DJF rapport 20 - AU Purepure.au.dk/portal/files/458462/djfm62.pdfDJF rapport Markbrug nr. 62 • januar 2002 Udgivelse: Danmarks JordbrugsForskning Tlf. 89 99 19 00 Forskningscenter

DJFrapportJanuar 2002 Nr. 62 • Markbrug

Landsberegninger af kvælstofudvaskningenfra landbruget med SKEP/DAISY og SIM IIIBmodellerne

Christen Duus Børgesen & Tove Heidmann

Christen Duus Børgesen & Tove HeidmannAfdeling for JordbrugssystemerPostboks 50DK-8830 Tjele

Landsberegninger af kvælstofudvaskningenfra landbruget med SKEP/DAISY og SIM IIIBmodellerne

DJF rapport Markbrug nr. 62 • januar 2002

Udgivelse: Danmarks JordbrugsForskning Tlf. 89 99 19 00Forskningscenter Foulum Fax 89 99 19 19Postboks 508830 Tjele

Løssalg: t.o.m. 50 sider 50,- kr.(incl. moms) t.o.m. 100 sider 75,- kr.

over 100 sider 100,- kr.

Abonnement: Afhænger af antallet af tilsendte rapporter,men svarer til 75% af løssalgsprisen.

Indholdsfortegnelse!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"#$%

Resumé &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& '

Summary &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& (

1. Indledning &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& )

2. Materialer og metoder! &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& *

+&,!-.%/0#12!3.%/!43$%56%/%17#71%/7% &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& *

+&+!8/97$5:11%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/!$%/!;7.%7$%0!#!"<=>!43$%50?02%4%2&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,@+&+&,!":$0A#B2%/ &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,@+&+&+!8C$7#710D5;7%/&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,++&+&E!F3/$2?D%/ &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,E+&+&G!<5#4; &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,E+&+&'!H;7$#71 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,G+&+&(!IJK"LM43$%55%7&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,G+&+&)!I;2;6;0%&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,'

+&E!"<=>M43$%50?02%4%2&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,'+&E&,!N%$/#B20M!31!4;/A3D5?07#71%/ &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,'+&E&+!N%/%17#71%/!4%$!"<=>!43$%50?02%4%2 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,'+&E&E!<;5#6/%/#71!;B!9$6?22%2!#!"<=>!43$%50?02%4%2 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,(

+&G!J7.%7$%50%!;B!"<=>!43$%50?02%4%2!31!"KO!KKKN!#!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!6%/%17#71%/ &&&& ,)+&G&,!K7$1;710$;2; &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,)+&G&+!-D02#55#71!;B!0:$0A#B2%/!#!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!6%/%17#71%/ &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,)+&G&E!-D02#55#71!;B!1C$7#710D5;7%/!#!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!6%/%17#71%/ &&&&&&&&&&&&& ,P+&G&G!J7.%7$%50%7!;B!$%!3D02#55%$%!0:$0A#B2%/!31!QM1C$7#710D5;7%/!#!!!!!!!!!"<=>!6%/%17#71%/7%&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,P+&G&'!<5#4;34/R$%/&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,P+&G&(!F3/$2?D%/ &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& +,+&G&)!S#5D;07#71!;B!9$6?22%2!#!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!6%/%17#71%/&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& +++&G&*!<5#4;73/4;5#0%/#71!;B!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& +E+&G&P!"KO!KKKN!43$%55%7&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& +'+&G&,@!T;7$0$:AA%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/!4%$!"KO!KKKN &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& +(

+&'!N%/%17#71%/!;B!A.:5023B9$.;0A7#71%7!DR!5;7$0D5;7!B3/!0U%7;/#%/!B3/!9$.;512%!R/&&&& +(+&'&,!"U%7;/#%/ &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& +(+&'&+!K7$1;710$;2;!2#5!3D02#55#71!;B!0:$0A#B2%/ &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& +)+&'&E!K7$1;710$;2;!2#5!3D02#55#71!;B!1C$7#710D5;7%/ &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& +*

3. Resultater af modelberegninger af kvælstofudvaskning på landsplan &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& E+

E&,!S32;5!A.:5023B9$.;0A7#71 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& E+E&+!V%$9A2#37%7!#!A.:5023B9$.;0A7#71&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& EE

4. Diskussion &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& E'

G&,!O3$%55%/ &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& E'G&,&,!"KO!KKKN!43$%55%7&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& E'G&,&+!"<=>WIJK"L!43$%55%7 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& E(

G&+!T;7$0$:AA%7$%!0U%7;/#%6%/%17#71%/&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& E(G&+&,!T;7$0$:AA%7$%!0U%7;/#%6%/%17#71%/!31!6%/%17#71%/!#!!!!!!!!!T-->M34/R$%/7% &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& E)G&+&+!<5#4;73/4;5#0%/#71!;B!"KO!KKKN!6%/%17#71%/7%&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& E*

G&E!T;7$06%/%17#71%/!#!/%5;2#37!2#5!H;7$4#5XCD5;7!KK!%.;59%/#71%7 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& EP

5. Konklusion &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& G+!!!!!

6. Referencer &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& GE!!!!!

Bilag 1 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& G(!!!!!

Bilag 2 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& GP

'

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*

2. Materialer og metoder

2.1 Oversigt over modelberegningerne"<=>!%/!%2!43$%50?02%4Z!$%/!6%/%17%/!2C/023B9$6?22%Z!.;7$6;5;7U%!31!QM6;5;7U%Z!^%/97$%/!QM9$.;0A7#71!DR!4;/A7#.%;9!9$!B/;!$;2;!34!X3/$2?D%Z!A5#4;]37%Z!4%2%3/3531#0A%!$;2;!B3/!$%2DR1:5$%7$%!R/Z!0:$0A#B2%!31!QM1C$0A7#71&!"<=>M6%/%17#71%/7%!6;0%/%0!DR!1/97$5:11%7$%/%0952;2%/!6%/%17%2!4%$!$%7!$%2%/4#7#02#0A%!0#495%/#71043$%5!IJK"L!Ya;70%7!%2!;5&Z!,PP,[&O3$%50?02%4%2!;7.%7$%/!%7!$;2;6;0%!4%$!0#495%/#710/%0952;2%/!B3/!%7!/:AA%!A346#7;2#37%/;B!B3/B/912Z!;B1/C$%/Z!%B2%/BC51%7$%!;B1/C$%Z!X3/$2?D%Z!.;7$#71Z!A5#4;!31!QM1C$0A7#71&!V%095M2;2%/7%!6%/%17%2!4%$!"<=>!.#5!^%/%B2%/!6%7:.7%0!"<=>WIJK"L!/%0952;2%/&

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Areal og dyretæthedpå bedriftstype i

kommune

Afgrødefordeling ogdyretæthed i

kommune

Afgrødefordelingsmodul

Dyretæthed og sædskifte opdelt på sand- oglerjord på bedriftstyperne i kommunen

N-gødsknings modulN-forbrug iamtet

N-gødskningpraksis i amtet

Sædskifter med tilhørendegødningsplaner

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Jordtyper ikommune

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Data for udbytter i amtet

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Figur 2&!-.%/0#12!3.%/!A346#7;2#370495#1^%$%/!#!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/!$%/#7$1R/!034!1/97$5;1!B3/!"<=>!43$%56%/%17#71%/7%&!K7$1;710$;2;!34B;22%/!0:$0A#B2%Z!Q1C$0A7#71Z!X3/$2?D%Z!A5#4;!R/!31!A5#4;]37%&

2.2.1 Sædskifter

I%/!%/!3D02#55%2!,*!B#/%R/#1%!0:$0A#B2%/Z!034!.#02!#!2;6%5!,&!I;!0:$0A#B2%2!#7$1R/!B5%/%!1;71%!#0%A.%70!#!43$%56%/%17#71%/7%Z!%/!;B1/C$%7!#!R/!E!B3/B/912!B3/!;B1/C$%7!R/!GZ!31!;B1/C$%7!#!R/!,%/!%B2%/BC51%7$%!;B1/C$%!B3/!;B1/C$%7!#!R/!G!30.&!a.%/!;B1/C$%!^;/!%7!2/%R/#1!#7#2#;5#0%/#710D%/#M3$%&

,,

Tabel 1&!\#/%R/#1%!0:$0A#B2%/!;7.%7$2!#!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/&!":$0A#B2%/7%!%/;71#.%2!#!/:AA%/& >5;72%;.500:$0A#B2%/!%/!43$%56%/%17%2!034!0.#7%6/9100:$0A#B2%/!9$%7!^90M$?/1C$7#71&

":$0A#B2% f/!, f/!+ f/!E f/!G

<.:1!, Vårbyg helsæd m. rajgræs udlæg Rajgræs slet Rajgræs slet Vinterhvede

<.:1!+ Ærter helsæd m. Kløverudlæg Kløvergræs slet Kløvergræs slet Vinterhvede

<.:1!E Foderroer Vårbyg Ærter Vinterhvede

<.:1!G Vårbyg Vinterbyg Vinter raps Vinterhvede

<.:1!' H%$.&!V;X1/:0 H%$.&!V;X1/:0 H%$.&!V;X1/:0 Vedv.Rajgræs

<.:1!' Vårbyg helsæd m. Kløverudlæg Kløvergræs afgræsning Kløvergræs afgræsning H#72%/^.%$%

<.:1!( Vårbyg helsæd m. Rajgræs udlæg Rajgræs afgræsning Rajgræs afgræsning H#72%/^.%$%

<.:1!) Ærter helsæd m. Kløverudlæg Kløvergræs afgræsning Kløvergræs afgræsning H#72%/^.%$%

<.:1!* Ærter helsæd m. Rajgræs udlæg Rajgræs afgræsning Rajgræs afgræsning H#72%/^.%$%

".#7!, Vårbyg med Rajgræs udlæg Rajgræs frø Vinterhvede Vinterhvede

".#7!+ Vinterbyg Vinterraps Vinterhvede HR/6?1

".#7!E HR/6?1 Ærter Vinterhvede HR/6?1

".#7!G Vårbyg H#72%//;D0 H#72%/^.%$% Sukkerroer

".#7!' Vårbyg g/2%/ HR/6?1 Kartofler

".#7!( HR/6?1 g/2%/ HR/6?1 Vårbyg

".#7!) H#72%/6?1 H#72%//;D0 H#72%/^.%$% HR/6?1

,!R/#1!6/;A H#72%/!^.%$% H#72%/!^.%$% Vårbyg med rajgræs udlæg Gr. Brak

\5%/R/#16/;A

8/&!N/;A 8/&!N/;A 8/&!N/;A Gr. Brak

-D1C/%50%0D%/#3$%7!B3/!;B1/C$%/7%!#!0:$0A#B2%2!BC51%/!$%2!;1/3^?$/3531#0A%!R/Z!$%/!1R/!B/;!$&,&G!2#5!$&!E,&E!$%2!%B2%/BC51%7$%!R/&!K!B#19/!E!%/!.#02!%A0%4D5%/!DR!;B1/C$%/7%0!.:A02D%/#3$%!#!230:$0A#B2%/&!-D1C/%50%0D%/#3$%7!B3/!^.%/!;B1/C$%!%/!;B1/:70%2!;B!53$/%22%!02#D5%$%!5#7#%/&!I%2B/%41R/Z!;2!;B1/C$%/7%0!.:A02D%/#3$%!A;7!02/:AA%!0#1!3.%/!B5%/%!3D1C/%50%0D%/#3$%/&!=A0%4MD%5.#0!02;/2%/!.#72%/^.%$%7!0#7!.:A02D%/#3$%!#!0:$0A#B2%2!A.:1!E!%B2%/!34D5CX7#71!;B!:/2%/7%!#R/!E!31!^C02%0!#!R/!G&!I%7!%B2%/BC51%7$%!;B1/C$%!YB3$%//3%/[!0R0!BC/02!#!$%2!%B2%/BC51%7$%!R/&

,+

f/ , f/ + f/ !E f/ !G

":$0A#B2%".#7 !E

HR/6?1H#72%//;D0

H#72%/!^.%$%

"9AA%//3%/

":$0A#B2<.:1 !E

\3$%/!/3%/ HR/6?1 g/2%/

H#72%/

!^.%$%

aC02"R

-D1C/%50%0D%/#3$%/

JB1/C$%!.:A02D%/#3$%

,&G!!!!!År 1. ,&G År 2. ,&G!!!!!År 3. ,&G År4. ,&G

Figur 3&!-D1C/%50%0D%/#3$%/!31!;B1/C$%/7%0!.:A02D%/#3$%/!B3/!23!0:$0A#B2%/!Y0.#7!E!31!A.:1E[&

"<=>!;7.%7$%/!/%0952;2%/!B3/!%2!;B!$%!B#/%!R/!#!0:$0A#B2%2!#!6%/%17#71%/7%&!V%0952;2%2!B3/!R/%29$.:51%0!DR!6;11/97$!A346#7;2#37%7!;B!A5;00%.;/#;65%/7%h!;B1/C$%Z!B3/B/912Z!%B2%/BC51%7$%;B1/C$%&!\3/4R5%2!4%$!3D02#55#71%7!;B!0:$0A#B2%/7%!%/Z!;2!/%0952;2%/7%!B3/!%7!1#.%7!;B1/C$%DR.#/A%0!;B!6R$%!$%!;B1/C$%/!31!$%7!Q!1C$0A7#71!$%/!#7$1R/!#!$?/A7#710^#023/#%7Z!31!;B!^.3/M5%$%0!4;/A%7!$?/A%0!#!$%7!%B2%/BC51%7$%!%B2%/R/0M!31!.#72%/D%/#3$%&

K!6%/%17#71%/7%!B3/!B5%/R/#1!6/;A!;7.%7$%0!%7!*!R/0!#7#2#;5#0%/#710D%/#3$%Z!^.3/!0:$0A#B2%2!^;/5#11%2!034!6/;A&!=7R/#1!6/;A!%/!43$%56%/%17%2!034!$%!C./#1%!;B1/C$%/!4%$!%7!E!R/0!#7#2#;5#0%M/#710D%/#3$%Z!^.3/!$%/!2#5BC/%0!QM1C$7#7104:71$%/!%B2%/!73/4%7&

2.2.2 Gødningsplaner

I%/!%/!3D02#55%2!#!;52!E@!1C$7#710D5;7%/!2#5!^.%/!;B1/C$%&!8C$7#710D5;7%/7%!%/!2#5D;00%2!B3/0A%5M5#1%!$?/%2:2^%$%/!31!QM1C$7#7107#.%;9%/&!I%/!%/!;7.%7$2!B3/0A%55#1!9$6/#717#710D/;A0#0!B3/^90$?/1C$7#71!YB3/R/0MW%B2%/R/09$6/#717#71[!B3/!9$.;512%!;B1/C$%/&

8C$7#710D5;7%/7%!$:AA%/!QM1C$0A7#71!.%$!^%7^35$0.#0!'@Z!)@Z!P@!,@@Z!,,@Z!,E@!31!,'@i!;B;B1/C$%/7%0!73/40;22%!QM6%^3.&!I%!;B1/C$%0D%U#B#AA%!QM73/4%/!%/!.#02!#!6#5;1!,Z!2;6%5!+&":$0A#B2%/7%!1C$%0!%72%7!4%$ ^;7$%501C$7#71!%55%/!^90$?/1C$7#71!%55%/!A346#7%/%2 ^;7$%50M31!^90$?/1C$7#71&

8C$7#710D5;7%/7%!%/!$%52!3D!#!B%4!1/9DD%/Z!^.3/!$%/!#7$%7!B3/!^.%/!1/9DD%!;7.%7$%0!0;44%^90$?/1C$7#7104:71$%Z!4%7!B3/0A%55#1!4:71$%!^;7$%501C$7#71!;B^:71#1!;B QM1C$7#710M7#.%;9%2&!a90$?/1C$7#7102#5$%5#71%/7%!#!$%!B%4!1/9DD%/!0.;/%/!2#5Z!;2!^%7^35$0.#0!@Z!+'Z!'@Z!)'

