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DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK MARCH 2017

DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

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Page 1: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK

MARCH 2017

Page 2: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

MARKET DEVELOPMENTS - SUMMARY

Dry Bulk Market Outlook

• a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge

• Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4 % to 83.5 Mn T inFebruary, mainly due to restocking efforts. Stockpiles grew by a8.2 % in February, the largest month-on-month increase in 3years.

• TC rates increased from an average of USD 11.4 k per day inFebruary to a current USD 14 k per day.

• Restocking is a clear short term development, but other mediumto long term developments could contribute to the bull market.

• New iron ore from Vale’s recently opened S11D mine shouldcontribute to softening iron ore prices, thus increasing the appealof imports for Chinese buyers.

• In March 2016, the Capesize orderbook totalled 7 % of the fleet,while the ratio currently stands at 2 %. Last year, the capesizefleet shrunk by 0.1 per cent to 193.4 Mn Dwt.

• But VLOC orderbook at 23.1 Mn Dwt in total

• The Panamax and Kamsarmax segments also trending positive,driven largely by an increase in cargoes out of South Americacarrying grain, and price differences in coal between the Chinesedomestic market and the import market, with imports trading atup to a 10 per cent discount.

• The recent ban on coal imports from North Korea is expected tocontribute to a firming in demand for the majority of 2017. Thecountry supplies 22.8 Mn tonnes of anthracite to China, about 85% of Chinese anthracite imports. We expect the ban to create 1.6% extra demand growth for the segment in 2017.

• Handysizes and smaller segments also benefitting from thecurrent improvements in the market. 1 year TC rates haveincreased 19.2 % to USD 7,750 and 26.6 % to USD 9,500 forHandysizes and Supramaxes respectively since the start of theyear. For Supra’s this is the highest rate since end August 2015.

• The short term nature of many of the above factors may well leadto an overinflated sentiment that runs ahead of fundamentals.

• Supply side discipline essential for market recovery. Renewednewbuilding activity could compromise and prolong anysustainable improvement in the market.

• Uncertainty on upcoming enforcement of the IMO’s Ballast WaterManagement convention, set to happen on September 8 2017.

• 659 vessels will enter the demolition candidate pool (ships 20years and older).

• Low sulphur regulations that are set to enter into force in 2020will add to the cost of operations.

2

March 2017

Page 3: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

ASSUMPTIONS FOR AFFINITY’S FORECASTS

- Estimated deliveries by size band

SUPPLY

Dry cargo contracting to stay slow

Dry cargo demolitions to continue

Removals from Orderbook (approx. 11.0 Mn Dwt in 2016) to continue as yards fail and orders are renegotiated or cancelled

Ballast Water Treatment System to reduce effective lifespan of bulk carriers to around 22 years compared to a long-run average of 25

Size / Mn Dwt

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Handy / Supra / Ultramax 13.5 4.2 5.3 5.9 5.7

Panamax / Kamsarmax 10.8 1.5 2.0 3.1 4.1

Capesize 15.2 14.9 11.2 5.8 7.7

3

DEMAND

Base case: only marginal changes in demand growth going forward to 2021.

Owners should consider this before investing

Page 4: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

SUPPLY MUST REACT TO FLAT DEMAND GROWTH FOR DRY CARGO OWNERS TO SURVIVE

Combined bulk carrier fleet supply and demand scenarios to 2021

Our base case is that the dry cargo markets will see an aggregate of zero demand growth out to 2021. Even if demand growth returns to its historic average of 4.4% per annum, owners must continue to manage supply. Thus our base case supply scenario envisages 30% slippage in the orderbook, the cancellation of overdue orders, slow steaming being a permanent fixture and

the average life of a bulker being reduced to 22 years by the Ballast Water Management Convention (comes into force 8 September 2017). In this case, supply growth levels off to zero with the fleet at around 700 Mn Dwt, giving steady utilisation of around 80%, slightly above the long term average of 78%.

