Daily Market Outlook 29 Aug 2016

1

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Janet’s hawkish speech

Expect the SET to trade lower today as the perceived chance of

a US rate hike increased even in September after a hawkish

speech from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen at Jackson

Hole and comments from other Fed officials, although Yellen did

not indicate when the Fed would act. Locally, Thailand’s exports

continued to contract in July reflecting lackluster global demand.

The bright spot remained public investment. The Suvarnabhumi

Airport expansion projects have moved forward as scheduled.

Pick of the day: GUNKUL (Bt5.45; BUY; AWS TP Bt6.41) Gunkul Engineering Plc is our pick of the day with its recent

update on new investment to further strengthen growth in the

long run, while the share price still offers an interesting

valuation. GUNKUL’s board of directors recently approved a

100%-stake investment in a 67-MW solar power project in

Japan under Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) offering a

Feed-in Tariff rate of ¥36.00 per unit for 20 years, which would

complete construction and be commercially operational in 2022.

This investment will help increase GUNKUL’s total power

generation capacity to a robust 500 MW, and steadily

generate net profit of around Bt250-300mn p.a. for

GUNKUL. The earnings outlook remains very bright, further

supported by new investment projects, with net profits

expected to continuously hit new highs and generate EPS

CAGR growth during 2016-18 of a robust 48%, driven

by successive commercial operation on developing core

projects (235 MW) on hand. With PEG of 0.8x, we still believe

the share is well undervalued. In addition, PE ratio of 38.7x this

year should be successively reduced to just 15.2x in 2018,

and there are several new growth opportunities in green energy

for GUNKUL to capture afterward. A buy signal has occurred in

its weekly and monthly price charts, suggesting a strong

uptrend for the share price and it would show a daily buy signal

when the share closes above Bt5.50. GUNKUL is likely to

move up to test a short-term target at Bt5.90. (Resistance:

5.50, 5.55, 5.60; Support: 5.40, 5.35, 5.30) Local issue July exports saw contraction. The Commerce Ministry

reported July exports contracted 4.4% YoY to US$17.4bn,

marking the fourth straight month of contraction, while

imports slipped 7.2% YoY to US$16.2bn, resulting in a

trade surplus of US$1.2bn in July. The decline of July

exports was led by exports of agricultural and agribusiness

products which shrank 18.6%. Exports of industrial

products fell 0.4% YoY, largely due to falling car and car

parts shipments. For the first seven months, export value

was US$122.6bn, declining 2.0% YoY, while imports fell

9.8% YoY to US$108.9bn. (Bangkok Post) (cont. on next

page)

