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estimates PM10 . http :// edgar.jrc.it/eolo. emissions and impact of abatement measures. G.Janssens-Maenhout , V. Pagliari, J. Olivier , U. Doering, J. van Aardenne. What EDGAR v4.2 covers Results for particulate matter Example of coal industry Example of road transport. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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AGU, December 2010 1
Current EDGAR Project team: G. Janssens-Maenhout, M. Muntean, R. Petrescu, A. Meijide, V. Pagliari, D. Guizzardi, J. Olivier (PBL), J. Peters (PBL)
http://edgar.jrc.it/eolo
What EDGAR v4.2 coversResults for particulate matter
Example of coal industryExample of road transport
estimates PM10
emissions and impact of abatement measures
G.Janssens-Maenhout , V. Pagliari, J. Olivier , U. Doering, J. van Aardenne
AGU, December 2010 2
Time periods: • 1970 – 2008 historical annual emissions (some also monthly) • 2005 - 2050 scenarios with POLES/ IMAGE growth rates
Chemical substances: • Direct greenhouse gases: CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 • Ozone depleting substances: CFCs HCFCs• Air pollutants: CO NOx NMVOC SO2 NH3 PM10 PM2.5 BC
Spatial allocation: Activity & emission data on 0.1° x 0.1° grid cells using grid maps for urban/rural population density, animal density, power/industrial plants, coal mines, oil/gas fields, road network, shipping/aircraft routes, rice fields, crop/grass lands
EOLO datasets v4.1 since August 2010 on line: http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu
What EDGAR covers, are global anthropogenic emissions
AGU, December 2010 3
Activity DataIEA, USGS, FAO,
UN Com. St., FRA …TECHnology& EOP data
Techn. Activity
Data
EMISSIONS
EmissionsGRIDs
0.1°x0.1°Grid maps0.1°x0.1°
Emission FactorsIPCC, Corinair, AP42, sc. mod.
EOP reductions
Red.Emission
Factors
scale EMISSIONS on grids
kton/yr
kji
kjiCjiCkjiCjiCiCC xyREDxyEFyEOPyTECHyADxyEM,,
,,,,,,,,,,, ),(1*),()(*)(*)(),(
EDGARv4 database structure
),(: xsubstanceyyearfEMissionCCountry EOPkTECHjsectorsiwith ,,
AGU, December 2010 4
EDGARv4 versus EMEP for Germany EDGARv4 versus GAINS for China.
Results for Air Pollutants:the example of PM10
Comparison of global PM10 with1) HTAP compilation
(EMEP+GAINS+REAS, gapfilled with EDGAR)
2) IIASA global estimate
AGU, December 2010 5
Sectoral details for PM emissions in EDGAR v4: Comparison with PM10 reported 2005 EMEP emissions (N02 of 2010) yields satisfying results (taking into account large uncertainty for biofuels, diffusive emission sources,…)
Discussion of Particulate Matter:evaluation by intercomparisons
… and no diffusive sources
…because EDGAR does not include
superemitters treatment
… and no diffusive sources
AGU, December 2010 6
Where do PM emission differences in road transport come from ?comparison of EF/EOP with T. Bond (2007, 2004):
Example of control measures in road transport
Similar EF for diesel and petrol But EDGARv4.1 opted for no “superemitters”A 10% share emitting 10x as much implies 2x total emissions
AGU, December 2010 7
Comparison of sectoral PM10 emissions for selected countries in
2005 between EDGARv4 and HTAP v1 (i.e. EMEP/EEA data for countries of the EMEP domain, REAS data for
Japan & India, GAINS data for China)
PM10 emissions do not include: abrasive emissions in road transport
and construction (two significant diffusive emission sources),
because many countries do not report these, and there is presently no unique
scientific methodology to estimate these emissions worldwide.
AGU, December 2010 8
Example of abatement in energy industry: Coal fired plants
TJ/yrTJ/yr
Germany China
Coal in electricity generation
is still major cause of world
PM10
AGU, December 2010 9
-20%
Example of control measures in road transport: Passenger cars
Diesel passenger cars Petrol passenger carsTJ/yr TJ/yr
To be checked
AGU, December 2010 10
AGU, December 2010 11
-20%
BC from global road transport(busses, LDV, HDV, passenger
cars, two-wheelers)shows the same reduction
percentage as PM10
-35%
In EU-27 a stronger reduction is observed in the trend from
the 1990s onwards
AGU, December 2010 12
Example of control measures in road transport
ton PM10/cell
All Reference case
Difference: EU3 – All
Difference: EU1 – All
AGU, December 2010 13
Example of control measures in road transport
World-wide impact of implementing EU control measures
beyond EU1 & EU3:
scenario1: EU1 stagnation scenario 2: EU3 stagnation Reference scenario: all EU control measures
By 2000 much of the world was effectively
meeting “Euro3”
40% extra gain
AGU, December 2010 14
Conclusion and Outlook
Releases: Greenhouse Gases: available on edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu under v4.0 of July 2009 and updated in v4.1 of August 2010Air Pollutants: available on edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu under v4.1 of August 2010PM10 and update to 2008: final checks ongoing, release soonFurther upgrade EDGARv4 ongoing: PM2.5, BC/OC, completion of LULUCF, region-specific technology mixes, technology-specific gridmaps
EDGAR is a tool to analyse consistently throughout the world impacts of technologies with related emission standards
thanks you for attention/feedback