DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS OF INDIAshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/147711/16/12_chapter4.pdf · demographic transition helps to understand and analyze the Change in volume of population

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CHAPTER - 4

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS OF INDIA

INDEX : 4.1 Introduction 4.2 India’s Demographic Phases 4.3 Share of Population of States to India’s Total Population 4.4 Decadal Growth Rate of Population Since, 1951 4.5 Birth Rates & Death Rates 4.6 Sex Composition of India and other Select Countries 4.7 Sex Composition of India 4.8 Sex Selective Abortions in India 4.9 Sex ratios at Birth by Wealth Status 4.10 Sex ratios at birth by use of Ultrasound Testing during Pregnancy 4.11 Government Response 4.12 Conclusion References

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CHAPTER - 4

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS OF INDIA

4.1 Introduction:

With a view point of economic development and economic welfare, studying the demography of any country is very important. The theory of demographic transition helps to understand and analyze the Change in volume of population.

In 2001, the population of India was 1027 million which was one-sixth of the world population. In 2011, the population rose to 1210 million. The population of India is second largest in the world. Area wise, India is at the seventh position in the world. Today, India has merely 2.4% of total land area of the world and approximately 17% of the population of the world resides in this country. The following table shows the population of top ten most populated countries of the world as per 2015. More than half of the world population lives in these top ten populous countries.

Table No. 4.1 Top ten Countries with the Highest Population (in Millions)

Country 2015 Population

China 1,361

India 1,251

United States 321

Indonesia 255

Brazil 204

Pakistan 199

Nigeria 181

Bangladesh 168

Russia 146

Japan 126 Source: US Census Bureau Website

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Figure 4.1 Top ten Countries with the Highest Population (in Millions) 2015

Source : Table 4.1

Form the above table, it can be seen that,

1. India has become the second most populous country after China which has officially crossed the mark of one billion population. India and China are creating a history of shaping the lives and future of more than a billion people.

2. Though as per the above table, rank of USA is third in the world, there is a great gap of 930 million between the populations of India and USA.

3. It is estimated that by 2050, India will probably become the most populous country in the world.

4.2 India’s Demographic Phases:

The saga of growth of population in India is almost in tune with the popular theory of demographic transition. A study of growth rate of India’s population can be categorised into four phases -

Phase I: 1901 – 1921 (Stagnant Population) Phase II: 1921 – 1951 (Steady Growth) Phase III: 1951 – 1981 (Rapid Growth) Phase IV: 1981 – 2011 (High growth with significant of slowing down) The theory of demographic transition can be state in detail as follows-

4.2.1 Phase I: 1901-1921

During 1901 to 1921, the population of India raise from 236 million to 251 million, i.e, during the first 20 years the population increased by 15 million only. During this phase, the high birth rate was neutralized by high death rate. The reason for stagnant population was that the birth rate was more or less same as death rate. The compound annual growth rate during

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,400

1,3611,251

321 255 204 199 181 168 146 126

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this period was very low. During this period it was just 0.19% per year. During most of the nineteenth century, India witnessed a fluctuation in population growth but it was more or less a stagnant population growth that drifted into the twentieth century until 1921.

The following table shows a decadal growth of population during the Phase I (1901-1921)

Table 4.2 India’s Population Size and Growth (1901-1921)

Year Population Increase / Decrease (in

Millions)

% Decadal growth

% Change in Decadal

Growth

% Annual Exponential growth rate

1901 23,83,96,327 -- -- -- --

1911 25,20,93,390 14.00 05.75 -- 0.56

1921 25,13,21,213 -1.00 -0.31 -6.05 -0.03

1901-1921 13.00 5.44 -6.05 0.19

Source: Collected from Census of India, 1901, 1911 and 1921

From the above table it can be seen, -

1. During the first decade, the population grew by 14 million i.e., by 5.75%.

2. The second decade witnessed a fall in population by approximately 1 million i.e., by 0.31%.

3. The stable population during this phase was result of almost equal birth rate and death rate.

The first phase witnessed a growth rate of 5.42 percent in India’s population. The decade 1901-11 was struck by several local famines. One such famine took place in 1907 in Uttar Pradesh. In addition to this, plague claimed a heavy toll of life during this period in Bengal and Bombay. Also, plague and malaria caused a considerable number of deaths in UP and Punjab. The situation was even worse during 1911 to 1921 when India’s population reduced considerably in the wake of influenza epidemic, which had stuck in 1919. It is estimated that epidemic took away the life of nearly 7 percent of population of India.

From 1921 onward, acceleration in the rate of population growth was witnessed due to a progressive control of the epidemic of cholera and plague.

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4.2.2 Phase II: 1921-1951

The second phase of India’s population growth (phase of steady growth) continued for 30 years from 1921 to 1951. The population increased from 251 million in 1921 to 361 million in 1951 i.e., by 110 million. The compound growth rate of population during this period was 1.22% per year which was a moderate growth rate. This phase was characterized by a decline in death rate. There was a decline in birth rate but this decline was negligible. The death rate during this phase decreased from 47 per thousand to 27 per thousand. The fall in death rate during this period was mainly due to control of epidemics like small pox, plague, cholera etc. that were wide spread. During this period, India has begun to enter into the second phase of demographic transition.

