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Educating students
for their future
not our past Rosobrnadzor, 7 September 2017
Andreas Schleicher Director for Education and Skills
Trends in science performance (PISA)
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2003 2006 2009
Score points
Belo
w L
evel 1
Level 1
Level 3
Level
4
Le
v
5
Level 2
450
470
490
510
530
550
570
2006 2009 2012 2015
OECD
450
470
490
510
530
550
570
OECD average
Stu
de
nt
pe
rfo
rma
nc
e
Trends in science performance (PISA)
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2003 2006 2009
Score points
Belo
w L
evel 1
Level 1
Level 3
Level
4
Le
v
5
Level 2
450
470
490
510
530
550
570
450
470
490
510
530
550
570
2006 2009 2012 2015
OECD average
4 Looking forward to… Better anticipate the evolution of the demand for 21st century skills and better integrate the world of
work and learning
Leverage the potential of all learners
Find more innovative solutions to what we learn, how we learn, when
we learn and where we learn
Advance from an industrial towards a professional work organisation
Building learning systems that…
The kind of things that are easy to teach are
now easy to automate, digitize or outsource
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009
Routine manual
Nonroutine manual
Routine cognitive
Nonroutine analytic
Nonroutine interpersonal
Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task
Robotics
The Auto-auto >1m km,
one minor accident,
occasional human intervention
Augmented Reality
A lot more to come
• 3D printing
• Synthetic biology
• Brain enhancements
• Nanomaterials
• Etc.
Environmental
degradation
Climate change
Migration
Middle class
Polarisation
of societies
Renewable energy
Loss of
biodiversity Water and food
shortages Natural
disasters
Financial
crises Nationalism
Democratisation
Multinational
companies
Harmonization
of values
Interdependent
markets
Trade
openness Emerging
economies
Poverty
Ageing
Radicalisation
Tourism
Inequality
International
governance
Global
integration
The multi-faceted world of knowledge
The human world of knowledge
The small world of the curriculum
The small world of the curriculum
The small world of the curriculum
The small world of the curriculum
The small world of the curriculum
The small world of the curriculum
The True The realm of human knowledge The Good
The realm of ethics and judgement
The Just and Well-Ordered The realm of political and civic life,
binding social capital The Beautiful The realm of creativity,
esthetics and design The Sustainable The realm of natural and physical health The Prosperous
The realm of economic life
The big world of learning
OECD Learning Framework 2030
• Rigor, focus and coherence
• Remain true to the disciplines – but aim at interdisciplinary learning and the capacity of students to see
problems through multiple lenses
– Balance knowledge of disciplines and knowledge about disciplines
• Focus on areas with the highest transfer value – Requiring a theory of action for how this transfer value occurs
• Authenticity – Thematic, problem-based, project-based, co-creation in conversation
• Some things are caught not taught – Immersive learning propositions
• Equity – Not just a proposition for the few but for the many
•20 Reimagining learning
Multi-layered, coherent assessment systems from classrooms to schools to regional to national to international levels that…
• Support improvement of learning at all levels of the education system
• Are largely performance-based
• Make students’ thinking visible and allow for divergent thinking Are adaptable and responsive to new developments
• Add value for teaching and learning by providing information that can be acted on by students, teachers, and administrators Are part of a comprehensive and well-aligned continuum, communicate what is expected and hold relevant stakeholders accountable .
What this means for evaluation and assessment
• 2012: Financial literacy
• 2015: Social skills
– Collaborative problem-solving
• 2018: Global competency
– Skills, knowledge, understanding
• 2021: Creative thinking
• PISA for schools
PISA
• Can we sufficiently distinguish the role of context from that of the underlying cognitive construct ?
• Do new types of items that are enabled by computers and networks change the constructs that are being measured ?
• Can we drink from the firehose of increasing data streams that arise from new assessment modes ?
• Can we utilise new technologies and new ways of thinking of assessments to gain more information from the classroom without overwhelming the classroom with more assessments ?
• What is the right mix of crowd wisdom and traditional validity information ?
• How can we create assessments that are activators of students’ own learning ?
