Ending the Fossil Fuel Addiction: What will it Take?

Dr. Kyle ForinashProfessor of Physics

School of Natural SciencesIndiana University Southeast

New Albany, IN,USA

Now!!

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 20500123456789

10

UN Population Projections.

WorldAsiaAfricaIndiaChinaEuropeSouthern AmericaNorthern AmericaAustrailia & NZ

Year

Billi

ons

Asia 38% (58%)

Africa 4% (14%)

South & Central America 5% (5%)

North America 23% (7%)

Europe 25% (10%)

Middle East 5% (4%)

Energy Consumption (and Population) by Region, 2011.

World Primary Energy by Source, 2011531 Quad Btu (83% Fossil).

US: 300 metric tons of fossil fuel per second!

33% Liquids

22% Natural Gas

28% Coal

5% Nu-

clear

11% Renewable

World Primary Energy by Source, 2011531 Quad Btu (83% Fossil)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Energy Information Administration Projec-tions (53% Increase, World)

United StatesChinaIndiaEuropeCentral & South AmericaAfrica

Year

Qua

d Bt

u

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 198590

110

130

150

170

190

210

Forecasts of US Energy Use for 2000.

Year of Forecast

Qua

d Bt

u (≈

1 ex

a Jo

ule)

Actual Consumption in 2000

How Much Oil Is There? (Should we worry?)

Definitions.

• Resource or ‘oil in place’: Estimate of what is there.• Proven Reserve: 90% confidence it can be

extracted with given technology (primary + secondary + tertiary methods).

• Ultimately Recoverable: Proven + extracted. • Unproven Reserve: 10-50% confidence.• Shale Oil: Compounds in shale that can be cooked

into oil.• Tight oil: Oil extracted by fracking.

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2009

0

50

100

150

200

250

Discovered Oil by Year (World).

Year

Billl

ion

Barr

els

“Huge Discoveries of Oil!” ?(Proven Reserve)

• 2012 India – 5.7 Bbl• 2011 Gulf of Mexico – 0.5 Bbl• 2007 Brazil – 8 Bbl• 2006 Gulf of Mexico – 15 Bbl• North Slope Alaska – 11.8 Bbl• Eagle Ford, Texas – 4 Bbl• US Annual Consumption – 7 Bbl

In 1956 M. King Hubbert predicted that US oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Excerpt from Hubbert's original paper:

Lower 48 Plus AlaskaActual:

19701973

19761979

19821985

19881991

19941997

20002003

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Oil Production for Select Countries.

Ecuador

Colombia

Brazil

Australia

Argentina

Syria

North Sea

Oman

Egypt

Norway

Year

Thou

sand

Bar

rels

per

Day

Sample Hubbert Results (world).

Resource Peak Year Recoverable Resource, Quad

Conventional Oil 2008 11264

Natural Gas + Fracking 2025 9307

Petroleum + Shale Oil 2033 21935

Coal 2060 22696

Uranium 2113 5080000

The Earth is Warming.

Alaska: Face ofGlacier in 1951

Alaska: Face ofGlacier in 2001

Transportation Accounts for 27% of the Energy Used in the U.S.

74% heat loss4% idling loss

3% acceleration

3% transmission loss

6% rolling friction7% air drag

3% accessories

Where Does Your $1 of Gas Go?

Technology of the Past 20 Years Has Been Used to Make Cars 9% Bigger with 40% More HP.

Gasoline Will be Hard to Replace.

Fuel Energy per Weight (MJ/kg)Hydrogen 114 (10 liquid; 5 compressed gas)Gasoline 48Plant Oil (Bio-Diesel) 38Ethanol 28Common Coal 22Natural Gas (STP) 20Air Dried Wood 15Potatoes 4Carbon Fiber Flywheel 0.8Fruits and Vegetables 0.6 - 1.8Lithium Batteries (at 400C) 0.2Lead Batteries 0.1

Problems with Hydrogen As a Car Fuel.

• H2 is not a fuel (requires energy to make).

• 40% energy loss to make H2 from natural gas.

• 80% energy loss to make H2 from grid electricity.

• H2 is more difficult to transport and more dangerous than diesel, gasoline, propane or natural gas. (Transportation of propane is highly restricted.)

• H2 will require a new distribution grid (compared to existing electric grid).

Plant Oil as a Fuel?US transportation consumption (2004): 27.8 QuadEnergy production, all arable land in the US cultivated

with soybeans (bio-diesel): 25.6 Quad

Ethanol Biodiesel Surgarcane Photovoltaic0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0.055 0.16 0.4

17

Energy Recovered per 10,000 km2

Qua

d

The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics Limits Thermal Engine Efficiencies.

Process Conversion Type EfficiencyLarge Electric Generator Mechanical to Electrical 98-99%Large Electric Motor Electrical to Mechanical 90-97%Home Gas Furnace Chemical to Thermal 90-96%Small Electric Motor Electrical to Mechanical 60-75%Fuel Cell Chemical to Electrical

50-60%Large Steam Turbine Thermal to Mechanical 40-45%Diesel Engine Thermal to Mechanical

30-35%Gasoline Engine Thermal to Mechanical 15-25%Florescent Lights Electrical to Radiative 15-25%Incandescent Lights Electrical to Radiative 2-5%Plant Photosynthesis Radiative to Chemical 1%

How Many New Power Plants to Convert to Electric Vehicles?

