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Macedonian member of GALLUP International and Associate of Taylor Nelson Sofres B R I M A Williams and Associates Exit Poll Analysis Republic of Macedonia 2002 Parliamentary Elections Williams and Associates 342 Essex Street Salem, Massachusetts 01970 Phone (978) 744-3771 Fax (978) 744 7042

Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

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Page 1: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

Macedonian member of GALLUP International

and Associate of Taylor Nelson Sofres

B R I M A

Williams and Associates

Exit Poll Analysis Republic of Macedonia 2002 Parliamentary Elections

Williams and Associates 342 Essex Street

Salem, Massachusetts 01970

Phone (978) 744-3771 Fax (978) 744 7042

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Williams and Associates 342 Essex Street•Salem Massachusetts 01970

(978) 744-3771 Page 2

Monition

This analysis is provided sole ly for the use of the International Republican Institute, its employees, and consultants. Should the International Republican Institute release any portion of the analysis to any public medium, it is the responsibility of the International Republican Institute to insure that the release is in conformity with the analysis provided herein. Williams and Associates reserves the right to correct any public release of erroneous data or analysis by the release of the correct information or any such other methods as may be necessary.

Williams and Associates #1122 Macedonian Exit Poll

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Introduction and Notes on Analysis

This survey examines the results of 9321 voters in the 2002 Macedonian Parliamentary Elections. The sample was designed using, and interviews were distributed according to, official voter turnout statistics provided by the Macedonian State Election Commission. The interviews were conducted by intercept methodology using scientifically designed selection patterns at each of the 150 polling stations. All interviews were completed on September 15th 2002.

Some important points to remember when evaluating the results are:

Ø Trained, professional interviewers under the supervision of Williams and Associates and Brima staff conducted all interviews.

Ø All completed survey data was returned to Williams and Associates for processing and analysis.

Ø A copy of the full questionnaire with marginal results appears in Appendix A.

Ø Copies of demographic tables appear in Appendix B.

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Overview and Analysis

Before any discussion on the specific results of the exit poll, a word or two on the performance of the exit poll are in order. All in all the exit poll performed remarkable well. While we have as yet no "official" results of the election, comparisons of the preliminary results released by the State Election Commission show that the exit poll results, nationally and within electoral district, are very close to the actual returns from the election.

c For the major parties—the top seven likely to achieve parliamentary seats (Together for Macedonia, Together for You, DUI, DPA, PDP, NDP, and the Socialist Party)—so far the largest variance from the preliminary results is less than a 1% (0.9%) under vote for the largest vote getter and the second to the lowest recipient of votes (together for Macedonia and the NDP respectively).

c Overall the average variance among the major parties is 0.44%.

c While the variations are more significant within electoral district results, in no case (with the top seven parties at any rate) do the numbers vary by more than 9%—Together for Macedonia within District 5). On average the variation is between 2% and 3%.

Considering that on average exit polls conducted in the United States have a variance of 4% to 6% the performance of this exit poll is exceptionally good.

There are some elements of the survey that are somewhat deficient, but can be overlooked because of the polls performance and the general lack of "reliable" census and electoral history data. A review of the demographics shows that, with the exception of the question on gender, the demographics generally conform to the response rates achieved through regular polling efforts conducted during the course of the election cycle.

We have chosen therefore not to apply any differential weights to the raw data. The one concern we did have was response to the gender question, which had the second highest refusal (or missing data rate) among the demographics (12%). There was also a significant skew toward male respondents in the exit poll (64% to 34%). In the pre-election surveys, as in the United States we strive for a roughly equal division among gender. We cannot determine from the data whether the sample was indeed skewed toward males, or whether females were more likely than males to refuse to

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answer the gender question. However, since there appears to be a very small division between the males and females in levels of support for individual parties our decision was to leave the data in the form that it was received.

Structurally there were some very interesting results within the data set.

c As in the United States older voters vote early. As age increases so does the percentage of vote in the earliest collection period (7:00 to 10:00 AM) from 15% of the 18-24 year olds to 38% of those over 65.

• Nearly two-thirds of those 55 to 65, and over seven in ten (72%) of those over 65, had voted by 1:00 PM. Conversely majorities of those under 35 voted after 1:00.

c Those with the lowest and highest education levels tended to vote earlier than their counterparts.

c Together for Macedonia voters tended, more than Together for You voters, to vote earlier as did DPA supporters.

c While just over a majority of respondents claim to have a long standing attachment to the party for which they voted (51%), a significant minority of just over one-third (34%) made their decision within three months of the election.

• Just fewer than three in ten (28%) decided within the last 30 days.

• Over one-fifth (22%) decided within the final week.

• Seventeen percent decided on Election Day.

c When asked why they voted for this party, the most common response was that the respondents "trust" this party the most (46%). Trust was followed by historical support (15%), the party's leader (11%), the party's position on issues (9%), that this party is not as bad as the others (7%), and because of the candidate leading the list (5%).

c When asked what the new government's first priority should be, there was an almost even split between peace and stability and the economic issues presented on the list (40% to 39% respectively).

• Establishing peace and stability was the most often selected priority at 40% but was followed closely by the "pocket book" issues of economic development (16%), creating

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new jobs (12%), and reducing poverty (11%) that, when aggregated, tallies to 39%.

• The other significant responses were, implementing the framework agreement (5%), fighting corruption (3%), and improving inter-ethnic relations (2%).

c While our respondents in the exit poll are much more likely to think things have improved in Macedonia during the past four years than in our pre-election surveys, the results on whether things have improved or deteriorated since the last parliamentary election tend to closely resemble support by party.

• Twenty-six percent of the respondents believe that their living standard has gotten better while 40% believe it's gotten worse. The final 34% believe that their standard of living has remained the same.

• More than half of those who see a better living standard over the past four years are Together for You voters, while 63% of those who see deterioration in living standard are Together for Macedonia voters.

In terms of support for each of the major parties within electoral districts and other demographic segments we again note some interesting trends.

c Together for Macedonia while garnering 40% of the total vote in the exit poll performed best in Districts One and Four capturing 50% of the vote in both these districts.

• The exit poll also had them doing particularly well in District Six with 24% of the vote, however preliminary tallies from the SEC show support at only 16%.

• Together for Macedonia also showed strong voter cohesion with 86% of those claiming to have supported SDSM in 1998 voting for them in this election.

• Among those who claim "always to support the party" they voted for, 50% voted for Together for Macedonia.

• There was a slight gender differential in support with 40% of males and 44% of females supporting Together for Macedonia.

• Together for Macedonia performed best among respondents in the 45 to 64 year old age cohort, did best among

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respondents in the middle income groups between 12,000 and 24,000 Denar in monthly household income, and generally performed better among higher educated respondents, and those from Skopje.

c Together for You garnered 24% of the overall vote in the exit poll and had its strongest showing in Districts Three, Four, and Five, and its weakest showing in District One.

• It's clear from analysis of the data that Together for You had lost a significant amount of support from 1998. Only seven in ten VMRO-DPMNE supporters in 1998 voted for the coalition in this year's election, with nearly half of the defector's moving to Together for Macedonia coalition while the other half is distributed through other smaller parties.

• Support was highest among voters in the 25 to 34 year old age cohort, and among the highest monthly income category. Support also tended to be highest among those from the lowest educational attainment group and from settlements between 20,000 to 50,000 inhabitants.

c Socialist Party voters were most likely to vote at the end of the day, had their best showing in Electoral District Three, and were most likely to receive support from the lowest monthly household income group.

• The Socialist Party also shows significant declines from four years ago. Only 57% of 1998 SPM voters supported them in 2002. Nearly 20% of SPM voters in 1998 moved to the Together for Macedonia coalition in 2002.

Albanian voters generally tended, more than the Macedonian voters, to vote in the middle hours of the day mostly between 10:00 AM and 4:00 PM.

c They also tended to make up their minds much later in the election cycle.

• Twenty-two percent of Albanian respondents made their voting decision on Election Day compared to only 14% of Macedonians.

c They are more likely than ethnic Macedonians to use party leaders and "trust in the party" as cues for whom to vote.

• Twenty-four percent look to the party leaders compared to only 6% for ethnic Macedonians.

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c Ethnic Albanians are less likely to think things have deteriorated since 1998 and therefore are more likely than ethnic Macedonians to want the new government's priority to be on Framework Agreement implementation and less on job creation.

Analysis in support levels for the Albanian parties also reveals some interesting developments.

c DUI voters tend to be strongest among the youngest age cohort and within the 55 to 64 year old cohort.

c They tend to come from the lower end of the income scale (3001-6000 Denar), have a secondary education, are more rural than urban, and tend to live in settlements between 1001 and 5000 inhabitants.

c The DUI drew 46% of its vote from 1998 DPA voters and over a third (32%) from 1998 PDP voters.

c PDP voters follow a similar profile to DUI voters in that they garner support predominantly from rural areas, from settlements between 10,001 and 20,000 inhabitants, from the lowest monthly income category, and from the same age cohort as the DUI (55 to 64 year olds).

• The PDP retained only 28% of its 1998 vote losing over half of its support (56%) to the DUI.

c The DPA and the NDP are the more urban Albanian party options the DPA doing particularly well in settlements with over 50,000 inhabitants and in Skopje.

c The DPA does best among the youngest age cohort (18-24), and among males more than females, performs best among the highest income category, and among better educated Albanians

c The DPA also lost significant support among its 1998 voters. While managing to retain a better proportion of its 1998 vote than did the PDP (38% to 28%), a large proportion of 1998 voters (48%) defected to the DUI.

