationship can be shown in many ways: for example, it is not justCO but other gases such as methane that follow temperature. The hypothesis of CO as the

primary reason wouldn't explain why these other gases are correlated, too. Also, we understandhow oceans react to temperature changes by releasing gases. Finally, the gas concentrations lag

behind the temperature by 800 years, see eg this 2003 paper in Science by Caillon et al.

See also : climate sensitivity & nonlinear relationship between CO and temperature MS Word introduction to the climate debate

Main text

The movie of the former future US president - " An Inconvenient Truth " - has impressed manyviewers: it is an optimized promotion of the alarmist understanding of the global climate.Moreover, it shows a more attractive Al Gore than the old Al Gore whom we know from the2000 campaign.

A few years ago, Gore visited Harvard and with Jochen Brocks, my fellow Fellow, we went tosee him. Jochen is a leftist, of course, but he claimed that Gore looked repulsive, unhuman, andevil. I am a rightist but paradoxically, I never had terribly serious complaints about Gore's looks.

Jangan salah: Saya berpikir bahwa George Bush lebih manusiawi dan terlihat seperti lebih dapatdipercaya dan lebih manusia dari Al Gore, dan aku ingin dia yang terbaik pada hari ulang

tahunnya ke-60 nya! Don't get me wrong: I certainly think that George Bush is more human andlooks like a more trustworthy and more human being than Al Gore, and I wish him the best onhis 60th birthday! Namun demikian, desain mereka bukanlah hal utama yang menentukan

pendapat saya politik dan ilmiah. Nevertheless, their design is not the primary thing thatdetermines my political and scientific opinions.
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Itulah mengapa saya akan membahas isu-isu yang lebih penting, yaitu yang ilmiah. That's why Iam going to discuss more important issues, namely the scientific ones. Argumen yang palingkuat di film Al Gore adalah grafik yang menunjukkan hubungan antara konsentrasi karbondioksida dan suhu ekstraksi dari data es dalam 650.000 tahun terakhir. The most powerfulargument in Al Gore's movie were the graphs showing the correlation between the carbon

dioxide concentrations and the temperature extracted from ice data in the last 650,000 years.

Gambar 1: Hubungan antara suhu dan konsentrasi diekstraksi dari inti es (klik untuk memperbesar). Figure 1 : Correlations between the temperature and the concentrations extractedfrom the ice cores (click to zoom in). Gabungan grafik oleh Thomas Stocker dari UniversitasBern, Swiss Combined graph by Thomas Stocker of University of Bern, Switzerland

(Kebetulan, jika Anda peduli, konsentrasi CO2 dan CH4 ditentukan oleh analisis kimia langsungdari suhu gelembung ini direkonstruksi dari konsentrasi air berat beku -. Air dengan atomhidrogen yang normal H digantikan oleh hidrogen berat D , yang dikenal sebagai deuteriumdengan -. dalam gelembung yang sama Mengapa Karena cuaca hangat ada, semakin mudah ituuntuk molekul uap air berat untuk sampai ke ketinggian yang memadai -? berpikir tentangdistribusi Maxwell-Boltzmann - dan untuk bergabung dengan awan hujan yang adalahmenambahkan es ke lapisan es selama tahun yang sama.) (Incidentally, if you care, theconcentration of CO2 and CH4 is determined by a direct chemical analysis of the bubbles. Thetemperature is reconstructed from the concentration of frozen heavy water - water with the onenormal hydrogen atom H replaced by the heavy hydrogen D, known as the deuterium - in thesame bubbles. Why? Because the warmer weather there was, the easier it was for heavy water vapor molecules to get to a sufficient altitude - think about the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution -and to join clouds whose precipitation was adding ice to the ice sheet during the same year.)

Tidak diragukan lagi, hubungan antara temperatur dan CO hampir sempurna. No doubt, thecorrelation between the temperature and CO is nearly perfect. Tidak diragukan lagi, iklim diBumi dalam 650.000 tahun sebelum revolusi industri dapat dijelaskan dengan sangat akurat oleh
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satu fungsi waktu. No doubt, the climate on the Earth in the 650,000 years before the industrialrevolution can be described very accurately by a single function of time. Tetapi jika dua hal, Adan B, yang berkorelasi, bukan berarti hubungan kausal tertentu? But if two things, A and B, arecorrelated, does it imply a particular causal relationship?

