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Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee. March 16, 2010. Introductions Law changes SB 1007 (2010) AIP April 2010 Forecast Effects Preliminary forecast Comparison of effects Roundtable Revocations, those in prison without direct sentence Community corrections - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee
March 16, 2010
• Introductions• Law changes
– SB 1007 (2010)
• AIP• April 2010 Forecast
– Effects– Preliminary forecast– Comparison of effects
• Roundtable– Revocations, those in prison without direct sentence– Community corrections– Other forecast considerations
M57 / HB 3508
• M57 (2008) – RPO, Drug Prior, Drug Quantity• HB 3508 (2009) – Partial Suspension and 30% ET• SB 1007 (2010) – Restrict/Suspend 30% ET
– Crime Commit Dates– March 2010 to July 2011 – No 30% ET– July 2011 to January 2013 – Restricted 30% ET– January 2013 to ….. – 30% ET per HB 3508– Restrictions: Person Felony, Stipulate
Others: …firearm, coercion, corpse, LE animal, treason(!)
– Past 5 years
Popular reasons to go to prison?…survey says… (annual avg. past 4 yrs)
164225 BURG I 661 163425 SEXAB2 N 73 162155 ESCAPE II 23163175 ASSA II 310 163275 COERCION 68 163095 MURDER AG 22164405 ROBB II 279 164395 ROBB III 65 163145 NEG HOMI N 21475992 DEL/MAN BF 276 163115 MURDER 59 163125 MANS II 20163427 SEXAB1 N 260 163205 MISTREAT I 53 163547 CHILD NEG1 19165800 ID THEFT 227 163411 SEX PEN I 53 475892 DEL METH S 18164055 THEFT I 214 163225 KID II 49 811182 DRIV S/R N 18813010 DUII-FELON 182 163355 RAPE III 47 819300 STOLEN VEH 18163160 ASSA IV CF 178 475850 DEL HEROIN 41 475856 MANU MARIJ 16164135 UN USE VEH 177 475880 DEL COCAIN 37 163670 CHILD SEX 15166270 FELON WEAP 148 163365 RAPE II 37 162285 TAMP WITN 15163165 ASSA III 143 163208 ASSA OFFI 35 163684 CHILD SEX1 15164415 ROBB I 135 163118 MANS I 34 MISSING MISSING 14164215 BURG II 122 163235 KID I 32 165013 FORG I 13163375 RAPE I 120 475840 DELMANU BF 32 163465 PUB INDEC 13475890 DELIV METH 118 164325 ARSON I 29 181599 SEX REG CF 12163405 SODO I 93 162205 FAIL AP I 28 162325 HIND PROS 12163185 ASSAU I AT 92 475999 SUB SCHOOL 28 162185 SUPP CONT 11164057 THEFT AGGR 85 811705 FAIL PERF 26 164365 MISCH I 11166220 WEAP USE 78 475860 SELL MARIJ 24 475862 DEL MARJ S 11
AIP
• February Meeting Comments:
• AIP considerations in plea process lessened due to – 20% max reduction– One year minimum? (TS, AIP, TL)
• Program demand lessened
• Will programs be full?
• Will time cuts change?
Preliminary Forecast Direction
• Graph: • Base• Base + New ET• Base + New ET + M57 RPO• Base + New ET + M57 RPO + M57 Drug Prior• Base + New ET +M57 RPO + M57 Drug Prior + M57 Drug Quantity
• Base + New ET + M57 RPO
• Remember: Significant potential for error.
