CONSUMER MARKET OUTLOOK · 03 Consumer Market Outlook ... market shares and industry KPIs, market and segment-specific reports as well as a total of more than ... Hot Drinks Clothes

CONSUMER MARKET OUTLOOK PRODUCT & METHODOLOGY Hamburg, May 2017

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Product & Methodology

03 Consumer Market Outlook – Product Overview

15 Approach & Methodology

› Modeling process

› Data sources

› Market sizing

› Forecasts

21 FAQ

25 Contact information

OVERVIEW

2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights

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PRODUCT OVERVIEW

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OUR SERVICES


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Product Overview

What is the Consumer Market Outlook?

The Statista Consumer Market Outlook provides data on

market sizes and forecasts for more than 150 consumer

products and passenger cars. The service currently covers

16 key categories of consumer goods as well as 10 classes of

cars along the 70 most relevant makes.

The data is based on market models that allow the quick

identification of market segments and growth opportunities

with a global perspective.

Our goal

With the Consumer Market Outlook, we provide intuitive

access to reliable, comparable and immediately process

able information on the most important consumer markets

in North America, Europe, Asia and other regions.

Clear market segmentation

Realistic growth rates

Revenue performance forecast

Direct comparability of all countries and markets

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Product Overview

MORE THAN 150 SEGMENTS IN 16 CATEGORIES


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Value and volume forecasts, market shares and industry KPIs, market and segment-specific reports as well as a total of more than 150 product segments.

Alcoholic Drinks Cosmetics and Personal Care

Toys and Games

Non-Alcoholic Drinks Tissue and Hygiene Paper

Consumer Electronics

Hot Drinks Clothes Household Appliances

Tobacco Shoes Furniture

Food Eyewear Passenger Cars – NEW!

Home and Laundry Care

Accessories

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GLOBAL CAR SALES DATA - ALL IN ONE PLACE


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Product Overview -Automotive

Explore Car Sales on a Global Scale

The automotive category within the Statista Consumer

Market Outlook (CMO) offers data on worldwide new car

sales of passenger cars, starting with EU and the USA.

Countries to follow: China, Japan, S. Korea, India, Brazil,

Canada, Switzerland, Mexico and others.

Drill down by Car Segment and Make

10 international car segments

70 major makes, including: Audi, BMW, Citroën, Fiat, Ford,

GMC, Great Wall, Hyundai, Jaguar, Jeep, Kia, Land Rover,

Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Opel, Peugeot, Renault,

Saab, Škoda, SsangYong, Subaru, Tesla, Toyota, Volkswagen,

Volvo and many more

Mini Cars Executive Cars Small SUVs

Small Cars Luxury Cars Large SUVs

Medium Cars Sports Cars

Large Cars Minivans

Revenue, Volume and Prices

Interactive statistics let you view cross-sections of make

and segment by country, providing you with information

on Revenue, Volume Sales, Price per Unit, Key Market

Indicators.

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For the complete classification, please check our table.

COMPARABLE INTERNATIONAL CLASSIFICATION


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Product Overview -Automotive

Statista Segment US Car Segment European Car Segment

Alternative name Example Models

Mini Cars Minicompact Cars A - Mini Cars City Cars, Microcars Fiat 500, Hyundai i10, Peugeot 107

Small Cars Subcompact Cars B - Small Cars Light Cars, Superminis Citroën C3, Ford Fiesta, Volkswagen Polo

Medium Cars Compact Cars C - Medium Cars Small Family Cars BMW 1 Series, Seat León, Volkswagen Golf

Large Cars Mid-size Cars D - Large Cars Large Family Cars, Compact Executive Cars, Entry-level Luxury Cars

Honda Accord, Peugeot 407, Škoda Superb

Executive Cars Large Cars E - Executive Cars Full-size Cars, Mid-size Luxury Cars Audi A6, Jaguar XF, Mercedes-Benz E-Class

Luxury Cars Large Cars F - Luxury Cars Full-size Luxury Cars, High-end Luxury Cars, Oberklasse