Dalam fisika klasik, jawabannya adalah Ya dasarnya. In classical physics, the answer isessentially Yes. Korelasi sempurna baik harus berarti bahwa A disebabkan oleh B, atau Bdisebabkan oleh A, atau keduanya A dan B disebabkan oleh sesuatu yang lain, yaitu D. Ia benar-

benar jelas apa jawaban Al Gore: suhu ditentukan oleh konsentrasi karbon dioksida. The perfectcorrelation must either mean that A is caused by B, or B is caused by A, or both A and B arecaused by something else, namely D. It is completely clear what is Al Gore's answer: thetemperature was determined by the concentrations of carbon dioxide. Itu sebabnya kita semuaakan mati di neraka dengan Hari Kemerdekaan 2016 kecuali kita semua menerima Al Goresebagai penyelamat utama, mengabaikan bahwa ia bukan Kristus melainkan anti-Kristus sebagaiRae Ann telah melihat. That's why all of us are going to die in a hell by The Independence Day2016 unless all of us accept Al Gore as the ultimate savior, neglecting that he is not a Christ but

rather an anti-Christ as Rae Ann has noticed. ;-) ;-)

Gambar 2: Iklim ilmuwan mengekstrak inti es. Figure 2: Climate scientists extract the icecores.

Menurut Gore, konsentrasi karbon dioksida dari catatan es inti (lihat gambar di atas) telah berkembang sesuai dengan kehendak bebas dan tidak memerlukan penjelasan apapun. Accordingto Gore, the concentration of carbon dioxide from the ice core records (see the picture above)was evolving according to its free will and does not require any explanation. konsentrasi itu bisasaja disebabkan oleh perusahaan-perusahaan minyak yang dimiliki oleh berbagai mammoth. Theconcentration could have been caused by oil companies owned by various mammoths.Bagaimanapun, Al Gore tidak perlu menjawab mengapa konsentrasi karbon dioksida perubahandi tempat pertama. At any rate, Al Gore does not have to answer why the carbon dioxide
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concentration was changing in the first place. Dia tidak perlu menjawab karena dia adalah penyelamat itu. He does not have to answer because he is the savior.

Sekarang bayangkan bahwa Anda memiliki kebebasan untuk berpikir tentang hal-hal ini secararasional, sebagai lawan quasithinking metareligious bawah pengaruh pencucian otak gila. Now

imagine that you have the freedom to think about these things rationally, as opposed tometareligious quasithinking under the influence of crazy brainwashing. Pertama, mari kita cobadengan latihan berikut. First, let us try with the following exercise.

Apa penyebabnya dan apa pengaruhnya What is the cause and what is its effect

Bayangkan bahwa Anda mengetahui bahwa setiap kali Anda mencium metana di ruang tamu,Anda juga dapat menemukan orang tertentu dalam ruangan yang sama. Imagine that you find outthat whenever you smell methane in the living room, you can also find a certain person in thesame room. korelasi hampir sempurna. The correlation is nearly perfect. Apa kesimpulan? Whatis the conclusion? Seseorang bisa mengusulkan bahwa metana dalam ruangan adalah penyebab

yang menciptakan kehadiran orang tersebut. Someone could propose that the methane in theroom is the cause whose presence creates the person. Saya akan mengusulkan "alternatif" penjelasan: itu adalah orang yang menciptakan metana setiap kali dia berada di ruangan. I would propose an "alternative" explanation: it is the person who creates the methane whenever he is inthe room. Pilih penjelasan yang Anda inginkan. Choose any explanation you want.

Aku mengambil metana karena akan memainkan peran dalam contoh utama, juga. I pickedmethane because it will play a role in the main example, too.

Anda harus menyadari bahwa grafik di atas menunjukkan korelasi sempurna tidak hanya antarasuhu (A) dan konsentrasi karbon dioksida (B), tetapi juga antara suhu (A) dan konsentrasimetana (C). You should notice that the graph above shows a perfect correlation not only betweenthe temperature (A) and the carbon dioxide concentration (B), but also between the temperature(A) and the methane concentration (C). Apa penyebabnya dan apa konsekuensi jika tiga jumlahtersebut berkorelasi begitu baik? What is the cause and what is the consequence if threequantities are correlated so nicely?

