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Table of Contents
Introduction
Impacts on the different sectors
Effects of adaptation and mitigation policies by sector
Integrated Analysis Results
Conclusions and implications
Ⅰ
Ⅲ
Ⅳ
Ⅴ
Ⅵ
Scenarios Ⅱ
Ⅰ. Introduction
• A rise in average temperature of 1.8℃ (global temp. rise: 0.8℃) for past 100
years and increase in precipitation intensity
- Frequent occurrence of extreme weather(Heat wave, heavy rain, heavy snow)
- Lesser # of Typhoon but the impact became exacerbated
- Rate of sea-level rise in Jeju island is approximately 3 times the global rate
1. Climate Change in Korea
3
Ⅰ. Introduction
Temperature 18℃ ↑ for past 100 years(1912-2010): more than double compare to the globally risen
temp * Faster rate of rise in temperature for last 30 years(1982-2010)
Precipitation 19% ↑ for past 100 years(1912-2010)
Sea-level rise Nationwide: about 8cm ↑ (akin to global average), Jeju Island: 22cm ↑
for 43 years(1964-2006)
Extreme
Weather
Heat wave/tropical nights ↑, # of severe rain storm ↑ (more than doubled in 2011) # of tropical nights: (1920’s) 2.6 nights → (2000’s) 9.8 nights
Annual average cost of damage by extreme weather(heavy rain ,heavy snow) tripled
compared to 90s
Typhoon
Damage caused by typhoon ↑ (with #of typhoon ↓) Max. amount of precipitation: typhoon RUSA (870.5mm on 31 Aug. 2002, Gangneung region)
Max. rate of strong wind: typhoon MAEMI(60m/s on 12 Sept. 2003, Jeju Island)
Max. amount of damage on properties: typhoon RUSA (about 5.1 trillion won in 2002)
Ⅰ. Introduction
• Conducting a comprehensive assessment on physical impacts, economic costs
and GHG mitigation costs of climate change on the main sectors
⇒ Presenting national level counter strategies based on the integrated
economic analysis of climate change impacts
2. Objectives of the study
• Spatial Range : South Korea
• Time Range : 2008~ 2100
• Study Area
- Climate change and social economic scenarios of Korea
- Climate change vulnerabilities and economic analysis of 5 Main sectors
(Water recourse, Forestry & Ecosystem, Food resource, Human health, Costal Area)
- Cost and ripple effect of GHG mitigation
- Integrated cost-benefit analysis of climate change policy
4
Ⅰ. Introduction
Sectors Impacts of climate change
Resea
rch
scope
note Sectors Impacts of climate change Researc
h scope note
Wate
r
Reso
urc
e
- Changes in precipitation and runoff O
※M
ajo
r W
ate
rsh
ed
(H
an
riv
er,
Ge
um
R
ive
r,
Yo
un
gsa
n R
iver, N
akd
on
g R
ive
r) as th
e b
ase p
oin
t
of th
e a
na
lysis
Fo
od
res
ou
rce
- Changes in crop yields O
※A
na
lysis
ch
an
ge
s in
the
pro
du
ctio
n o
f rice
an
d b
are
ly
- Changes in possible capacity of water resource O - Changes in agricultural profit due to changes in crop yield O
- Loss of life due to lack of water - Degradation of crop quality
- Damage by flood and drought - Changes in pest and weed
- Cost of maintenance and repairs related changing water supply - Changes in crop growing regions
- Cost of alternatives for changing water supply - Changes in food crop yields including forest trees
- Changes in surface water and runoff water - Changes in industrial crops and bio-fuel crops
-Changes in groundwater - Changes in capture fisheries and aquaculture
- Water quality deterioration - Changes in livestock production
- Damage of Erosion and sediment transport - Changes in livestock mortality
Fo
res
t & E
co
sys
tem
- Changes and vulnerability of forest distribution O
※ fo
rest fire
an
d la
nd
slid
es w
ere
an
aly
zed
for th
e c
ase
of fo
rest d
isa
ste
r
- Increased costs of livestock maintenance (rel. to extreme heat)
- Changes and vulnerability of forest function O - Reduced costs of facilities crop maintenance (less heating days)
- Changes and vulnerability of possible forest disaster O - Changes in demand for secondary agricultural water
- Changes in the distribution of biomes - Reduced productivity of cow due to heat stress
- Changes in regional biodiversity
Hu
ma
n H
ea
lth
- Excessive death due to abnormally high temperature in summer O
- Migration of forest vegetation - Damage caused by abnormally high temperature (increasing number of
hospitalization days, etc.)