The following table shows a decadal growth of population during the Phase II (1921-1950)



Millions)

% Decadal growth

% Change in Decadal

Growth


1931 27,89,77,298 28.00 11.00 11.31 1.04

1941 31,86,60,580 40.00 14.22 03.22 1.33

1951 36,10,88,090 42.00 13.31 -0.91 1.25

1921-1951 110.00 02.31 1.22

Source: Collated from Census of India, 1931, 1941 and 1951

From the above table it can be seen that,-

1. There has been a rise in the population during each decade of this phase.

2. In 1951, the population rose but at a decreasing rate.

3. From 1921 to 1951, the population of India increased by 110 millions.

4.2.3 Phase III: 1951 to 1981

The third phase was considered from 1951 to 1981. This phase lasted for 30 years. During this period, the population of India grew from 361 million in 1951 to 683 million in 1981. There was a growth of population by 322 million during this phase. The compound annual growth of the population during this period was registered 2.14 percent per year. This was the phase when both death rate as well as birth rate declined.

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With the beginning of planning, the provision of medical facilities was under taken by government on large scale; the death rate declined sharply and reached the level of 15 lives per thousand. The birth rate also declined during this phase. The decline in birth rate was 39 to 40 percent per thousand during this period. It can be said that during this period there was a sharp decline in the death rate while birth rate declined at a very slow rate. As a result of this, there was a population explosion during this phase. Hence, this phase was marked with rapid growth of population.

The following table shows a decadal growth of population during the Phase III (1951-1981)



Millions)

% Decadal growth

% Change in Decadal

Growth


1961 43,92,34,771 078 21.64 08.33 1.96

1971 54,81,59,652 109 24.80 03.16 2.20

1981 68,33,29,097 135 24.66 -0.14 2.22

1951-1981 322 03.02 2.14


From the above table it can be seen that, -

1. There has been a steady rise in the population during these three decades.

2. During 1971-1981, the population increased but at a decreasing rate.

3. After 1951, there was a steep fall in mortality rate. However during this period the fertility rate remained high. Hence, very high rate of population growth of over 2% was noticed during this period and this period is often referred as the period of population explosion.

4.2.4 Phase IV: 1981-2011

The last phase of 20th century i.e., the fourth phase is the period between census years 1981 to 2011. This phase is also known as the period of high growth with definite sign of slowing down. The growth rate started declining after 1981.

India entered the fourth phase of transition after 1981, when during 1981-1990 the decennial growth rate of population declined to 23.86

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percent. It further declined to 21.34 percent during 1991 to 2001, showing a decrease of 2.52 percent (please refer to table no. 3.5)

“Most Indian states such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat and Assam have recorded low birth rates during this phase which makes them eligible to enter in the fourth phase of transition”1. But still it will take some more years for complete implementation of family planning programme in the states of M.P, U.P, Bihar and Rajasthan for India as a whole to enter in the fourth phase of transition.

The following table shows a decadal growth of population during the Phase IV (1981-2011)



Millions)

% Decadal growth

% Change in Decadal

Growth


1991 0,84,63,87,888 161 23.86 -0.80 2.14

2001 1,02,70,15,247 183 21.34 -2.52 1.93

2011 1,21,01,93,422 183 17.64 -3.70 1.64


From the above table it can be seen that -

1. Although the net addition has increased consistently from 1991 to 2011, a steady declining trend in the change in net addition is seen.

2. The compound annual growth rate of population reduced from 2.14 percent to 1.64 percent per year as a result of which decadal growth rate became negative.

3. Thus, this phase showed a high growth of population characterised by signs of declining growth rate.

The important question is how long coil this phase extends and when will India achieve a stable population. The National Population Policy (NPP) 2000, adopted by the GoI states that ‘the long-term objective is to achieve a stable population by 2045, at a level consistent with the requirement of sustainable economic growth, social development and environment protection’. No doubt, a Herculean effort will be required to achieve this goal of stable population.

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4.3 Share of Population of States to India’s Total Population: To get a micro view of population demography in India, it is necessary to

study the share of population of States and Union Territories to the total population of India. Following table shows the relative share of population of states and UTs to the total population of India.

Table No. 4.6 State and UTs by Population Size

Rank in 2011

State / UTs Population in 2011

Percentage of total population of India

2011 2001 1991

1 Uttar Pradesh 199,281,477 16.49 16.16 15.60

2 Maharashtra 112,372,972 09.28 09.42 09.33

3 Bihar 103,804,637 08.58 08.07 07.62

4 West Bengal 91,347,736 07.55 07.79 08.04

5 Andhra Pradesh 49,386,799 04.08 07.41 07.86

6 Madhya Pradesh 72,597,565 06.00 05.87 05.74

7 Tamil Nadu 72,138,958 05.96 06.07 06.59

8 Rajasthan 68,621,012 05.67 05.49 05.20

9 Karnataka 61,130,704 05.05 05.14 05.31

10 Gujarat 60,383,628 05.00 04.93 04.88

11 Odisha 41,947,358 03.47 03.58 03.74

12 Telangana 35,286,757 02.97 -- --

13 Kerala 33,387,677 02.76 03.10 03.44

14 Jharkhand 32,966,238 02.72 02.62 02.58

15 Assam 31,169,272 02.58 02.59 02.64

16 Punjab 27,704,236 02.30 02.37 02.40

17 Chhattisgarh 25,540,196 02.11 02.03 02.08

18 Haryana 25,353,081 02.09 02.06 01.95

19 Jammu & Kashmir 12,548,926 01.04 00.99 00.92

20 Uttarakhand 10,116,752 00.84 00.83 00.84

21 Himachal Pradesh 6,856,509 00.57 00.59 00.61

22 Tripura 3,671,032 00.30 00.31 00.33

23 Meghalaya 2,964,007 00.24 00.22 00.21

24 Manipur 2,721,756 00.22 00.23 00.23

25 Nagaland 1,980,602 00.16 00.19 00.14

26 Goa 1,457,723 00.12 00.13 00.14

27 Arunachal Pradesh 1,382,611 00.11 00.11 00.10

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28 Mizoram 1,091,014 00.09 00.09 00.08

