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Japan and India Have Closer Ties

Foreign Minister Gemba and his

Indian counterpart have recently

taken steps to increase cooperation

between the two countries in key

areas, from nuclear energy to naval

exercises, trade and international

coordination. This is part of

Japan's attempt to engage with the

rising powers, diversify its

partnerships and create other

control mechanisms to moderate

China's rise.

EAST ASIANSECURITY AND DEFENCE

DIGEST

EDITOR’S NOTE - TIAGO MAURÍCIOResearcher at Kyoto University and Orient Institute

In the latest cabinet reshuffle, PM

Noda sacked Naoki Tanaka and swore in

Satoshi Morimoto. The profiles of both the

outgoing and incoming defence heads are

quintessential opposites, as virtually all

reports have stated. If the replacement of

Ichikawa for Tanaka did not raise any

expectations regarding the possibilities forimprovement of the defence post within

Japanese administrations, Morimoto has

certainly aroused the attention of many,

both inside and outside of Japan.

Prime Minister Noda's Cabinet, like

any other cabinet for the past few years,

has been subjected to the ups and downs

of politicking. In the realm of security and

defence, however, the toll appears to be

unreasonably high for a democratic regime

with a volunteers-only military force.

 Arguably lacking the educational culture of

debating security affairs in all levels of

society, the constant coming and going of

defence ministers is no good service to the

country. This is particularly true of the

deference with which public opinion deals

with these matters.

It remains to be seen whether this

appointment will have a positive impact inJapan's capacity to deal with its security

and defence concerns in an age of

uncertainty. Recruiting an official with

experience in the Ministry of Defence and

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, besides being

an accomplished scholar, is surely a

convincing step in that direction,

considering the poor record other Defence

chiefs have left behind.

!

!

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China's Mistakes are US's Opportunities

“The PRC has succeeded in

mismanaging its foreign policy toward

 Asia over the past several years. Chinese

assertiveness toward its neighbors,

especially on territorial issues, has

squandered good will and a general

receptiveness to Beijing. The United

States should seize this opportunity and,

consistent with the so-called Asia pivot,commit the resources necessary to

strengthen its ties to the region. ”

“Disappearing Horizons: U.S.–China

Relations After Shangri-La” (Dean Cheng

- The Heritage Foundation).

Is There a "Pyongyang Factor" in US

Elections?

“The North Koreans don't care much

for democracy, but they sure enjoy

negotiating with democracies in an

election year -- especially when they

detect that mission number one in

Washington is to avoid troubling foreignpolicy headlines until after November 6.

The Obama administration actually

started out with a pretty tough stance on

North Korea, captured in an impressive

statement of policy issued by Hillary

Clinton while in Thailand in July 2009. By

a b o u t m i d - 2 0 1 1 , h o w e v e r , t h e

administration began getting nervous that

its lack of "engagement" might tempt

Pyongyang to conduct nuclear or missile

tests. Once again, engagement slipped

from being a marginally useful means to

the end of the policy in itself. After a flurryof negotiations the North agreed in the

February 29 "Leap Year" deal that it

would stop nuclear and missile tests for a

while and let IAEA inspectors back at the

Yongbyon nuclear facility in exchange for

food aid (now euphemistically called

"nutritional assistance"). Nobody in the

administration was convinced this was a

breakthrough, but it seemed to kick the

North Korea problem down the road for a

while. Problem solved.”

“How North Korea Plays Us in an Election

Year” (Mike Green - Foreign Policy).

SecDef Panetta's Results in Asia

“The visit of Secretary of Defense Leon

Panetta to Southeast Asia last week

reaffirmed the Obama administration’s

commitment to an expanding U.S.

military presence in the Asia-Pacific.

 Although the administration has remained

relatively mum in recent weeks about the

so-called “pivot” (leading some to

speculate that the strategy’s political

viability was undergoing reassessment),

and despite the looming threat of massive

cuts to the U.S. defense budget, Panetta

asserted the position in a June 2 address

in Singapore: “Make no mistake — in a

steady, deliberate, and sustainable way

the United States military is rebalancing

and bringing an enhanced capability

development to this vital region.” Here,

we highlight the most important

takeaways from Panetta’s nine-day trip,

and their implications for both U.S. policy

and the regional dynamic.”