4

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Mn

Dw

t

Fleet, 30% slippage, overdue shipscancelled, 25 yr life

Fleet, 30% slippage, overdue shipscancelled, 22 yr life,

Fleet, 30% slippage, overdue shipscancelled, 22 yr life, 10% slow steaming2011 on

Demand at 0% growth

Demand growth at historic averagelevels

Demand at -2% growth

Page 5: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

…WHEN EXPRESSED AS CAPACITY UTILISATION, THERE ARE CLEAR IMPLICATIONS FOR FREIGHT RATES…

Combined all dry bulk capacity utilisation scenarios to 2021

The BDI averaged 673 points in 2016,and while the market has improvedsince then (average BDI for 2017 YTDis 870) market movements remain

positional rather than fundamental.Prospects for the BDI remainunderwhelming even with strictsupply-side discipline.

5

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

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5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

BD

I

CA

PA

CIT

Y U

TILI

SATI

ON

Base Case Capacity Utllisation historic average utilisation rate BDI

Page 6: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

CAPESIZE:

Capesize utilisation scenarios

Our base case includes cancellation of all overdueorders, accounts for 30% slippage in deliveryschedules, assumes all ships sail at 12.5 knots onaverage, and that average economic life is 22years. The base case also assumes 2% annual

demand growth for iron ore, however this willmostly be taken up by the VLOC segment. The stepdown in utilisation is a consequence of VLOCdeliveries in 2017. VLOC orders dominatedcontracting Dwt in 2016.

6

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Best CaseCapacityUtllisation

Base CaseCapacityUtilisation

Worst CaseCapacityutilisation

Page 7: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

PANAMAX / KAMSARMAX:

Panamax / Kamsarmax utilisation base case

Panamax utilisation in our model is a function ofzero demand growth and the same supply sideconstraints as per Capesizes. While the prospectfor grain and coal remain positive in the near term,

the orderbook remains onerous and realimprovement will only happen when demolitionshappen to ships in their mid-teens on average.

7

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Best caseCapacityUtilisation

Base CaseCapacityUtllisation

WorstCaseCapacityutilisation

Page 8: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

HANDY / SUPRA / ULTRAMAX:

Utilisation base case

Prospects for the geared bulk carrier fleet are lessdepressing on the basis that demand continues tobe seen to grow especially in the minor bulks, grainand coal (for now; long term prospects for coalremain weak), supporting these ship types, whichalso steal cargo from the larger and older Panamax

bulkers. Forecasting freight markets remains adifficult exercise however as the geared bulkermarkets continue to evolve with ship sizes. Ourbest guess for 2017: watch copper, grains andcoke, beware steel products tariffs, look forpositional opportunities. It is an operators’ market.

8

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Best caseCapacityUtilisation

Base CaseCapacityUtllisation

Worst CaseCapacityutilisation

Page 9: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

DEMAND TO ONLY INCREASE

MARGINALLY BY THE END OF DECADE

March 2017

Page 10: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

WEEKLY CHINESE IRON ORE INVENTORIES

10

Dry Bulk Market Outlook

March 2017

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v 2

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v 2

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6

Mar

20

17

Mn

To

nn

es

Page 11: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS

Iron ore imports to China havebeen steadily increasing due tohigh availability of cheap orefrom Australia and Brazil. Thisdespite a reduction in steelmaking capacity, supported bycapacity cuts in China’s domesticiron ore production.

Chinese iron ore is of low qualityrelative to imports, and oftenvastly more expensive to extractand transport to its end user.

11

Dry Bulk Market Outlook

March 2017

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1,000

1,200

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YTD

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Mn

T

Chinese Iron Ore Imports

Page 12: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

INDIAN COAL CONSUMPTION

Indian energy consumption is onthe rise and is closely correlatedto its urbanised population.

should India’s urbanisation ratecontinue at the current pace,which for the past decade hasbeen 1.14 per cent per year, wecan expect India’s coalconsumption to increase tobetween 450 and 500 Mn tonnesby 2020 and approximately 380Mn tonnes by 2017. That’s up 5.5per cent from 2014 which saw360 Mn tonnes consumed.

However, a mounting problemwith pollution spurring policychanges and the increasingavailability of renewable energysources may see this relationshipweaken.

