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Energy Security & Geopolitics
1
2019-2-27. GSDM international ConferenceFormer Executive Director, IEAChairman, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
Nobuo TANAKA
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WEO2017
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The new geography of energyEnergy demand
In 2000, more than 40% of global demand was in Europe & North America and some 20% in developing economies in Asia.
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By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.
WEO2018
3
Oil
Advancedeconomies
Developingeconomies
Gas
Advancedeconomies
Developingeconomies
Fuelling the demand for energy
The increase in demand would be twice as large without continued improvementsin energy efficiency, a powerful tool to address energy security & sustainability concerns
Coal
Advancedeconomies
Developingeconomies
Change in global energy demand, 2017-2040
-600
-300
0
300
600
900
1 200
1 500
Renewables & nuclear
Mtoe
Advancedeconomies
Developingeconomies
Re
new
ab
les
Nuclear
Industry
Other
Power
Cars
Other
Petro-chemical
Cars
Power
Other
Power
WEO2018
4
Tipping the energy world off its axis
Four large-scale upheavals/revolutions in global energy set the scene for the new Outlook:
– The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader for oil & gas
– Solar PV is on track to be the cheapest source of new electricity in many
countries
– China is switching to a new economic model & a cleaner energy mix
– Electricity is broadening its horizon, spurred by cooling, electric vehicles &
digitalisation
These changes brighten the prospects for affordable, sustainable energy & require a reappraisal of approaches to energy security.
There are many possible pathways ahead & many potential pitfalls if governments or industry misread the signs of change
WEO2017
China
5
World’s largest crude oil producers
The US is now the world’s largest crude oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.
It increased the total oil production by incredible 2.1 mb/d in 2018.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
$/bblmb/d
United States Russia Saudi Arabia WTI
IEA data
6
25
30
35
Shale makes US the undisputed leader for oil & gas
Oil and gas production in the United States
The US is already switching to become a net exporter of gas & becomes a net exporter of oil in the 2020s, helped also by the demand-side impact of fuel efficiency & fuel switching
5
10
15
20
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
mboe/d Shale oil
Shale gas
Other unconventionals
Conventional oil & gas
WEO2017
7
mb/d
-4
-2
+2
+4
+6
+8
+10
+12
2017 2025 2030 2035 2040
Middle East remains central to oil market stability
Oil production growth in United States, Canada, Brazil & the Middle East
The short-term picture of a well-supplied market should not obscure future riskas demand rises to 106 mb/d & reliance grows on Iraq & the rest of the Middle East
Canada
Brazil
Middle East
United States
Net decline in output from other producers
IEA data
8
North American Energy Independence and Middle East Oil to Asia: a new Energy Geopolitics
Middle East oil export by destination
By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia; North America’s emergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade
7
United StatesJapan & Korea EuropeChina India
mb/d 2000
2011
2035
1
2
3
4
5
6
IEA WEO2012
9
Should China and India join
the IEA?
Net oil imports of selected countries in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d)
Asia becomes the unrivalled centre of the global oil trade as the region draws in a
rising share of the available crude
5
10
15
20
25
OECD China & India
2000
2012
2020
2035
10
The Choke Point: the Strait of Hormuz
11
17 mbd of petroleum (20% of global demand & 42% of trade)
82 million tons of LNG pa (30% of global demand)
85% of Japanese oil import
20% of Japanese LNG import
85% of Japanese oil import20% of Japanese LNG importChubu Electric depends 40% of its power supply on one source: Qatar.
11
US withdrawal from JCPOA impacted on Iran’s crude oil supply.Now US issued sanctions waivers for eight countries importing Iranian oil for
the next 180 days. The countries – including India, China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Greece, Italy and Turkey.