“Trip by Panetta Affirms Shifting U.S.

Stance” (Joshua Kurlantzick - Asia

Unbound).

South Korea Is Attracting More Attention

in Washington

“Despite the importance of the U.S.-

South Korea relationship, it’s often

overshadowed here by other bilateral

arrangements. And, when the spotlight

does shine on this relationship, it’s

frequently because of the military threat

posed by North Korea.”

“Talking South Korea” (Jason Miks - The

Diplomat).

The Value of the Littoral Combat Ship in

 America's Asia-Pacific Strategy

“While the Littoral Combat Ship is not

suited for the front lines of a war with

China, it would provide vital protection to

US supply lines in such conflict, saidUnder Secretary of the Navy Robert

Work, and against Iran, LCS would be in

the battle from "day one," with eight

LCSs ultimately operating out of Bahrain.

Indeed, the two potential theaters of war

are so different that the Navy may

consider focusing the "much more

maneuverable" Lockheed Martin version

of the LCS on fighting fast attack boats in

the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf,

while the very different General Dynamics

design, with its larger flight deck and fueltanks, operates primarily in the vast

reaches of the Pacific.”

“Navy Needs Both LCS Versions For War

With China, Iran” (Sydney Freedberg Jr. -

 AOL Defense).

If US Didn't Have Bases in Asia, Would It

 Act the Same Way?

“Kelley asks: if U.S. leaders tried to

pursue a policy of partial retrenchment,

what alliances commitments might they

choose to limit or terminate, and which

allies would still be considered important?

F ramin g the ques t ion th is way

acknowledges that there may be some

r e p u t a t i o na l i s sues invo lved in

downgrading a long-standing security

partnership, even if its original strategic

rationale has diminished or even

disappeared. But what if we let our

imaginations really run free and frame the

puzzle a bit differently? What if we were

starting from scratch, and doing a "zero-

based" assessment of U.S. allianceoptions? If historical ties weren't an issue,

what features would you look for in a

strategic partner and how might

 America's future alliance portfolio differ

from its current set of arrangements?”

“Starting from scratch: Zero-based

alliance formation” (Stephen Walt -

Foreign Policy).

Is American Hegemony Sustainable?

“The OP was intended as an

emergency exercise if the US were toface a truly significant crisis that forced

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retrenchment. The purpose was to ask

who are the most important US allies and

commitments if we were forced to

choose. Right now, the US is not

choosing. We are all over the place; if

anything, we are taking on more

commitments ( I raq, A fghanis tan,

Pakistan, Yemen, the Asian pivot). As I

tried to say in the second post, I don’t

think we are about to pull out of Japan or

Egypt, but if we get to the point where wereally can’t afford globe-spanning

hegemony anymore, it would be help to

try to prioritize what is genuinely

strategically necessary, from what are

‘extras.’ One doesn’t hear this much,

except for Ron Paul, whose debate

performances motivated the post.”

“More on US Allies: America’s ‘Exorbitant

Privilege’ means it can borrow to Sustain

Hegemony Longer than Anyone Ever

Expected” (Robert Kennedy- Asian

Security Blog).

The Emerging Trends in East Asian

Security Are Becoming Clearer

“Maintaining Asia’s peace and

stability will be a challenge over the next

few decades, as key adjustments are

needed to manage the transition from an

order based on US primacy to an order

that accommodates the rise of Chinese

power. China is no longer satisfied with its

perceived polit ical and strategic

subordination to the US. The patternsand understandings of the global order

that evolved in the post-Cold War period

are now deeply contested, resulting in

global and regional arrangements that are

often overlapping and — at times —

competing.”

“Five principles for a new security order in

the Asia Pacific” (Jochen Prantl - East

 Asia Forum).

Kim Jong-Il's Dying Wish

“Speculations about the Last Will and

Testament of the late North Korean leader

Kim Jong-Il, who died on 17 December

last year, are mounting and raise many

questions about the future of inter-Korean

relations. Separate parts of the alleged

document have been recently obtained

by the South Korean think tanks, the

Sejong Institute and North Korea

Strategic Information Service Centre.