Perhatikan bahwa jawabannya tidak bisa unik a priori. Note that the answer can't be unique a priori. Paling-paling salah satu dari tiga jumlah - A, B, C - bisa menjadi penyebab utama. Atmost one of the three quantities - A,B,C - can be the primary cause. Yang mana? Which one?Jelas, jika Anda memilih salah satu gas, penjelasan Anda akan asimetris dan tidak akanmenjelaskan semua korelasi dengan cara yang memuaskan. Clearly, if you choose one of thegases, your explanation will be asymmetric and it won't explain all the correlations in asatisfactory way. Jika Anda mengatakan bahwa konsentrasi karbon dioksida menentukan suhu,Anda masih harus menjelaskan mengapa konsentrasi metana (dan konsentrasi lain seperti N2O,dalam hal ini) mengikuti ketergantungan waktu yang sama. If you say that the carbon dioxideconcentration determines the temperature, you must still explain why the methane concentration(and other concentrations such as N2O, for that matter) follows the same time dependence. Anda

jelas akan membutuhkan penjelasan yang berbeda. You will clearly need a different explanation.Jika efek rumah kaca CO adalah yang utama, Anda tidak dapat menjelaskan mengapa


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konsentrasi CO dan CH4 bertepatan . If the CO greenhouse effect is primary, you can't explainwhy the concentrations of CO and CH4 coincide. Kecuali Anda menemukan penjelasan lainyang tak terelakkan dari kehalusan ini, teori anda akan sangat lemah. Unless you find another inevitable explanation of this subtlety, your theory will be very weak.

Sebenarnya, kami memiliki lebih dari argumen logis semacam ini. Actually, we have more thanlogical arguments of this kind. Kita tahu dengan sangat baik mengapa hubungan kausal adalahyang berlawanan. We know very well why the causal relation is the opposite one. Bayangkan

bahwa Anda memiliki botol kecil dengan 385 mililiter Coke. Imagine that you have a small bottle with 385 milliliters of Coke. Ini awalnya berisi 4 volume karbon dioksida: jika Andamengekstrak karbon dioksida dari satu botol Coke untuk botol kosong pada kondisi normal,Anda akan mengisi empat botol. It originally contained 4 volumes of carbon dioxide: if youextract carbon dioxide from one bottle of Coke to empty bottles at normal conditions, you willfill four bottles. Saya harus belajar hal-hal ini ketika kita membahas berbagai isuthermodynamical dengan Brian Greene ketika ia sedang menulis buku kedua sangat bagus. I hadto learn these things when we discussed various thermodynamical issues with Brian Greene

when he was writing his second excellent book. Sekarang, bayangkan bahwa

CO telah bocor sedikit dan hanya ada 1 volume CO yang tersisa di botol. Now, imagine that the CO hasleaked a bit and there is only 1 volume of CO left in the bottle.

Ambil botol ini untuk mobil Anda yang internal volume 1 kubus meter yaitu 1 juta mililiter.Take this bottle to your car whose internal volume is 1 cube meter ie 1 million milliliters. Karbondioksida dari Coke membuat 385 ppm (bagian per juta) dari volume mobil Anda - seperti rasio diatmosfer. The carbon dioxide from the Coke makes 385 ppm (parts per million) of the volume of your car - just like the ratio in the atmosphere.

Tiba-tiba, Anda melihat hubungan yang aneh antara konsentrasi dan karakter gelembung di botol

di satu sisi, dan suhu di dalam mobil Anda di sisi lain. Suddenly, you notice a strange correlation between the concentration and character of the bubbles in the bottle on one side, and thetemperature in your car on the other side. Anda akan memiliki dua interpretasi mungkin. Youwill have two possible interpretations. Entah CO bocor di Coke menentukan suhu di dalammobil Anda karena Coke dengan lebih CO agak sedikit lebih gelap untuk Matahari yang

bersinar untuk windows Anda (atau untuk sinar inframerah tercermin dari kursi), atau suhu didalam mobil Anda menentukan bagaimana gelembung berperilaku dalam botol. Either theleaking CO in the Coke determines the temperature in your car because the Coke with moreCO is a bit darker for the Sun that is shining to your windows (or for the infrared rays reflectedfrom the chairs), or the temperature in your car determines how the bubbles behave in the bottle.Yang penjelasan yang Anda pilih? Which explanation do you choose? ;-) ;-)