Some methodological challenges
Routine cognitive skills Complex ways of thinking, complex ways of doing, collective capacity
Some students learn at high levels (sorting) All students need to learn at high levels Student inclusion
Curriculum, instruction and assessment
Standardisation and compliance High-level professional knowledge workers Teacher quality
‘Tayloristic’, hierarchical Flat, collegial Work organisation
Primarily to authorities Primarily to peers and stakeholders Accountability
System transformations The old bureaucratic system The modern enabling system
Some students learn at high levels
All students learn at high levels
Uniformity
Diversity
Embracing diversity with differentiated pedagogical practices
Poverty is not destiny - Science performance by international deciles of the PISA index of economic, social and cultural status (ESCS)
280
330
380
430
480
530
580
630
Ru
ssia
5
OE
CD
avera
ge
12
Vie
t N
am
76
B-S
-J-G
(C
hin
a)
52
Sin
ga
pore
11
Score
poin
ts
Bottom decile
Second decile
Middle decile
Ninth decile
Top decile
Figure I.6.7
Poverty is not destiny - Science performance by international deciles of the PISA index of economic, social and cultural status (ESCS)
280
330
380
430
480
530
580
630D
om
inic
an R
ep
ub
lic 4
0A
lge
ria 5
2K
oso
vo
10
Qa
tar
3F
YR
OM
13
Tu
nis
ia 3
9M
on
ten
eg
ro 1
1Jord
an 2
1U
nite
d A
rab
Em
ira
tes 3
Ge
org
ia 1
9L
eb
an
on
27
Indo
nesia
74
Me
xic
o 5
3P
eru
50
Co
sta
Ric
a 3
8B
razil
43
Tu
rke
y 5
9M
old
ova 2
8T
haila
nd
55
Co
lom
bia
43
Ice
lan
d 1
Trin
idad
and
Tob
ago
14
Rom
an
ia 2
0Is
rae
l 6
Bu
lga
ria
13
Gre
ece
13
Russia
5U
rug
ua
y 3
9C
hile
27
Latv
ia 2
5L
ith
uan
ia 1
2S
lova
k R
ep
ub
lic 8
Italy
15
Norw
ay 1
Sp
ain
31
Hun
ga
ry 1
6C
roa
tia
10
De
nm
ark
3O
EC
D a
vera
ge
12
Sw
ed
en
3M
alta 1
3U
nite
d S
tate
s 1
1M
acao
(C
hin
a)
22
Ire
lan
d 5
Au
str
ia 5
Po
rtug
al 2
8L
uxe
mb
ourg
14
Ho
ng K
on
g (
Ch
ina
) 2
6C
zech
Rep
ublic
9P
ola
nd
16
Au
str
alia
4U
nite
d K
ing
do
m 5
Can
ad
a 2
Fra
nce 9
Ko
rea
6N
ew
Zea
land
5S
witze
rlan
d 8
Ne
the
rlan
ds 4
Slo
ve
nia
5B
elg
ium
7F
inla
nd
2E
sto
nia
5V
iet
Nam
76
Ge
rma
ny 7
Jap
an 8
Chin
ese
Ta
ipe
i 1
2B
-S-J
-G (
Chin
a)
52
Sin
ga
pore
11
Score
poin
ts
Bottom decile Second decile Middle decile Ninth decile Top decile
Figure I.6.7
% of students
in the bottom
international
deciles of
ESCS
OECD median student
Spending per student from the age of 6 to 15 and
science performance
Figure II.6.2
Luxembourg
Switzerland Norway Austria
Singapore
United States
United Kingdom
Malta
Sweden
Belgium
Iceland
Denmark
Finland
Netherlands
Canada
Japan Slovenia
Australia
Germany
Ireland France Italy
Portugal
New Zealand
Korea Spain
Poland Israel
Estonia
Czech Rep.
Latvia Slovak Rep.