- The extinction of alpine and sub-alpine vegetation - Damage caused by cold
- Changes in capacity of carbon dioxide absorption - Increased in infectious diseases due to flooding
- Changes in rehabilitation and leaf developing period (became faster in
period) - Death caused by drought, malnutrition, respiratory diseases
- Changes in biogeochemical cycles and biotic feedback - Rise in temperature due to increase in food poisoning
- Damages in desert (decreased productivity of desert animals, loss in
biodiversity and increased wildfire caused by droughts)
- Rise in number of death, disease and injury due to sudden meteorological
phenomena
- Reduced carbon sequestration in grasslands and savannas - Changes in the range of infectious agents
- Changes in the tundra and the Arctic and Antarctic ecosystem - Increased water-borne epidemics
- Changes in mountainous regions (abbreviated meting rate) - Excess mortality, cardiac and respiratory disease due to changes in air quality
Co
as
tal A
rea
- Flood damage cause by rising sea levels O - Increase in infectious diseases due to increased medium( rodents)
- Erosion damage caused by rising sea levels O - Damage caused by disease (salmonella, gastroenteritis, etc.)
- Changes in water quality and ecosystem due to increasing sea temperature
and co2
Ind
us
try,
Se
ttlem
en
t,
So
cie
ty
- Damage of industrial facilities located in sensitive areas
(Not included in the
study)
- Strom and Tsunami - Damages of the industries using sensitive materials
- Hurricane - Impacts on service sector (trade, retail, commercial service, ,etc.)
- Cyclone - Impact on public services and infrastructure
3. Climate Change Impact and Project Scope
5
Ⅰ. Introduction
4. Current Research on the Economic Analysis of Climate Change I
6
Ⅰ. Introduction
Sector Stern (2007) IPCC (2007)
EEA
(2007)
Garnaut
(2008)
NRDC
(2008)
ADB
(2009) WHO (2009) KEI
Global Global EU Australia U.S.A S.E Asia Global S.Korea
Water Resource V V V V V V V
Water
Resource
Water resource cost V V
Population affected by ch. in water resource V
Damage due to ch. in precipitation and runoff V(2yr)
Water
shortage
& supply
Loss of HH due to water shortage V
Damage on number of population due to water shortage V V
Alternative operating cost for water supply
maintenance/repairs V
Use of electricity by water suppliers V
Others Total cost due to floods V
Possible rate of fish haul V V
Food resource V V V V V V
General
Products
(Rate of
Supply)
Grains V
Agricultural irrigation V
Crops V V
Particular
Products
(Rate of
Supply
Rice V V(1,2yr)
Barley V(1,2yr)
Beans V
Corn V
Arid regions V
Dry land grain V
Livestock V
Human Health V V V V V
Disease
Damages caused by Salmonella V
Damage caused by gastroenteritis V
Damage caused by Malaria/break borne fever V V V V
Heat
damage
# of hospitalization V
Expenditure on health V
# of death and economic damage cost V V V(1,2yr)
7
Ⅰ. Introduction
Sectors
Stern
(2007)
IPCC
(2007)
EEA
(2007)
Garnaut
(2008)
NRDC
(2008)
ADB
(2009)
WHO
(2009) KEI
Global Global EU Australia U.S.A S.E Asia Global S.Korea
Forestry/Ecosystem V V V V V
Changes in the distribution of forest V V(1st,2nd)
Changes in forest function V(2nd)
Changes in the possibility of forest disaster (eg. Forest fire) V V(2nd)
The distribution of biomes V V
Regional biodiversity V
Costal Area V V V V V
General damages due to sea level rise V 1st: Flood
2nd:Erosion Damage due to loss of coast (eg. Life, property) V V
Other economic impacts
Infrastructure V
Industry, settlement and society V
Energy V V V V
Extreme climate events V V V V
Home, Real estate V
Labor V
Integrated analysis V V V V V V
5. Current Research on the Economic Analysis of Climate Change II
경제적 영향
Integrated Analysis PAGE09 Model
Non-Economic Impact
6. Methodologies
