Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar - World Public Libraryuploads.worldlibrary.net/uploads/pdf/20150410081930leake_with_co… · 1.1: Bifurcation and transition to chaos 1.2: Schematic ‘self-organising

Risk Reduction in NRM - Leake i

Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar Risk Reduction in Natural Resource Management

John E Leake

Risk Reduction in NRM - Leake ii

Risk Reduction in NRM - Leake iii

! !!!!!

Intellect and Morality Precede Development

!TSU Press is an imprint of Thaksin University, Songkhla, Thailand. Located in the South close to the border with Malaysia, the region served by the university comprises the diverse cultures that have together shaped the area. From the great Srivijaya era, through the periods of Indianization and Chinese and European trade to the modern Thai nation, the region has its unique linkages across the ASEAN region and beyond. TSU Press proudly presents some of the work of its staff, high performing doctoral students and associates of Thaksin University from around the globe.

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Risk Reduction in NRM - Leake iv

© Copyright retained by the author. The text words may be copied in any form in context for educational and related purposes. For other purposes, permission should be requested from the author. The Institute for International Development, Level 1, 19 North Terrace, Hackney, South Australia 5069 Australia and Environmental Risk Science and Audit in association with Thaksin University Press, Songkhla, Thailand

National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Author: Leake, John E. author. Title: Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar : risk reduction in natural resource management / John E Leake ISBN: 9780646900582 (pbk.) Notes: Includes bibliographical references and index. Subjects: Cyclone Nargis, 2008. Emergency management--Burma. Emergency management--Citizen participation. Other Authors/Contributors: Institute for International Development (Australia) Dewey Number: 363.34809591

Level One 19 North Terrace

Hackney, South Australia 5069

Risk Reduction in NRM - Leake v

Table of Contents Page

List of Figures, Table & Abbreviations ix Acknowledgements xi What this Book is About 1 Chapter 1 - Key Concepts 7 Disaster Risk Reduction 7 Risk 10 Fast and Slow Onset Disasters 11 Resilience 12 Systems Thinking 13 Self-organising Systems 18 A System for Disaster Risk Reduction 21 Evaluation of Natural Disasters 22 Chapter 2 –Components of Disasters and NRM 27 Economic Analysis – Five Forms of Capital 27 The Significance of Context 31 Ecosystems Functional Analysis 35 A Note on Statistics 39 Chapter 3 – Humans as a Force of Nature 41 The Anthropocene 41 Landscape-scale Impacts 44 Chapter 4 –Myanmar and Tropical Cyclone Nargis 48 Overview of the Cyclone 50 The Country of Myanmar 53 Economy and Political Developments 55

Risk Reduction in NRM - Leake vi

Chapter 5 - Response to the Cyclone – Setting 58 The Setting of TC Nargis 58 The Environment 59 Administrative Arrangements 65 Access and Communication 67 Population 74 Chapter 6 - Response to the cyclone – Shelter 79 Residential 79 Public Buildings 82 Commercial Structures 85 Chapter 7 - Response to the cyclone – Sustenance 80 Food Security 89 Food Production 90 Other Essential Goods 101 Water Supply and Sewerage 102 Power Supply 106 Chapter 8 - Response to the cyclone – Security 107 Emergency Management 107 Emergency Responders 110 Structural Defences 111 Warning Systems 112 Health Services 113 Public Health Management 114 Chapter 9 - Response to the cyclone – Society 117 Language, Ethnicity and Religion 118 Vulnerable Groups 119 Community Support and Welfare 122 Legal Issues 123 Education 126

Risk Reduction in NRM - Leake vii

Vocational Skills and Resources 127 Religious Institutions 128 NGOs and Self-Help Groups 129 Non-Agricultural Economy 130 Commerce 132 Chapter 10 - National, Local & International Responses 135 National Response 135 Community Response 138 International Support 139 Monitoring, Evaluation, Reporting and Management 143 Periodic Review Series 145 Social Impact Monitoring Series 146 Sampling Methods 146 Social Impact Monitoring Surveys 148 Data Collection 149 Coordination and Logistics 149 Funding and Disbursements 152 Governance and Accountability 153 Chapter 11 - Achievements of Tripartite Group 158 National Reconstruction Plan 159 Housing Sector 159 Health Sector 159 Education Sector 161 Access to Safe Drinking Water 161 Electricity and Communications Sectors 162 Agricultural Sector 162 The Fishing Sector 163 Salt Industry 163 Trade and Commerce 164 Subsistence Agriculture and Livestock Breeding 164 Preparedness for Future Natural Disasters 165 Rehabilitation of Forests and Forestry Resources 166

Risk Reduction in NRM - Leake viii

Planning and Implementation of the National Plan 167 Internationally Supported Components of PONREP 168 Productive Lives 169 Healthy Lives 178 Protected Lives 182 Vulnerable Groups 183 Disaster Risk Management 186 Environmental Management 187 Chapter 12 – What Worked, What Did Not – Why 189 Physical Capital 190 Financial Capital 190 Natural Capital 191 Human Capital 191 Social Capital 191 Some Lessons 194 Learning from the Lessons 196 Applying the Lessons Nationwide 203 Chapter 13 –A Risk-based Approach to NRM 209 Disasters in Context 209 Slowing the Slow Background Disaster 214 Spotting the Warning Signals 216 Bibliography for General Background Reading 225 Endnotes and References 227

Risk Reduction in NRM - Leake ix

List of Figures

1.1: Bifurcation and transition to chaos 1.2: Schematic ‘self-organising system’ 1.3: Framework for disaster risk reduction 2.1: The hazard-exposure-vulnerability relationship 2.2: The pulse cycle in ecosystem functional analysis 4.1: Path of Cyclone Nargis 4.2: Affected townships and population 4.3: Human Development Index for Myanmar 5.1: Land use in Delta 5.2: PONPREPP plans for restoration of mangrove forests 5.3: Road and waterway network in the TC Nargis impact area 6.1: PONREPP plans for restoration of good shelter 7.1: PONREPP plans for recovery of fishing fleet 10.1: Sample villages’ variation across reports 10.2: Methodological shortcomings in sampling 10.3: Coordination mechanism for the Tripartite Core Group 10.4: Funding mechanism and coordination 13.1: A system for adaptive management List of Tables 10.1: Expenditure against that planned in PONREPP 11.1: Expenditure on health against estimates in PONREPP 11.2: Expenditure by Sector against estimates in PONREPP 11.3: Expenditure on DRM and environmental protection

Risk Reduction in NRM - Leake x

Abbreviations AHTF ASEAN Humanitarian Task Force for the

Victims of Tropical Cyclone Nargis ALARP ‘as low as reasonably practicable’ ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations DaLA Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology DRR Disaster Risk Reduction HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus IASC Inter-Agency Standing Committee IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and

Red Crescent INGO International Non-Government Organization DMH Department for Meteorology and Hydrology DSW Department of Social Welfare MIMU Myanmar Information Management Unit MOH Ministry of Health NDPCC Natural Disaster Preparedness Central

Committee NGO Non-Governmental Organization OCHA Office of Coordination of Humanitarian

Affairs PONJA Post-Nargis Joint Assessment PONREPP Post-Nargis Recovery and Preparedness Plan RCC Recovery Coordination Centre PDC Peace and Development Committees RH Risk Hazard TAG Technical Advisory Group TC Tropical Cyclone TCC Township Coordination Committee TCG Tripartite Core Group UN United Nations VPDC Village Peace and Development Council VTA Village Tract Assessment WASH Water, Sanitation and Hygiene

Risk Reduction in NRM - Leake xi

Acknowledgments

I am indebted to Ken Granger for

influencing my thinking of how to link

mainstream disaster risk science to the

particular area of natural resource

management and for his disaster risk

science input to the evaluation of the Nargis

cyclone, and to Tim Kirby for financial

analysis of information from various sources

in the recovery period following Cyclone

Nargis. Also, I would like to thank Lindsay

Falvey and Trevor Gibson for assistance in

the flow of logic and words that make up this

book.