Audi A8, Jaguar XJ, Mercedes-Benz S-Class

Sports Cars Sports Cars S - Sports Coupes Two-seaters Aston Martin DB9, Jaguar XK, Mercedes-Benz CLK

Minivans MPV, Minivan M - Multi-Purpose Cars

MPV, Multi-Purpose Cars, People Carrier

Citroën C3 Picasso, Mazda 5, Toyota Verso

Small SUVs Small SUVs J - Sport Utility Cars Mini SUVs, Compact SUVs, Mini 4x4 Daihatsu Terios, Kia Sorento, Peugeot 4007

Large SUVs Large SUVs J - Sport Utility Cars Mid-size SUVs, Full-size SUVs, Large 4x4

BMW X5, Land Rover Discovery, Volvo XC90

https://public.tableau.com/profile/petar.sapun#!/vizhome/AMOClassification/AMOClassification

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Product Overview - Automotive

EASILY ACCESSIBLE CONSUMER INSIGHTS


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Price research and modelling

Revenue estimates and forecasts in the automotive category

are based on Volume Weighted Average Prices (VWAP) of the

base models. This consumer oriented approach takes into

account the Manufacturer Suggest Retail Price (MSRP)

including taxes for each vehicle in the basic configuration.

Thus it represents a theoretical value – actual revenue is

influenced by various factors including different drivetrain

technologies and motorizations, exterior and exterior design

elements, equipment etc. as well as financing options. But:

The VWAP model provides a comparable value for the

economic performance of each manufacturer across all

markets from a consumer centric point of view.

Forecasting

The forecasting model in the automotive category of the

CMO takes into account the historic data on brand, segment

and country level as well as product properties, aiming at

forecasting consumer demand rather than manufacturer

output. New releases, model facelifts or environmental

policy changes are currently not taken into account.

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Product Overview - Automotive

MORE THAN 70 AUTOMOTIVE MAKES


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A Abarth Daewoo Jeep Mercedes-Benz S Saab

Acura Daihatsu K Kia MG SEAT

Alfa Romeo Dodge L Lada Mia Škoda

Aston Martin DR Motor Company Lamborghini Mini Smart

Audi F Ferrari Lancia Mitsubishi SSangYong

B Bentley Fiat Land Rover Morgan Subaru

BMW Fisker Lexus N Nissan Suzuki

Bolloré Ford Lincoln O Opel T Tata

Buick G GMC Lotus P Perodua Tesla

C Cadillac Great Wall LTI Peugeot TH!NK

Caterham Cars H Honda M Mahindra Porsche Toyota

Chevrolet Hummer Maserati Proton V Vauxhall

Chrysler Hyundai Maybach R Ram Volkswagen

Citroën I Infiniti Mazda Renault Volvo

D Dacia J Jaguar McLaren Rolls-Royce

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Product Overview

COVERAGE – 40 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE


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40 countries1

About 1.2 billion households with more than 4.3 billion consumers Roughly 79% of global GDP

Europe:

Belgium Bulgaria Denmark Germany Estonia Finland France United Kingdom Ireland Italy Croatia Latvia Lithuania Netherlands Norway Austria Poland Portugal Romania Sweden Switzerland Slovakia Slovenia Spain Czech Republic Hungary

North America:

Canada USA

Asia:

China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Thailand Vietnam

1 Due to data availability not all markets are available in all countries

From May 2017

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a4/Flag_of_the_United_States.svg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/archive/f/fa/20091103090801!Flag_of_the_People's_Republic_of_China.svg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/41/Flag_of_India.svg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9f/Flag_of_Indonesia.svg

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9e/Flag_of_Japan.svg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/66/Flag_of_Malaysia.svg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/48/Flag_of_Singapore.svg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/09/Flag_of_South_Korea.svg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a9/Flag_of_Thailand.svg

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HEALTH AWARENESS PUTS PRESSURE ON BIG SODA Product Overview – Analysis of category trends


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While soft drink consumption has been in decline in the United States for over two decades, bottled water has gained in popularity as a non-caloric liquid refreshment alternative. With city councils all over the country debating sugar or soda taxes, bottled water is projected to overtake the soft drink category in 2019 in terms of per capita consumption.