The purported Will was obtained via a

person very close to a top North Korean

official. It says that the North shouldmake peace with the South, but only after

the current President Lee Myung Bak’s

official term is over. When a new leader

comes to power in Seoul, North Korea

must avoid a war and should move

forward hand-in-hand with the South.

Peaceful reunification is named as the

ultimate goal for the Kim family, who has

ruled the DPRK since 1948. Concrete

policies according to the will include that

the two Koreas should consider opening

the inter-Korean rail, roads and sea links.

Moreover, the document also says that ifthe two Koreas go to war again with each

other, the devastation would leave the

entire Korean peninsula centuries behind

other countries.”

“What Did Kim Jong-il Want?” (Leonid

Petrov - Korea Vision).

Comparing with the Atlantic, the Pacific is

Shallow in Multilateralism

“In a really helpful critique of the new

bipolarity, Andrew Carr argues that I'm

overplaying the institutional differences

between the Atlantic and Asian realms

and points out that there is no shortage of

institutions in Asia (though that figure of

700 meetings a year came as a bit of a

shock to me).

I think we need to look a bit deeper

than counting institutions and meetings.

We need to look at what those institutions

are committed to and what they do; once

we do, the differences just become

starker.”

“ Asian multilateralism is all talk” (Michael

Wesley - The Lowy Interpreter).

 Articulating AirSea Battle

“In the budget wars between the

services, "hybrid threats" and "AirSea

Battle" have become rallying buzzwords

of two opposing camps.

On one side, Army leaders talk of

hybrid threats, whose blend of guerrilla

tactics and high-tech weapons pose the

greatest plausible threat on land, nowthat Soviet-style tank armies are extinct

and the nation has largely sworn off large-

scale counterinsurgency. On the other, Air

Force and Navy leaders speak of AirSea

Battle as a way to coordinate their

expensive hardware in a high-tech war

with regional powers like China or Iran.”

“The Network: Where Hybrid War Meets

 AirSea Battle” (Sydney Freedberg Jr. -

 AOL Defense).

Will More International Turmoil Hinder

China's Diplomacy?

“Last week, I asked a U.N. Security

Council diplomat to give me a read out of

China's reaction to the Houla massacre of

108 civilians during a closed-door session

of the 15-nation council. The diplomat

paused for a moment, then confessed to

being totally unable to recall what was

said.

It was probably something about the

need to pursue a peaceful outcome to the

conflict and the importance of respecting

sovereignty and letting the Syrians work it

out themselves, the diplomat surmised.The same thing, in other words, that

China says about virtually every crisis that

comes before the Security Council.

China has largely weathered the Syrian

diplomatic crisis, which has brought it

into direct conflict with the Arab world, by

drawing as little attention to itself as

possible and letting Russia take the heat

for sheltering President Bashar al-Assad

from Security Council pressure.

But the effort to remain under the radar

will be tested this month as China begins

its month-long stint as Security Councilpresident, a role that began Monday with

an obligatory council presidency press

conference that focused mostly on Syria.”

“ A tear in China's invisibility

cloak” (Colum Lynch - Foreign Policy).

Why Has China Downgraded Its Presence

at the Shangri-La Dialogue?

“Speculation is rampant as to why

China is a relative no-show. Talking with

U.S. officials and Asia watchers, the twomost likely reasons seem to be:: first,

China did not want a repeat of last year’s

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contentious appearance, and second,

Beijing still just doesn’t feel there’s much

benefit in showing up (clearly, the two are

linked). True, there are other forums for

discussing Asian security issues, such as

the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting +

and the East Asian Summit, both of which

are still evolving. But Shangri-La is going

on its 11th year, and has become a

showcase for many smaller nations.

Vietnam, which also sent a smallerdelegation this year, has used the

dialogue as a way to increase its regional

presence. The fact that China feels there

is little upside to engaging with senior

U.S. officials at an established multilateral

gathering might be an important

indication of how differently Washington

and Beijing view the responsibilities of

their regional roles. One year might be an

aberration, but if China consistently

snubs the Asia community at a major

gathering like this, then we’ll have a

better understanding of the limitations ofengagement with China.”

“China snubs Asia” (Michael Auslin -

 American Enterprise Institute). 