Water Agri-
culture Costal
Area
Indus-
try
Infrastr-
ucture
Disaster
Human
Health
Eco
system
Quality
of Life
Leisure Time Social Stability
Ⅰ. Introduction
8
…
…
GHG Mitigation Cost
Economic Impact Scenarios
- Climate
-Energy consumption
-GHG emission
-Economic growth
(Domestic)
-Industrial structure
-Population size and
structure (Domestic)
-Land use
Bottom-up
Top-down
Ⅱ. Scenario
• Primary Index until 2100(inaction)
- Temp : 4℃↑ around in 2100
- GHG emission : Persistently increase until
2030-2050. Decreases after the period
- Energy : Persistently increase in rate of usage
until 2030-2050. Decreases after the
period(Changes in supply and demand of
energy and domestic industrial structure)
- GDP : Increase continuously until 2100(tend to
have decreased growth rate)
- Population : Decrease continuously
⇒ Reflecting above scenarios to impact
assessment on sectors
9
Ⅱ. Scenario
63,443
67,559
51,788
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
2020 2050 2100
GHG Emission*만CO2t
년도Year*Rate of Emission Fossil Fuel
1,372
2,402
3,268
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2020 2050 2100
GDPTrillion Won
Year
4,932
4,234 4,053
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
2020 2050 2100
Polulationmillion
Year
55
50
45
40
35
30
million CO2t
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
49.32
• Physical impacts : Rainfall and runoff in main drainage areas
- (Rainfall) Annual overall average is expected to increase until (compared to 2008)
- (Runoff) Seasonal distribution is expected to vary as summer season runoff is also expected
to decrease
1. Water Resources
• Economical Impact : Variation of usable water resource
Damage cost
( billion won)
Corresponding year
2020 2050 2100
Damage cost in each yr 55.4 357.4 107.6
Ⅲ. Impacts on the different sectors
10
Ⅲ. Impacts on the different sectors
※ the impact of 4 River project is not taken into account
Annual Ave. Rainfall : mm
Basic Yr
Han River Nakdong River Geum River Yeongsan River
Ave. Runoff : mm Han river Drainage area Nakdong river Drainage area
Gum river Drainage area Yeongsan river Drainage area
2. Forestry & Ecosystem
• Physical Impact : Distribution, Function, Disaster (Forest fire, Landslide)
- Distribution : Compared to the past(1972-2000), far into the future(2070-2100) the
subalpine zone and cool temp. zone will decrease to 25%, the warm temp. zone and
subtropical forestry will increase to 65%
- Function : Primary production, Potential soil carbon stock will decrease
- Disaster : (Forest fire) the vulnerabilities of major metropolitan areas were seen to be high
(Landslide) the vulnerable areas are distributed in the northern regions and southern coastal areas. * northern regions : relatively higher in vulnerabilities
11
Ⅲ. Impacts on the different sectors
• Economic Impact:
- Distribution: Warm and tropical temp vegetation area- Increasing with rising temperature,
Cold and cool temp vegetation area- Decreasing with rising temperature
∙ Cost: Near future(181.5493 trillion won), Distant future(522.6297 trillion won)
- Function: forest tree growth was seen to be decreasing (unit price : 49,418 won/m3)
∙ Cost : Near future(34.5 billion won ), Distant future(11.8 billion won)
- Disaster : (forest fire) Differences b/t cost of near future and distant future are not too large- 1.448 billion won/yr (damage cost ), 87.965 billion won (value of loss)
(Land slide) Difference in costs of past and distant future : 20.066 billion won/y( recovery cost)
Damage cost
(billion won)
Corresponding year
2020 2050 2100
Damage cost in each yr 88.7 165.3 293.7
Changes in area of ecology of eating, wood production, Forest disaster (Forest fire)
3. Food Resource