29 Sikkim 607,688 00.05 00.05 00.05

NCT Delhi 16,753,235 01.38 01.35 01.11

UT1 Puducherry 1,244,464 00.10 00.09 00.10

UT2 Chandigarh 1,054,686 00.09 00.09 00.08

UT3 Andaman & Nicobar 379,944 00.03 00.03 00.03

UT4 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 342,853 00.03 00.02 00.02

UT5 Daman and Diu 242,911 00.02 00.02 00.01

UT6 Lakshadweep 64,429 00.01 00.01 00.01 Source: Primary Census Abstract, Census of India, 2001 and 2011

Figure 4.2

State and UTs by Population Size

Source: Table No. 4.6

From the above table, it can be seen that, -

1. Uttar Pradesh, so far, is the most populated state in the country with over 199 million population residing here. This figure is more than the population of Pakistan which is the sixth most populated nation in the world.

2. Twenty states in India have population of more than 10 million

3. Nearly 50 percent of the population live of India is in five states viz. West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

4. On the other hand, there are eight states and UTs in India that are yet to reach the population around one million.

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4.4 Decadal Growth Rate of Population Since, 1951

4.4.1 Introduction

The decadal growth rate is an important part of census operations. The decadal growth rate provides an overview of the percentage of total population growth in a particular decade. Therefore, it is called as ‘Decadal Growth Rate’. As per the provisional report published during 31st March 2011, India showed a decadal growth rate of 17.64% as compared to 21.15% in census 2001. The decade of 2001-2011 is the first ever census decade in post Indian Independence, which added least number of people to the country.

The analysis of growth rates of states from 1951 tells the real story of population growth in India. After 1951, many states in the country have managed to get a downward swing in the population growth. However, the span of time taken by states to achieve this fall has been much which would make it difficult for India to attain a stable population by 2045. Table 3.7 gives the data about decadal growth rate of population since 1951 of states and UTs of India.

Table No. 4.7 Percentage Decadal growth rate of population: 1951-2011

S.N. States / UTs 51-61 61-71 71-81 81-91 91-01 01-11 1 Nagaland 73.40 39.90 50.10 56.10 64.53 -00.50 2 Dadra and Nagar Haveli 39.60 28.00 39.80 33.60 59.22 55.50 3 Daman and Diu -24.60 70.90 26.10 28.60 55.73 53.50 4 Delhi 52.40 52.90 53.00 51.50 47.02 21.00 5 Chandigarh 394.10 114.60 75.60 42.20 40.28 -- 6 Sikkim 17.80 29.40 50.80 28.50 33.06 12.41 7 Meghalaya 27.00 31.50 32.00 32.90 30.75 27.80 8 Jammu and Kashmir 09.40 29.70 29.70 30.90 29.43 23.72 9 Mizoram 35.60 24.90 48.60 39.70 28.82 22.80

10 Bihar 19.80 20.90 24.20 23.40 28.62 25.00 11 Haryana 33.80 32.20 28.80 27.40 28.43 19.90 12 Rajasthan 26.20 21.80 33.00 28.40 28.41 21.40 13 Arunachal Pradesh N.A. 38.90 35.20 36.80 27.00 25.90 14 Andaman and Nicobar 105.20 81.20 63.30 48.70 26.90 06.70 15 Uttar Pradesh 16.40 19.50 25.40 25.60 25.85 20.09 16 Manipur 35.00 37.50 32.50 29.30 24.86 18.70 17 Madhya Pradesh 24.70 29.30 27.20 27.20 24.26 20.23

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18 Jharkhand 19.70 22.60 23.80 24.00 23.36 22.36 19 Maharashtra 23.60 27.50 24.50 25.70 22.73 15.99 20 Gujarat 26.90 29.40 27.70 21.20 22.66 19.20 21 Puducherry 16.30 27.80 28.20 39.60 20.62 27.70 22 Uttarakhand 20.60 24.90 27.50 23.10 20.41 19.20 23 Punjab 21.60 21.70 23.90 20.80 20.10 13.70 24 Assam 35.00 35.00 23.40 24.20 18.92 16.90 25 Chhattisgarh 22.80 27.10 20.40 25.70 18.27 22.60 26 West Bengal 32.80 26.90 23.20 24.70 17.77 13.93 27 Himachal Pradesh 17.90 23.00 23.70 20.80 17.54 12.80 28 Karnataka 21.60 24.20 26.80 21.10 17.51 15.70 29 Lakshadweep 14.60 32.00 26.50 28.50 17.30 06.20 30 Odisha 19.80 25.10 20.20 20.10 16.25 14.00 31 Tripura 78.70 36.30 31.90 34.30 16.03 14.70 32 Goa 07.80 34.80 26.70 16.10 15.21 08.20 33 Andhra Pradesh 15.70 20.90 23.10 24.20 14.59 11.10 34 Tamil Nadu 11.90 22.30 17.50 15.40 11.72 15.60 35 Kerala 24.80 26.30 19.20 14.30 09.43 04.90 India 21.60 24.80 24.70 23.90 21.54 17.64

Source: Primary Census Abstract: Census of India 2001 and 2011.


1. It took almost 40 years for Kerala, Goa and Lakshadweep to reach a decadal growth rate below 10%.

2. For the first time, the percentage of decadal growth in the country has declined by 3.90% in census 2011. The present census (2011) has reported a decline in the growth rate from 21.54% to 17.64%.

3. Andhra Pradesh has shown an impressive fall in decadal growth rate by over ten percent during last two decades. This inspires a confidence that it is possible to cross all barriers to achieve a noteworthy decline in growth of population.

4.5 Birth Rates and Death Rates:

The growth of population depends on the birth rates and the death rates. The variations in the birth rate and death rate help in providing an explanation about acceleration in the growth of population.