The United States Might See Its Nuclear

 Arsenal in South Korea Removed

“Last month, the U.S. House Armed

Serv ices Committee enacted an

amendment to the Fiscal Year 2013

National Defense Authorization Bill calling

for reconsidering the U.S. removal of allits forward-based nuclear weapons from

South Korea. The amend ment ’s

supporters justified the proposal by

noting the refusal of the new North

Korean government, led by Kim Jong-un,

to resume nuc lear d isarmament

negotiations as well as China’s alleged

sale of “nuclear components to North

Korea . ” B ut t he Sout h Ko rean

government has correctly refused to

endorse the idea, one that’s presently

u n n e c e s s a r y a n d e v e n

counterproductive.”

“No to U.S. Nukes in South

Korea” (Richard Weitz - The Diplomat).

Diplomacy in Moscow Can Get Rough

“This winter , Michael McFaul

discovered a number of surprising things

about himself. He was imposing odious

 American holidays, like Valentine's Day

and Halloween, on the Russian people.

He perso na l l y whisk ed Russ i an

opposition politician Alexey Navalny out

of the country to Yale on a fellowship. He

was inviting opposition figures to the U.S.

Embassy "to get instructions." And he

was a pedophile. Or so his online

tormentors claimed.”

“The Undiplomat” (Julia Ioffe - Foreign

Policy).

Military Contractors Are Making Faulty

Material Amidst Crisis

“he Senate Armed Services Committee

turned its spotlight last November on the

problem of sup-par and counterfeitChinese-made parts used in U.S.

weapons programs, including Boeing's

new P-8A aircraft, the Marine Corps' V-22

Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft, and the Navy's

Los Angeles-class nuclear submarine.

Sens. Carl Levin and John McCain

hammered away at China's involvement

and the fact the PRC government does

nothing to stop it. But the following

analysis, by experts at the University of

Maryland's Center for Advanced Life

Cycle Engineering (CALCE), concludes

that American businesses are the

problem – not China.”

“U.S. Companies -- Not China -- Pose

The Real Counterfeit Parts

Problem” (Michael Pecht & Len Zuga -

 AOL Defense). 

The Arctic Might Represent a Sea of

Opportunities

“Despite the Arctic’s inhospitable

climate, there are about 4 million people

living there. The area’s development

could, if undertaken in a sustainablemanner, bring improvements to their lives.

But there’s also the risk of increased

pollution, while the disruption could

adversely affect quality of life for those

who live along the Arctic coast.

Thirty-four ships passed through the

area in 2011. In the big picture of the

global shipping industry, this is a tiny

number, though more are expected this

year . Warm summer weat her is

approaching and more vessels can be

expected to make the trip in the coming

months. What this could lead to, though,will in large part depend on how the five

 Arctic coastal states manage things.”

“Exploiting the Arctic” (Steven Borowiec -

Flashpoints). 

 AirSea Battle and Asia-pivot Are Forcing

Overhauling WWII US Bases

“As part of its emerging "Air-Sea Battle"

concept, (see Robert Haddick for more

on that) and the strategic pivot to thePacific, the U.S. military is planning to

brush out the cobwebs on a number of

long-disused facilities for potential use

during a new Pacific conflict.”

“U.S. reopening World War II bases in

Pacific” (Joshua Keating - Foreign Policy). 

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 Analysts are Generally Hopeful Regarding

Japan's New Defence Chief 

“In the latest cabinet reshuffle, PM Nodasacked Naoki Tanaka and swore in SatoshiMorimoto. The profiles of both the outgoingand inc omi ng de f enc e hea ds a requintessential opposites, as virtually allreports have stated. If the replacement of Ichikawa for Tanaka did not raise anyexpectations regarding the possibilities forimprovement of the defence post withinJapanese administrations, Morimoto hascertainly aroused the attention of many, bothinside and outside of Japan.

Prime Minister Noda's Cabinet, like any othercabinet for the past few years, has beensubjected to the ups and downs of 

politicking. In the realm of security and

defence, however, the toll appears to beunreasonably high for a democratic regimewith a volunteers-only military force. Arguablylacking the educational culture of debatingsecurity affairs in all levels of society, theconstant coming and going of defenceministers is no good service to the country. This is particularly true of the deference withwhich public opinion deals with thesematters.”

