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Driving Change and Opportunity
through Strategic Influencing
Nick Mabey, E3G
March 2014
March 2014 E3G 2
Background
E3G
• Non-profit, public interest European organisation with a global scope
• Founded in 2005 with mission to “accelerate the transition to sustainable development”
• Carries out coalition building, advice and institutional design working across energy, environment, security, diplomatic and economic sectors
My Background
• UK Prime Ministers Strategy Unit: Energy, Climate Change, Security Policy
• FCO Environment Policy Department
• WWF, London Business School and MIT, PowerGen
March 2014 E3G 3
Four Core Points
• Many innovative business model and social solutions require public policy changes and /or institutional change to succeed
• Usually barriers to change are not primarily economic, technical or analytical but political and institutional
• Businesses and social entrepreneurs rarely direct sufficient energy and professionalism to creating the external conditions for growth and success. Poor cousin of internal management.
• We can use change and influencing tools approaches to accelerate and better direct change – but this is as much about new skills as it is about new analysis
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”There is nothing a government hates more than to be well-informed; for it makes the process of arriving at decisions much more complicated and difficult” John Maynard Keynes
The Reality of Decision Making?
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Change is a messy, complex and uncomfortable process. A reactive stance often makes sense.
Pandolfo Petrucci, Lord of Siena, to Machiavelli (Florence, c. 1515): ‘wishing to make as few mistakes as possible I conduct my government day by day and arrange my affairs hour by hour; because the times are more powerful than our brains’
Need to understand the real constraints on decision
makers – not just assume they lack “political will”
March 2014 E3G 6
Prescriptions put forward to address complex issues are often seen as unrealistic by decision makers
Sustainable Development Ideal
Practical Policy Makers’ View
Coherence All policy should be integrated and coherent, both domestically
and internationally
We have enough problems agreeing what to do internally without involving anybody else
who will just obstruct action
Long term approaches
Policy should take a long term and preventative view and not
just focus on short term reactive responses
We are overstretched just keeping day-to-day operations afloat, planning over the next budget period and reacting to
events.
Managing uncertainty
Policies should consider the full range of possible uncertainties
More uncertainty is unhelpful and complicates decision making.
What am I meant to do with it?
Systematic approaches
Polices should be designed in a systematic manner embracing and controlling all parts of the
problem
Systematic proposals are overcomplicated and can never
be implemented in the real world
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Building a compelling case for change requires a “why, what and how”
All elements needed to deliver real action – balance of influence depends on issue and context
Why? What? How?
Building the case for action
What action is needed?
How should organisations
respond?
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Strategic Influencing (I)
Objectives
What?
Change
What?
How?
When?
Influence
Who?
How?
When?
How can we drive change?
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Mechanics of Influencing
Visibility and Framing = Attention
Facts + Trust + Legitimacy = Consent
Interests + Consent = Action/Change
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From interventions to institutions
Strategic Outcomes Institution Building Fragmented
Decision
Landscape
Coalition
Building
“Tunnelling
Through”
Convergent
Policy
Making
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Doing the policy and politics together
Design the Politics…. • Bringing all necessary decision-makers together • Focussing and framing choices • Defining decision points and opportunities • Building and animating winning coalitions
With the Policy • Research and analysis
• Designing policy and institutional solutions
• Assembling necessary resources
The right people, in the right place, at the right time with
the right choices in the right context
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Strategic
Outcome
Generate Policy
Options
Map Politics Coalitions/Animation/Frames
Policies/Tools/Institutions
Propositions Decisions
E3G Strategic Change Framework
March 2014 E3G 13
Requires 5 core Competencies
1. Strategic Thinking
2. Coalition Building and Animating
3. Thought Leadership, Agenda Setting and Framing
4. Organisational Change and Institution Building
5. Policy, Tool and Knowledge Development
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Generate Policy Options
Competencies in the Change Framework
Desired
Outcome
Map Politics Coalitions/Animation/Change
Policies/Tools/Methods
Propositions Decisions
2. Building and Animating Coalitions
3. Thought Leadership, Agenda Setting, and Framing
4. Facilitating Organisational Change and Institution
Building
5. Generating Policies, Tools and Methods
1. Strategic
Thinking
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• Need to shift investment focus on a huge scale; UK €1 trillion to 2030
• High levels of political risk and price volatility (oil/carbon/technology)
• Much investment needed in new markets and business models e.g. energy services/efficiency; forest protection; smart and super grids
• Market and technology often both at early stage so unattractive investment area for private capital
• Financial crisis has lowered ability of utilities to fund change
Response from many private investors is to not to invest
The Challenge of Low Carbon Transition
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• Increase the Risk/Reward ratio for high carbon investment and decrease it for low carbon investment
• High Carbon Investment: Reward driven by oil price; risk only increases due to future impact of carbon policy on asset returns.