• Physical Impact : Potential production of rice and barely - (Rice) decrease in production continues until 2100 ( production will increase with adaptation
measure) - (Barely) increase in production continues until 2100 ( production will even more increase with adaptation measure)
12
Ⅲ. Impacts on the different sectors
• Economic Impact:
(Without Adaptation efforts)
- continuous increase of annual loss by climate change impact
∙ 2010-2040: moderate increase in loss
∙ 2040-2070: sharp increase in loss
∙ 2070-2100: slow down in the rate of increase in loss
(With Adaptation efforts)
- increase of annual profit in agricultural sector due to climate change impact (vs. no climate
change impact)
∙ increases in moderate rate during the period
- Approximately 613.4 billion won loss is predicted
in 2100 (6.4% of total profit in agriculture sector in
2100)
- With the adaptation measure, approximately 4.6%
increase will take in place (Adaptation effect App. 11%)
Total benefit of Agriculture sector: %
w Adaptation Policy w/o Adaptation Policy
4. Human Health
• Physical Impact
- The outlook of nationwide excess death will be about 8,715 in 2100 (with adaptation measure, number
of excess death will decrease in 1,251: # of death 8,715 → 7,464)
• Economical Impact
- With excess number of death, the cost of approximately 1.4377 trillion won will occur in
2100 (with implementation of heat wave alert measure, cost will have decrease about 206.4 billion
won : 1.4377 trillion won → 1.2313 trillion won)
13
※ Adaptation cost : Developing system for heat wave provision in 2010~2013 will cost the total of 0.058 billion won, 0.58 billion won will cost every year after 2014 (By applying discount rate in 2020, 2050, 2100, each year will cost about 0.42 billion, 0.24 billion and 0.180 billion respectively)
※ # of excess death in 2020, 2050, 2100 will be the average death rate of 2011-2020, 2041-2050, 2091-2100 respectively
Ⅲ. Impacts on the different sectors
2020 2050 2100
피 해 비용 (억원 )
0
6000
12000
18000
24000
30000초 과사망자 수 (명)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
피 해 비용 (적 응 대책 미 추 진 시 )
피 해 비용 (적 응 대책 추 진 시 )
초 과사망자 수 (적 응 대책 미 추 진 시 )
초 과사망자 수 (적 응 대책 추 진 시 )
Damage Cost : 100million won Excess # of death: people
Damage cost(w/o Adaptation measure) Damage cost(w Adaptation measure) Excess # of death(w/o Adaptation measure) Excess # of death(w Adaptation measure)
5. Coastal Area • Physical Impact : Sea level rise (35cm) in 2100
- Flood : the area of flooded wet surface will be about 2,368km2, dry area will be about 240km2 and about
150 thousand people will be flooded
- Erosion : Ave. rate of erosion :40.5%(Ave. in the West cost 49.8%, the South cost 48.5%, the East cost
27.2%)
Damage cost
(billion won)
Corresponding year
2020 2050 2100
Flood 2,531.4 3,982.8 6,305.3
Erosion 730.2 1,318.6 1,223.4
Total damage cost 3,261.6 5.01.4 7,528.7
14
• Economical Impact - Flood and erosion by app. 35cm sea level rise will cause about 7.5287 trillion won of damage cost
※ Erosion: the damage cost is calculated by the sampling of the visitors of the major beaches (gyeongpodae, daecheon, haewoondae) in
East, West, South cost into 111 beaches in the country
Ⅲ. Impacts on the different sectors
※ 111 Sabin coast areas in Korea were analyzed
온 도상승 (해 수 면상승 )
1℃(7.3cm) 2℃(17.6cm) 3℃(25.7cm) 4℃(34.8cm)
평 균 침 식 률 (%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
동 해 평 균
남해 평 균
서해 평 균
전 체 평 균
습 지 0.2 m 0.4 m 0.6 m 0.8 m 1 m
침 수 면적 (km2)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500침 수 인구 (만명 )
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
건조 지 역 침 수 면적
침 수 인구
습 지 침 수 면적
해 수 면 상승
Flooded area: km2 Flooded People: 10 Thousand
Area of Flooded Arid region Flooded People Area of Flooded Wet land
Ave. of East sea Ave. of South sea Ave. of West sea Total Ave.
