Eduardo Mario Mendiondo*

National Center for Monitoring and Alerts of Natural Disasters Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation - CEMADEN, MCTI, Brazil

* also Professor at University of Sao Paulo, EESC/USP

WORKSHOP ZCAS / MONCAO Governance and Policy for

Disaster Risk Reduction and Adaptation to Extremes of Climate Variability

Natural Disasters in Brazil: over 95% of disasters are climate related

Forest fires, Floods, Drought, Mass movements

Wildfires, Floods, Erosions

Wildfires, Flash Floods, Floods, Droughts, Landslides,

Debris Flows

Droughts, Floods, Flash

Floods

Flash Floods, Wind Storms, Hails,

Landslides

Natural Disasters and Population

Source: IBGE, 2010

*Source: Brazilian Atlas of Natural Disasters 1991-2012

Governance & Policies for: • Disaster Risk Reduction and Adaptation* • Urban Water Management • Climate Change, Agriculture and Water • Planning and Scenarios • Water State-of-the-Art in São Paulo State • Urban Planning • International Research Cooperation

Atlas Brasil, 2010

South American Community Water Availability 2000-2100

2100

2100

2100

2100

Year

2000

2050 2025

Strategic Scenarios 2000-2100 of community freshwater availability VS Gross Net Product per Capita for South America. Source: adapted from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005)

Cenário 2:

We are here!

Sistemas analisados do PISF/ANA

Future Water Demand at Selected River Basins at NorthEast Brazil: Source: PISF/ANA (Braz. Water Authority) & NLTA/World Bank

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

m3/s

Ano

Jaguaribe (+)

Jaguaribe (-)

Piranhas-Açu (+)

Piranhas-Açu (-)

NLTA/World Bank*

PISF/ANA

1st Motivation Question for GOVERNANCE AND POLICY: HOW can we identify and split Operation & Maintenance’s Costs of Water Allocation under Strategic Adaptation Regional Planning for Disaster Risk Reductions and under change (i.e. climate, habits, population, land use, etc)?

* Fonte: E. M. Mendiondo & Valdés (2002) Sustainable Development Strategies for Water Systems, In: II Int. Conf. New Trends in Environmental and Safety, Capri, Italy

2nd Motivation Question for GOVERNANCE AND POLICY: Can we regionalize specific O&M for water allocation under different strategic adaptation regional plans?

Fonte:

Mendiondo & Valdés (2002) Sustainable Development Strategies for Water Systems, In: II Int. Conf. New Trends in Environmental and Safety, Capri, Italy

Alto Jaguaribe

Médio Jaguaribe

Baixo Jaguaribe Banabuiu

Salgado

3rd Motivation Question for GOVERNANCE AND POLICY: How to assess REGIONAL AND LOCAL RESILIENCE of Municipalities under climate change and different regional plans? Número de municípios do Ceará sob estresse hídrico no período 2000-2025

Source: Araujo et al (2004)

A.N.A.(2002)

Water scarcity scenarios 2010-2050 for Middle Tiete River Basin, Sao Paulo-SP (Mendiondo, 2008)

A.N

.A.(

200

2)

UGRHI 13: Tietê-Jacaré

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2010 2010 2025 2025 2050 2050

m3

/ a

no

.ha

bita

nte

Oferta = Q7,10 Oferta até Q95%

Uso consuntivo Uso não-consuntivo

Water scarcity scenarios 2010-2050 for Middle Tiete River Basin, Sao Paulo-SP (Mendiondo, 2008)

Elements of Comprehensive Governance and Policy for Disaster Risk Reduction

based on Hyogo’s and Sendai’s Framework for Action 2005-2030

National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management

CEMADEN

CIVIL DEFENSE

CENAD

Alert & Logistics

Monitoring and Early Warning

MS, GSI, MT, Army Force

INMET, INPE, DECEA/MD & STATE CENTRES Hydrometeorology

information

MI, MCid e IBGE Disaster Risk &

Vulnerability Analyses

CPRM Geological

Vulnerability Mapping

ANA Hydrological information

Contingency & Response Plans

UNIVERSITIES & RESEARCH INSTITUTES Knowledge transfer, methods and hypothesis-testing, applied research databases on natural

disasters (vulnerability, exposure, hazards, risks)

COMMUNITY Local feedback

Institutional Framework

Centro Nacional de Gerenciamento de Riscos e Desastres (CENAD/MI)

National Partners: MME/CPRM MMA/ANA MCIDADES IBGE INPE INMET DECEA UNIVERSITIES STATE CENTRES MUNICIPALITIES COMMUNITIESS

CEMADEN

Other Partners for Monitoring & Early Warning of Natural Disasters

BRAZILIAN BANK POSTS Co. COTER (Armed Forces) MOBILE & TELECOM Co. MEC (Education Min.) CTI (Tech. Center of Information) MS (Health Min.)