The trend in birth and death rates in India is presented in Table 3.8. The data since 1901 is given in the table. The estimates up to 1971 are ‘indirect’ based on age distributions of population enumerated by successive census. The sample

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registration system started in India in 1971 to provide annual estimates that are reasonably ‘reliable’.

The death rate in India started declining after 1920 and the trend is continuous. The birth rate also shows a downward trend form the beginning of this century, the decline in rate of birth has been much slower than that of the drop in the death rate. This has led to growth of population. Since, net international migration to or from India has been relatively negligible, the rate of natural increase is almost equal to the growth rate.

The following table shows the birth and death rates in India since, 1891.

Table No. 4.8 Average Annual Birth and Death Rates in India

Decade Birth per 1000 Deaths per 1000 1891-1900 45.80 44.40 1900-1910 48.10 42.60 1911-1920 49.20 48.60 1921-1930 46.40 36.30 1931-1940 45.20 31.20 1941-1950 39.90 27.40 1951-1960 40.00 18.00 1961-1970 41.20 19.20 1971-1980 37.20 15.00 1981-1990 32.50 15.00 1991-2000 25.80 08.00 2001-2010 21.30 07.40

Source: Davis (1951); India, Registrar general (1954), Jain (1982); Office of registrar General, Sample Bulletin (various issue)

Figure 4.3 Average Annual Birth and Death Rates in India


01020304050 45.8 48.1 49.2 46.4 45.2

39.9 40 41.237.2

32.525.8

21.3

44.4 42.648.6

36.331.2

27.4

18 19.215 15

8 7.4

Birth per 1000 Deaths per 1000

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1. Initially before 1921, the growth of population was very low. Though the birth rate varied between 46 and 49 per thousand which made the growth rate of population negligible.

2. After 1921, there was a fall in the death rate from 48.60 per thousand during 1921-1930 and ultimately it reached 7.4 per thousand during 2001-2010.

3. The birth rate also showed a decline after 1971 due to the family planning programs. But the rate of decline was relatively less. This was evidenced in the high rate of survival.

4. Hence, the high growth rate of population can be said to be an outcome of consistently high birth rate but a relatively fast declining death rate.

4.6 Sex Composition of India and other Select Countries:

The ordinary person believes that the males and females in the population are exactly equal i.e. they balance each other. However, in reality there is an imbalance in the sexes across the world. In 2001, the world had 986 females per 1000 males. Table 3.16 presents the global sex ratio of the ten most populous countries in the world. It can be seen that the problem of imbalance in sex ratio is prevalent not only in India but among most of the countries in the world. The British Census Commissioners view that the geographical and sociological factors like climate, race, food habits, season of gestation, polyandry are the reasons affecting the sex ratio but there is no statistical evidence that could support the reason. Hence, it is difficult to find out any particular reason for declining gender ratio.

Table No. 4.9 Sex Ratio of Selected Countries: 2001

Country Sex Ratio World 986 China 944 India 933 USA 1,029 Indonesia 1,004 Brazil 1,025 Pakistan 938 Russian Federation 1,140 Bangladesh 953 Japan 1,041 Nigeria 1,061

Source: www.persmin.gov.in

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From the above table, it can be seen that, - 1. Of the 10 most populous countries, only four countries have fewer females

compared to men. 2. All Asian countries have less sex ratio, except Indonesia and Japan.

4.7 Sex Composition of India

Sex ratio is a perfect way for finding the number of women in any country. It shows the ratio of females to that of males in India. As per census 2011, there were 940 females per 1000 males which show an upward trend form census 2001 data when there were 933 females per 1000 males. The sex ratio of India has never been favorable for women. Moreover, except some exceptions, the sex ratio of India has shown a long term decreasing trend.

The following table shows the trends in sex ratio of India since 1901.

Table No. 4.10 Sex Ratio India (1901-2011)

Census Yr. Sex Ratio 1901 972 1911 964 1921 955 1931 950 1941 945 1951 946 1961 941 1971 930 1981 934 1991 927 2001 933 2011 940

Source: www. y4e.in

Figure 4.4 Sex Ratio India (1901-2011)

900910920930940950960970980

1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Sex

Ratio

Census Year

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From the above table, it can be seen that -

1. The gender ratio at the start of the twentieth century was 972 and since then it has showed a continuous fall until 1941.

2. In 1951, there was a marginal rise of one point, but after that it showed a decline for two continuous decades to reach 930in 1971. The major decline of 11 points in the gender ratio was seen during 1961-71.

3. In 2011, the sex ratio was 940 which showed an upward trend of seven points as compared to 2001.

Social scientists, demographers, research scholars, women’s group and various policy makers and planners have always shown a keen interest in the gender ratio of population of India. There are several reasons for consistently low levels of gender ratio. Some of common reasons are listed below -

1. Ignoring the girl child leading to higher mortality. 2. High maternal mortality. 3. Sex selective abortions. 4. Female infanticide. 5. Change in gender ratio at birth.

The imbalance in the sex ratio starts in the beginning. According to law of nature that male children exceed female children at the time of birth. The sex ratio at birth is generally 943-952 female for every 1000 males, which meansin each birth cohort there is a shortage of nearly 50 females per thousand males. However, since 1961 the sex ratio of India has been lower than the range of 943-952.

The sex ratio of India is an average of the sex ratios of all the states and UTs. Table 4.10 gives the data about gender ratio of the total population, Child Sex Ratio (falling in the age group 0-6) and sex ratio of population above the age of 7 years. The data pertains to three decades from 1991 to 2011 for all the states and UTs.