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Appendix A—The Questionnaire

FOR WHOM DID YOU VOTE:

1. Together for You .................................................................................. 24% 2. Together for Macedonia .......................................................................40 3. DUI .......................................................................................................13 4. DPA ........................................................................................................5 5. PDP .........................................................................................................2 6. SPM ........................................................................................................2 7. NDP ........................................................................................................1 8. DA...........................................................................................................3 9. DS ...........................................................................................................2 10. VMRO-Macadonia ...............................................................................2 11. Other .....................................................................................................6 When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates? 1 - Today................................................... 17% 2 - Within the last week ..............................5 3 - In the last month....................................6 4 - 1 to 3 months ago ..................................6 5 - More than 3 m ago...............................15 6 - Always vote for the same party...........51 Which of the following reasons best describes why you voted for that list? 1 - Trust this party the most...................... 46% 2 - Party leader ..........................................11 3 - Party's stance on the issues ....................9 4 - Candidate leading the list ......................5 5 - They are not as bad as other parties .....7 6 - I have always votes for this party.......15 7 - Other .....................................................5 8. - More than one answer ..........................2

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For which political party did you vote on parliamentary elections 1998? 1 VMRO–DPMNE ....................... 30% 2 SDSM .......................................34 3 DA................................................4 4 PDP ..............................................7 5 DPA ..........................................11 6 LDP ..............................................2 7 SPM .............................................1 8 OTHER ........................................2 9 Didn’t vote ...................................8 What should the new government's first priority be? 1. Establishing peace and stability....................... 40% 2. Economic development ...................................16 3. Creating new jobs ............................................12 4. Improving Inter-ethnic relations ........................2 5. Fighting Corruption...........................................3 6. Implementing the Framework Agreement .........5 7. Education...........................................................1 8. Reducing Poverty.............................................11 9. Other ..................................................................1 10. DK......................................................................1 Since 1998 is your living standard: 1 - Geting better ............................ 26% 2 - Stay the same ...........................34 3 - Geting worse............................40 Are you : 1 - Male ......................................... 64% 2 - Female .....................................36 How old are you : 1 - 18 - 24 years ........................... 20% 2 - 25 - 34 years ...........................24 3 - 35 - 44 years ...........................26 4 - 45 - 54 years ...........................17 5 - 55 - 64 years .............................9 6 - over 65 years ............................5

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Your monthly household income in total : 1 - 0 - 3,000 den. .......................... 18% 2 - 3,001 - 6,000 den. ...................18 3 - 6,001 - 12,000 den. .................28 4 - 12,001 - 18,000 den................17 5 - 18,001 - 24,000 den. .................9 6 - 24,000 den. .............................10 Nationality : 1 - Macedonian ............................. 71% 2 - Albanian ..................................21 3 - Turk ...........................................3 4 - Roma .........................................1 5 - Serb............................................2 6 - Other ..........................................2 Education : 1 - Up to elementary ...................... 6% 2 - Elementary...............................14 3 - Secondary................................50 4 - Higher......................................30 Electoral District 1. District One .............................. 18% 2. District Two .............................15 3. District Three ...........................17 4. District Four .............................17 5. District Five .............................16 6. District Six ...............................17

Urban/Rural 1. Urban ......................................... 50% 2. Rural ..........................................50

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Appendix B—Supplemental Demographic Tables

Wave Number

Subgroup Percentages

Wave Number

SUBGROUP

Time interval-

7:00 – 10:00

Time interval- 10:01 – 13:00

Time interval- 13:01 – 16:00

Time interval- 16:01 – 19:00

Overall Distribution 100.00% 100.0% 22.45% 32.04% 22.72% 22.79%

Time interval- 7:00 – 10:00 22.45% 22.5% 22.45%

Time interval- 10:01 – 13:00

32.04% 32.0% 32.04%

Time interval- 13:01 – 16:00 22.72% 22.7% 22.72%

Wave Number

Time interval- 16:01 – 19:00 22.79% 22.8% 22.79%

Electoral district No.1

100.00% 17.5% 27.23% 33.16% 16.55% 23.06%

Electoral district No.2 100.00% 15.3% 21.74% 35.23% 20.76% 22.27%

Electoral district No.3 100.00% 16.7% 20.30% 31.32% 24.25% 24.13%

Electoral district No.4

100.00% 17.4% 19.75% 27.55% 24.97% 27.73%

Electoral district No.5 100.00% 16.1% 20.37% 30.31% 24.97% 24.35%

Electoral district

Electoral district No.6 100.00% 17.0% 25.01% 34.94% 24.90% 15.15%

Together for You 100.00% 23.8% 19.49% 31.32% 23.04% 26.15%

Together for Macedonia 100.00% 39.6% 25.85% 33.68% 19.65% 20.82%

DUI 100.00% 12.5% 20.05% 34.25% 27.62% 18.07%

DPA 100.00% 4.8% 25.78% 33.56% 23.78% 16.89%

PDP 100.00% 2.3% 22.07% 28.64% 21.13% 28.17%

SPM 100.00% 2.0% 20.00% 31.05% 18.95% 30.00%

NDP 100.00% 1.4% 17.04% 33.33% 25.93% 23.70%

Recoded Vote

Other 100.00% 13.5% 20.08% 26.06% 27.01% 26.85%

Today 100.00% 16.9% 20.36% 32.89% 24.43% 22.33% When did you decide to vote for this list of Within the last

week 100.00% 5.1% 18.95% 27.79% 25.89% 27.37%

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In the last month 100.00% 5.7% 17.05% 34.28% 24.43% 24.24%

1 to 3 months ago

100.00% 5.9% 16.46% 26.58% 28.57% 28.39%

More than 3 months ago 100.00% 15.1% 21.36% 34.99% 20.72% 22.92%

Always vote for the same party 100.00% 50.8% 24.55% 32.01% 22.05% 21.39%

candidates

More than one answer

100.00% .4% 23.68% 28.95% 15.79% 31.58%

Trust this party the most 100.00% 46.1% 24.46% 33.97% 22.05% 19.52%

Party leader 100.00% 10.8% 17.07% 31.50% 27.03% 24.39%

Party's stance on the issues 100.00% 8.5% 21.45% 29.72% 23.00% 25.84%

Candidate leading the list 100.00% 4.7% 19.06% 31.29% 24.71% 24.94%

They are not as bad as other parties

100.00% 7.4% 17.90% 30.47% 24.70% 26.92%

I have always voted for this party

100.00% 15.4% 22.04% 32.17% 21.83% 23.97%

Other 100.00% 4.8% 17.58% 25.80% 23.97% 32.65%

Reasons that describe why you voted for that list

More than one answer 100.00% 2.2% 20.69% 31.03% 23.15% 25.12%

VMRO-DPMNE 100.00% 29.9% 19.65% 32.08% 23.07% 25.20%

SDSM 100.00% 33.7% 27.49% 32.44% 19.50% 20.57%

DA 100.00% 4.4% 20.85% 30.65% 21.86% 26.63%

PDP 100.00% 7.0% 18.30% 30.28% 28.08% 23.34%

DPA 100.00% 11.3% 21.91% 33.40% 25.22% 19.47%

LDP 100.00% 2.4% 21.86% 31.16% 27.44% 19.53%

SPM 100.00% 1.3% 21.55% 31.90% 21.55% 25.00%

Other 100.00% 1.9% 21.89% 34.91% 22.49% 20.71%

DK 100.00% 7.8% 13.88% 32.40% 29.59% 24.12%

Which political party in 1998 have you voted for?

More than one answer

100.00% .4% 19.44% 41.67% 8.33% 30.56%

Gotten better 100.00% 26.0% 21.58% 32.70% 23.62% 22.10%

Stayed the same 100.00% 34.1% 19.14% 30.28% 25.14% 25.44%

Gotten worse 100.00% 39.5% 24.36% 32.75% 21.49% 21.40%

Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or ...

More than one answer 100.00% .3% 23.33% 16.67% 36.67% 23.33%

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Establishing peace and stability

100.00% 39.9% 23.81% 33.98% 21.68% 20.53%

Economic development 100.00% 15.5% 22.29% 33.33% 22.15% 22.22%

Creating new jobs 100.00% 11.6% 18.22% 28.36% 26.76% 26.67%

Improving Inter-ethnic relations

100.00% 1.6% 23.81% 27.89% 23.81% 24.49%

Fighting Corruption 100.00% 3.3% 25.67% 27.00% 20.67% 26.67%

Implementing the Framework Agreement

100.00% 4.9% 18.71% 30.51% 31.85% 18.93%

Education 100.00% 1.4% 20.31% 32.03% 25.00% 22.66%

Reducing Poverty 100.00% 11.2% 19.44% 30.61% 23.81% 26.14%

Other 100.00% .7% 20.31% 18.75% 17.19% 43.75%

DK 100.00% 1.2% 17.27% 29.09% 31.82% 21.82%

What should the new government's first priority be?

More than one answer

100.00% 8.9% 23.13% 32.56% 20.56% 23.75%

Male 100.00% 63.7% 22.92% 31.60% 23.16% 22.31% Gender

Female 100.00% 36.3% 19.84% 32.53% 23.77% 23.87%

18 – 24 yrs. 100.00% 20.3% 14.83% 31.44% 29.71% 24.03%

25 – 34 yrs. 100.00% 23.5% 17.51% 32.49% 24.93% 25.07%

35 – 44 yrs. 100.00% 25.8% 22.61% 31.94% 20.95% 24.49%

45 – 54 yrs. 100.00% 16.7% 26.10% 32.10% 20.57% 21.23%

55 – 64 yrs. 100.00% 8.9% 31.40% 33.99% 18.35% 16.26%

65+ yrs. 100.00% 4.6% 38.04% 34.69% 14.11% 13.16%

Age

More than one answer 100.00% .2% 27.78% 22.22% 22.22% 27.78%

0 – 3,000 den. 100.00% 17.8% 20.70% 29.82% 25.29% 24.19%

3,001 – 6,000 den. 100.00% 17.7% 20.48% 30.20% 23.91% 25.41%

6,001 – 12,000 den.