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FINLAND HAS HIGHEST CONSUMPTION FOR COFFEE IN EUROPE Product Overview – International comparisons


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Each year, Europeans drink on average about 500 cups of coffee. Consequently, they like to spend a lot of money on their much-loved bean beverage: roughly 47€ per year. The Finns tend to take the longest coffee breaks and top the list of per capita consumption with nearly 10kg of coffee per Finn and years – this translates to more than 1.300 cups!

Coffee consumption per capita in 2015 in kg

United Kingdom (1.6kg) Finland (9.9kg)

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More than 90,000 interactive statistics

› All data directly available to download

› Completely integrated into the Statista database

Product Overview

KEY BENEFITS


+ Intuitive access to key figures of the most important international consumer markets*

+ Clear and comprehensive market segmentation at product level in compliance with international standards (e.g. ISIC, HS etc.)

+ Full international data comparability

+ Enormously multifaceted international data base, which uses information from official national and international statistics, information provided by trade associations, our own research and the comprehensive Statista database.

+ Standardized key figures for realistic assumptions and comparisons (per capita spending, per capita consumption etc.)

+ More than 300 country-specific structural indicators on population, demographics, economy, infrastructure and politics

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* 25 European countries; North America, Switzerland and Norway will follow in Q4 2016, additional regions in 2017

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› Data synthesis and validation

› Analysts‘ assessments

› International comparisons

› Easy-to-understand visualization

› Various downloadable formats

› Further process your data immediately

› More than 18,000 sources in our Statista database

› Primary market research

› External market studies

Product Overview

START YOUR SEARCH WITH OUR RESULTS


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Our approach

Data gains significance through relevant context, clear visualization and clear definitions. We combine these three factors in order to maximize the informative value of the data and statistics and to be able to make comparisons. Our goal: Making your search for information easier.

Our experts aggregate and keep up-to-date all relevant market data from numerous reliable sources, check and compare information and carry out plausibility checks of external analysts‘ assessments, measured data, survey results and performance indicators of relevant market players.

We will carry out the time-consuming and complex data research and synthesize the large range of data available into a consistent and clear view on the development of markets for you.

Research

Analysis

Visualization

APPROACH & METHODOLOGY

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Approach & Methodology

STEP BY STEP MODELLING PROCESS


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DATA COLLECTION DATA

PROCESSING

MODELING &

FORECASTING VALIDATION OUTPUT

• A team of international

experts identifies and

evaluates all data

available

• Most important

sources: Databases of

international

institutions, national

statistical offices,

associations and

specialist publications

• Standardization of data

in compliance with

internationally

comparable formats

(e.g. ISIC, HS etc.)

• Imputation of missing

data

• Case-specific selection

of optimal method

• Bottom-up modeling of

the market segments

and markets

• Driver-based forecasts

of the development of

the next 5 years

• Plausibility and

consistency checks of

all data Series

• Data validation using

external sources

• Summarizing markets

into KPIs: Market size,

growth, structure, per

capita consumption

etc.

• Preparation of data for

the Statista platform

including download

function

• Cyclic updates of

existing markets

• Incremental addition of

new markets (OTC

pharmaceuticals,

sporting goods…)

• Expansion of

geographic coverage

(beginning with Asia)

• Market and segment

reports (starting with

Hot Drinks)

Ste

p

Descri

pti

on

Compilation of a

comprehensive,

international pool of data

sources

Normalization,

imputation, weighting

and aggregation of data

Market modeling, market

sizing and forecasting

Validation and

adjustment of forecasts

Summarization into

market-KPIs and

preparation for the

Statista platform

Regular updates of the

existing markets,

addition of new markets,

industry reports

1 2 3 4 5

Go

al

UPDATES /

REPORTS

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MAIN DATA SOURCES


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› The main data sources feeding into the Consumer Market Outlook are publicly available statistics from national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies and the relevant trade press. In addition, the Statista database with more than 18.000 individual sources in total is used to complement and enhance the footing of the market models.