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Jan
2014
Jan
2015
Jan
2016
Jan
2017
Jan
2018
Jan
2019
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Jan
2014
Jan
2015
Jan
2016
Jan
2017
Jan
2018
Jan
2019
…with SB 1007 Earned Time
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Jan
2014
Jan
2015
Jan
2016
Jan
2017
Jan
2018
Jan
2019
…with M57 RPO
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Jan
2014
Jan
2015
Jan
2016
Jan
2017
Jan
2018
Jan
2019
…with M57 Drug Prior
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Jan
2014
Jan
2015
Jan
2016
Jan
2017
Jan
2018
Jan
2019
…with M57 Drug Quantity
Prelim Forecast with All Effects
Preliminary Forecast
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
Jan
20
10
Jan
20
11
Jan
20
12
Jan
20
13
Jan
20
14
Jan
20
15
Jan
20
16
Jan
20
17
Jan
20
18
Jan
20
19
ET With SB 1007 Base
…plus M57 RPO …plus M57 Drug Prior
…plus M57 Drug Quantity (FINAL)
Preliminary Forecast
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Jan
20
10
Jan
20
11
Jan
20
12
Jan
20
13
Jan
20
14
Jan
20
15
Jan
20
16
Jan
20
17
Jan
20
18
Jan
20
19
ET With SB 1007 Base
…plus M57 RPO …plus M57 Drug Prior
…plus M57 Drug Quantity (FINAL)
Comparison Graphs
Forecast with
Earned Time Comparison
• Graphs showing Pre-SB1007 to Post-SB1007 effects
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Jan
2014
Jan
2015
Jan
2016
Jan
2017
Jan
2018
Jan
2019
Post SB1007 Earned Time
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Jan
2014
Jan
2015
Jan
2016
Jan
2017
Jan
2018
Jan
2019
Pre SB1007 Earned Time
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Ja
n 2
01
0
Jan
20
11
Jan
20
12
Jan
20
13
Jan
20
14
Jan
20
15
Jan
20
16
Jan
20
17
Jan
20
18
Jan
20
19
SB 1007 ET M57 RPO M57 Drug Prior M57 Drug Quantity
Post SB1007 Earned Time
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Ja
n 2
01
0
Jan
20
11
Jan
20
12
Jan
20
13
Jan
20
14
Jan
20
15
Jan
20
16
Jan
20
17
Jan
20
18
Jan
20
19
HB 3508 ET M57 RPO M57 Drug Prior M57 Drug Quantity
Pre SB1007 Earned Time
Comparison to Fiscal
• Connect to fiscal except with specific reason to deviate.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan
20
10
Jan
20
11
Jan
20
12
Jan
20
13
Jan
20
14
Jan
20
15
Jan
20
16
Jan
20
17
Jan
20
18
Jan
20
19
Prelim New Estimate Fiscal Estimate
• Roundtable– Revocations, those in prison without direct
sentence– Community corrections– Other forecast considerations
Prior and Updated***
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
16500
17000
Updated Baseline Updated with Effects Prior Baseline Prior with Effects
Preliminary ImpactsAnnual Numbers
• M57 RPO: 200 extra, 2-3 months longer– From 1325 at 24.1 months – To 1525 at 26.8 months
• M57 Drug Prior: +110 at 20.4 months
• M57 Drug Quantity: – About 70 going from 22 to 44 months
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Model Error: Decay vs. Intake
DECAY DOMINATES INTAKE DOMINATES
Inmate Forecast Summary
• Law changes: – Less impact than expected– “Water under the bridge” until…
• Baseline forecast assumes very little change.– Revisit admission assumptions.– Separating baseline change from law change.
• Forecast to 2013 driven largely by decay side.• After 2013, law changes for intakes
Forecast Issues
• Forecast especially difficult – complex changes to system– changes continue through 2013
• Difficult to separate baseline change from law change.
• Additional law change expected.
• Expect higher variance, wider confidence range.
Community Corrections
• M57 Effects– M57 RPO: expected increase vs. prior– Drugs with Prior: no downward departure
• HB 3508 Inactive Probation – 9,500 cases– Forecast does not distinguish: active/inactive– Need DOC input on whether to forecast
• Other Issues?
Prison Admissions
• All admissions less OYA & “administrative”
• Graphs: Past 10 years– Dec 1999 to Nov 2009
• Tables– Early 2000’s, Mid 2000’s, Late 2000’s– Latter 2008, latter 2009 (June through Nov.)
Monthly IntakesFemale, Male, Total
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
199912 200012 200112 200212 200312 200412 200512 200612 200712 200812
Monthly Intakesby Crime Class
0
50
100
150
200
250
199912 200012 200112 200212 200312 200412 200512 200612 200712 200812
PERS
PROP
STAT
Intake Bed*Months
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
PERS
PROP
STAT