100.00% 27.7% 21.40% 32.36% 23.39% 22.85%

12,001 – 18,000 den. 100.00% 17.2% 24.27% 32.80% 22.47% 20.47%

18,001 – 24,000 den. 100.00% 9.1% 23.39% 35.02% 21.49% 20.10%

Total monthly household income

24,000+ den. 100.00% 10.3% 23.05% 34.63% 20.60% 21.71%

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More than one answer 100.00% .2% 27.78% 27.78% 27.78% 16.67%

Macedonian 100.00% 71.2% 22.29% 31.94% 22.10% 23.66%

Albanian 100.00% 21.3% 21.27% 33.55% 26.14% 19.04%

Turk 100.00% 2.7% 14.63% 32.93% 23.58% 28.86%

Roma 100.00% 1.2% 13.39% 21.43% 36.61% 28.57%

Serb 100.00% 1.7% 32.90% 34.19% 18.71% 14.19%

Vlach 100.00% .6% 39.62% 24.53% 18.87% 16.98%

Other 100.00% 1.2% 14.55% 30.00% 26.36% 29.09%

Nationality

More than one answer 100.00% .2% 11.11% 11.11% 33.33% 44.44%

Up to elementary 100.00% 5.6% 23.56% 33.66% 23.37% 19.41%

Elementary 100.00% 14.0% 19.61% 30.55% 24.57% 25.28%

Secondary 100.00% 50.0% 20.37% 31.03% 23.63% 24.97%

Higher 100.00% 30.0% 25.17% 34.46% 21.87% 18.50%

Education

More than one answer 100.00% .4% 28.13% 21.88% 28.13% 21.88%

Rural 100.00% 50.3% 19.29% 29.99% 25.26% 25.46% RURAL/URBAN

Urban 100.00% 49.7% 25.66% 34.11% 20.14% 20.08%

up to 1000 inh 100.00% 16.4% 21.31% 30.16% 24.97% 23.57%

1001-3000 inh 100.00% 20.6% 17.54% 29.31% 25.78% 27.37%

3001-5000 inh 100.00% 10.1% 22.13% 31.52% 22.04% 24.31%

5001-10000 inh 100.00% 4.4% 18.49% 29.00% 29.45% 23.06%

10001-20000 inh 100.00% 1.2% 22.22% 33.33% 21.37% 23.08%

20001-50000 inh 100.00% 17.0% 21.97% 31.39% 25.03% 21.61%

50001-100000 inh

100.00% 7.0% 29.34% 34.90% 17.66% 18.09%

SETTLEMENT TYPE

Skopie 100.00% 23.3% 26.77% 36.10% 17.39% 19.74%

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Electoral District

Subgroup Percentages Electoral district

SUBGROUP

Electoral district

No.1

Electoral district

No.2

Electoral district

No.3

Electoral district

No.4

Electoral district

No.5

Electoral district No.6

Overall Distribution 100.00% 100.0

% 17.51% 15.26% 16.69% 17.41% 16.09% 17.02%

Time interval- 7:00 – 10:00

100.00% 22.5% 21.24% 14.78% 15.09% 15.32% 14.60% 18.97%

Time interval- 10:01 – 13:00

100.00% 32.0% 18.13% 16.79% 16.32% 14.98% 15.23% 18.56%

Time interval- 13:01 – 16:00

100.00% 22.7% 12.76% 13.95% 17.82% 19.14% 17.69% 18.65%

Wave Number

Time interval- 16:01 – 19:00

100.00% 22.8% 17.72% 14.91% 17.68% 21.18% 17.19% 11.32%

Electoral district No.1 17.51% 17.5% 17.51%

Electoral district No.2 15.26% 15.3% 15.26%

Electoral district No.3

16.69% 16.7% 16.69%

Electoral district No.4 17.41% 17.4% 17.41%

Electoral district No.5 16.09% 16.1% 16.09%

Electoral district

Electoral district No.6

17.02% 17.0% 17.02%

Together for You 100.00% 23.8% 11.88% 13.55% 23.36% 23.90% 22.37% 4.95%

Together for Macedonia 100.00% 39.6% 21.98% 14.54% 17.65% 22.17% 13.45% 10.21%

DUI 100.00% 12.5% 5.94% 16.52% 5.34% 13.94% 58.26%

DPA 100.00% 4.8% 25.33% 9.11% 2.44% 6.44% 56.67%

PDP 100.00% 2.3% 12.21% 53.05% 11.27% 23.47%

SPM 100.00% 2.0% 16.32% 16.84% 35.79% 12.63% 8.95% 9.47%

Recoded Vote

NDP 100.00% 1.4% 23.70% 42.22% 6.67% 27.41%

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Other 100.00% 13.5% 21.51% 12.19% 18.25% 21.67% 21.83% 4.54%

Today 100.00% 16.9% 18.64% 18.07% 14.12% 14.95% 9.41% 24.81%

Within the last week 100.00% 5.1% 20.42% 17.47% 11.58% 11.37% 12.00% 27.16%

In the last month

100.00% 5.7% 16.67% 16.86% 11.17% 11.36% 14.58% 29.36%

1 to 3 months ago 100.00% 5.9% 13.38% 12.48% 9.95% 8.32% 29.84% 26.04%

More than 3 months ago 100.00% 15.1% 21.36% 17.25% 14.27% 12.49% 12.49% 22.14%

Always vote for the same party

100.00% 50.8% 16.57% 14.24% 19.36% 21.10% 18.39% 10.35%

When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates

More than one answer

100.00% .4% 13.16% 34.21% 5.26% 23.68% 15.79% 7.89%

Trust this party the most

100.00% 46.1% 15.54% 15.14% 15.92% 17.59% 15.49% 20.31%

Party leader 100.00% 10.8% 14.63% 18.70% 10.16% 12.40% 17.58% 26.52%

Party's stance on the issues

100.00% 8.5% 23.39% 15.50% 15.89% 16.02% 15.25% 13.95%

Candidate leading the list

100.00% 4.7% 21.18% 21.65% 18.59% 12.47% 16.71% 9.41%

They are not as bad as other parties

100.00% 7.4% 23.82% 15.38% 13.61% 17.46% 14.35% 15.38%

I have always voted for this party

100.00% 15.4% 14.91% 14.41% 19.97% 20.04% 19.61% 11.06%

Other 100.00% 4.8% 27.85% 14.84% 18.26% 14.38% 13.01% 11.64%

Reasons that describe why you voted for that list

More than one answer 100.00% 2.2% 25.62% 14.29% 21.67% 18.72% 12.32% 7.39%

VMRO-DPMNE 100.00% 29.9% 14.90% 14.83% 22.48% 22.92% 20.05% 4.82%

SDSM 100.00% 33.7% 20.18% 14.18% 18.62% 21.94% 15.39% 9.68%

DA 100.00% 4.4% 34.42% 11.06% 10.80% 21.86% 15.83% 6.03%

PDP 100.00% 7.0% 10.57% 32.49% 3.15% .63% 20.19% 32.97%

DPA 100.00% 11.3% 13.15% 13.05% 2.53% .10% 14.22% 56.96%

LDP 100.00% 2.4% 29.30% 15.35% 19.53% 23.26% 6.05% 6.51%

Which political party in 1998 have you voted for?

SPM 100.00% 1.3% 13.79% 21.55% 36.21% 13.79% 9.48% 5.17%

Page 19: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

19

Other 100.00% 1.9% 28.40% 11.24% 13.61% 4.14% 7.69% 34.91%

DK 100.00% 7.8% 17.95% 18.51% 12.20% 11.78% 11.36% 28.19%

More than one answer 100.00% .4% 19.44% 13.89% 22.22% 22.22% 16.67% 5.56%

Gotten better

100.00% 26.0% 13.88% 14.49% 18.86% 19.55% 17.95% 15.27%

Stayed the same 100.00% 34.1% 16.54% 17.20% 12.95% 15.12% 16.94% 21.25%

Gotten worse 100.00% 39.5% 21.29% 15.42% 17.19% 16.31% 14.37% 15.42%

Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or ...

More than one answer

100.00% .3% 23.33% 16.67% 16.67% 10.00% 16.67% 16.67%

Establishing peace and stability

100.00% 39.9% 16.47% 15.71% 13.96% 17.40% 15.03% 21.43%

Economic development

100.00% 15.5% 22.78% 15.26% 14.91% 16.74% 15.89% 14.42%

Creating new jobs 100.00% 11.6% 14.37% 15.68% 21.69% 19.44% 19.53% 9.30%

Improving Inter-ethnic relations

100.00% 1.6% 21.09% 19.73% 9.52% 10.88% 15.65% 23.13%

Fighting Corruption 100.00% 3.3% 26.33% 14.33% 14.00% 14.00% 11.67% 19.67%

Implementing the Framework Agreement

100.00% 4.9% 4.23% 21.60% 7.57% 2.67% 31.40% 32.52%

Education 100.00% 1.4% 9.38% 14.06% 5.47% 9.38% 25.00% 36.72%

Reducing Poverty 100.00% 11.2% 14.38% 13.41% 25.17% 23.52% 14.58% 8.94%

Other 100.00% .7% 32.81% 9.38% 21.88% 10.94% 9.38% 15.63%

DK 100.00% 1.2% 21.82% 15.45% 18.18% 10.91% 17.27% 16.36%

What should the new government's first priority be?

More than one answer

100.00% 8.9% 25.70% 16.16% 16.77% 16.52% 12.12% 12.73%

Male 100.00% 63.7% 16.55% 15.95% 16.22% 16.10% 16.58% 18.60% Gender

Female 100.00% 36.3% 19.65% 14.99% 16.15% 17.63% 16.15% 15.43%

18 – 24 yrs. 100.00% 20.3% 17.05% 18.56% 14.61% 13.91% 13.74% 22.13%

25 – 34 yrs. 100.00% 23.5% 14.43% 14.38% 17.93% 17.41% 17.60% 18.25%

35 – 44 yrs. 100.00% 25.8% 14.99% 15.37% 17.16% 17.12% 17.67% 17.67%

Age

45 – 54 yrs. 100.00% 16.7% 23.67% 15.36% 15.16% 18.00% 14.50% 13.32%

Page 20: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

20

55 – 64 yrs. 100.00% 8.9% 25.62% 13.42% 13.67% 16.26% 16.63% 14.41%

65+ yrs. 100.00% 4.6% 18.90% 17.70% 15.07% 19.86% 16.99% 11.48%

More than one answer 100.00% .2% 22.22% 16.67% 22.22% 11.11% 27.78%

0 – 3,000 den.

100.00% 17.8% 9.25% 20.89% 15.72% 17.98% 14.94% 21.22%

3,001 – 6,000 den. 100.00% 17.7% 11.60% 12.05% 20.74% 19.70% 14.65% 21.26%

6,001 – 12,000 den. 100.00% 27.7% 14.42% 14.08% 16.58% 19.69% 18.03% 17.20%

12,001 – 18,000 den.