Table No. 4.11 Sex Ratio (females per 1000 males)

S.N. States / UTs Total Pop. Child Pop 0-6 Pop 7 and Above

1991 2001 2011 1991 2001 2011 1991 2001 1 Jammu and Kashmir NA 900 883 NA 937 862 NA 894 2 Himachal Pradesh 976 970 974 951 897 909 980 981 3 Punjab 882 874 893 875 793 846 883 886 4 Chandigarh 790 773 818 899 845 880 772 763 5 Uttaranchal 936 964 963 948 906 890 933 976 6 Haryana 865 861 879 879 820 834 862 869 7 Delhi 827 821 866 915 865 871 810 813 8 Rajasthan 910 922 926 916 909 888 908 925

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9 Uttar Pradesh 876 898 908 927 916 902 863 895 10 Bihar 907 921 877 953 938 935 895 916 11 Sikkim 878 875 889 965 986 957 860 858 12 Arunachal Pradesh 859 901 920 982 961 972 829 888 13 Nagaland 886 909 931 993 975 943 865 899 14 Manipur 958 978 987 974 961 936 955 981 15 Mizoram 921 938 975 969 971 970 911 932 16 Tripura 945 950 961 967 975 957 940 947 17 Meghalaya 955 975 986 986 975 970 947 974 18 Assam 923 932 954 975 964 962 910 926 19 West Bengal 917 934 950 967 963 956 907 929 20 Jharkhand 922 941 947 979 966 948 908 936 21 Odisha 971 972 978 967 950 941 972 976 22 Chhattisgarh 985 990 991 984 975 969 986 992 23 Madhya Pradesh 912 920 930 941 929 918 905 918 24 Gujarat 934 921 918 928 878 890 936 927 25 Daman and Diu 969 709 618 958 925 904 971 682 26 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 952 811 775 1013 973 926 937 779 27 Maharashtra 934 922 925 946 917 894 931 923 28 Andhra Pradesh 972 978 992 975 964 961 972 980 29 Karnataka 960 964 978 960 949 948 960 966 30 Goa 967 960 968 964 933 942 967 964 31 Lakshadweep 943 947 946 941 974 911 943 943 32 Kerala 1036 1058 1084 958 963 964 1049 1071 33 Tamil Nadu 974 986 995 948 939 943 978 992 34 Pondicherry 979 1001 1038 963 958 967 982 1007 35 Andaman &Nicobar 818 846 878 973 965 968 790 830


1. The diversity in gender ratio among the state and UTs is phenomenal. The sex ratio varied from 818 in Chandigarh to 1084 in Kerala in 2011. Even in 1991 and 2001, the sex ratio of Chandigarh was at the top.

2. In case of Child Sex ratio, Haryana was at the bottom with CSR of 834 while Meghalaya and Mizoram were at the top with CSR of 970.

3. There are few states like Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh which are showing improvement in sex ratio 2011.

4. Pondicherry and Kerala have the maximum number of women in India, while Daman and Diu and Haryana have the lowest sex ratio.

For more detailed analysis, the states and UTs are classified into two classes, namely above and below national gender ratio. The number of states and

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UTs with sex ratio below national average has increased from 54.29% in 1991 to 58.31% in 2011. Following table gives the distribution of states and UTs by sex ratio below national level and above national level: 1901 to 2011.

Table No. 4.12 Percentage of Number of States / UTs as per Sex Ratio

Sex Ratio Number of States /

UTs % of Population to

Total Pop.

1991 2001 2011 1991 2001 2011

Below National Average

17 17 17 54.29 57.19 58.31

Above National Average

18 18 18 45.71 42.81 41.69

Source: Census of India 2011, Series 1, India, Provisional Population Totals

Figure 4.5 Percentage of Number of States / UTs as per Sex Ratio



1. The number of states and Union Territories with gender ratio below national average has remained unchanged for the past three decades from 1991 to 2011. Only the percentage of population has changed over the period.

2. The steep decline in the sex ratio is due to UTs of Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu.

3. It must be taken into consideration that the states Haryana, Delhi, Punjab and Chandigarh which have history of consistently low sex ratio have shown appreciable increase in their gender ratio during the census year 2011.

16.416.616.8

1717.217.417.617.8

1818.2

1991 2001 2011Below National Average Above National Average

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4.7.1 Gender Composition by Rural-Urban residence at State Level:

A wide variation exists between the rural and urban gender composition in India. The following table shows the overall gender composition by rural-urban residence at state level in India.

Table No. 4.13 Overall sex ratio by residence: 2001

S.N. States / UTs Sex ratio

State Urban Rural 1 Kerala 1058 1058 1059 2 Puducherry 1001 1007 990 3 Chhattisgarh 989 932 1004 4 Tamil Nadu 987 982 992 5 Andhra Pradesh 978 965 983 6 Manipur 978 1009 967 7 Odisha 972 895 987 8 Meghalaya 972 982 969 9 Himachal Pradesh 968 795 989 10 Karnataka 965 942 977 11 Uttaranchal 962 845 1007 12 Goa 961 934 988 13 Tripura 948 959 946 14 Lakshadweep 948 935 959 15 Jharkhand 941 870 962 16 Assam 935 872 944 17 Mizoram 935 948 923 18 West Bengal 934 893 950 19 Maharashtra 922 873 960 20 Rajasthan 921 890 930 21 Gujarat 920 880 945 22 Bihar 919 868 926 23 Madhya Pradesh 919 898 927 24 Nagaland 900 829 916 25 Uttar Pradesh 989 876 904 26 Arunachal Pradesh 893 818 914 27 Jammu & Kashmir 892 819 917 28 Punjab 876 849 890