Iran’s Crude Oil supply and US sanction
IEA OMR 2018-Dec
12
13
Iran civil war scenario
14
2020President Trump re-elected
2019China stops oil import from Iran
2020Iran’s oil export decreases to almost zero
2020Oil price skyrockets
2020Russia remains on the sidelines
2021IRGCadministration established
2020U.S.-Iran deal failed
2021Iran secedes from JCPOA
2021Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities
2022Saudi Arabia attacks Iran, Tanker war
2020sGrowing discontent among public
2020sIS expands activities in Iran
2020sUprising of minorities
2025IRGC breaking apart
Hard-liners refuse to make a compromise
Moderate wing has Hassan Khomeini as their head
2020sChina gradually restarts oil import from Iran
Civil war in Iran
Division of Iran
2030sSecession of minorities
15
Power Plant
Hijacking Communication Satellite& Broadcasting Station
Fake News through SNS
Desalination Plant
Self Driving System & Automatic
Control System Transportation System
Air Traffic Control & Immigration
System Financial Market Crisis
Air Conditioning
Plant Control Mechanisms
2020 Dubai ExpoCanceled
Second Dubai Shock
Political & Social Demonstrations
Volatilization ofOil & Gas Prices
Economic Crisis in Big Cities
Gas & Crude Oil Export
Suspension
Political System Destabilized
Riot & Returning of Foreign Workers
2022 Qatar World Cup Cancelled
Int’l Disputes
Hub AirportCollision & Stop of
Tankers
Hub Port
Decline of Tourists
Cyber Incidents Chain and Expansionof Damages
Implications
Free Trade Zone
Instability of Internet & Communication Network
Gulf Cyber Shock Scenarios
L’Aquila G8 Summit, 2009
Geopolitical risk linkage: Libya to North Korea
16
Shares in long-distance gas trade, 2017
Pipeline
China – the emerging giant of gas demand
Developing countries in Asia –led by China – dominate the rise
in long-distance gas trade;
Net gas imports in 2017
-100
0
100
200
300
400
ChinaEuropean Union
Japan & Korea
India Southeast Asia
bcmNet gas imports in 2040
LNG
Shares in long-distance gas trade, 2040
more than 80% of the growth to 2040 comes in the
form of LNGWEO2018
17
American Gas Moves to Asia
WEO2017
The concentration of import growth in Asia continues to redraw the inter-regional gas trade map, underpinning a fundamental shift in trade flows away from the Atlantic basin to the Asia-Pacific region
19
WEO2016
20
East & South China Sea =LNG Sea Lane
21
USDOD China Report 2018
China’s Oil and Gas Import Transit Routes: Pipeline and Sea Lane Defense
One Belt and One Road (一帯一路)
-China's interest in ensuring reliable, cost-effective, and diverse energy sources to support its economic growth drive its overseas energy investments. -China hopes to diversify energy suppliers and transport options.
Djibouti and Hambantota
22
23
China’s BRI in Indian Ocean; String of Pearls Strategy
24
PLA Navy focus moves from ‘offshore waters defense' to the combination of “offshore waters defense” with ‘open seas protection‘
25
Recommendation 18: Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. should enhance sea lane defense capabilities in the Indian Ocean. Each nation will need to make judgments about its capabilities based on its interests. For instance, naval fleets will need to evolve to allow increasingly long-range operations. This may require consideration in Japan of new options such as nuclear propulsion for its submarines.
Nobuo Tanaka, Chairman, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation (Chair)Rory Medcalf, Head of College, National Security College, ANUKanwal Sibal, Member, VIF Advisory Council, VIFDennis Blair, Chairman, Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA
Policy Recommendations – Towards Construction of a Stable Security Environment and Peaceful Development in the Indian Ocean Region –
26
Mid-Term Oil & Gas Market 2010, IEA
Russian Gas Pipeline to the East + LNG through Arctic
27
28
Russia’s interest in Arctic sea lanes
Putin inaugurated the new Icebraker LNG tanker, “Christophe De Margerie” .