100.00% 17.2% 21.40% 16.33% 16.13% 15.13% 17.40% 13.60%

18,001 – 24,000 den. 100.00% 9.1% 29.20% 15.17% 13.02% 12.01% 18.58% 12.01%

24,000+ den. 100.00% 10.3% 37.19% 19.04% 10.58% 8.91% 12.47% 11.80%

Total monthly household income

More than one answer 100.00% .2% 16.67% 22.22% 22.22% 16.67% 22.22%

Macedonian 100.00% 71.2% 19.53% 14.56% 19.77% 22.84% 16.91% 6.39%

Albanian 100.00% 21.3% 11.73% 20.00% 3.91% .30% 14.42% 49.64%

Turk 100.00% 2.7% 3.66% 9.35% 6.50% 7.72% 10.98% 61.79%

Roma 100.00% 1.2% 5.36% 13.39% 49.11% 8.04% 5.36% 18.75%

Serb 100.00% 1.7% 40.65% 27.10% 14.19% 3.23% 5.81% 9.03%

Vlach 100.00% .6% 41.51% 7.55% 3.77% 7.55% 39.62%

Other 100.00% 1.2% 26.36% 11.82% 10.00% 5.45% 29.09% 17.27%

Nationality

More than one answer 100.00% .2% 22.22% 11.11% 27.78% 11.11% 11.11% 16.67%

Up to elementary 100.00% 5.6% 4.55% 11.49% 27.33% 20.20% 18.42% 18.02%

Elementary 100.00% 14.0% 8.66% 15.59% 15.98% 19.61% 15.12% 25.04%

Secondary 100.00% 50.0% 15.56% 16.75% 16.84% 17.46% 17.59% 15.80%

Higher 100.00% 30.0% 28.66% 15.41% 12.33% 13.21% 14.28% 16.11%

Education

More than one answer

100.00% .4% 12.50% 15.63% 15.63% 21.88% 12.50% 21.88%

Rural 100.00% 50.3% 4.89% 11.82% 20.97% 19.82% 17.24% 25.26% RURAL/URBAN

Urban 100.00% 49.7% 30.31% 18.76% 12.36% 14.97% 14.93% 8.67%

up to 1000 inh 100.00% 16.4% 3.60% 7.45% 19.84% 21.79% 31.38% 15.93%

SETTLEMENT TYPE

1001-3000 inh

100.00% 20.6% 4.36% 16.42% 12.26% 31.06% 8.87% 27.03%

Page 21: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

21

3001-5000 inh 100.00% 10.1% 9.58% 13.24% 47.23% 29.94%

5001-10000 inh 100.00% 4.4% 65.75% 34.25%

10001-20000 inh

100.00% 1.2% 67.52% 32.48%

20001-50000 inh 100.00% 17.0% 31.51% 33.04% 23.03% 12.43%

50001-100000 inh 100.00% 7.0% 14.67% 26.07% 33.33% 25.93%

Skopie 100.00% 23.3% 64.50% 35.50%

Page 22: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

22

Party / Coalition Preference

Subgroup Percentages Recoded Vote

SUBGROUP

Together for You

Together for

Macedonia

DUI DPA PDP SPM NDP Other

Overall Distribution 100.00% 100.0

% 23.84% 39.63% 12.47

% 4.83

% 2.29

% 2.04

% 1.45

% 13.46

%

Time interval- 7:00 – 10:00

100.00% 22.5

% 20.65% 45.54%

11.11%

5.53%

2.24%

1.81%

1.10%

12.02%

Time interval- 10:01 – 13:00

100.00% 32.0

% 23.35% 41.73% 13.35

% 5.07

% 2.05

% 1.98

% 1.51

% 10.97

%

Time interval- 13:01 – 16:00

100.00% 22.8

% 24.14% 34.23% 15.13

% 5.04

% 2.12

% 1.70

% 1.65

% 15.98

%

Wave Number

Time interval- 16:01 – 19:00

100.00% 22.8

% 27.38% 36.24%

9.90%

3.58%

2.83%

2.69%

1.51%

15.88%

Electoral district No.1

100.00% 17.4

% 16.32% 50.19% 4.26

% 7.05

% 1.61

% 1.92

% 1.98

% 16.69

%

Electoral district No.2

100.00% 15.3

% 21.11% 37.66% 13.46

% 2.88

% 7.92

% 2.24

% 4.00

% 10.73

%

Electoral district No.3

100.00% 16.5

% 33.68% 42.31% 4.02

% .71% 4.41

% 14.86

%

Electoral district No.4

100.00% 17.7

% 32.26% 49.76% 1.46

% 16.52

%

Electoral district No.5

100.00% 16.2

% 32.94% 32.94% 10.74

% 1.92

% 1.59

% 1.13

% .60% 18.16

%

Electoral district

Electoral district No.6

100.00% 17.0

% 6.96% 23.85% 42.82

% 16.13

% 3.16

% 1.14

% 2.34

% 3.61

%

Together for You 23.84%

23.8% 23.84%

Recoded Vote

Together for Macedonia

39.63% 39.6

% 39.63%

Page 23: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

23

DUI 12.47% 12.5

% 12.47

%

DPA 4.83% 4.8% 4.83

%

PDP 2.29% 2.3% 2.29

%

SPM 2.04% 2.0% 2.04

%

NDP 1.45% 1.4% 1.45

%

Other 13.46% 13.5

%

13.46%

Today 100.00% 16.4

% 19.12% 30.22% 18.28

% 7.33

% 3.63

% 2.44

% 2.30

% 16.68

%

Within the last week 100.00% 5.0% 16.17% 22.86%

18.24%

7.39%

2.77%

4.16%

3.00%

25.40%

In the last month

100.00% 5.8% 8.61% 19.37% 38.94

% 3.72

% 1.37

% 3.91

% 2.74

% 21.33

%

1 to 3 months ago

100.00% 6.0% 10.23% 16.48% 44.89

% 3.22

% 1.14

% 2.08

% 3.60

% 18.37

%

More than 3 months ago

100.00% 14.9

% 12.68% 39.58% 21.83

% 3.07

% .69% 2.31

% 3.07

% 16.76

%

Always vote for the same party

100.00% 51.6

% 31.77% 49.48% 1.29

% 4.99

% 2.70

% 1.31

% .27% 8.20

%

When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates

More than one answer

100.00% .3% 39.29% 32.14% 3.57

% 3.57

% 3.57

% 3.57

%

14.29%

Trust this party the most

100.00% 46.5

% 23.25% 41.63%

15.31%

4.63%

2.92%

1.56%

1.58%

9.13%

Party leader

100.00% 10.9

% 13.96% 20.30%

32.01%

12.67%

1.83%

1.72%

1.83%

15.68%

Party's stance on the issues

100.00% 8.5% 21.84% 43.13% 8.38

% 2.61

% 1.37

% 3.57

% 1.65

% 17.45

%

Candidate leading the list

100.00% 4.6% 22.17% 26.20% 9.07

% 4.03

% 2.77

% 2.27

% 5.79

% 27.71

%

Reasons that describe why you voted for that list

They are not as bad as other parties

100.00% 7.4% 20.19% 41.48% 8.52

% 2.05

% .63% 3.94

% 1.26

% 21.92

%

Page 24: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

24

I have always voted for this party

100.00% 15.6

% 32.73% 47.87% 1.12

% 5.39

% 3.37

% 1.05

% .30% 8.16

%

Other 100.00% 4.4% 20.69% 42.97% 5.04

% .80%

1.59%

2.12%

1.06%

25.73%

More than one answer

100.00% 2.1% 23.86% 41.48% 4.55

% 3.41

% .57% 6.25

% 19.89

%

VMRO-DPMNE 100.00%

29.7% 69.60% 12.40% .75% .31% .20%

1.69% .12%

14.95%

SDSM 100.00% 34.0

% 2.68% 86.40% .31% .07% .24% 1.13

% .10% 9.07

%

DA 100.00% 4.4% 7.39% 34.56% 3.17

% 1.06

%

1.85%

51.98

%

PDP 100.00% 7.1% 1.16% 55.21

% 3.31

% 28.10

% .17% 8.93

% 3.14

%

DPA 100.00% 11.6

% .40% .30% 48.59

% 36.92

% 1.91

% 4.73

% 7.14

%

LDP 100.00% 2.3% 12.31% 69.74% 1.03

% 1.03

%

3.08%

12.82

%

SPM 100.00% 1.3% 7.41% 19.44% .93% .93% 57.41

% 2.78

% 11.11

%

Other 100.00% 1.7% 6.71% 30.87% 16.11

% 3.36

% .67% 3.36

% 3.36

% 35.57

%

DK 100.00% 7.6% 14.50% 35.88% 26.87

% 3.05

% 1.07

% 2.29

% 1.83

% 14.50

%

Which political party in 1998 have you voted for?

More than one answer

100.00% .3% 14.29% 53.57% 7.14

% 3.57

% 3.57

% 7.14

% 3.57

% 7.14

%

Gotten better 100.00%

26.0% 54.18% 14.74%

8.03%

8.77%

2.11% .87% .87%

10.42%

Stayed the same 100.00%

34.2% 22.22% 31.35%

16.86%

6.65%

3.74%

1.99%

2.34%

14.84%

Gotten worse

100.00% 39.4

% 4.12% 63.14%

12.43%

1.27%

1.55%

2.94%

1.24%

13.31%

Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or ...

More than one answer

100.00% .3% 10.71% 46.43% 10.71

% 7.14

% 3.57

% 3.57

% 17.86

%

Establishing peace and stability

100.00% 39.9

% 22.08% 43.79% 12.45

% 5.63

% 2.47

% 2.00

% 1.31

% 10.27

%

What should the new government's first priority be?