R² = 0.9899

0

50

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350

400

15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35

Co

al C

on

sum

pti

on

(M

n T

)

% Urbanised Population

Percentage of Indian Urbanised Population / Coal Consumption

12

Dry Bulk Market Outlook

March 2017

Page 13: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

SEABORNE COAL BY VESSEL CATEGORYGraph shows what percentage of coal trade is carried on respective vessel types.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Handysize Supramax Ultramax Panamax Kamsarmax PostPanamax SmallCape ModernCape Newcastlemax VLOC

Per

cen

tage

13

Dry Bulk Market Outlook

March 2017

Page 14: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

SEABORNE IRON ORE BY VESSEL CATEGORYGraph shows what percentage of iron ore trade is carried on respective vessel types.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Handysize Supramax Ultramax Panamax Kamsarmax Post Panamax Small Cape Modern Cape Newcastlemax VLOC

Per

cen

tage

14

Dry Bulk Market Outlook

March 2017

Page 15: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

SEABORNE TRADE DEVELOPMENT

15

Dry Bulk Market Outlook

March 2017

0

1,250

2,500

3,750

5,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Est.2016

Est.2017

Est.2018

Est.2019

Est.2020

Mn

T

Iron Ore Coal Grain Soybean Minor Bulk

Combined % growth for 2016 is estimatedto have been around 3% and is expected to average about 1% towards the end of the decade.

Page 16: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

TONNE MILE GROWTH

16

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14

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F

Tr T

on

ne

Mile

s

Iron Ore Coal Grain & Agricultural Products

Dry Bulk Market Outlook

March 2017

Page 17: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

L IMITED CONTRACTING FOR NB

DELIVERIES SET TO DECLINE

STRONG DEMOLIT IONS TO LAST

March 2017

Page 18: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

CONTRACTING AND DEMOLITION: HOPE FOR THE FUTUREGraphs show vessel contracting and demolitions for vessels ranging from 10,000 Dwt and upwards.

18

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All Bulker Contracting

Number of Ships Mn Dwt

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All Dry Demolitions

Number of Ships Mn Dwt

Page 19: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

DRY BULK FLEET AGE GROUPS

19

Table showing all size types by age in number of ships.

00-04 05-09 10-14 15-19 20-24 25+ Total Orderbook

of which ordered

before 2014

years years years years years years Fleet as % of Total Fleet

VLOC 69 3 63 93 6 2 40 16 220 31%

Newcastlemax 36 5 121 65 43 0 3 0 232 16%

Capesize 27 8 211 579 180 83 35 6 1094 2%

Small Capesize 1 1 24 96 3 3 0 1 127 1%

PostPanamax 35 1 124 266 60 28 8 4 490 7%

Panamax 23 14 150 297 266 282 134 29 1158 2%

Kamsarmax 98 5 404 356 55 0 0 0 815 12%

Ultramax 184 38 535 69 0 0 0 0 604 30%

Supramax 26 5 261 1148 363 142 0 0 1914 1%

Handymax 14 3 112 68 21 131 169 52 553 3%

Handysize 162 24 639 1197 278 229 223 194 2760 6%

Total Fleet 675 107 2644 4234 1275 900 612 302 9967 7%

% of Total Fleet 7% 1.1% 27% 42% 13% 9% 6% 3%

Dry Bulk Fleet By Number of Ships

Orderbook

Page 20: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

DRY BULK FLEET AGE GROUPS

20

Table showing all size types by age in Mn Dwt.

00-04 05-09 10-14 15-19 20-24 25+

Total Orderbook

of which ordered

before 2014

years years years years years yearsFleet as % of Total Fleet

VLOC 23.13 0.79 17.95 28.16 1.48 0.46 11.16 4.38 63.59 36%

Newcastlemax 7.49 1.04 25.11 13.44 8.80 0.00 0.62 0.00 47.98 16%

Capesize 4.80 1.41 37.86 103.31 31.67 14.17 5.43 0.91 193.36 2%

Small Capesize 0.11 0.11 2.69 10.90 0.31 0.32 0.00 0.11 14.33 1%

PostPanamax 2.92 0.07 10.72 24.49 5.31 2.33 0.73 0.36 43.93 7%

Panamax 1.66 1.09 11.34 22.67 20.19 20.92 9.48 1.92 86.53 2%

Kamsarmax 8.00 0.41 33.03 29.13 4.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 66.70 12%

Ultramax 11.52 2.41 33.38 4.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 37.64 31%