Russia
Croatia Lithuania
Hungary Costa Rica
Chinese Taipei
Chile
Brazil
Turkey
Uruguay Bulgaria
Mexico
Thailand Montenegro Colombia
Dominican Republic
Peru
Georgia
11,7; 411
R² = 0,01
R² = 0,41
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Scie
nce p
erf
orm
an
ce (
sco
re p
oin
ts)
Average spending per student from the age of 6 to 15 (in thousands USD, PPP)
Bureaucratic Look-up
Devolved Look-outward
Developing Teaching
as a profession
Recruit top candidates into the profession
Support teachers in continued
development of practice
Retain and recognise effective teachers – path for growth
Improve the
societal view of
teaching as a
profession
Mean mathematics performance, by school location, after acc
ounting for socio-economic status 3
4
Effective teacher policy and practice
Mean mathematics performance, by school location,
after accounting for socio-economic status 35
Teachers' perceptions of the value of teaching in society
Percentage of lower secondary education teachers who "agree" or "strongly agree" that teaching is a
valued profession in society
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mala
ysia
Sin
gapore
Kore
a
Abu D
habi (U
nited A
rab…
Finla
nd
Mexi
co
Alb
erta (Canada)
Flanders
(Belg
ium
)
Neth
erlands
Aust
ralia
Engla
nd (United K
ingdom
)
Rom
ania
Isra
el
United S
tate
s
Chile
Ave
rage
Norw
ay
Japan
Latv
ia
Serb
ia
Bulg
aria
Denm
ark
Pola
nd
Icela
nd
Est
onia
Bra
zil
Italy
Cze
ch R
epublic
Portugal
Cro
atia
Spain
Sw
eden
France
Slo
vak
Republic
Perc
enta
ge o
f te
ach
ers
Items are ranked in descending order, based on the percentage of teachers who strongly agree or agree that teaching is a valued profession in society.
Mean mathematics performance, by school location,
after accounting for socio-economic status Fig II.3.3 3
6
Relationship between the perceived value of the teaching
profession and the share of PISA top performers (math)
Relationship between lower secondary education teachers' views on the value of their profession in society and the
share of top mathematics performers in PISA 2012
Australia
Brazil
Bulgaria Chile
Croatia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia Finland France
Iceland Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
Latvia
Mexico
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania Serbia
Singapore
Slovak Republic
Spain Sweden
Alberta (Canada)
England (United
Kingdom)
Flanders (Belgium)
United States
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Share
of
math
em
atics
top p
erf
orm
ers
Percentage of teachers who agree that teaching is valued in society
37 Teachers’ skills Numeracy test scores of tertiary graduates and teachers
Numeracy score 215 235 255 275 295 315 335 355 375
SpainPolandEstonia
United StatesCanadaIreland
KoreaEngland (UK)
England/N. Ireland (UK)Denmark
Northern Ireland (UK)France
AustraliaSweden
Czech RepublicAustria
NetherlandsNorway
GermanyFlanders (Belgium)
FinlandJapan
Numeracy score
Numeracy skills of middle half of
college graduates
38 Teachers’ skills Numeracy test scores of tertiary graduates and teachers
Numeracy score 215 235 255 275 295 315 335 355 375
SpainPolandEstonia
United StatesCanadaIreland
KoreaEngland (UK)
England/N. Ireland (UK)Denmark
Northern Ireland (UK)France
AustraliaSweden
Czech RepublicAustria
NetherlandsNorway
GermanyFlanders (Belgium)
FinlandJapan
Numeracy score
Numeracy skills of teachers
Student-teacher ratios and class size Figure II.6.14
CABA (Argentina)
Jordan