Economic development

100.00% 15.5

% 29.35% 33.23%

9.71%

5.75%

2.99%

2.24%

1.34%

15.38%

Page 25: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

25

Creating new jobs 100.00%

11.6% 33.30% 37.67%

6.16%

3.48%

1.39%

2.19% .80%

15.01%

Improving Inter-ethnic relations

100.00% 1.6% 17.73% 34.04% 23.40

% 7.09

% 3.55

% 1.42

% 3.55

% 9.22

%

Fighting Corruption 100.00% 3.3% 14.44% 36.27%

15.49%

2.11%

2.11%

2.82%

3.52%

23.24%

Implementing the Framework Agreement

100.00% 5.1% 2.72% 4.76% 61.90

% 12.47

% 8.16

% 5.90

% 4.08

%

Education 100.00% 1.3% 8.77% 17.54% 35.09

% 16.67

% 2.63

% .88% 6.14

% 12.28

%

Reducing Poverty 100.00%

11.2% 24.74% 47.83%

3.42%

1.86% .93%

2.07% .31%

18.84%

Other 100.00% .7% 25.42% 38.98% 5.08

% 5.08

% 1.69

% 1.69

% 1.69

% 20.34

%

DK 100.00% 1.1% 20.20% 39.39% 12.12

% 3.03

% 2.02

% 2.02

% 1.01

% 20.20

%

More than one answer

100.00% 8.6% 21.56% 52.70% 6.47

% 1.75

% .81% 2.70

% .81% 13.21

%

Male 100.00% 63.8

% 23.82% 36.95% 14.27

% 5.92

% 2.83

% 2.09

% 1.67

% 12.44

% Gender

Female 100.00% 36.2

% 22.38% 44.75%

10.53%

3.46%

1.81%

1.81%

1.04%

14.22%

18 – 24 yrs. 100.00% 20.1

% 22.78% 35.07% 17.86

% 7.30

% 1.97

% 1.28

% 2.20

% 11.54

%

25 – 34 yrs. 100.00% 23.6

% 26.83% 35.47% 13.59

% 6.42

% 2.37

% 1.68

% 1.78

% 11.86

%

35 – 44 yrs. 100.00% 25.9

% 23.51% 38.69%

12.21%

5.23%

3.11%

2.03%

1.44%

13.78%

45 – 54 yrs. 100.00% 16.8

% 21.74% 46.97% 9.20

% 2.37

% 2.16

% 2.72

% .91% 13.94

%

55 – 64 yrs. 100.00% 8.8% 19.07% 49.20% 9.33

% 2.00

% 1.60

% 3.07

% 1.33

% 14.40

%

65+ yrs. 100.00% 4.6% 23.53% 43.48% 8.44

% 2.56

% 2.81

% 2.81

% .26%

16.11%

Age

More than one answer

100.00% .2% 18.75% 43.75% 6.25

% 6.25

% 25.00

%

0 – 3,000 den. 100.00%

17.9% 16.21% 29.16%

23.09%

8.17%

6.27%

2.18%

3.47%

11.44%

Total monthly household income 3,001 –

6,000 den. 100.00% 17.9

% 22.72% 35.17% 16.19

% 5.99

% 2.93

% 2.45

% 1.43

% 13.13

%

Page 26: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

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6,001 – 12,000 den. 100.00%

27.8% 22.48% 42.02%

11.48%

5.17%

1.88%

2.19%

1.31%

13.45%

12,001 – 18,000 den. 100.00%

17.0% 26.72% 45.19%

6.97%

3.30% .79%

2.08% .72%

14.22%

18,001 – 24,000 den.

100.00% 9.1% 26.24% 49.93% 4.02

% 2.68

% .67%

2.28%

.67% 13.52

%

24,000+ den. 100.00%

10.2% 30.78% 44.07%

5.63%

2.99%

1.32% .96% .60%

13.65%

More than one answer

100.00% .2% 37.50% 31.25% 6.25

% 25.00

%

Macedonian 100.00%

70.9% 31.62% 50.39% .29% .16% .16%

2.65% .05%

14.68%

Albanian 100.00% 21.8

% .63% 1.00%

54.61%

22.03%

9.91%

6.59

% 5.22

%

Turk 100.00% 2.5% 9.09% 52.73% 21.82

% 3.64

% 1.36

% .45% .91% 10.00

%

Roma 100.00% 1.2% 17.48% 21.36% 1.94

% 3.88

% 55.34

%

Serb 100.00% 1.6% 3.60% 73.38% 1.44

% .72%

4.32%

16.55

%

Vlach 100.00% .6% 22.92% 54.17% 4.17

% 18.75

%

Other 100.00% 1.2% 12.62% 53.40% 5.83

% 3.88

% 1.94

% .97% 21.36

%

Nationality

More than one answer

100.00% .2% 14.29% 50.00% 7.14

% 7.14

% 7.14

% 7.14

%

7.14%

Up to elementary

100.00% 5.6% 29.44% 23.59% 18.37

% 4.80

% 4.18

% 1.25

% 1.67

% 16.70

%

Elementary 100.00% 14.4

% 19.38% 25.81% 24.51

% 8.55

% 5.78

% 1.55

% 2.28

% 12.13

%

Secondary 100.00% 50.2

% 25.78% 40.79% 10.83

% 4.06

% 1.89

% 2.15

% 1.45

% 13.05

%

Higher 100.00% 29.5

% 20.00% 47.99%

9.22%

5.25%

1.43%

2.27%

1.15%

12.68%

Education

More than one answer

100.00% .3% 13.79% 37.93% 13.79

% 6.90

% 27.59

%

Rural 100.00% 50.4

% 23.11% 30.26% 20.62

% 7.38

% 3.81

% 2.09

% 1.47

% 11.28

% RURAL/URBAN

Urban 100.00% 49.6

% 24.58% 49.17% 4.18

% 2.23

% .74% 1.99

% 1.43

% 15.69

%

SETTLEMENT TYPE

up to 1000 inh

100.00% 16.3

% 31.14% 40.14%

6.77%

2.89%

.39% 2.69

%

15.97%

Page 27: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

27

1001-3000 inh 100.00%

21.0% 21.45% 27.91%

23.91%

8.29%

6.30%

1.54%

2.05%

8.55%

3001-5000 inh 100.00%

10.1% 19.85% 23.46%

29.72%

13.16%

4.88%

2.87%

2.34%

3.72%

5001-10000 inh

100.00% 4.1% 21.56% 16.62% 30.91

% 4.42

% 1.04

% .26%

1.82%

23.38%

10001-20000 inh 100.00% 1.3% 24.79% 29.91%

15.38%

6.84%

4.27%

5.13%

5.13%

8.55%

20001-50000 inh 100.00%

17.1% 28.49% 48.62%

2.58% .88% .38%

1.89% .19%

16.98%

50001-100000 inh

100.00% 7.2% 26.79% 44.35% 7.89

% 3.87

% .45%

1.93%

1.19%

13.54%

Skopie 100.00% 23.0

% 18.55% 53.60% 3.79

% 2.57

% .93% 1.96

% 2.29

% 16.31

%

Page 28: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

28

When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates

Subgroup Percentages When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates

SUBGROUP

Today

Within the last

week

In the last

month

1 to 3 months ago

More than 3 months ago

Always vote for the same party

More than one

answer

Overall Distribution 100.00% 100.0

% 16.90

% 5.11% 5.68% 5.95% 15.15% 50.81

% .41%

Time interval- 7:00 – 10:00

100.00% 22.2% 15.53

% 4.37% 4.37% 4.42% 14.60% 56.28

% .44%

Time interval- 10:01 – 13:00

100.00% 32.2% 17.27

% 4.41% 6.05% 4.91% 16.47% 50.53

% .37%

Time interval- 13:01 – 16:00

100.00% 22.9% 17.99

% 5.76% 6.04% 7.40% 13.68% 48.83

% .28%

Wave Number

Time interval- 16:01 – 19:00

100.00% 22.7% 16.62

% 6.16% 6.06% 7.43% 15.29%

47.87%

.57%

Electoral district No.1 100.00% 17.6%

17.85% 5.91% 5.36% 4.51% 18.34%

47.71% .30%

Electoral district No.2

100.00% 15.6% 19.53

% 5.71% 6.12% 4.75% 16.71%

46.29%

.89%

Electoral district No.3 100.00% 16.2%

14.71% 3.64% 3.91% 3.64% 13.32%

60.64% .13%

Electoral district No.4 100.00% 17.0%

14.90% 3.42% 3.80% 2.92% 11.16%

63.22% .57%

Electoral district No.5

100.00% 16.1% 9.88% 3.81% 5.14% 11.01% 11.75% 58.01

% .40%

Electoral district

Electoral district No.6 100.00% 17.4%

24.04% 7.95% 9.56% 8.88% 19.24%

30.15% .18%

Together for You 100.00% 23.5%

13.36% 3.41% 2.15% 2.63% 8.04%

69.87% .54%

Together for Macedonia

100.00% 39.7% 12.46

% 2.85% 2.85% 2.50% 14.82%

64.25%

.26%

DUI 100.00% 12.8% 23.39

% 7.05% 17.77

% 21.16% 25.36% 5.18% .09%

Recoded Vote

DPA 100.00% 5.0% 23.92

% 7.29% 4.33% 3.87% 9.11% 51.25

% .23%

Page 29: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

29

PDP 100.00% 2.4% 24.88

% 5.74% 3.35% 2.87% 4.31% 58.37

% .48%

SPM 100.00% 2.0% 20.11

% 10.34

% 11.49

% 6.32% 17.24% 33.91

% .57%

NDP 100.00% 1.5% 25.19

% 9.92%

10.69%

14.50% 30.53% 9.16%

Other 100.00% 13.1% 20.84

% 9.59% 9.50% 8.46% 19.01% 32.26

% .35%

Today 16.90% 16.9% 16.90

%

Within the last week

5.11% 5.1% 5.11%

In the last month 5.68% 5.7% 5.68%

1 to 3 months ago 5.95% 5.9% 5.95%

More than 3 months ago

15.15% 15.1% 15.15%

Always vote for the same party

50.81% 50.8% 50.81

%

When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates

More than one answer .41% .4% .41%

Trust this party the most

100.00% 46.4% 16.90

% 3.67% 4.92% 4.92% 13.18% 56.17

% .24%

Party leader 100.00% 10.8% 17.59

% 8.74% 10.08

% 14.40% 16.46% 32.30

% .41%

Party's stance on the issues

100.00% 8.5% 9.16% 5.50% 7.46% 6.02% 29.58% 42.28

%

Candidate leading the list

100.00% 4.7% 16.51

% 10.77

% 11.96

% 14.59% 21.05%

25.12%

They are not as bad as other parties

100.00% 7.4% 22.16

% 9.88% 7.04% 5.39% 30.69%

24.70%

.15%

I have always voted for this party

100.00% 15.3% 8.85% 1.74% 1.96% .80% 2.10% 84.33

% .22%

Other 100.00% 4.8% 41.30

% 8.58% 7.19% 7.19% 21.11% 14.39

% .23%

Reasons that describe why you voted for that list

More than one answer

100.00% 2.1% 14.14

% 6.81% 3.14% 3.14% 13.61%

52.36%

6.81%

Page 30: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

30

VMRO-DPMNE 100.00% 29.6%

16.22% 4.72% 3.27% 2.85% 13.36%

59.00% .57%

SDSM 100.00% 33.7% 11.75

% 2.48% 2.58% 2.44% 9.10% 71.35

% .30%

DA 100.00% 4.3% 15.06

% 9.87% 8.57% 6.75% 28.05%

31.43%

.26%

PDP 100.00% 7.0% 20.00

% 7.90% 12.42

% 17.42% 18.71% 23.55

%

DPA 100.00% 11.5% 21.27

% 8.04% 12.06

% 14.80% 19.51% 24.12

% .20%

LDP 100.00% 2.4% 11.79

% 5.66% 4.25% 5.66% 22.64%

50.00%

SPM 100.00% 1.3% 14.91

% 4.39% 7.89% 4.39% 19.30% 48.25

% .88%

Other 100.00% 1.9% 24.70

% 10.24

% 10.24

% 8.43% 21.69% 24.70

%

DK 100.00% 8.0% 25.53

% 6.67%

10.07%

9.22% 25.96% 22.55

%

Which political party in 1998 have you voted for?