John Leake

25 December 2012

Risk Reduction in NRM - Leake xii

Risk Reduction in NRM - Leake 1

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14

they exist far from equilibrium and are only held in place against the natural tendency to

disorder if they remain open to flows of energy, matter, and information from their

environment.56

The following diagram, Figure 1.2, is a simplified concept of a self-organising system.

The circle is the boundary of the system and the two arrows illustrate the requirement that

they must be open at both ends to permit a flow of information (about the system) and

resources to power the system.

F igure 1.2 Schematic 'self-organising system' (after Capra 1997)57

As all systems are ipso facto dynamic, cessation of the movement of either information or

resources leads to failure of the system; failure

.58

Conversely the resilience of a system is dependent on this open flow of necessary

information and resources against the natural tendency towards disorder.59

-organise if it is open

to information and includes a throughput of both information and resources.60 Useful

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20

With large disaster response evaluations it is common to also undertake peer review or

The Cosgrove summary evaluation of the 2004 Tsunami referred to above is one such

example, the investigations upon which this thesis is based is another. It is also common

to undertake comparative evaluations of different case studies; the World Bank

Independent Evaluation Group (EIG) has a methodology they refer -

,69 but which also follows the OECD guidelines in

general terms.

to development planning in

response to the finding referred to in the introduction that preparedness is cheaper that the

response. The World Bank Sponsored GFDRR discussed above is to a significant extent a

response to this. The EU Directorate-General for Humanitarian Aid (ECHO) recently

contracted a study to this end and produced similar conclusions that DRM should be

mainstreamed into development planning.70

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51

F igure 5.2 Derived from PONREPP, to show proportionality, columns left to right are

Pre Nargis, as of Nov 2008, expected June 2009, expected December 2009, and expected

December 2011163

Local community- or village-owned forest plantations were also to be developed under a

five-year plan of PONREPP covering 12,000 ha in Ayeyarwady and 360 ha in Yangon

Division. Trees to serve as windbreaks were to be planted alongside the river banks to a

width of up to 200 m, for a distance of 1,304 km, covering a total area of 3,360 ha. This

task was to be undertaken by a mass participation movement to be organized by the

Forestry Department in cooperation with the local authorities under a five-year plan in

seven Townships of Ayeyarwady Division. A further 184 km of river bank was to be

planted in Yangon Division.

Community awareness and training in forestry management and environmental practices

were to be planned to support the increased protection of forested areas. PONREPP did

not identify what was be used to substitute for the basic fuel and construction materials

the forests provided.

hec

tare

s

PO NR EPP plan for restoration of mangrove forests


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81

F igure 7.1 Plans for restoration of good shelter, columns to show proportionality left to

right: Pre Nargis, after Nargis, as of Nov 2008, expected June 2009, expected Dec 2009,

expected Dec.193

3. O ther Essential Goods

Before T C Nargis: The supply of clothing, medicines and other personal items was

generally via small and very small traders who obtained stocks from main towns and

Yangon.

Immediately after T C Nargis: Many families in the most-affected areas lost all of their

belongings, and any money they kept in the house. This loss of savings had a

proportionally bigger impact on the prospects for the personal recovery of the elderly,

notably where they became separated from traditional support structures, such as family.

Most small traders lost their stock on hand and savings that would otherwise have been

available for restocking. Some 20,000 small traders were affected; insurance systems did

not exist.

Restoration since T C Nargis: Some 70,000 personal hygiene kits and 1.5 million soaps

were distributed to 40,000 households. Assistance provided by citizens from elsewhere in

No

. of

bo

ats

PO NR EPP plans for recovery of inland fishing fleet


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124

programs. For instance, the following Table 10.1 shows PONREPP estimated a recovery

housing), but actual expenditure tracked by the Recovery Coordination Centre (RCC)

only reports $177.7 million to June 2010.

Table 10.1 contains estimates of planned expenditure for PONREPP programs against

actual expenditure based on the Aid Tracking tables provided by the RCC. Variances are

significant (> ten percent) across all program categories and the overall estimate of

funding received is 27.3 percent of planned funds, two years into the three-year plan. The

lowest variance was in WASH (which received much more than planned) and Recovery

Coordination, and the highest in Environment, Education, Shelter and Vulnerable

Groups. Significantly, programs with a key long-term resilience focus were under funded

Environment and Education, with environment receiving no funding at all.

Table 10.1 Actual tracked expenditure in $US against that planned in PONREPP.248 Program 2009 2010 2011

Planned Actual Variance % Planned Actual Variance % Planned

Livelihood 87.1 41.8 -45.3 -52 26.0 19.8 -6.1 -24 26.0

Shelter 70.6 21.8 -48.8 -69 51.5 5.0 -46.5 -90 51.5

Education and Training 19.0 7.4 -11.6 -61 69.0 3.0 -66.0 -96 69.0

Health 21.2 8.8 -12.4 -58 16.3 3.8 -12.5 -77 16.3

Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 17.8 32.3 14.5 82 16.1 12.0 -4.1 -26 16.1

Disaster Risk Management 16.5 10.2 -6.3 -38 7.8 0.0 -7.8 -100 7.8

Environment 0.9 0.0 -0.9 -100 0.6 0.0 -0.6 -100 0.6

Protection & Vulnerable Groups 9.2 3.6 -5.6 -60 7.0 0.3 -6.6 -95 7.0

Recovery Coordination 5.0 6.8 1.8 36 2.5 1.0 -1.5 -59 2.5

Rounded Totals 247 133 -115 -46 197 45 -152 -77 197

The PONREPP Prioritised Action Plan October 2009249 is a subset of the PONREPP

designed as a way to focus the reduced funds available on the important activities

considered achievable within two years; it does not change the requirement for recovery

over the remainder of the PONREPP period to 2011 and so has not been separately

analysed.


