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An Organization-based Approach to Explaining Current Trends in the Middle East and North Africa Circa March 2011. Evidence from Research on Ethno-political Organizations. Minorities at Risk Organizational Behavior – Middle East. Conditions Conducive to Ethnic Terrorism. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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An Organization-based Approach to Explaining Current Trends in the Middle East and North Africa Circa March 2011
Evidence from Research on Ethno-political Organizations
Minorities at Risk Organizational Behavior – Middle East
Conditions Conducive to Ethnic Terrorism
• Organizations professing a democratic ideology are significantly less likely engage in terrorism
• Organizations with the following characteristics are more likely to engage in terrorism:– Separatism– Rhetoric justifying violence– Foreign Support– State Repression
• Organizations that do not have a democratic ideology and have all the factors above have an 89% likelihood of engaging in terrorism
AFOSR Evaluation Meeting - Oct 20, 2008
4
MAR and MAROB
Minority at Risk group
MAROB organizations
Kurds in Iraq Kurdistan Democratic Party, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Kurdish Revolutionary Hezbollah, etc.
Palestinians in Occupied Territories
HAMAS, Fatah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, etc.
Shia in Lebanon
Hezbollah, Amal
AFOSR Evaluation Meeting - Oct 20, 2008
5
Annual MAROB Data
Ethno-political Organization
Organizational CharacteristicsType of LeadershipIdeologyGrievances
Organization-State RelationsDoes state repress organization?Has state reached agreement with organization?
External SupportDiaspora Foreign State NGOIGO
Organizational BehaviorNonviolent Behavior
(Electoral politics, protests)
Violence (Violent rhetoric, Targets, Location, violent repertoire)
Involvement in Criminal Networks
Data Sources International MediaGov’t and NGO reports Academic studies
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Figure 1: Shifts in Ideology of Ethnopolitical Organizations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
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1991
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1996
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1998
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2003
# o
f O
rgan
izat
ion
s Religious
Leftist
Rightist
Nationalist
Democratic
Total
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Figure 2: Strategies of Ethnopolitical Organizations 1980-2004
Strategies of Minorities At Risk Organizations 1980-2004
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
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45
50
year
1980
1981
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2004
# o
f O
rgan
izat
ion
s U
sin
g S
trat
egy
Violence
Protest
Electoral Politics
8
Figure 3: The Use of Terror by Organizations 1980-2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
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90
100
year
1980
1981
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1984
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1989
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2004
# o
f O
rgan
izat
ion
s
Terror
Total
