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Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
World Climate Research Programme:
Progress and Plans
Ghassem R. AsrarDirector, WCRP
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Mission & Objectives World Climate Research Programme supports climate-
related decision making and adaptation and mitigation planning by developing science required to improve
(1) climate predictions and
(2) understanding of human influence on climate
“for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society” (WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015).
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Past & Present• WCRP was established in 1980 after WCC-1 (1979)• Sponsors: WMO, ICSU, IOC/UNESCO• Early international initiatives:
– Global Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP) 1967– Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) 1984– World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) 1990
• 2005: Strategic Framework 2005-2015 (COPES)– ‘to make new advances in the analysis and prediction of the
variability and change of the comprehensive Earth system for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society”
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Projects & Activities
Energy & Water Cycle
Ocean
CryosphereStratospheric Processes
WCRP Core Projects on climate and... WCRP flexible response to recent thrusts & research needs: Cross-Cutting Activities
• Extremes
• Monsoons
• Sea Level
• Seasonal & Decadal Predict.
• Regional Modeling etc.
(WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015)
WCRP foci: process understanding, modeling, observations, data assimilation and analysis
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Future Horizons
2008-2013: WCRP activities and core projects implement the Strategic Framework COPES(Coordinated Observation and Prediction of Earth System)
Post-2013: to achieve a more effective interface with the users of climate informational products a new WCRP structure will be needed
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Past Accomplishments: TOGA (I)
Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (1985-1994)
TOGA led to a major breakthrough in seasonal climate forecasting and developed the capability to predict El Niño
• WCRP project to study atmosphere-ocean interaction
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Past Accomplishments: TOGA (II)
TOGA created the first operational element of the climate observing system in the tropical Pacific
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Past Accomplishments : WOCE (I)
World Ocean Circulation Experiment (1982-2002)
WOCE made the first global snapshot of the world ocean, estimated fluxes of mass and heat, and created the basis for Argo and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)
• largest and most successful global ocean research project ever undertaken
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Past Achievements:
Arctic Climate System StudyACSYS 1994-2003• first comprehensives study of the Arctic
climate system and it’s role in the global climate system
• followed by the WCRP Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project
Cryosphere now top on the climate agenda!
ACSYS historical ice chart archive (1553-2002), http://acsys.npolar.no
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Recent Achievements:
Assessment on Ozone DepletionWMO/UNEP Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion (1998, 2002, 2006)
• Scientific basis provided by WCRP-SPARC through model simulations and analyses (Chemistry Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) project)
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Recent Accomplishments:
WCRP contribution to IPCC AR4• WCRP-associated scientists are major contributors to
IPCC assessments• mainly climate modelers, climate diagnostic experts, cryospheric
scientists
“WCRP serves an irreplaceable role for coordination within the
science community, which in turn is invaluable to the IPCC”
Dr. S. Solomon, IPCC Working Group 1 Co-Chair
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Recent Accomplishments:
IPCC AR4 Climate ProjectionsWCRP-IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) archive, hosted at PCMDI • made available to the entire world for free:
- 1500 users,
- 1100 diagnostic subprojects,
- 300 new publications,
- 33 terabytes of data ready for download
• for climate science + regional projections (WG 1)/ impact assessment
studies (WG 2 & 3)
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
IPCC AR4 (2007):
‘Warming is Unequivocal’
‘Warming will continue’
How much?
How fast?
Where?