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Annual replanning

Data collection and storage

GIS

Analysis of data changes presentation, specialis

Data changes

Monitoring & Evaluation meetings (by stakeholder reps)

Indicator changes

Resolve ‘concerns, claims and bring issues’ about systems changes

Improved understanding of ecosystem change

Ecosystem condition reports

M&E meeting (minutes)

Questions and indicator data to be collected

Ecosystem boundary

Evidence reports

Key


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Bibliography for General Background Reading >$.*,/!F&')*0$%.!MLL`6!fS/1,(b/++5($:,(U:,0*.#'(U%'G&*$+6!O(2&*,(-!<)(/$+.!*3!J)&$,)$'6!q#22;Ebb1119:$.*,//&')*0$%.9*%4b)*,2$,2b0&$19;(4$9(';^?rX`n9!!@('2$%:%**86!A<!D``Q6!\/0,1$(/1([#&$:_(D:,(U/0*12(K2,(/I([1C*&/10,1$#'(fG$*0*+06!e$,45&,9!>*5-/&,46!g@!D`TX6!D:,([./1/0*.+(/I($:,(U/0*12(]G#.,+:*G([#&$:H(R1([1C*&/10,1$#'(k%#'*$3(*1(#(L&/6*12([./1/036!f*#,!Z*;8&,'!a,&0$%'&2.!e%$''!>(-2&+*%$9!W&;*--(6!W!D`TM6!D:,([./1/0*.(X*+$/&3(/I(h/&')(N/G%'#$*/16!e$,45&,9!W*-$6!e!MLLL6!e$%'9!W*++9!W%(+$%6!]!D``N6!U:#/+(#1)(f&),&4(D:,(U/0G',P(f&),&(/I(b*C*12(D:*12+6!=&-$.VhWZ9!W%&)#2*,6!F!D```6!R"#$!%&'8!2%&(,4-$S6!&,!f!?,4-$2*,!B$/C6!"#$%&#'()*+#+$,&(0#1#2,0,1$6!"5/*%!P*'$6!c*,/*,9!F(226!A!D`XX6!Re*0$%2.!&,!?,/&(!(,/!?,/&(,!J2(2$'E!<,!a;/(2$S6!]OWF!\))('&*,(-!e(;$%!,*9!K_6!"#$!]**/!e*-&).!?,'2&252$!aJ<9!F5;*,26!<!MLLL6!R]**/6!=(2$%!(,/!J$)5%&2.E!=#(2!(%$!2#$!W*,,$)2&*,'^S6!;%*)$$/&,4'!*3!]**/6!=(2$%!(,/!=(%!J$)5%&2.!&,!(!=*%-/!*3!W*,3-&)26!W%(13*%/!]5,/b<W?<P!e(%-&(+$,2!Z*5'$!W(,:$%%(9!@--&'6!J6!g(,*1'8&6!e!o!=#$-(,6!P!MLLK6!"#$*/1#'(*1T%*&3(/1(-%+:I*&,(0*$*2#$*/1(#1)(0#1#2,0,1$6!W*++*,1$(-2#!*3!<5'2%(-&(6!W(,:$%%(9(@,/$%':$$6!c<!MLLD6!R<!O$1!a,/$%'2(,/&,4!*3!2#$!A%*5,/1(2$%!P$'*5%)$'!*3!2#$!A%$(2!<%2$'&(,!>('&,S6!<"J@!\))('&*,(-!e(;$%!,*9!M9!](-0$.6!fc!D``T6!`//)([1C*&/10,1$(#1)([)%.#$*/14(K2&*.%'$%&#'([)%.#$*/1(*1("#$%&#'(V,+/%&.,(\#1#2,0,1$6!"#$!W%(13*%/!]5,/!3*%!?,2$%,(2&*,(-!<4%&)5-25%(-!P$'$(%)#!(,/!2#$!?,'2&252$!3*%!?,2$%,(2&*,(-!F$0$-*;+$,2!c&+&2$/6!</$-(&/$9!]&2[;(2%&)86!@O!MLLL6!h#$,&(#1)($:,(K%+$&#'*#1([./1/03(KD][(]30G/+*%06!O*0$+:$%!MLLL!<-:%$)#2!H!W!J2$1(%/'#&;!*3!*5%!=(2$%!3*%!P$';*,'&:-$!A%*12#6!<"J@!J.+;*'&5+9!A%(,4$%6!g!D```6!RF$0$-*;&,4!(,!5,/$%'2(,/&,4!*3!5%:(,!4$*#([(%/'S6!K%+$&#'*#1(l/%&1#'(/I([0,&2,1.3(\#1#2,0,1$6!0*-9DN6!,*9K9!A%(,4$%6!g!MLLQ6!]#I,5(+%+$#*1#-',(#1)(+,.%&,(./00%1*$*,+4(#(2,/2&#G:,&O+(G,&+G,.$*C,6!A$*4%(;#&)!H*,*4%(;#6!P*.(-!A$*4%(;#&)(-!J*)&$2.!*3!p5$$,'-(,/6!>%&':(,$9!A%(,4$%6!g6!f*,$'6!"6!c$&:(6!H!o!J)*226!A6!D```6!U/00%1*$3(&*+Q(*1(U#*&1+4(#(0%'$*J:#S#&)(&*+Q(#++,++0,1$6!<5'2%(-&(,!A$*-*4&)(-!J5%0$.!\%4(,&'(2&*,6!W(,:$%%(9(ZP!=(--&,43*%/!c2/6!,/6!]/%&.,(-//Q(I/&(+%+$#*1#-',(I'//)(0*$*2#$*/1(+$&#$,2*,+6!ZP!=(--&,43*%/!c2/!3*%!2#$!ag!F$;(%2+$,2!3*%!?,2$%,(2&*,(-!F$0$-*;+$,29!


?JFP6!MLLME!b*C*12(6*$:(&*+Q4(#(2'/-#'(&,C*,6(/I()*+#+$,&(&,)%.$*/1(#.$*C*$*,+6!a,&2$/!O(2&*,'!?,2$%,(2&*,(-!J2%(2$4.!3*%!F&'('2$%!P$/5)2&*,6!A$,$0(9!c(-!D``D!&,!>$,,$#6!A6!H*%4(,6!=>!o!a&22*!f!B$/'C!D``Q6!Y*#-*'*$3(+/%$:(/I($:,(]#:#&#H(]%+$#*1*12($:,(I%$%&,4(,./1/0*.5(+/.*#'5(#1)(,1C*&/10,1$#'(.:#12,(*1(+%-J

]#:#&#1(KI&*.#6!a,&2$/!O(2&*,'!a,&0$%'&2.!e%$''9!!c(')*6!PF!$2!(-6!K1#'3+*+(/I(b,#Q#2,(*1(U#&-/1(],T%,+$&#$*/1(N&/Z,.$+(*1(`/&,+$&34(K(U#+,(]$%)3(/I($:,(gGG,&(\#2#$(h#$,&+:,)5(N:*'*GG*1,+5!@,0&%*,+$,2(-!]*%$'2%.!e%*4%(+6!a,&0$%'&2.!*3!2#$!e#&-&;;&,$'9!c$()#6!A!&,!>$,,$#6!A6!H*%4(,6!=>!o!a&22*!f!B$/'C!D``Q6!Y*#-*'*$3(+/%$:(/I($:,(]#:#&#H(]%+$#*1*12($:,(I%$%&,4(,./1/0*.5(+/.*#'5(#1)(,1C*&/10,1$#'(.:#12,(*1(+%-J