Saya pikir setiap orang waras jelas memilih suhu sebagai penyebab dan konsentrasi sebagaikonsekuensinya. I think that any sane person obviously chooses the temperature as the cause andthe concentrations as a consequence. Setiap orang yang pernah mencoba membuka sebotol limunselama hari yang panas harus tahu mengapa. Everyone who has ever tried to open a bottle of lemonade during a hot day must know why. Hot cairan tidak mampu menyerap gas-gas begitu

baik. Hot liquids are not able to absorb gases so well. lautan hangat tidak mampu menyerap gas-gas atmosfer baik. Warmer oceans are not able to absorb atmospheric gases either. Jelas, jika


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suhu naik, kurang karbon dioksida dan metana dapat terikat ke perairan laut, itulah sebabnyakonsentrasi mereka di atmosfer naik: proses ini dikenal sebagai outgassing. Clearly, if thetemperature goes up, less carbon dioxide and methane can be bound to the ocean waters, whichis why their concentration in the atmosphere goes up: this process is known as outgassing.Lihat: Ocean penyerap karbon, outgassing, dan hukum Henry's See : Ocean carbon sink,

outgassing, and Henry's law Penjelasan ini jelas bekerja baik untuk CO serta gas CH4 dan lainnya yang dapat munculseperti N2O. This explanation obviously works both for CO as well as CH4 and other gases thatcould appear such as N2O.

Ada mekanisme lain yang memberikan kontribusi pada korelasi antara suhu dan konsentrasi.There are many other mechanisms that contribute to the correlation between the temperature andthe concentrations. Sebagai contoh, frekuensi kebakaran mungkin meningkat bila suhu yanghangat, dan kebakaran membuat lebih CO. For example, the frequency of fires may increasewhen temperatures are warmer, and fires create more CO . Selain itu, pertumbuhan tanaman danhewan (konsumen dan produsen CO ) tergantung pada suhu - namun kontribusi yang paling

penting untuk pekerjaan hubungan sedemikian rupa sehingga suhu primer dan sekunder konsentrasi. Also, the growth of plants and animals (consumers and producers of CO ) dependson temperatures - but the most important contributions to the correlation work in such a way thatthe temperature is primary and the concentrations are secondary. Jika Anda berpikir untuk sementara waktu, Anda akan menyadari bahwa contoh dengan mobil sebenarnya cukup banyak realistis dan kemampuan air untuk mengikat gas adalah lebih kuat pengaruh dari efek rumahkaca. If you think for a while, you will realize that the example with the car is actually prettymuch realistic and the ability of water to bind gases is much stronger an effect than thegreenhouse effect.

Bahkan jika Anda tidak percaya dan disukai kesimpulan bahwa penjelasan Al Gore bahwa

metana dan CO

membuat orang atau pemanasan, Anda akan memiliki masalah untuk memprediksi masa depan. Even if you did not believe that conclusion and preferred the AlGore's explanation that methane and CO create the person or the warming, you will have

problems to predict the future. Sementara hubungan antara A, B, C hampir sempurna di masalalu, kita telah melanggar ini keselarasan sempurna karena kami memproduksi CO dan CH4

pada tingkat yang berbeda. While the correlation between A,B,C was nearly perfect in the past,we have violated this perfect harmony because we produce CO and CH4 at different rates. Kamisengaja dapat melakukannya. We can deliberately do so. Anda tidak akan mendapatkan prediksialami untuk suhu karena data korelasi sendiri tidak bisa mengatakan betapa dua gas

berkontribusi. You won't get any natural prediction for the temperature because the correlationdata itself can't tell you how much the two gases contribute.
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Gambar 3: Peta dari danau Vostok. Figure 3: A map of the Vostok lake. Semakin Anda pergi,semakin jauh Anda bisa sejarah karena es sedang ditambahkan di bagian atas. The deeper yougo, the further you get to the history because the ice was being added at the top. tahun yang

berbeda terlihat seperti berbagai lapisan es, dalam analogi dengan cincin pohon. Different yearslook like different layers of ice, in analogy with tree rings.