“Japan's New Defence Minister SatoshiMorimoto”

(Tiago Mauricio - JFPO).

With Routes Opening Up in the Arctic, What Are the Implications for East Asia?

“In Northeast Asia and around Japan, thisraises concerns about increased traffic and asea power struggle between Russia andChina.

If navigation on the Arctic sea routesbecomes routine, traffic between the Asianlittoral countries, including China-which hasbecome an economic power-and SouthKorea, and Europe will pick up substantially. Active communication through those routes,including the one between Northeast Asiaand the west coast of North America, wouldmean increased traffic by foreign vessels in

the Sea of Japan, the waters from the

 Tsugaru Strait to the Kuril Islands, and otherseas surrounding Japan. In such a scenario,the countries concerned would likelycompete for protection, or appropriatecontrol from the Russian viewpoint, of maritime traffic in the waters surroundingJapan.”

“Japan Should Play a Constructive Role inthe Arctic”

(Takahiro Ishihara - AJISS).

Morimoto's Defence Credentials Constitute aBreak From Previous Ministers

“Japan finally has a defense minister whoknows what he’s doing – and it couldn’tcome at a worse time. Satoshi Morimoto, aprominent national security analyst andgovernment advisor who served in both theJapan Self-Defense Forces and the ForeignMinistry, was named to the defense post onMonday. He becomes Japan’s third defenseminister since September; his predecessors,ca ree r po l i t i c i ans , we re fi red f o rincompetence.

Morimoto takes office in one of the mostchallenging defense environments of Japan’s

post-war era. China is expanding its militaryat a breakneck pace and claiming sole rightsto territory throughout the region. The U.S. is

JAPAN

HIGHLIGHTS

 THE ISSUE OF COMFORT

WOMEN HAS CONTINUED TO

POISE JAPAN’S FOREIGN

RELATIONS

!

Japan and India are

boosting their relationship

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sending troops and ships and lining up allies in amuch-publicized “pivot” towards Asia. Japan isswinging its ground forces south to face China,and debating fundamental changes in the roles,missions and operations of its self-defenseforces. Though agreement was reached to shiftthousands of Marines to locations outsideJapan, U.S. military bases on Okinawa remain avolatile domestic issue.”

“ Tokyo Puts a Pro In Charge: For a Change”

(Takahiro Ishihara - AJISS).

 An Interview with Former Ambassador Armacost

“During his four-year tenure as US ambassadorto Japan, Michael Armacost earned thenickname “Mr. Gaiatsu” (external pressure) forpushing Japan to make a visible contribution tothe Gulf War and for calling on Japan to open upand deregulate its markets during the StructuralImpediments Initiative talks. Armacost presentedhis latest views on Japan-US relations in May2012 in a speech delivered at the SasakawaPeace Foundation. During this visit to Japan, healso traveled to the US military bases in OkinawaPrefecture for the first time in 20 years.Nippon.com caught up with him to hear hisviews on the future course of the Japan-USpartnership, particularly with regard to security-related cooperation and economic relations,including the Trans-Pacific Strategic EconomicPartnership (TPP).”

“Forging Even Closer Japan-US Ties”

(Harano Joji - Nippon.com).

 There Is a New Face at the Defence Ministry

“Following this weekend's speech by US

Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta on the newDefense Strategy and the US role in the Asia-Pacific region, I find it appropriate to highlight thespecific section in which SecDef Panetta refersto the importance of the Japan-US Alliance andthe broader contribution of Japan to US strategicobjectives in the region.

It is a sizable account of one of Washington's strategic linchpins to Asia-Pacificsecurity, in words of the secretary. Incomparative terms, Tokyo has enjoyed a greatdeal more attention than another of America'salliances in the region, namely that with theRepublic of Korea.

Notwithstanding, China again took the

most considerably part of SecDef Panetta'sspeech, as he tried to downplay the view manyshare of the new defence strategy being aimed

at countering China's rise.”

“Looking at Japan's Place in SecDef Panetta'sSpeech”

(Tiago Mauricio - JFPO).

Japan Activists Push White House to TakeMeasures on "Comfort Women" Issue

“Right-wing Japanese lawmakers and activistshave successfully rounded up more than 25,000signatures for a petition on the White Housewebsite asking the Obama administration toforce the state of New Jersey to take down amonument dedicated to the memory of "comfortwomen," the thousands of women kidnappedand raped by Japanese soldiers during WorldWar II.