]#:#&#1(KI&*.#6!a,&2$/!O(2&*,'!a,&0$%'&2.!e%$''9!c$(8$6!f!@6!J(-2!*3!2#$!@(%2#E!J(-2V=(2$%!(,/!2#$!c&+&2'!*3!A%*12#6!!MLLD!</$-(&/$!]$'2&0(-!*3!?/$('6!q#22;Ebb1119&&/9*%4b5;-*(/'bTbMbLbTbTMLTLMKb'(-2s*3s2#$s$(%2#s:.sY*#,s$9s-$(8$9;/3n9!c*0$-*)86!f!D`_`6!L#*#(#(",6(b//Q(#$(b*I,(/1([#&$:6!\G3*%/9!e$()*)86!f!MLLL6!RJ5'2(&,(:-$!<5'2%(-&(^S6!<5'2%(-&(,!<)(/$+.!*3!J)&$,)$!"$)#,*-*4.!(,/!@,4&,$$%&,4!B<"J@C!J.+;*'&5+9!c$(8$6!f@!o!]-(,,$%.6!"!MLL_9!!V,:#-*'*$#$*/1(/I(D&/G*.#'(#1)(]%-$&/G*.#'(V,2*/1+(#+(#(\,#1+(/I(a*/J(+,T%,+$&#$*/1(/I(U#&-/1!B5,;5:-&'#$/C9!J$)8-$%6!F!D```6!V,C*+*$*12($:,(Rh\R(N#&#)*20_(R1.&,#+*12($:,(,II*.*,1.3(#1)(G&/)%.$*C*$3(/I(6#$,&(%+,6!?,2$%,(2&*,(-!=(2$%!H(,(4$+$,2!?,'2&252$6!J%&!c(,8(9!J$)8-$%6!F6!H*-/$,6!F!o!>(%8$%6!P!D```6!h#$,&(].#&.*$3(*1($:,(?7+$(U,1$%&36!?=H?9!J&,4#6!\e!MLLD6RZ('!2#$!3%$75$,).!*3!&,2$,'$!2%*;&)(-!).)-*,$'!&,)%$('$/!&,!2#$!,*%2#$%,!?,/&(,!\)$(,^S!U%&&,1$(].*,1.,5(0*-9!XL6!,*9!K6!;9!Q_Q9!aOFe!MLLKE!V,)%.*12()*+#+$,&(&*+Q4(#(.:#'',12,(I/&(),C,'/G0,1$6!a,&2$/!O(2&*,'!F$0$-*;+$,2!e%*4%(++$6!O$1!d*%89!h*,!>$%2(-(33.6!c!D`QL6!K1(f%$'*1,(/I(L,1,&#'(]3+$,0+(D:,/&36!e$,45&,9!d$,'$,6!Oe!D`XQ6!RJ(-&,$!<4%&)5-25%$!(,/!O$1!Z(-*;#.2$!W%*;'S6!K0,&*.#1(K++/.*#$*/1(I/&($:,(K)C#1.,0,1$(/I(].*,1.,6!0*-9!M_6!;;9!D`VMN9!d$,'$,6!Oe!MLLD6!e$%'9!W*++9!


Endnotes and References 1 World Bank, Independent Evaluation Group 2006, Hazards of Nature, Risks

to Development. An IEG Evaluation of World Bank Assistance for Natural Disasters World Bank Executive Summary, Washington DC, p. xix.

2 Thompson, WR 2004, ‘Complexity, Diminishing Marginal Returns and Serial Mesopotamian Fragmentation’, .Journal of World-Systems Research, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 613-652.

3 Thirgood, JV 1981, Man and the Mediterranean forest: a history of resource depletion, Academic Press, New York.

4 Prof Barry Brook among others has suggested we as a species are committing ‘carbocide’ by failing to address human induced climate change. See, Brooks, B 2008, Carbon Targets I – Fermi Paradox Solved?, Brave New Climate, viewed 2 December 2011, <http://bravenewclimate.com/2008/08/28/carbon-targets-i-fermi-paradox-solved/>.

6 This refers to different reaction of an anecdotal frog to boiling water

depending on the speed to which it is exposed to the boiling water; throwing a frog into hot water is supposed to induce immediate evasive action - the frog will jump out, but a frog is supposed to be able to be boiled to death if the water it is in is slowly heated.

7 ‘disaster’ 1968, Webster Universal, unabridged international edition, Elsevier.

8 United Nations 2004, Living with risk: A global review of disaster reduction initiatives, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 16.

9 The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery 2012, About GFDRR, <http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/about_gfdrr>.

10 Australia, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Columbia, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Haiti, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Malawi, Malaysia, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United kingdom, United States, Vietnam, Yemen.


11 Arab Academy of Science, European Commission, International

Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Islamic Development Bank, The International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (ISDR), UNDP, World Bank.

12World Bank n.d, Disaster Risk Management, <http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTURBANDEVELOPMENT/EXTDISMGMT/0,,menuPK:341021~pagePK:149018~piPK:149093~theSitePK:341015,00.html>.

13 United Nations, ‘Living with risk’, op cit., pp. 17. 14 United Nations 1994, ‘Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safer

World; Guidelines for Natural Disaster Prevention, Preparedness and Mitigation’, World Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction 1994, Yokohama, Japan, pp. 23-27.

15 United Nations 2006, Johannesburg Summit 2002, <http://www.un.org/jsummit/html/basic_info/basicinfo.html>.

16United Nations n.d, World Conference on Disaster Reduction, Kobe- Hyogo 2005, <http://www.unisdr.org/2005/wcdr/wcdr-index.htm>.

17 United Nations 2005, ‘Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: ISDR International Strategy for Disaster Reduction International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters’, World Conference on Disaster Reduction, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan, p. 21.

18 United Nations, ‘Living with risk’, op cit., pp. 17. 19 United Nations, ‘Yokohama Strategy’, op cit. 20 United Nations, ‘Living with risk’, op cit., pp. 16. 21 It is claimed that even in the case of Vesuvius, warning signs of eruption

were unheeded and so preparedness was low. It remains one of the most densely populated active volcanic regions of the world today. Sigurdsson, H, Cashdollar, S & Sparks, S 1982, ‘The Eruption of Vesuvius in A. D. 79: Reconstruction from Historical and Volcanological Evidence’, American Journal of Archaeology, vol. 86, no. 1, pp. 39–51.

22 Wisner, B, Blaikie, PT & Cannon DI 2004, At Risk: Natural hazards, people's vulnerability and disasters, 2nd edition, Routledge, London.

23 Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters 2009, World Health Organization, <www.cred.be>.


24 World Bank, ‘Hazards of Nature’, op cit. 25 Ramsar 2011, Wetland ecosystem services Factsheet 3: Shoreline

stabilization & storm protection, <http://www.ramsar.org/pdf/info/services_03_e.pdf>.

26 United Nations, ‘Living with risk’, op cit., pp. xi- xiii. 27 Avallone, EA, Baumeister, T & Sadegh, A 2007, Marks’ Standard

Handbook for Mechanical Engineers, 11th edition, McGraw-Hill, Sydney. 28 Rutter, M 2008, ‘Developing concepts in developmental psychopathology’,

in JJ Hudziak (ed), Developmental psychopathology and wellness: Genetic and environmental influences, American Psychiatric Publishing ,Washington, DC, pp. 3-22.

29 Holling, CS 1973, ‘Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems’, Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, vol. 4, p. 14.

30 Brand, FS & Jax, K 2007, ‘Focusing the meaning(s) of resilience: resilience as a descriptive concept and a boundary object’, Ecology and Society, vol. 12, no. 1, p. 23.

31 A good discussion on social ecological systems mentioning the idea of ‘social reserves’ appears in Berkes, F, Colding, J & Folke C (eds) 2003, Introduction to Navigating Social Ecological Systems: Building Resilience for Complexity and Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

32 Falvey, L 2003, Sustainability: Elusive or Illusion - Wise Environmental Intervention, Institute for International Development, Adelaide.

33 Strogatz, S 2006, ‘The End of Insight’, in J Brockman, What is your dangerous idea?, Harper Perennial, New York, pp. 130-131.

34 Evans, MR 2012, ‘Modeling ecological systems in a changing world’, Philosophical Transactions of Biological Sciences, vol. 367, pp. 181-190.