Lebih baik Anda harus melihat pada fisika, dan fisika memberitahu Anda cukup jelas bahwakemampuan air untuk mengikat gas lebih penting efek untuk korelasi dari efek rumah kaca, danfakta ini akan mempengaruhi pengukuran dari The Subglacial Danau Vostok Sistem, seorangRusia pusat di Antartika (lihat gambar di atas). You should better look at physics, and physics

tells you quite clearly that the ability of water to bind gases is more important an effect for thecorrelation than the greenhouse effect, and this fact will influence the measurements from TheSubglacial Lake Vostok System, a Russian center in Antarctica (see drawing above). Suhuadalah penyebab utama dari jumlah sekunder seperti berbagai konsentrasi - dan saya harapkan

para pendukung teori "pemanasan global" untuk setuju dengan saya bahwa suhu harus kuantitasmendasar. The temperature is the primary cause of secondary quantities such as variousconcentrations - and I would expect advocates of a "global warming" theory to agree with methat the temperature should be the fundamental quantity. Deskripsi ini menjelaskan semua


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hubungan dan tidak hanya beberapa dari mereka. This description explains all the correlationsand not just some of them.

Sama seperti semua penjelasan potensial lain, masih mengatakan apa-apa tentang asal-usulkuantitas "primer", dalam hal ini suhu kasus. Much like all other potential explanations, it still

says nothing about the origin of the "primary" quantity, in this case temperature. Jika suhumemang kuantitas primer dan mendasar, mengapa hal itu mengubah cara hal itu? If temperatureis indeed the primary and fundamental quantity, why was it changing the way it did?

Ada banyak kontribusi terhadap variasi suhu kita sebagian tahu - seperti berbagai siklusastronomi berkala atau variasi matahari - dan ada banyak orang lain yang kita tidak tahu baik atau kita tidak tahu sama sekali - seperti efek kacau nonlinier dalam pembentukan berbagai jenisawan. There are many contributions to the temperature variations we partially know - such asvarious periodic astronomical cycles or solar variation - and there are many others that we don'tknow well or we don't know at all - such as nonlinear chaotic effects in the formation of differentkinds of clouds. Tapi saya berpikir bahwa meskipun kita tidak mengetahui beberapa hal pasti dan

secara keseluruhan, kita masih bisa cukup banyak yakin bahwa hipotesis tertentu hampir pasti benar. But I think that even though we don't know some things for sure and in their entirety, wecan still be pretty much sure that certain hypotheses are almost certainly incorrect. hipotesis

bahwa konsentrasi CO adalah primer dan menentukan konsentrasi CH4 dan suhu adalah salahsatu hipotesis yang sangat tidak mungkin seperti itu. The hypothesis that the CO concentrationwas primary and it determined the CH4 concentrations and the temperature is one of suchextremely unlikely hypotheses.

Dan itulah memo itu. And that's the memo. Tapi mari kita menambahkan titik lucu dan penting.But let us add a cute and important point.

Apa tahun lag 800 berarti What does the 800-year lag mean Ada ada cara sederhana untuk menunjukkan bahwa suhu adalah penyebab dan konsentrasikarbon dioksida merupakan konsekuensi, bukan sebaliknya. There exists a simpler way to showthat the temperature was the cause and the carbon dioxide concentration was a consequence, notthe other way around. Jika Anda perhatikan dengan teliti pada grafik, Anda akan melihat bahwakonsentrasi karbon dioksida yang tertinggal di belakang suhu dengan 800 tahun. If you look carefully at the graphs, you will see that the carbon dioxide concentrations lag behind thetemperature by 800 years. Ada banyak makalah yang ditemukan dan dilaporkan lag. There have

