Crime & Economic Conditions

• Ignores characteristics of individuals

• Do variations in economic conditions correspond to variations in crime rates?– Times of economic depression– Wealthy areas v. poor areas– Crime rate and unemployment rate– Crime rate and the business cycle (economic

downturns)– Degree of inequality - poverty existing near wealth

Early studies

• 1800’s France - crime and poverty - Guerry and Quetelet

– Wealthiest regions more property crime, less violent crime

• Opportunities – more stuff to steal

• Inequality greater within rich area = greater resentment?

• Great Depression (1928-1940) – Henry and Short

– General crime rate does not seem to increase

– Crimes of violence declined

• Business/economic cycles

– Association between poverty and crime

• None: Cho, 1970 - Percentage of people below poverty in 49 largest cities not associated with seven FBI index crimes

• Strong association between poverty and crime:

– Ehrlich - 1940, 50, 60 - association between property crime and poor households

– 1974 - Loftin and Hill - index of structural poverty (infant mortality, education, income, 1-parent families) - strong correlation with State homicide rates

Unemployment and delinquency Hypothesis: Unemployment poverty crime

• Some found no relationship– Glaser and Rice: unemployment reduces delinquency,

maybe because parents are home– Danser and Laub - no relationship at all based on

victimization data, even when controlling for age, gender, race

• Most find a relationship– Many studies report strong positive correlation between

delinquency and unemployment – Calvin – particularly strong relationship for black

youths

Unemployment and adult crime• No or weak relationship

– Freeman - 1983 review of 18 prior studies– Land, Cantor and Russell - 1960 - 1980 - weak negative rel.

• Strong relationship

– Nagel - 50 states ranked on unemployment and crime– Brenner – 1% increase in unemployment = 5.7% increase in

murder– Chiricos - 1987 review of 63 studies: strong support, esp. for

property crime– White – 1970 -1990: decline of mnaufacturing jobs increased

poverty and unemployment increased robberies, burglaries, drug offenses

– Shihadeh – 1970 -1990: decline of low-skill jobs increased poverty increased violence

Problems in Interpreting Research on Economic Conditions

Problem#1: Poverty is subjective

• Relative to locale

• Differently measured

• Unemployment is an unexact concept

– People not actively seeking work are not counted

– Count the under-employed, poorly paid dead-end jobs, bad working conditions

• How people feel about their jobs is not measured

Problem #2: Two contradictory theories

• Relationship between economic conditions and crime is negative– Good economy, low crime– Bad economy, high crime

• Relationship is positive (crime is like any other economic activity)– Good economy, high crime– Bad economy, low crime

• Ploscowe - 1931: support for positive relationship– Increase of economic well-being during 150-year period

accompanied by increase in crime

Good economy greater criminal opportunities more crime

• Gurr – 1977: support for positive and negative relationships between economy and crime– Crime actually declined from 1840’s-1930’s– Later increases may be due to better police reporting– Different causal process at work in each time frame

• 19th. Century - economy pos. related to crime• 20th. Century - economic “distress” had no effect, but

as total productivity increased, so did crime

Unemp.

Crime Index

Unemployment and the Crime Index, 1980-1999

Index Crime Rate, 1980-1999 and U.S. Unemployment Rate

AL

CA

MI

KY

NY

WV

UNEMP

1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Rate (1-9)

Problem #3: Delayed effect of economic change on crime

• Unemployment takes time to increase crime - unemployed don’t feel the full brunt of being out of work until other sources of support are exhausted

• Perhaps there is no corresponding “lag time” for increased opportunities to commit crime - economic improvement immediately increases criminal opportunities

• Cantor and Lang - 1946-1982 - US unemployment rates and crime index - immediate “opportunity” effect and lagged “motivation” effect

As unemployment increased…

– Robbery, burglary and theft immediately decreased but then increased the next year

– Homicide and auto theft decreased, did not increase the next year– No effect on rape and assault

Problem #4: Determining the size of the unit that economic factors affect

• Local conditions are very important– In economically stagnant inner cities, there may be

declining amount of legal work and increasing amount of illegal work (e.g., dealing drugs)

– Early involvement in crime and incarceration may limit later opportunities

– Alienation and diminished expectations– Low-paying work is stigmatized– Violence substitutes for normal social controls– Once socialized into illegal activities, people may continue

them

Problem #5: Determining which factors cause crime (problem of multicollinearity)

• High crime areas have many factors that might cause crime– Poverty– Unemployment– Single-parent households– High density– Poor schools

• Study by Land - most important variables clustered in “resource deprivation/affluence factor

• poverty & income inequality• percent African-American• Percent children not living with both parents

• Poverty: below a fixed level of income or material goods

• Inequality: relative deprivation

• Consistent findings

– Economic inequality associated with homicide

– Economic inequality associated with violent crime

• Firearm violence strongly correlated with inequality after controlling for poverty and access to firearms

• Is it a specific kind of inequality (e.g., white/black)?

– Messner and Golden - 1992 - increased inequality between blacks and whites associated with homicide

– Other studies report mixed results

Problem #6: Distinguishing between poverty and economic inequality

Poverty and Economic Inequality - studies

Poverty and economic inequality -conclusions

• Overall inequality (gap between rich and poor) is associated with violent crime

• Key factor may not be how many poor, but how many wealthy

– When there are only poor people around, crime may be lower

– Economics may have most direct affect on crime within the urban “underclass” - pockets of extreme poverty

Multiple factors?

• Strong association between poverty and violence

• Direct - causal - effect of poverty on crime is mediated by many other variables

– High crime communities may have a host of factors - poverty, unemployment, single-parent households, poor schools