Major Indices Close Chg %Chg

SET 1,549.41 +5.3 +0.3

SET50 987.29 +3.8 +0.4

SET P/E (x) 22.8

SET P/BV (x) 2.0

SET Div. Yield (%) 3.1

Dow Jones 18,395.40 -53.0 -0.3

S&P 500 2,169.04 -3.4 -0.2

NASDAQ 5,218.92 +6.7 +0.1

UK 6,838.05 +21.2 +0.3

Germany 10,587.77 +58.2 +0.6

France 4,441.87 +35.3 +0.8

Japan 16,360.71 -195.2 -1.2

South Korea 2,037.50 -5.4 -0.3

Hong Kong 22,909.54 +94.6 +0.4

China 3,070.48 +2.1 +0.1

Taiwan 9,131.72 +16.3 +0.2

Singapore 2,857.65 -19.3 -0.7

Malaysia 1,683.09 +2.8 +0.2

Indonesia 5,438.83 -15.3 -0.3

Philippines 7,845.49 -9.1 -0.1

Trading Summary Buy Sell Net

Institution 4,632 3,728 904

Proprietary 5,155 5,450 -295

Foreign 13,841 14,593 -752

Individuals 24,379 24,236 143

Total Trading Value 48,008 Btmn

Most Active Value Value Close %Chg

BANPU 2,151 16.00 4.6 THAI 1,699 29.50 0.0 PTT 1,462 351.00 1.4 KBANK 1,342 198.00 1.5 CBG 1,203 66.75 8.1

Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg

US Crude 47.64 +0.3 +0.7

Brent Crude 49.92 +0.3 +0.5

Gold 1325.90 +1.3 +0.1

FX Rates Close Chg %Chg

USD/THB 34.65 +0.0 +0.0

EUR/USD 1.12 -0.0 -0.0

USD/JPY 101.93 +0.1 +0.1

USD/CNY 6.67 +0.0 +0.0

Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg

Technical picks (support & resistance)

HANA (S: 28.25, R: 31.50); BANPU (S: 15.30, R: 16.80); CPN (S: 58.25, R: 63.25); SET (S: 1,535, R: 1,560)

Thailand Research Department

Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 02 680 5041

Mr. Krit Suwanpibul (No.17968) Tel: 02 680 5090

Mrs. Vajiralux Sanglerdsillapachai (No. 17385) Tel: 02 680 5077

Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056

Mr. Napat Siworapongpun, CFA, FRM (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094

Daily Market Outlook 29 Aug 2016

2

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Comment: There are still concerns about the lackluster global economic

environment, which should be watched through the remainder of the year.

Meanwhile, Thai National Shippers’ Council is sticking with its FY16

export forecast of a 2% contraction. Minimum export rice price being

considered.

To increase trade and progress rail links with Cambodia. At the 10th

Meeting of the Joint Commission for Bilateral Cooperation between Thailand

and Cambodia, Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai and his Cambodian

counterpart Prak Sokhonn discussed tripling the value of bilateral trade to

US$150bn by 2020. The two ministers also discussed progress on a rail linkage

that will connect Thailand and Cambodia, on which the two countries signed a

memorandum of understanding in December last year. (Bangkok Post) Airport expansion projects still moving ahead to turn Thailand into the

aviation gateway of the region, said Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak.

Airports of Thailand (AOT) recently signed three contracts worth Bt14.9bn to

expand Suvarnabhumi Airport, which is a part of AOT’s six-airport development

master plan involving a 5-year investment horizon worth Bt140-150bn in an

effort to increase the airport's capacity to handle up to 90mn passengers a year

in 2021. (Bangkok Post)

Global issues Yellen gives no clues on rate hike's timing: Fed Chair Janet Yellen told a

gathering of central bankers from around the world in Jackson Hole, Wyoming,

the US economy was nearing the central bank's goals of maximum employment

and price stability but that future hikes should be "gradual". However, later Fed

Vice Chair Stanley Fischer raised the possibility of a rate hike as soon as next

month. As a result, the chances of a rate hike in September climbed to 36%

from 21% on Thursday last week, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Traders are now pricing in a 63.7% likelihood of a hike in December, up from

51.8% Thursday. (Reuters)

US Treasury yields rose to more than one-month highs on Friday as

investors considered whether the Fed is likely to raise interest rates at its

September meeting, after hawkish but noncommittal comments by Fed Chair

Janet Yellen. Benchmark 10-year notes were down 16/32 in price to yield

1.63%, the highest since 24 Jun, and up from 1.56% before the comments.

(Reuters)

The dollar rallied to a two-week high against the yen on Friday as investors

focused on Fed Chair Janet Yellen's comments on an improving US economy

that bolstered the case for an interest rate increase. The dollar index rose 0.8%

at 95.563. Earlier, the index hit a 10-day high. (Reuters)

USA Wall Street shares finished moderately lower on Friday, having bounced

between gains and losses, as the perceived chances of a rate hike increased

after hawkish comments from Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer following the

speech of Fed Chair Janet Yellen who said the case for raising rates had

strengthened even if she did not indicate when the Fed would act. Banking

shares, which stand to gain in a higher rate environment, advanced. However,

sectors likely to be hurt by higher rates, such as utilities and telecoms, fell.