been many papers that found and reported the lag. Salah satu yang paling akurat dan yangterakhir adalah ini kertas 2003 di Ilmu oleh Caillon et al. (teks lengkap, klik). One of the newestand most accurate ones is this 2003 paper in Science by Caillon et al. (full text, click).
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Pada grafik di atas (klik untuk memperbesar), masa lalu adalah di sisi kanan, waktu berjalan kekiri. On the graph above (click to zoom in), the past is on the right side, time goes to the left.Anda dapat melihat bahwa suhu Antartika mulai perubahan pertama, dan CO merespon denganlag 800-tahun. You can see that the Antarctic temperature starts to change first, and CO responds with a 800-year lag. Metana masih berkorelasi dengan baik. Methane is still correlatedwith both. Grafik bukanlah hal baru. The graph is not new. Hari ini, kami memiliki banyak grafik yang lebih akurat seperti ini, banyak yang berasal dari masa lalu yang lebih jauh. Today, we havemany more accurate graphs of this kind, many of which are from more distant past. Kami jugamemiliki analisis yang lebih rinci oleh Stott et al. We also have a more detailed analysis by Stottet al. (Ilmu 2007) akhir zaman es terakhir 19.000 tahun yang lalu di mana CO tertinggal sekitar 1.000 tahun, juga. (Science 2007) of the end of the last ice age 19,000 years ago where CO lagged by about 1,000 years, too.

Penjelasannya jelas: lautan yang besar dan hanya mengambil berabad-abad bagi mereka untuk pemanasan atau dingin sebelum mereka melepaskan atau menyerap gas. The explanation isobvious: oceans are large and it simply takes centuries for them to warm up or cool down beforethey release or absorb gases.

Pekerjaan membuktikan lag baru-baru ini dijelaskan dalam Scientific American sertaRealClimate di mana mereka juga pada dasarnya menyatakan bahwa Anda dapat dengan mudahmenghasilkan mesin waktu selama Anda ingin melakukan perjalanan hanya 800 tahun - atau
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apapun yang kurang dari 5.000 tahun - untuk masa lalu Anda. The work proving the lag wasrecently explained in Scientific American as well as RealClimate where they also essentiallyclaim that you can easily produce a time machine as long as you want to travel only 800 years -or anything less than 5,000 years - to your past. ;-) ;-)Lihat juga: CO lag dan bagaimana alarmists berpikir See also: CO lag and how alarmists

think Aku menyerahkannya kepada Anda apakah Anda pelajari hanya data keras atau juga interpretasianeh mereka, dan apakah Anda akan berpikir bahwa orang RealClimate yang waras sesuaidengan penafsiran ini. I leave it up to you whether you learn just the hard data or also their

bizarre interpretation, and whether you will think that the RealClimate people are sane accordingto this interpretation. Saya pribadi tidak berpikir begitu. I personally don't think so. Mereka akan

benar jika mereka mengatakan bahwa 90% dari waktu, suhu dan konsentrasi gas bergerak bersama, dan jika Anda bisa menyembunyikan sisanya 10% dari data, Anda tidak bisamempelajari arah hubungan kausal. They would be right if they said that 90% of the time, thetemperature and gas concentrations move together, and if you could hide the remaining 10% of the data, you couldn't learn the direction of the causal relationship.

Tetapi para ilmuwan yang tidak ingin menutup mata mereka dapat melihat ini 10% kritis daridata, juga. But scientists who don't want to close their eyes can look at these critical 10% of thedata, too. Hasil analisis ini, adalah bahwa dampak suhu terhadap konsentrasi gas jauh lebih kuatdaripada pengaruh sebaliknya, termasuk efek rumah kaca. The result of such an analysis is thatthe impact of temperatures on gas concentrations is much stronger than the opposite influences,including the greenhouse effect. Fakta ini dapat diekstraksi dari periode waktu dimana tren

berubah tetapi karena hukum-hukum fisika sendiri tidak berubah, sangat jelas bahwa pada periode yang tersisa, masih benar bahwa pengaruh suhu terhadap gas lebih kuat daripada pengaruh sebaliknya. This fact can be extracted from the time periods where the trend ischanging but because the physical laws themselves don't change, it is very clear that in the

remaining periods, it is still true that the influence of temperature on the gases is stronger thanthe opposite influence. Satu-satunya cara untuk menyembunyikan kesimpulan ini adalah penyensoran, witch hunt, dan pembakaran bidah dipertaruhkan. The only way to hide thisconclusion is censorship, witch hunts, and burning of heretics at stake. Tidak ada cara ilmiahuntuk menyangkal kesimpulan ini jelas dari data. There is no scientific way to deny this clear conclusion from the data.