35 Simonovic, SP 2011, Systems Approach to Management of Disasters: Methods and Applications, Wiley, Ch. 3.

36 Von Bertalaffy, L 1950, ‘An outline of General systems theory’, British Journal of the Philosophy of Science, vol. 1, no. 2, p. 134.

37 Haines, SG 1998, The Manager's Pocket Guide to Systems Thinking & Learning, HRD Press, Amherst, p. 5.

38 Rountree, JH 1977, ‘Systems thinking – some fundamental aspects’, Agricultural systems, vol. 2, no. 4, p. 247.


39 Simonovic, op cit. 40 Simonovic, op cit., [3.1.2]. 41 Haines, SG 2000, The Complete Guide to Systems Thinking and Learning,

HRD Press, Amherst, p. i. 42 BF Verhulst derived a growth law for these in 1845, see Cramer, F 1993,

Chaos and Order: The Complex Structure of Living Things, translated by DL Loewus, VCH, New York.

43 For a good general discussion of the evolution of Chaos thinking see Gleick, J 2011, Chaos: Making a new science, Penguin Books, New York.

44 Ibid. 45 Ruelle, D. (1991). Chance and chaos. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University

Press. 46 Accessible at <http://images.suite101.com/342690_com_bifurcat.png>. 47 Gladwell, M 2000, The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big

Difference, Little, Brown and Company, New York. 48 For example see, Thompson JMT & Sieber, J 2004, Predicting Climate

Tipping Points, <http://brain.cc.kogakuin.ac.jp/~kanamaru/Chaos/e/Thompson/>.

49 For a discussion on strange attractors see, Gershenson, C n.d, Introduction to Chaos in Deterministic Systems, University of Sussex, <http://turing.iimas.unam.mx/~cgg/cogs/doc/FCS-chaos-tutorial.htm>, no. 2.

50 Davies, J & Wallace, B 2004, Safety management: a qualitative systems approach, CRC Press, p. 32.

51 Ludwig, J, Tongway, D, Freudenberger, D, Nobel, J & Hodgkinson, K (eds) 1997, Land scape Ecology; Function and Management, CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne.

52 Cramer, opcit., pp. 142. 53 After the US mathematician who characterized and detailed the German

discoverer S Grossman’s work with Verhulst’s law, ibid. 54 For a more detailed discussion of this number see, Gershenson, op cit, no.

5. 55 Prigogine, I & Stengers, I 1984, Order out of chaos: Man's new dialogue

with nature, Bantam, Toronto.


56 Ibid. 57 Lovelock spends a chapter ‘Cybernetics’ discussing this concept. See

Lovelock, J 1979, Gaia; A new look at life, Oxford University Press, Melbourne, 1995 edition, pp. 45-58.

58 Paul Davies discusses the importance of emergent properties in the evolution of self-organising systems in several of his books, See Davies, P 1998, The Fifth Miracle, Penguin Press, New York, pp. 214-215, and Davies, P 1989, The Cosmic Blueprint, Simon & Schuster, New York.

59 Capra, F 1996, The Web of Life, Harper Collins. 60 Another discussion of self organising systems that emphasises the

importance of openness even in computational systems used in industrial controls can be found at: Jamarani, SMH & Golpayegani, MRH 2005, ‘Design of Self Organizing System Controller for Industrial Application’, World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, vol. 12, p. 15.

61 Simonovic, op cit. 62 United Nations 2011, International Day for Disaster Reduction,

<http://www.un.org/en/events/disasterreductionday/ >. 63 United Nations 2002, The International Strategy for Disaster Reduction,

<http://www.unisdr.org/2002/campaign/pa-camp02-kit-eng.htm#n1>, ch. 2.

64 Cosgrave, J 2007, Synthesis Report: Expanded Summary. Joint evaluation of the international response to the Indian Ocean tsunami, Tsunami Evaluation Coalition, <http://www.alnap.org/pool/files/Syn_Report_Sum.pdf>.

65 Leake, JE, Granger, K & Kirby, T 2010, An independent review of the recovery from the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Nargis with guidelines for the future, unpublished, prepared for the UNDP Delta Core Group.

66 OECD 2010, DAC Evaluation Resource Centre, <http://www.oecd.org/document/11/0,3746,en_35038640_35039563_35126667_1_1_1_1,00.html>.

67 OECD, Development Assistance Committee 2010, Evaluating Development Cooperation – Summary of Key Norms and Standards, 2nd edition, <http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/12/56/41612905.pdf >, p. 4.

68 Ibid, pp. 13-15.


69 World Bank, ‘Hazards of Nature, Risks to Development’, op cit., pp. 83-

87. 70 Wilderspin, I, Barham, J, Gill, G, Ahmed, I & Lockwood, H 2008,

Evaluation of Disaster Risk Reduction Mainstreaming in DG ECHO’s Humanitarian Actions, European Commission Humanitarian Aid, available at <http://ec.europa.eu/echo/files/evaluation/2008/DRRMainstreaming.pdf>.

71 Leake, Granger & Kirby, op cit. 72 World Bank 2011, Disaster Risk Management – Damage and Loss

Assessments, <http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTURBANDEVELOPMENT/EXTDISMGMT/0,,contentMDK:20196047~menuPK:1415429~pagePK:210058~piPK:210062~theSitePK:341015,00.html>.

73

74 Lindsay, F 2010, Small Farmers Secure Food: Survival Food Security, the World’s Kitchen and the Critical Role of Small Farmers, Thaksin University Press in association with the Institute for International Development, pp. 13-16.

75 Text of speech on ‘Salt of the Earth: Salt-Water and the Limits of Growth’ given at the Adelaide Festival of Ideas, by JE Leake, 2001, <http://www.iid.org/uploads/6/2/0/6/6206024/salt_of_the_earth_by_john_e._leake.pdf>.

76 Schumacher, EF 1973, Small is Beautiful: A Study of Economics As If People Mattered, Blond and Briggs, London.

77 WCED 1987, Our Common Future - World Commission on the Environment and Development, Oxford University Press, New York.

78 Costanza, R, d’Arge, R, de Groot, R, Farberk, S, Grasso, M, Hannon, B, Limburg, K, Naeem, S, O’Neill, RV, Paruelo, J, Raskin, RG, Sutton, P & van den Belt, M 1997, ‘The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital’, Nature, vol. 387, pp. 253-260.

79 Global Reporting Initiative 2012, About GRI, <https://www.globalreporting.org/Pages/default.aspx>.

80 Goodwin, NR 2003, ‘Five Kinds of Capital: Useful Concepts for Sustainable Development’, Global Development and Environment Institute, working paper no. 03-07, Tufts University.


81 For example, LOAM Landscape Outcome Assessment Methodology, see

Aldrich, M & Sayer, J 2007, ‘In Practice – Landscape Outcomes Assessment Methodology’, WWF, <http://awsassets.panda.org/downloads/loaminpracticemay07.pdf>.

82 Tripartite Core Group 2008, Post Nargis Joint Assessment (PONJA), <http://www.mm.undp.org/UNDP_Publication_PDF/PONJA%20full_report.pdf>.

83 Leake, JE 2009, A Proposal to Develop a “Fresh Start” Plan for the Pa-O Self Administered Zone of Myanmar, Institute for International Development, Adelaide.