• Low Carbon Investment
– Reward driven by carbon price, subsidies, feed-in tariffs etc
– Risk can be lowered by: regulation and locking-in policy; direct intervention on carbon/clean energy price, public investment and/or govt risk guarantees
A solely reward-focused strategy may not deliver and pays extra-profits for (mis)perceptions of political risk
Financial Logic of Govt Intervention
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UK Green Investment Bank
• Independent, government financed bank for delivering low carbon transition
• Four main functions:
– Provider of new funds for low carbon investment via Green Bonds
– An aggregator of low carbon projects for bond financing;
– De-risking project finance (guarantees; debt finance);
– Advisor to government on financeable policy design;
• Capitalisation of £6-10 billion to leverage £150-300 billion investment
March 2014 E3G 18
Delivery of necessary
UK low carbon
investment
Multi-stakeholder
“Green Recovery” group
Political engagement with
Govt and main parties • Conservative support
• Party Manifestos
• Multiple Industry Voices
• Transform-UK Coalition
• Green Stimulus
• Green Bonds
• GIB
• “In Principle” May ‘10
• £3bn capital 2011
• First deals 2012
GIB Change Process
• GIB Commission
• Institutional analysis
• Consultation with banks
• EE financing analysis
Winning Energy Efficiency in the UK: The final push
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The challenge ahead
The Ask
The UK Government to pledge revenues from
carbon trading and tax to deliver a scaled
energy efficiency programme
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Environmentalism 20
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Feasibility Study
Financing Study
• Need “Big Tent” Coalition
• Resolve Fuel Poverty vs
Environment Split
• Cross sector coalition
• Activist base
• MP mobilisation
• Recycle carbon tax
to UK insulation
programme
Party
Manifesto Pledges
2014
Energy Bill Revolution
• EE as infrastructure
•Detailed mechanisms design
Make all of UK housing
stock super-energy
effcient
The prize
£64 Billion
The world’s biggest energy efficiency
programme
for homes
The impact
• Quadrupled carbon savings
• Generation of 120K-200K jobs
• 9 million households brought out of fuel poverty
Biggest Fuel Poverty Alliance Ever Created
Generate and sustain media interest
National front page Local coverage extensive
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Environmentalism
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Generate and sustain Parliamentary support
• 240 MPs have signed an Early Day Motion in support of the Energy Bill Revolution
• This needs to be expanded and translated into Manifesto commitments ahead of the 2015 General Election
Progress is good ….. but we have a long way still to go
….
The revolution: activating the alliance
Activism target
200,000
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Environmentalism
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Simplicity not Simplistic
“I would not give a fig for the simplicity this side of complexity. However, I would give my life for the simplicity on the other side of complexity”
Oliver Wendell Holmes
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Produce Compelling Propositions
Most propositions fail to meet test of:
•Credibility: will it really make a difference?
•Delivery: can we actually make this happen?
•Desirability: Do the costs and benefits (including politics) add up?