(Reuters)

US 2Q16 GDP growth revised down to 1.1%, but consumer spending shot

up: The US economy grew at a slower pace than initially estimated in 2Q16.

GDP expanded at a 1.1% annual rate that was in line with estimates.

Businesses aggressively ran down inventory of unsold goods, but that was

Daily Market Outlook 29 Aug 2016

3

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offset by a robust 4.4% YoY growth in consumer spending. That makes up two-

thirds of economic activity and increase at the fastest rate since 4Q14. The data

was a slight downward revision of the original 1.2% reported last month. The

economy expanded at a 0.8% pace in 1Q16. It grew 1.0% in 1H16. (Reuters)

Consumer sentiment August final eases back: The University of Michigan

Final Consumer Sentiment for August came in at 89.8, a 0.2 point decrease

from the 90.0 July Final reading. Economists had forecast 90.6. Confidence

eased back in late August to register a trivial decline from the July reading. Less

favorable personal financial prospects were largely offset by a slight

improvement in the outlook for the overall economy. (APViewpoint)

US PCE price index increased +1.0% YoY in 2Q16 up from +0.9% YoY in

1Q16. Core PCE rose +1.6% YoY, the same YoY growth seen in 1Q16.

(Reuters)

Europe European shares rose on Friday after Fed chair Janet Yellen gave no firm

indication about when the Fed might raise interest rates, encouraging markets

after hawkish comments from Fed policymakers last week. (Reuters)

Asia Abe pledges US$30bn for Africa: Japan's PM Shinzo Abe told African leaders

on Saturday that Japan will commit US$30bn in public and private support for

infrastructure development on the continent. Resource-poor Japan has long

been interested in tapping Africa's vast natural resources, even more so since

dependence on oil and natural gas imports jumped after the 2011 Fukushima

nuclear disaster shut almost all of Japan's nuclear reactors. (Reuters)

Profits earned by China's industrial firms grew at their fastest pace in four

months in July, aided by a pick-up in sales and reduced costs. Profits in July

rose 11.0% to 523.01bn yuan, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on

Saturday, the fastest growth rate since March. 7M16 total profits rose 6.9%

YoY, compared with a 6.2% rise in 1H16. Profits in the mining sector fell 77%

YoY while manufacturing profits rose 12.8% YoY. (Reuters)

A rebound in private investment in China "won't be very far off" as

supportive government policy measures take effect, an official from the

country's top economic planner said on Friday. Private investment, which

accounts for about 60% of overall investment in China, grew at 2.1% in July,

compared with 2.8% in 1H16, as investors remain wary about the growth

outlook amid painful reforms in the state-owned enterprise sector. (Reuters)

Commodities Oil prices were unchanged on Friday, as traders reacted to comments from

Fed Chair Janet Yellen and reports of missile activity in Saudi Arabia. At one

point, crude benchmarks were up as much as 2% before drifting lower. Brent

crude futures settled at US$49.92, up 25 cents or 0.5%. US crude futures ended

the session 31 cents higher at US$47.64. (Reuters)

Gold pared gains on Friday, while the dollar turned up and US stocks fell, as

investors struggled to figure out the timing of a US interest rate increase

following comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen and other officials. Spot gold

was up 0.02% at US$1,321.52 an ounce. It was on track to finish the week down

1.5% after two straight weeks higher. (Reuters)