 The Bergen County executive dedicated a smallmonument in Palisades Park, New Jersey, in late2010 that included the following inscription:”

“Japanese comfort- women deniers force White

House response”(Josh Rogin - Foreign Policy).

MP Shigeru's Views on North Korea, CollectiveDefence and More

“As the United States rebalances its commitmenttoward the Asia-Pacific region, giving it toppriority in many areas of its foreign engagement,such as trade, diplomacy, security and so forth,the attention of policy-makers and academicshas quickly followed suit. Secretary of StateHillary Clinton has made clear the importance of the new "Asia pivot", most notably in a Foreign

Policy article entitled "America's Pacific Century",and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta hasbeen articulating the newest Defence Strategywhich ensur es Washing ton' s conti nuedcommitment to address the threats andchallenges in the region. To Japan, this will put a good many people ontheir toes. The lessons of the Taiwan Strait Crisisof 1995-96 may fall on deaf ears, as the UnitedStates may now refrain from providing thevaluable strategic assurances her allies in theregion were asking for, when Beijing decided toput Washington's commitment in the region tothe test. In the 1990s, when China was weakerand more timid a power, the United States stoodher ground and her allies remained confident of the security umbrella. Fifteen years later and in adifferent strategic environment, one cannot be sosure that the same will happen. Against thisbackdrop, the aforementioned elations canamount to nothing more than wet powder.”

“Is US Strategic Reassurance in East AsiaQuestioned?”

(Tiago Mauricio - JFPO).

Insights into the Impact of the F-35 Program inJapan-US Relations

“The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is the stealth

fighter of the future for the United States and

allies such as Japan, Australia, the United

Kingdom, and Canada. With unsurpassed

capabilities in stealth, survivability, agility, and

maneuverability, it represents the most dominant

platform the world has ever seen. Yet amidst

growing threats in the world and despite a strong

all iance for the program, the Obama

 Administration has decided to dramatically cut

the F-35 as part of its cost savings efforts. Not

only will this drive up per unit costs for the

program, it will deprive allies and U.S. forcesalike the proper capabilities to continue to

dominate the air. Please join us for this important

event that will shed light on the capabilities the

F-35 brings to the table, how the international

cooperation of its partner nations builds security,

diplomatic ties, and cost savings, and why cuts

to the program and why cuts to the program will 

hinder its development.”

“ The Future of Allied Participation for the F-35

Joint Strike Fighter Program”

(Steven Bucci - American Enterprise Institute).

Japan Could Change Course of Alliance Would

Ron Paul Have Won

“Morimoto, despite his defense smarts,

comes into office with severe handicaps that will

limit his ability to transform his own ideas into

action. First, he is a non-politician: he will facing

the bureaucracy naked, without even a political

secretary to back him up. Such support as he

will enjoy will come from the Prime Minister's

Residence (the Kantei) and in the person of the

man who appointed him. Second, the cost of 

acquiring the F-35 threatens to upset thebalance between the ASDF and the already

beset Ground Self Defense Forces and the proud

and dominant Maritime Self Defense Forces.

 After personnel costs and procurement costs,

Morimoto will have little to spend on actual

operations or any expansion of operations he

might press the government to consider.

 The appointment of Morimoto once again

raises the question of whether or not Noda is his

own defense minister. While he for once has less

experienced in defense matters than person he

has appointed as his defense minister, being only

the son of an SDF man rather than a former SDF 

man himself, Noda still believes himself an expert

in the nuts and bolts of defense policy. ”

“ The Morimoto Appointment”

(Michael Cucek - Shisaku).

How Was PM Noda's Defence Minister

 Appointment Welcomed by the Media?

