Dynamical downscaling of historical and projected winter precipitation along the Wasatch Range for the CI-WATER project

Dynamical downscaling of historical and projected winter precipitation in the Wasatch Range (for the CI-WATER project)Court Strong, Jim Steenburgh, Trevor AlcottUniversity of Utah, Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Headwaters Project scientists: Roy Rasmussen, Kyoko Ikeda, NCAROutlineBackgroundThe CI-WATER projectWasatch Range precipitation Regional modeling using WRFModel configurationHistorical validation for water year 2008Future research plansSummary

CI-WATER ProjectPurpose is to advance cyberinfrastructure for high performance water resource modelingGoal is to enhance the capacity for water resource planning and management in the Utah-Wyoming regionUtah-Wyoming collaboration funded through the NSF Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR)http://www.uwyo.edu/ci-water/

CI-WATER ProjectMy research goals for the Wasatch Range: Quantify the spread and central tendency of projected orographic precipitation to 2060 Different global climate modelsDifferent greenhouse gas scenariosDifferent initial conditions Provide software that civil engineers can use to quickly generate realistic future precipitation and temperature scenarios

CI-WATER Project: my study regionwikipedia.orgI am currently focused on the Wasatch Range, and I plan to extend the study region to include portions of Wyoming and ColoradoWasatch Range precipitation

Mountain versus valley floor annual cycles

Projection of precipitation interesting for a number of reasons

Key points: Seasonality in precipitation a function of large-scale circulation, geography, and elevation. Large spatial contrasts in timing of precipitation exist, with Utah in a key transition zone. Deserts and basins of western Utah see a spring peak, southeast Utah a monsoonal peak, and high altitude areas a winter peak. Areas not identified above lack a clear signal.

This is clear when comparing Alta and Salt Lake City, sites that are ~30 km apart. Altitude @ KSLC ~1288 m, @ Alta ~2675 m

The precipitation-altitude relationship also exhibits a pronounced seasonality, peaking in Jan and reaching a minimum in Jun.6Wasatch Range precipitation

Mean Annual Snowfall (inches)

Mean Annual Snowfall (inches)50>600600 to 600 to