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29 Sikkim 875 830 880 30 Haryana 861 847 866 31 Andaman & Nicobar 846 815 861 32 Delhi 821 822 810 33 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 812 691 852 34 Chandigarh 777 796 621 35 Daman and Diu 710 984 586

Source: Primary census Abstract: Census of India 2001

Figure 4.6 Overall sex ratio by residence: 2001


0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Kerala

Chattisgarh

Andhra Pradesh

Odisha

Himachal Pradesh

Uttaranchal

Tripura

Jharkhand

Mizoram

Maharashtra

Gujarat

Madhya Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh

Jammu & Kashmir

Sikkim

Andaman & Nicobar

Dadra & Nagar Haveli

Daman and Deu

Urban

Rural

State

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Table No. 4.14 Overall sex ratio by residence, India, States and UTs, 2011

India/State/UTs Total Rural Urban India 940 947 926 Big States Andhra Pradesh 992 995 984 Assam 954 956 937 Bihar 916 919 891 Chattisgarh 991 1002 956 Gujarat 918 947 880 Haryana 877 880 871 Himachal Pradesh 974 988 853 Jammu and Kashmir 883 899 840 Jharkhand 947 960 908 Karnataka 968 975 957 Kerala 1084 1077 1091 Madhya Pradesh 930 936 916 Maharashtra 925 948 899 Odisha 978 988 934 Punjab 893 906 872 Rajasthan 926 932 911 Tamil Nadu 995 993 998 Uttar Pradesh 908 914 888 Uttaranchal 963 1000 883 West Bengal 947 950 939 Small States Arunachal Pradesh 920 929 889 Goa 968 997 951 Manipur 987 966 1038 Meghalaya 986 983 997 Mizoram 975 950 1000 Nagaland 932 942 905 Sikkim 889 883 908 Tripura 961 956 976 Union Territories Andaman and Nicobar 878 871 891 Chandigarh 818 691 821 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 775 863 684 Daman and Diu 618 867 550

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Delhi 866 847 867 Lakshadweep 946 954 944 Puducherry 1038 1029 1043

Source: Census of India 2011, Series1, India, and Provisional Population totals.

Figure 4.7 Overall sex ratio by residence: Big States


0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Andhra Pradesh

Assam

Bihar

Chattisgarh

Gujarat

Haryana

Himachal Pradesh

Jammu & Kashmir

Jharkhand

Karnataka

Kerala

Madhya Pradesh

Maharashtra

Odisha

Punjab

Rajasthan

Tamil Nadu

Uttar Pradesh

Uttaranchal

West Bengal

Urban Rural Total

80

Figure 4.8

Overall sex ratio by residence: Small States


800 850 900 950 1000 1050

Arunachal Pradesh

Goa

Manipur

Meghalaya

Mizoram

Nagaland

Sikkim

Tripura

Urban Rural Total

81

Figure 4.9 Overall sex ratio by residence: Union Territories



1. Of the total states and union territories in India only 8 states and union territories have shown the gender ratio more than the state level ratio in urban areas.

2. 27 states/UTs have the gender ratio less than the state level ratio. 3. The scenario in the rural area is completely different. Out of total states

and UTs, 27 have the gender ratio more than the state level and only 8 have the sex ratio less than state level.

4.7.2 Literacy and Sex Composition:

The Directive Principles of the constitution in its Article 45compelseach state of the country to provide cost-free and compulsory

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Andaman & Nicobar

Chandigarh

Dadra & Nagar Haveli

Daman & Diu

Delhi

Lakshadweep

Puducherry

Urban Rural Total

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education for all the children below the age of 14 years. The constitutional amendment, 1976 has included education in the concurrent list. In addition to this, the National Policy on Education, 1986 emphasized that new thrust in elementary education will focus on -

1. Universal access and enrolment. 2. Universal retention of children up to 14 yrs. of age. 3. A substantial improvement in the quality of education to enable all

children to achieve essential levels of learning. Literacy rate is a good indicator of development in a society.

Literacy helps in the development of essential traits such as modernization, urbanization, industrialization, communication and commerce. Without literacy the progress of society will be paralyzed. There are number of attributes of population which are affected by literacy and one among them is sex ratio. Literacy plays an important role in creating equality in the sex ratio. Various studies have found that increased literacy has led to fall in the sex ratio. This fact throws a light of critically of problem which is a harsh reality and requires a herculean task ahead.

As per the reports of NFHS – 4 (National Family Health Survey), during last 10 years, the sex ratio has decreased in 9 states of India. Surprisingly, the women’s literacy has gone up in each of these 9 states which have shown a fall in the gender ratio. The survey was conducted in 11 states and 2 UTs viz., Goa, Meghalaya, Uttaranchal, Tripura, Tamil Nadu, Sikkim, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Haryana, Bihar, West Bengal, Andaman andNicobar Islands (UT) and Puducherry (UT).

The result of the survey of NFHS – 4 are summarized below, - Table No.4.15

Findings of National Family Health Survey – 4

Particulars NFHS – 3 (2005-06) NFHS – 4 (2015-16)

Sex Ratio (Average/thousand) 1000 985

Women literacy (%) 62.50 74.70

Men Literacy (%) 79.10 86.90

Institutional Deliveries (%) 47.66 80.46

Marriages before age 18 (Females %) 36.27 23.10

Marriages before age 21 (Males %) 29.80 23.10

* The data pertains to 11 states and 2 UTs, Source: NFHS – 4

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Figure 4.10 Findings of National Family Health Survey – 3 and4



1. The average sex ratio in 2015-16 is 985 females per 1000 males compared to 1000 females per 1000 males in 2005-06. Among the states under study, sex ratio of Uttaranchal was 1015 and Meghalaya was 1005 which is high as compared to other states which have disturbing fall in the sex ratio.