•Annual US transportation needs (primary energy): 27.8 Quad.•Assuming a 50% efficient electric car we need 10.8 Quad of primary energy to replace our 20% efficient gasoline cars.•For a 1,000 MW power plant (coal, gas or nuclear) operating at 80% capacity this is 450 new plants (current US total is 950 plants).•For a 2MW windmill operating at 40% capacity this is about 452,000 windmills. •For 20% efficient solar panels this is 21,400 km2 (the size of New Hampshire).

Electric (grid)

Fuel Cell (H2)

IC (H2)

Hybrid Elec. (diesel)

IC (diesel)

LPG

Flex Fuel

Hybrid Elec. (gasoline)

IC (gasoline)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Well to Wheels Emissions and Energy Use (Argonne NL Greet Model).

GHG (g/km)Total EnergyVehicle Operation FuelFeedstock

Emissions (g/km) and Energy (104 J/km)

Pipeline

Wate

r

Rail (fr

eight)

Truck

s

Air (fre

ight)

Rail (p

assenge

rs) Bus

Air (pass

engers) Car

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Rail: 4X More Efficent than TrucksRail: 12X More Efficient than Cars

Ener

gy

MJ/passenger-kmMJ/tonne-km

What about Renewables?

Available Renewable Energy (world).

Source Estimated Total Energy (Quad)

Estimated Recoverable

Current Use (Quad)

Solar (over land) 8.1x105 30,000 2.2 Thermal0.2 PV

Wind (over land) 1.1x104 200 to 1800 0.4

Biomass* 2.8x103 12 to 1200 21

Hydroelectric 300 to 900 40 to 60 2.7

Tidal 90 10 0.01

Wave 60 15 to 30 0.01

Geothermal 1.3x104 30 0.5

(*food crops, grassy and woody plants, residues from agriculture or forestry, organic component of municipal and industrial wastes, fumes from landfills)

To supply all energy used in 2005, with solar* or wind†.

(*20% efficiency solar cell, 50% storage and transmission loss.)(†2MW windmill, 40% efficiency)

Country Energy Use (Quad) % Area Solar Number of Windmills

Argentina 2.7 0.2 113,000China 46.6 0.9 1,950,000Denmark 0.9 3.7 37,700Egypt 2.8 0.4 117,200France 11.2 3.7 468,700Ghana 0.1 0.1 4200Japan 22.4 10.8 937,500Russia 17.1 0.3 715,700UK 9.8 7.8 410,100US 98.8 1.9 4,101,500

Dollar per MWh for Electricity.

Source Size (MW)

Capacity Factor %

Capital Cost

Fixed O&M

Fuel Cost

Transmission Cost

Total Cost

Coal 600 85 57 3.7 23 3.5 87

Gas 87 20 1.6 55 3.8 80

Nuclear 1350 90 82 10 9 4 105

Biomass/Landfill

80 83 64 9 25 4 102

Geothermal 50 90 77 22 0 5 104

Hydropower 500 40-60 57 7 0 5 69

Wind, onshoreWind, offshore

5050

3633

73171

1029

00

89

91210

Solar Thermal 100 31 220 21 0 10.6 252

Photovoltaic 5 22 342 6.2 0 13 362

Conservation -60

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 4500.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00NorwayUS

Switzerland

AustriaSpain SingaporeBarbadosArgentina

HungaryCosta Rica MexicoMalaysiaVenezuelaTailand

OmanSri Lanka

DominicanSamoaNicaraqua

NamibiaMongoliaCambodiaCongo

LaosUgandaAngolaMalawiGuinea-BissauNiger

Human Development Index versus Energy Use Per Capita.

Energy Use per Capita, Joules x109

Hum

an D

evel

opm

ent I

ndex

Won’t Conservation Hurt?

Two Examples:

Refrigerators since 1970: • Increase in efficiency by 75% • Drop in price by 60% • Increase in volume by 20% on average

European and Japanese cars compete well with American cars but use less gas.

Nuclear Choices.

• Death and cancer rates much lower for nuclear than coal, oil or natural gas use per kWh.

• France gets ~75% of electricity from nuclear (19.6% for the US, 17% for world in 2003).

• 'Inherently safe' reactors (pebble bed, modular design, few moving parts, smaller).

• The radioactive waste problem (vitrification, fuel recycling).

• Fusion: First reactor by 2050?

Summary

• Use of oil is going to decline; coal & natural gas will last a while longer (but CO2 is a problem).

• Hydrogen, plant fuel are probably not good ideas.• Conservation should play a big role.• Use of renewables should be increased: wind,

biomass, hydroelectric, and especially solar.• Use of electric power should be increased where

possible because of higher efficiency.• Nuclear power may be a necessary evil.• New sources? Methane hydrates?

Conclusion: There is no silver bullet.

Kyle ForinashIndiana University

Southeasthomepages.ius.edu/kforinas/Forinash.html

Island Press, April 2010