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Coffee Market Situation 120 th International Coffee Council 25-29 September 2017 Yamoussoukro

Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

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Page 1: Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

Coffee Market Situation

120th International Coffee Council25-29 September 2017

Yamoussoukro

Page 2: Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

Prices

Page 3: Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

Daily prices: Last two years

Page 4: Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

Supply & Demand

Page 5: Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

World coffee production

• 153.9 million bags in crop year 2016/17

• 1.5 % increase on 2015/16

• Arabicas ↗ 10.2%• Robustas ↘ 10.6%

153.9151.6148.7151.2

Page 6: Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

World coffee production (2)

Page 7: Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

Production in Brazil

• Current ICO estimate of 2017/18 production: 50.5 million bags

• Domestic consumption estimated at 20.5 million bags

* Estimated

Page 8: Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

Production in Colombia

Page 9: Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

High export volumes…

Page 10: Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

…led to a build-up of inventories in importing countries

Page 11: Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

World consumption

• Decreasing by 0.3% to 155.1 million bags in coffee year 2016/17

• Still strong demand in many countries, particularly some traditional markets

• But biggest potential is emerging markets and exporting countries

155.1155.5151.8149.0

Page 12: Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

Balance

Page 13: Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

Supply/Demand Balance

Page 14: Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

Conclusions

Page 15: Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in

2016/17

Page 16: Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18

Page 17: Coffee market outlook - International Coffee Organization · Coffee market in deficit for third consecutive year in 2016/17. Robusta expected to rebound in 2017/18. Thank you. 250

Thank you