Daily Markets Overview - Yardeni Research, Inc.ptmbook.yardeni.com/pub/dailyoverview.pdfMarket Briefing: Daily Markets Overview Yardeni Research, Inc. September 25, 2017 Dr. Edward

Market Briefing:Daily Markets Overview

Yardeni Research, Inc.

September 25, 2017

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Joe Abbott732-497-5306

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

September 25, 2017 / Daily Markets Overview www.yardeni.com


S&P 500 Index & Sectors 1P/Es & VIX 2Bonds 3Yield Curve 4High Yield Bonds 5Dollar & Commodities 6CESI 7S&P 500 Equal-Weighted vs. Cap-Weighted 8S&P 500 Sectors 9S&P 400 Sectors 10S&P 600 Sectors 11S&P 1500 Sectors 12S&P 1500/500/400/600 YTD Performance 13S&P 500 Sector Price Indexes 14-18

2014 2015 2016 20171740

1780

1820

1860

1900

1940

1980

2020

2060

2100

2140

2180

2220

2260

2300

2340

2380

2420

2460

2500

2540

1740

1780

1820

1860

1900

1940

1980

2020

2060

2100

2140

2180

2220

2260

2300

2340

2380

2420

2460

2500

2540

9/25S&P 500 INDEX

Source: Standard & Poor’s.Note: Dotted lines show previous years’ closing prices.

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Figure 1.

1 2 3 4 5 8 9 10 11 12 15 16 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 30-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13S&P SECTORS PERFORMANCE: SEPTEMBER 2017 MONTH-TO-DATE(percent change from last trading day of August)

September 2017S&P 500 Index (1.0)Consumer Discretionary (-0.1)Consumer Staples (-0.4)Energy (9.3)Financials (3.3)Health Care (0.4)Industrials (3.6)Information Technology (-1.8)Materials (3.0)Real Estate (-1.8)Telecom Services (3.9)Utilities (-1.7)

Source: Standard & Poor’s. September 2017 M-T-D

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Figure 2.

S&P 500 Index & Sectors

Page 1 / September 25, 2017 / Daily Markets Overview www.yardeni.com


99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 186

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

9/25

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*(daily)

S&P 500 LargeCap (17.6)S&P 400 MidCap (17.8)S&P 600 SmallCap (19.5)

* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 3.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

9/25

VIX: S&P 500

Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.

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Figure 4.

P/Es & VIX



2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

9/25

9/25

US TREASURY 10-YEAR BOND & TIPS YIELDS(percent, daily)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

10-Year Treasury

TIPS Yield (0.38)Bond Yield (2.22)

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Figure 5.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

9/25

EXPECTED INFLATION IN 10-YEAR TIPS*(percent, daily) Expected Inflation (1.84)

* Nominal minus TIPS yield.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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Figure 6.

Bonds



2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-.2

.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

-.2

.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

9/27

9/25

US TREASURY 10-YEAR BOND YIELD & FED FUNDS RATE(percent)

10-Year Bond Yield (2.07)

Fed Funds Rate (1.13)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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Figure 7.

2014 2015 2016 2017 201875

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

75

100

125

150

175

200

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250

275

300

325

9/27

YIELD CURVE*(basis points)

* US Treasury 10-year bond yield less federal funds rate.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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Figure 8.

Yield Curve



2014 2015 2016 2017 20185

6

7

8

9

10

11

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

9/25

US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE YIELD(percent)

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve Board.

yard

eni.

com

Figure 9.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018250

300

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400

450

500

550

600

650

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750

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250

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600

650

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750

800

850

900

9/25

YIELD SPREAD: US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS US TREASURY 10-YEAR BOND(basis points, daily)

Spread (331)

* US high-yield corporate less 10-Year Treasury.Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve Board.

yard

eni.

com

Figure 10.

High Yield Bonds



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2085

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

9/25

JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX*(2000=100, daily)

Trade-WeightedDollar (115.98)

* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia,Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia,Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area.Source: JP Morgan.

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Figure 11.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

200

300

400

500

600

700

9/21

9/21

BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*

Brent Crude OilFutures Price**(dollars per barrel)

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Nearby futures price.

Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 12.

Dollar & Commodities



2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

9/25

CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)

Based on US Dollar (-8.7)

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Source: Citigroup.

Figure 13.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020.35

.40

.45

.50

.55

.60

.65

.70

.35

.40

.45

.50

.55

.60

.65

.70

9/25

9/25

RELATIVE PRICE INDEX: S&P 500 GROWTH & VALUE(relative to S&P 500)

Growth relative to S&P 500Value relative to S&P 500

Rising line indicates thatthe index is outperforming the S&P 500

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Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.

Figure 14.

