Upload
vinaya
View
36
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Evaluation of GPM Precipitation Estimates for Land Data Assimilation Applications. Mississippi State University Geosystems Research Institute. GPM Evaluation Team & Collaborators. MSU Team Robert Moorhead Valentine Anantharaj Georgy Mostovoy Yangrong Ling QiQi Lu - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
1RPC Review (03/02/09)
Evaluation of GPM Precipitation Estimates for Land Data Assimilation Applications
Mississippi State University Geosystems Research Institute
2RPC Review (03/02/09)
GPM Evaluation Team & Collaborators• MSU Team
– Robert Moorhead– Valentine Anantharaj– Georgy Mostovoy– Yangrong Ling– QiQi Lu– Graduate students (2)
• External Collaborators– Paul Houser (GMU CREW)– Joe Turk (Naval Research Laboratories & JPL)
• Partner Agencies– Garry Schaeffer (USDA NRCS)– Steve Hunter (United States Bureau of Reclamation)
3RPC Review (03/02/09)
GPM Evaluations: Purpose and Activities
4RPC Review (03/02/09)
Purpose of RPC GPM Experiments
• Evaluate usefulness of GPM data for decision support in water resources management and other cross-cutting applications.
Test, characterize, and evaluate GPM data in conjunction with other precipitation products in the context of land surface modeling for earth science applications.
5RPC Review (03/02/09)
Experimental Objectives of GPM Evaluation
1. Verify space-based precipitation estimation using ground-based radar and rain gauge data for different cases representing different synoptic condition and surface types
2. Validate precipitation forcing impacts using land surface model simulations.
3. Evaluate potential impacts on water resources applications.
6RPC Review (03/02/09)
Satellite Omission Experiments
NASA RPC Review (4/14/08) 7
Motivation• Precipitation is the main forcing for hydrological and land surface
models• Precipitation events that result in flooding often evolve over short
space and time scales, where properly instrumented surface networks may not be available
• Satellite data often provides the only source of timely precipitation data over many of the world’s remote watersheds
• Hydrological modeling is a key focus of the future NASA/JAXA Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) in 2013; however
• The members of the GPM constellation will change owing to launch schedules before and during the mission; therefore
• How can we leverage today’s existing environmental satellite constellation to examine the impact of (existing and future) satellites and orbits on hydrological applications?
8RPC Review (03/02/09)
Current(10-Satellite)LEO Satellite Constellation
Revisit TimeColor Codes:SSMIDMSP F-13/14/15AMSR-EAquaAMSU-BNOAA-15/16/17TMITRMMCoriolisWindsatSSMISF-16
Revisit Scale: White= 0 hours Black= 6+ hours (shaded boxes represent 15-minute coverage)
9RPC Review (03/02/09)
Observing Times for an Ideal Precipitation-Based Low-Earth Orbiting Satellite Observing Constellation
Orbits are equally spaced with a 1.5 to 3-hour revisit timeAscending Descending
0
12
18 6
Pattern progresses from day to day
10RPC Review (03/02/09)
What We Have Today: DMSP and NOAA Satellites
NOAA Satellites as of Late 2006Ascending Descending
0
6
12
18NOAA-15
NOAA-16
NOAA-18
NOAA-17
DMSP Satellites as of Late 2006Ascending Descending
0
6
12
18F-14
F-13
F-16
F-15
“Building Blocks” for HRPPs: NOAA/DMSP SatellitesLate Summer 2008
Midnight
Noon
6 PM 6 AM
TRMM 28-day repeat at equator
F13
F14
F15F16
F17NOAA-15NOAA-16
NOAA-17
NOAA-18 METOP-AAqua
Coriolis
FY-3A (launched 29 May 2008)
AscendingDescending
F14 only direct-broadcast since 24 Aug 2008F18 launch date: 8 November 2008
NASA RPC Review (4/14/08) 12
Case 0: All satellites included (baseline)
Case 1: Omit all crosstrack soundersCase 2: Omit morning crosstrack soundersCase 3: Omit afternoon crosstrack sounders
Case 4: Omit TRMM TMI and PR and AquaCase 5: Omit TRMM PR onlyCase 6: Omit TRMM TMI onlyCase 7: Omit TRMM TMI and PR
Case 8: Omit all morning satellitesCase 9: Omit all afternoon satellites
Examining Impact of Satellite Type for the GPM EraSatellite Omission Experiments
NASA RPC Review (4/14/08) 13
Examining Impact of Satellite Type for the GPM EraSatellite Omission Experiments: Baseline
24-hour accumulations ending 2007/06/29 12Z 12-hour accumulations ending 2007/06/29 12Z
6-hour accumulations ending 2007/06/29 12Z 3-hour accumulations ending 2007/06/29 12Z
ALL Satellites CaseNOAA 15/16/17/18 (crosstrack)METOP-A (crosstrack)DMSP F-13/14/16/17 (conical)Aqua (conical)Coriolis (conical, over water)TRMM TMI (conical), PR
