Consor&umMee&ng10/07/2010

WhoisHi6ngUs?

NewHardware(UsingFundsfromPSCAA)

•  Neededtoreplaceagingandfailingdatastorage.

•  Neededtomakethe1.3kmdomainlargerandtrulyopera&onal(twiceaday,outto48h)

•  Neededtoupdateandupgrademainclustertoproduceallproductsfaster.

NewHardware

•  NewRAIDdiskarraywith16TBofstorage(fasterdisks).

•  NewSAGE.8nodes,with8Nehalemprocessorseach.Withinfinibandcommunica&onbetweennodes(40Gbpersecond).Majorgamechanger…weshouldscaletoall64processors.2‐4&mesincreaseinspeed.

NewHardware

•  NewSQLdatabaseserver(quad‐coreprocessor).HandlesallourdataaccessandtheSQLdatabaseinwhichitisstored.Oldmachineswerefailing.

•  TheoldsagemachineswillbemovedtotheAOLclusterfortheEnKFdataassimila&on.Willallowmovingfroma3‐htoa1‐hcycleandimprovequalityoftheanalyses(moremembers).

1.3kmdomaintoday

Onceaday,36hr,00UTCcycle

Comparison‐12km

ProposedChanges

•  Numberonepriority…PugetSound•  ExpanddomaintoencompasstheColumbiaGorgeandtheeasternCascadeslopes– AQandforecas&ngissuesforGorge– Becerorographicprecipita&onforfloodandriverforecas&ng—amongotherneeds.

– Becersupportforfiresoneasternslopes.•  Twiceaday,outto48hr.

ProposedDomain(olddomainindicated)

NewDragParameteriza&onattheSurface

•  Asnotedinpreviousconsor&ummee&ngs,DaveOvensandIhavebeenworkedtofixamajorissuewiththeWRFmodelingsystem—windstoostrongandgeostrophicatandnearthesurfaceandexcessivemixingintheloweratmosphere,par&cularlyunderstablecondi&ons.

•  Differentboundarylayerschemesdidn’tdothetrick.

NewDragParameteriza&on

•  Completeddetailedverifica&onoftheproblem.

Anewdragsurfacedragparameteriza&on

•  Lastmee&ngIreportedonapromisingapproach‐‐‐increasingthesurfaceroughnessdependentonthevariabilityofthesubgridscaleterrain.

•  PlausiblethatcurrentPBLschemearemissingthedragoffeaturesthatarenotresolved.

•  Inourtes&ngthissummerwefoundthatalthoughitworkedduringthewinter,welostrunsduringthesummer.Switchedtothecloselyrelatedu*,buts&llhadproblems.

•  Bychanging,parametersinsurfacelayer,messingupsurfacefluxesunderlessstablecondi&ons.

NewParameteriza&on

•  Consul&ngwithJimyDudhiaofNCARcameupwithanewapproach—enhancingu*onlyintheboundarylayerscheme(YSU).

•  Thisworkedforallseasonsandnostabilityproblems.

•  Triedmanydifferentapproachestodothis.

38DifferentExperiments:Mul&‐monthevalua&onwinterandsummer

Yesterday,wentopera&onalwithexperiment71

EvenBecer

•  Ourmethodappearstohurtslightlyduringstrongwindspeedandnearmaximumtemperaturesinsummer.

•  Nextstep—couldhaveitfadeoutthen,possibilitybydependingonRichardsonnumber.

•  Actually,makessomesense…some&mestheatmosphereismixingproperly.

Wanttoseemore?Checkoutthetestwebpage:

•  hcp://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/windbias/

Aside…oneofthethingsthatmakeusdifferent(andbecer)thanother

mesoscaleNWPisverifica&on

..butthereisalotmorethatwecando…

ImprovedLandUseChangeReplacecurrentlandusewith

higher‐resolu&onMODISlanduse

OriginalversusModis

BiggestImpactsShouldBeintheSummer

EnKFDataAssimila&on:MajorProgress

•  High‐resolu&ondataassimila&onandshort‐termforecastsusingWRFmodelandourlocaldataassets.

•  Nowworkingat36kmand4km.•  ConvertedtotheNCARDARTinfrastructure•  Goingfullopera&onalnextweek,withathree‐hourcycle.•  WithnewcomputersfromSageupgrade,willbeabletogo

to1‐hr.•  Willhaveanewwebsitewithgraphicsonlineintwoweeks.•  PreparedtoprovidegridstoConsor&ummembers•  Remember,thissystemisessen&alprobabilis&c…

uncertaintyforanalysesandforecasts!

Analysis–SLP2010‐06‐0600UTC

Torn DART

WRFRT DART

WRFRT DART

DART

Analysis–SLP2010‐06‐0612UTC

Torn DART

WRFRT DART

WRFRT DART

RMSErrors:ACARSWindTotalWind(m/s)

2.65DARTEnKF2.74GFSWRF3.50Torn/AncellEnKF

MajorImprovementsarePossibleandWillBeExploredNow

•  Becerbiascorrec&on•  Ver&callocaliza&on•  One‐houranalysiscycle•  Assimila&ngmoreobserva&ons(e.g.,coastalandotherradars!)

•  Hybridsystem—EnKFplusnudgingor4DVAR

•  LaunchingofforecastseveryXhours.

Goals

•  Analysisofrecord…highresolu&on,physicallyconsistentanalysesforairqualityandotheruses.

•  Highqualityanalysesandshort‐termforecastsforopera&onalneeds.

HardwareRefresh

•  Tomaintainreliability,hardwaremustbereplacedaser3‐5years.Harddiskstypicallystartfailingaser2‐3years.Warran&esoverat3‐yearmax.

•  MikeGilroyofPSCAAhasplayedamajorroleintheplanningandfundingthesereplacements.

•  Weneedtosolidifythisplanning,par&cularlynowthatheisgone.

•  Fortunately,helesusamajorgis..replacementofourmaincomputa&onalnodes.

NewNowcas&ngApplica&ons

Tomorrow:SNOWATCH?Snowatch