CESI



90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

9/25

yardeni.com

S&P 500 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED

Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 15.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20200

700

1200

1700

2200

2700

3200

37004200

200

700

1200

1700

2200

2700

3200

37004200

9/25

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S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEXES(ratio scale)

Market-cap-weighted S&P 500Equal-weighted S&P 500


Figure 16.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted vs. Cap-Weighted



Figure 17.

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV2015 2016 2017

500

550

600

650

700

750

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 9/25

S&P 500 sectorprice indexes


400425450475500525550575600625650

INDUSTRIALS 9/25


450

500

550

600

CONSUMER STAPLES9/25


60065070075080085090095010001050

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 9/25


350

425

500

575

650

725

ENERGY

9/25


200

250

300

350

400

MATERIALS9/25


250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

FINANCIALS 9/25


125

150

175

200

225

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

9/25


700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

HEALTH CARE 9/25

Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.


200

225

250

275

300

UTILITIES9/25

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S&P 500 Sectors



Figure 18.


500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

9/25



5005506006507007508008509009501000

INDUSTRIALS 9/25


1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

CONSUMER STAPLES

9/25


1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY9/25


250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

ENERGY

9/25


250275300325350375400425450475500

MATERIALS 9/25


600

675

750

825

900

975

FINANCIALS 9/25


125150175200225250275300325350


9/25


1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

HEALTH CARE9/25



350

375

400

425

450

475

500

525

550

UTILITIES 9/25

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S&P 400 Sectors



Figure 19.


350

400

450

500

550

600


9/25



600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

INDUSTRIALS 9/25


120012501300135014001450150015501600165017001750

CONSUMER STAPLES 9/25


400

450

500

550

600

650

700



200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

ENERGY

9/25


250

300

350

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450

500

550

MATERIALS9/25


625

675

725

775

825

875

925

975

1025

FINANCIALS 9/25


2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


9/25


1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

HEALTH CARE9/25



5506006507007508008509009501000

UTILITIES 9/25

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S&P 600 Sectors



Figure 20.


500

550

600

650

700

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 9/25



425

475

525

575

625

675

INDUSTRIALS 9/25


475

525

575

625

CONSUMER STAPLES9/25


650700750800850900950100010501100



350

425

500

575

650

725

800

ENERGY

9/25


200

250

300

350

400

MATERIALS 9/25


275300325350375400425450475500

FINANCIALS 9/25


125

150

175

200

225


9/25


700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

HEALTH CARE 9/25



225

250

275

300

325

350

UTILITIES9/25

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S&P 1500 Sectors



Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2017

-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

10.9

Figure 21.S&P 1500

All Sectors


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

11.5

S&P 500 LargeCap


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

6.7

S&P 400 MidCap


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

4.7

S&P 600 SmallCap


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

9.3

ConsumerDiscretionary


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

9.9


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

5.4


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

3.8


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

4.9

ConsumerStaples


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

5.2


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

-3.9


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

1.7


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

-10.0Energy


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

-9.0


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

-24.6


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

-30.7


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

8.2

Financials


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

9.2


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

2.8


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

-2.6


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

18.3

Health Care


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

18.2


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

18.1


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

22.6


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

11.7

Industrials


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

12.1


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

11.3


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

6.2


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

22.2

InformationTechnology


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

23.0


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

15.2


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

9.0


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

12.7

Materials


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

13.8


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

12.0


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

.6


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

-7.9TelecomServices


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

-7.7


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

-39.3


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

-.7


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

10.2

Utilities

Source: Standard & Poor’s.


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

10.4


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

7.2


-50-40-30-20-10

0102030

15.8

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S&P 1500/500/400/600 YTD Performance




350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800


9/25

S&P 500S&P 400S&P 600


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Figure 22.


400

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1200

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1600

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2000

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

CONSUMER STAPLES

9/25

S&P 500S&P 400S&P 600


yardeni.com

Figure 23.

S&P 500 Sector Price Indexes




300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

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1300

ENERGY

9/25

S&P 500S&P 400S&P 600


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Figure 24.


250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

1050

250

350

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1050

FINANCIALS

9/25

S&P 500S&P 400S&P 600


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Figure 25.





700

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HEALTH CARE

9/25

S&P 500S&P 400S&P 600


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Figure 26.


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INDUSTRIALS

9/25

S&P 500S&P 400S&P 600


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Figure 27.





300

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

9/25

S&P 500S&P 400S&P 600


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Figure 28.


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MATERIALS

9/25

S&P 500S&P 400S&P 600


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Figure 29.





100

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9/25

S&P 500S&P 400S&P 600


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Figure 30.


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1000

UTILITIES

9/25

S&P 500S&P 400S&P 600


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Figure 31.




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Documents

Daily Markets Overview - Yardeni Research, Inc.ptmbook.yardeni.com/pub/dailyoverview.pdfMarket Briefing: Daily Markets Overview Yardeni Research, Inc. September 25, 2017 Dr. Edward