Green box illustrates largest performance impact is the omission of the morning overpass crosstrack sounders (“No AM XT” and “No AM” configurations)
Not much difference amongst sat-omission runs for the NRL-Blend “adjustment-based” HRPP technique
Bias
Equitable ThreatScore
Probabilityof
Detection
FalseAlarmRate
NOGAPS NWP model
summer winter
Seasonal PerformanceEast of 100W Longitude (> 1 mm/day)
Seasonal PerformanceWest of 100W Longitude (> 1 mm/day)
“All Satellites” CaseNOAA 15/16/17/18 (crosstrack)METOP-A (crosstrack)DMSP F-13/14/16/17 (conical)Aqua (conical)Coriolis (conical, over water)TRMM TMI (conical), PR
Generally less skill in winter months over western US “high altitude” region
Larger bias and spread for both satellites and model, especially in summer months
Higher false alarm rate for satellite-estimated, especially in winter months
Bias
Equitable ThreatScore
Probabilityof
Detection
FalseAlarmRate
NOGAPS NWP model
summer winter
PrincipleUse land surface models (LSM) and other types of hydrological observations (other than raingauge) to examine the impact of these GPM proxy data upon streamflow, discharge, soil moisture and other runoff measurements
Using Land Surface Models for GPM Ground Validation
GPM Ground ValidationExperimental Setup
• Incorporate the NASA Land Information System (LIS) with the NOAH LSM to simulate land surface and hydrological states
• Examine performance impact of different GPM constellations (e.g, Gottschalk et. al, 2005)
The Arkansas River is the longest tributary in the Mississippi-Missouri system. From its source in Colorado, the river travels through Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma. There it is joined by the Canadian, Cimarron, Neosho-Grand, and Verdigris Rivers, crosses the state of Arkansas where it empties into the Mississippi River.
Arkansas-Red River Basins Arkansas
CanadianRed
Cimarron
The analysis domain below covers the south-central United States where there are several well-instrumented watersheds. The impact of precipitation in a LSM is dependent upon many physical factors, soil type, vegetation, etc. Soil moisture analysis at a given time is likely to be the cumulative result of precipitation that has fallen for weeks or months prior.
To accommodate this, the results are shown after 5 months of simulation time, valid at 18 UTC on 31 October 2007. Soil moisture simulations are performed with 0.1o latitude x 0.1o longitude resolution and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) forcing fields (except for precipitation) are used to run the Noah LSM.
Impact of GPM Precipitation Estimates Upon Land Surface Models
No Crosstrack Sounders No AM Crosstrack Sounders No PM Crosstrack Sounders
No TMI+PR+Aqua No AM Satellites No PM Satellites
Satellite Denial Experiments: Effect on LSM
Satellite Denial Experiments: Effect on LSMExample: Omit All Crosstrack Sounders
Soil moisture difference relative to the “all-satellites” configuration
Upper Layer(0-10 cm)
Deep Layer(0.4-1 m)
Valid at 18 UTC on 31 October 2007
Both the gauge-based verification analysis and the LSM satellite denial experiments indicate that the greatest impact to the “all satellites” GPM configuration appears when the crosstrack sounders and the morning crossing (LTAN near 1800) satellites are omitted.
The removal of the morning satellites likely has less to do with the specific local time-of-day observation than it does with the fact that the bulk of the current (2008) satellites such as DMSP, Coriolis and several NOAA have early morning crossing times.
While this example demonstrates only one time step, these LSM simulations are being extended to cover multi-year DJF and JJA seasonal analyses.
Conclusions and Future Efforts
21
Summary of Progress
• Completed Tasks– Synthesis of GPM-proxy data (based on NRL-blend algorithm)– Verification of precipitation products
• Manuscript in draft, to be submitted to an AMS journal– Satellite Omission Experiments
• Book chapter accepted (Springer Verlag)• Manuscript in final draft, to be submitted to IEEE-JSTARS
• Final Steps (in progress)– Evaluation against USBR application metrics (soil moisture and
evaporation)– Final evaluation (document and publish)
NASA RPC Review (3/2/09)
Note: “verification” refers specifically to the satellite precipitation verification approach as used by the International Precipitation Working Group which is different from the systems engineering verification process defined by ASP.
22RPC Review (03/02/09)
Contact Information
Valentine Anantharaj<[email protected]>
Tel: (662)325-5135