Debate and Business Challenges

A lot of the warming took place between 1970 and 1998

If warming continues at the average rate from 1910 to 2000, effects on civilization will be severe

There are strong reasons to believe that at least some of the warming after 1970 has been created by business activity

The recent climate record according to 3 “standard” models

Beyond these basic points, everything is controversial

95%+ of professional climate scientists don’t agree with my statement that things are controversial, but …

Most climate scientists believe what we are doing to the planet (increasing emissions of carbon

dioxide, methane) is certain to cause catastrophe But a few do not

◦ Richard Lenzen, Alfred Sloan Professor of Climate Science at M.I.T.

◦ John Christy, NOAA-funded researcher at U. of Alabama

Experts in seemingly related fields are skeptical ◦ Forecasting, decision science

The stakes are high

contradictory claims; threat that we may seriously damage

civilization. A big question: Just what is our

responsibility?

Much of human history took place during ice ages

Emergence of agriculture and spurt in population took place just after a moderate warming◦ After that climate was unusually stable

Warming was noted in the 1930s, continued to the 40s, but was reversed 1945-1971◦ Maybe because this was the era of high

particulate-emitting cars and factories in America and Europe?

Warming resumed after 1971 Today the earth is at least 1 〫 or so

warmer than in 1910

Most are poorly understood But clearly, some gases let more heat come

in than they allow to go out ◦ Business activity is increasing the amount of

these gases

And some things humans do make things cooler ◦ Soot in the atmosphere

Mainstream climate scientists’ models suggest current trends lead to 3 〫more warming by 2010◦ and much more heating after that◦ Carbon burned today stays in atmosphere a long time

Many climate scientists thing things will be worse◦ They’re asked to be ‘cautious’ in their projections◦ Today’s models don’t include recent developing world

acceleration

Heat waves Stronger hurricanes Change in locations where rain falls Higher sea levels Less food production in tropical countries

◦ But more food production further from the equator

Not necessarily the end of civilization, but not a world we’d like to see

John Christy, a co-author of the original IPCC reports, says:◦ Standard estimates overstate warming because of

urbanization around the temperature measuring sites Parking lots, new air conditioners, buildings radiating

heat have been created near some measuring equipment◦ Christy & Spenser measure temperature using NASA

satellite data, get much lower numbers ◦ “The real atmosphere has many ways to respond to

the changes that increased CO2 forces on it” Some data suggests as earth warms, cloud cover

increases, limiting warming

In recent decades, researchers in forecasting and decision sciences have tried to identify when ‘expert opinion’ is reliable

Their rules say: Create a simple causal model They say if the model is complex and

contains lots of uncertainty, it isn’t reliable◦ So they’re skeptical about standard climate

scientists Armstrong (forecasting expert) says: do

nothing Christy says: Build nuclear power

Yes, often. Some non-successes ◦ Psychological testing programs ◦ Econometric forecasting ◦ Psychoanalysis

But probably never with such high stakes

At minimum, the global warming story is a careful but potentially fallible weather forecast ◦ It may be wrong◦ But so might the forecasts today on weather.com

◦ The fact that forecasts might be wrong doesn’t prevent us from refusing to go on picnics when forecasts say it will rain

Standard science argues it’s important to keep global temperatures from rising more than 2 〫

Standard estimates suggest big declines in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to keep rise to that level ◦ Because carbon entering atmosphere today stays for

200 years or so, gas produced post-WW II is just beginning to affect the earth

◦ Demanded cut are unlike anything close to passing Congress A WW II-level mobilization?

Energy is by many measures the world’s largest industry

If it’s changing rapidly, there will be lots of opportunity

◦ (If China’s currency is undervalued, the opportunity may go to China)

Government will remake the energy world ◦ Silicon Valley business can prosper ◦ It won’t be surprising if others resent us

While many businesspeople may prosper, there will be need for many to sacrifice