,E

31!,@@i!;B!;B1/C$%70!73/40;22%!QM6%^3.!$:AA%0!4%$!^90$?/1C$7#71&!I%/!09DD5%/%0!4%$^;7$%501C$7#71!#!^.%/!1C$7#710D5;7!3D!2#5!$%!0?.!QM1C$7#7107#.%;9%/!Y'@Z!)@Z!P@Z!,@@Z!,,@Z,E@!31!,'@i[&!K!$%!2#5B:5$%Z!^.3/!^%7^35$0.#0!)'!31!,@@i!;B!;B1/C$%70!73/40;22%!QM6%^3.$:AA%0!4%$!^90$?/1C$7#71Z!%/!$%/!#AA%!1%77%4BC/2!6%/%17#71%/!.%$!5;.%/%!QM1C$7#710M7#.%;9%/Z!$;!$%7!;7.%7$2%!^90$?/1C$7#7104:71$%!;71#.%/!$%2!5;.%02%!495#1%!QM1C$7#710M7#.%;9!B3/!1/9DD%7&!I%2!;72;1%0Z!;2!B3/B/912%7!1C$%0!.%$!0;44%!/%5;2#.%!Q!1C$7#7107#.%;9034!$%7!;A29%55%!;B1/C$%&!JB1/C$%/7%!#!0:$0A#B2%2!2#5$%5%0 034!1%77%407#2!0;44%!^90$?/1C$M7#7104:71$%!034!$%7!;A29%55%!;B1/C$%&!a%/.%$!;B0D%X5%0!$%7!5;71.;/#1%!%BB%A2!;B!^90$?/1C$M7#7107#.%;9%2!#!0:$0A#B2%2&!I%09$%7!#7$1R/!$%2!;A29%55%!R/5#1%!QM1C$7#7107#.%;9!#"<=>WIJK"L!6%/%17#71%/7%&

I%/!;7.%7$%0!^%7^35$0.#0!A.:1M!31!0.#7%1?55%!034!^90$?/1C$7#71!#!$%!/%0D%A2#.%!A.:1M!310.#7%6/9100:$0A#B2%/&!I%!;7.%7$2%!1?55%2?D%/0!0;44%70:27#71!Y2C/023BMZ!`M!31!QM!31!;443M7#94#7$^35$[!%/!.#02!#!6#5;1!,!2;6%5!,&!I%7!B3/.%72%$%!D5;72%9$7?22%50%!;B!Q!2#5BC/2!4%$!^90M$?/1C$7#71!6%/%17%0!9$!B/;!9$7?22%50%0D/3U%72%/&!I%7!09DD5%/%7$%!^;7$%501C$7#71!6%/%17%0.%$!;2!2/:AA%!$%7!B3/.%72%$%!9$7?22%$%!QM4:71$%!B/;!;B1/C$%70!QM73/4&!\3/R/09$6/;12!^90M$?/1C$7#71!BC51%/!A/;.%7%!B/;!,PP)!4%$!%7!9$7?22%50%!DR!^%7^35$0.#0!G'i!31!'@i!B3/!A.:1M31!0.#7%1?55%!31!4%$!%7!;7$%2!R/0!%BB%A2!DR!,@i&!\3/!%B2%/R/09$6/;12!^90$?/1C$7#71!;7.%7$%0%7!9$7?22%50%0D/3U%72!DR!+'i&

<97!%2!;B!$%!B#/%!R/!#!0:$0A#B2%2!#7$1R/!#!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%!/%0952;2%/Z!4%70!$%!2/%!C./#1%!R/!#0:$0A#B2%2!6/91%0!2#5!;2!#7#2#;5#0%/%!X3/$%70!3/1;7#0A%!31!93/1;7#0A%!QM#7$^35$&!a90$?/1C$7#7M1%7!9$6/#71%0!#!$%!B5%02%!0:$0A#B2%/!34!B3/R/%2!Y;D/#5M4;X[&!\3/!B#/%!;B1/C$%/h!B3$%//3%/Z!.#72%/M^.%$%Z!/;X1/:0!31!.#72%//;D0!%/!$%/!310R!3D02#55%2!1C$7#710D5;7%/Z!^.3/!^90$?/1C$7#71%7!2#5BCM/%0!34!%B2%/R/%2&

2.2.3 Jordtyper

\#/%!X3/$2?D%/!FN,Z!FNEZ!FNG!31!FN(!%/!;7.%7$2!#!43$%56%/%17#71%/7%&!H;7$/%2%72#37Z!^?M$/;95#0A!5%$7#710%.7%!31!#7$^35$!;B!5%/!31!3/1;7#0A!023B!B3/!$%!B#/%!X3/$2?D%/!%/!.#02!#!6#5;1!,!#NC/1%0%7!%2!;5&!Y,PP)[&!V3$]37%A;D;U#2%2%7!31!$%7!4;A0#4;5%!%BB%A2#.%!/3$$?6$%!%/!.#02!#2;6%5!+&H#00%!;B1/C$%/!^;/!$31!%7!4#7$/%!/3$$?6$%!e!%A0%4D%5.#0!1/:0!31!:/2%/&!I%7!4;A0#M4;5%!%BB%A2#.%!/3$$?6$%!BC51%/!2?D#0A%!.:/$#%/!B3/!$#00%!X3/$2?D%/!97$%/!$;70A%!A5#4;B3/^35$YO;$0%7Z!,P**[&

Tabel 2&!V3$]37%A;D;U#2%2!31!4;A0#4;5%!/3$$?6$%/!B3/!B#/%!X3/$2?D%/

F3/$2?D%/ FN, FNE FNG FN(

V3$]37%!A;D;U#2%2 )P!44 ,G)!44 ,(+!44 +@'!44

O;A0#4;5!/3$$?6$% (@!U4 )@!U4 *@!U4 ,@@!U4

2.2.4 Klima

O3$%56%/%17#71%/7%!%/!1%77%4BC/2!4%$!(!4%2%3/3531#0A%!$;2;0:2!4R52!.%$!A5#4;02;2#37%/7%S?502/9DZ!j$94Z!N3//#0Z!F?7$%.;$Z!f/05%.!31!V30A#5$%&!<5#4;%2!%/!4R52!B/;!^%7^35$0.#0!$&,&G&,PP(!2#5!$&!E,&E&,PP)!31!$&!,&G&,PP)!2#5!$&!E,&E&,PP*&!I%!2/%!B3/9$1R%7$%!R/0!A5#4;$;2;Z^%7^35$0.#0!,&G&,PPE&&E,&E&,PP(!31!,&G&,PPG&&E,&E&,PP)Z!;7.%7$%0!B3/!$%!2/%!B3/9$1R%7$%;B1/C$%/&!I%7!R/5#1%!7%$6C/!%/!.#02!#!2;6%5!E&!8%7%/%52!%/!7%$6C/04:71$%/7%!5;.%/%!%7$!73/M

,G

4;57%$6C/%7!Y,P(,M,P*@[Z!4%7!#0:/!.;/!,PP(WP)!%2!B3/^35$0.#0!2C/2!R/&!>32%72#%5!B3/$;4D7#71%/!6%/%17%2!#BC51%!O;AA#7A!Y,P')[!31!a;70%7!Y,P*G[&

Tabel 3&!f/5#1!7%$6C/!.%$!0%A0!A5#4;02;2#37%/&!Q%$6C/%7!%/!A3//#1%/%2!2#5!X3/$3.%/B5;$%7!9$B/;!J55%/9D!k!O;$0%7!Y,P*([&

<5#4;!02;2#37 S?502/9D j$94 N3//#0 F?7$%.;$ f/05%. V30A#5$%

Q%$6C/,PP(W,PP) (E@!44 (,+!44 ),(!44 )@,!44 'G,!44 '*P!44

Q%$6C/,PP)W,PP*

)@@!44 )EG!44 PG@!44 P@P!44 ('*!44 (P(!44

Q%$6C/!73/4;5,P(,M,PP@

))E!44 )E@!44 P*@!44 PPG!44 )+,!44 ()*!44

2.2.5 Vanding

O3$%56%/%17#71%/7%!B3/!X3/$2?D%/7%!FN,!31!FNE!%/!1%77%4BC/2!4%$!31!9$%7!.;7$#71&!H;7M$#71!A;7!B3/%2;1%0!;9234;2#0A!#!IJK"L!43$%55%7Z!7R/!X3/$.;7$097$%/0A9$$%2!Y7%$6C/!4#790D32%72#%5!B3/$;4D7#71[!3.%/0A/#$%/!%7!;B1/C$%0D%U#B#A!X3/$.;7$0$%B#U#2&!I%77%!4%23$%!%/!;7M.%7$2Z!#$%2!$%/!%/!2#5BC/2!E@!44!D%/!.;7$#71&!\3/0A%55#1%!;B1/C$%0D%U#B#AA%!$%B#U#20!%/!.#02!#2;6%5!G!B3/!%7!X3/$2?D%!4%$!%7!/3$]37%A;D;U#2%2!DR!,@@!44&!I%2;5X%/%$%!3D5?07#71%/!34!.;7M$#71043$95%2!#!IJK"L!B#7$%0!#!a;70%7!%2!;5&!Y,PP@[&!I%2!0A;5!6%4:/A%0Z!;2!.;7$#71002/;2%1#M%7!%/!$%7!0;44%!B3/!$%!23!0;7$X3/$%!31!#AA%!B95$!3D2#4;5!B3/!FN,!X3/$%7Z!$;!$%77%0!/3$]37%MA;D;U#2%2!%/!4#7$/%!%7$!,@@!44&!I%7!.;512%!.;7$#71002/;2%1#!^;/!$31!#AA%!4%$BC/2!6%2?$%5#14#0.:A02!B3/!$%7!.;7$%$%!FN,!X3/$!#!6%/%17#71%/7%&

Tabel 4&!JB1/C$%0D%U#B#AA%!X3/$.;7$0$%B#U#20!;7.%7$2!.%$!.;7$#71!#!43$%56%/%17#71%/7%Y%B2%/!>5;963/1!k!-5%0%7Z!,PP,[&

8/:0 N%$%M/3%/

g/2%/ <;/M23B5%/

HR/6?1 H#72%/N?1

H#72%//;D0

H#72%/a.%$%

I%B#U#2l44m

'@ )@ (' E' '@ (@ (' ('

2.2.6 DAISY-modellen

F3/$M>5;72%MJ2430B:/%M<.:5023B!43$%55%7!IJK"L!Ya;70%7!%2!;5&Z!,PP,[!%/!6/912!2#5!6%/%1M7#71!;B!.;7$M!31!QM6;5;7U%7!0;42!2C/023B9$6?22%2!B3/!$%!3D02#55%$%!0:$0A#B2%/&!IJK"L!6%/%1M7%/!$;15#1%!.:/$#%/!#!%2!D97A2!DR!%7!4;/A&!O3$%55%7!A/:.%/!$%2;5X%/%$%!#7B3/4;2#37%/Z!^%/97M$%/!A;/;A2%/#0%/#71!;B!X3/$%70!A%4#0A%!31!B?0#0A%!%1%70A;6%/Z!$;15#1%!4%2%3/3531#0A%!$;2;0;42!6%0A/#.%50%!;B!0:$0A#B2%!31!1C$0A7#710D/;A0#0&

O3$%56%0A/#.%50%7!B3/!%7A%52%!;B1/C$%/!%/!:7$/%2!#!B3/^35$!2#5!$%!3D/#7$%5#1%!B/;!a;70%7!%2!;5&Y,PP,[&!I%7!4;A0#4;5%!9$7?22%50%!;B!#7$02/R5#71%7!B3/!.#72%/;B1/C$%/7%!%/!/%$9U%/%2!2#5!P@iZ$;!43$%55%7!#AA%!2;1%/!^%70?7!2#5!.#72%/0A;$%/!DR!;B1/C$%/7%0!65;$;/%;5!31!0A;$%/!3D02R%2!D1;&AC/%0D3/!31!0A;$%.35$%/%&!=7$.#$%/%!%/!$%/!#7$5;12!%2!^C022;6!DR!'i!;B!A%/7%9$6?22%2!31!+'i

,'

;B!^;549$6?22%2!0.;/%7$%!2#5!2;6!B/;!$C$%!65;$%!31!.%$!0;44%7/#.7#71!0;42!^C022;6!B/;!A%/7%/Z;.7%/!31!02;A!YNC/1%0%7!%2!;5&Z!,PP)[&

S#$5#1%/%!97$%/0C1%50%/!4%$!IJK"L!YQ#%50%7!%2!;5&Z!,PP+[!.#02%Z!;2!/;X1/:043$95%2!3.%/.9/$%M/%/!D5;72%D/3$9A2#37%7!6%2?$%5#12&!"D%U#B#A!65;$;/%;5!B3/!/;X1/:0!%/!$%/B3/!:7$/%2!B/;!,&)!2#5!,&@4+W!A1!2C/023B&!S#5D;07#71%7%!%/!0A%2!0R5%$%0Z!;2!7#.%;9%2!B3/!2C/023B9$6?22%/7%!02%44%/!3.%/M%70!4%$!%2!9$6?22%7#.%;9Z!$%/!%/!3D7R%2!#!B3/0C1!4%$!/;X1/:0!YS^340%7Z!,P*P[&

<5C.%/43$95%2!#!IJK"L!%/!3D02#55%2!DR!6;11/97$!;B!23R/#1%!B3/0C1!DR!aCX6;AA%1R/$Z!S;;02/9D31!\3/0A7#710U%72%/!V#0C&!O3$95%2!%/!#AA%!%7$%5#1!A;5#6/%/%2Z!^.3/B3/!/%0952;2%/7%!0A;5!2;1%04%$!B3/6%^35$&

IJK"LM43$%55%7!.;/!#!$%7!;7.%7$2%!9$1;.%!#AA%!9$.#A5%2!2#5!;2!0#495%/%!B5%/%!.3A0%7$%D5;72%;/2%/0!#7$6?/$%0!A37A9//%7U%!34!5?0Z!.;7$!31!Q!#!X3/$%7&!K!6%/%17#71%/7%!#7$1R/!$%/B3/A97!n7!.3A0%7$%!;B1/C$%!;$!1;71%7&!\3/!A5C.%/1/:04;/A%7!%/!$%/!1%77%4BC/2!43$%56%/%1M7#71%/!;B!0:$0A#B2%/!4%$!/%7%!A5C.%/M!31!/;X1/:04;/A%/Z!034!$%/%B2%/!#!"<=>!A;7!A346#7%/%0%B2%/!;7$%5%7!;B!D5;72%;/2%7!#!$%7!0;45%$%!;B1/C$%&

>;/;4%2%/#0%/#71%7!;B!023B340:27#710^;02#1^%$%7!31!B3/$%5#71%7!;B!$%2!3/1;7#0A%!023B!#!D95X%/%/!$%!0;44%Z!034!%/!;7.%7$2!#!a;70%7!k!".%7$0%7!Y,PPG[&

2.2.7 Database

V%0952;2%/7%!B/;!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/!4%$!IJK"L!%/!5;12!#7$!#!%7!$;2;6;0%Z^.3/!$%!B3/0A%55#1%!A34D37%72%/!#!.;7$M!31!QM6;5;7U%7!#7$1R/!XB&!B#19/!+&!"<=>M43$%50?02%M4%2!;7.%7$%/!$;2;6;0%7Z!$%/!#7$%^35$%/!/%0952;2%/!B3/!%7!5;71!/:AA%!0:$0A#B2%/!31!1C$7#710MD5;7%/&

2.3 SKEP-modelsystemet

2.3.1 Bedrifts- og markoplysninger

O3$%50?02%4%2!A/:.%/!%7!/:AA%!#7$1;710$;2;Z!$%/!6%0A/#.%/!0:$0A#B2%Z!1C$7#710D5;7Z!X3/$2?MD%!31!A5#4;B3/^35$&!\3/!^.%/!4;/A!#!0:$0A#B2%2!;71#.%0!;B1/C$%7Z!;B1/C$%70!B3/B/912!31!%B2%/MBC51%7$%!;B1/C$%!0;42!9$6/#717#7102#$0D97A2!B3/!2#5BC/2!^90$?/1C$7#71&!I%09$%7!3D5?0%0!34X3/$2?D%Z!31!34!$%/!B3/%2;1%0!.;7$#71!;B!;B1/C$%7& a%5%!0:$0A#B2%2!43$%56%/%17%0!B3/!%2!3D1#M.%2!A5#4;R/&!K7$1;710$;2;!34B;22%/!$%09$%7!Q!2#5BC/2!4%$!^;7$%50M!31!^90$?/1C$7#71!0;42!%7;4437#;AB3/$;4D7#710MD/3U%72!B3/!9$6/;12!^90$?/1C$7#71&

2.3.2 Beregninger med SKEP modelsystemet

-D5?07#71%/7%!#!#7$1;710$;2;!;7.%7$%0!2#5!9$.:51%50%!;B /%0952;2%/!;B!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%!43M$%56%/%17#71%/Z!$%/!0A;5!;7.%7$%0!#!"<=>!#72%/D35;2#370M6%/%17#71%7&!K!6#5;1!+!B#19/!,!%/!.#02%2!%A0%4D%5!DR!/%0952;2%/!;B!1/97$5:11%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/!B3/!%7!A346#7;2#37!;B!A5;00%.;M/#;65%&

K!"<=>!6%/%17#71%/7%!#7$1R/!6%/%17#71%/7%!;B!;4437#;AB3/$;4D7#71!.%$!9$6/#717#71!;B^90$?/1C$7#71&!a.3/!;4437#;AB3/$;4D7#71%7!#!$%!3D02#55%$%!1C$7#710D5;7%/!%/!B3/0A%55#1!B/;,'i!;B!;4437#94#7$^35$%2!#!^90$?/1C$7#71%7!Y;7.%7$2!034!02;7$;/$!#!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%

,(

43$%56%/%17#71%/[Z!A3//#1%/%0!$%/!^%/B3/!#!"<=>!43$%56%/%17#71%/7%&!<3//%A2#37%7!1%77%4MBC/%0!.%$!;2!BX%/7%!%55%/!2#5BC/%!^;7$%50M!%55%/!^90$?/1C$7#71!0.;/%7$%!2#5!B3/0A%55%7!4%55%4$%7!B3/$;4D%$%!QM4:71$%Z!$%/!#7$1R/!#!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/!31!$%7!QM4:71$%Z!$%/!;72;1%0!B3/$;4D%2!#!$%7!;7.%7$2%!1C$7#710D/;A0#0&!<3//%A2#37%7!1%77%4BC/%03.%/.%X%7$%!4%$!^;7$%501C$7#710MQ&!a.#0!$%/!#AA%!;7.%7$%0!^;7$%501C$7#71!#!B3/6#7$%50%4%$!2#5$%5#71!;B!^90$?/1C$7#71Z!034!%A0%4D%5.#0!.%$!%B2%/R/09$6/#71#71!;B!^90$?/1C$7#71ZBX%/7%0W2#5BC/%0!$%7!:A.#.;5%72%!4:71$%!Q!#!B3/4!;B!^90$?/1C$7#71&

I%!B#/%!/%0952;2%/!$%/!0A;5!#7$1R!#!#72%/D35;2#370M6%/%17#71%/7%Z!9$.:51%0!#!"<=>!43$%55%7.%$!;2!B#7$%!$%!23!7#.%;9%/!;B!^90$?/1C$7#7102#5BC/0%5!B/;!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%!43$%56%/%17#7M1%/Z!$%/!5#11%/!2:22%02!DR!^90$?/1C$7#7102#5BC/05%7!B3/!4;/A%7!31!$%/7:02!9$.:51%!$%!23!0:21/97$5:11%7$%!/%0952;2%/Z!^.3/!^;7$%501C$7#7102#5BC/05%7!5#11%/!2:22%02!DR!$%7!;7.%7$2%!^;7M$%501C$7#7104:71$%!B3/!4;/A%7&!=2!%A0%4D%5!DR!9$.:51%50%!;B!1/97$5:11%7$%!/%0952;2%/B#7$%0!#!6#5;1!+Z!B#19/!+&

"<=>!6%/%17%/!$%2!%7$%5#1%!/%0952;2M$;2;0:2!.%$!5#7%:/!#72%/D35;2#37!4%55%4!3.%77:.72%^;7$%51C$7#7104:71$%/!31!^90$?/1C$7#7107#.%;9%/&!V%0952;2M$;2;0:22%2!#7$%^35$%/!$;2;!B3/2C/023B9$6?22%2!31!QM6;5;7U%7&!SC/023B9$6?22%2!%/!3D$%52!#!D/#4:/!YA%/7%!%55%/!/3%5%1%4%[!310%A97$:/!9$6?22%!Y^;54!%55%/!/3%23D[&!QM6;5;7U%7!%/!3D$%52!#!QMB#A0%/#71Z!;4437#;AB3/$;4DM7#71!B/;!9$6/;12!^90$?/1C$7#71Z!QM9$.;0A7#71Z!QM9$6?22%!Y3D$%52!#!D/#4:/!31!0%A97$:/!9$M6?22%[Z!:7$/#71!#!X3/$%70!3/1;7#0A%!31!93/1;7#0A%!D95X%/!0;42!B3/0A%55%7!#!QM#7$^35$!#!$%7.3A0%7$%!;B1/C$%!4%55%4!02;/2M!31!05922#$0D97A2%2!B3/!3D1C/%50%0D%/#3$%7&!=2!%A0%4D%5!DR!%7#72%/D35;2#3706%/%17#71!0%0!#!6#5;1!+Z!B#19/!+&