84 Turner, BL II, Kasperson, RE, Matson, PA, McCarthy, JJ, Corell, RW, Christensen, L, Eckley, N, Kasperson, JX, Luers, A, Martello, ML, Polsky, C, Pulsipher, A & Schiller, A 2003, ‘Science and Technology for Sustainable Development Special Feature: A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science’, PNAS: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 100, no. 14, p. 8074.

85 Ibid. 86 Blaikie, P, Cannon, T, Davis, I & Wisner, B 1994, At risk: natural hazards,

people's vulnerability, and disasters, ist ed, Routledge, London. 87 Granger, K 1999, ‘Developing an understanding of urban geo-hazards’,

Australian Journal of Emergency Management, vol. 13, no. 4. 88 Discussed in Leake, Granger & Kirby, op cit, from the technique

developed by Granger, ibid. 89 Adapted by Leake Granger & Kirby, op cit, from Granger, op cit. 90 Crichton, D 1999, ‘The risk triangle’, in J Ingleton (ed), Natural disaster

management, Tudor Rose, London. 91 Tongway, D in Ludwig, J, Tongway, D, Feudenberger, D, Noble, J &

Hodgkinson, K (eds) 1997, Land scape Ecology; Function and Management, CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne.

92 Ibid, pp. 10-12. 93 Ibid, fig 5.1, pp. 50-61. 94 Elaborated in, Tongway, D & Ludwig, J 2010, Restoring Disturbed

Landscapes - Putting Principles into Practice, Island Press, Washington, DC.


95 This may have been unconscious, as they termed the earlier diagrams

‘Frameworks’. 96 Bailey, RG 1996, ‘Multi-scale Ecosystem Analysis’, Environmental

monitoring and assessment, vol. 39 pp. 21-24. 97 Randall, J 2004, ‘Ecosystem Function Analysis — a tool for monitoring

mine-site rehabilitation success’, MESA Journal, vol. 35, pp. 24-27. 98 Berkes, Colding & Folke, op cit. 99 Ludwig et al, op cit., fig 1.1, pp. 3-9. 100 Falvey, L 2003, ‘Agri-History and Sustainable Agriculture: A

Consideration of Technology and Ancient Wisdom’, Asian Agri-History Journal, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 279-294.

101 Leake, ‘Salt of the Earth’, op cit. 102 Costanza et al, op cit. 103 World Bank, ‘Hazards of Nature, Risks to Development’, op cit., pp. 83-

87. 104 Ibid, p. 83. 105 Grimm, V & Ralisback, SF 2012,’ Pattern-oriented modelling: a ‘multi-

scope’ for predictive systems ecology’, Philosophical transactions of Biological Sciences, vol. 367, no. 1586, pp. 298-310.

106 Milner-Gulland, EJ 2012, ‘Interactions between human behavior and ecological systems’, Philosophical transactions of Biological Sciences, vol. 387, no. 1586, pp. 270-278.

107 Crutzen, PJ 2002, ‘Geology of mankind’, Nature, vol. 415, no. 23. 108 Falvey, ‘Small Farmers Secure Food’, op cit., pp.26-27. 109 Awe, J 2006, Maya Cities and Sacred Caves, Cu bola Books. 110 Waters, T 2007, The Persistence of Subsistence Agriculture, Lexington

Books, p. 3. 111 Thirgood, op cit., p. x. 112 Deacon, RT 1999, ‘Deforestation and ownership: evidence from historical

accounts and contemporary data’, Land economics, vol. 75, no. 3, pp. 341-359.

113 See for example Theophrastus who used the word Greek word oikeois from which the modern word ecology is thought to have been derived when writing on the belief that humans could change and thereby control


their environment, Williams, M 2006, Deforesting the Earth: From Pre-History to Global Crisis. An Abridgement, p. 63.

114 Falvey, F 2005, Religion and Agriculture: Sustainability in Christianity and Buddhism, Institute for International Development, Adelaide.

115 Leake, ‘Salt of the Earth’, op cit. 116 For example see, Smith, JM 1998, Evolutionary Genetics, 2nd edition,

Oxford University Press, Oxford. 117 Ibid, p. 10. 118 Moore, Thomas (2000) Placebos, Faith, and Morals: Or Why Religion.

Hoover Institution, Stanford University. 119 Levin, S 2010, ‘Crossing scales, crossing disciplines: collective motion

and collective action in the global commons’, Philosophical Transactions. Biological Sciences, vol. 365, no. 1537, pp. 13-18.

120 Wilson, DS 2012, ‘Culture for survival’, review of Wired for Culture by M Pagel, New Scientist, vol. 213, no. 2854, p. 50.

121 Hardin, G 1968, ‘The tragedy of the commons’, Science, vol. 162, pp. 1243-1248.

122 U.S Department of State n.d, Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapon Tests in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space and Under Water, Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, <http://www.state.gov/t/isn/4797.htm#>.

123 Beyond Discovery 2009, Ozone Loss, the Chemical Culprits, National Academy of Sciences, <http://www.beyonddiscovery.org/content/view.page.asp?I=89>.

124 Easterbrook, GA 1995, Moment on Earth; The Coming Age of Environmental Optimism, Penguin.

125 Meadows, D, Meadows, D, Randers, J & Behrens, W 1974, The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind, Universe Books, New York.

126 Gutman, G 1995, Speeches at a Workshop for 2020 Vision, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.

127 Datt, G 1998, ‘Poverty in India and Indian States: An Update’, FNCD Occasional Paper No. 47, International Food Policy Institute, <http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/pubs/divs/fcnd/dp/papers/dp47.pdf>.


128 CGIAR 1996, The Future Role of CGIAR in the Development of National

Agricultural Research Systems: A Strategic Study of Institutional Strengthening Research and Services, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, <http://library.cgiar.org/handle/10947/1532>.

129 Pennisi, E 2008, ‘The Blue Revolution, Drop by Drop, Gene by Gene’, Science, vol. 320, no. 5873, pp. 171 – 173.

130 Seckler, D 1999, Revisiting the IWMI Paradigm; Increasing the efficiency and productivity of water use, International Water Management Institute, Sri Lanka.

131 Lal 1991 in Benneh, G, Morgan, WB & Uitto J (eds) 1995, Viability south of the Sahara. Sustaining the future: economic, social, and environmental change in sub-Saharan Africa, United Nations University Press.

132 Her Majesty’s Treasury 2006, Stern Review on the economics of climate change, <http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm>.

133 Leach, G in Benneh, G, Morgan, WB & Uitto J (eds) 1995, Viability south of the Sahara. Sustaining the future: economic, social, and environmental change in sub-Saharan Africa, United Nations University Press.

134 Leake, JE 2008, ‘‘An editorial comment’, review of Potential to Bio-sequester Carbon in the Tropics as a Measure for Removing the Net Atmospheric Carbon Produced by the Industrial Revolution Climatic Change’, Springer Stanford University.

135 See Leake, Granger & Kirby, op cit. 136 The Myanmar Information Unit (MIMU) available at

<http://www.themimu.info/ >. 137 They can be accessed from the ‘Links’ page at

<http://www.themimu.info/>. 138 Leake, Granger & Kirby, op cit. 139 There are a variety of units used in the Nargis reports. While Imperial

units are common in some reports about Myanmar, the evaluation standardized on metric units for international comparative purposes.

140 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONJA’, op cit., p.1. 141 Myanmar Information Management Unit n.d, Myanmar Administrative

Structure,


<http://www.themimu.info/Pcodes/Myanmar%20Administrative%20Structure.pdf >.