2. Female literacy has improved significantly. The rate of female literacy has increased by 12.15 percent on an average which reflects better future prospective of the female population.

3. Deliveries done in institutions have risen by 32.80 percent in last decade. Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Bihar observed an increase of 54.60%, 44.80% and 43.90% respectively.

4. There has been a reduction in child marriage by 13.70% for girls and 6.70% for boys in the 11 surveyed states.

From the above survey of NFHS – 4, it has been observed that the sex ratio has gone down with the increase in rate of female literacy.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sex Ratio (%)

Women literacy (%)

Men Literacy (%)

Institutional Deliveries

(%)

Marriages before age

18 (Females %)

Marriages before age 21 (Males

%)

NFHS-3 NFHS-4

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4.8 Sex Selective Abortions in India:

The low and declining proportion of female in India’s total population is observed since the conduct of first census in the late nineteenth country. The gender ratio has steadily declined from 972 in 1901 to 933 in 2001, although there were few exceptional decades of 1971 – 81 and 1991 – 2001 when there was a slight rise in the gender ratio. While there was an increase in the gender ratio during 1991 – 2001, the CSR has declined causing the further concern. The number of girls in 6 yrs. age group per 1000 boys has declined from 945 to 927 between 1991 and 2001.

India is a country with strong son preference. There are various social, cultural and economic factors that points out the cost-benefit relation of sons and daughters and finally leads to common reason of son preferences in India are economic support, property inheritance, old age security, dowry, prestige, beliefs about religious rituals and salvation. While daughters in India are considered to be a financial liability to their parents due to heavy dowry and high cost of marriages.

The sudden fall in the number of girls in the 0 – 6 Yrs. age group has brought forward a serious problem which provides a proof of the linkages between invention of new medical technologies such as pre-natal diagnostic techniques and increased incidence of sex selective abortions or female feticide. The advancement in medical technologies has led to the misuse of sex determination technologies such as ultrasound scanning and amniocentesis that were originally designed to detect genetic abnormalities in the fetus. Presently, the technology that helps in determining the sex of a fetus is being used for a great number of female fetuses be aborted.

To add to this problem, in 1971, abortions became legal in country under the Medical Termination of Pregnancy (MTP) Act. The Act specifies the reason for which the abortions are legally allowed, who can legally allowed to do the abortion and the type of facility under which the abortion can be legally performed. As per the Act, the abortion can be performed legally if the pregnancy causes danger to the life of the women or if it affects her physical or mental health or if the child is going to be born with serious abnormalities. But, Amniocentesis and Ultrasound technology, first introduced to determine genetic abnormalities among fetuses, are now used to detect the sex of the child. This has resulted in fall in the CSR that has become a serious problem today.

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In NFHS- 2, the information about use of sex determination testes during pregnancy was collected from mothers who gave birth during the period of three-years before NFHS- 2. The SRBas per the reported cases of PNDT was 112 compared with 107 among live birth of ladies who didn’t made use of PNDT. Also the reported SRB for non PNDT cases is relatively high which indicates that some ladies may not have disclosed the use of PNDT.

The following table shows the estimates of the sex ratio as birth for the births occurring 15 Yrs. before the survey by birth order in India.

Table No. 4.16 Estimates of the sex ratio at birth for births occurring during the 15 Yrs. before

the survey, by birth order: India, NFHS – 1 and NFHS – 2

Birth Order NFHS – 1 NFHS – 2 1 1.05 1.07 2 1.07 1.08 3 1.07 1.08

4 + 1.06 1.08

Sex selective abortions are generally not practiced for first order births. Such abortions are practiced for births of higher order;the reason for this is the sex of the unborn baby becomes a matter of concern if couple is planning to stop having children soon. The above table shows that -

1. The SRB in India is higher for births of 2nd order or more as compared to the births of first order.

2. As per the data, the SRB increases from 1.05 for the first birth to 1.07 for the third birth order and then reduces to 1.06 for fourth birth order and higher.

3. During the 2nd survey, it rose marginally from 1.07 for first order births to 1.08 for second order births and higher.

SRBs by birth order clears the entire picture about women who want two children, with one child of each sex; some may go for sex selective abortion to get a baby boy, if their first child is girl, on the contrary few women may even go for sex-selective abortion to get a baby girl if the first child and the pregnancy are both boys.

The unregulated sex determination testing has been a key factor for its increased misuse. Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ART’s) are very poorly regulated in India which means the sex selection occurring through this way is seldom regulated.

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4.9 Sex ratios at Birth by Wealth Status

In India, the sex ratio at birth varies significantly by household wealth status. As per the data collected by NFHS – 3, the sex ratio at birth in 5 year preceding NFHS – 3 is highest at 954 in the lowest wealth quintile. The girl child in India is neglected as they are considered to be a financial burden on the family. Hence, it is assumed that generally low income families neglect or avoid the girl child, however the survey of NFHS – 3 has brought out some surprising result. The following chart shows the sex ratio at birth by wealth status, -

Figure 4.11 CSR of population and SRB for all births of women age 15-49 in the five years

preceding NFHS – 3 by wealth quintile.

Source: NFHS – 3, India

From the above chart, it can be seen that, -

1. The SRB is highest 954 in lowest wealth quintile.

2. The SRB to women in the second wealth quintile is within the normal range of 943 – 971.

3. Beyond the second wealth quintile, the SRB falls dramatically by wealth and has reached 854 in the highest wealth quintile.