H;7$6;5;7U%A34D37%72%/7%!7%$6C/Z!;A29%5!B3/$;4D7#71!31!;B02/C47#71!B/;!/3$]37%7!%/!#IJK"L!6%/%17%2!9;B^:71#1!;B!QM1C$0A7#71%7&!I%2!4%$BC/%/Z!;2!$#00%!.:/$#%/!#AA%!0A;5!6%M/%17%0!.%$!#72%/D35;2#37Z!4%7!%/!0D%U#B#AA%!B3/!^.%/!A346#7;2#37!;B!A5#4;34/R$%Z!A5#4;R/ZX3/$2?D%Z!.;7$#71Z!B3/B/912Z!;B1/C$%!31!%B2%/BC51%7$%!;B1/C$%&

2.3.3 Kalibrering af udbyttet i SKEP modelsystemet

d$6?22%7#.%;9%2!6%/%17%2!4%$!IJK"L!43$%55%7!DR!;4207#.%;9!YNC/1%0%7!%2!;5&Z!,PP)[!.;/1%7%/%52!^CX%/%!0;44%75#17%2!4%$!1%77%407#25#1%!;A29%52!3D7R%$%!9$6?22%/!3D1X3/2!#!T;7$M6/91002;2#02#AA%7!YI;74;/A0!"2;2#02#AZ!,PP([&!I%2!0A?5$%0Z!;2!9$6?22%/7%!#!IJK"L!43$%55%7A97!6%1/:70%0!;B!A5#4;Z!.;7$!31!A.:5023B&!d7$%/!6%$/#B20B3/^35$!#!D/;A0#0!A;7!$%/!B3/%A344%B3/0A%55#1%!6%1/:70%7$%!.:A02B;A23/%/!^%/97$%/!7:/#710023BB%/7%!B30B3/Z!4;17%0#94Z!A;5#944&B5&!0;42!9A/9$2!31!0?1$344%&!I%/B3/!%/!$%/!#!"<=>!43$%50?02%4%2!3D02#55%2!%7!4%23$%Z^.3/!%BB%A2%/7%!;B!$#00%!B3/^35$!0C1%0!#7$$/;1%2!#!6%/%17#71%/7%&!d$6?22%M2#5D;07#71%7!#!"<=>0A%/!.%$Z!;2!43$%55%7!3D$%5%/!%7!4;/A!#!%7!D/3$9A2#.!31!%7!o#AA%-D/3$9A2#.o!;7$%5&!I%7!D/3M$9A2#.%!;7$%5!$?/A%0!4%$!;B1/C$%7!034!73/4;52!B3/!4;/A%7&!I%7!o#AA%MD/3$9A2#.%o!;7$%56%/%17%0!034!%7!/;X1/:0!;B1/C$%Z!$%/!#AA%!^C02%0&!V;X1/:0!;B1/C$%7!%/!.;512!034!09602#292!B3/%7!9A/9$20!;B1/C$%&!I%77%!3D$%5#71!;B!4;/A%7!#!%7!;B1/C$%!;7$%5!31!%7!o#AA%MD/3$9A2#.o!;7$%51#.%/!495#1^%$!B3/!;2!X902%/%!9$6?22%7#.%;9%2!2#5!$%2!;A29%52!3D7R%$%!9$6?22%7#.%;9&!a%/.%$!BR/QM6;5;7U%!A34D37%72%7!o^C02%2!Qo!%7!02C//%50%Z!$%/!%/!/%;5#02#0A!#!B3/^35$!2#5!$%7!4:71$%!QZ$%/!;A29%52!BX%/7%0!.%$!^C02!;B!;B1/C$%7&!I%2!6%4:/A%0Z!;2!/;X1/:0M!31!^3.%$;B1/C$%7!#AA%.%A0%5.#/A%/!97$%/!.:A02B3/5C6%2&!J7$%5%7!;B!$%7!o#AA%MD/3$9A2#.%o!;7$%5!.;/#%/%/!4%55%4;B1/C$%/!4%7!9$1C/!0:$.;75#1.#0!B/;!@M,@i&!\3/!1/:04;/A%/!A;7!$%7!o#AA%MD/3$9A2#.%o!;7$%5$31!9$1C/%!3D!2#5!+@MG@iZ!4%7!$;!/;X1/:0Z!$%/!^C02%0Z!%/02;22%0!4%$!/;X1/:0Z!$%/!#AA%!^C02%0Z4%$BC/%/!$%2!#AA%!731%2!.:0%725#12!D/365%4!#!6%/%17#71%7!;B!Q!6;5;7U%7&

,)

J7$%5%7!;B!4;/A%7Z!$%/!#AA%!%/!D/3$9A2#.Z!%/!43$%56%/%17%2!.%$!0;44%!QM1C$0A7#71!31!X3/$M6%^;7$5#71Z!X3/$2?D%!31!A5#4;!034!^3.%$;B1/C$%7&!<95023B!31!QZ!$%/!3D2;1%0!5C6%7$%!#1%7M7%4!.:A02D%/#3$%7!;B!$%7!A37A9//%/%7$%!;B1/C$%!Y^%/!/;X1/:00%2[Z!BC/%0!2#56;1%!2#5!X3/$%7!#B3/6#7$%50%!4%$!X3/$6%^;7$5#71!34!%B2%/R/%2!DR!0;44%!4R$%!034!;B1/C$%/%02%/!Y0296Z!^;5444&[&!a%/.%$!6%.;/%0!Q!#!3/1;7#0A!B3/4!#!.:A02D%/#3$%7!31!#7$1R/!%B2%/!X3/$6%^;7$5#71!#!$%0;44%!340:27#710D/3U%00%/!034!$%!C./#1%!;B1/C$%/%02%/!Y0296Z!^;54Z!/C$$%/[&!S#56;1%BC/05%7;B!D5;72%4;2%/#;5%2!2#5!X3/$%7!DR.#/A%/!4;/A%70!QM6;5;7U%!#1%77%4!%7!4#7$/%!^C02!;B!Q!31!%702C//%!4#7%/;5#0%/#71!;B!3/1;7#0A!697$%2!Q!#!%B2%/R/W.#72%/D%/#3$%7&!8%7%/%52!A;7!$%7!02C//%4#7%/;5#0%/#71!BC/%!2#5!02C//%!QM9$.;0A7#71!#!$%7!%B2%/BC51%7$%!;B02/C47#710D%/#3$%!31W%55%/02C//%!QM4#7!#!B3/R/%2&

2.4 Anvendelse af SKEP modelsystemet og SIM IIIB i landsdækkende beregninger

2.4.1 Indgangsdata

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o-D0A;5%/#71043$%5M5%7o&!-D0A;5%/#7143$%55%70!3D6?17#71Z!$%!%7A%52%!43$95%/0!A365#71!31!#7D92!$;2;!2#5!43$9M5%/7%!%/!.#02!#!B#19/!,&!=2!%A0%4D%5!DR!%7!6%/%17#71!4%$!3D0A;5%/#71043$%55%7!B3/!%7!A3449M7%!%/!6%0A/%.%2!#!6#5;1!+&!K!$%2!BC51%7$%!1%77%41R0!D/#7U#DD%/7%!B3/!3D02#55#71!;B!0:$0A#B2%/4%$!2#5^C/%7$%!QM1C$7#710D5;7!9$!B/;!02;2#02#0A%!$;2;0:2Z!31!^.3/5%$%0!0:$0A#B2%/7%!;7.%7$%0#!6%/%17#71%/7%!4%$!"<=>!43$%50?02%4%2!DR!5;7$0D5;7&

2.4.2 Opstilling af sædskifter i de landsdækkende beregninger

<34497%$;2;!B3/!$%2!$?/A%$%!;/%;5!3D$%52!DR!B#/%!o43$%5M6%$/#B202?D%/o!YA.:1Z!0.#7Z!65;7$%231!D5;72%;.5[!9$1C/!1/97$5;1%2!B3/!3D02#55#71!;B!0:$0A#B2%/!#!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!43$%56%/%1M7#71%/&!J55%!6%$/#B2%/!#!A34497%7!/%D/:0%72%/%0!#!$%!B#/%!o43$%5M6%$/#B202?D%/o&!=A0%4D%5.#0/%D/:0%72%/%/!o43$%5MA.:16%$/#B2%7o!0;425#1%!A.:16%$/#B2%/!Y4^2&!$?/%%7^%$%/Z!0:$0A#B2%/!311C$0A7#71[!#!A34497%7&!I%2!$?/A%$%!;/%;5!%/!#!A34497%02;2#02#AA%7!3D$%52!#!%2!.;7$%2!319.;7$%2!;/%;5&!I%09$%7!#7$1R/!;72;5!$?/%%7^%$%/!;B!A.:1!31!0.#7!31!$;2;!B3/!;/%;5;7.%7$%50%7DR!A34497%7#.%;9&!I#00%!$;2;!%/!2#51:71%5#1%!B/;!8TV!31!5;7$6/91002;2#02#AA%7!9$1#.%2!;BI;74;/A0!"2;2#02#A&

8TVM$;2;!^;/!%7!^CX!$%2;5X%/#7101/;$!4^2&!$?/%;/2%/!31!$?/A%$%!;B1/C$%/&!J72;55%2!;B!A346#M7;2#37%/!#!8TV!%/!/%$9U%/%2!.%$!%7!1/9DD%/#71!;B!$?/%;/2%/!31!;B1/C$%/Z!$%/!1#.%/!495#1^%$B3/Z!;2!$;2;!A;7!A365%0!2#5!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/&!I?/%;/2%/7%!%/!05R%2!0;44%7!#23!^3.%$1/9DD%/!oA.:1o!31!o0.#7o&!I?/%;/2%7!oA.:1o!#7$%^35$%/!4;5A%MZ!B%$%M!31!;44%MA.:1Z^%02%Z!BR/!31!;7$/%!$/C.2?11%/%&!I?/%;/2%7!o0.#7o!#7$%^35$%/!05;12%0.#7Z!0C%/Z!04R1/#0%Z!1:0ZA?55#71%/Z!4#7A!4&B5&

JB1/C$%/7%!B/;!8TV!%/!B3/$%52 #!U;&!,@@!1/9DD%/&!I%!%/!^%/!05R%2!0;44%7!2#5!A3/7;B1/C$%/7%h.R/6?1Z!.#72%/6?1Z!.#72%/^.%$%!31!:/2%/p!#7$902/#;B1/C$%/7%h!A;/23B5%/!31!09AA%//3%/p!B/C;B1/CM$%7h!.#72%//;D0p!1/3.B3$%/;B1/C$%/7%h!/;X1/:0!#!34$/#B2Z!A5C.%/1/:0!#!34$/#B2Z!.%$.;/%7$%

,*

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Figur 4&!=A0%4D%5!DR!0:$0A#B2%/!3D02#55%2!B3/!$%!B#/%!43$%5M6%$/#B202?D%/!YA.:1MZ!0.#7%MZ!65;7M$%2!31!D5;72%6/91[!DR!A34497%7#.%;9!XB&!2/#7!,!#!B#19/!,&!8C$7#710D5;7%/!3D02#55%0!B3/!^.%/;B1/C$%!XB&!2/#7!+&!"2#D5%$%!5#7#%/!;71#.%/!3D$%5#71!;B!4;/A%/7%0!;/%;5%/!$%/!2#5BC/%0!B3/0A%55#1%1C$7#7104:71$%/!;B!Q!4%$!^90$?/1C$7#71!Y^$&[!31!^;7$%501C$7#71!Y^$5[&!XB&!2/#7!+&!\3/!9$M.;512%!;B1/C$%/!%/!1#.%2!%A0%4D%5!DR!2#5BC/2!4:71$%!^90$?/1C$7#71!lA1!QW^;m&

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2.4.3 Opstilling af gødningsplaner i de landsdækkende beregninger

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+@

2.4.4 Anvendelsen af de opstillede sædskifter og N-gødningsplaner i SKEP beregningerne

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2.4.5 Klimaområder

T;7$%2!%/!3D$%52!#!0%A0!A5#4;34/R$%/Z!$%/!;7.%7$%0!034!A5;00%.;/#;65%!#!"<=>!6%/%17#71%/M7%&!a.%/!A5#4;]37%!6%02R/!;B!4%2%3/3531#0A%!$;2;!B/;!%7!A5#4;02;2#37!#7$%7!B3/!34/R$%2&8/:70%/7%!#4%55%4!$%!0%A0!A5#4;34/R$%/!%/!B;020;2!9$!B/;!%7!02;2#02#0A!;7;5?0%!;B!%7!/:AA%

21

meteorologiske data herunder nedbørsforholdene (Olesen et al., 2000). De grundlæggendemodelberegninger er foretaget med klimadata fra en bestemt klimastation/klimazone. Bereg-ningerne for en kommune kobles til den klimazone, hvor der er bedst overensstemmelse mel-lem kommunens og klimazonens vejrforhold. Klimaområderne og klimastationernes beliggen-hed er vist i figur 5.

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Figur 5. Beliggenhed af de meteorologiske målestationer og tilhørende klimaområder efterOlesen et al., (2000).

2.4.6 JordtyperI de grundlæggende modelberegninger er anvendt fire jordtyper, der repræsenterer typiskesandjorde (JB1, JB3) og typiske lerjorde (JB4, JB6). I de landsdækkende jordtypekort erjordtyperne for overjorden opdelt i 8 klasser beskrevet ved farvekoder og for underjorden vedto jordarter. Jordtypekortet for overjorden og jordartskortet for underjorden integreres til etkort med fire klasser af rodzonekapaciteter, der anvendes i de landsdækkende modelberegnin-ger. De fire rodzoneklasser kobles i regionaliseringen til jordtypen, der indgår i de grundlæg-gende modelberegninger. I tabel 3, bilag 1 er vist, hvordan jordtypen for overjorden og jord-arten for underjorden kobles til en rodzonekapacitet, der er repræsenteret i de grundlæggendemodelberegninger.

I figur 6 er vist, hvorledes det landsdækkende kort over jordtype for overjorden og jord-artskortet for underjorden er integreret til et kort med de fire anvendte jordtypers rodzoneka-pacitet. Arealet inden for kommunen af hvert af de fire områder anvendes i SKEP til at opdelesandjordssædskiftet i et JB1- og JB3-sædskifte og lerjordssædskiftet i et JB4- og JB6-sædskifte.

++

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Figur 6&!T;7$0$:AA%7$%!X3/$697$0A3/2!B3/!97$%/X3/$%7!31!3.%/X3/$%7Z!0;42!%2!A3/2!^.3//3$]37%A;D;U#2%2%7!#!^%7^35$0.#0!3.%/M!31!97$%/X3/$%7!%/!#72%1/%/%2!2#5!%2!0#4D5#B#U%/%2!A3/23.%/!/3$]37%A;D;U#2%2!B3/!6%11%!$?6$%/&

2.4.7 Tilpasning af udbyttet i de landsdækkende beregninger

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2.4.8 Klimanormalisering af de landsdækkende modelberegninger

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2.4.9 SIM IIIB modellen

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2.4.10 Landsdækkende modelberegninger med SIM IIIB

<.:5023B9$.;0A7#71%7!6%/%17%0!DR!A34497%7#.%;9!B3/!$%!3D02#55%$%!0:$0A#B2%/!31!1C$M7#710D5;7%/!DR!0;44%!4R$%!034!.%$!"<=>WIJK"L!6%/%17#71%/7%&!N%/%17#71%/7%!1%77%4BCM/%0!DR!;B1/C$%M!31!X3/$2?D%7#.%;9!31!A346#7%/%0!2#5!0:$0A#B2%/!.%$!;2!.:12%!/%0952;2%/7%!#!B3/M^35$!2#5!;/%;5%2!4%$!A346#7;2#37%7!;B!;B1/C$%!31!X3/$2?D%&

a.%/!A346#7;2#37!;B!;B1/C$%WX3/$2?D%!6%/%17%0!4%$!;B02/C47#71%/!6%/%17%2!4%$!IJK"L!DRR/06;0#0!97$%/!;A29%55%!A5#4;B3/^35$!4R52!.%$!A5#4;02;2#37%7!B3/!D%/#3$%7!,P*PM,PP*!#!A5#4;M]37%7!Y0%!B#19/!E[&!8%77%407#22%2!;B!9$.;0A7#71%7!6%/%17%2!B3/!^.%/!;B!$%!322%!R/!;7.%7$%0034!$%2!A5#4;73/4;5#0%/%$%!/%0952;2&

I%77%!4%23$%!%/!B3/0A%55#1!B/;!4%23$%7!;7.%7$2!#!8/;72!%2!;5&!Y+@@@[&!K!7:/.:/%7$%!6%/%17#7M1%/!%/!$%7!A5#4;73/4;5#0%/%$%!9$.;0A7#71!6%/%17%2!DR!6;11/97$!;B!1%77%407#20%BB%A2%7!;B;B02/C47#71%7!DR!9$.;0A7#71%7&!K!8/;72!%2!;5&!Y+@@@[!%/!$%7!A5#4;73/4;5#0%/%$%!9$.;0A7#716%/%17%2!DR!6;11/97$!;B!$%7!1%77%407#25#1%!;B02/C47#71&!8%77%407#20%BB%A2%7!;B!$%!%7A%52%R/0!;B02/C47#71%/!DR!9$.;0A7#71%7!%/!B3/0A%55#1!B/;!%BB%A2%7!6%/%17%2!.%$!%7!1%77%407#20;BM02/C47#71Z!$;!;B02/C47#710%BB%A2%7!%/!%7!%AD37%72#%52!;B2;1%7$%!B97A2#37!X&B/!B97A2#3709$M2/?AA%2&!I%!23!4%23$%/!%/!$#0A92%/%2!#!A;D!G&+&

2.5 Beregninger af kvælstofudvaskningen på landsplan for scenarier for udvalgte år

2.5.1 Scenarier

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

H%$!3D02#55#71%7!;B!0U%7;/#%/7%!#7$1R/!B3/0A%55#1%!;72;1%50%/!34!4:71$%7!;B!Q!2#5BC/2!4%$^90$?/1C$7#71!Y<?55#7106:A!%2!;5&Z!+@@@[&!K!43$%56%/%17#71%/7%!4%$!IJK"L!%/!$%/!2;1%2^CX$%!B3/!B3/0A%55%7!#!2;6!;B!Q!.%$!;4437#;AB3/$;4D7#71!#!0U%7;/#%/7%Z!4%70!$%7!%4D#/#0A%43$%5!A97!2;1%/!^CX$%!B3/!:7$/%2!;4437#;AB3/$;4D7#71!#!$%2!34B;71Z!$%2!#7$1R/!#!D;/;4%M2/%7%Z!$%/!6%0A/#.%/!%BB%A2%7!;B!B3/R/0M!31!%B2%/R/09$6/;12!^90$?/1C$7#71&

+)