› The main types of data used to model are statistics on industrial production, international trade, prices and consumption. For forecasting in particular, structural indicators on the macroeconomic environment (GDP, population, inflation etc.) are taken into account.

› All data included in the Consumer Market Outlook are carefully crafted estimates based on market models with multiple sources and analyst’s judgment. Contrary to other platform content on Statista we therefore do not reference a single source for every timeline. Instead, Statista is the source.

Statistical Offices International Institutions

Trade Associations

Companies and trade press

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STANDARDIZING RAW DATA

18 2017, Statista GmbH, Strategic Market Insights


› The raw data used in the market models is usually

structured according to national standards (e.g. NAICS or

North American Industry Classification System) which are

translated into the segment structure of the Consumer

Market Outlook using internationally standardized

reference tables so comparability of the market

composition is ensured across all countries.

› The segmentation of the Consumer Market Outlook itself

is based on the UN standards of the “International

Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activity”

(ISIC), the “Harmonized System” (HS) and the

“Classification of Individual Consumption According to

Purpose” (COICOP).

› Individual missing or defective data points and timelines

are approximated using various imputation techniques. In

the case of totally missing data a driver-based cluster

analysis is undertaken that takes into account data from

similarly structured countries and differentials of known

related indicators (e.g. upstream data on key

commodities)

Food

Alcoholic Drinks

ISIC

CPC

HS

COICOP

…

NAICS

NACE

JSIC

CSIC

SITC

BEC

… …

Fashion

Consumer Electronics

…

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ASSESSING THE MARKET SIZE



› The basic modelling concept is the domestic supply

where consumption is estimated bottom-up using the

available supply of any given product in a certain year. It is

calculated with data on industrial production and

international trade (supply = production + imports –

exports).

› The domestic supply is valued at retail prices by taking

into account manufacturer’s selling prices (MSP) and

import prices and adding typical markups for wholesale

and retail distribution. In addition, Statista conducts

additional price research to validate the results.

› Other sources such as household budget surveys on a

national level and results of market research from retail

and consumer panels complements the demand side

estimates.

› All markets are assessed at retail prices including

country- and product-specific sales taxes and excise

duties.

Domestic Supply

Production Imports Exports + -

Price Modeling

MSP Markup

Wholesale Markup Retail

Market

% %

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DRIVER BASED FORECASTING


Trend forecast based on analyst judgement

› The CMO forecasts are driver based projections of the past

trend into the future.

› The first step in this process is determining realistic trend

lines using previously modelled data. The type of

underlying trend is determined by analyst judgement (e.g.

linear, s-curve, etc.) and takes into account the

characteristics of the market and the region.

Combining drivers and trends

› Drivers are the determining factors that are driving a

market to change. CMO Market Drivers are based on:

› Market research e.g. price trends, new technological

developments, etc.

› Macro-economic factors e.g. inflation, GDP, etc.

› Market-specific factors e.g. internet penetration,

supermarket spending on particular products, etc.


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Original/Modeled data

CMO unique market driver A combination of different macroeconomic and market specific factors

CMO forecast Powered by market drivers and trends

Trend line

FAQ

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Consumer Market Outlook

FAQ - GENERAL


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Who can access the Consumer Market Outlook?

The Consumer Market Outlook data is included in all Statista Corporate & Enterprise accounts with ongoing contracts.

What kind of data does the Consumer Market Outlook contain?

• Market Value

• Market Volume

• Price Per Unit

• International comparison

• Market indicators (e.g. consumer spending and inflation)

How many markets are available in the Consumer Market Outlook?

• 16 verticals (e.g. Hot Drinks) are divided into

• A total of more than 150 product groups (e.g. instant coffee)

Can I download the data?

Yes. You can download the data as an Excel- or PNG-file. Download buttons can be found in the different box diagrams in the lower left corner. An extension of the export functionality including more download formats and the possibility of downloading all data for a selected market segment at once is planned and will soon be available.

When is the data being updated?