Ave. rate of Flood %
Sea – level rise
Wet Lands
Temp. Increase(Sea – level rise)
15
Sectors 2020 2050 2100
Scenario
GDP 1,079 trillion won* 2,663 trillion won 3,599 trillion won
Population 49.32 million people 42.34 million people 40.53 million people
Use of energy 634.43 million TOE* 664.66 million TOE 532.27 million TOE
GHG emission 634.43 million CO2 t 675.59 million CO2t 517.88 million CO2t
Ave. Temperature 12.67℃(approx 1℃↑ ) 13.84℃(approx 2℃↑) 15.71℃(approx 4℃↑)
Precipitation
(rate of increase) 1,256.91mm(approx 4%) 1,399.87mm(approx 16%) 1,465.00mm(approx 21%)
Water
resource
Phys.
Impact
Precipitation** •Hanr: 4% ↑ •Nakdong: 11% ↑
•Keum: 7% ↑ •Yeongsan: 15% ↑
•Han: 7% ↑ • Nakdong : 6% ↑
• Keum : 5% ↑ • Yeongsan : 10% ↑
•Han: 12% ↑ • Nakdong : 13% ↑
•Keum: 10% ↑ • Yeongsan : 1.5times ↑
Run-off** •Han: 5% ↑ • Nakdong : 10% ↑
•Keum: 3% ↓ •Yeongsan : 3% ↓
•Han: 5% ↑ • Nakdong : 2% ↓
•Keum: 13% ↓ • Yeongsan : 11% ↓
•Han: 14% ↑ • Nakdong : 11% ↑
•Keum: 4% ↓ • Yeongsan : 18% ↑
Econ. Impact 55.4 billion won 357.4 billion won 107.6 billion won
Forestry &
Ecosystem
Phys.
Impact
Distribution **
•Potential subalpine and cool temp mixed stand
forest: approx. 24% ↓
•Potential warm temp mixed stand forest and
subtropical evergreen forest: approx. 21times
↑
•Potential subalpine and cool temp mixed stand
forest: approx. 44% ↓
• Potential warm temp mixed stand forest and
subtropical evergreen forest: approx. 28
times↑
•Potential subalpine and cool temp mixed stand
forest: approx. 93% ↓
•Potential warm temp mixed stand forest and
subtropical evergreen forest:
approx. 339 times ↑
Function** •Potential soil carbon stocks: 7% ↓ • Potential soil carbon stocks : 7% ↓ • Potential soil carbon stocks : 19% ↓
Econ. Impact 88.7 billion won 165.3 billion won 293.7 billion won
Food
resource
Physical Impact Potential
Yield**
•Rice: -7%
•Barely: 13%
•Rice: -12%
•Barely: 22%
•Rice: -15%
•Barely: 20%
Econ. Impact 82.4 billion won 296.4 billion won 613.5 billion won
Human
Health
Phys.
Impact
Excess death due to
extremely high temp.
in summer
264ppl 3,181ppl 8,715ppl
Econ. Impact 103.9 billion won 714.8 billion won 1.4377 trillion won
Sea-level Rise 7.3cm 17.6cm 34.8cm
Coastal
Area
Physic.
Impact
Flood •Area: approx. 65km2***
•Population: approx. 40,000 ppl***
•Area: approx. 65km2
•Population: approx. 40,000ppl
•Area: approx. 240km2
•Population: approx. 150.000 ppl
Erosion Ave. rate of erosion approx. 10% Ave. rate of erosion approx. 23% Ave. rate of erosion approx. 41%
Econ.