2.5.2 Indgangsdata til opstilling af sædskifter

-D0A;5%/#71043$%55%7!YN#5;1!+[!%/!;7.%7$2!.%$!3D02#55#71!;B /%D/:0%72;2#.%!0:$0A#B2%/!4%$2#5^C/%7$%!1C$7#710D5;7%/!DR!$%!B#/%!o43$%5M6%$/#B202?D%/o!DR!A34497%7#.%;9&!":$0A#B2%/7%3D02#55%0!9$!B/;!A34497%$;2;!B3/!;/%;5;7.%7$%50%Z!$?/%2:2^%$%/Z!6%$/#B202?D%/!31!X3/$2?D%/&J/%;5;7.%7$%50%7!31!$?/%2:2^%$%7Z!$%/!%/!;7.%7$2!#!0U%7;/#%/7%!*'W*(!31!*PWP@Z!%/!6;0%/%2!DR;/%;5;7.%7$%50%7!3D1X3/2!B3/!;42%/7%!31!$?/%2:2^%$%7!DR!6%$/#B202?D%/!#7$%7!B3/!A34497%7!#R/%7%!,P*'!31!,P*P!YI;74;/A0!"2;2#02#AZ!,P*'!31,P*P[&!J/%;5;7.%7$%50%7!31!$?/%2:2^%$%7!#0U%7;/#%/7%!P'WP(Z!P(WP)Z!P)WP*Z!P*WPPZPPW@@!31!@,W@@!%/!B/%40A/%.%2!DR!6;11/97$!;B!$;2;!B/;8TV!B/;!B%6/9;/!,PP*&

K!B#19/!P!%/!;/%;5;7.%7$%50%7!;B!$%2!$?/A%$%!;/%;5!3D1X3/2!DR!5;7$0D5;7!B3/!0U%7;/#%/7%!*GW*'Z*PWP@!31!P*WPP&

"U%7;/#%/7%Z!$%/!/%D/:0%72%/%/!R/%2!P'WP(!31!$%!%B2%/BC51%7$%!R/Z!6%0A/#.%0!9$!B/;!8TVM$;2;B/;!,PP*!.%$!;2!B/%40A/#.%!;/%;5%2!;B!$%!%7A%52%!;B1/C$%/!D/3D3/2#37;52!4%$!:7$/#71%7!#!$%2$?/A%$%!;/%;5!3D1X3/2!#!5;7$6/91002;2#02#AA%7!YI;74;/A0!"2;2#02#AZ!,PP(MPP[&!I%2!6%2?$%/Z!;2;/%;5;7.%7$%50%7!#!0U%7;/#%/7%!B3/!P'WP(Z!P(WP)Z!P)WP*Z!PPW@@!31!@@W@,!^;/!0;44%!/%5;2#.%B3/$%5#71!4%55%4!;B1/C$%2?D%/7%!034!0U%7;/#%!P*WPP&

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Figur 9&!J/%;5;7.%7$%50%7!#!0U%7;/#%/7%!*GW*'Z!*PWP@!31!P*WPP&

I%7!D/3U%72.#0%!;7$%5!;B!;/%;5%2!$?/A%2!4%$!.#72%/A3/7!%/!3D1X3/2!#!A34497%/7%!#!*GW*'!31P*WPP!0U%7;/#%2!YB#19/!,@[&!I%2!0A;5!6%4:/A%0Z!;2!#!*GW*'!0U%7;/#%2!%/!;/%;5%2!4%$!.#72%/A3/7!#A34497%/7%!6%/%17%2!9$!B/;!;4202;5!B/;!T;7$6/91002;2#02#AA%7!31!9$!B/;!;72;55%2!;B!A.:1$?/%M%7^%$%/!XB&!+&E&+&!I%2!6%2?$%/Z!;2!.;/#;2#37%7!#!$?/A7#710D/;A0#0!4%55%4!A34497%/7%!0;7$M

Areal anvendelse i scenarierne

3233/33133N33'33'23

N/PN( NOPO3 ONPOO

Dyrknings år

1000

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2.5.3 Indgangsdata til opstilling af gødningsplaner

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Figur 12&!N%/%17%2!1%77%407#25#1!2#5BC/0%5!;B!A.:5023B!4%$!^;7$%501C$7#71!#!A34497%/7%!#R/%7%!*GW*'!31!@@W@,&

\#19/!,+!.#0%/Z!;2!$%2!6%/%17%$%!^;7$%501C$7#710B3/6/91!#!*GW*'!5#11%/!4%55%4!,+@M,'@!A1QW^;!31!#AA%!.;/#%/%/!6%2?$%5#12!4%55%4!A34497%/7%&!K!@@W@,!%/!$%/!02C//%!.;/#;2#37Z!^.#5A%2D/#4:/2!0A?5$%0Z!;2!$%/!02#55%0!02C//%!A/;.!2#5!9$7?22%50%7!;B!Q!#!^90$?/1C$7#71&!I%7!9$6/;12%4:71$%!Q!4%$!^90$?/1C$7#71!BR/!#!@@W@,!0U%7;/#%2!023/!#7$B5?$%50%!DR!^;7$%501C$7#710B3/M6/91%2!#!A34497%7&!K!@@W@,!0U%7;/#%2!%/!;/%;5;7.%7$%50%7!6%/%17%2!9$!B/;!A34497%$;2;!B/;8TVZ!4%70!;/%;5;7.%7$%50%7!#!*GW*'!0U%7;/#%2!%/!6%/%17%2!9$!B/;!;4202;5!31!;72;55%2!;B!A.:1M$?/%%7^%$%/!#!A34497%7&!a%/.%$!65#.%/!$%/!0;7$0?75#1.#0!02C//%!.;/#;2#37!#!;/%;5;7.%7$%50%74%55%4!A34497%/7%!#!@@W@,!%7$!#!*GW*'!31!$%/.%$!495#1.#0!310R!02C//%!.;/#;2#37!#!QM6%^3.%2&!";44%7!4%$!%BB%A2%7!;B!^90$?/1C$7#71%7!%/!$%22%!B3/^35$!0;7$0?75#1.#0!$%7!D/#4:M/%!R/0;1!2#5!$%7!02C//%!.;/#;2#37!#!^;7$%501C$7#710B3/6/91%2!#!+@@@W@,&

E+

3. Resultater af modelberegninger af kvælstofudvaskning på landsplan

3.1 Total kvælstofudvaskningV%0952;2%/7%!;B!6%/%17#71%/!;B!A.:5023B9$.;0A7#71%7!DR!5;7$0D5;7!%/!.#02!#!B#19/!,E&!g7$/#7M1%7!#!$%7!232;5%!9$.;0A7#71!0A?5$%0!6R$%!:7$/%2!;/%;5;7.%7$%50%!31!QM1C$0A7#71!#!0U%7;/#%/M7%!31!%7!/%$9A2#37!;B!$%2!$?/A%$%!;/%;5!B/;!U;&!+&*GG&@@@!^;!#!,P*'!2#5!U;&!+&(GG&@@@!^;!#!,PPP&

Figur 13&!<.:5023B9$.;0A7#71!6%/%17%2!B3/!0U%7;/#%/7%!*GW*'!t@@W@,!4%$!43$%55%/7%!"KOKKKN!31!"<=>WIJK"L&

d$.;0A7#71%7!%/!1%7%/%52!02C//%Z!7R/!"KO!KKKN!;7.%7$%0Z!%7$!7R/!"<=>WIJK"L!;7.%7$%0&d$.;0A7#71%7!B;5$%/!B/;!^%7^35$0.#0!+('&@@@!2!Y"KO!KKKN[!31!+GP&@@@!Y"<=>WIJK"L[!#!*GW*'2#5!^%7^35$0.#0!,*)&@@@!2!Q!Y"KO!KKKN[!31!,)P&@@@!2!Q!Y"<=>WIJK"L[!#!@@W@,&

V%$9A2#37%7!#!9$.;0A7#71%7!%/!6%/%17%2!2#5!)*&@@@!2!Q!4%$!"KO!KKKN!31!)@&@@@!2!Q!4%$"<=>WIJK"L&!I%7!02C/02%!/%$9A2#37!#!A.:5023B9$.;0A7#71%7!0A%/!B/;!*GW*'!2#5!P'WP(&!K!D%/#3M$%7!P(MP*!%/!9$.;0A7#71%7!7:02%7!A3702;72Z!4%7!#!$%!23!0#$02%!R/!%/!$%/!0A%2!%2!?$%/5#1%/%!B;5$&I%2!^:71%/!D/#4:/2!0;44%7!4%$Z!;2!B3/6/91%2!;B!^;7$%501C$7#71!%/!B;5$%2!4%$!U;&!E@&@@@!2!Q#!$%!0#$02%!23!R/&

d$.;0A7#71%7!3D1X3/2!DR!A34497%7#.%;9!#!*GW*'!31!@@W@,!6%/%17%2!4%$!"<=>WIJK"L!43M$%55%7!.#0%/Z!;2!$%/!%/!/%1#37;5%!B3/0A%55%!YB#19/!,G[&!K!*GW*'!%/!9$.;0A7#71%7!02C/02!#!O#$2M!31H%02X?55;7$Z!4%70!$%7!#!@@W@,!%/!02C/02!#!$%2!C025#1%!"C7$%/X?55;7$!31!DR!"?$B?7&

Udvaskning af kvælstof på landsplan

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4$="65#7#H%[5H%ZPF"\&/(/(%?%1313%?%0(0(%?%O3O3%?%'3('3(%?%'23.'23

Figur 14&!<.:5023B9$.;0A7#71!3D1X3/2!DR!A34497%7#.%;9!6%/%17%2!4%$!"<=>WIJK"L!B3/0U%7;/#%/7%!*GW*'!31!@@W@,&

3.2 Reduktionen i kvælstofudvaskningV%$9A2#37%7!#!9$.;0A7#71%7!#!B3/^35$!2#5!0U%7;/#94!*GW*'!%/!6%/%17%2!4%$!$%!23!43$%55%/YB#19/!,'[&!I%/!%/!731%7!B3/0A%5!DR!$%!23!43$%55%/0!/%0952;2%/Z!31!$%2!0%0Z!;2!/%$9A2#37%7!%/02C/02Z!7R/!"KO!KKKN!43$%55%7!;7.%7$%0&!I31!0%0!0;44%!2/%7$!#!9$.;0A7#710/%$9A2#37%7!B3/$%!23!43$%55%/&

g7$/#71%7!#!$%7!9$6/;12%!4:71$%!;B!A.:5023B!4%$!^90$?/1C$7#71%7!31!:7$/#71%7!#!$%7"<=>WIJK"L!6%/%17%$%!9$.;0A7#71%7!B/;!*GW*'!2#5!@@W@,!%/!.#02!#!B#19/!,(&!I%!1/C77%!B;/.%/;71#.%/!%7!/%$9A2#37!31!$%!/C$%!%7!02#17#71!B/;!*GW*'!2#5!P*WPP&!\3/0A%55%7!#!9$.;0A7#71!0A?5M$%0!%7!A346#7%/%2!%BB%A2!;B!:7$/%2!1C$0A7#710D/;A0#0Z!:7$/%2!1C$7#7102#5$%5#71!31!%7!:7$/%2;/%;5;7.%7$%50%&

\#19/!,(!.#0%/Z!;2!9$.;0A7#71%7!02#1%/!#!%7A%52%!A34497%/!#!5;7$%2&!"2#17#71%7!#!9$.;0A7#71%7%/!B3/!$%!B5%02%!A34497%/!0;44%7B;5$%7$%!4%$!%7!023/!02#17#71!#!2#5BC/2!Q!4%$!^90$?/1C$M7#71&!K!$%!A34497%/Z!^.3/!02#17#71%7!#!9$6/;12!Q!4%$!^90$?/1C$7#71!%/!6%0A%$%7Z!0%0!#71%702#17#71!#!9$.;0A7#71&!I%2!0A?5$%0!D/#4:/2Z!;2!$%2!^;/!.:/%2!495#12!;2!B3/6%$/%!9$7?22%50%7!;BQ!#!^90$?/1C$7#71!.%$!65&;&!:7$/%2!1C$0A7#710D/;A0#0&

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Figur 15&!V%$9A2#37!#!A.:5023B9$.;0A7#71!#!B3/^35$!2#5!0U%7;/#94!*GW*'!B3/!0U%7;/#%/7%!*PWP@ZP'WP(Z!P(WP)Z!P)WP*Z!P*WPPZ!PPW@@!31!@@W@,&

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Reduktion i udvaskning

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4. Diskussion

4.1 ModellerI%!23!43$%55%/0!/%0952;2%/!6%/%17%2!DR!A34497#.%;9!;B.#1%/!0?02%4;2#0A!B/;!^#7;7$%7Z!#$%2"<=>WIJK"L!6%/%17%/!%7!4#7$/%!9$.;0A7#71!%7$!"KO!KKKN!43$%55%7&!\3/0A%55%7!#!/%0952;M2%/7%!0A?5$%0Z!;2!43$%55%/7%!%/!B3/0A%55#1%!4^2&!2#5!.#/A%4R$%!31!/%0D370!DR!X3/$Z!A5#4;Z!0:$M0A#B2%Z!QM1C$0A7#71!4&.&!>R!5;7$07#.%;9!%/!/%0952;2%/7%!$%/#43$!3.%//;0A%7$%!0;44%7B;5M$%7$%!0%2!#!B3/^35$!2#5Z!;2!$%/!;7.%7$2!23!9;B^:71#12!A;5#6/%/%$%!43$%55%/&

4.1.1 SIM IIIB modellen

I%7!%4D#/#0A%!43$%5!Y"KO!KKKN[!%/!6;0%/%2!DR!%2!023/2!;72;5!4;/A4R5#71%/!Y(@@!360%/.;2#37%/[1%77%4BC/2!$%50!#!T-->M34/R$%/7%!;B!IOd!31!$%50!#!B3/0A%55#1%!B3/0C1Z!X3/$.;7$097$%/0CM1%50%/!31!$/:7.;7$097$%/0C1%50%/!.%$!IF\&!V%0952;2%/!;B!9$.;0A7#71%7!6%/%17%2!4%$!$%7%4D#/#0A%!43$%5!%/!A7?22%2!2#5!$%!6%2#71%50%/Z!034!4R5#71%/7%!%/!1%77%4BC/2!97$%/&!I%22%!%/!%7B3/$%5!.%$!6%/%17#71!;B!9$.;0A7#71%7!97$%/!5#17%7$%!B3/^35$Z!^.3/!/%0952;2%/7%!B3/4%725#12!.#55#11%!2:2!DR!B;A2#0A%!.:/$#%/Z!4%7!%7!95%4D%!^.3/!$/#B20B3/^35$%7%!;B.#1%/!B/;!6%2#71%50%/7%B3/!4R5#71%/7%&

O;/A4R5#71%/!;B!9$.;0A7#71!A;7!.:/%!B3/697$%2!4%$!731%7!90#AA%/^%$!0D%U#%52!DR!5%/X3/$%YIX9/^990!k!F;U360%7Z!,PP'[&!QM1C$0A7#71!4%$!^90$?/M!31!^;7$%501C$7#71Z!$%/!#7$1R/!0346%0A/#.%7$%!D;/;4%2/%!#!"KO!KKKNM43$%55%7Z!%/!#AA%!4R52%!$;2;Z!4%7!#!4;71%!2#5B:5$%!1%7M7%407#25#1%!$;2;!B3/!4;/A%7Z!%02#4%/%2!DR!6;11/97$!;B!#72%/.#%b97$%/0C1%50%/&!I#00%!$;2;!A;7;B.#1%!6%2?$%5#12!B/;!$%7!B;A2#0A%!QM1C$0A7#71!#!4R5%D97A2%/7%!DR!4;/A%7!034!BC51%!;B!90#AMA%/^%$!.%$!1%77%407#20;71#.%50%7!31!.;/#;2#37!#!$30%/#71!#7$%7!B3/!4;/A%7&

I%2!%/!.;70A%5#12!;2!.9/$%/%Z!34!$%2!023/%!;72;5!360%/.;2#37%/!$%/!#7$1R/!#!$;2;1/97$5;1%2!6%M2?$%/Z!;2!$%/!B3/%A344%/!5#1%!4;71%!3.%/M!31!97$%/.9/$%/#71%/Z!0R5%$%0!;2!1%77%407#22%2!5#1M1%/!2:2!DR!$%7!0;7$%!.:/$#Z!%55%/!34!$%/!0A%/!%7!0?02%4;2#0A!3.%/MW97$%/.9/$%/#71!;B!%7A%52%%BB%A2%/0!6%2?$7#71!B3/!9$.;0A7#71%7&!V#0#A3%7!B3/!B%X5.9/$%/#71!%/!0;7$0?75#1.#0!02C/02!B3/!$%%BB%A2%/!#!43$%55%7Z!$%/!%/!A;5#6/%/%2!DR!6;11/97$!;B!/%5;2#.2!BR!360%/.;2#37%/!Y"#44%501;;/$!%2;5&Z!+@@@[&

d0#AA%/^%$%7!DR!$%!%7A%52%!%BB%A2%/!%/!3D1X3/2!#!43$%55%7!.%$!$%7!;DD/3A0#4%/%$%!0D/%$7#71&I%7!1%77%407#25#1%!90#AA%/^%$!DR!9$.;0A7#7107#.%;9%2!#!%2!0U%7;/#94!%/!.9/$%/%2!2#5!,EiZ!3190#AA%/^%$%7!DR!/%$9A2#37%7!#!9$.;0A7#71%7!4%55%4!23!0U%7;/#%/!2#5!#!1%77%407#2!,*i!Y</#M02%70%7Z!+@@@Z!D%/0&!A34&[&!I%!;71#.7%!90#AA%/^%$%/!%/!6;0%/%2!DR!$%7!.;/#;2#37Z!$%/!%/!#!$;2;M0:22%2Z!31!#7A59$%/%/!#AA%!90#AA%/^%$%7!D1;&!%7!%.2&!3.%/MW97$%/.9/$%/#71!;B!$%!%7A%52%!D;/;M4%2/%&

"%7%02!^;/!V%B01;;/$!%2!;5&!Y+@@,[!0;2!0DC/104R502%17!.%$!.;5#$#2%2%7!;B!$;2;1/97$5;1%2Z!034"KO!KKKN!43$%55%7!6?11%/!DR&!I%77%!.#$%7!B3/%5R!#AA%!DR!2#$0D97A2%2!B3/!4#$2.%X0%.;59%/#7M1%7!;B!HO>KKZ!31!$%/B3/!%/!/%0952;2%/7%!;B!"<=>WIJK"L!31!"KO!KKKN!43$%55%7!;7.%7$2!5#1%M.:/$#12&!I%/!1C/%0!$%09$%7!3D4:/A034!DRZ!;2!$%/!#!7:/.:/%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/!4%$!"KOKKKN!;7.%7$%0!%7!;B02/C47#71!6%/%17%2!4%$!IJK"LZ!^.3/!$%7!D32%72#%55%!B3/$;4D7#71!6%/%1M7%0!4%$!O;AA#7A!5#17#71%7!YO;AA#7AZ!,P')p!a;70%7Z!,P*G[Z!31!^.3/!$%/!;7.%7$%0!1;45%7%$6C/0A3//%A2#37%/!YJ55%/9D!k!O;$0%7Z!,P*([&