“These concerns while not completely invalid,

seem rather superficial. On the one hand other

non-elected ministers of cabinet have in the pastbeen selected for various positions, with only the

prime minister being required to be an elected

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member of parliament. And since the PM (in

theory) has the final word on almost all issues,

including defense issues, the concern about a

non-elected minister being sufficiently

‘responsible’ for the limited amount of discretion

he has is somewhat overwrought. Likewise with

the concern for the lives of SDF officers. Is there

really any reason why an elected official would be

more concerned than a non-elected official over

making decisions that could cost lives? In fact,

knowing what we know about politicians and

their ‘sociopathic’ tendencies there could be

good reasons for thinking the opposite. Either

way it is worthwhile evaluating the person

themselves – being elected was certainly no

barrier to former defense ministers Ichikawa and

 Tanaka performing inadequately, which at a more

critical time could well have had much more

serious implications. Morimoto on the other hand

is a seasoned professional and most critically a

former SDF officer himself and has strong links

with the establishment, and is unlikely to take

any decision or give advice lightly.”

“ The New Japanese Defense Minister and the

Japanese Media Response”

(Corey Wallace - Japan Security Watch).

Japan Is Part of the Solution of the International

Order

“Japan’s policy choices can be seen as a

weathervane in international politics. After the

industrial revolution, Arnold Toynbee argued that

industrialism would triumph over nationalism. It

did not; instead, militarism came to the fore.

Japan charted a new aggressive course in her

attack on China in 1894, and Russia a decade

later. Even her military tactics foreshadowed

those used later in World War I. In the 1930s,

before Italy and Germany invaded other

countries, Japan had moved into Manchuria and

begun a war with China. In both cases other

powers followed in her wake. After her defeat in

the Pacific War, Japan led a trend in the opposite

direction. Long before the US and the USSR 

understood what was going on, Japan had 

already adopted the strategy of the trading state.

Eschewing militarism, she forged a new path of 

economic development, stimulated by foreigncommerce. Then, in the 1990s, Japan’s

industrial stagnation neatly prefigured the US and

European recessions playing out today. Japan’s

collapse after 1987 should have warned the

world of the economic dangers ahead.”

“Japan: a rising sun in the new West?”

(Mayumi Fukushima, Richard Rosecrance & 

 Yuzuru Tsuyama - East Asia Forum).

Will There Be a Breakthrough in Japan-Russia

Relations?

“Vladimir Putin returned to the Kremlin on May 7,

after a four-year hiatus, to embark on his third

term as president of the Russian Federation.

Putin had held the same position for eight years

(2000–08), and now he is guaranteed another

six. In Japan, the media have greeted Putin’s

comeback with hopeful speculation on the

chances for a breakthrough in the longstandingterritorial dispute between the two nations that

has stunted the development of their ties. But as

one official from Japan’s Ministry of Foreign

 Af fairs put it, “The obstacles to closer bilateral

relations are as formidable as ever.””

“Putin and the Northern Territories—A Reality

Check ”

(Suzuki Yoshikatsu- Nippon.com).

 A Statistical View of Japanese Normative Power

“Recently, Gallup published a set of polls about

the median approval for Japanese and Chinese

leadership in the region. This study may in the

first place show that both countries compete for

regional leadership. Secondly it may be a goodassessment to measure the effectiveness of 

Japan's Soft Power Strategy. Considering these

two charts, the first observes the perceptions of 

Japan and China's leadership in general, and the

second observes specifically the Southeast Asia

region. In this respect Gallup says: "In 2006,

Japan granted more than $11 billion in Official

Development Assistance around the world, of 

which about half remained in Asia. Gallup Polls in

the region suggest the substantial aid may be

paying off in terms of public opinion in the region,

but in only slightly larger dividends. In Southeast

 Asia, for example, where Japan directs much of 

its development assistance, a median of 58%

said they approve of the job performance of 

Japan's leadership, compared with a median of 

51% who said they approve of the job

performance of China's leadership."”

“Perceptions About Japan's Leadership in Asia”

(Rui Faro Saraiva - JFPO).

Remnants of the Cold War Are Still Influential in

 Asia

“Developments this week in Asia highlight in

stark contrast the two opposing sides that

continue to emerge in the region. Although

government officials take great pains in

downplaying the security implications underlying

their policies and dismiss talk of burgeoningalliances aimed at any one country in particular,

their actions belie their words. On the one side

there are the democracies of Asia and on the

other, the authoritarian governments of China

and Russia. First, Japan and India announced

what are the first joint exercises by their navies to

be held in Japanese waters scheduled for this

weekend.”

