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Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference Madrid 10-12 June 2014 DNB GROUP

DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

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Page 1: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

Goldman Sachs

European Financials Conference

Madrid 10-12 June 2014

DNB GROUP

Page 2: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

DNB - Norway’s Leading Financial Services Group

- Market leader in Norway and leading within selected global industries

Significant market share Global leader within selected industries

#1 shipping and offshore bank globally

One of the world’s leading seafood banks

A leading international energy bank

2

Page 3: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

A rock-solid Norwegian economy

*Note: Budget surplus/deficit calculated as a percentage share of country

GDP; forecasts for 2013

Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 94, November 2013

General government net financial liabilities Percentage of nominal GDP 2013

Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 94, November 2013

Annual budget deficit/surplus for 2013* (OECD)

• Other countries’ budget deficit:

USA -6.5%

Japan -10.0%

Canada -3.0%

Australia -2.4%

-180

-130

-80

-30

20

70

120Percent

3

Page 4: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

Solid development in a robust Norwegian economy

Gross Domestic Product Mainland, year on year

4

Unemployment rate Per cent

Source: Statistics Norway

Continuous GDP growth at approx. 2 per cent

Still high level of investments in both oil and housing

Page 5: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

High price levels for important Norwegian goods and services

– continued high portfolio quality and low impairments

5

1000$/day

ClarkSea Index 2009-1Q 14 Oil price Spot Brent 1995-1Q14 Dollar/Barrel

Salmon Prices 2000-2013 Kroner / Kg

Source: Reuters, FHL/NOS, Clarkson Research Service, Statistics Norway

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1995 2001 2007 201315

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2003 2006 2009 20120

5

10

15

20

25

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Page 6: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

Strong fundamentals

A broad, solid increase in household’s

disposable income

House price increase adjusting for

growth in disposable income:

1.2 % per year on average since 1985.

New building is lagging population

growth

Population growth in Oslo is almost 3x

higher than completed new dwellings in

2013.

Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring,

post the back-drop last autumn

6

May

0.1%

House prices have picking up

– 5 months in a row

* All dwellings, Month over Month price change.

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11 jan-12 jan-13 jan-14

Seasonally adjusted house price index *

Page 7: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

Pre-tax operating profit before impairment (NOK bn)

DNB delivers healthy profit

7

Page 8: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

Pre-tax operating profit before impairment in NOK billion

7.4 (5.1)

Cost/income ratio in per cent

41.3 (52.0)

Return on equity in per cent

15.5 (10.0)

Common equity Tier 1 capital ratio in per cent (transitional rules)

11.9 (10.6)1)

Figures in parentheses refer to 1Q13

1) Including 50 per cent of profit for the period

8

First quarter 2014

Earnings per share

3.39 (1.96)

Page 9: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

Annualised 1Q growth of 2.5% for lending, 9% for deposits Ambition of 3-4 per cent annual lending growth maintained

NOK billion

9

Lending Deposits

1 298

1 341 1 344

1 306

1 315 1 324

31March

30June

30Sept.

31Dec.

31March

30June

30Sept.

31Dec.

31March

2012 2013 2014

Loans at end of period Loans adjusted for exchange rate movements

811

868900

816

845

882

797

854874

31March

30June

30Sept.

31Dec.

31March

30June

30Sept.

31Dec.

31March

2012 2013 2014

Deposits at end of period Deposits adjusted for exchange rate movements

Page 10: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

Combined spread down due to higher volume growth in deposits than lending DNB expects stable combined spreads

Per cent

10

1.83

1.98 2.01

2.18 2.212.32

2.42 2.42 2.42

0.04

(0.11) (0.13)

(0.27) (0.30)(0.24) (0.29) (0.30) (0.29)

1.16 1.18 1.18 1.22 1.201.28 1.29 1.30 1.25

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

Lending spread

Deposit spread

Combined spread- weighted average

Page 11: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

1 757 1 806 1 981 1 935

1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14

Net commissions and fees Corporate finance, credit and securities broking etc.

