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CoreLogic Wildfire Risk Analysis

Dr. Thomas C. Jeffery, Ph.D.

©2017 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary.

Agenda

Wildfire Risk

Opportunity and Ability

CoreLogic Wildfire Analysis

Determining wildfire risk

What the analysis does and doesn’t do

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Wildfire Risk

All vegetation is fuel but not all fuel is a wildfire risk

Wildfire risk is based on the opportunity and ability of burning fuel

to ignite a structure

Opportunity = will the burning fuel come into contact with the

structure?

Ability = will the burning fuel release enough heat energy to cause

ignition?

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CoreLogic Wildfire Risk Analysis

Evaluates the risk on the property

Evaluates the risk near the property

Granularity is a key component to accuracy (30 meter grid)

30 meter resolution is not what you see on Google Earth

In addition, the Satellite does not “see” under tree canopy

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Google Earth (typically 1-3 meter resolution)

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Landsat Satellite (30 meter resolution)

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30 meter grid overlay

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CoreLogic Wildfire Risk Analysis

Brushfire Categories identify risk at a specific location based upon

Conditions at a single geographic point Terrain (slope & aspect)

Fire history

Fuel

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CoreLogic Wildfire Risk Analysis

Data Inputs

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Type/amount of vegetation

determines heat energy

South facing = warm and dry

North facing = cool and moist

Prevalence of fires

Steeper = upslope pre-heating

and faster burn rate

Fire History

Veg/Fuel Load

Aspect

Slope

Brushfire

Categories

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CoreLogic Wildfire Risk Analysis

Wildfire Risk Score adds surrounding risk

Combines the Category-based risk + Distance to wildland +

Distance to nearest High risk

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Brushfire Categories are combined with

1) Distance to Wildland, 2) Distance to High Risk

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1

2

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What this type of risk analysis does

Identifies risk based on a granular 30 meter (~ 100 foot) grid.

Calculates distance to nearest High risk

Combines on-site risk with nearby risk

Holistic interpretation of direct flame contact, radiant, and ember

Incorporates changes to fuel/vegetation annually

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What it does not do

Does not include meteorology (rain, humidity, temperature)

Does not evaluate structural mitigation

Wire mesh over attic vents

Dead debris on roof or eaves

Siding/roofing material

Does not evaluate small scale changes to fuel/vegetation

Brush clearing immediately around home

Does not include road network

Does not include location of fire stations

Does not determine probability of fire or use fire simulations

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30 meter grid overlay

Distance to West – 60 meters Distance to North – 16 meters

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30 meter grid overlay

Distance to SW – 26 meters

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Thank You