E(

4.1.2 SKEP/DAISY modellen"<=>!43$%55%7!6%/%17%/!.;7$M!31!QM6;5;7U%7!DR!4;/A7#.%;9!DR!6;11/97$!;B!1/97$5:11%7$%43$%56%/%17#71%/!1%77%4BC/2!4%$!IJK"L!43$%55%7!Ya;70%7!%2!;5&!,PP,[&!IJK"L!43$%55%7%/!%7!D/3U%03/#%72%/%2!43$%5Z!034!%/!A;5#6/%/%2!31!.;5#$%/%2!97$%/!%7!/:AA%!B3/0A%55#1%!;B1/CM$%MZ!A5#4;MZ!X3/$697$0M!31!QM1C$0A7#710B3/^35$&!V%0952;2%/7%!;B!#72%/7;2#37;5%!.;5#$%/#71%/^;/!.#02!13$%!/%0952;2%/!B3/!43$%55%7!YI#%A/u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a.3/!13$2!$%!0#495%/%$%!/%0952;2%/!;B0D%X5%/!$%!B;A2#0A%!B3/^35$!6RM$%!4%$!^%70?7!2#5!9$6?22%!31!QM9$.;0A7#71!;B^:71%/!;BZ!^.3/!13$2!43$%55%7!6%0A/#.%/!$%6#3531#0A%!31!B?0#0A%!B3/^35$!#!;2430B:/%MX3/$M.;7$MA.:5023BMD5;72%!0?02%4%2!1%77%4!.:A02MD%/#3$%7&

8%7%/%52!%/!$%/!%7!2%7$%70!2#5Z!;2!IJK"LM43$%55%7!3.%/.9/$%/%/!9$6?22%2!#!B3/^35$!2#5!7#.%;9%2#!D/;A0#0Z!31!$%/!%/!/#0#A3!B3/!%7!B3/!^CX!D5;72%3D2;1%50%!;B!Q&!I%2!0A?5$%0Z!;2!43$%55%7!A97!%/.;7$M!31!QM6%1/:70%2!31!#AA%!2;1%/!^CX$%!B3/!;7$/%!.:A026%1/:70%7$%!B;A23/%/!Y9A/9$2Z!0?1M$344%Z!4;71%5!DR!;7$/%!7://#710023BB%/!%7$!Q[&!I%/!%/!$%/B3/!0A%2!%7!2#5D;07#71!;B!$%!43$%5M6%/%17%$%!9$6?22%/!#!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/!#!B3/^35$!2#5!D/;A2#0A!3D7R%$%!9$M6?22%/!DR!;4207#.%;9&!8%7%/%52!4%$BC/%/!2#5D;07#71%7!;B!9$6?22%2Z!;2!9$.;0A7#71%7!65#.%/!02C/M/%Z!#$%2!#7$^35$%2!;B!A.:5023B!#!$%7!^C02%$%!;B1/C$%!65#.%/!4#7$/%&!O%23$%7!2#5!9$6?22%2#5D;0M7#71!#7$%6:/%/Z!;2!A.:5023B!3D2;1%2!;B!$%7!A37A9//%/%7$%!;B1/C$%!Y/;X1/:00%2[!BC/%0!2#56;1%!2#5X3/$%7!#!B3/6#7$%50%!4%$!X3/$6%^;7$5#71%7!34!%B2%/R/%2&!<.:5023BZ!$%/!#AA%!3D2;1%0!;B!%7!;BM1/C$%!#!.:A02D%/#3$%7Z!.#5!.%$!^C02!97$%/!73/4;5%!6%2#71%50%/!%72%7!.:/%!65%.%2!3D2;1%2!;B!%79A/9$20;B1/C$%Z!.:/%!65%.%2!#7$6?11%2!#!4#A/36#%5!6#34;00%!%55%/!.:/%!#!X3/$%7!DR!93/1;7#0AB3/4&!I%2!3/1;7#0A!697$7%!A.:5023B!.#5!#!%B2%/R/0D%/#3$%7!4#7%/;5#0%/%0Z!31!A;7!$%/.%$!3D2;M1%0!DR!7?!%55%/!9$.;0A%0!#!$%7!%B2%/BC51%7$%!;B02/C47#710D%/#3$%&!H%$!9$6?22%2#5D;07#71%7;72;1%0!$%2Z!;2!$%2!4%02%!A.:5023B!3D2;1%0!;B!/;X1/:00%2!31!BC/%0!2#56;1%!2#5!X3/$%7!#!%B2%/R/%2!DR0;44%!4R$%!034!D5;72%4;2%/#;5%!B/;!9A/9$2!2#56;1%BC/%0!#!B3/6#7$%50%!4%$!X3/$6%;/6%X$7#71!#%B2%/R/%2&!I%7!;7.%7$2%!4%23$%!2#5!9$6?22%2#5D;07#71!4%$BC/%/!%7!/#0#A3!B3/!%7!97$%/.9/$%/#71;B!4#7%/;50A!Q!#!X3/$%7!%B2%/!^C02!31!/#0#A3!B3/!%7!97$%/.9/$%/#71!;B!QM9$.;0A7#71%7!#!$%7%B2%/BC51%7$%!;B02/C47#710D%/#3$%&!H%$!9$6?22%2#5D;07#71%7!%/!$%/!#AA%!0#AA%/^%$!B3/Z!;2D5;72%/7%0!QM3D2;1%50%!A3//#1%/%0!B95$2!9$&!I%22%!^;/!#!43$%56%/%17#71%/7%!0;7$0?75#1.#04%$BC/2!%7!3.%/.9/$%/#71!;B!QM3D2;1%50%7!31!2#50.;/%7$%!%7!97$%/.9/$%/#71!;B!QM9$.;0AM7#71%7&

I%/!%/!%7!2%7$%70!2#5Z!;2!IJK"L!97$%/.9/$%/%/!$%7#2/#B#A;2#37%7Z!^.#5A%2!#!43$0:27#71!2#5!QM3D2;1%50%7!4%$BC/%/!%7!3.%/.9/$%/#71!;B!QM9$.;0A7#71%7Z!4%7!0#495%/#71%7!;B!$%7#2/#B#A;2#3M7%7!%/!#!$%2!^%5%!2;1%2!4%1%2!90#AA%/!Y<?55#7106:A!%2!;5&Z!+@@@[&!"<=>WIJK"L!6%/%17#71%/7%%/!0R5%$%0!310R!6%^:B2%2!4%$!731%7!90#AA%/^%$&

4.2 Landsdækkende scenarieberegningerQR/!43$%56%/%17#71%/!;B!A.:5023B9$.;0A7#71!0A;5!3D0A;5%/%0!2#5!5;7$07#.%;9Z!%/!$%2!7C$.%7M$#12!;2!02;7$;/$#0%/%!%7!/:AA%!9A%7$2%!B;A23/%/&!I%2!$/%X%/!0#1!34!$/#B205%$%50%Z!X3/$6%;/6%X$M

E)

7#71Z!1C$7#710^R7$2%/#71Z!9$6/#717#7104%23$%/!4.&Z!$%/!.;/#%/%/!B/;!4;/A!2#5!4;/A&!I#00%B;A23/%/!A;7!^;.%!023/!6%2?$7#71!B3/!$%7!;A29%55%!02C//%50%!;B!9$.;0A7#71%7!DR!4;/A7#.%;9Z4%7!^;/!0;7$0?75#1.#0!4#7$/%!6%2?$7#71!.%$!6%/%17#71!DR!A34497%M!31!5;7$07#.%;9Z!^.3//%0952;2%/7%!0944%/%0!B3/!4;71%!;/%;5%/&

K!6%/%17#71%/7%!4%$!"KO!KKKN!43$%55%7!%/!$%2!90#AA%/2Z!#!^.#5A%2!34B;71!$%/!2;1%0!^CX$%!B3/Z;2!$%/!0#$%7!*GW*'!%/!0A%2!%7!4;/A;72!:7$/#71!#!9$6/#717#710D/;A0#0!;B!^90$?/1C$7#71Z!$%/BC/%/!2#5Z!;2!;4437#;AB3/$;4D7#71%7!.%$!9$6/#717#71!%/!/%$9U%/%2!4%$!U;&!+@&@@@!2!Q!Y<?5M5#7106:A!%2!;5&Z!+@@@[&!I%/!%/!$%/B3/!/#0#A3!B3/Z!;2!"KO!KKKN!43$%55%7!3.%/.9/$%/%/!9$.;0AM7#710/%$9A2#37%7Z!#$%2!9$1;710D97A2%2!Y9$.;0A7#71%7!#!*GW*'!0U%7;/#%2[!A;7!.:/%!3.%/.9/$%M/%2&

4.2.1 Landsdækkende scenarieberegninger og beregninger i LOOP-områderne

I%7!%4D#/#0A%!43$%5!"KO!KKKN!%/!65%.%2!;7.%7$2!2#5!6%/%17#71%/!;B!QM9$.;0A7#71%7!B/;T-->M34R/$%/7%!Y8/;72!%2!;5&Z!+@@@[Z!4%70!6R$%!"<=>WIJK"L!31!"KO!KKKN!%/!65%.%2!;7M.%7$2!#!B3/6#7$%50%!4%$!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!6%/%17#71%/&!K!2;6%5!(!%/!2#5BC/2!Q!4%$!^;7$%50M!31^90$?/1C$7#71!0;42!QM9$.;0A7#71!B/;!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/!31!#!T-->M34/R$%/7%!.#02!B3/!D%/#3$%7!,PP@WP,M,PPPW@@&

Tabel 6&!8%77%407#25#1!B3/6/91!;B!^;7$%50M!31!^90$?/1C$7#71!0;42!43$%56%/%17%2!9$.;0AM7#71!lA1!QW^;m!#!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/7%!31!#!6%/%17#71%/7%!B3/!T;7$3.%/.R1M7#7103D5;7$%7%!Y8/;72!%2!;5&Z!+@@@[&f/ P@WP,v P'WP( P(WP) P)WP* P*WPP PPW@@

Landsdækkende beregningerQ&!a;7$%501C$7#71& ,G+ ,,G ,@' ,@' ,@G P*Q&a90$?/1C$7#71q P@ ** *P P@ P@ P@Q!B#A0%/#71&!"#4!N ,( ,) ,) ,) ,) ,)Q!B#A0%/#71&!I;#0? ( ) ) ) ) )Q!9$.;0A7#71&!"#4!N! P' )) )G )' )G ),Q!9$.;0A7#71&!I;#0? *( )( )+ )E )+ (P

Landovervågningsoplande (LOOP)beregningerQ!a;7$%501C$7#71& ,+( PP P+ P' P' *EQ!a90$?/1C$7#71 P' ,@G ,@, P@ *P P)Q!B#A0%/#71!"#4!N ,* ,( ,+ ,G ,G ,'Q!9$.;0A7#71&!"#4!N ,@* *G *@ )P *, )'q!K7A590#.!05;4!31!#7$902/#;BB;5$&v!=A02/;!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/!1%77%4BC/2!4%$!0;44%!;/%;5;7.%7$%50%!31!2#5BC/2^90$?/1C$7#71!034!*PWP@&!a;7$%501C$7#71!%/!;B02%42!4%$!P@WP,!$;2;

I%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!6%/%17#71%/!B3/!P@WP,!%/!1%77%4BC/2!97$%/!B3/9$0:27#71!;BZ!;2!;/%;5;7.%7M$%50%7!31!1C$0A7#71%7!4%$!^90$?/1C$7#71!%/!$%7!0;44%!034!#!*PWP@&!K!0U%7;/#%2!%/!^;7$%50M1C$7#710B3/6/91%2!;B02%42!4%$!$%2!;A29%55%!B3/6/91!#!,PP@!YEP'&@@@!2!Q!#B51&!T;7$6/91002;2#M02#AA%7Z!I;74;/A0!"2;2#02#AZ!,PP@[&

E*

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

K!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!6%/%17#71%/!4%$!"KO!KKKN!31!"<=>WIJK"L!1%77%4BC/%0!43$%56%/%1M7#71%/7%!DR!%7A%52%!o43$%5M6%$/#B202?D%/o!DR!A34497%7#.%;9Z!034!/%D/:0%72%/%/!%2!;72;5%X%7$344%!#!A34497%7&!K!T-->M34/R$%/7%!1%77%4BC/%0!6%/%17#71%/7%!4%$!"KO!KKKN!B3/$%!;A29%55%!6%$/#B2%/!#!^.%/2!%7A%52!34/R$%&!I%77%!B3/0A%5!#!4%23$%!^;/!6%2?$7#71!B3/!6%/%1M7#71%7!;B!$%2!1%7%/%55%!QM7#.%;9Z!$%/!#7$1R/!#!"KO!KKKN!43$%56%/%17#71%/7%&!8%7%/%52!.#5!$%/.:/%!%7!02C//%!.;/#;2#37!#!QM7#.%;9!#!T-->!6%/%17#71%/7%!%7$!#!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!6%/%17#7M1%/&!I%77%!.;/#;2#37!4%$BC/%/Z!;2!9$.;0A7#7107#.%;9%2!31!/%$9A2#37%7!3.%/!2#$%7!A;7!.:/%02C//%!#!T-->!6%/%17#71%/7%&

Q%$1;71%7!#!2#5BC/2!Q!4%$!^;7$%501C$7#71Z!^90$?/1C$7#71!31!QMB#A0%/#71!#!D%/#3$%7!B/;!P@WP,2#5!PPW@@!%/!2#50;44%7!GE!A1!QW^;!#!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!6%/%17#71%/!31!342/%72!$%2!0;44%!YGGA1!QW^;[!#!T-->M34/R$%/7%&!V%$9A2#37%7!#!9$.;0A7#71!#!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!43$%56%/%17#7M1%/!4%$!"KO!KKKN!%/!+G!A1!QW^;Z!4%70!/%$9A2#37%7!#!9$.;0A7#71%7!#!T-->M!34/R$%/7%!4%$0;44%!43$%5!%/!EE!A1!QW^;&!I%7!6%/%17%$%!9$.;0A7#710/%$9A2#37!9$1C/!^%7^35$0.#0!U;&''i!31!U;&!)'i!;B!7%$1;71%7!#!2#5BC/2!Q&!\3/0A%55%7!#!"KO!KKKN!6%/%17#71%/7%!A;7!9$!3.%/!$%7:.72%!.;/#;2#37%/!#!Q!1C$7#7107#.%;9!310R!0A?5$%0!B3/0A%55%!#!0:$0A#B2%/&!K!"<=>WIJK"L6%/%17#71%/7%!%/!/%$9A2#37%7!6%/%17%2!2#5!,)!A1!QW^;!0.;/%7$%!2#5!%7!1%77%407#25#1!/%$9A2#37DR!EPi!;B!7%$1;71%7!#!2#5BC/2!Q&

!"D%U#%52!#!P@WP,M0U%7;/#%2!%/!$%/!B3/0A%5!4%55%4!"KO!KKKN!/%0952;2%/7%!B3/!T-->M34/R$%/7%31!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!/%0952;2%/!6%/%17%2!4%$!"<=>WIJK"L&!\3/0A%55%7!0A?5$%0!3.%/.%X%7$%Z;2!43$%55%/7%!/%;1%/%/!B3/0A%55#12!DR!QM1C$0A7#71Z!;/%;5;7.%7$%50%!31!034!2#$5#1%/%!7:.72;4437#;AB3/$;4D7#71%7Z!034!$%/!0?02%4;2#0A!A3//#1%/%0!B3/!#!"<=>WIJK"L!6%/%17#71%/7%&

4.2.2 Klimanormalisering af SIM IIIB beregningerne

=7!;7$%7!R/0;1!2#5!B3/0A%55%7!#!9$.;0A7#7107#.%;9%2!B3/!"KO!KKKN!6%/%17#71%/7%!DR!5;7$0D5;731!#!T-->M34/R$%/7%!A;7!.:/%!4%23$%7!2#5!A5#4;73/4;5#0%/#71&!I%/!%/!6R$%!B3/0A%5!#!$%!R/Z$%/!%/!;7.%7$2!#!A5#4;73/4;5#0%/#71%7!31!#!$%7!;7.%7$2%!4%23$%&!K!"KO!KKKN!43$%55%7!6%/%1M7%0!A5#4;%BB%A2%7!9$!B/;!$%7!R/5#1%!;B02/C47#71!;B!.;7$!B/;!/3$]37%7!XB&!+&G&,&!JB02/C47#710M%BB%A2%7!%/!#!"KO!KKKN!43$%55%7!%7!4952#D5#A;2#.!%BB%A2&!";44%7^:71%7!4%55%4!;B02/C47#7M1%7!31!$%7!/%5;2#.%!%BB%A2!DR!9$.;0A7#71%7!#!"KO!KKKN!%/!.#02!#!B#19/!,)&!JB02/C47#71!31!;BM02/C47#710%BB%A2%7!DR!9$.;0A7#71%7!%/!.#02!.%$!B%4!;B02/C47#71%/!Y+@@Z!E@@Z!G@@Z!'@@!31!(@@44WR/[&!\3/0A%55%7!#!4%23$%7!2#5!A5#4;73/4;5#0%/#71!0A;5!B#7$%0!#!6%/%17#71%7!;B!$%7!A5#4;M73/4;5#0%/%$%!;B02/C47#710%BB%A2&!>/#7U#DD%2!#!A5#4;73/4;5#0%/#71%7!;B!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%6%/%17#71%/!%/Z!;2!$%7!1%77%407#25#1%!%BB%A2!Y• !DR!LM;A0%7[!;B!;B02/C47#71%7!4;/A%/%2!B3/!$%B%4!;B02/C47#71%/!4%$!;7.%7$%0!2#5!;2!6%/%17%!%7!A5#4;73/4;5#0%/%2!9$.;0A7#71&!K!6%/%1M7#71%/7%!B3/!T-->M34/R$%/7%!;7.%7$%0!;B02/C47#710%BB%A2%7!.%$!$%7!1%77%407#25#1%!;BM02/C47#71!2#5!;2!6%/%17%!$%7!A5#4;73/4;5#0%/%$%!%BB%A2!DR!9$.;0A7#71%7&!K!%A0%4D5%2!%/!%BMB%A2%7!@Z*'!.%$!$%7!1%77%407#25#1%!;B02/C47#71!YG@@!44WR/[Z!31!1%77%407#20%BB%A2%7!.%$!$%B%4!;B02/C47#71%/!%/!@Z*,!YB#19/!,)[&!8%7%/%52!6%2?$%/!$%2Z!;2!4%23$%7!;7.%7$2!#!$%!5;7$0$:AMA%7$%!6%/%17#71%/!A370%A.%72!1#.%/!%2!5;.%/%!A5#4;73/4;5#0%/%2!9$.;0A7#7107#.%;9!%7$!4%M

