Energy descent and New Zealand

agriculture

Solis Norton

November 24, 2011

For correspondence: Solis.norton@johnes.org.nz

Introduction

• Exponential human growth is unsustainable - Bartlett

• Same lecture, 1600 times since 1969 – no effect

• Western world (ag) continues to intensify

• ‘Peak everything’ is upon us

• IPCC and PCE reports call for redesign of agriculture toward

resilience and genuine sustainability

• Energy descent = de-intensification of agriculture

• What does this mean?

Challenges to NZ ag

• Peak Oil -

• Climate change

• Environmental constraints

• Water constraints

• Market instability reflects increasing to maintain BAU

Agriculture faces unprecedented challenge

Drivers of energy use in ag

Drivers of energy use in ag

• Fuel • Fertiliser• Impact of oil price on these drivers• Impact of less of these drivers (like urea)• Globally, wider utilisation at lower rates is real

opportunity• Depends on equitable distribution…• Greater equity = faster transition for us

Transition toward organics

Declining energy is synonymous with a transition toward organic production systems

Characteristics of organic systems

• Less energy intensive fertiliser

• Lower stocking rate

• Overall lower input per ha

• Lower output per ha ~25%

• Greater resilience to shocks?

Output energy

Efficient vs intensive

Organic production systems are less intensive• Lower inputs/ha• Lower outputs/ha

Organic systems are not more efficient

• Ability to convert input energy to output energy is same as conventional

• No scope to improve this on the scale required to match descent.

EROI

Food production will decline

• Do we grow foods that are in demand?

• Prioritise foods with a high EROI… cheap nutrition?

• Is this a risk or an opportunity? On what scale?

• Need a plan for this transition processes

• It will take time and energy to devise this plan

• How long? – 5 years? 10 years?

A plan and timeline

Transition experience

Management system

Ene

rgy

prod

uced

in m

ilk (

MJ/

ha)

010

000

2000

030

000

4000

050

000

Conv Trans Conv Trans Conv Trans Conv Trans Conv Trans

Ref P=0.13 P=0.02 P<0.00 P<0.00 P<0.00

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08

Building resilience

• Change ag currency from money to energy

• Avoid ‘lost decades’ following turbulence

• This will take us further into descent

• The longer we wait the harder it will be to effect the

necessary changes

Leadership group

• New Zealand has agriculture and the All Blacks

• Set a precedent for other countries to follow

• Need a starting point and a new language…

• Initiate with small pan-industry leadership group

• Minimal governmental input, 300k/yr

• Create a plan and estimate a timeline

• Communicate

Group composition

• Chairman

• Energy specialist(s)

• Industry reps (dairy, sheep/beef, etc)

• Economist

• Doer

• Maximum number of 8 people

• Linked to key NZ agriculture bodies

Existing pathways

• FarmsOnLine – contact all the farmers!

• FarmIQ – demand driven integrated value chain for red meat

• Fonterra

• Meat and Wool NZ

• DINZ

• MAF

• Farmer groups…

Discussion

Driven by profit or sustainability?

The coming challenges are unavoidable

No framework or even language exists to meet them

The time for extensive research to assess plans grows short

A small dedicated group is one alternative to investigate options and communicate issues

Cheap to run and well connected, it could offer real benefit

Action while action is still easy.