Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Current status and outlook on international bioenergy markets and trade: exporters,

Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management

Current status and outlook on international bioenergy

markets and trade: exporters, importers and consequences for

logistics

Bulk Port, Terminals and Logistics 2012, 20th - 22nd May 2012,

Mövenpick Hotel, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

André FaaijCopernicus Institute – Utrecht University

Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40 CLA Bioenergy IPCC - SRREN


Biomass & bioenergy flows according to

IEA + other refs (2008)

[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]


(Source: Sikkema et al.,Bio FPR 2011 in IPCC, 2011)

Global wood pellet trade 2009

1 PJ = 60,000 tonnes


(Source: Lamers, RSER, 2011 in IPCC, 2011)

Global biofuels production and main international trade 2009


European pellet markets

N. A

merica (ocean ships)

2

1

4

Bulk large scale power

Bulk medium DH&CHP

Bulk pellets

households

Pellets in bags

householdsMajor exporter

s

2

4

1

33

NE Europe (coasters)

Central Europe (trucks)

[Sikkema et al, BioFPR, 2011]


Global production and trade of the major biomass commodities

(2008)

Mton in 2008

Bioethanol Biodiesel Wood pellets

Global production

52.9 10.6 11.5

Global net trade 3.72 (*) 2.92 Approx. 4

Main exporters Brazil US,Argentina,IndonesiaMalaysia

Canada,USA,Baltic countries,Finland, Russia

Main importers USA,Japan, EU

EU Belgium,Netherlands,Sweden, Italy

(*) An estimated 75% of the traded bioethanol is used as transport fuel. [Heinimö & Junginger, Biomass & Bioenergy, 2009]


Phases in bio-energy use and market

development…1. Waste treatment and process residues; use on site, low costs.2. Local use of (more expensive) forest and agricultural

residues; some infrastructure development.3. Regional biomass markets, larger scale utilisation,

increasingly complex logistics; supportive policies needed.4. National markets with complex set of suppliers and buyers;

often increased availability.5. Increasing scale, cross-border flows; role for cultivated

biomass; bilateral activities.6. Global commodity market; pricing mechanisms; complex

interlinkages with existing markets (food, forestry, feedstocks)

[Faaij, Energy Policy, 2006]


2050 Bioenergy Potentials & Deployment Levels

2008 Global Energy Total

Chapter 2 Possible

DeploymentLevels

2011 IPCCReview*

Land Use3

and 5million

km2

Chapter 10Modelled

DeploymentLevels for CO2 Concentration

Targets

Past LiteratureRange ofTechnicalPotentials0-1500 EJ

Glo

bal P

rimar

y En

ergy

Sup

ply,

EJ/

y

2008 Global Biomass Energy

2050 GlobalEnergyAR4, 2007

2050 Global Biomass

AR4,2007

<440 ppm

440-600 ppmTechnical

Potential

2050 Projections

Minimum

median75th

Maximum

100

300

150190

80

265300

Technical PotentialBased on 2008

Model and LiteratureAssessment

118

20 25

25th

Percentile

2000 Total Biomass Harvest for Food/Fodder/Fiberas Energy Content

[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]


Global RE supply by source in Annex I (ANI) and Non-Annex I (NAI)

countries in 164 long-term scenarios (2030 and 2050).

Thick black line = median,Coloured box = 25th-75th percentile,Whiskers = total range across all reviewed scenarios.

[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]


Global primary energy supply of biomass in 164 long-term scenarios in

2020, 2030 and 2050, grouped by different categories of atmospheric

CO2 concentration level in 2100

[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]


IEA Biofuel Roadmap

Global biofuel supply grows from 2.5 EJ today to 32 EJ in 2050 Large-scale deployment of advanced biofuels will be vital to meet the

roadmap targets

Fina

l ene

rgy

(EJ)


Biofuel Production Costs 2010-50

• Most conventional biofuels still have some potential for cost improvements

• Advanced biofuels reach cost parity around 2030 in an optimistic case

Production costs shown as untaxed retail price

[IEA Biofuels Roadmap]


Biomass supply and demand in 2020

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK

Mto

e p

rim

ary

bio

ma

ss

Supply potentials and net domestic consumotion of biomass for bioenergy (2020)