Nuclear Icebraker, ”Arktika”
28
China to build "Polar Silk Road" in Arctic: whitepaper
29
30
Blue Print for North East Asia Gas & Pipeline Infrastructure:Dr. Hirata’s Concept
Geopolitics of the Shale Revolution: Strategic Positioning of Oil/Gas exporters and importers
IEA WEO2017 basis31
Solar PV forges ahead in the global power mix
Global average annual net capacity additions by type
China, India & the US lead the charge for solar PV, while the EU is a frontrunner for onshore & offshore wind: rising shares of solar & wind require more flexibility to match power demand & supply
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Coal
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 GW
2010-2016
2017-2040
Solar PV Wind
Solar PV Wind Other
Other
WEO2017
32
The future is electrifyingElectricity generation by selected region
India adds the equivalent of today’s European Union to its electricity generation by 2040,
Middle East
2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000
Africa
Southeast Asia
European Union
India
United States
China
TWh
2016 Growth to 2040
Sources of global electricity demand growth
Industrial motors
Cooling
Large appliances
Connected & small
appliances
Electric vehicles
Other
while China adds the equivalent of today’s United States
WEO2017
33
Renewables will dominate power capacity additions
WEO2018
34
Cost of Solar PV and EV battery
WEO2017
35
All sources of flexibility needed
6
5
y2
1
Mobilise existing power system flexibility
4
3
Targeted investment in flexibility needed
Flexibility: the cornerstone of tomorrow’s power systems
Phases of integration with variable renewables share, 2017
Higher shares of variable renewables raise flexibility needs and call for reforms to deliver investment in power plants, grids & energy storage, and unlock demand-side response
Integration phase
Wind and solar PV share of generation
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
China
United States
Japan
China
United States
European Union
European Union
Germany
Germany
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
Phases of integration with variable renewables share, 2030
Japan WEO2018
36
WEO2017
Average Costs of Power Generation
37
Lack of Grid connectivity in Japan
Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, Electric Power System Council of Japan, The International Energy Agency
Tokyo
Hokkaido
Tohoku
HokurikuKansaiChugoku
Kyushu29GW
Shikoku12GW
Chubu 40GW
Okinawa2GW
Hydro
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Other
Power utility company
Generating company
In-house generation
--- 50 hz
60 hz <-------
38
Figure 13.23 China electricity generation mix by region and net electricity
The map presents data of provinces in China.This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
Net electricitytrade in 2040 (TWh)
Northwest
North Northeast
Central East
South
Electricitygeneration
500 TWh
CoalGasNuclearHydroWind
OtherSolar PV
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2040
2040
2040
2040
2040
2040
11
34
6
3
41
1
173
172
230
The Northwest and Northeast regions become the major exporters of electricity, supplying
a mix of renewables-based and fossil-fuelled generation to the East and Central regions
WEO2017
39
Chapter 13 | Outlook for China’s energy demand5
Figure 13.24 China hourly generation mix and electric
ity tra
de for th
e Northwest, N
orth, East a
nd Central regions in
2030
100
200
300
G W
Trade
Wind
SolarPV
Gasandoil
Otherren
ewables
Hydro
Coal
Nuclear
North
west
Day1
Day2
Day3
Day4
Day5
100
200
300
G W
North
Day1
Day2
Day3
Day4
Day5
100
200
300
G W
East
Day1
Day2
Day3
Day4
Day5
Dem
and
100
200
300
G W
Central
Day1
Day2
Day3
Day4
Day5
Expanded tra
nsmissio
n capabilitie
s provide for electric
ity supply and demand to be balanced across C
hina
A , 2 0 1 7
WEO2017
Balancing Power Supply and Demand in China
40
Global Energy Interconnection/ GEIDCO by State Grid CC
41
41
BhutanBhutan
Gobi DesertGobi Desert
ShanghaiShanghai
TaipeiTaipei
DelhiDelhi
MumbaiMumbai
SingaporeSingapore
VladivostokVladivostok
ChengduChengdu
BeijingBeijing SeoulSeoul
ManilaManila
DaccaDacca
AsiaSuper Grid
Total 36,000km
Phase 3
BangkokBangkok
Hong KongHong Kong
Kuala LumpurKuala Lumpur
TokyoTokyo
Demand Leveling
(Time Zone & Climate Difference)
Stable Supply
(through regional interdependence)
Fair Electricity Price
Presentation by Mr. Masayoshi SON42
“Energy for Peace in Asia” New Vision?