142 Tripartite Core Group 2008, Post-Nargis Periodic Review I, <http://unic.un.org/imucms/userfiles/yangon/file/periodicreview-5of9.pdf >.

143 Tripartite Core Group 2010, Post-Nargis Periodic Review IV, <www.themimu.info/.../Post-Nargis%20Periodic%20Review%20IV%20Report. pdf>, p. 11.

144 Tripartite Core Group 2008, Post Nargis Recovery and Preparedness Report (PONREPP), <http://www.mm.undp.org/UNDP_Publication_PDF/PONREPP.pdf>, p. 4.

145 Singh, OP 2001,‘Has the frequency of intense tropical cyclones increased in the northern Indian Ocean?’ Current Science, vol. 80, no. 4, p. 575.

146 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change, WHO & UNEP, <http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-1-2.html>.

147 Watkins, T n.d., ‘Political and Economic History of Myanmar (Burma) Economics’, San José State University, <http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/burma.htm>.

148 Falvey, L 2000, Thai Agriculture: Golden Cradle of Millennia, Kasetsart University Press, Bangkok.

149 FAOSTAT 2010, Agricultural Production, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, <http://faostat.fao.org/site/339/default.aspx>.

150 Smith, M 2007, State of Strife: The Dynamics of Ethnic Conflict in Burma, ISEAS Publishing, Washington, DC.

151 U.S Department of Treasury 2012, Burma Sanctions, <http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/pages/burma.aspx>.

152 UNDP 2011, Human Development Report, <http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2011/ >.

153 UNDP 2011, Myanmar – Country Profile: Human Development Indicators, <http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/MMR.html>.


154 Central Intelligence Agency 2012, The World Factbook – Burma, U.S

Government, <https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bm.html>.

155 Leake, Granger & Kirby, op cit. 156 Irish, JL, Resio, DT & Ratcliff, JJ 2008, ‘The Influence of Storm Size on

Hurricane Surge’, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol. 38, no. 9, pp. 2003–2013.

157 UNEP 2009, Learning from Cyclone Nargis – A Case Study’, <www.themimu.info/docs/UNEP_Nargis_Case_Study_Jun_2009.pdf>, p. 7.

158 Ibid, p. 12. 159 Ibid. 160 Ibid, p. 15 161 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONJA’, op cit., p. 4. 162 Leake, Granger & Kirby, op cit. 163 Leake, Granger & Kirby, op cit. 164 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONREPP’, op cit., fig. A2. 165 The NARGIS reports included PONJA, PONREPP and the SIM and PR

series progress reports. 166 Leake, Granger & Kirby, op cit. 167 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONJA’, op cit., p. 44. 168 Ibid, p. 1. 169 Ibid, p. 2. 170 Ibid, appendix. 19. 171 Myanmar Information Management Unit 2008, ‘Summary of Preliminary

Assessments of Areas Affected by Cyclone Nargis’, submitted to MIMU between 3 and 30 May 2008.

Myanmar Information Management Unit (2008). One of the main challenges in assisting this population group following TC Nargis, has been that detailed information about the extent of the displacement, the location of the populations and disaggregated data providing information on gender, age, morbidity profile, ethnic composition and needs of persons displaced by the cyclone was not available.


172 UNDP 2007, Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey in

Myanmar, Poverty Profile, Ministry of National Planning and Economic Development, unpublished. These, and the other figures in this section refer to Ayeyarwady Division, and hence do not include those in the more urbanized Yangon Division.

173 Than, M 2001, ‘Changing Faces of the Ayeyarwady (Irrawaddy) Delta (1850-2000)’, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.

174 Leake, Granger & Kirby, op cit. 175 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONJA’, op cit., annex. 8. 176 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONREPP’, op cit. 177 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONJA’, op cit., annex. 7. 178 Leake, Granger & Kirby, op cit. 179 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONJA’, op cit., annex. 6. 180 Ibid. 181 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONREPP’, op cit., p. 72, annex. A1. 182 Ibid. 183 Ibid. 184 Ibid. 185 Ibid. 186 Ibid. 187 The Nargis reports sometimes value items in Kyat when the data come

from Official sources and sometimes in $US, particularly where these emanate from the DaLa assessment of damage undertake for potential donors in PONJA.

188 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONREPP’, op cit., p. 72, annex. A1. 189 Figures from the Monsoon 2009 Crop Assessment see, Tripartite Core

Group 2009, Delta Livelihoods Recovery Working Group Meeting 5 - Minutes of DLRWG Meeting held at Chatrium Hotel, viewed 12 February 2012, <http://www.themimu.info/docs/DLRWG_Meeting_Minutes_12_Nov_2009.pdf>.

190 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONREPP’, op cit., p. 72, annex. A1. 191 Ibid. 192 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONJA’, op cit., p. 89, annex. 6.


193 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONREPP’, op cit., p. 72, annex. A1. 194 Ibid. 195 Ibid, p. 69. 196 Ibid, p. 72, annex. A1. 197 Leake, Granger & Kirby, op cit. 198 ASEAN 2012, Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency

Response, viewed 12 February 2012, <http://www.aseanpostnargiskm.org/about/asean-agreement-on-disaster-management-n-emergency-response>.

199 UNEP, op cit. 200 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONJA’, op cit. 201 World Health Organization 2007, Country Health System Profile –

Myanmar, viewed 12 February 2012, <http://www.searo.who.int/en/section313/section1522_10917.htm>.

202 Leake, Granger & Kirby, op cit. 203 This figure of displaced persons varies throughout the reports, the precise

figure is not known and the period of displacement was relatively brief. 204 Tripartite Core Group 2008, Post Nargis Social Impact Monitoring (SIM

series), report.1, pp. 23-24. 205 The ‘hungry season’ refers to the annual period during the growing season

prior to harvest when food prices rise and landless labourers have most difficulty buying food.

206 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONREPP’, op cit., p. 34, annex. 5. 207 UNDP,‘Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey’, op cit. 208 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONJA’, op cit., p. 91, annex 7. 209 UNDP, ‘Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey’, op cit. 210 Ibid. 211 Ibid. 212 Leake, Granger & Kirby, op cit. 213 Myanmar Information Management Unit, ‘Summary of Preliminary

Assessments’, op cit. 214 For example see, ISDR n.d, Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction,

<http://www.irinnews.org/pdf/in-depth/DR/ISDR-Framework.pdf>.


215 Nargis reports, op cit. 216 ASEAN 2005, Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency

Response, Vientiane, <http://www.aseansec.org/17579.htm>.

217 The UN cluster themes include health, education, logistics, nutrition, shelter, early recovery, water and sanitation and hygiene, agriculture, emergency communications and protection.

218 ASEAN Secretariat 2008, ‘ASEAN forms Emergency Rapid Assessment Team for Myanmar’, <http://www.aseanpostnargiskm.org/events-and-news/press-statements-release/39-ahtf-press-release/153-media-release-asean-forms-emergency-rapid-assessment-team-for-myanmar >.

219 Tripartite Core Group 2008, Press release, 2 July 2008. 220 Agriculture, Early Recovery, Education, Shelter, Emergency Telecoms,

Food, Health, Nutrition, Protection of Women and Children, Water/Sanitation/Hygiene. A Logistics cluster was operational until August 2008.

221 Bogale, Labutta, Mawlamyinegyun, Pathein, Pyapon and Yangon. 222 Bogale, Labutta, Pyapon and Yangon. 223 For example the “IASC ‘Cluster’ approach evaluation, 2nd Phase country

study April 2010” Executive Summary conclusions and recommendations.