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
IPCC AR4 (2007):
‘Precipitation Changes’
...but there are large areas where the sign is uncertain
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
IPCC AR4 (2007):
‘Changes in Extreme Events’
• Widespread changes in extreme temperatures:
- cold days, cold nights, frost have become less frequent,
- hot days, hot nights, heat waves have become more frequent
• Evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the N-Atlantic
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
IPCC AR4 (2007):
‘Changes in Extreme Events’
IPCC FAQs (2007)
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
IPCC AR4 (2007):
‘Polar Ice Extent’
IPCC TS (2007)
• Annual Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7% since 1978, with larger decreases during summer (7.4%)
• No statistically significant trends have been observed in Antarctic sea ice extent
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
IPCC AR4 (2007):
‘Indicators of Climate Change’Since 1970, Increase in:• Global surface temperature• Tropospheric temperatures• Global SSTs, ocean Ts• Global sea level• Water vapor• Rainfall intensity• Precipitation extratropics• Hurricane intensity• Drought & heat waves• Extreme high temperatures• Ice sheet disintegration
Decrease in:
• NH snow extent
• Arctic sea ice
• Glaciers
• Cold temperatures
Need of improved understanding & attribution
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Tipping Elements
Lenton & Schellnhuber, Nature 2007
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Tipping Elements
Lent
on e
t al
., P
NA
S 2
008
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
IPCC AR4 (2007):
‘Science is Needed Urgently’ Mitigation• What level of mitigation? What stabilisation scenarios? • Can we detect and attribute regional impacts?• What is dangerous? - short-term, long-term, irreversible
(scale)
Adaptation• Even successful mitigation requires adaptation!• Regional & local scales, near-term & long-term• What do we need to adapt to? How fast? • Extreme events are critical • Focus on urban environments
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Working on the next IPCC Assessment:
Lessons Learnt from IPCC AR4 (I)
• WCRP& IGBP & GCOS organized a Workshop in Sydney, Australia, Oct. 2007: Outcome & Recommendations
• Emergent science questions: hydrological cycle; ice sheet dynamics and sea level rise; physical and
biogeochemical feedbacks; aerosol and cloud forcing;• Regionalization: refine and improve capability;• Information and prediction for adaptation: global;
emission, processes, climate sensitivity etc.; thresholds;• Identification of observation needs;• Interaction with policy issues: communicating uncertainty;
view on future IPCC structure/processes.
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Working on the next IPCC Assessment:
Next Generation Climate Models• WCRP& IGBP modelling communities developed
• new coupled-model intercomparison (CMIP5) experiments• the ‘Climate Prediction Project’ (World Modelling Summit,
Reading, UK, May 2008), with WWRP• framework for future emission scenarios (all IPCC WGs)
Top: traditional forward approach starting with socio-economic variables;
Bottom: new approach starting with concentration.
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Risk Management and Adaptation: Advancing Seasonal Prediction
• Workshop on Seasonal Prediction: Outcome• Maximum predictability has not been achieved
(interactions between climate system components); • Model errors continue to limit forecast quality;• Seasonal predictability needs to be assessed with
respect to changing climate (IPCC class models);• Test weather prediction models on seasonal time
scales (collaboration with THORPEX);• Need for baseline procedure for assessing seasonal
prediction (validation, best practices).
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Risk Management and Adaptation: Advancing Decadal Prediction
• WCRP Task Group on Decadal Climate Prediction:• assess skill of current decadal prediction models;• provide model integrations to allow estimation of the evolution of
expected climate for the period 2005-2035, relative to the climate of recent decades;
• encourage the use of higher resolution climate models, with the hope of better resolving synoptic processes associated with extremes, and assessing the benefits of higher resolution in general.
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Risk Management and Adaptation: Advancing Regional Climate Prediction
• WCRP Task Group on Regional Climate Modelling and Downscaling:• assess available regional modelling and downscaling techniques,
summarize the shortcomings, difficulties and scientific basis of existing regional downscaling methods to serve as guidance for the climate change impact assessment community;
• develop a framework for evaluation and intercomparison of regional downscaling techniques to foster more critical analysis of available methods and quantify the uncertainties.
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Risk Management and Adaptation: Capacity Building
• Hands-on training seminars to increase regional seasonal forecasting capabilities in E-Africa [with WMO and regional climate centre ICPAC, World Bank as co-sponsor]
• Easy access for non-experts e.g. regional assessments by African users to develop Africa Climate Atlas [University Oxford]
• WCRP capacity building training seminar on using CMIP3-data archive [with ICTP]
“make use of the knowledge: better assess and interpret IPCC model
simulations for national needs”
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Major Events 2009Better climate information for a better future31 August - 4 September, Geneva, Switzerland
Ocean information for society
21-25 September, Venice, Italy
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Getting Involved• http://wcrp.wmo.int
– for WCRP science activities, state-of-research and accomplishments.
• [email protected] – subscribe to the WCRP e-zine. – submit proposals for collaborative activities,– inform the WCRP community of your
research!
Dr Ghassem R. Asrar
Conclusions• WCRP has a great opportunity with attendant challenges to build on
its 30 years of successful legacy by staying focused on the forefront of climate system research for the rest of this century.
• WCRP must promote and enable the timely use of climate information and knowledge it generates for decision-making through its partnerships with providers and users of such information.
• The greatest challenge for WCRP is to demonstrate the value of its global and regional scientific coordination and integration efforts to its sponsors/donors, and the participant scientists and organizations that support its Projects and activities.