4. The CSR also follows the similar pattern.

4.10 SRB by using Ultrasound Testing during Pregnancy:

Since last few decades a great divergence is seen in the SRB. The SRB can vary greatly only with the use of technologies such as ultrasound diagnostic testing during pregnancy. According to the report of IIPS and Macro International, 2000 in India, 24 per cent of all pregnancies in the five years

954

945 927

892

856

942

947

920

889

854

800

850

900

950

1000

Lowest Second Middle Fourth Highest

Sex Ratio of Pop. Age 0-6 yrs

Sex ratio at birth in past 5 Yrs

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preceding NFHS – 3 received an ultrasound test. The result also shows that pregnant women in the highest wealth quintile have mostly used an ultrasound test. The ratio of pregnant womenusing an ultrasound test has increased by only 4 per cent and 10 per cent for pregnancies to women in the lowest and second wealth quintile to 21 per cent and 38 per cent for pregnancies in the next two quintiles and finally to 62 per cent in the highest wealth quintile. While a maximum number of ultrasound tests are done for the purpose of diagnosis, a study of SRB can help to find out the extent of use of ultrasound testing for the purpose of sex-selective abortions.

The following table shows the SRB estimated for both- the pregnancies with ultrasound testing and the pregnancies without ultrasound testing which provides clear picture that number of women is making use of ultrasound tests for the purpose of sex selection in the country.

Table No. 4.17 Sex Ratios of completed pregnancies in the five years preceding NFHS – 3 with

and without an ultrasound test by Wealth quintile, NFHS – 3, India Wealth Quintile Ultrasound test during

pregnancy No ultrasound test during pregnancy

Lowest 859 955 Second 881 954 Middle 905 923 Fourth 854 911 Highest 818 935

Source: NFHS – 3; India


1. SRB by using ultrasound test at the time of pregnancy is 851, whereas SRB without using ultrasound test is 941. Hence, the SRB in case of pregnancies using an ultrasound test is less than biologically natural ratio.

2. The lower SRB at each level of wealth quintile shows that the ultrasound tests are commonly used for purpose of gender selection at all the quintile of wealth.

3. SRB by using ultrasound test in the highest wealth quintile is 818 which is much lower than for pregnancies of women using ultrasound test in lowest, second, middle and fourth wealth quintile. This proves that women belonging to the highest wealth quintile mostly use ultrasound tests for gender selection than the women belonging to lower income group.

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4.11 Government Response

Indian government opposes the practice of female infanticide and sex selective abortions, but the effort of govt. to bring about reform has been slow and ineffective. Approximately a decade before sex determination, in 1961, the Dowry Prohibition Act was passed. It was revised in 1983 and 1985, but despite of the revisions, this law has not been properly enforced.

Due to pressurization from females, the GoI restricted prenatal sex determination testing in government hospitals. This measure instead of having a positive impact came out with a negative impact. This encouraged the multiplication of private sex check clinics. The number of clinics started competing which proved useful and more affordable for Indians belonging to lower middle class.

In 1988, the GoI formed a committee to study sex selective abortions. The Prenatal Diagnostic Techniques Regulations and Prevention of Misuse Bill was introduced by the committee in 1991. The law covers all the clinics, hospitals and laboratories offering prenatal testing. “The bill has same features as that of Maharashtra Regulation of Prenatal Diagnostic Techniques Act, 1988 which are as follows -

1. Prenatal Diagnostics can only be conducted to detect genetic abnormalities (including sex linked genetic diseases)

2. The test may only be undertaken by a high risk pregnant women who meet at least one of the following criteria, - a. Age over 35 years b. History of 2 or more abortions c. History of exposure to hazardous substances d. Family history of genetic disorder e. Any other conditions as specified by the authorities.

3. Use of prenatal diagnostic technologies for indicating the sex of the foetus is banned. Offences are punishable by both imprisonment and a fine.”2

Enforcement of ban on sex determination techniques is a very difficult task. Also to tackle the demand side, the government efforts also include

marking the National Girl Child Day declared on 24th January, 2009 which included putting up billboards of ‘Love the girl Child’, ‘Beti Bachao’, ‘Stop Killing girls’ and included cash transfer schemes to provide incentive for the birth of girls as both the center and the state level. Few cash transfer schemes are Dhan Lakshmi, Betihai Anmol, kanyadan and others. Most of these cash transfer schemes promised relatively small amounts at maturity and have put fourth

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several conditions such as immunization, school enrolment, institutional delivery, sterilization etc.- Few of these schemes promise to give cash amounts at the age of 18 (for dowry) and are mainly aimed at poor or BPL families. The schemes sound good but the big problem with these schemes is that they targeted largely at poor families.

However, it must be borne in mind that gender imbalance is not a poor or BPL phenomenon only. Even the families with highest wealth quintile are involved in sex selective abortion. Small cash amounts provided by these schemes hardly make any difference to families who have resources to pay for the sex selective technology. On this issue, the policymakers (who are generally habituated to target the poor or BPL) need to bravely enter the unfamiliar terrain of targeting ‘not-so-poor, families.

4.12 Conclusion

In this chapter, the researcher had analyzed the demographic transition of Indian population. The gender imbalance of India is also studied in this chapter. Sex ratio of the population affects the growth or in the development of the country. Hence, various aspects related with sex ratio such as birth rates, death rates, use of ultrasound technology, sex-selective abortions are studied in depth. The chapter also highlights various measures taken by government both Central and State level to improve the sex ratio of the country.

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References

1. Edger Thorpe, Showich Thorpe (2009), The Pearson General Study Manual, Pearson Education India, Delhi, P. 4.12

2. Kusum 1993,“Female feticide – a sociological perspective” journal of family Welfare, 39 (1)

3. US Census Bureau Website

4. Primary Census Abstract, Census of India, 2001 & 2011

5. Davis (1951); India, Registrar general (1954), Jain (1982); Office of registrar General, Sample Bulletin (various issue)

6. www. Populationcommission.nic.in

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