Viet Nam
Poland
United States
Chile
Denmark
Hungary
B-S-G-J (China)
Turkey
Georgia
Chinese Taipei
Mexico
Russia
Albania
Hong Kong (China)
Japan
Belgium
Algeria
Colombia
Peru
Macao (China)
Switzerland
Malta
Dominican Republic
Netherlands
Singapore
Brazil
Kosovo
Finland
Thailand
R² = 0,25
5
10
15
20
25
30
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Stu
den
t-te
ach
er
rati
o
Class size in language of instruction
High student-teacher ratios
and small class sizes
Low student-teacher ratios
and large class sizes
OECD
average
OE
CD
ave
rage
The ‘productivity’ puzzle
Making learning time productive so that students can build their academic, social and emotional
skills in a balanced way
Learning time and science performance Figure II.6.23
Finland
Germany Switzerland
Japan Estonia
Sweden
Netherlands New Zealand
Macao (China)
Iceland
Hong Kong (China) Chinese Taipei
Uruguay
Singapore
Poland United States
Israel
Bulgaria
Korea
Russia Italy
Greece
B-S-J-G (China)
Colombia
Chile
Mexico
Brazil
Costa Rica
Turkey
Montenegro Peru
Qatar Thailand
United Arab
Emirates
Tunisia
Dominican Republic
R² = 0,21
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
35 40 45 50 55 60
PIS
A s
cie
nce s
co
re
Total learning time in and outside of school
OECD average
OECD average
OE
CD
ave
rage
Learning time and science performance Figure II.6.23
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Fin
land
Germ
any
Sw
itzerl
and
Japa
nE
sto
nia
Sw
ede
nN
eth
erl
and
sN
ew
Zeala
nd
Austr
alia
Czech R
epu
blic
Ma
ca
o (
Ch
ina
)U
nite
d K
ing
dom
Ca
nad
aB
elg
ium
Fra
nce
No
rwa
yS
loven
iaIc
ela
nd
Lu
xe
mbo
urg
Ire
land
La
tvia
Ho
ng K
on
g (
Chin
a)
OE
CD
avera
ge
Ch
ine
se
Taip
ei
Austr
iaP
ort
ug
al
Uru
guay
Lithu
ania
Sin
gapo
reD
enm
ark
Hu
nga
ryP
ola
nd
Slo
vak R
epub
licM
assachu
se
tsS
pain
Cro
atia
Un
ite
d S
tate
sIs
rael
Bulg
aria
Kore
aR
ussia
Ita
lyG
reece
B-S
-J-G
(C
hin
a)
Co
lom
bia
Ch
ileM
exic
oB
razil
Co
sta
Ric
aT
urk
ey
Mo
nte
neg
roP
eru
Qata
rT
ha
iland
Un
ite
d A
rab E
mira
tes
Tun
isia
Do
min
ican
Rep
ublic
Score
poin
ts in s
cie
nce p
er
hour
of to
tal le
arn
ing t
ime
Hours Intended learning time at school (hours) Study time after school (hours) Score points in science per hour of total learning time
More teacher support and less anxiety Figure III.4.5
5% less likely 4% less likely
16% more likely
29% more likely
9% less likely
17% less likely
44% more likely
60% more likely
The teacher adapts the lesson to my class’s needs
and knowledge
The teacher providesindividual help when astudent has difficulties
understanding a topic or task
Teachers graded me harderthan they graded other
students
Teachers gave me theimpression that they think Iam less smart than I really
am
Odds r
atios (
logarith
mic
scale
)
Even if I am well prepared for a test I feel very anxious
I get very tense when I studyMore likely
Less likely
As likely
Delivered wisdom
User-generated wisdom
Recognising both students and adults as resources for the co-creation of communities, for the design
of learning and for the success of students
What teachers say and what teachers do
What knowledge, skills and character qualities do
successful teachers require?
96% of teachers: My role as a teacher is to facilitate students own inquiry
What knowledge, skills and character qualities do
successful teachers require?
86%: Students learn best by findings solutions on their own
What knowledge, skills and character qualities do
successful teachers require?