Daily Market Outlook 29 Aug 2016

4

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Mon Wed Thu Fri

1 3 4 5XD

CPNCG

CPNRF

CRYSTAL

DIF

POPF

PPF

SCCC

SIRIP

TGROWTH

XD

DCC

TIW

8 10 11 12XD

SCC

TPC

WHABT

WHART

XD

1DIV

JASIF

LHHOTEL

LHPF

LHSC

QHHR

QHPF

15 17 18 19XD

ADVANC

BH

BH-P

SNC

TBSP

XD

BKKCP

BTSGIF

MIPF

SSTSS

TIF1

TLHPF

TNP

UNIPF

UVAN

XD

BSBM

CSL

GVREIT

SAMTEL

SPCG

TREIT

TU

XD

KCE

MAKRO

MBKET

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PPP

SAMART

SLP

SPALI

SUSCO

TASCO

22 24 25 26XD

ASP

AUCT

BAFS

FSMART

GCAP

INTUCH

KOOL

PDG

SAT

SMPC

TKN

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AF

AMATAR

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BEAUTY

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MALEE

MC

MEGA

M-II

MNIT

MNIT2

M-PAT

M-STOR

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OISHI

PCSGH

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PRIN

PYLON

QLT

S11

SABINA

SENA

SGP

SNP

SPG

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SYNEX

TACC

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WINNER

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29 31XD

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23

30XD

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TAE

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2XD

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Tue

Aug-16

XD

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9

16

Date Regions

29-Aug-16 US

29-Aug-16 US

30-Aug-16 US

30-Aug-16 JP

31-Aug-16 EU

31-Aug-16 EU

1-Sep-16 US

1-Sep-16 US

2-Sep-16 US

2-Sep-16 US Unemployment Rate (Aug)

Economic Indicators

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY) (Jul)

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Aug)

Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)

Consumer Confidence (Aug)

Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (Aug)

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)

ISM Prices Paid (Aug)

5

Please see disclaimer on last page

CG Rating

Score Range Number of Logo Description

90 – 100

80 – 89

70 – 79

60 – 69

50 – 59

Below 50

No logo given

Excellent

Very Good

Good

Satisfactory

Pass

N/A

Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2015.

Corporate Governance Report disclaimer

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors

Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant

to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed

on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative

Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a

general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of

a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on

inside information.

The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate

Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey

result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company

Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

ADVANC BAFS BCP BIGC BTS CK CPN DRT DTAC DTC EASTW EGCO GRAMMYHANA HMPRO INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCE KKP KTB LHBANK LPN MCOT MINTMONO NKI PHOL PPS PS PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC QTC RATCH ROBINS SAMARTSAMTEL SAT SC SCB SCC SE-ED SIM SNC SPALI THCOM TISCO TKT TMBTOP VGI WACOAL

AAV ACAP AGE AHC AKP AMATA ANAN AOT APCS ARIP BMCL BOL BROOKBWG CENTEL CFRESH CHO CIMBT CM CNT COL CPF CPI CSL DCC DELTADEMCO ECF EE ERW GBX GC GFPT GLOBAL GUNKUL HEMRAJ HOTPOT HYDRO ICCICHI INET IRC KSL KTC LANNA LH LOXLEY LRH MACO MBK MC MEGAMFEC NBC NCH NINE NSI NTV OCC OGC OISHI OTO PAP PDI PEPG PJW PM PPP PR PRANDA PREB PT PTG Q-CON QH RS S&JSABINA SAMCO SCG SEAFCO SFP SIAM SINGER SIS SITHAI SMK SMPC SMT SNPSPI SSF SSI SSSC SST STA STEC SVI SWC SYMC SYNTEC TASCO TBSPTCAP TF TGCI THAI THANA THANI THIP THRE THREL TICON TIP TIPCO TKTKS TMI TMILL TMT TNDT TNITY TNL TOG TPC TPCORP TRC TRU TRUETSC TSTE TSTH TTA TTCL TTW TU TVD TVO TWPC UAC UT UVVNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICOVNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICO

2S AEC AEONTS AF AH AIRA AIT AJ AKR AMANAH AMARIN AP APCOAQUA AS ASIA AUCT AYUD BA BEAUTY BEC BFIT BH BIG BJC BJCHIBKD BTNC CBG CGD CHG CHOW CI CITY CKP CNS CPALL CPL CSCCSP CSS CTW DNA EARTH EASON ECL EFORL ESSO FE FIRE FOCUS FORTHFPI FSMART FSS FVC GCAP GENCO GL GLAND GLOW GOLD GYT HTC HTECHIEC IFEC IFS IHL IRCP ITD JSP JTS JUBILE KASET KBS KCAR KGIKKC KTIS KWC KYE L&E LALIN LHK LIT LIVE LST M MAJOR MAKROMATCH MATI MBKET M-CHAI MFC MILL MJD MK MODERN MOONG MPG MSC MTIMTLS NC NOK NUSA NWR NYT OCEAN PACE PATO PB PCA PCSGH PDGPF PICO PL PLANB PLAT PPM PRG PRIN PSTC PTL PYLON QLT RCIRCL RICHY RML RPC S SALEE SAPPE SAWAD SCCC SCN SCP SEAOIL SIRISKR SMG SOLAR SORKON SPA SPC SPCG SPPT SPVI SRICHA SSC STANLY STPISUC SUSCO SUTHA SYNEX TAE TAKUNI TCC TCCC TCJ TEAM TFD TFI TICTIW TLUXE TMC TMD TOPP TPCH TPIPL TRT TSE TSR UMI UP UPFUPOIC UREKA UWC VIBHA VIH VPO WHA WIN XO

Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD)

6

Please see disclaimer on last page

CG Rating

ขอมล Anti-Corruption Progress Indicator ของบรษทจดทะเบยน

ระดบ 1ACD AEONTS AFC AIRA AJ ALUCON AMC AQUA ARIP AUCT BAT-3K BIG BJCBLISS BMCL BOL BRR BSBM CBG CCET CCN CGD CMR CPH CSC CSPCTW DCON DRACO DSGT DTCI E EMC ESSO FOCUS FSMART GIFT GLANDGRAND GUNKUL HFT HTECH IHL ILINK ITD JSP KDH KTIS KTP LEE LSTMAJOR MATCH MAX M-CHAI MDX MIDA ML MPIC NC NEP NNCL NWR OHTLPICO PK PL PPM PRAKIT PRECHA PRIN PSTC PYLON RAM RICH RS SANKOSAUCE SAWAD SAWANG SCN SEAFCO SF SHANG SIRI SMART SMM SOLAR SPACK SPGSPPT SPVI STA STAR SVH SVOA SWC TAPAC TC TCCC TCJ TCOAT THTKS TNH TNPC TPA TPAC TPOLY TRC TRUBB TSE TTA TTI TTL TTTMTWP TWZ U UMS UPA UPOIC UTP UVAN VARO VI VIBHA VIH VTEWG

ระดบ 22S ABICO AF AKP AMARIN AMATA AOT APCO AYUD BEAUTY BFIT BH BKDBLAND BTNC CCP CI CSR CSS EFORL EPCO FE FNS FVC GEL GLOBALHEMRAJ IEC IFS INET JUTHA KASET KCAR KKC KSL L&E LALIN LTX MMALEE MBK MBKET MEGA MK MPG MTLS NCH NCL NPP OCC OCEAN PBPCA PRINC QH ROCK RPC S&J SGP SIAM SIS SKR SMG SMIT SORKONSUSCO TAKUNI TEAM TF TIC TIP TIPCO TMC TMI TPP TRT TRU TRUETSC TSI TTW TVD TVO UKEM UNIQ UWC VNG WIIK WIN XO

