1

Director’s Updateof the

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

COPC Meeting

Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanographic Center Monterey, CA

November 5, 2003

Dr. Louis Uccellini

NCEP Director

“Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

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Overview

• Status of Computer and Models

• Recent Advancements• Hurricanes• Climate Models

• WRF

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Status of IBM Supercomputer and Models

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Computing Capability

Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)

$20M/Year $20M/Year InvestmentInvestment

•Receives Over 116 Million Global Observations Daily•Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec•Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)

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NCEP Operational ModelsEta

12 km, 60 levels, 84 hrs at 0 , 6, 12 and 18Z

Global Forecast System (GFS)

T254 (~55 km) to 3.5 days (84 hrs), 64 levels

T170 (~75 km) to 7.5 days (180 hrs), 42 levels

T126 (~105 km) to 16 days (384 hrs), 28 levels

16 days (384 hrs)/4 times per day

RUC

20 km, 50 levels

12 hrs at 0,3,6,9,12,15,18,21Z

3 hrs at 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14, 16,17,19,20,22,23Z

Climate

T62 (~200 km), 28 levels, 7 months (20 members)

Ensembles

global 10 members at 0 and 12Z

T126 (~105 km) to 84 hrs, T62 (210 km) to 384 hrs

28 levels, 16 days (384 hrs)

regional 10 members at 0 and 12Z

48 km, 45 levels, 63 hrs from 9 and 21Z

Wave Model

global - 1.25 x 1.0 deg lat/lon

Alaskan Regional - .5 x .25 deg lat/lon

Western North Atlantic - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon

Eastern North Pacific - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon

1 level, 168 hrs/4 times per day

North Atlantic Hurricane (seasonal)

North Pacific Hurricane (seasonal)

.25 x .25 deg lat/lon

1 level

78 hours/4 times per day

GFDL Hurricane Model

coupled ocean-atmosphere

Two nests (0.5, 1/6 deg lat/lon)

42 levels

126 hrs at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z

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Tiling for Higher Resolution Applications

• 6 High Resolution

(all 8 km except 10 km Alaska) Window nested runs - once per day to 48 hours

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Tiling for Higher Resolution Applications

• Fire weather runs – 8

km NMM runs on demand in one of 26 areas of coverage, each about 900 km square up to 4/day

• Dispersion models run on demand using 4 km NMM for Homeland Security

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Recent Advancements: Hurricanes

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TPC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

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Hurricane Claudette5-Day Hurricane Forecast

Radar 10:45 AMJuly 15, 2003

Error (nm) 12 h 24 h 36 h 48 h 72 h 96 h 120 h

OFCL 35 57 84 112 128 135 147

GFDL 32 56 88 121 163 233 273

GFS 38 66 93 121 193 218 301

# of cases 25 24 22 19 14 8 8

Hurricane Isabel

Thursday, 9/18/0312 PM EDT5-day forecast

3-day forecast

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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Forecast Period (hours)

0

100

200

300

400

500

Err

or

(nau

tica

l mile

s)

1964-1973

1984-1993

1974-1983

1994-2002

Isabelprelim.

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• New model design with emphasis on transparency, vectorization and parallelization (plug compatible, portable).

• More general governing transport equation, allowing for later full coupling with ocean models.

• Improved propagation schemes (third order).• Improved physics integration scheme (follows small

time scale evolution more closely, yet more economical than conventional schemes).

• Improved physics of wave growth and decay.

WAVEWATCH III

new model required

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WAVEWATCH III

• Run by Navy and NCEP

• Runs from global and GFDL hurricane models

• Very successful for recent hurricanes

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Isabel 18/9/2003, 12 UTCnowcast

48h forecast24h forecast

12h forecast

Intensity and location of forecast waves consistent and confirmed by altimeter and buoy observations. At 48h forecast lower wave heights due to earlier landfall.

wave height 50+ ft (45+ ft)

Isabel at Field Research Facility Duck NC

pictures from US Army Corps Of Engineers Field Research Facility webcam

9/18 14:00 EDT 9/29 14:00 EDT

Maximum observed wave height at the end of the pier 26.6ft, which is roughly the maximum sustainable wave height for the local water depth. Wave height 2 miles offshore reported up to 49 ft.

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Recent Advancements: Climate Model

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Climate Model

• Current operational climate model– 200 km, 28 levels, runs to 7 months each month– Linked to SSTs in Pacific basin only

• Improved operational climate model– Fully coupled ocean-atmosphere system

• NCEP operational Global Forecast System (GFS) atmospheric model

– 200 km resolution, 64 levels, model top 0.2 mb

• MOM3 ocean model (GFDL)– 100 km resolution, 40 levels, 30 km between 10 deg N and 10 deg S– Global; between 65 deg N and 75 deg S– Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS)

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Coupled Model Simulation ENSO SST cycles

Nino 3.4 SSTAnomalies

Simulated 2002-2040 (top)

Observed 1965-2003(bottom)

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Coupled Model Simulation SST Interannual Variability

Observed

64 Level Atm

28 Level Atm

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Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model(D/M/I) Prime Contractors: NOAADirector: Louis W. Uccellini

PM: Stephen J. Lord

Performance Parameters

Stephen Lord/W/NP2/September 30, 2003

G

Key Issues/Risks Y Budget/Funding ($M FY04 PB)

Schedule (FY)

Program Is Executable

Y

G

NP-3

Baseline MilestoneTask Completion Task

Risk

•  Inadequate funding for transition to operations adds risk to implementing model improvements twice as fast as today (from 12 mos to the 6 mos threshold in the above quadrant).

Threshold Actual VarianceA multi-agency effort to provide acommunity weather prediction modelfor both operaitonal and research use. Reduce the time to implementoperational model improvements 6 mo 12 mo Reduce the amount of operational 37000 107000source lines of code maintained

High Resolution Window 22000 22000 Meso-scale model 2000 3000

Rapid Update Cycle 8000 22000Hurricane model 4000 40000

Regional ensembles 1000 20000Use WRF configurations for allNCEP mesoscale model production 4FY06

Cost $9.88MSchedule 84 mo

Prior Years FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 Total

NWS Base 0.41 0.60 0.67 0.78 0.92 1.23 4.61

Soft Money 1.03 0.73 0.77 0.83 0.91 1.00 5.27

PROJECTED COSTS 1.44 1.33 1.44 1.61 1.83 2.23 9.88

Program Mgt 0.13 0.17 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.14 0.71

Development 1.10 1.04 1.24 1.40 1.63 1.97 8.38

Assimilation 0.13 0.39 0.40 0.45 0.63 0.71 2.71

Dynamic Core 0.70 0.39 0.40 0.20 0.20 0.20 2.09

Physics 0.17 0.20 0.30 0.60 0.60 0.73 2.60

Validation 0.10 0.06 0.14 0.15 0.20 0.33 0.95

Operational Transition 0.21 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.81

Total 1.44 1.33 1.44 1.61 1.83 2.23 9.88