Supramax 1.46 0.28 14.79 64.82 19.63 7.33 0.00 0.00 106.57 1%

Handymax 0.61 0.13 5.15 3.12 0.99 6.13 7.67 2.26 25.33 2%

Handysize 5.89 0.84 22.47 36.85 8.01 6.29 5.70 4.92 84.24 7%

Total Fleet 67.60 8.57 214.49 341.16 100.92 57.96 40.79 14.88 770.20 9%

% of Total Fleet 9% 1.1% 28% 44% 13% 8% 5% 2%

Dry Bulk Fleet By Mn Dwt

Orderbook

Page 21: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

-1000

-500

0

500

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1500

1960

1962

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Num

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s

Additions Removals %Change

DRY BULK CUMULATIVE FLEET

Including dry bulk carriers over 10,000 Dwt

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Mn D

WT

Dry Bulk Fleet Profile→

→ The dry bulk fleet saw a rapid expansion following

the large scale ordering at the peak in 2008. Fleet

growth has slowed down significantly in line with

the current condition of the freight market,

predominately due to high levels of demolition

and minimal contracting activity.

While the orderbook for 2017 is very large, high

levels of slippage are expected. The low

orderbook for 2018 is indicative of the

diminished appetite for new tonnage, as the

market struggles with a slump on the demand

side.

Considering that around 47 Mn Dwt delivered in

2016 vs the more than 60 Mn Dwt originally

scheduled to get delivered, it seems unlikely that

all the 43 Mn Dwt scheduled to deliver in the

balance of the year will in fact arrive on time. If

shipyard performance in 2016 is consistent, then

over one third of this year’s scheduled deliveries

will be pushed back to later years or dropped

altogether.

Page 22: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

KAMSARMAX

The Kamsarmax segment is defined as vessels between 80,000Dwt and 84,999 Dwt with a beam less than 32.26, a LoA less than 236m and a draft less than 21m.

22

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46

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Mn D

WT

Kamsarmax Fleet Profile

0

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Num

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s

Fleet Orderbook

The average fleet age in the Kamsarmax segment

is 4.6 years.

A large volume of deliveries in 2012 can be

attributed to heavy investment in the sector prior

to the collapse of the freight markets in the latter

part of 2008, as well as delays and rescheduled

deliveries.

Page 23: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

PANAMAX

The graphs show the development of the Panamax segment with the year on year percentage change in fleet size.

23

-20%

-16%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

-12-10-8-6-4-202468

10

1960

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Mn D

WT

Panamax Fleet Development

-40%

-30%

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Num

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s

Additions Deletions %Change

This data shows the development of the Panamax

fleet, taking into account all capacity added to the

sector and deletions.

Recent high demolition activity has led to

negative fleet growth in the Panamax sector.

January 2017 continues that trend, but at a lower

intensity, with 0.5 Mn Dwt scrapped; this is 6 per

cent of total Panamax demolitions in 2016. This

is partially due to the increased popularity of the

Kamsarmax segment.

Page 24: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

ULTRAMAX

Ultramax is defined as 60,000 to 69,999 Dwt, built after 2009, and are geared, usually 5 hold / 5 hatch arrangement and less than 200m LOA.

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Ultramax Fleet Profile

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Fleet Orderbook

The Dry Bulk fleet is constantly evolving, thus the

Ultramax sector only started being delivered from

2010 onwards.

The current orderbook accounts for 30per cent of

the current fleet.

Page 25: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

HANDYMAX

The graphs show the development of the Handymax fleet, with year on year additions and deletions as well as the annual percentage change.

25

-20%

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-6

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Mn D

WT

Handymax Fleet Development

-30%-24%-18%-12%-6%0%6%12%18%24%30%

-100

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1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

NU

mber

of Ship

s

Additions Removals %Change

These graphs clearly show how demolition figures

in this segment spiked as a result of international

financial turmoil; noticeably in 1986 and more

recently in the aftermath of the 2008 financial

crisis, the latter of which has resulted in

sustained negative growth since 2009.

The fleet is also shrinking as bulk carrier designs

have evolved into Supramax and Ultramax.