More than one answer 100.00% .3%

25.93% 3.70% 7.41% 25.93%

29.63% 7.41%

Gotten better 100.00% 26.0%

17.75% 3.55% 2.85% 3.51% 9.77%

62.18% .39%

Stayed the same

100.00% 34.2% 17.11

% 7.18% 8.34% 7.64% 16.35%

43.22%

.17%

Gotten worse 100.00% 39.5%

14.75% 4.38% 5.39% 6.34% 18.55%

50.24% .35%

Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or ...

More than one answer 100.00% .3%

17.86% 3.57% 7.14% 3.57% 3.57%

60.71% 3.57%

Establishing peace and stability

100.00% 40.1% 18.06

% 4.66% 5.32% 4.22% 13.51%

53.93%

.30%

Economic development

100.00% 15.5% 14.66

% 5.84% 5.55% 5.27% 17.94%

50.60%

.14%

Creating new jobs

100.00% 11.6% 19.11

% 3.80% 4.37% 4.85% 12.74%

54.94%

.19%

Improving Inter-ethnic relations

100.00% 1.6% 14.97

% 10.20

% 8.84% 10.88% 17.01% 38.10

%

Fighting Corruption 100.00% 3.2%

14.38% 6.16% 6.51% 9.93% 24.32%

38.36% .34%

What should the new government's first priority be?

Implementing the Framework Agreement

100.00% 4.9% 9.95% 4.98% 11.09

% 28.96% 23.30% 21.72

%

Page 31: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

31

Education 100.00% 1.4% 17.46

% 10.32

% 10.32

% 17.46% 16.67% 27.78

%

Reducing Poverty 100.00% 11.1%

14.20% 4.57% 6.06% 2.68% 14.60%

57.60% .30%

Other 100.00% .7% 29.03

% 4.84% 8.06% 8.06% 11.29%

37.10%

1.61%

DK 100.00% 1.2% 27.78

% 11.11

% 5.56% 2.78% 9.26% 43.52

%

More than one answer 100.00% 8.5%

13.99% 5.57% 4.79% 4.02% 16.06%

53.76% 1.81%

Male 100.00% 63.7% 16.33

% 5.06% 5.70% 6.28% 15.43%

50.95%

.26% Gender

Female 100.00% 36.3% 16.30

% 5.06% 6.02% 5.86% 15.43% 51.14

% .19%

18 – 24 yrs. 100.00% 20.4% 21.24

% 5.36% 6.95% 7.06% 15.00% 44.28

% .11%

25 – 34 yrs. 100.00% 23.6% 16.45

% 5.63% 5.82% 5.39% 14.70%

51.77%

.24%

35 – 44 yrs. 100.00% 25.7% 15.12

% 4.61% 5.00% 6.43% 16.43% 52.11

% .30%

45 – 54 yrs. 100.00% 16.6% 12.91

% 4.37% 5.31% 5.45% 16.07% 55.35

% .54%

55 – 64 yrs. 100.00% 8.9% 13.32

% 5.78% 5.65% 5.53% 13.94%

55.15%

.63%

65+ yrs. 100.00% 4.5% 20.75

% 5.25% 6.00% 3.50% 14.25% 49.25

% 1.00%

Age

More than one answer 100.00% .2%

11.11%

11.11% 5.56% 5.56%

61.11% 5.56%

0 – 3,000 den.

100.00% 17.7% 24.10

% 5.78% 7.55% 6.83% 12.48%

42.88%

.39%

3,001 – 6,000 den. 100.00% 17.7%

18.68% 6.38% 6.18% 7.43% 15.86%

45.13% .33%

6,001 – 12,000 den. 100.00% 27.7%

14.24% 5.14% 6.32% 6.78% 14.79%

52.49% .25%

12,001 – 18,000 den.