EP

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Figur 17&!";44%7^:71!4%55%4!;B02/C47#71!31!$%7!/%5;2#.%!%BB%A2!;B!;B02/C47#71%7!DR!9$M.;0A7#71!#!"KO!KKKN!43$%55%7&!=BB%A2%7!.%$!%7!;B02/C47#71!DR!+@@Z!E@@Z!G@@Z!'@@!31!(@@44WR/!%/!.#02!4%$!!&!>97A2%2!Y• [!DR!LM;A0%7!;71#.%/!1%77%407#20%BB%A2%7!DR!9$.;0A7#71%7;B!$%!B%4!;B02/C47#71%/&

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4.3 Landsberegninger i relation til Vandmiljøplan II evalueringend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3 233 /33 133 N33 '333 '233 '/33

Afstrømning [mm/år]

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Tabel 7&!d$.;0A7#71!DR!5;7$0D5;7!6%/%17%2!4%$!"KO!KKKN!31!"<=>!l,@@@!2!Qm&"U%7;/#94 *GW*' *PWP@ P'WP( P(WP) P)WP* P*WPP PPW@@ @@W@,"KO!KKKN +(' +'( +,@ +@+ +@, ,P* ,P, ,*)"<=>WIJK"L +GP +++ +@) ,P' ,P' ,PE ,*G ,)P

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G,

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G+

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GE

6. ReferencerJ55%/9DZ!>&!k!O;$0%7!a&!,P*(&!-7!2^%!U3//%U2#37!3B!5#w9#$!D/%U#D;2#37&!Q3/$#U!a?$/3531?!,)Z+E)M+'@&

NC/1%0%7Z!`&I&Z!<?55#7106:AZ!J&!k!IX9/^990Z!F&!,PP)&!O3$%56%/%17%2!A.:5023B9$.;0A7#71!B/;5;7$6/91%2&!">!/;DD3/2!7/&!,P&!I;74;/A0!F3/$6/910\3/0A7#71&!((!DD&

I;74;/A0!"2;2#02#A&!T;7$6/91002;2#02#A!,P*'Z!,P*PZ!,PP@Z!,PP(Z!,PP)Z!,PP*Z!,PPP&

I#%AA/u1%/Z!N&Z!"x7$1%/;2^Z!I&Z!<%/0%6;94Z!<&`&!k!OUH3?Z!`&y&!,PP'&!H;5#$#2?!3B!;1/3%U3M0?02%4!43$%50&!J!U34D;/#037!3B!/%09520!3B!$#BB%/%72!43$%50!;DD5#%$!23!2^%!0;4%!$;2;!0%2&!=MU3531#U;5!O3$%55#71!*,Z!EM+P&

IX9/^990Z!F&!k!F;U360%7Z!-&a&!,PP'&!`34D;/#037!3B!U%/;4#U!09U2#37!U9D0!;7$!<`5!%c2/;U2#37B3/!2^%!$%2%/4#7;2#37!3B!7#2/;2%!#7!03#5&!=9/3D%;7!F39/7;5!3B!"3#5!"U#%7U%!G(Z!E*)MEP'&

8/;72Z!V&Z!N5#U^%/MO;2^#%0%7Z!8&Z!FC/1%70%7Z!F&-&Z!<53DD%763/1M"A/940;1%/Z!N&Z!</37.;71ZN&Z!F%70%7Z!>&8&Z!>%$%/0%7Z!O&!k!V;04900%7Z!>&!+@@@&!T;7$3.%/.R17#7103D5;7$%!,PPP&Q-HJ!+@@E&!JB$%5#71!B3/!H;7$5C60CA3531#Z!I;74;/A0!31!8/C75;7$0!8%3531#0A%!d7$%/0CM1%50%&!\;15#1!/;DD3/2!B/;!IOd!7/&!EEGZ!,G)!DD&

8/;72!V&Z!N5#U^%/MO;2^#%0%7Z!8&Z!J7$%/0%7!a&=&Z!T;96%5!J&Z!>;950%7Z!K&Z!F%70%7!>&8&!k!V;0M4900%7Z!>&!,PP)&!T;7$3.%/.R17#7103D5;7$%&!H;7$4#5XCD5;7%70!-.%/.R17#710D/31/;4!,PP(&I;74;/A0!O#5XC97$%/0C1%50%/&!\;15#1!/;DD3/2!B/;!IOd!7/&!+,@&!,G,!DD&

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GG

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F%70%7Z!S&Z!>5;963/1Z!\&!k!"C/%70%7Z!N&!,PP)&!F3/$6/9104%2%3/3531#0A!R/03.%/0#12!,PP(&!">/;DD3/2!+,Z!"2;2%70!>5;72%;.50B3/0C1&!*E!DD&

F%70%7Z!S&Z!>5;963/1Z!\&!k!"C/%70%7Z!N&!,PPP&!F3/$6/9104%2%3/3531#0A!R/03.%/0#12!,PP)&!IF\/;DD3/2!7/&!,,'&!I;74;/A0!F3/$6/910\3/0A7#71&!')!DD&

<?55#7106:AZ!J&Z!NC/1%0%7Z!`&I&Z!J7$%/0%7Z!F&O&Z!>3950%7Z!a&I&Z!NC/02#71Z!`&\&Z!H#72^%/Z\&>&Z!a%#$4;77Z!S&Z!FC/1%0%7Z!H&Z!"#44%501;;/$Z!"&=&Z!Q#%50%7Z!F&Z!`^/#02%70%7Z!N&S&Z!8/;72ZV&!k!N5#U^%/MO;2^#%0%7Z!8&!+@@@&!<.:5023B6;5;7U%/!#!$;70A!5;7$6/91&!O;/AM!31!"2;5$6;5;7MU%/&!I;74;/A0!F3/$6/910\3/0A7#71!31!I;74;/A0!O#5XC97$%/0C1%50%/&M!d$1#.%2!;B!I;74;/A0O#5XC97$%/0C1%50%/&!)GDD&

T;7$6/9104#7#02%/#%2Z!,PP,&!N:/%$?12#12!T;7$6/91&!e!=7!2%A7#0A!/%$%1C/%50%Z!E((!DD&

T;7$6/9104#7#02%/#%2Z!,PPG&!N%A%7$21C/%50%!34!1/C77%!4;/A%/Z!0:$0A#B2%M!31!1C$7#710D5;7%/0;42!1C$7#710/%170A;6%/!#!X3/$6/91%2&!T;7$6/9104#7#02%/#%20!6%A%7$21C/%50%!7/&!,@,Z!G&!B%M6/9;/!,PPG&

O;$0%7Z!a&N&!,P**&!I#02/#69;2#37!3B!0D/#71!6;/5%?!/3320!#7!I;7#0^!03#50!3B!$#BB%/%72!2%c29/%;7$!97$%/!$#BB%/%72!U5#4;2#U!U37$#2#370&!>5;72!;7$!"3#5!**Z!E,MGE&

O;AA#7AZ!8&\&!,P')&!=A];4%73!$%!5;!B3/495;!$%!>%74;7&!V%D/&!Q%2^&!F&!J1/#U&!"U#&!'Z!+P@ME@'&

O#5XC4#7#02%/#%2Z!,P*)&!a;7$5#710D5;7!43$!B3/9/%7#71!;B!$%2!$;70A%!.;7$4#5XC!4%$!7:/#710M0;52%Z!O#5XC4#7#02%/#%2Z!X;79;/!,P*)Z!<C6%7^;.7&

O#5XC02?/%50%7Z!,P*G&!Q>3M/%$%1C/%50%7&!V;DD3/2Z!O#5XC02?/%50%7&

O#5XC02?/%50%7Z!,PP@&!H;7$4#5XCMP@&!";45%2!02;290!3.%/!.;7$4#5XC%2!#!I;74;/A&!V%$%1C/%50%B/;!O#5XC02?/%50%7!Q/&!,&

Q#%50%7Z!a&!N5#U^%/MO;2^#%0%7Z!8&!F%70%7Z!`&!k!=/5;7$0%7Z!O&!,PP+&!O3$%56%/%17#71!;B!$%7/%1#37;5%!A.:5023B9$.;0A7#71&!\;15#1!/;DD3/2!B/;!IOd!7/&!,(&

-5%0%7Z!F&=&Z!NCU^%/Z!>&<&Z!F%70%7Z!S&!+@@@&!`34D;/#037!3B!0U;5%0!3B!U5#4;2%!;7$!03#5!$;2;!B3/;11/%1;2#71!0#495;2%$!?#%5$0!3B!b#72%/!b^%;2!#7!I%74;/A&!J1/#U9529/%!=U30?02%40!k!=7M.#/374%72!*+Z!+,EM++*&

>%$%/0%7Z!`&!f&!,PP,&!-.%/0#12!3.%/!5;7$0B3/0C1%7%!,PP+&!T;7$0A3723/%2!B3/!>5;72%;.5Z!"A%XM6?&

>5;72%$#/%A23/;2%2Z!,P*G&!,**PZ!,PP'Z!,PP(Z!,PP)Z!,PP*Z!,PPPZ!+@@@&!>%/0&!<34497#A;2#37&

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>5;963/1Z!\&!k!-5%0%7Z!F&=&!,PP,&!d$.#A5#71!31!.;5#$%/#71!;B!43$%55%7!4;/A.;7$!2#5!.;7M$#71002?/#71!#!5;7$6/91%2&!N%/%27#71!7/&!"!+,,E&!"2;2%70!>5;72%;.50B3/0C1&!,@E!DD&

V%B01;;/$Z!F&`Z!a;70%7Z!"&!k!a%7/#A0%7Z!a&F&!+@@,&!>/365%4%/!4%$!.;7$6;5;7U%!31!495#1%A370%A.%70%/!B3/!6%/%17#71%7!;B!7#2/;29$.;0A7#71%7&!I#0A90#3703D5:1&

"#44%501;;/$Z!"&=&!,PP*&!S^%!%BB%U2!3B!U/3DZ!QM5%.%5Z!03#5!2?D%!;7$!$/;#7;1%!37!7#2/;2%!5%M;U^#71!B/34!I;7#0^!03#5&!"3#5!d0%!;7$!O;7;1%4%72!,GZ!E@ME(&

"#44%501;;/$Z!"&=&!,PP,&!=02#4%/#71!;B!B97A2#37%/!B3/!A.:5023B9$.;0A7#71&!<.:5023B9$.;0AM7#71%7!034!B97A2#37!;B!A.:5023B2#5BC/05%7!B/;!B3/0A%55#1%!;B1/C$%/!$?/A%2!DR!0;7$X3/$!31!5%/MX3/$&!J77%c!+!#!V9$%&

"#44%501;;/$Z!"&=&Z!</#02%70%7Z!<&Z!J7$%/0%7Z!a&=&Z!8/;72Z!VZ!FC/1%70%7Z!F&-&!k!j02%/1R/$Za&!+@@@&!=4D#/#0A!43$%5!2#5!6%/%17#71!;B!A.:5023B9$.;0A7#71!B/;!/3$]37%7&!IF\!/;DD3/2!7/&E+!O;/A6/91&!I;74;/A0!F3/$6/910\3/0A7#71&!()!DD&

"4#2^Z!>&Z!"4#2^Z!F&d&Z!>3.50%7Z!I&"&Z!OU8#55Z!y&N&Z!J/;^Z!F&V&O&Z!`^%/23.Z!-&8&Z!`35%4;7Z<&Z!\/;7A3Z!d&Z!\/35#71Z!"&Z!F%7A#7037Z!I&"&Z!F%70%7Z!T&"&Z!<%55?Z!V&a&Z!<5%#7M8977%b#%AZ!a&Z<34;/3.Z!J&"&Z!T#Z!`&Z!O35#7;Z!F&J&=&Z!O9%55%/Z!S&Z!>;/237Z!y&F&Z!S^3/75%?Z!F&a&O&!ky#2^43/%Z!J&>&!,PP)&!J!U34D;/#037!3B!2^%!D%/B3/4;7U%!3B!7#7%!03#5!3/1;7#U!4;22%/!43$%50Z90#71!$;2;0%20!B/34!0%.%7!5371M2%/4!%cD%/#4%720&!8%3$%/4;!*,Z!,'EM++'&

"2;2%70!>5;72%;.50B3/0C1&!,P*P&!a90$?/1C$7#71!31!$%70!;7.%7$%50%Z!+&!/%.#$%/%$%!9$1;.%&N%/%27#71!7/&!"!,*@PZ!,'@!DD&

S^340%7Z!>&`&!,P*P&!"5:2;72;5Z!A.:5023B4:71$%/!31!.;7$#71!#!;54&!/;X1/:0&!N%/%27#71!7/&!"+@+(Z!"2;2%70!>5;72%;.50B3/0C1Z!,@E!DD&

G(

BILAG 1

Tabel 1&!O:71$%/!31!0;44%70:27#71!;B!B3/0A%55#1%!1C$7#7102?D%/!;7.%7$2!#!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%43$%56%/%17#71%/&N/9102?D% <.:16/91 ".#7%6/91

8C$7#710S?D%

\;02"2;5$1C$7#71

8?55% \;0202;5$1C$7#71

8?55%

iM2C/023B +@&@, (&'+ ++&@, G&@+

`WQ!B3/^35$!#!2C/023B

,P&(, ,@&@+ ,'&,, E&,+

<1!Q!W!237!1C$7#71& '&' G&) *&+ (&E<1!QMQaGW237!1C$7#71 ,&G +&) +&' G&G

,!"2;2%70!>5;72%;.50B3/0C1!Y,P*P[&+!>%$%/0%7!Y,PP,[

Tabel 2&!<.:5023B1C$7#71073/4%/!;7.%7$2!#!3D02#55#71!;B!1C$7#710D5;7%/!#!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%43$%56%/%17#71%/!B3/!P'WP(Z!P(WP)&t@@W@,&

JB1/C$% <.:5023B73/4";7$X3/$<1!QW^;

<.:5023B73/4T%/X3/$<1!QW^;

HR/6?1!^%50:$ ,'@ ,'@

\3$%//3%/ +@@ ,P'

HR/6?1 ,,( ,@P

H%$.;/%7$%!/;X1/:0 ,E@ ,E@

V;X1/:0!31!A5C.%/1/:0!9$5:1 ,@@ ,@@

V;X1/:0!31!A5C.%/1/:0!05:2 E'@ E'@

H#72%/6?1 ,') ,')

H#72%/^.%$%!B3/B/912!:/2%/Z!.#72%//;D0!31!1/:0& ,'@ ,((

H#72%/^.%$%!B3/B/912!A3/7 ,)@ ,*(

\/C1/:0 ,E@ ,E@

g/2%/ @ @

N/;A @ @

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Tabel 3&!<346#7;2#37%7!4%55%4!X3/$2?D%/!31!97$%/X3/$!;71#.%2!4%$!B;/.%A3$%/!31!$%!;7.%7$2%X3/$2?D%/!#!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/&\;/.%A3$%

-.%/X3/$%7@M+@U4MM

d7$%/X3/$%7+@M,@@!U4

F3/$2?D%FN!7/&

F3/$2?D%70V3$]37%A;D;U#2%244

\A, 8/3.0;7$%2!X3/$ ";7$%2 FN, !)P44

\A, 8/3.0;7$%2!X3/$ T%/%2 FNG ,(+44

\A+ \#70;7$%2!X3/$ ";7$%2W5%/%2 FNG ,(+44

\AE 8/3.!5%/65;7$%2!0;7$X3/$ ";7$%2 FNE ,G)44

\AE 8/3.!5%/65;7$%2!0;7$X3/$ T%/%2 FN( +@'44

\AE \#7!5%/65;7$%2!0;7$X3/$ ";7$%2 FNE ,G)44

\AE \#7!5%/65;7$%2!0;7$X3/$ T%/%2 FN( +@'44

\AG 8/3.!0;7$65;7$%2!5%/X3/$ ";7$%2 FNG ,(+44

\AG 8/3.!0;7$65;7$%2!5%/X3/$ T%/%2 FN( +@'44

\A' T%/X3/$ T%/%2 FN( +@'44

\A( ".:/!T%/X3/$ 5%/%2 FN( +@'44

\A) a9490X3/$ ";7$%2W5%/%2 FNE ,G)44

\A* <;5A!X3/$ ";7$%2W5%/%2 FN( +@'44

G*

Tabel 4&!<346#7;2#37%/!;B!0:$0A#B2%Z!$%/!#7$1R/!#!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/!6%02RM%7$%!;B!6/9102?D%Z!;B1/C$%Z!B3/B/912!31!%B2%/;B1/C$%&!N/9102?D% "<=>M

JB1/C$%!7/&\3/B/912 JB1/C$% =B2%/;B1/C$%

<.:1 , H#72%/^.%$% \3$%//3%/ HR/6?1".#7% +' H#72%/^.%$% "9AA%/!/3%/ HR/6?1

".#7% ++ HR/6?1 <;/23B5%/ HR/6?1

<.:1 ' H#72%/^.%$% HR/6?1!^%50:$ V;X1/:0!9$5:1

<.:1 E+ H#72%/^.%$% g/2%/!^%50:$ <5C.%/!9$5:1

<.:1 E, g/2%/!^%50:$ <5C.%/1/:0 <5C.%/!1/:0

<.:1 + HR/6?1!^%50:$ 8/:0 8/:0

<.:1 E 8/:0 8/:0 H#72%/^.%$%&

<.:1 +P <5C.%/ H#72%/^.%$%&

<.:1 G H%$.&!8/:0

<5C.%/H%$.&1/:0 H%$.&!8/:0

<.:1 ( \3$%//3%/ HR/6?1 g/2%/

".#7% +' "9AA%//3%/ HR/6?1 H#72%//;D0".#7% ,' H#72%/^.%$% HR/6?1<.:1 * H#72%/^.%$% H#72%/6?1".#7% ++ <;/23B5%/ g/2%/".#7% +* HR/6?1 HR/6?1<.:1W0.#7% )W,G HR/6?1 H#72%//;D0".#7% +E H#72%/^.%$% HR/6?1<.:1 ,, 8/:0