NREAPS supply

NREAPS demand

Green-X domestic supply

Green-X demand: Low Import

Green-X demand: High Import

[Hoefnagels et al, UU/Task 40, 2011]


Simulated Biomass trade flows 2020

RU

FI

SE

FR

UA

ES

NO

TR

PL

DE

IT

UKBY

RO

IE

LT

BG

AT

LV

HU

CZ

PT

RS

GR

EE

SK

BA

HR

NL

CH

DK

BE

MD

AL

SI

MK

ME KS

CY

LU

MT

MC

RU

FI

SE

FR

UA

ES

NO

TR

PL

DE

IT

UKBY

RO

IE

LT

BG

AT

LV

HU

CZ

PT

RS

GR

EE

SK

BA

HR

NL

CH

DK

BE

MD

AL

SI

MK

ME KS

CY

LU

MT

MC

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Import non-EU

Low Import scenario High Import scenario

Year: 20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

2009 2015 2020

(pellets)Low

ImportHigh

ImportLow

ImportHigh

ImportTotal trade (Mtoe) 1.6 5.4 6.2 12.6 17.4Total trade (Mt wood pellet eq.)* 3.8 12 14 29 40Of which Intra-EU 55% 38% 32% 52% 32%Of which Inter-EU 45% 62% 68% 48% 68%*) Mt eq. = million metric tonne pellet equivalent (18 MJ/kg)

[Hoefnagels et al, UU/Task 40, 2011]


[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

Driving forces, dimensions, scales…


Good news on criteria frameworks and frontline of

debate:• Debate has come to it’s senses a bit.• Recognition that iLUC for biofuels

alone is inconsistent: it is about management of land use.

• Spillover effect from biofuels (< 1% of land for food) to agriculture & livestock; COOL!!!.

• More attention for synergies (e.g.: Committee Corbey, Netherlands, 2010, GSB initiative, 2010)


Overview and comparisonof initiatives to guarantee sustainability of

bioenergy

Preliminary results: 67 initiatives (regulation + systems) included• All relevant for (some) sustainability issues and/or• Various parts of the bioenergy value chain

20

16

17

11

3

Biomass and Bioenergy Biofuels Forestry* Agriculture* Social*

Dam et al., Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2010


overview and comparisonof sustainability certification

schemes• 28 initiatives cover the sustainability of

biofuels• From which 17 are developing principles

7

11

6

4

1011

7

17

11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Wo

rld

wid

e

Eu

rop

e

US

A

Oth

er

reg

ion

s

Go

vern

me

nt

Ma

rke

t/NG

Os

Inte

rna

tion

al

bo

die

s

Se

t of p

rin

cip

les

(mo

re th

an

1)

ind

eve

lop

me

nt*

Re

gu

latio

n in

pla

ce*

IEA Task 40

Dam et al., Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2010


Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation

Operationalisation of sustainability criteria

costs

land availability

Criteria

deforestation

competition with food production

biodiversity

soil erosion

fresh water

nutrient leaching

pollution from chemicals

employment

child labour

wages

Impact

cropmanagement

system

yield quantity

cost supply curve

[Smeets et al., Biomass & Bioenergy, 2010]


Opposing sketches for the scenario preconditions, technological challenges, and impacts for bioenergy deployment on long term following TypicalIPCC SRES.

[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]


A future vision on global bioenergy markets

(2050…)

[GIRACT FFF Scenario project; Faaij, 2008]

250 Mha = 100 EJ= 5% ag land + pasture = 1/3 Brazilie


Final remarks• Bioenergy trade has rapidly become more

important in total biomass supplies (for pellets in particular).

• Plays major role in balancing out fluctuations in demand (policy!) & supply (variable at large).

• Markets still immature; ethanol closest to commodity trading.

• Rapid growth very likely to continue; in particular (‘advanced’’) pellets (torrefaction); cultivated wood is becoming more important.

• More markets for lignocellulosic biomass emerge: 2nd gen biofuels, biochemicals…

• Only a future when done sustainably…• …while at the same time RE and GHG mitigation

targets cannot be met without large scale bioenergy deployment


Thanks for your attentionFor more information, see:

www.bioenergytrade.org

• Detailed activities• Background information• Results• Events • Subscribe to the newsletter (2x per year).

And:- Sciencedirect/Scopus- http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report

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Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Current status and outlook on international bioenergy markets and trade: exporters,