100.00% 17.2% 12.38

% 3.92% 4.26% 5.62% 16.17%

57.24%

.41%

18,001 – 24,000 den. 100.00% 9.1%

10.90% 5.26% 4.36% 3.85% 17.95%

57.69%

24,000+ den. 100.00% 10.4% 14.80

% 4.15% 4.26% 3.59% 18.05% 54.71

% .45%

Total monthly household income

More than one answer

100.00% .2% 16.67

% 5.56% 11.11% 5.56%

55.56%

5.56%

Nationality Macedonian 100.00% 71.2% 14.41

% 4.34% 3.56% 3.28% 13.65% 60.34

% .42%

Page 32: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

32

Albanian 100.00% 21.4% 22.33

% 7.30% 12.45

% 15.07% 20.78% 21.97

% .10%

Turk 100.00% 2.6% 21.94

% 9.28% 8.86% 10.97% 10.55% 38.40

%

Roma 100.00% 1.2% 24.76

% 5.71% 6.67% 3.81% 15.24%

43.81%

Serb 100.00% 1.7% 15.33

% 1.33% 4.00% 2.00% 20.00% 56.67

% .67%

Vlach 100.00% .6% 13.46

% 5.77% 23.08% 57.69

%

Other 100.00% 1.2% 22.64

% 8.49% 9.43% 2.83% 16.04%

40.57%

More than one answer 100.00% .2%

23.53% 5.88% 17.65% 5.88%

35.29%

11.76%

Up to elementary 100.00% 5.5%

24.64% 6.92% 7.13% 5.30% 10.59%

45.21% .20%

Elementary 100.00% 14.0% 22.15

% 7.41% 8.29% 8.29% 11.79%

41.35%

.72%

Secondary 100.00% 49.9% 16.41

% 4.64% 5.22% 5.94% 13.95% 53.50

% .34%

Higher 100.00% 30.2% 11.90

% 4.63% 5.15% 5.19% 20.21% 52.76

% .15%

Education

More than one answer

100.00% .4% 21.88

% 6.25% 3.13% 9.38% 18.75%

37.50%

3.13%

Rural 100.00% 50.3% 17.00

% 5.32% 7.38% 8.17% 13.92% 47.85

% .36% RURAL/URBAN

Urban 100.00% 49.7% 16.80

% 4.89% 3.96% 3.70% 16.39% 53.81

% .45%

up to 1000 inh

100.00% 16.4% 13.12

% 4.13% 5.18% 4.79% 12.60%

59.78%

.39%

1001-3000 inh 100.00% 20.1%

19.18% 5.07% 6.84% 7.59% 14.32%

46.53% .48%

3001-5000 inh 100.00% 10.4%

20.85% 7.05% 9.85% 7.37% 14.00%

40.66% .21%

5001-10000 inh

100.00% 4.6% 11.01

% 5.85%

10.30%

23.42% 14.29% 35.13

%

10001-20000 inh 100.00% 1.3% 8.55% 1.71% 6.84% 4.27% 19.66%

58.97%

20001-50000 inh 100.00% 16.6%

15.97% 4.40% 3.17% 3.56% 12.80%

59.86% .26%

50001-100000 inh

100.00% 7.0% 15.73

% 4.43% 4.43% 4.12% 16.18%

54.50%

.61%

SETTLEMENT TYPE

Skopie 100.00% 23.6% 18.45

% 5.69% 4.37% 3.64% 19.41% 47.84

% .59%

Page 33: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

33

Reason for Party / Coalition Preference

Subgroup Percentages Reasons that describe why you voted for that list

SUBGROUP

Trust this

party the

most

Party leade

r

Party's

stance on the

issues

Candidate

leading the list

They are not as

bad as

other partie

s

I have alway

s voted

for this

party

Other

More than one

answer

Overall Distribution 100.00% 100.0

% 46.11

% 10.82

% 8.51% 4.67% 7.43%

15.41%

4.81% 2.23%

Time interval- 7:00 – 10:00

100.00% 21.9% 51.56

% 8.44% 8.34% 4.07% 6.08% 15.53

% 3.87% 2.11%

Time interval- 10:01 – 13:00

100.00% 32.2% 48.62

% 10.58

% 7.85% 4.54% 7.03%

15.39%

3.86% 2.15%

Time interval- 13:01 – 16:00

100.00% 23.1% 44.07

% 12.67

% 8.48% 5.00% 7.96% 14.58

% 5.00% 2.24%

Wave Number

Time interval- 16:01 – 19:00

100.00% 22.8% 39.43

% 11.56

% 9.63% 5.10% 8.76% 16.18

% 6.88% 2.46%

Electoral district No.1

100.00% 17.7% 40.47

% 8.94%

11.24%

5.59% 9.99% 12.97

% 7.57% 3.23%

Electoral district No.2

100.00% 15.7% 44.37

% 12.86

% 8.39% 6.43% 7.27%

14.12%

4.54% 2.03%

Electoral district No.3

100.00% 16.1% 45.57

% 6.82% 8.39% 5.39% 6.28%

19.10%

5.46% 3.00%

Electoral district No.4

100.00% 16.9% 48.02

% 7.94% 8.07% 3.45% 7.68%

18.28%

4.10% 2.47%

Electoral district No.5

100.00% 16.1% 44.34

% 11.80

% 8.05% 4.84% 6.62%

18.76%

3.89% 1.71%

Electoral district

Electoral district No.6

100.00% 17.4% 53.72

% 16.46

% 6.81% 2.52% 6.56% 9.77% 3.22% .95%

Page 34: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

34

Together for You 100.00% 23.2%

46.55% 6.54% 8.00% 4.43% 6.44%

21.99% 3.93% 2.11%

Together for Macedonia

100.00% 39.7% 48.71

% 5.56% 9.24% 3.06% 7.74% 18.79

% 4.76% 2.15%

DUI 100.00% 12.9% 55.36

% 27.09

% 5.55% 3.27% 4.91% 1.36% 1.73% .73%

DPA 100.00% 5.0% 42.69

% 27.38

% 4.41% 3.71% 3.02%

16.71%

.70% 1.39%

PDP 100.00% 2.5% 55.24

% 8.10% 4.76% 5.24% 1.90% 21.43

% 2.86% .48%

SPM 100.00% 2.0% 36.26

% 9.36% 15.20

% 5.26% 14.62

% 8.19% 4.68% 6.43%

NDP 100.00% 1.5% 48.09

% 12.98

% 9.16% 17.56% 6.11% 3.05% 3.05%

Recoded Vote

Other 100.00% 13.2% 32.24

% 12.97

% 11.28

% 9.77% 12.34

% 9.68% 8.61% 3.11%

Today 100.00% 16.6% 47.28

% 11.48

% 4.70% 4.63% 9.94% 8.19% 11.95

% 1.81%

Within the last week

100.00% 5.2% 32.90

% 18.28

% 9.03% 9.68%

14.19%

5.16% 7.96% 2.80%

In the last month 100.00% 5.8%

39.35%

18.81%

10.94% 9.60% 9.02% 5.18% 5.95% 1.15%

1 to 3 months ago

100.00% 6.0% 38.25

% 26.12

% 8.58% 11.38% 6.72% 2.05% 5.78% 1.12%

More than 3 months ago

100.00% 15.3% 39.96

% 11.64

% 16.45

% 6.40% 14.92

% 2.11% 6.62% 1.89%

Always vote for the same party

100.00% 50.9% 51.19

% 6.87% 7.07% 2.30% 3.61% 25.42

% 1.36% 2.19%

When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates

More than one answer

100.00% .4% 31.25

% 12.50

% 3.13% 9.38% 3.13% 40.63

%

Trust this party the most

46.11% 46.1% 46.11

%

Party leader 10.82% 10.8%

10.82%

Party's stance on the issues

8.51% 8.5% 8.51%

Reasons that describe why you voted for that list

Candidate leading the list

4.67% 4.7% 4.67%

Page 35: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

35

They are not as bad as other parties

7.43% 7.4% 7.43%

I have always voted for this party

15.41% 15.4% 15.41

%

Other 4.81% 4.8% 4.81%

More than one answer

2.23% 2.2% 2.23%

VMRO-DPMNE 100.00% 29.4%

44.49% 6.93% 9.00% 5.06% 8.38%

17.69% 6.04% 2.42%

SDSM 100.00% 33.6% 51.53

% 5.78% 7.96% 2.38% 5.99% 21.05

% 2.69% 2.62%

DA 100.00% 4.5% 30.85

% 12.08

% 15.68

% 10.54%

13.11%

6.43% 6.94% 4.37%

PDP 100.00% 7.1% 52.65

% 21.51

% 5.14% 7.87% 3.69% 7.38% 1.28% .48%

DPA 100.00% 11.5% 48.01

% 27.53

% 6.16% 4.57% 3.98% 7.85% 1.09% .80%

LDP 100.00% 2.4% 34.60

% 5.69%

16.59%

5.69% 7.58% 18.96

% 8.06% 2.84%

SPM 100.00% 1.3% 41.96

% 11.61

% 12.50

% 2.68% 11.61

% 13.39

% 1.79% 4.46%

Other 100.00% 1.8% 36.88

% 8.13% 8.75% 6.88% 10.00

% 11.88

% 15.63

% 1.88%

DK 100.00% 8.0% 39.60

% 13.96

% 8.26% 6.55%

13.25%

5.56% 12.54

% .28%

Which political party in 1998 have you voted for?

More than one answer

100.00% .3% 48.15

% 14.81

% 11.11

% 7.41% 3.70% 14.81

%

Gotten better 100.00% 25.8%

50.96% 9.70% 6.36% 3.92% 4.76%

18.34% 3.34% 2.63%

Stayed the same 100.00% 34.3%

41.77%

13.65% 8.90% 5.96% 8.33%

13.82% 6.19% 1.37%

Gotten worse

100.00% 39.5% 46.92

% 9.34% 9.69% 3.93% 8.76%

14.58%

4.66% 2.12%

Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or ...

More than one answer

100.00% .3% 27.59

% 10.34

% 6.90% 6.90% 10.34

% 17.24

% 3.45% 17.24

%

What should the new government's first

Establishing peace and stability

100.00% 39.9% 54.15

% 9.52% 7.66% 3.12% 6.71% 14.65

% 2.81% 1.38%

Page 36: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

36

Economic development

100.00% 15.7% 45.24

% 11.88

% 11.17

% 6.01% 6.80% 11.52

% 6.37% 1.00%

Creating new jobs 100.00% 11.7%

45.73% 9.97% 7.38% 4.70% 7.00%

18.60% 5.85% .77%

Improving Inter-ethnic relations

100.00% 1.6% 39.04

% 18.49

% 17.12

% 6.16% 5.48% 9.59% 2.74% 1.37%

Fighting Corruption 100.00% 3.2%

33.92%

15.73%

11.89% 7.34% 8.74%

13.29% 8.39% .70%

Implementing the Framework Agreement

100.00% 5.0% 41.22

% 26.13

% 8.78% 6.08% 4.95% 9.91% 2.25% .68%

Education 100.00% 1.4% 37.01

% 20.47

% 10.24

% 10.24% 5.51% 10.24

% 4.72% 1.57%

Reducing Poverty

100.00% 11.1% 34.38

% 7.28% 7.08% 6.37%

12.34%

24.87%

6.27% 1.42%

Other 100.00% .7% 24.19

% 3.23% 11.29

% 9.68% 8.06% 14.52

% 27.42

% 1.61%

DK 100.00% 1.2% 40.00

% 11.43

% 2.86% 9.52% 6.67% 15.24

% 14.29

%

priority be?

More than one answer

100.00% 8.6% 39.35

% 7.45% 8.89% 3.01% 8.63%

14.38%

5.36% 12.94

%

Male 100.00% 63.7% 46.99

% 11.26

% 8.50% 4.39% 6.88%

15.10%

4.76% 2.12% Gender

Female 100.00% 36.3% 45.09

% 10.34

% 8.88% 5.25% 8.56% 15.04

% 5.25% 1.59%

18 – 24 yrs. 100.00% 20.6% 45.12

% 13.55

% 7.44% 4.79% 7.88% 12.78

% 7.38% 1.05%

25 – 34 yrs. 100.00% 23.7% 45.28

% 11.35

% 8.43% 4.83% 7.23%

15.56%

5.89% 1.44%

35 – 44 yrs. 100.00% 25.8% 45.44

% 10.35

% 8.46% 5.04% 7.76% 16.49

% 4.34% 2.11%

45 – 54 yrs. 100.00% 16.6% 47.13

% 8.74% 10.86

% 4.37% 8.54% 15.23

% 2.19% 2.94%

55 – 64 yrs. 100.00% 8.7% 48.96

% 9.48% 9.48% 4.94% 5.45%

15.45%

3.12% 3.12%

65+ yrs. 100.00% 4.5% 49.75

% 9.64% 5.84% 3.05% 6.09% 17.51

% 3.55% 4.57%

Age

More than one answer

100.00% .2% 56.25

% 6.25% 6.25% 25.00

% 6.25%

Total monthly

0 – 3,000 den. 100.00% 17.7%

48.04%

13.97% 5.52% 4.19% 7.19%

15.77% 3.73% 1.60%

Page 37: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

37

3,001 – 6,000 den. 100.00% 17.8%

48.54%

11.66% 8.41% 3.77% 6.23%

14.97% 4.50% 1.92%

6,001 – 12,000 den. 100.00% 27.6%

46.40%

11.22% 8.74% 4.82% 7.46%

15.10% 3.80% 2.47%

12,001 – 18,000 den.

100.00% 17.3% 43.52

% 9.35% 9.21% 5.53% 8.32%

16.37%

5.59% 2.11%

18,001 – 24,000 den. 100.00% 9.1%

43.73% 8.54%

11.51% 4.66% 8.67%

15.65% 5.56% 1.68%

24,000+ den. 100.00% 10.4%

42.92% 8.72%

10.87% 5.44% 8.27%

13.59% 8.15% 2.04%

household income

More than one answer

100.00% .2% 27.78

% 5.56%

11.11%

5.56% 16.67

% 16.67

% 11.11

% 5.56%

Macedonian

100.00% 71.2% 45.27

% 6.93% 9.16% 4.45% 8.30%

17.78%

5.72% 2.39%

Albanian 100.00% 21.5% 51.12

% 24.36

% 5.87% 4.99% 4.52% 7.12% 1.40% .62%

Turk 100.00% 2.6% 42.92

% 9.44% 11.16

% 4.72% 6.44% 16.74

% 5.15% 3.43%

Roma 100.00% 1.1% 39.00

% 15.00

% 6.00% 11.00% 5.00%

14.00%

4.00% 6.00%

Serb 100.00% 1.7% 40.67

% 4.00% 9.33% 4.00% 13.33

% 15.33

% 8.00% 5.33%

Vlach 100.00% .6% 48.00

% 8.00% 8.00% 6.00% 6.00% 12.00

% 10.00

% 2.00%

Other 100.00% 1.2% 35.58

% 14.42

% 15.38

% 3.85% 8.65%

12.50%

7.69% 1.92%

Nationality

More than one answer

100.00% .2% 26.67

% 6.67% 20.00

% 6.67% 26.67

% 13.33

%

Up to elementary 100.00% 5.5%

51.14%

15.18% 4.16% 3.53% 5.20%

16.42% 2.49% 1.87%

Elementary 100.00% 13.9% 50.00

% 14.72

% 5.20% 4.72% 5.37% 14.80

% 2.93% 2.28%

Secondary 100.00% 49.9% 46.33

% 10.54

% 8.06% 4.29% 7.97%

16.22%

4.66% 1.93%

Higher 100.00% 30.4% 43.90

% 9.00% 11.46

% 5.52% 8.10% 13.33

% 6.49% 2.20%

Education

More than one answer

100.00% .4% 38.71

% 3.23% 19.35

% 6.45% 22.58

% 3.23% 6.45%

Rural 100.00% 50.3% 47.81

% 14.32

% 6.91% 4.48% 5.95% 15.22

% 3.39% 1.92% RURAL/URBAN

Urban 100.00% 49.7% 44.40

% 7.27%

10.13%

4.86% 8.93% 15.61

% 6.26% 2.54%

Page 38: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

38

up to 1000 inh 100.00% 16.3%

49.06% 8.96% 7.08% 4.11% 6.33%

19.07% 4.11% 1.28%

1001-3000 inh 100.00% 20.2%

48.12%

15.42% 7.08% 3.65% 6.10%

14.66% 2.72% 2.23%

3001-5000 inh

100.00% 10.4% 49.63

% 15.59

% 6.15% 5.09% 5.09%

12.62%

3.71% 2.12%

5001-10000 inh 100.00% 4.6%

35.32%

24.34% 6.44% 7.64% 5.73%

14.32% 3.34% 2.86%

10001-20000 inh 100.00% 1.3%

50.43% 8.55%

10.26% 6.84% 7.69%

13.68% 2.56%

20001-50000 inh

100.00% 16.5% 47.43

% 6.35% 9.29% 4.07% 7.15%

17.84%

5.28% 2.61%

50001-100000 inh 100.00% 7.1%

45.81% 6.99% 9.16% 4.04%

10.40%

16.61% 5.43% 1.55%

SETTLEMENT TYPE

Skopie 100.00% 23.7% 41.89

% 7.83% 11.31

% 5.65% 9.96% 13.02

% 7.46% 2.87%

Page 39: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

39

1998 Vote

Subgroup Percentages Which political party in 1998 have you voted for?