Impact
Flood 2. 5314 trillion won 3.9828 trillion won 6.3053 trillion won
Erosion 730.2 billion won 1.3186 trillion won 1.2234 trillion won
Total 3.2617 trillion won 5.3014 trillion won 7.5287 trillion won
* Base yr : 2010/ ** Compared % to base yr (‘71~‘00) /*** condition of 2℃↑
6. Annual impacts of climate change Ⅲ. Impacts on the different sectors
Damage costs of climate change
in each year 2020 2050 2100
Water
resource Major basin
55.4 (0.005)
357.4 (0.03)
107.6 (0.01)
Forestry
& Ecosystem
Forestry 88.7
(0.008)
1,65.3 (0.014)
293.7 (0.025)
Food Loss in
agriculture profit 82.4 (0.01)
2,96.4 (0.03)
613.5 (0.05)
Human
health Excess death
103.9 (0.009)
714.8 (0.06)
1,437.7 (0.12)
Coastal
area
Flood: sea level
rise (flood) 2,531.5
(0.22)
3,982.8 (0.34)
6,305.3 (0.54)
Erosion:
sea level rise
(beaches)
730.2 (0.06)
1,318.6 (0.11)
1,223.4 (0.11)
Total damage cost
Flood + Erosion 3,619.5
(0.31)
6,873.6 (0.59)
1,017.6 (0.86)
unit: billion won (%GDP)
7. Damage costs in the sectors
- Damage impact of climate change in the sectors (GDP%)
: Costal area(0.65%) > Human health(0.12%) > Food(0.05%) > forestry & Ecosystem(0.03%) >
Water resource(0.01%)
16
Ⅲ. Impacts on the different sectors
Human Health Food Coast(Flood) Coast(Erosion) Water resource Forest & Ecosystem
F &E Water Erosion Flood Food Health
Ⅳ. Effects of adaptation and mitigation policies
※ Annual effects of adaptation policies in Human health and food resources in 2020, 2050, 2100
- Adaptation policy decreases the damage cost cause by climate change
- about 14% decrease in human health sector (in 2100), Not only the decrease but also the increase in profit is observed in food resource sector
▣ Human health and Food
▣ Water resource, Forestry & Ecosystem, Costal area
- Decrease in the costs (further quantitative analysis is needed)
1. Adaptation
17
Ⅳ. Effect of adaptation and mitigation policies in the sectors
Human Health Food
Total Damage Cost: billion won
W/O Adaptation Measure : Damage cost by Heat-wave
Cost of implementing Heat-wave preparation: during 2010-13(Total-5.8 billion), After 2013(Annual cost-0.58 billion)
W Adaptation Measure : Damage cost + Cost of the measure
Total Benefit of Agricultural Sector: %
W/O Adaptation Measure
W Adaptation Measure Adaptation Cost
is not Included
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1,438
1,232
612
715
104
89.4
2. Mitigation
• Cost of GHG reduction of 30% in 2011-2020
(compared to the case of inaction) : 0.28-1.17% of GDP
- If the global society, to fulfill the Copenhagen agreement, implement International Emission
Trading and reduction of labor tax promoted by returns from the auction of emission trading :
→ will result alleviation in damage about 75% and 45% of GDP respectively
• Cost of mitigation will be increased gradually by reinforcement in mitigation targets
Ⅳ. Effect of adaptation and mitigation policies in the sectors
18
Decrease in GDP by GHG Mitigation: % (Unit: decrease in GDP(%))
Decrease in GHG Emission(%)
1. Integrated Analysis model: PAGE
Policy Analysis of Greenhouse Effect Model
• Developed to establish the decision
making in climate change strategies
of Commissions of European
Communities, Directorate General
Environment
• Applied by various researches
including Stern(2007),
NRDC(2008), ADB(2009)
• Probabilistic sampling of the input
parameters in order to build up an
approximate probability distribution
for each model output
• Estimate non-linear damage caused
by climate change
19
Ⅴ. Integrated Analysis Results
Ⅴ. Integrated Analysis Results
2. GHG Emission Scenario
- Analyze GHG emission scenarios on 3 different BAU in order to outlook future society conditions under various social, economical, technological assumptions including GDP and effect of alternative fuels (Graph A)
- To be in a part of the global effort to 2°C stabilization, analyze mitigation cost by assuming 2 different scenarios (Both scenarios assume 30% reduction compared to BAU in 2020)
- If aggressive efforts to reduce GHG emission is taken by all the countries, the reduction in cost of damage in Korea would be;
-S1 Scenario: Benefit >Cost under LBAU scenario