ระดบ 3AABC ACAP ADVANC AEC AGE AH AIE AMANAH ANAN AP APCS APURE ASASIA ASIAN ASIMAR BIGC BROOK BTS BWG CEN CENTEL CFRESH CHARAN CHO CHOTICM CNT COL CPALL CPF CPI CPL DELTA DEMCO DIMET DNA DTAC EAECF EE EVER FPI GBX GC GFPT GLOW HMPRO HOTPOT ICC ICHI IFECINOX INSURE IRC JAS JTS JUBILE KC KTC KYE LHK LPN LRH MAKROMC MCOT MFC MFEC MINT MJD MONO MOONG NBC NDR NINE NMG NSINTV OGC PACE PCSGH PDI PG PHOL PLAT PPS PR PRANDA PREB PSQLT RATCH RML ROBINS ROJNA RWI SAMCO SCCC SCG SEAOIL SE-ED SENA SINGERSITHAI SMK SMPC SPALI SPC SPCG SPI SRICHA SSI STANLY SUPER SVI SYMCSYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TCMC TFI THAI THRE THREL TICON TKT TLUXE TNL TPCORPTMILL TMT TSTE TSTH TTCL TU TVI UOBKH UREKA VGI VNT WACOAL WHAZMICO

ระดบ 3BAAV AHC AI AIT AKR ARROW ASK BA BDMS BEC BECL BJCHI BUICGH CHG CHOW CIG CITY CK CKP COLOR CWT EARTH EASON EPG F&DFANCY FIRE FMT FORTH GENCO GL GOLD GPSC GRAMMY HYDRO IRCP IT JCTKCM KWC LH LIT LOXLEY MACO MANRIN MATI MODERN MSC NOBLE NOK NPKNUSA OISHI OTO PAF PAP PATO PF PJW PLANB PLE POLAR PRG PTLQ-CON QTC RCI S11 SALEE SAM SAMART SAMTEL SAPPE SC SCP SFP SIMSLP SMT SPA SPORT SSC SST STEC STPI SUC SUTHA T TAE TBSPTCC TFD TGCI TGPRO THANA THIP TIW TK TMW TNDT TOPP TPC TPCHTPIPL TSR TT TYCN UAC UBIS UEC UMI UP UPF UT UV VPOWAVE WINNER YUASA

ระดบ 4ASP BAFS BANPU BAY BBL BKI BLA CIMBT CNS CSL DCC DRT DTCEASTW ECL EGCO ERW FSS GCAP HANA HTC INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCEKGI KKP KTB LANNA LHBANK MTI NKI PSL PTG PTTEP SABINA SCB SNCSNP SSF SSSC TCAP THCOM TISCO TIMB TMD TNITY TOG

ระดบ 5BCP CPN GYT PE PM PPP PT PTT PTTGC SAT SCC THANI TOP

ไมเปดเผยหรอไมมนโยบายA ACC AJD AQ BCH BGT BROCK BSM BTC CHUO CPR CRANE EICFER JMART JMT KAMART KBS KIAT LDC MBAX MCS METCO NEW NEWS NYTPAE PDG PERM PMTA POST RCL RICHY ROH S SIMAT TCB TR TSFTVT WORKหมายเหตระดบ 1 : มนโยบายระดบ 2 : ประกาศเจตนารมณระดบ 3 : มมาตรการปองกน ซงทง 2 กรณ ถอเปนผลการประเมนในระดบเดยวกน

3A : บรษทมการประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรอภาค3B : บรษทมค ามน และนโยบายของบรษท แตมไดประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรอภาค

ระดบ 4 : ไดรบการรบรองระดบ 5 : ขยายผลสผท เกยวของ

7

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Contact

Branch Address Phone Fax

Head Office 540 Floor 7,14,17 , Mercury Tower, Ploenchit Road, Lumphini,

Pathumwan Bangkok 10330

02-680-5000 02-680-5111

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Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand

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Road, Klong Toey Nua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110

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Pinklao

7/3 Central Plaza Pinklao Office Building Tower B, 16th Flr.,

Room No.1605-1606 Baromrajachonnanee Road, Arunamarin,

Bangkoknoi, Bangkok 10700

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Nonthaburi 11120

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Nonthaburi 11120

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Road, Bangkaew Bangplee, Samutprakarn 10540

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District, Rayong Province 21000

038-808200 038-807200

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40000

043-334-700 043-334-799

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20000

038-053-858 038-784-090

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District, Meung District, Chachoengsao 24000

038-981-587 038-981-591