74%: Thinking and reasoning is more important than curriculum content
Prevalence of memorisation rehearsal, routine exercises, drill and
practice and/or repetition
-2,00 -1,50 -1,00 -0,50 0,00 0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00
Switzerland
Poland
Germany
Japan
Korea
France
Sweden
Shanghai-China
Canada
Singapore
United States
Norway
Spain
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Prevalence of elaboration reasoning, deep learning, intrinsic motivation, critical thinking, creativity, non-routine problems
High Low Low High
Memorisation is less useful as problems become more difficult (OECD average)
R² = 0,81
0,70
1,00
300 400 500 600 700 800
Difficulty of mathematics item on the PISA scale
Source: Figure 4.3
Difficult problem
Easy problem
Greater success
Less success
Odds ratio
Control strategies are always helpful but less so as problems become more difficult (OECD average)
R² = 0,31
0,95
1,20
300 400 500 600 700 800Difficulty of mathematics item on the PISA scale
Source: Figure 5.2 52
Difficult problem
Greater success
Less success
Easy problem
Odds ratio
Elaboration strategies are more useful as problems become more difficult (OECD average)
R² = 0,82
0,80
1,50
300 400 500 600 700 800
Difficulty of mathematics item on the PISA scale Source: Figure 6.2
Difficult problem
Greater success
Less success
Easy problem
Odds ratio
Teaching and learning strategies in mathematics
R² = 0,10
More teacher-directed
instruction Teaching
More memorisation
Lea
rnin
g
OECD average
More elaboration
More student-oriented
instruction
Chinese Taipei
Vietnam
Macao-China Korea
Hong-Kong China
Japan
Shanghai- China
Ireland
Hungary
France
Croatia
United Kingdom
Australia New Zealand
Approaches to teaching
Better
Engagement and career expectations Better
Learning outcomes
Student-oriented Teacher-directed
The past was divided
Teachers and content divided by subjects and student destinations
Schools designed to keep students inside, and the rest of the world outside
The future is integrated Integrated: Emphasising integration of subjects, integration of
students and integration of learning contexts
Connected: with real-world contexts, and permeable to the rich resources in the community
Less subject-based, more project-based
Prescription
Informed profession
Professional knowledge
Professional autonomy
A collaborative
culture
External forces
exerting pressure and
influence inward on
an occupation
Internal motivation and
efforts of the members
of the profession itself
60 Professionalism
Professionalism is the level of autonomy and internal regulation exercised by members of an
occupation in providing services to society
Mean mathematics performance, by school location,
after accounting for socio-economic status Fig II.3.3 6
1 6
1
Policy levers to teacher professionalism
Knowledge base for teaching (initial education and incentives for professional development)
Autonomy: Teachers’ decision-making power over their work (teaching content, course offerings, discipline practices)
Peer networks: Opportunities for exchange and support needed to maintain high standards of teaching (participation in induction,
mentoring, networks, feedback from direct observations)
Teacher
professionalism
Mean mathematics performance, by school location,
after accounting for socio-economic status Fig II.3.3 6
2 6
2
Teacher professionalism
Knowledge base for teaching (initial education and incentives for professional development)
Autonomy: Teachers’ decision-making power over their work (teaching content, course offerings, discipline practices)
Peer networks: Opportunities for exchange and support needed to maintain high standards of teaching (participation in induction,
mentoring, networks, feedback from direct observations)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10S
pain
Ja
pa
n
Fra
nce
Bra
zil
Fin
land
Fla
nd
ers
No
rway
Alb
ert
a (
Canada)
Au
str
alia
De
nm
ark
Isra
el
Ko
rea
United S
tate
s
Cze
ch R
epu
blic
Sh
an
gh
ai (C
hin
a)
Latv
ia
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Po
land
En
gla
nd
Ne
w Z
ea
land
Sin
ga
po
re
Esto
nia
Networks Autonomy Knowledge
Mean mathematics performance, by school location, after accounting for socio-economic status Fig II.3.3 63 63 TALIS Teacher professionalism index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Discu
ss indiv
idual
students
Share
reso
urc
es
Team
confe
rence
s
Colla
bora
te for
com
mon s
tandard
s
Team
teach
ing
Colla
bora
tive
PD
Join
t act
ivitie
s
Cla
ssro
om
obse
rvations
Perc
enta
ge o
f te
ach
ers
Average
Professional collaboration
Percentage of lower secondary teachers who report doing the following activities at least once per month
Professional collaboration among teachers
Exchange and co-ordination
(OECD countries)
Teachers Self-Efficacy and Professional Collaboration
11,40
11,60
11,80
12,00
12,20
12,40
12,60
12,80
13,00
13,20
13,40
Never
Once
a y
ear
or
less
2-4
tim
es
a y
ear
5-1
0 t
imes
a y
ear
1-3
tim
es
a m
onth
Once
a w
eek o
r m
ore
Teach
er
self-e
ffic
acy
(le
vel)
Teach jointly as a team in the same class
Observe other teachers’ classes and provide feedback
Engage in joint activities across different classes
Take part in collaborative professional learning
Less frequently
More frequently
Idiosyncratic policies
Alignment of policies
Find out more about our work at www.oecd.org/pisa
– All publications
– The complete micro-level database
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: SchleicherOECD
Wechat: AndreasSchleicher
and remember:
Without data, you are just another person with an opinion
Thank you