-S2 Scenario: Benefit > Cost under all the BAU scenario (TableA)
20
<Table A> Mitigation cost of GHG Emission
and Damage cost by climate change by
scenarios (Unit: Trillion Won)
Classification LBAU BAU HBAU
Damage cost 2,642
(2,326)
2,807
(2,521)
3,569
(3,146)
2℃ Stabilization scenario
Damage Cost
584
(622)
587
(632)
766
(792)
Differences in Damage Cost
(Benefit of GHG mitigation by the
globe)
2,058
(1,703)
2,220
(1,889)
2,803
(2,354)
, ( ) standard deviation
Ⅴ. Integrated Analysis Results
<Graph A> GHG Emission by Scenarios
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2075 2100
0
200
400
600
800
BAU
LBAU
HBAU
S1
S2
십 억 탄소 톤Billion CO2t
3. Damage Cost by Climate Change
<Graph A : Annual Damage cost (inaction vs. 2℃ stabilization)>
(price in 2008, GDP%)
<Graph B : Cumulative Damage cost (inaction vs. 2℃ stabilization)>
(price in 2008, Unit : 1000 trillion won)
<Graph A>
- In the condition under Inaction, Damage cost increase gradually from 2009 to 2050
- Damage cost increases dramatically after 2050
- Distinct reduction in damage cost if worldwide effort for 2℃ stabilization takes place
<Graph B>
- In the condition under inaction, high probability of having high damage cost is observed
- Low probability of high damage cost is observed under 2℃ stabilization
21
Ⅴ. Integrated Analysis Results
20102020
20302040
20502075
2100
조 원
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
No action
2oC
(0.34%)
(0.12%)
(0.60%)
(0.16%)
(0.59%)
(GDP comparison: 2.85%)
Trillion won
4. Mitigation cost and benefit
- To join in an effort to 2°C stabilization, Korea’s GHG emission mitigation presumed , in compare to inaction
scenarios, as : 2020( 30%), 2050( 50%), 2100( 99%) (Graph A)
- By global efforts to reduce GHG emission, climate change damage reduction effects (reduction benefit)
will increase gradually toward distant future and if uncertainties are considered, the benefit exceeds the cost
(Graph B)
- 1 tone of CO2 reduction will create reduction of 5Kg of NOX 57kg, PM10 emission
* In 2020, reduction of 256Mt of CO2 will create reduced emission of NOX (14.6 Mt), PM10(1.2Mt)
(= 96,397 thousand toe of energy conservation and 235trillion won of gasoline conservation)
Ⅴ. Integrated Analysis Results
<Graph A : CO2 mitigation in Inaction vs. 2°C
stabilization scenarios > <Graph B : Differences between CO2 mitigation cost for 2℃
stabilization and Damage cost of inaction (reduction
benefit) in Korea>
22
* Each surface ; 20%~80% reliability surface
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2075 2100
조 원
0
20
40
60
80
S2 감축 비용
감축 편 익
감축 비용 감축 편익
Trillion won
Cost of Mitigation Cost-Benefit of Mitigation
Unit: Mt
5. Costs and benefits of Adaptation Policy
- Adaptation Policy under inaction Scenarios : the cumulative damage cost reduction of more than
800 trillion won (Graph A)
* Cost of adaptation policy estimates approximately 300 trillion won
- Earlier the execution of adaptation policy is greater in damage cost reduction
- Regardless of period of adaptation policy, benefit exceeds cost in all times (Graph B)
Ⅴ. Integrated Analysis Results
<Graph A : Damage cost and cumulative
adaptation cost in 2100 by the scenarios>
23
20102020
20302040
20502075
2100
조 원
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
적 응 편 익
적 응 비용
2.5
4.8
11.0
2.63.5
0.8
<Graph B : Benefit and cost of adaptation
measure by the year>
Trillion won Trillion won
No Adaptation
A1 (2010) Adaptation
A2 (2013) Adaptation
A3 (2050) Adaptation
Damage cost Adaptation cost
Cost/Benefit of Adaptation measure Cost of Adaptation measure
Ⅵ. Conclusions and Implications
The cumulative damage cost for Korea under the condition of inaction by the
globe : approx. 2800 trillion won (226 trillion won ~27791 trillion won) in 2100
Damage cost will be reduced globally(specially lowering the chance of having high
damage cost)if the globally aggressive GHG emission mitigation takes in place for
2°C stabilization
Adaptation policy will have immediate result and in all times, benefit excess the
costs
- Growing impact of reduction in damage cost will be increased as to furtherer future
