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Goldman Sachs
European Financials Conference
Madrid 10-12 June 2014
DNB GROUP
DNB - Norway’s Leading Financial Services Group
- Market leader in Norway and leading within selected global industries
Significant market share Global leader within selected industries
#1 shipping and offshore bank globally
One of the world’s leading seafood banks
A leading international energy bank
2
A rock-solid Norwegian economy
*Note: Budget surplus/deficit calculated as a percentage share of country
GDP; forecasts for 2013
Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 94, November 2013
General government net financial liabilities Percentage of nominal GDP 2013
Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 94, November 2013
Annual budget deficit/surplus for 2013* (OECD)
• Other countries’ budget deficit:
USA -6.5%
Japan -10.0%
Canada -3.0%
Australia -2.4%
-180
-130
-80
-30
20
70
120Percent
3
Solid development in a robust Norwegian economy
Gross Domestic Product Mainland, year on year
4
Unemployment rate Per cent
Source: Statistics Norway
Continuous GDP growth at approx. 2 per cent
Still high level of investments in both oil and housing
High price levels for important Norwegian goods and services
– continued high portfolio quality and low impairments
5
1000$/day
ClarkSea Index 2009-1Q 14 Oil price Spot Brent 1995-1Q14 Dollar/Barrel
Salmon Prices 2000-2013 Kroner / Kg
Source: Reuters, FHL/NOS, Clarkson Research Service, Statistics Norway
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1995 2001 2007 201315
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2003 2006 2009 20120
5
10
15
20
25
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Strong fundamentals
A broad, solid increase in household’s
disposable income
House price increase adjusting for
growth in disposable income:
1.2 % per year on average since 1985.
New building is lagging population
growth
Population growth in Oslo is almost 3x
higher than completed new dwellings in
2013.
Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring,
post the back-drop last autumn
6
May
0.1%
House prices have picking up
– 5 months in a row
* All dwellings, Month over Month price change.
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11 jan-12 jan-13 jan-14
Seasonally adjusted house price index *
Pre-tax operating profit before impairment (NOK bn)
DNB delivers healthy profit
7
Pre-tax operating profit before impairment in NOK billion
7.4 (5.1)
Cost/income ratio in per cent
41.3 (52.0)
Return on equity in per cent
15.5 (10.0)
Common equity Tier 1 capital ratio in per cent (transitional rules)
11.9 (10.6)1)
Figures in parentheses refer to 1Q13
1) Including 50 per cent of profit for the period
8
First quarter 2014
Earnings per share
3.39 (1.96)
Annualised 1Q growth of 2.5% for lending, 9% for deposits Ambition of 3-4 per cent annual lending growth maintained
NOK billion
9
Lending Deposits
1 298
1 341 1 344
1 306
1 315 1 324
31March
30June
30Sept.
31Dec.
31March
30June
30Sept.
31Dec.
31March
2012 2013 2014
Loans at end of period Loans adjusted for exchange rate movements
811
868900
816
845
882
797
854874
31March
30June
30Sept.
31Dec.
31March
30June
30Sept.
31Dec.
31March
2012 2013 2014
Deposits at end of period Deposits adjusted for exchange rate movements
Combined spread down due to higher volume growth in deposits than lending DNB expects stable combined spreads
Per cent
10
1.83
1.98 2.01
2.18 2.212.32
2.42 2.42 2.42
0.04
(0.11) (0.13)
(0.27) (0.30)(0.24) (0.29) (0.30) (0.29)
1.16 1.18 1.18 1.22 1.201.28 1.29 1.30 1.25
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
Lending spread
Deposit spread
Combined spread- weighted average
1 757 1 806 1 981 1 935
1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14
Net commissions and fees Corporate finance, credit and securities broking etc.
Asset management and custodial services Real estate broking
Money transfer and banking services Sale of insurance products
+12%growth
1 956
2 185
Upward trend in commissions & fees – especially the “capital light” products/services are growing
11
NOK million
+12%
growth
DNBs New Life Products - Defined contribution
- Profit & Loss statement for 2003-2013, break even after 10 years
12
The cost-income-ratio is now below 45 per cent
13
48.3
45.7
41.3
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014
Underlying nominal costs are expected to be stable in the period up to 2016,
and the Group’s cost/income ratio will remain highly competitive
Positive development in asset quality – decline in net non-performing
and net doubtful loans and guarantees 1)
14
19.118.4
19.5 19.7 19.9
23.3 22.9
20.7
16.4
1.711.55 1.50 1.50 1.48
1.71 1.70
1.381.19
1.050.88
1.10 1.16 1.10
1.37 1.39
1.100.91
31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 March 30 June 30 Sept. 31 Dec. 31 March
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Baltics and Poland
DNB Group excl. Baltics and Poland
As a percentage of net loans
As a percentage of net loans excl. Baltics and Poland
Per cent
NOK billion
1) Includes non-performing loans and guarantees and loans and guarantees subjectto individual impairment. Accumulated individual impairment is deducted.
Positive development in impairment levels driven by shipping
recoveries and strong underlying development
15
Credit quality will improve further, and losses are
expected to be well below normalised levels
NOK millions. Per cent
Capital efficiency focus – track record so far
16
2012 ~35-40 bps*
2013 ~40-45 bps*
1Q 2014 ~10 bps*
Sale of non-core assets
Product restructuring
Financial restructuring
Investment optimisation
Sale of non-core assets
Product restructuring
Sale of non-performing assets
Sale of non-core assets
Sale of infrastructure company
Quality assurance
*positive CET1 effect under transition rules
Common equity Tier 1 capital ratio 1)
- on track to reach all required capital levels
Leverage ratio Basel III 3) Per cent
Basel III applying average weights
used by Swedish banks 4) Per cent
CET1 transitional rules Per cent
CET1 Basel III estimate Per cent
3) Calculated according to CRD IV rules
4) Estimated common equity Tier 1 capital ratio according to
Basel III, applying average weights used by Swedish banks
1) Including 50 per cent of profit for the period,
except for the full year figures
2) 12.1 per cent if 75 per cent of profit for the period is included
17
10.6 10.8 11.011.8 11.9
31 March2013
30 June2013
30 Sept.2013
31 Dec.2013
31 March2014
4.3 4.2 4.3
5.3 5.1
31 March2013
30 June2013
30 Sept.2013
31 Dec.2013
31 March2014
12.1 12.1 12.513.6 14.2
31 March2013
30 June2013
30 Sept.2013
31 Dec.2013
31 March2014
14.7 14.8 15.216.3
17.5
31 March2013
30 June2013
30 Sept.2013
31 Dec.2013
31 March2014
2)
10.6 %
13.6 %11.4 % 11.7 %
13.2 %15.5 %
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014
8.5 % 9.2 % 9.4 %10.7 %
11.8 % 11.9 %
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014
On track towards 2016 targets
Target
Return on equity
> 12 per cent
Return on equity
CET 1 capital ratio (transition rules)
18
Requirement
CET1 capital ratio
13.5-14.0 per cent
Long term dividend policy
50 per cent
Temporary pay out ratio during capital
build up period:
Minimum 25 per cent
Q&A