“East-West Divide on Full Display in East Asia”

(Richard Colapinto - Atlantic Sentinel).

Does Japan Have Dysfunctional Politics?

 Apparently So

“Japanese politics has fallen into a dysfunctional

state. The nation’s politicians are unable to come

up with responses to crucial political issues—or if 

they do come up with a response, it is always

too late. What accounts for this sorry state of 

affairs? Is the problem specific to this country, or

is it something that is common to all the

advanced democracies? Maybe people in Japan

are too harsh on themselves, and determined to

see domestic politics in the worst possible light?

 There is certainly no shortage of dysfunctional

governments in other countries. Belgium, for

example, went a year and a half without any

official government in place at all—and finally

managed to form a six-party coalition

government (centered on the Socialist Party) only

last December. This is beyond the imagination of 

most people in Japan. With its background in the

long history of tensions and antagonism between

the Dutch- and French-speaking populations in

Belgium, the crisis naturally had the effect of 

paralyzing the nation’s politics completely.”

“Overcoming Political Dysfunction in Japan”

(Masuzoe Yoichi - Nippon.com).

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“Osprey crash wasn't caused by tech defect: U.S.”

“Futenma, economy to decide Okinawa election”

“ Ambassador to China slams Ishihara's Senkakus plan”

“GSDF sergeant suspected of auctioning military supplies

online”

“U.S. gives Osprey crash report”

“Foreign Ministry official skips China amid tit-for-tat fears”

“Disputed Islands at Top of Agenda For Tokyo Assembly

Session”

“Panetta: U.S. losing patience with Pakistan”

“Japan should think again on 'comfort women'”

“Russia envoy offers isle suggestions”

“LDP's dangerous proposals for amending antiwar article”

“Russia turns east to embrace looming China”

“Morimoto draws mixed reactions”

“New defense minister seen as giving pro-Washington advice”

“Morimoto becomes Japan's 1st nonparliamentarian defense

chief ”

“N. Korea denounces Japan's move to deploy destroyers near

S. Korea”

“Japan, India to conduct 1st joint exercises of defense forces”

“U.K. signs cyberdefense accord”

“New defense chief calls current Futenma relocation plan

"best" option”

“Seoul OK with Aegis deployment”

“S. Korea won't object to Japan's Aegis destroyers in nearby

waters: report”

“Nonpolitician status OK: new defense chief ”

“Chinese seek compensation, apology in China court over

Japan bomb raids”

“Okinawa less than thrilled with new defense minister”

“Chinese NGO issues reports on US, Japan military power”

“Japan, ROK, U.S. vow to press N. Korea”

“Professor gets defense post / Noda removes censured

ministers in Cabinet reshuffle”

“Morimoto has great experience working in SDF, Foreign

Ministry”

“LDP praises Cabinet reshuffle”

“Panetta: Access to Pacific harbors key to U.S. strategy”“Noda gets rid of censured Cabinet ministers”

“New defense minister: Henoko best choice for Futenma

relocation”

“Uproar after first appointment of private citizen as defense

minister”

“Experts scoff at allegations of spying by diplomat Li”

“Noda replaces censured ministers”

“ Actor hopes popularity can ease mutual distrust with

China”

“Japan, India to hold joint naval exercises”

7/31/2019 East Asian Security and Defence Digest 27

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“JFPO in the Media: Revista de Marinha” by Tiago

Maurício

“Perceptions about Japan's Leadership in Asia”

by Rui Faro Saraiva

“Japan's New Defence Minister SatoshiMorimoto” by Tiago Maurício

“Looking at Japan's Place in SecDef Panetta's

Speech” by Tiago Maurício

“Is US's Strategic Reassurance in Asia

Questioned?” by Tiago Maurício

EAST ASIAN SECURITY AND DEFENCE DIGESTEditor: TIAGO MAURICIO

Editor’s Mailbox: mauricio.tiago.47x(at)st.kyoto-u.ac.jp

Kyoto, Japan

East Asia Security and Defence Digest covers expert analysis

and news highlights on East Asian Security and Defence Affairs.

 The opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and donot necessarily reflect the views of JFPO.

J APAN FOREIGN POLICY OBSERVATORY (JFPO)

HTTP:// WWW.JAPANFPO.ORG /