Continuous research is needed since there are uncertainties related to
economic analysis of climate change
24
Ⅵ. Conclusions and implications
Conclusions
▣ Economic Impacts of 'In action Scenario' & '2°C Stabilization Scenario'
① Inaction Scenario
- More than 4°C increase of temperature in 2100
- Annual economic damage in 2100 will be 3% of GDP
- the Cumulative damage cost will be 2,800 trillion won in 2100
② Implementing the Adaptation measure under Inaction Scenario in Korea
(Cumulative cost : about 300 trillion won)
- the Cumulative damage cost will be decreased by 800 trillion won in 2100 (2,800 trillion
won →2,000 trillion won)
- Investing in adaptation measure : 500 trillion won amount of pure benefit occur ※ Base
yr for the cost estimation : Currency based on yr 2008
③ 2℃ Stabilization Scenario
- the cumulative damage cost for 2100 will be reduced to 580 trillion won under aggressive
efforts to mitigate GHG emission for 2℃ stabilization
25
Ⅵ. Conclusions and implications
Limitations
Impact assessment on sectors in this study includes limited impacts of climate
change
-Sectors that are not included in this study : Natural disaster, industries,
infrastructure
- Damage by various causes such as disease, insect are not included in the
impact assessment
The benefit and cost of adaptation was analyzed in micro scope which needs
further bottom-up research with adaptation cases
If the co-benefits including reduced fuel economy and impact of air pollutant
reduction were considered, the impact of mitigation would be higher
Analyzing various scenarios are needed since condition of Korea is greatly
influenced by degree of global GHG emission reduction
26
Ⅵ. Conclusions and implications
ANNEX. Climate Change Policy in Korea
• ‘Framework Act on Low Carbon Green Growth’ enacted (Mar. 2010)
: an action-oriented paradigm which promotes a mutually supportive relationship between
growth and the environment by holistically embracing the framework of sustainable growth
“Green growth refers to sustainable growth that mitigates greenhouse gas emissions and prevents
environmental degradation. It is also a new national development paradigm that creates new growth engines
and jobs through green technology and clean energy” (President Lee Myung-bak,2008)
1. Low Carbon and Green Growth Policy in Korea
27
ANNEX
<Concept of Korea’s Green Growth> <Five-Year Plan for Green Growth>
Source : Presidential Committee on Green Growth
National mid-term GHG reduction target Set mitigation goal at a 30% reduction in greenhouse gases relative to BAU by 2020: the
highest level advised by IPCC for the non-Annex 1 countries
Korea’s aggressive target reflects its will to drive green growth policy, and to participate in the
global efforts to mitigate climate change.
2. Mitigation Policy in Korea
28
2020 2005
594
741
570
Reducing
30%
BAU
Target
(unit: MTCO2)
Target Management Scheme for GHG
Emission and energy consumption Introduced in 2010, designed to set GHG
emission and energy consumption reduction
targets for significant emitters
: About 70% of roughly 600 major GHG emitters have
been brought into the scheme, entail a systematic
management of a national GHG information system
Emission Trading Scheme Preparing to introduce the Emission Trading Scheme in 2015 : Designed to allow GHG emitters
to trade emission allowances to lower the overall national cost of emission reduction Source : Presidential Committee on Green Growth
ANNEX
ANNEX. Climate Change Policy in Korea
• National Strategic Plan for Climate Change Adaptation(2011-2015)
: Comprehensive framework for climate change adaptation in Korea
- The 1st legal plan by the Basic Act on Low Carbon, Green Growth( ’10.4)
- Participation of 13 ministries and 70 experts in related fields
- 87 projects in 10 adaptation sectors
- The action plan and guideline for the local government’s on Climate Change Adaptation
3. Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Korea
29
Health Disaster Adaptation
Industry
Agriculture Marine
Resources Water
Monitoring
Projection Ecosystem Forest
ANNEX
ANNEX. Climate Change Policy in Korea