The market data is updated once a year. However, in some cases the data for individual markets is updated on an ad hoc basis (e.g. when new, relevant data has been released or significant changes within the market have impact on the projected development).

A time stamp at the bottom of each diagram shows the latest available update. Update cycles vary from market to market in terms of data availability.

Will there be more markets in the future?

New regions, market segments or completely new markets will be added in the future. Data on Asian countries is due to be published in early Q3 2017. Please feel free to contact us for further information on upcoming markets.

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FAQ – DATA & METHODOLOGY


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How are the markets defined?

All markets are defined at the beginning of each content page. You can read a short introduction about what products, services or categories are included in our market scope and what is out-of-scope.

Furthermore, we provide a brief explanation and market definition that is accessed by clicking on the download button on top of each content page. If a question is still unanswered please get in touch with us. We are always happy to help you out and to improve our product.

Which data sources are the bases for the market data?

The Consumer Market Outlook uses a large number of different, market specific sources for the analytical modeling of each market. The most important sources are official statistics on production and commerce, household budget survey, information provided by trade associations and companies as well as consumer surveys. An overview of the sources for each market can be found in the methodology. In addition to sources that are only used for single markets, there are some sources with general data such as macro-economic data including, among many others, the World Bank, the European Commission’s central database and OECD.

How are the market values calculated?

We use a bottom-up approach to derive our market sizes and trends. Our research of the underlying data allows us to understand the processes that drive the markets and how the development is influenced. The foundation of our market model is the domestic supply within the respective product segment, which is valued at retail prices. The price modeling is carried out based on the manufacturer price as well as product- and country-specific trade margins. All revenue numbers include any applicable sales tax and excise (e.g. coffee or beer tax).

Our analysis methods combine different types of data to get a holistic view of the markets from different perspectives in terms of economic development, changes in consumer behavior and social trends. These data points include statistical macro-data on a country-level, insights from market research, as well as analysis of trade associations in each market.

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FAQ – TECHNICAL ISSUES & SUPPORT


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Which currency rates are used for the forecasts?

All monetary data is standardized to EUR values to allow further calculation. For the EUR to USD conversion the average exchange rate of the last available full year is used and projected assuming fixed rates for the forecast period to avoid the influence of exchange rate deviations on the general market dynamic. The source for the historical data is oanda.com. Currently, there isn’t the option to directly switch between currencies. Please visit de.statista.com/outlook for EUR figures and statista.com/outlook for USD figures. A function to easily change between currencies is planned.

Can you directly compare the market data from different countries?

A country comparison is given in the „Global Comparison Box“, which is not yet editable, but shows the top five countries (by market value) plus the currently selected country within the respective segment. A methodological comparability of the figures of individual countries is maintained at all times. In order to intensively compare and calculate with different country values, we will deliver enhanced download functionalities to improve data accessibility in standard formats such as XLS-files in the near future.

Who do I contact in case of feedback or questions regarding the content of the Consumer Market Outlook?

For all content support requests please get in touch with our customer support. The request will be forwarded immediately to the responsible market analyst who can give you relevant feedback.

Who do I notify about technical errors?

Please make sure that you are logged-in with a Statista Corporate or Enterprise Account to have full access to our exclusive Consumer Market Outlook features. With all technical support requests please get in touch with our customer support. The request will be forwarded immediately to our IT department who will fix the errors as soon as possible.

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Your contact persons

CONTACT


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Statista GmbH Johannes-Brahms-Platz 1 20355 Hamburg Deutschland Web: de.statista.com

Statista, Inc. 55 Broad Street; 30th floor New York, NY 10004 United States Web: statista.com

Statista Ltd. Hudson House, 8 Tavistock St London WC2E 7PP United Kingdom Web: statista.com

Nicolas Loose Head of Market Research Strategic Market Insights [email protected]

Dr. Friedrich Schwandt CEO [email protected]

Documents

CONSUMER MARKET OUTLOOK · 03 Consumer Market Outlook ... market shares and industry KPIs, market and segment-specific reports as well as a total of more than ... Hot Drinks Clothes