Page 26: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

DRY BULK SLIPPAGE BY SIZE BAND – START OF PERIOD

26

Slippage and Cancellations.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2013 2014 2015 2016

Page 27: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

EARNINGS IMPROVING

BUT STILL RATHER LOW

March 2017

Page 28: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

CAPESIZE TC RATES AND BCI

28

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Jan

-04

Jun

-04

No

v-0

4

Ap

r-0

5

Sep

-05

Feb

-06

Jul-

06

Dec

-06

May

-07

Oct

-07

Mar

-08

Au

g-0

8

Jan

-09

Jun

-09

No

v-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Sep

-10

Feb

-11

Jul-

11

Dec

-11

May

-12

Oct

-12

Mar

-13

Au

g-1

3

Jan

-14

Jun

-14

No

v-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Sep

-15

Feb

-16

Jul-

16

Dec

-16

BC

I 4/5

TC

USD

/ D

ay

1YR TC BCI

Page 29: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

PANAMAX TC RATES AND BPI

29

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

BP

I

USD

/ D

ay

1YR TC BPI

Page 30: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

SUPRAMAX TC RATES AND BSI

30

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Jan

-06

May

-06

Sep

-06

Jan

-07

May

-07

Sep

-07

Jan

-08

May

-08

Sep

-08

Jan

-09

May

-09

Sep

-09

Jan

-10

May

-10

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

May

-16

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

BSI

USD

/ D

ay

1YR TC BSI

Page 31: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

HANDYSIZE TC RATES AND BHSI

31

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Sep

-06

Jan

-07

May

-07

Sep

-07

Jan

-08

May

-08

Sep

-08

Jan

-09

May

-09

Sep

-09

Jan

-10

May

-10

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

May

-16

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

BH

SI

USD

/ D

ay

1YR TC BHSI

Page 32: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

RECOVERY IN 5 YO PRICES FOR

PANAMAX AND HANDYSIZE

March 2017

Page 33: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

PANAMAX ASSET VALUES

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mn

USD

Resale 5 YO 10 YO 15 YO

Page 34: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

HANDYSIZE ASSET VALUES

34

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mn

USD

NB Resale 5 YO 10 YO

Page 35: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

AFFINITY GLOBAL OFFICES

LO N D O N

H

SY

M

P

Dry Cargo

Tankers LNG

Sale & Purchase

Newbuilding

Research

S EO U L

Sale & Purchase

Newbuilding

S I N G A P O R E

Dry CargoSale & Purchase

S Y D N E Y, M E L B O U R N E & P E R T H

Dry Cargo

H O U S TO N

Tankers

SI

B E I J I N G

Tankers Dry Cargo

LNG

Finance Valuations

Tankers

L

B

SE

S A N T I A G O

Dry Cargo

Tankers

SA

H

35

Page 36: DRY BULK MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon Web Services Bulk Market Outlook • a rather healthy start to the year, with capes leading the charge • Iron ore imports to China increased by 13.4

DISCLAIMER

The information contained within this report is given in good faith based on the current market situation at the time of preparing this report and as such is specific to that point only. While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation and collation of information in this report Affinity (Shipping) LLP (and all associated and affiliated companies) does not accept any liability whatsoever for any errors of fact or opinion based on such facts.

Some industry information relating to the shipping industry can be difficult to find or establish. Some data may not be available and may need to be estimated or assessed and where such data may be limited or unavailable subjective assessment may have to be used.

No market analysis can guarantee accuracy. The usual fundamentals may not always govern the markets, for example psychology, market cycles and external events (such as acts of god or developments in future technologies) could cause markets to depart from their natural/usual course. Such external events have not been considered

as part of this analysis. Historical market behaviour does not predict future market behaviour and shipping is an inherently high risk business. You should therefore consider a variety of information and potential outcomes when making decisions based on the information contained in this report.

All information provided by Affinity (Shipping) LLP is without any guarantee whatsoever. Affinity (Shipping) LLP or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates will not be liable for any consequences thereof.

This report is intended solely for the information of the email recipient account and must not be passed or divulged to any third parties whatsoever without the written permission of Affinity (Shipping) LLP. Affinity (Shipping) LLP accepts no liability to any third parties whatsoever. If permission is granted, you must disclose the full report including all disclaimers, and not selected excerpts which may be taken out of context.

© 2017 Affinity Research LLP44th Floor, The Leadenhall Building, 122 Leadenhall Street, London EC3A 8EE, United KingdomTel +44 (0) 20 3142 0100Email [email protected]

36