Asset management and custodial services Real estate broking

Money transfer and  banking services Sale of insurance products

+12%growth

1 956

2 185

Upward trend in commissions & fees – especially the “capital light” products/services are growing

11

NOK million

+12%

growth

Page 12: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

DNBs New Life Products - Defined contribution

- Profit & Loss statement for 2003-2013, break even after 10 years

12

Page 13: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

The cost-income-ratio is now below 45 per cent

13

48.3

45.7

41.3

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014

Underlying nominal costs are expected to be stable in the period up to 2016,

and the Group’s cost/income ratio will remain highly competitive

Page 14: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

Positive development in asset quality – decline in net non-performing

and net doubtful loans and guarantees 1)

14

19.118.4

19.5 19.7 19.9

23.3 22.9

20.7

16.4

1.711.55 1.50 1.50 1.48

1.71 1.70

1.381.19

1.050.88

1.10 1.16 1.10

1.37 1.39

1.100.91

31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 March 30 June 30 Sept. 31 Dec. 31 March

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Baltics and Poland

DNB Group excl. Baltics and Poland

As a percentage of net loans

As a percentage of net loans excl. Baltics and Poland

Per cent

NOK billion

1) Includes non-performing loans and guarantees and loans and guarantees subjectto individual impairment. Accumulated individual impairment is deducted.

Page 15: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

Positive development in impairment levels driven by shipping

recoveries and strong underlying development

15

Credit quality will improve further, and losses are

expected to be well below normalised levels

NOK millions. Per cent

Page 16: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

Capital efficiency focus – track record so far

16

2012 ~35-40 bps*

2013 ~40-45 bps*

1Q 2014 ~10 bps*

Sale of non-core assets

Product restructuring

Financial restructuring

Investment optimisation

Sale of non-core assets

Product restructuring

Sale of non-performing assets

Sale of non-core assets

Sale of infrastructure company

Quality assurance

*positive CET1 effect under transition rules

Page 17: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

Common equity Tier 1 capital ratio 1)

- on track to reach all required capital levels

Leverage ratio Basel III 3) Per cent

Basel III applying average weights

used by Swedish banks 4) Per cent

CET1 transitional rules Per cent

CET1 Basel III estimate Per cent

3) Calculated according to CRD IV rules

4) Estimated common equity Tier 1 capital ratio according to

Basel III, applying average weights used by Swedish banks

1) Including 50 per cent of profit for the period,

except for the full year figures

2) 12.1 per cent if 75 per cent of profit for the period is included

17

10.6 10.8 11.011.8 11.9

31 March2013

30 June2013

30 Sept.2013

31 Dec.2013

31 March2014

4.3 4.2 4.3

5.3 5.1

31 March2013

30 June2013

30 Sept.2013

31 Dec.2013

31 March2014

12.1 12.1 12.513.6 14.2

31 March2013

30 June2013

30 Sept.2013

31 Dec.2013

31 March2014

14.7 14.8 15.216.3

17.5

31 March2013

30 June2013

30 Sept.2013

31 Dec.2013

31 March2014

2)

Page 18: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

10.6 %

13.6 %11.4 % 11.7 %

13.2 %15.5 %

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014

8.5 % 9.2 % 9.4 %10.7 %

11.8 % 11.9 %

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014

On track towards 2016 targets

Target

Return on equity

> 12 per cent

Return on equity

CET 1 capital ratio (transition rules)

18

Requirement

CET1 capital ratio

13.5-14.0 per cent

Long term dividend policy

50 per cent

Temporary pay out ratio during capital

build up period:

Minimum 25 per cent

Page 19: DNB GROUP€¦ · 2013. Norwegian housing market show a upward trend again this spring, post the back-drop last autumn 6 May 0.1% ... 30 Sept. 2013 31 Dec. 2013 31 March 2014 12.1

Q&A