Komentar-komentar di beberapa artikel yang efek rumah kaca masih bisa menjadi penting hanyakabut bahwa penulis termasuk dalam agar mereka "politis tidak benar" kesimpulan ilmiah untuk mendapatkan diterbitkan. The comments in some of these articles that the greenhouse effectcould still be important is just fog that the authors included in order for their "politicallyincorrect" scientific conclusions to get published. kabut ini mungkin dimasukkan ke dalammakalah oleh reviewer-alarmists, namun kabut ini tidak masuk akal sama sekali. This fog was

probably incorporated into these papers by reviewers-alarmists, but this fog makes no sensewhatsoever.

Ini mengikuti dari analisis data yang efek rumah kaca yang tidak bisa terlalu penting di skalawaktu multi-millenium. It follows from an analysis of the data that the greenhouse effect couldn'thave been too important at the multi-millenium timescale.
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Lampiran:'s mengangkat Gore Appendix: Gore's lift

Jika Anda telah melihat film Al Gore, Anda juga mungkin ingat lift. If you have seen Al Gore'smovie, you may also remember the lift. Dia berargumen bahwa karena sudah ada hubungan

antara CO2 dan temperatur selama siklus glaciation, pertumbuhan baru-baru ini signifikan CO2dapat langsung diterjemahkan ke pemanasan besar. He argued that because there has been acorrelation between CO2 and the temperature during the glaciation cycles, the significant recentgrowth of CO2 may be directly translated to a huge warming.

Tapi kita sudah tahu bahwa ramalan ini dipalsukan, baik dengan memahami berlawanan arahhubungan kausal, seperti yang dijelaskan di atas, atau hanya dengan melihat angka-angka dasar:But we already know that this prediction is falsified, either by understanding the oppositedirection of the causal relationship, as explained above, or simply by looking at the basicnumbers:

Selama zaman es, konsentrasi itu 180 ppm (bagian per juta) dan tumbuh sampai 280 ppm ataulebih selama (hangat) interglacials. During the ice ages, the concentration was 180 ppm (parts per million) and it grew to 280 ppm or so during the (warm) interglacials. Hal ini meningkatsebesar 100 ppm CO2 didampingi oleh 8 C pemanasan atau lebih. This increase by 100 ppm of CO2 was accompanied by 8 C of warming or so. Tetapi peningkatan yang sama CO2 dari 280

ppm pada 1800-380 ppm pada tahun 2005 hanya ditemani oleh pemanasan 0,7 C diukur ataulebih (bahkan jika kita berasumsi bahwa semua pemanasan diamati adalah buatan manusia),lebih dari satu urutan lebih kecil dari 8 magnitudo C. But the same increase of CO2 from 280

ppm in 1800 to 380 ppm in 2005 was only accompanied by the measured 0.7 C warming or so(even if we assume that all of the observed warming is man-made), more than one order of magnitude smaller than 8 C. Kita hanya tahu bahwa pemanasan yang disebabkan oleh CO2

paling tidak 10 kali lebih kecil dari Al Gore mencoba untuk menyarankan dengan latihan-nya.We simply know that the warming caused by CO2 is at least 10 times smaller than Al Gore triesto suggest with his exercise.

Kebetulan, jika Anda peduli, setelah berabad-abad atau beberapa milenium, korelasi antara CO2dan temperatur akan mendapatkan dikembalikan lagi. Incidentally, if you care, after manycenturies or a few millenia, the correlation between CO2 and the temperature will get restoredagain. Namun rincian bagaimana itu akan terjadi memang merepotkan, juga: dalam beberapaabad setelah kita berhenti menambahkan CO2 ke atmosfer, lautan akan menyerap atau"menyedot" sebagian besar CO2 "berlebihan". But the details how it will happen areinconvenient, too: in a few centuries after we stop adding CO2 to the atmosphere, the oceans willabsorb or "suck" most of the "excessive" CO2. Oleh karena itu, mereka juga akan membatalkan

pemanasan kecil dengan 1 C atau sehingga CO2 yang berlebihan telah menyebabkan. Lautanmemiliki kapasitas besar. Therefore, they will also undo the small warming by 1 C or so that theexcessive CO2 has caused. The oceans have a huge capacity.
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CO2 vs Temperature