Demand and Acceptance of Energy Technologies

EPPSA Technology Forum

23.1.2012 Piet Sellke and Ortwin Renn

University of Stuttgart and DIALOGIK gemeinnützige GmbH

PART I

Concepts

and basic approaches

Innovation: Starting Point

Fate of innovation depends on:

Observed regularities and trends, Natural

Technological

Social

Human decisions Individual (inventor, innovator, developer, user)

Collective (industry, regulators, consumers, etc.)

Random events (noise)

Innovation Theory in Energy I:

Observed regularities and trends

Physical Development – Human population and ecosystem dynamics (ecology)

– Physical environment and climate (natural sciences)

Technology Development – Technology Pull (engineering, natural science)

– Demand Push (economics, behavioral sciences)

Societal Development – Socio-cultural context (sociology, history, psychology)

– Energy futures (Economics, philosophy, social sciences)

Innovation Theory in Energy II:

Human decisions Behavioral simulation (acceptance, consumption)

– Individual preferences (economics, behavioral sciences)

– Mobilization/protest (political science, sociology)

Institutional and organizational changes

– Instruments and incentives (economics)

– Legal context and frames (legal studies)

– Political and social barriers/promoters (political studies, policy sciences)

Random events Risk assessments (interdisciplinary)

Foresights / future studies (interdisciplinary)

PART II

Insights about social acceptance

Three Domains of Technology I

o Household and leisure technology

o Allocation: market

o Test for acceptance: purchase (personal preferences)

o Areas of conflict: liability, quality, external effects

o Technology at work

o Allocation: corporate decision making

o Test for acceptance: active utilization

o Areas of conflict: rationalization, stress, co-determination

Three Domains of Technology II

External technology (neighbor) Allocation: interface of economy, politics and civil society

o Test for acceptance

o conventional: legal provisions, licensing, voting

o unconventional: protest, political mobilization

o Areas of conflict: Equity, legitimacy, vision of the future

o Major conflict areas: nuclear energy, genetic engineering, waste disposal plants, nanotechnology

Application to Energy

• Household and leisure technology

• High demand for electric appliances (Germany top in Europe)

o Overall positive appraisal for renewable energy but purchase behavior depends highly on relative costs and expectations of their future developments

o Problem of rebound effect (Jason paradox for efficiency)

o Energy at work

o High correlations with cost and expected cost savings

o Energy efficiency is widely recognized as priority

o Further reductions depend on structural changes and systemic cooperation

Application to Energy

External technology (neighbor) o Strong opposition against centralized energy facilities,

in particular nuclear power stations and nuclear waste repositories

o Negative attitudes towards fossil power plants but degree of mobilization less severe than for nuclear

o Starting opposition against large scale application of renewable energy (biomass, wind)

o Local opposition against new energy infrastructure

o Growing sensitivity to cost increase

11 34

Risk perception (I/II)

Human behavior depends on perception, not on facts!

Qualitative Risk Characteristics:

Risk-related patterns

Perceived dread

Familiarity with the risk

Sensual perceptibility

Situation-related patterns

Personal controllability

Voluntariness

Trust in risk management

Fair distribution of gains and losses

12 34

Risk perception (II/II)

Semantic risk patterns

Risks posing an immediate threat (large dams, nuclear energy)

Risks dealt with as a blow of fate (natural disasters)

Risk as challenge to one‘s own strenght (sports)

Risk as a gamble (lotteries, stock exchange)

Risks as an early indication of insidious danger (food additives, viruses)

Stigmatisation of Risk

Social amplification of Risk

Preferences: technology ranking US and GER

Efficiency 2,3 2,3 2,4

Efficiency 2,0

3,0

Wind Offshore 2,6

3,3 Solar Thermal 3,3

Nuclear 4,0

4,2

8,6

Nuclear 10,5

IGCC with CCS 4,2 4,4

6,0

IGCC with CCS 7,0

Wind Onshore 4,4 4,7

3,6

Wind Onshore 3,2

Biomass 5,4 5,3 5,2 Biomass 5,2

Natural Gas 5,8

5,4 5,3 Natural Gas 5,6

PV Solar 6,4 6,3

4,1 PV Solar 3,9

PC with CCS 7,0 6,9

7,6

PC with CCS 8,1

IGCC 7,1 7,1 7,0

IGCC 7,0

PC 8,5 8,5

8,7

PC 8,8

Before Discussion After Discussion

Before Discussion After Discussion

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

US DE Best

Worse

PART III

Insights about energy consumption

Rebound Effect

Definition: An increase in energy efficiency correlates with an increase in energy consumption (income effect and behavioral effect)

Households: Between 1990 und 2005: efficiency gains: 32% ; Increase in demand: 21%; since 2008 stabilized (light decrease 2009)

Influential Factors on Energy Behavior

Ability (structural und situational conditions)

System knowledge of users

Legal constraints

Temporal and local constraints

Availability of resources

Motivation (personal incentives)

Expectation of net benefits

Positive association with one‘s preferences, values, and word-views

Positive attitude

Compatibility with habitual behavioral patterns

Positive reinforcements

Social recognition

Intervention Studies (Results)

Intrinsic

Individual counseling and knowledge transfer

Contracting solutions (problem: moral hazard)

Feedback of consumption and energy savings

Financial incentives (subsidies)

Extrinsic

Avoidance of the tragedy of the commons (individual contribution)

Collective goals and feedback

External visibility of energy saving behavior

Influence of highly esteemed reference groups

Cooperative planning for infrastructure investments

PART IV

Conclusions

Conclusions I

Innovation depends on: Systematic trends

Human decisions

Random events

Social Sciences and Humanities can contribute: Design of scenarios and different energy futures

Individual and organizational decision making and behavioral responses

Identification of constraints, promoters and legal frameworks

Incentives and instruments for change

Risk assessments, foresight and future studies

Conclusions II

Crucial factors for acceptance are:

Large-scale technology: fear of catastrophic risks, environmental pollution, and lack of societal control

Scaling effects of decentralized systems: protest if decentralized systems reach high density or lead to major cumulative impacts

Rebound effect: Most energy efficiency gains have been compensated and over-compensated by increase in demand

Transformation to post-carbon economics will fail if behavioral variables and context conditions are not adequately addressed

Quote

To progress in knowledge and action means to doubt what conventional wisdom suggests

(Aristotle)

THANK YOU! sellke@dialogik-expert.de