Environmental Decisions. Decisions based on Risk

Environmental Decisions

Decisions based on Risk

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To buy or not to buy an umbrella?

• You need to attend a meeting in impeccable conditions. Probability of raining is 30% and you need to cross a long uncovered park to get to the meeting. At the park entrance they sell umbrellas for $10 and the end of the park a store sells full clothing starting at $200

To buy or not to buy an umbrella?a1 buy umbrellaa2 do nothing

R(ai) L(ai|w1) P(w1) L(ai|w2) P(w2)

a1 10 10 0.7 10 0.3a2 60 0 0.7 200 0.3

Buying a Generator

• You have a business in a city where blackouts happen no more than once in a year with probability of 1%. Every time there is a blackout you loose $10,000. Should you pay $500 a month for backup power service?

a1 buy service

a2 do nothing


a1 6,000 6,000 0.99 6,000 0.01a2 100 0 0.99 10,000 0.01

To buy or not to buy an insurance

• You live in a country that may be hit by hurricanes. The cost of insurance is $ 3,000, it will cover all repairs but has a deductible of $4,000. It is Friday and in 5 minutes everybody will retire until Monday for the weekend. There is a forecast that with probability of 5% a hurricane will strike your city. Should you protect your $500,000?

a1 buy insurance

a2 do nothing


a1 3,200 3,000 0.95 7,000 0.05

a2 25,000 0 0.95 500,000 0.05

Pay great attention to this video

What should you, as future engineers, do?

What should you, as future engineers, do?

• Help to solve the problem• Help to avoid that the problem happens again

Humanity, Nature, and Technology: The Hannover Principles

• The City of Hannover, Germany, was designated as the site of the world exposition in the year 2000.

• The city decided to directly address the difficult issue of imagining and encouraging a sustainable future.

THE HANNOVER PRINCIPLES1. Insist on rights of humanity and nature to co-exist in a healthy,

supportive, diverse and sustainable condition.2. Recognize interdependence. The elements of human design interact with

and depend upon the natural world, with broad and diverse implications at every scale. Expand design considerations to recognizing even distant effects.

3. Respect relationships between spirit and matter. Consider all aspects of human settlement including community, dwelling, industry and trade in terms of existing and evolving connections between spiritual and material consciousness.

4. Accept responsibility for the consequences of design decisions upon human well-being, the viability of natural systems and their right to co-exist.

5. Create safe objects of long-term value. Do not burden future generations with requirements for maintenance or vigilant administration of potential danger due to the careless creation of products, processes or standards.

THE HANNOVER PRINCIPLES6. Eliminate the concept of waste. Evaluate and optimize the full life-cycle

of products and processes, to approach the state of natural systems. in which there is no waste.

7. Rely on natural energy flows. Human designs should, like the living world, derive their creative forces from perpetual solar income. Incorporate this energy efficiently and safely for responsible use.

8. Understand the limitations of design. No human creation lasts forever and design does not solve all problems. Those who create and plan should practice humility in the face of nature. Treat nature as a model and mentor, not as an inconvenience to be evaded or controlled.

9. Seek constant improvement by the sharing of knowledge. Encourage direct and open communication between colleagues, patrons, manufacturers and users to link long term sustainable considerations with ethical responsibility, and re-establish the integral relationship between natural processes and human activity.

U.S. Emits Nearly Half World's Automotive Carbon Dioxide

• WASHINGTON, DC, June 28, 2006 (ENS) - The United States has five percent of the world's population and 30 percent of the world's automobiles, but the country contributes 45 percent of the world's automotive emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, according to a report released today by the advocacy group Environmental Defense.

Kilogram-force• Weight is usually expressed in kilogram-force or pound-force.• 1 kg-force = force of gravity on 1 kg of mass. • 1 lb-force = force of gravity on 1 lb of mass.

– These are not SI units but they have the advantage that the magnitude of the weight is identical to the magnitude of the mass.

• 1 kg-force = 9.8 Newtons• When you say I weight 200 lbs you are indirectly saying: I

have a mass of 200 lbs and the force of gravity on me is 890 N.

• In the next examples all weights are expressed either in in lb-force or in kg-force and in order to calculate rolling resistance they will need to be converted to Newtons

One passenger 60 mph

lbs kg 1 Gal GasolineM 2,500.00 984.25 132,000,000.00 MJCar 2,300.00 Useful 15%Occupants 200.00 19,800,000

Asphalt F= 561.55Crr 0.03 W = Fd = 21,684,922.58

m/(s^2)g 9.80

ft^2 m^2CdA 6.79 0.63

rho kg/m^31.20

milesph kmph mpsv 60.00 96.54 26.82

miles km md 24.00 38.62 38,616.00

This is what you spend when you break1/2Mv^2 353,904.34

speedv

densityairrho

areafrontalA

tcoefficiendragC

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Car weight reduced 10 times

lbs kg 1 Gal GasolineM 430.00 169.29 132,000,000.00 MJCar 230.00 Useful 15%Occupants 200.00 19,800,000

Asphalt F= 321.95Crr 0.03 W = Fd = 12,432,589.79

m/(s^2)g 9.80

ft^2 m^2CdA 6.79 0.63

rho kg/m^31.20


miles km md 24.00 38.62 38,616.00


speedv

densityairrho

areafrontalA

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massM


forceF

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Speed Reduced to 40 mph

lbs kg 1 Gal GasolineM 2,500.00 984.25 132,000,000.00 MJCar 2,300.00 Useful 15%Occupants 200.00 19,800,000

Asphalt F= 410.34Crr 0.03 W = Fd = 15,845,696.12

m/(s^2)g 9.80

ft^2 m^2CdA 6.79 0.63

rho kg/m^31.20


miles km md 24.00 38.62 38,616.00


speedv

densityairrho

areafrontalA

tcoefficiendragC


massM


forceF

vrhoACgMCF

d

rr

drr

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Carpool (4 passengers)

lbs kg 1 Gal GasolineM 3,100.00 1,220.47 132,000,000.00 MJCar 2,300.00 Useful 15%Occupants 800.00 19,800,000

Asphalt F= 631.00Crr 0.03 W = Fd = 24,366,758.17

m/(s^2)g 9.80

ft^2 m^2CdA 6.79 0.63

rho kg/m^31.20


miles km md 24.00 38.62 38,616.00


speedv

densityairrho

areafrontalA

tcoefficiendragC


massM


forceF

vrhoACgMCF

d

rr

drr

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Environmental Decisions. Decisions based on Risk