HR/6?1HR/6?1HR/6?1HR/6?1H#72%/6?1H#72%/^.%$%H#72%/^.%$% HR/6?1

<.:1 ,E g/2%/ H#72%/^.%$% \3$%//3%/

".#7% ,P g/2%/ H#72%/^.%$% H#72%/^.%$%

".#7% ,* H#72%//;D0 g/2%/<.:1 ,@ H#72%//;D0 HR/6?1

<.:1W0.#7 PW,) H#72%/6?1 H#72%/^.%$%

<.:1W0.#7 ,+W+@ HR/6?1 H#72%/^.%$%

<.:1W0.#7 G'M, N?1!4&!9$5:1 H#72%/^.%$%<.:1W0.#7 G'M+ N/;A

H#72%/^.%$%H#72%/^.%$%H#72%//;D0g/2%/,!R/0!6/;AN/;A

N/;A

GP

BILAG 2

Beregningsprincipper anvendt i opskaleringsmodellenK!6#5;1%2!1%77%41R0!$%!2/%!2/#7!#!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/!XB&!B#19/!,&!>/#7U#DD%/7%#!^.%/2!2/#7!%/!%A0%4D5#B#U%/%2!.%$!6%/%17#71%/!4%$!$;2;!B/;!%7!9$.;512!A34497%!B3/!R/%2,P*P&!K!2/#7!,!3D02#55%0!0:$0A#B2%/!DR!B#/%!43$%5M6%$/#B202?D%/!#!A34497%7&!K!2/#7!+!3D02#55%02#5^C/%7$%!1C$7#710D5;7%/&!K!2/#7!E!1%77%4BC/%0!6%/%17#71%/!;B!9$6?22%!0;42!.;7$M!31!QM6;5;7U%!4%$!"<=>WIJK"L!DR!6;11/97$!;B!0:$0A#B2%/!31!1C$7#710D5;7%/Z!$%/!%/!3D02#55%2!#!2/#7,!31!+&

K!A34497%%A0%4D5%2!;7.%7$%0!;420$;2;!B/;!5;7$6/91002;2#02#AA%7!B/;!,P*P!.%$!3D02#55#71%7!;B0:$0A#B2%/!31!1C$7#710D5;7%/&!I%2!6%4:/A%0Z!;2!%A0%4D5%2!#AA%!;7.%7$%/!A34497%$;2;!B3/;/%;5;7.%7$%50%!31!àVZ!034!.%$!6%/%17#71%/7%!;B!0U%7;/#%/7%!#!D%/#3$%7!P'WP(M@@W@,!0U%7;M/#%/7%&!I%/!2;1%0!9$1;710D97A2!#!$%!1%7%/%55%!0;44%7^:71%!4%55%4!;/%;5;7.%7$%50%!31!;72;5A.:1!B97$%2!B3/!^%5%!;42%2!#!3D02#55#71%7!;B!0:$0A#B2%/!#!A34497%/7%!#7$%7!B3/!;42%2&!K!6%/%1M7#71%/7%!;B!0U%7;/#%/7%!#!D%/#3$%7!P'WP(M@@W@,!;7.%7$%0!$;2;!3D1X3/2!DR!A34497%7#.%;9&

Trin 1

Opstilling af sædskifter på kommuneniveau

Indgangsdata:

I%!02;2#02#0A%!$;2;!B3/!%7!A34497%!#7$%/^35$%/h

• % I?/A%2!;/%;5!3D$%52!DR!B#/%!6%$/#B202?D%/!Y0.#7Z!A.:1Z!65;7$%2!31!D5;72%;.5[&• % I?/%2:2^%$!DR!^.%/!;B!$%!B#/%!6%$/#B202?D%/&• % F3/$2?D%B3/$%5#71!#7$%7!B3/!A34497%7&• % H;7$%2!;/%;5!DR!^.%/!;B!$%!B#/%!6%$/#B202?D%/&

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

I%/!2;1%0!#!BC51%7$%!6%/%17#71!9$1;710D97A2!#!%7!X3/$2?D%B3/$%5#71!4%$!+'i!0;7$X3/$!31)'i!5%/X3/$!B3/!A34497%%A0%4D5%2&!<34497%$;2;Z!$%/!#7$1R/!#!6%/%17#710%A0%4D5%2Z!%/!.#02#!2;6%5!,&!I%2!$/%X%/!0#1!34!;/%;5%2!B3/!^.%/!;B!$%!B#/%!6%$/#B202?D%/!4%$!2#5^C/%7$%!;72;5!^90M$?/&!I%09$%7!%/!;/%;5!31!^90$?/!3D$%52!DR!%2!0;7$X3/$0M!31!%2!5%/X3/$00:$0A#B2%&

'@

Tabel 1&!<34497%3D5?07#71%/!34!;72;5!$?/!lI=m!0;42!$?/A%2!;/%;5!l^;m!3D$%52!DR!%2!0;7$MX3/$0M!31!5%/X3/$00:$0A#B2%&

<34497%$;2; ";7$X3/$00:$0A#B2%/ T%/X3/$00:$0A#B2%/J/%;5 J72;5!$?/ J/%;5 J72;5!$?/ J/%;5 J72;5!$?/

<.:1 E',E GPP, ,+G* *)* E)GE +(E'

".#7 +G'@ ,+P) E+G (,E P)E ,*E)

N5;7$%2 +G' E(P P+ (, +)) ,*G

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Tabel 2&!J/%;5!4%$!^3.%$;B1/C$%/!3D1X3/2!DR!;4207#.%;9!B3/!,P*P!31!B3/$%5#710D;/;4%2/%;7.%7$2!#!3D02#55#71%7!;B!6%$/#B202?D%/7%0!0:$0A#B2%&

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ml''ml*)*mWl@(+(&@z haDEDEhaarealFoderroer =×=

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'+

Tabel 3&!J/%;5!l^;m!;B!$?/A%$%!;B1/C$%/!#!0:$0A#B2%/7%!DR!6%$/#B202?D%/7%!#!A34497%7&

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'E

Trin 2

Opstilling af N-gødningsplaner

\C51%7$%!#7$1;710$;2;!;7.%7$%0h

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=2!%A0%4D%5!DR!9$.;512%!#7$1;710$;2;!%/!1#.%2!#!2;6%5!G&

Tabel 4&!K7$1;710$;2;!2#5!QM1C$7#71043$95%2!.%$/C/%7$%!;7.%7$%50%!;B!^90$?/1C$7#71!31;B1/C$%/7%0!QM73/4%/!3D$%52!DR!23!X3/$2?D%/&

Husdyrgødningniveauer

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Beregning af udbragt N med handels- og husdyrgødning i amtet

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'G

[ ] [ ] [ ] [ ]NkgDENkgDENkgDEudnyttetN z@@@&GGE&,@WP,@+P&PE(@&@W,+,(@'&)G''&@z =××+××=

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Beregning af N-gødningsbehov i amtet

I%2!0;45%$%!QM6%^3.!#!;42%2!6%/%17%0!.%$!BC/02!;2!1C/%!QM6%^3.%2!#!^.%/2!%7A%52!0:$0A#B2%!3DDR!43$%5M6%$/#B202?D%7!#!;55%!A34497%/7%!#7$%7!B3/!;42%2&!QM6%^3.%2!6%/%17%0!9$!B/;!$%2$?/A%$%!;/%;5!;B!;B1/C$%7Z!X3/$2?D%7!31!%7!QM1C$7#71073/4!B3/!;B1/C$%7Z!$%/!%/!;B^:71#1!;BX3/$2?D%7!Y2;6%5!G[&

QM6%^3.%2!B3/!;/%;5%2!4%$!B3$%//3%/!Y2;6%5!E[!DR!A.:16/91!DR!0;7$X3/$!%/!#!%A0%4D5%2h

mzl@@@&,,mWzl+@@ml''z NkghaNKghabehovNFoderroer =×=−

H%$!3D1C/%50%7!;B!QM6%^3.%2!B3/!.#72%/^.%$%!2;1%0!$%/!^%70?7!2#5!B3/B/9120.#/A7#71%/!#!0:$M0A#B2%2&!H#72%/^.%$%!$?/A%0!2?D#0A!%B2%/!34D5CX7#71!;B!1/:0!31!%B2%/!.#72%//;D0!31!:/2%/&!I%2;72;1%0Z!;2!^;5.$%5%7!;B!1/:0!#!34$/#B2!34D5CX%0!^.%/2!R/&!I#00%!;B1/C$%/!Y.#72%//;D0Z!:/2%/!31^;5.$%5%7!;B!1/:0!#!34$/#B2[!$:AA%/!+G+!^;!Y,,,{E*{@&'×,*)!^;[!31!;72;1%0!;2!9$1C/%!B3/MB/912%7!B3/!.#72%/^.%$%!Y2;6%5!E[&!H#72%/^.%$%7!4%$!$#00%!B3/B/912%/!^;/!%7!QM73/4Z!$%/!;72;M1%0!;2!.:/%!+@!A1!5;.%/%!%7$!1C$7#71073/4%7!#!2;6%5!G&

\3/!$%2!/%02%/%7$%!;/%;5!4%$!.#72%/^.%$%!Y+)'M+G+!^;!sEE!^;![!6%/%17%0!QM6%^3.%2!9$!B/;1C$7#71073/4%7!#!2;6%5!G&!I%2!0;45%$%!QM6%^3.!B3/!;/%;5%2!4%$!.#72%/^.%$%!#!A.:16/910:$M0A#B2%2!DR!0;7$X3/$!6%/%17%0!.%$h

NkghaNkghahaNkghaNkghabehovNhvedeVi zP,@&G,Wz,)@EE[Wz+@W,)@Y+G+z& =××+−×=−

Beregning af N-over-/underskud i amtet"944%7!;B!QM6%^3.%2!B3/!;55%!0:$0A#B2%/!#!;42%2!%/!#!A34497%%A0%4D5%2!3D1X3/2!2#5+*&+'G&)(P!A1!Q&!K!;42%2!;7.%7$%0!#!1%77%407#2!,,@!A1!QW^;!^;7$%501C$7#71!0.;/%7$%!2#5+@&GP+&*P@!A1!Q!B3/!^%5%!;42%20!;/%;5&!O:71$%7!;B!9$7?22%2!Q!#!^90$?/1C$7#71%7!0.;/%/!2#5,@&@GG&E'(!A1&!QM3.%/0A9$$%2!#!;42%2!A;7!^%/%B2%/!1C/%0!3D!9$!B/;!$%2!0;45%$%!QM6%^3.!4#M790!4:71$%7!;B!9$7?22%2!Q!Y+*&+'G&)(P!A1!QMY+@&GP+&*P@{,@&@GG&E'(!A1!Q[Z!^.#5A%2!1#.%/+&+P,&G))!A1!Q&

-.%/0A9$$%2!0.;/%/!2#5!%7!1%77%407#25#1!3.%/1C$0A7#71!DR!;42%20!$?/A%$%!;/%;5%/!DR!,+&E!A1QW^;&!QM3.%/0A9$$%2!#!;42%2!A;7!B3/A5;/%0!.%$Z!;2!$%!53.D5#12#1%!9$7?22%50%0D/3U%72%/!;B Q!#^90$?/1C$7#71!#AA%!3.%/^35$%0W;7.%7$%0!.%$!3D02#55#71%7!;B!1C$7#710D5;7%/7%&!K!%A0%4D5%2!%/$%!;A29%52!3D7R%$%!9$7?22%50%0D/3U%72%/!#!1%77%407#2!,E&,i!5;.%/%!%7$!$%!53.D5#12#1%!9$7?2M2%50%0D/3U%72%/&

QM3.%/0A9$$%2!#!;42%2!;7.%7$%0!2#5!;2!A3//#1%/%!B3/6/91%2!;B!^;7$%501C$7#71!#!1C$7#710D5;7%/M7%&!<3//%A2#37%7!1%77%4BC/%0!#!%A0%4D5%2!.%$Z!;2!;55%!;/%;5%/!#!A34497%7!3.%/1C$%0Z!0R!$%20.;/%/!2#5!$%22%!QM3.%/0A9$&

''

Opstilling af gødningsplaner i kommuneeksemplet

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V:AA%BC51%7!B3/!3D02#55#71!;B!1C$7#710D5;7%/!0A%/!9$!B/;!;B1/C$%70!D/#3/#2%2&!I;!B3$%//3%/!^;/D/#3/#2%2!,!Y2;6%5!G[Z!3D02#55%0!BC/02!%7!1C$7#710D5;7!B3/!$%77%!;B1/C$%&!J/%;5%2!4%$!B3$%//3%/3D$%5%0!#!B#/%!;/%;5%/!9$!B/;!;/%;5;7$%5%7%!;B!^.%/2!;B!^90$?/1C$7#7107#.%;9%/7%!Ya8,&&&a8G[&!J/%;5%2!B3/!1C$7#7107#.%;9!a8,!65#.%/!0R5%$%0!,,!^;!Y@&+×''!^;[Z!31!7#.%;9%/7%a8+Z!a8E!31!a8G!65#.%/!^%7^35$0.#0!,(&'Z!,(&'!31!,,!^;&

\3$%//3%/7%0!QM6%^3.!3D1C/%0!9$!B/;!73/4%7!Y+@@!A1!QW^;[!31!A3//#1%/%0!B3/!QM3.%/0A9$$%2Y,+&E!A1!QW^;[!2#5!+,+&E!A1!QW^;&!K7$^35$%2!;B!Q!#!9$7?22%2!^90$?/1C$7#71!#!a8,!65#.%/!EE@!A1QW^;!Y''i!;B!(@@!A1!QW^;[&!I%!B5%02%!B3/B/9120;B1/C$%/!1C$%0!4%$!0;44%!4:71$%!^90$?/M1C$7#71!034!0%5.%!;B1/C$%7&!\3/B/9120;B1/C$%/Z!$%/!^;/!5;.%/%!Q!6%^3.Z!1C$%0!$31!#AA%!4%$02C//%!4:71$%/!Q!4%$!^90$?/1C$7#71!%7$!;B1/C$%70!73/40;22%!Q!6%^3.&!I%/!#7$1R/!%7!;7M$%2R/0.#/A7#71!DR!,@i& \3$%//3%/7%!3.%/1C$%0!#!a8,!0R5%$%0!4%$!,,)&)!A1!QW^;!YEE@!A1QW^;MY+@@{,+&E!A1!QW^;[[&!I%77%!3.%/1C$0A7#71!0.;/%/!2#5!%2!3.%/B3/6/91!;B!Q!#!a8,!DR!,+P'A1!QW^;!Y,,^;×,,)&)!A1!QW^;[Z!034!$%/!%B2%/BC51%7$% A3//#1%/%0!B3/!#!1C$7#710D5;7%7!a8+&

K!a8+!1C$%0!4%$!E@@!A1!QW^;!4%$!^90$?/1C$7#71!0.;/%7$%!2#5!,('!A1!9$7?22%2!Q&!QM6%^3.%2Z034!%/!A3//#1%/%2!B3/!3.%77:.72%!QM3.%/0A9$!B3/!B3$%//3%/Z!%/!+,+&E!A1!QW^;&!I%7!/%27#7101#M.%7$%!09DD5%/%7$%!^;7$%501C$7#71!65#.%/!$;!G)&E!A1!QW^;!Y+,+&EM,('!A1!QW^;[!0.;/%7$%!2#5!#;52!)*@&'!A1!Q!B3/!^%5%!;/%;5%2&!I%/!%/!%2!3.%/B3/6/91!DR!,+P'!A1!Q!#!a8,&!K!a8+!A3//#1%/%0^;7$%501C$7#710B3/6/91%2!2#5!@!A1!QW^;Z!^.3/.%$!3.%/B3/6/91%2!;B!QZ!$%/!2#5BC/%0!;B1/C$%7Z!%//%$9U%/%2!2#5!','&'!A1!Q!Y,+P'M)*@&'!A1!Q[

K!a8E!1C$%0!4%$!+@@!A1!QW^;!4%$!^90$?/1C$7#71!0.;/%7$%!2#5!,,@!A1!9$7?22%2!Q&!I%7!09DMD5%/%7$%!^;7$%501C$7#7104:71$%!%/!$;!,@+&E!A1!QW^;!Y+,+&EM,,@!A1!QW^;[!0.;/%7$%!2#5!,(**A1!Q!B3/!,(&'!^;&!-.%/B3/6/91%2!2#5!;B1/C$%7!%/!#!a8+!/%$9U%/%2!2#5!','&'!A1!Q&!I%22%!3.%/B3/M6/91!/%$9U%/%0!2#5!@!.%$!;2!2/:AA%!','&'!A1!Q!B/;!,(**!A1!Q&!a%/.%$!9$1C/!$%7!0;45%$%!09DMD5%/%7$%!^;7$%501C$7#71!,,)+!A1!Q!Y,(**M','&'!A1!Q[!0.;/%7$%!2#5!),!A1!QW^;!B3/!$%!,(&'!^;&

K!a8G!;7.%7$%0!9$%59AA%7$%!^;7$%501C$7#71!0.;/%7$%!2#5!;B1/C$%70!QM6%^3.Z!$%/!%/!65%.%2A3//#1%/%2!B3/!QM3.%/0A9$&

K!1C$7#710D5;7%/7%!B3/!B3$%//3%/!2#5BC/%0!#!;52!,G&*'@!A1!Q!Y,,^;×(@@!A1!QW^;{,(Z'^;×E@@!A1QW^;{,(&'^;×+@@!A1!QW^;[!4%$!^90$?/1C$7#71&!I%7!2#51:71%5#1%!4:71$%!^90$?/1C$7#71!2#5$%!;7$/%!;B1/C$%/!#!0:$0A#B2%2!%/!^%/%B2%/!/%$9U%/%2!2#5!P,&E**!A1!Q!Y,@(&+E*M,G*'@!A1!Q[&

'(

J/%;5%2!4%$!1/:0!31!1/C72B3$%/!YD/#3/#2%2!+[!1C$%0!^%/%B2%/!%B2%/!0;44%!D/#7U#D!034!B3$%//3M%/7%&!I%2!232;5%!B3/6/91!;B!^90$?/1C$7#71!65#.%/!')&@E'!A1!Q&!>95X%7!;B!^90$?/1C$7#71Z!$%/^C/%/!2#5!0:$0A#B2%2Z!%/!^%/%B2%/!/%$9U%/%2!2#5!EG&E'E!A1!Q!YP,&E**M')&@E'!A1!Q[&

K!1C$7#710D5;7%/7%!B3/!.#72%/^.%$%!YD/#3/#2%2!E[!.#5!B3/6/91%2!;B!^90$?/1C$7#71!.:/%!DR!#!;52')&)'@!A1!QZ!0RB/%42!$30%/#71!31!;/%;5;7$%5%!.%$!$%!B#/%!^90$?/1C$7#7107#.%;9%/!BC51%0&I%22%!B3/6/91!3.%/02#1%/!$%7!2#56;1%.:/%7$%!^90$?/1C$7#7104:71$%&!\3/!;2!2#5D;00%!B3/6/91%22#5!$%7!2#51:71%5#1%!4:71$%Z!/%$9U%/%0!^.%/!;/%;5;7$%5!D/3D3/2#37;52!4%$!B;A23/%7!@&(@+YEG&E'EW')&)'@!A1!Q[&!J/%;5;7$%5%7!;B!a8G!Y9$%59AA%7$%!^;7$%501C$7#71[!65#.%/!0R5%$%002C//%&