Asia Super Ring
Masayoshi SON’s proposal
Russia Route
Mongolia China Korea route
Japan
43
State Grid
Kepco
Rosetti
Softbank
Power Grid Connection in Europe:Collective Energy Security and Sustainability
Physical energy flows between European countries, 2008 (GWh)
Source: ENTSO-E
44
Energy self-sufficiency* by fuel in 2013
Source: Energy Data Center, IEA.
* Self-sufficiency =domestic production /total primary energy supply
Note: Does not include fuels not in the fossil fuels, renewables and nuclear categories.
Collective Energy Security and Sustainabilityby Diversity, Connectivity and Nuclear
10%
14%
14%
20%
1%
44%
13%
24%
25%
18%
8%
19%
35%
19%
10%
1%
10%
1%
1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
IEA
EU28
KoreaLuxembourg
Belgium
JapanFrance
SpainSlovak Republic
Ireland
Switzerland
Italy
Portugal
Hungary
Turkey
GermanyFinland
Austria
Sweden
GreeceCzech Republic
United KingdomPoland
India
United States
Netherlands
ChinaNew Zealand
Fossil fuels
Renewables
Nuclear
22%
55%
104%
12%
9%
27%
14%
10%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
EU28
IEA
ASEAN Fossil fuels
RenewablesNuclear
45
A new strategy for energy & sustainable development
Sustainable Development
Scenario
The Sustainable Development Scenario reduces CO2 emissions in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, while also tackling air pollution and achieving universal energy access. It
needs doubling the level of energy efficiency, 900 million EVs, 3250 GW of solar PVs.
10
20
30
40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
GtC
O2
New Policies Scenario
Sustainable Development Scenario
Global CO2 emissions by scenario
WEO2017
46
RE100 Corporations156 RE100 companies have made a commitment to go '100% renewable'.
Finance(40): Swiss Re Group, alstria, Amalgamated Bank, Aviva, AXA, Bank of America, Bankia, BBVA, British Land, CaixaBank, Canary Wharf Group, Capital One, Citi, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, Danske Bank, DBS Bank Ltd, DNB, Equinix, Fifth Third Bancorp, Fuyo General Lease Co., Ltd., Goldman Sachs, Helvetia, HSBC, ING Group, Iron Mountain Incorporated, Johnan Shinkin Bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Jupiter Asset Management, Land Securities, Mace, Morgan Stanley, Nordea, Prudential plc, RBS group, Schroders, TD Bank, UBS, VoyaFinancial, Wells FargoDurable Goods and Services (32):IKEA Group, AEON Co., Ltd, BMW, Burberry, Coop Sapporo, Crown Estate, Daiwa House Group, Decathlon, Dentsu Aegis Network, Etsy, FIA Formula E, General Motors, Gürmen Group, H&M, Interface, Kingspan, LEGO Group, Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India, Marks & Spencer, Marui Group, Nike, Inc., Pearson, PVH, Sekisui House, Signify, Sky, Starbucks, Tata Motors Limited, Vail Resorts, VF Corporation, Watami Co., Ltd., YOOX GroupNon-Durables and Services (24): Anheuser-Busch InBev, Califia Farms, Carlsberg Group, Clif Bar & Company, Coca-Cola Enterprises, Colruyt Group, Danone, Diageo, Estée Lauder Companies, Grupo Bimbo, Hatsun Agro Products Ltd, International Flavors and Fragrances Inc., Kellogg, L'OCCITANE Group, Mars, Incorporated, Nestle, Organic Valley, Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser (RB), TCI Co., Ltd, Tesco, TRIDL, Unilever, WalmartTechnology(21): Adobe, Apple, Autodesk, eBay, Facebook, Fujitsu, Google, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, HP, Inc., Infosys, Lyft, Microsoft, Rackspace, RICOH Company, Ltd., Salesforce, SAP, Sony Corporation , Visa, VMWare, WeWork, WorkdayOther Services(17) ASKUL Corporation, Bloomberg, BROAD Group, ENVIPRO HOLDINGS Inc., Gatwick Airport Limited, Heathrow Airport, IHS Markit, La Poste, McKinsey & Company, PwC, RELX Group, SAVE S.p.A Group, Schneider Electric, SGS, Steelcase, Swiss Post, VaisalaMaterial(8): AkzoNobel, Corbion, Dalmia Cement, Elion Resources Group, Elopak, Givaudan, Royal DSM, Tetra
PakTelecom Services(6): BT Group, KPN, Proximus, Telefonica S.A., T-Mobile US, Inc., Vodafone GroupHealth care(5): AstraZeneca, Biogen, Johnson & Johnson, Novo Nordisk, Royal PhilipsEnergy(1): Vestas
47
48
No Peak Demand happens in New Policies Scenario but in Sustainable Development Scenario
Saudi Aramco is worrying about Peak Demand of Oil by EV.
The Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stones.
WEO2017
48
PEACEFUL NUCLEAR POWER
49
History of Construction of Nuclear Reactors
WEO2014
50
Nuclear Power development has been disturbed by major accidents.
For such an alliance to exist, the United States and Japan will need to come to it from the perspective, and as the embodiment, of tier-one nations. In our view, tier-one nations have significant economic weight, capable military forces, global vision, and demonstrated leadership on international concerns. Although there are areas in which the United States can better support the alliance, we have no doubt of the United States’ continuing tier-one status. For Japan, however, there is a decision to be made. Does Japan desire to continue to be a tier-one nation, or is she content to drift into tier-two status?
Energy Security(Nuclear) Understandably, the Fukushima nuclear disaster dealt a major setback to nuclear power. The setback reverberated not only throughout Japan, but also around the world. Japan has made tremendous progress in boosting energy efficiency and is a world leader in energy research and development. While the people of Japan have demonstrated remarkable national unity in reducing energy consumption and setting the world’s highest standards for energy efficiency, a lack of nuclear energy in the near term will have serious repercussions for Japan.
U.S.-Japan Alliance Report by Nye & Armitage (2012/8/10)
51
Does Japan desire to continue to be a tier-one nation, or is she content to drift into tier-two status?
2018 World Nuclear Industry Status Report
52
Plutonium in the World
53世界の分離プルトニウム保有量(長崎大学核兵器廃絶研究センターデータ)
France71.4
Military Non MilitaryRussia185.5
UK113.5
US87.8
India6.98
China2.94
Israel0.90
Pakistan0.28
DPRK0.04
Japan47.0
Germany0.5
Other1.8
2016 Tons
Time for Safer, Proliferation resistant and Easier Waste Management Paradigm:
Integral Fast Reactor and Pyroprocessing
IFR has features as Inexhaustible Energy Supply ,Inherent Passive Safety ,Long-term Waste Management Solution , Proliferation-Resistance , Economic Fuel Cycle Closure.High level waste reduces radioactivity in 300 years while LWR spent fuel takes 100,000 years.
Dr. YOON IL CHANGArgonne National Laboratory
54
Legend of Admiral Rickover: Success of LWR for nuclear submarine has crowded out Fast Reactors
55
Statement by Dr. Takashi NAGAI after Nagasaki atomic
bomb. "How to turn the devil to the fortune."
56
Dr. Takashi Nagai, a Professor at Nagasaki University in 1945 when the atomic bomb was dropped, exemplifies the resilience, courage and believe in science of the Japanese people. Despite having a severed temporal artery as a result of the bomb, he went to help the victims even before going home. Once he got home, he found his house destroyed and his wife dead. He spent weeks in the hospital where he nearly died from his injuries. But just months after the atom bomb dropped, he said:
“Everything was finished. Our mother land was defeated. Our university had collapsed and classrooms were reduced to ashes. We, one by one, were wounded and fell. The houses we lived in were burned down, the clothes we wore were blown up, and our families were either dead or injured. What are we going to say? We only wish to never repeat this tragedy with the human race. We should utilize the principle of the atomic bomb. Go forward in the research of atomic energy contributing to the progress of civilization. Devil will then be transformed to fortune.( Wazawai tenjite Fukutonasu) The world civilization will change with the utilization of atomic energy. If a new and fortunate world can be made, the souls of so many victims will rest in peace.”