Estimation of GSR for Assuit Confernce

7/29/2019 Estimation of GSR for Assuit Confernce

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Estimation of Global Solar Radiation (GSR)over Egypt

جلا قلا رتؤممةدجلاو ةيسعلا نطلبىبر

Eng. Taha Abdo

Mohamed

M.Sc cand idate Ain Shams Univerc i ty

Abbass ia, Cairo 11517,

Egypt

[email protected]

A. Prof. Dr. Mohamed EL-

Shimy

Electr ical Power and Machin es Dept.Ain Shams Univerc i ty

Abbassia, Cairo 11517, Egypt

[email protected]

مؤمل اقت اية وادة بطن اعبى مكز دراسث ال

جمعت أسط

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Main objective

Determine the best mathematical modelsfor estimating the GSR on a horizontal

surface over Egypt.

Evaluation most of the available modelsfor a specific set of sites, 6 sites, inEgypt.

● Egypt is divided into a set of regions eachone described by the best found GSR model.

● The determined regions and its models arebased on the results of 1st stage

● The regional best model determined basedon the best model for the sites, 4 sites,

contained in a specific region

1st

stage

2nd

stage

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Methodology

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NASA website

Monthly average daily GSR on a horizontal surface , kW/m²/day

Monthly average daily extraterrestrial radiation, kW/m²/day

Monthly average daily hours of bright sunshine, hour

Monthly average day length, hour

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Monthly averaged maximum and minimum air temperature, °C

Monthly averaged wind speed at 50 m above earth surface, m/sec Monthly averaged humidity ratio at10 meters above earth surface,%

Monthly averaged relative humidity, %

Meteorological observations parameters

Solar Atlas of Egypt

Such as



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Evaluation criteria

correlation coefficient ()

- A measure of the strength of linear dependence between two

variables, giving a value between +1 and −1 inclusive.

Sum of Squared Errors (SSE )

-A measure of the deviations of the actual values from the predicted

values, within the sample used for estimation



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Consequently,

A multi-objective criterion is used to determine the bestmodel for a specific location.

The objectives are maximization of the correlation () and

minimization of the SSE between observed & estimatedvalues of GSR in a specific site.

The best model is characterized by a higher () and a

lower SSE in comparison between the rest of the models.



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Results 1 stage

Table 1:The best models for a subset of six sites



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Figure 2: The best models for a subset of six sites



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Best models

Kilic & Ozturk model (K&O)

GOB(1) model



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Results 2 stage

Table 2:The best models for a subset of four sites



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Figure 3: The best models for a subset of F64R

sites



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Conclusion The whole lands of Egypt are divided into two regions

from the GSR estimation perspective



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Recommendations

With available limited number of ground stations in Egypt

for measuring the GSR, it is possible with given models toestimate the GSR for any location in Egypt.

This work is beneficial for the design of all solar-energy

related projects such as :-

• solar based power plants

• solar based irrigation water pumping systems

• solar based water desalination systems.

The outcomes of this work are valuable for solar resource

assessment and other meteorological studies.

Documents

Estimation of GSR for Assuit Confernce