224 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONJA’, op cit. 225 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONREPP’, op cit. 226 Collectively referred to as the Nargis Reports (see Chapter 4). 227 Ibid. 228 Ibid. 229 Since this DaLA assessment is not relevant to this evaluation it is not

further discussed, the methods and objectives are detailed at, Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONJA’, op cit., p. 59, annex. 2.

230 Detailed at, Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONREPP’, op cit., tables 5.1-5.3. 231 Nargis reports, op cit. 232 Ibid. 233 Leake, Granger & Kirby, op cit., section. 3.


234 Plotted by Granger based on GIS information provided by MIMU, see

Leake, Granger & Kirby, op cit., figure. 6.1. 235 As analysed in Leake, Granger & Kirby, ibid. 236 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONREPP’, op cit., figure. B11. 237 Turner, R, Baker, J, Myo Oo, Z & Soe Aye, N 2008, Inter-Agency Real

Time Evaluation of the Response to Cyclone Nargis, United Nations, <http://www.unicef.org/evaluation/files/Turner_Myanmar_IA_RTE_Nargis_Response_Final_Report_17_Dec_08.pdf>.

238 Kauffman, D & Kruger, S 2010, ‘IASC Cluster Approach Evaluation, Second Phase Country Study’, Global Policy Institute.

239 Tripartite Core Group, ‘Post-Nargis Periodic Review IV’, op cit. 240 Ibid. 241 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONREPP’, op cit., figure. 6.2. 242 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONJA’, op cit., p. 27. 243 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONREPP’, op cit., figure. 6.2. 244 UNDP 2009, Annual Report, <http://www.undp.org.bz/wp-

content/uploads/2010/12/EN_FINAL.pdf>. 245 ASEAN 2008/2009, Annual Report,

<http://www.aseansec.org/publications/AR09.pdf>. 246 IFRC 2009, Annual report, <http://www.ifrc.org/en/publications-and-

reports/ifrc-annual-report>. 247 USAID 2012, Fact sheets, <http://www.usaid.gov/press/factsheets/>. 248 IASC 2010, Humanitarian evaluation,

<http://www.humanitarianinfo.org/iasc/pageloader.aspx?page=content-search-fastsearch&q>.

249 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONREPP’, op cit. 250 Analysed by Kirby in Leake, Granger and Kirby (op cit). Table B 1

Derived from the Aid Tracking data provided by the RCC. Note 1: this table does not include $50 million planned for cash grants for

fragilized housing (which then brings to totals to the $ 690 million total quoted in PONREPP plans).

Note 2: The table is a weak estimate as the figures reported in the Monthly Recovery Update for 2009 could not be reconciled to the Aid


Tracking spread sheet and the estimates for 2010 are calculated using figures from Aid Tracking spreadsheet, adjusted for variance in 2009.

251 Tsunami Evaluation Coalition 2007, Synthesis Report: Expanded Summary. Joint evaluation of the international response to the Indian Ocean tsunami, <http://www.alnap.org/pool/files/Syn_Report_Sum.pdf>.

252 The RCC have quantified achievements in monthly outcome reports that quantify inputs but these are not assessed herein as they are not very relevant to an assessment of future needs.

253 Leake, Granger & Kirby, op cit. 254 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONREPP’, op cit. 255Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONREPP’, op cit., section. 2.2. 256 Tripartite Core Group, ‘Post-Nargis Periodic Review IV’, op cit. 257 Tripartite Core Group 2010, Post Nargis Social Impact Monitoring (SIM

series), report.3. 258 Tripartite Core Group, ‘Post-Nargis Periodic Review IV’, op cit. 259 Tripartite Core Group, ‘SIM Series 3’, op cit. 260 UNEP, ‘Learning from Cyclone Nargis’, op cit. 261 Tripartite Core Group, ‘Post-Nargis Periodic Review IV’, op cit. 262 Tripartite Core Group, ‘SIM Series 3’, op cit. 263 Ibid. 264 UNEP, ‘Learning from Cyclone Nargis’, op cit. 265 Ibid. 266 Leake, Granger and Kirby (op cit). Table B3 derived by Kirby from the

aid tracking table provided by the RCC. 267 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONJA’, op cit. 268 Tripartite Core Group, ‘Post-Nargis Periodic Review IV’, op cit. 269 Ibid. 270 Tripartite Core Group, ‘SIM Series 3’, op cit. 271 Ibid. 272 Ibid. 273 Ibid. 274 Ibid.


275 One lakh equals 100,000. 276 Chan, SJ 2009, ‘Nobel Laureate’s Burma Visit: ‘Moment of Hope’?’,

Inter Press Service, 29 December, <http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=49769>.

277 Microfinance Industry Report 2010, published by ACTED and the Banking with the Poor Network in collaboration with the Foundation for Development Cooperation, Myanmar.

278 ‘Learning from Cyclone Nargis: Lessons for Environment, livelihoods’ and ‘The Policy Implications of Environment, livelihoods’, presented at DRR National Workshop, 18 October 2009, Yangon.

279 Leake, Granger and Kirby (op cit).Table B3 derived by Kirby from the aid tracking table provided by the RCC.

280 Tripartite Core Group, ‘Post-Nargis Periodic Review IV’, op cit. 281 Analysed by Kirby in Leake, Granger and Kirby (op cit). Table B6

derived from the aid tracking table provided by the RCC. 282 Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONREPP’, op cit., section. 5.2.2. 283 Tripartite Core Group, ‘SIM Series 3’, op cit. 284 Tripartite Core Group, ‘SIM Series 3’, op cit. 285 Nargis reports, op cit. 286Tripartite Core Group, ‘PONREPP’, op cit., section. 5.2.2. 287 Tripartite Core Group, ‘Post-Nargis Periodic Review IV’, op cit. 288 UNEP, ‘Learning from Cyclone Nargis’, op cit 289 Granger in Leake Granger and Kirby, op cit. 290 Ibid. 291 Ibid. 292 ‘Where there are threats of serious or irreversible environmental damage,

lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing measures to prevent environmental degradation.’ United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, Rio, 1992 (the ‘Rio Declaration’).

293 Developed by Granger in Leake Kirby and Granger (op cit) While each of the indicator measures used were significant in their own right as far as improving community resilience, a consolidated index of overall risk was produced to show where the areas in most need of further development


are needed. The index was constructed by standardising each of the 22 individual indicators and expressing the index as a percentage of the possible maximum index sum score.

294 Granger in Leake Granger and Kirby, op cit. 295 “Death rates from natural disasters are falling; and fears that they have

become more common are misplaced. But their economic cost is rising relentlessly”, from, ‘Natural disasters: Counting the cost of calamities’ 2012, The Economist, 14 January.

296 Tongway, D in Land scape Ecology; Function and Management, Ludwig J, Tongway, D Feudenberger, Noble J & Hodgkinson K (eds) 1997, CSIRO Publishing.

297 Developed by Granger in Leake, Kirby and Granger op cit. 298 Leake, developed in the course of unpublished consultancies,

2005,2006,2007. 299 Holling, op cit.

Documents

Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar - World Public Libraryuploads.worldlibrary.net/uploads/pdf/20150410081930leake_with_co… · 1.1: Bifurcation and transition to chaos 1.2: Schematic ‘self-organising