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Use creative ways to break out of stuck policy conversations
• Reframing the problem to bring in new constituencies:
– “Building an EU super grid will allow all of Europe’s low carbon resources to be used efficiently”
– “We cannot deliver sustainable energy security by undermining other countries’ climate security”
• Looking to the longer term:
– “Our climate policy needs to develop the technology options needed beyond 2020 and the grid infrastructures to use them”
– “Fossil energy prices will continue to rise – making UK housing stock efficient is a critical infrastructure investment for UK security and competiveness”
• Bundling multiple policy benefits:
– “The GIB can support growth and jobs in the UK regions through the economic recovery”
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“It ain’t what we do it’s the way that we do it – and that’s what gets results”
Fun Boy Three, 1981
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Key Objectives – What?
Importance/Change Analysis • Brainstorm key objectives • Map onto axes – Change/Importance
• Group key clusters of objectives • Use as input to Objectives/Hypothesis Tree
Easy to Change
Hard to Change
Least Important
Most Important
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What type of Outcome?
Agreement
Full agreement with course of action
Partnership
Active collaboration in reaching outcome
Acceptance
Passive willingness not to block action may still disagree
Alignment
Some commonality on
objectives/strategy but disagreements over tactics
Passive
Agree
Active
Accept
March 2009 E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism
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Influence Mapping (I) – Who & How?
Purpose Mapping chains of influence on organisations/decisions
Inputs Target decision/organisation Detailed knowledge of context Outputs Visual map of formal and informal links
between key actors Team view of influencing environment Gap analysis and first prioritisation of
influencing pathways Context Ideally with implementing team
March 2009 E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism
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Key Stakeholders – Who?
Importance/Change Analysis • Brainstorm key stakeholders • Map onto axes – such as Change/Importance
Easy to Change
Hard to Change
Least Important
Most Important
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Mapping Example: Energy Review
Accelerate RE and EE
Status Quo RE and EE
Pro- New Nuclear
Anti- New Nuclear Unions
(GMB; TGWU; Amicus; Prospect)
Unison ENGOs
(Foe; GP; WWF; WEN) Pro-RE Academics
(SPRU/SEG; Imperial; ERC)
Pro-Nuclear Academics
(RAE; Ian Fells; Dieter Helm; MIT)
Walt Paterson Catherine Mitchell
CBI
Climate Scientists
(Exeter Papers etc)
OXERA City Analysts
Energy Companies
(Eon; RWE etc)
Commentators Simon Jenkins etc
Public Opinion?
Libdems Tories?
UKBCSE Foreign Policy Centre
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Influence Mapping – How?
Technique
1. Identify key decision maker/organisation –
place in centre of flip chart
2. Brainstorm other key actors – write on Post-Its and place/write on flip chart
3. Join actors using formal (solid) and informal (dotted) influencing lines
4. Identify contextual/environmental actors outside decision-making structures
5. Identify priority influencing chains and gaps in knowledge/ influencing impact
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Example: UK Nuclear Decision
No 10
• Geoffrey Norris
• Matthew Taylor
• Ivan Rogers
PM
DTI • Malcolm Wicks
• Alan Johnson
Energy Review Team
Energy and Environment Committee
• John Prescott
• Margaret Beckett
• Jack Straw
• Alistair Darling (Transport and Scotland)
Sir Nigel Shienwald
Peter Hain –Wales and NI
• Electric Utilities • Banks/Analysts
Sir David King
• Shriti Vadera
• Mike Jacobs
CX
Labour Backbenchers
Brian Wilson
Scottish Parties
Kim Darroch
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Policy Funnel: When, What & How?
Purpose Identifying timeline, modes and campaign priorities for influencing an organisation or decision
Inputs Detailed knowledge of decision context – including from influence mapping
Outputs Map of possible modes of potential influencing and timeline
Set of possible interventions
Prioritisation/allocation of interventions
Context Ideally with implementing team
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Understanding the Decision Process: The Policy Funnel
General
Opinion
Public
Debate
Policy
Process
Final
Decision
Concepts/Research
Questions/Framing
Solutions/ Problems
Threats/ Offers
Who’s Reputation?
What Coalition?
Which Champion?
What Access & Levers?
Op
tio
n S
pa
ce
March 2014 E3G 41
Thank You
I can be contacted at [email protected]
Materials can be found at www.e3g.org