K!3D02#55#71%7!;B!1C$7#710D5;7%7!B3/!.#72%/^.%$%!;7.%7$%0!23!B3/0A%55#1%!1C$7#71073/4%/!;BM^:71#1!;B!B3/B/912%7&!I%2!;72;1%0Z!;2!+G+!;B!$%!+)'!^;!^;/!B3/B/912%7!.#72%//;D0Z!:/2%/!%55%/!+&R/0!1/:0&!QM73/4%7!B3/!$%!+G+!^;!%/!+@!A1!5;.%/%!%7$!4%$!B3/B/912%7!A3/7Z!^.#5A%2!1#.%/!,'(A1!QW^;!Y,)(!e!+@!A1!QW^;[&!QM1C$7#71073/4%7!65#.%/!,(*&E!A1!QW^;Z!^.#0!$%/!A3//#1%/%0!B3/QM3.%/0A9$&!I%!/%02%/%7$%!EE!^;!1C$%0!%B2%/!73/4.:/$#%7!,)(!A1!QW^;Z!^.#5A%2!1#.%/!,**&EA1!QW^;Z!7R/!$%/!A3//#1%/%0!B3/!QM3.%/0A9$&!QM1C$0A7#71%7!6%/%17%0!^%/%B2%/!%B2%/!0;44%D/#7U#D!034!B3/!B3$%//3%/7%!Y2;6%5!'[&

Tabel 5&!8C$7#710D5;7%/!B3/!B3$%//3%/!31!.#72%/^.%$%!1C$%2!.%$!B#/%!7#.%;9%/!;B!2#5$%5#71!4%$^90$?/1C$7#71!Ya8,Z!a8+Z!a8EZ!a8G[&!S#5BC/2!Q!4%$!^90$?/1C$7#71!Ya90$&!Q[!lA1!QW^;m&a;7$%501C$7#710!Ya$5&!Q[!lA1!QW^;m!0;42!;/%;5%2!l^;m!1C$%2!.%$!$%2!;71#.7%!7#.%;9&Gødnings Plan HG1 HG2 HG3 HG4

AfgrødeJ/%;5 a90$

Qa$5Q

J/%;5 a90$Q

a$5Q

J/%;5 a90$Q

a$5Q

J/%;5 a90$Q

a$5Q

Foderroer ,, (@@ @ ,(&' E@@ @ ,(&' +@@ ), ,, @ +,EVi.hvede forfrugtkorn

( G@@ @ G E@@ @ G ,'@ )P ,P @ ,**

Vi.hvede forfrugtGræs,ært, vinterraps

GG G@@ @ +P E@@ @ +P ,'@ ,, ,G@ @ ,(*

-.%702R%7$%!4%23$%!2#5!3D02#55#71!;B!1C$7#710D5;7%/!A/:.%/Z!;2!QM1C$7#710D5;7%/7%!A;7!A;5#M6/%/%0!2#5!;A29%5!QM1C$0A7#710D/;A0#0Z!31!;2!B3/6/91%2!;B!^;7$%50M!31!^90$?/1C$7#71!%/!;B02%424%$!$%2!;A29%55%!B3/6/91&

')

Trin 3

Beregning af udbytte, vand – og kvælstofbalancen med SKEP

Indgangsdata

• % ":$0A#B2%/• % 8C$7#710D5;7%/• % <5#4;]37%• % J/%;5;7$%5!;B!X3/$2?D%/!#!A34497%7!&• % f/

":$0A#B2%/!31!1C$7#710D5;7%/Z!$%/!%/!3D02#55%2!#!2/#7!,!31!+Z!#7$1R/!#!"<=>!6%/%17#71%/7%&<34497%70!D5;U%/#71!#!A5#4;]37%7!6%02%44%0!9$!B/;!A3/2%2!#!B#19/!'!#!2;6%5!+&!J/%;5;7$%5%7;B!X3/$2?D%7!#!A34497%7!%/!3D1X3/2!DR!6;11/97$!;B!%2!#72%/1/%/%2!/3$]37%A3/2!#!B#19/!(!#!A;D#M2%5!+&!f/Z!X3/$2?D%/!31!A5#4;]37%/!#7$1R/!#!"<=>!034!A5;00%.;/#;65%!XB&!+&+&

K!$%22%!%A0%4D%5!;72;1%0!$%2Z!;2!0:$0A#B2%2!5#11%/!#!A5#4;]37%!j$94Z!31!6%/%17#71%/7%!1%7M7%4BC/%0!B3/!D%/#3$%7!,PP(WP)&!J/%;5B3/$%5#71%7!;B!X3/$2?D%/!3D$%5%0!DR!/3$]37%A5;00%/!YXB&+&G&([h!G@i!;B!0;7$X3/$0;/%;5%2!034!FN,!31!(@i!034!FNE&!T%/X3/$0;/%;5%2!3D$%5%0!#!)@i!FNGX3/$!31!E@i!FN(!X3/$&

Beregningerne af kvælstof- og vandbalancen samt udbytterneI%/!1%77%41R0!A97!6%/%17#71%/!B3/!;/%;5%2!$?/A%2!4%$!B3$%//3%/!DR!0;7$X3/$!1C$%2!.%$!a8E&

";7$X3/$0;/%;5%2!4%$!B3$%//3%/!3D$%5%0!#!%2!FN,M!31!%2!FNEM;/%;5!0.;/%7$%!2#5!23!;/%;5%/!4%$/3$]37%A;D;U#2%2%/!DR!^%7^35$0.#0!)P!31!,G)!44&!J/%;5%2!4%$!B3$%//3%/!DR!FN,Z!$%/!1C$%0.%$!a8EZ!9$1C/!XB&!/3$]37%MA5;00%B3/$%5#71%7!#!A34497%7!0R5%$%0!(&(!^;!YG@i!;B!,(&'!^;[&FNEM;/%;5%2Z!$%/!1C$%0!.%$!a8EZ!%/!P&P!^;!Y(@i!;B!,(Z'!^;[&

V%0952;2%/7%!;B!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/7%!B3/!B3$%//3%/!YK$&!7/&!,[Z!$%/!%/!0#495%M/%2!4%$!A5#4;%2!4R52!.%$!j$94!B3/!,PP(WP)Z!9$.:51%0!#!$;2;6;0%7&

I%!1/97$5:11%7$%!/%0952;2%/!B3/!2C/023B9$6?22%/Z!^C02%2!A.:5023B!0;42!9$.;0A7#71%7!B3/!B3$%/M/3%/!$?/A%2!DR!FN,!%/!.#02!#!B#19/!,&!J55%!/%0952;2%/Z!$%/!%/!1C$%2!4%$!0;44%!4:71$%!^90$?/M1C$7#71!Y8,t8'[!31!B3/0A%55#1!4:71$%!^;7$%501C$7#71Z!%/!#!B#19/%7!B3/697$%2!4%$!/%22%5#7#%/&

"<=>!.:51%/!$%!B#/%!1C$7#710D5;7%/!#!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/Z!$%/!5#11%/!2:22%02DR!$%7!3D02#55%$%!1C$7#710D5;7&!I#00%!/%0952;2%/!;7.%7$%0!#!$%!%B2%/BC51%7$%!5#7%:/%!#72%/D3M5;2#3706%/%17#71%/&

'*

8+

8E8G

8'

Roe udbytte

N indhold i Roe udbyttet

N indhold i roetop udbyttet

N udvaskning

8,

Figur 1&!SC/023B9$6?22%!B3/!B3$%//3%/Z!A.:5023B!^C02%2!4%$!/3%/Z!A.:5023B!^C02%2!4%$!/3%23DMD%7!31!QM9$.;0A7#71&!\3$%//3%/7%!%/!1C$%2!.%$!B%4!7#.%;9%/!;B!^90$?/1C$7#71!Y8,t8'[A346#7%/%2!4%$!^%7^35$0.#0!'!31!)!B3/0A%55#1%!7#.%;9%/!;B!09DD5%/%7$%!^;7$%501C$7#71&

8C$7#710D5;7%7!B3/!;B1/C$%!,!#7$%^35$%/!+@@!A1!QW^;!4%$!^90$?/1C$7#71!31!),!A1!QW^;!B/;09DD5%/%7$%!^;7$%501C$7#71&!I%!B#/%!0:2!/%0952;2%/!B/;!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%!6%/%17#71%/Z!$%/5#11%/!2:22%02!DR!$%77%!1C$7#710D5;7Z!%/!,*@!A1!QW^;!^90$?/1C$7#71!Y8E[Z!A346#7%/%2!4%$^%7^35$0.#0!G,!31!*,!A1!QW^;!^;7$%501C$7#71!31!+)@!A1!QW^;!^90$?/1C$7#71!Y8G[!A346#7%M/%2!4%$!^%7^35$0.#0!',!31!),!A1!QW^;!B/;!09DD5%/%7$%!^;7$%501C$7#71&

'P

d$6?22%/Z!.;7$6;5;7U%MA34D37%72%/!Y7%$6C/Z!;A29%5!B3/$;4D7#71Z!;B02/C47#71!B/;!/3$]37%7[ZQM6;5;7U%MA34D37%72%/!Y;4437#;AB3/$;4D7#71Z!$%7#2/#B#A;2#37Z!QMB#A0%/#71Z!Q!^C02%2!4%$;B1/C$%7Z!:7$/#71%7!#!X3/$%70!QMD95X%/!31!:7$/#71%7!#!;B1/C$%70!QM#7$^35$[!6%/%17%0!B3/B3$%//3%/7%!DR!6;11/97$!;B!$%!B#/%!9$.;512%!0:2!/%0952;2%/&

Q0 /( (Q 1' 1O 00 N(0Q

O'

''3

'2N

'/0

'1(

'N/

%%Z F"#$+*6HK$#7#H%[5H%ZPF"\

Skep interpoleret værdi

G3

X1

X2 X6

X4

X3

H3 H1 H2 H4

H0

X0 G0

X5

G4

Figur 2&!<.:5023B9$.;0A7#71%7!0#495%/%2!#!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/!.%$!$%!B#/%9$.;512%!1C$7#710D5;7%/!Y8E!1C$7#710D5;7%/7%!Y![!,*@!A1!Q!^90$?/1C$7#71!09DD5%/%2!4%$^%7^35$0.#0!G,!YaE[!31!*,!A1!Q!4%$!^;7$%501C$7#71!YaG[!31!8G!1C$7#710D5;7%/7%!Y"[!+)@A1!Q!^90$?/1C$7#71!09DD5%/%2!4%$!^%7^35$0.#0!',!Ya,[!31!),!A1!Q!4%$!^;7$%501C$7#71Ya+[!.#0%/!$%7!#72%/D35%/%$%!.:/$#!;B!A.:5023B9$.;0A7#71%7!Y,+E!A1!QW^;[!1C$%2!4%$!+@@!A1Q!^90$?/1C$7#71!31!09DD5%/%2!4%$!),!A1!Q!4%$!^;7$%501C$7#71&

K!B#19/!+!0%0!9$.;0A7#71%7!0#495%/%2!.%$!$%!9$.;512%!B#/%!1C$7#710D5;7%/!Yr,Z!r+Z!rE!31!rG[&QM9$.;0A7#71%7!r@!%/!6%/%17%2!9$!B/;!r,Z!r+Z!rE!31!rG!.%$!5#7%:/!#72%/D35;2#37&!N%/%17#7M1%7!A;7!3D$%5%0!#!23!2/#7&!\C/02!6%/%17%0!QM9$.;0A7#71%7!Yr'!31!r([!.%$!23!^90$?/1C$7#710M7#.%;9%/!8E!31!8G!.%$!$%7!;7.%7$2%!^;7$%501C$7#7104:71$%!Ya@[!Y),!A1!QW^;[&

EGE@[EGYE'

HH

HHXXXX

−−×−+=

,+,@[,+Y,(

HH

HHXXXX

−−×−+=

(@

a%/%B2%/!6%/%17%0!QM9$.;0A7#71%7!r@!DR!6;11/97$!;B!r'!31!r(Z!^.3/!$%/!A3//#1%/%0!B3/!$%7;7.%7$2%!2#5$%5#71!;B!^90$?/1C$7#71!8@&

EGE@['(Y'@

GG

GGXXXX

−−×−+=

a.%/!A34D37%72!#!QM6;5;7U%7Z!.;7$6;5;7U%7!31!9$6?22%/7%!6%/%17%0!DR!0;44%!4R$%!.%$5#7%:/!#72%/D35;2#37!4%55%4!$%!/%0D%A2#.%!/%0952;2%/!B/;!$%!1/97$5:11%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/31!0944%/%0!B3/!^%5%!$%2!$?/A%$%!;/%;5&!K!2;6%5!(!0%0!/%0952;2%/!B3/!B3$%//3%/!$?/A%2!DR!0;7$MX3/$!.%$!1C$7#710D5;7!a8E&

Udbyttetilpasning af SKEP beregningerne

I%!43$%56%/%17%$%!9$6?22%/!A3//#1%/%0!#!B3/^35$!2#5!$%!;A29%52!3D7R%$%!9$6?22%/!DR!;4207#M.%;9&!<3//%A2#37%7!1%77%4BC/%0!.%$!;2!$%5%!$%7!%7A%52%!4;/A!3D!#!%7!;7$%5!4%$!^3.%$;B1/CM$%7!Y$%7!;A29%55%!;B1/C$%[!31!%7!o#AA%!D/3$9A2#.o!;7$%5!YA;D#2%5!+&E[&

K!%A0%4D5%2!9$1C/!$%2!^C02%$%!;A29%55%!B3$%//3%9$6?22%!DR!;4207#.%;9!P@i!;B!$%2!43$%56%M/%17%$%!9$6?22%&!I%/!;72;1%0!0R5%$%0Z!;2!,@i!;B!4;/A%7!6%02R/!;B!%7!o#AA%!D/3$9A2#.o!;7$%5Z$%/!1C$%0!31!X3/$6%^;7$5%0!DR!0;44%!4R$%!034!;/%;5%2!4%$!B3$%//3%/7%&!K!2;6%5!(!0%0!$%2A3//#1%/%$%!/%0952;2!B3/!B3$%//3%7&

Klimanormalisering af SKEP/Daisy beregningerne

K!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!43$%56%/%17#71%/!;7.%7$%0!/%0952;2%/Z!$%/!6?11%/!DR!A5#4;!4R52!#!R/%7%,PP(WP)!31!,PP)WP*&!I%/!BR0!0R5%$%0!%2!0:2!/%0952;2%/!B3/!^.%/2!;B!R/%7%!Y2;6%5!([&!<5#4;73/M4;5#0%/#71%7!;B!/%0952;2%/7%!%/!6%0A/%.%2!#!A;D&!+&G&*

Q%$%702R%7$%!%A0%4D%5!.#0%/!D/#7U#DD%/7%!#!A5#4;73/4;5#0%/#71%7Z!$%/!;7.%7$%0!DR!$%!%7MA%52%!/%0952;2%/&!N%4:/A!;2!#!$%!5;7$0$:AA%7$%!6%/%17#71%/!1%77%4BC/%0!A5#4;73/4;5#0%/#7M1%7!DR!6;11/97$!;B!1%77%407#20/%0952;2%2!B3/!^%7^35$0.#0!0;7$X3/$0M!31!5%/X3/$00:$0A#B2%/7%!#A34497%7!31!#AA%!034!#!%A0%4D5%2!DR!%7!%7A%52!;B1/C$%&!V%0952;2%/7%!A5#4;73/4;5#0%/%0034!.#02!#!B#19/!)!;B07#2!+&G&*&

I%2!A5#4;73/4;5#0%/%$%!/%0952;2!B3/!B3$%//3%/!1C$%2!.%$!1C$7#710D5;7!a8E!B3/!A.:16/91!DRFN,MX3/$%7!65#.%/!0R5%$%0h

haNkgX W,GP[G*P+YG*(,,E+,E),E+@ =−×

−−+=

(,

Tabel 6&!<.:5023B6;5;7U%Z!9$6?22%!31!.;7$6;5;7U%!B3/!B3$%//3%/!DR!%7!FN,MX3/$!.%$!1C$M7#710D5;7!a8E&!V%0952;2%/7%!%/!6%/%17%2!4%$!"<=>&!I%/!B#7$%0!2/%!2?D%/!/%0952;2%/h!,[!#AA%A3//#1%/%$%Z!+[!A3//#1%/%$%!B3/!;A29%52!9$6?22%!31!E[!A3//#1%/%$%!B3/!;A29%52!9$6?22%!31!A5#4;M73/4;5#0%/%$%&

Ikke korrigeret Udbytte korrigeret Klima ogudbytte korr.

Kvælstof Balance 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 Klimanormaliseret

N handelsgødning ),&@ ),&@ ),&@ ),&@ ),&@N Husdyrgødning +@@&@ +@@&@ +@@&@ +@@&@ +@@&@N Fiksering @&@ @&@ @&@ @&@ @N Atmosfære ,E&, ,E&' ,E&, ,E&' ,+&PTotal tilført N +*G&, +*G&' +*G&, +*G&' +*E&@

Ammoniak fordampning ,)&, ,)&, ,)&, ,)&, ,)&,N udvaskning ,++&P ,+*&' ,E,&* ,E(&) ,GPDenitrifikation +&@ @&@ ,&P @&@ @&'N høstet med roen ,,,&E ,@G&* ,@@&+ PG&E ,@@&'N høstet med roetoppen ')&* GG&G '+&@ EP&P G,&,Total N Fjernet E,,&, +PG&* E@E&@ +**&@ E@*&,

Ændring i jordens organisk N ind-hold

,(&, M,E&) ,)&E M,,&P +'

Ændring i jordens uorganisk N ind-hold

MGE&+ E&' ,&( *&G @

Ændring i afgrødens N indhold @ @ @ @ @

Nitrat N indhold i afstrømningsvand MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!l41!Q#2/;2MQW5m!MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMNitrat N koncentration G'&E G,&( G*&G GG&+ '@&G

Udbytte MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!l2!202&W^;m!MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMRoe udbytte *&G *&+ )&' )&G )&'Roetop udbytte +&@ ,&' ,&* ,&G ,&G

Vandbalance MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!l44m!MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMNedbør (,+&) )E(&P (,+&) )E(&P (PG&+Aktuel fordampning E(+&( G+)&+ E(+&( G+)&+ EP*&(Afstrømning +),&E E@P&, +),&E E@P&, +P'&(

Areal MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!l^;m!MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMFoderroe arealet (&( (&( (&( (&( (&(

ISSN 1397-9884

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