International Alliances & Partners

Monitoring & Early Warning at CEMADEN

• Started in December, 2011

• 24-h, 365-day a year monitoring

• Early warning reports on landslides, mudslides, floods, floodings, flashfloods and severe drought impacts in Semi Arid Region

• 921 municipalities monitored in Brazil

Multidisciplinary Team: • Geologists • Geographers • Engineers • Hydrologists • Meteorologists • IT professionals

“Community raingauge" pilot project

LOCAL ACTION: RAIN GAUGE AT LOCAL COMMUNITIES: A CITIZEN’S NETWORK FOR EARLY WARNING

*Updated March 2015

Over 1000 raingauges installed in communities exposed to high disaster

risk

Enhancing risk perception and education for

sustainability

Governance & Policy Proposals

http://www.watergovernance.org/why

4th Motivation for Governance & Policy: how much will (urgent) water saving for Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region cost?

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Reducing Mean Consumption per Capita

("from Consumers")

Reducing Water Leaks ("from Water Supply

Company")

Ecosystem-Based Adaptation with PES

("Government Policy Part")

Demand Management Plan until year 2050. Total Saving Water until year 2050 = 17.6 m3/s. Water Withdrawal from Cantareira System in April 2015 = 15.6 m3/s

U$ 1.2 billion

U$ 0.6 billion

U$ 0.14 billion

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

0,70

Reducing Mean Consumption per Capita

("from Consumers")

Reducing Water Leaks ("from Water Supply

Company")

Ecosystem-Based Adaptation with PES

("Government Policy Part")

Demand Management Plan until year 2050: compared to São Paulo Metropolitan Region GDP(%)

Source: http://practicalaction.org/blog/author/colinmcquistan/

World cloud reflecting the content of the Sendai Framework

Governance and Policy for

Disaster Risk Reduction and Adaptation to Extremes of Climate Variability

Monitoring & Early Warning Conditions (CEMADEN/MCTI)

April 2015

Source: CEMADEN – www.cemaden.gov.br

RISK AVERSION SOLUTIONS AT SHORT-TERM: Monitoring and Early Warning

RISK AVERSION SOLUTIONS AT LONG-TERM: Optimal damage and premium (R$.km-2) from adaptation mechanisms of securitization and risk-transfer schemes (drought insurance)

Source: Laurentis (2012).

Example: Piracicaba Basin (simulated area = 10.929,9 km2, with inner sub-basins)

Actors of change

Scenarios Climate Land use

Wat. Avail.

No change

Cli X

ClUso X X

ClDis X X

ClUsDi X X X

SMud X

Governance and Policies related to Disaster Risk Reduction Framework

• International cooperation in support of a post 2015 framework for disaster risk

• Governing Disaster Risk - Overcoming Challenges

• Public Investment in Disaster Risk Reduction

• Reducing Disaster Risk in Urban Settings

• Mobilizing Women’s Leadership in Disaster Risk Reduction

• Risk sensitive Investments

• Public Private Partnerships

• Inclusive Disaster Risk Management

• Risk Identification and Assessment

CEMADEN/MCTI’s Governance & Policy

for BRICS 2015-2018 Plan with: • Sendai recovery as a model for turning disaster tragedies into

sustainable future,

• Majority of natural disasters are climate related,

• Global agendas look for pre-emptive spending to reduce disaster risks,

• Risk transfer is key to raising world’s disaster resilience

• Early warning saves lives but communities need targeted, useful information,

• Involvement at local level is critical to reducing disaster risk

• Reducing disaster risk is vital to end poverty,

• Banks & governments need global innovation challenge to boost understanding of disaster risks”

• Post 2015 framework on disaster risk reduction

• National and regional plans on disaster risk management

• Lessons to learn from Resilient Regions with Pilot Projects

Thank you!

Eduardo Mario Mendiondo

www.cemaden.gov.br & emm@cemaden.gov.br