SUBGROUP

VMRO-

DPMNE

SDSM

DA PDP DPA LDP SPM Othe

r DK

More than one

answer

Overall Distribution 100.00% 100.0

% 29.89

% 33.73

% 4.38

% 6.97

% 11.29

% 2.36

% 1.28

% 1.86

% 7.84

% .40%

Time interval- 7:00 – 10:00

100.00% 22.2

% 26.49

% 41.82

% 4.12

% 5.75

% 11.16

% 2.33

% 1.24

% 1.84

% 4.91

% .35%

Time interval- 10:01 – 13:00

100.00% 32.3

% 29.73

% 33.92

% 4.16

% 6.55

% 11.69

% 2.28

% 1.26

% 2.01

% 7.88

% .51%

Time interval- 13:01 – 16:00

100.00% 22.9

% 30.07

% 28.68

% 4.17

% 8.54

% 12.42

% 2.83

% 1.20

% 1.82

% 10.12

% .14%

Wave Number

Time interval- 16:01 – 19:00

100.00% 22.6

% 33.27

% 30.65

% 5.15

% 7.19

% 9.71

% 2.04

% 1.41

% 1.70

% 8.35

% .53%

Electoral district No.1

100.00% 17.9

% 24.92

% 38.09

% 8.43

% 4.12

% 8.31

% 3.88

% .98% 2.95

% 7.88

% .43%

Electoral district No.2

100.00% 15.8

% 28.06

% 30.29

% 3.06

% 14.35

% 9.33

% 2.30

% 1.74

% 1.32

% 9.19

% .35%

Electoral district No.3

100.00% 16.2

% 41.48

% 38.76

% 2.92

% 1.36

% 1.77

% 2.85

% 2.85

% 1.56

% 5.91

% .54%

Electoral district No.4

100.00% 17.1

% 40.12

% 43.34

% 5.60

% .26% .06% 3.22

% 1.03

% .45% 5.41

% .52%

Electoral district No.5

100.00% 16.3

% 36.87

% 31.94

% 4.26

% 8.66

% 9.88

% .88% .74% .88%

5.48% .41%

Electoral district

Electoral district No.6

100.00% 16.8

% 8.57

% 19.44

% 1.57

% 13.68

% 38.29

% .92% .39%

3.86%

13.15% .13%

Recoded Vote

Together for You 100.00%

23.6%

87.60%

3.85%

1.38% .20%

1.19% .40% .49%

4.69% .20%

Page 40: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

40

Together for Macedonia

100.00% 40.0

% 9.22

% 73.44

% 3.82

% .20% .09% 3.97

% .61% 1.34

% 6.86

% .44%

DUI 100.00% 12.4

% 1.79

% .85%

1.13%

31.45%

45.48%

.19%

.09% 2.26

% 16.57

% .19%

DPA 100.00% 5.0% 1.86

% .47% .93% 4.65

% 85.35

% .47% .23%

1.16%

4.65% .23%

PDP 100.00% 2.4% 2.38

% 3.33

% 80.95

% 9.05

% .48% 3.33

% .48%

SPM 100.00% 2.0% 24.71

% 18.97

% 4.02

% .57%

3.45%

35.63%

2.87%

8.62%

1.15%

NDP 100.00% 1.5% 2.34

% 2.34

% 42.19

% 36.72

% 2.34

% 3.91

% 9.38

% .78%

Other 100.00% 13.1

% 34.05

% 23.59

% 17.61

% 1.70

% 6.34

% 2.23

% 1.07

% 4.74

% 8.49

% .18%

Today 100.00% 16.3

% 29.46

% 24.27

% 4.01

% 8.58

% 15.01

% 1.73

% 1.18

% 2.84

% 12.45

% .48%

Within the last week

100.00% 5.1% 27.62

% 16.48

% 8.46

% 10.91

% 18.26

% 2.67

% 1.11

% 3.79

% 10.47

% .22%

In the last month 100.00% 5.7%

17.06%

15.28%

6.55%

15.28%

24.40%

1.79%

1.79%

3.37%

14.09% .40%

1 to 3 months ago

100.00% 6.0% 14.18

% 13.80

% 4.91

% 20.42

% 28.54

% 2.27

% .95% 2.65

% 12.29

%

More than 3 months ago

100.00% 15.1

% 26.15

% 20.27

% 8.05

% 8.64

% 14.83

% 3.58

% 1.64

% 2.68

% 13.64

% .52%

Always vote for the same party

100.00% 51.5

% 33.96

% 46.71

% 2.65

% 3.20

% 5.39

% 2.32

% 1.21

% .90% 3.48

% .18%

When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates

More than one answer

100.00% .3% 50.00

% 30.00

% 3.33

% 6.67

% 3.33

% 6.67

%

Trust this party the most

100.00% 46.4

% 28.14

% 37.33

% 2.96

% 8.08

% 11.90

% 1.80

% 1.16

% 1.45

% 6.85

% .32%

Party leader 100.00%

10.8%

18.82%

17.97%

4.97%

14.16%

29.28%

1.27%

1.37%

1.37%

10.36% .42%

Party's stance on the issues

100.00% 8.5% 31.05

% 31.45

% 8.20

% 4.30

% 8.33

% 4.70

% 1.88

% 1.88

% 7.80

% .40%

Reasons that describe why you voted for that list

Candidate leading the list

100.00% 4.7% 31.86

% 17.16

% 10.05

% 12.01

% 11.27

% 2.94

% .74% 2.70

% 11.27

%

Page 41: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

41

They are not as bad as other parties

100.00% 7.4% 33.44

% 27.37

% 7.93

% 3.58

% 6.22

% 2.49

% 2.02

% 2.49

% 14.46

%

I have always voted for this party

100.00% 15.3

% 33.93

% 46.26

% 1.87

% 3.44

% 5.90

% 2.99

% 1.12

% 1.42

% 2.91

% .15%

Other 100.00% 4.7% 37.53

% 19.13

% 6.54

% 1.94

% 2.66

% 4.12

% .48% 6.05

% 21.31

% .24%

More than one answer

100.00% 2.1% 33.16

% 41.18

% 9.09

% 1.60

% 4.28

% 3.21

% 2.67

% 1.60

% 1.07

% 2.14

%

VMRO-DPMNE 29.89%

29.9%

29.89%

SDSM 33.73% 33.7

%

33.73%

DA 4.38% 4.4% 4.38

%

PDP 6.97% 7.0% 6.97

%

DPA 11.29% 11.3

%

11.29%

LDP 2.36% 2.4% 2.36

%

SPM 1.28% 1.3% 1.28

%

Other 1.86% 1.9% 1.86

%

DK 7.84% 7.8% 7.84

%

Which political party in 1998 have you voted for?

More than one answer

.40% .4% .40%

Gotten better 100.00%

25.9%

56.52%

14.43%

1.84%

4.54%

12.54%

1.53% .72%

1.35%

6.29% .22%

Stayed the same

100.00% 34.2

% 27.17

% 26.35

% 4.96

% 10.03

% 15.47

% 2.24

% 1.19

% 2.24

% 10.06

% .27%

Gotten worse 100.00%

39.6%

14.02%

51.75%

5.63%

6.25%

7.80%

3.02%

1.79%

1.97%

7.45% .32%

Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or ...

More than one answer

100.00% .3% 28.57

% 46.43

% 7.14

% 7.14

% 7.14

% 3.57

%

Page 42: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

42

Establishing peace and stability

100.00% 40.0

% 27.72

% 38.93

% 2.89

% 6.19

% 11.15

% 1.87

% 1.45

% 1.65

% 8.06

% .09%

Economic development

100.00% 15.7

% 34.65

% 25.65

% 8.36

% 6.70

% 11.67

% 3.31

% 1.37

% 2.02

% 6.12

% .14%

Creating new jobs

100.00% 11.5

% 39.92

% 31.47

% 3.64

% 4.13

% 6.88

% 2.75

% 1.08

% 1.47

% 8.36

% .29%

Improving Inter-ethnic relations

100.00% 1.6% 20.28

% 28.67

% 2.80

% 11.89

% 20.98

% 1.40

% 1.40

% 6.29

% 6.29

%

Fighting Corruption

100.00% 3.2% 22.81

% 31.93

% 5.96

% 9.47

% 12.28

% 4.21

% 1.75

% 2.81

% 8.07

% .70%

Implementing the Framework Agreement

100.00% 4.9% 4.39

% 3.46

% 1.39

% 37.18

% 41.34

% .23%

1.15

% 10.85

%

Education

100.00% 1.4% 13.60

% 8.80

% 3.20

% 16.00

% 40.00

%

2.40%

.80% 15.20

%

Reducing Poverty 100.00%

11.2%

34.92%

38.97%

4.45%

2.23%

3.64%

3.64%

1.21%

1.82%

8.70% .40%

Other 100.00% .7% 31.15

% 26.23

% 1.64

% 3.28

% 6.56

% 4.92

% 1.64

% 4.92

% 19.67

%

DK 100.00% 1.2% 20.00

% 33.33

% 3.81

% 2.86

% 9.52

% .95%

1.90%

4.76%

20.95%

1.90%

What should the new government's first priority be?

More than one answer

100.00% 8.5% 29.29

% 45.14

% 7.06

% 2.00

% 5.59

% 2.00

% 1.07

% 1.60

% 4.66

% 1.60

%

Male 100.00% 63.6

% 30.37

% 30.74

% 4.24

% 7.92

% 12.98

% 2.52

% 1.51

% 2.24

% 7.15

% .32% Gender

Female 100.00% 36.4

% 27.58

% 38.58

% 4.54

% 5.94

% 9.01

% 2.19

% .75% 1.24

% 9.92

% .26%

18 – 24 yrs.

100.00% 20.2

% 23.94

% 23.88

% 2.16

% 6.64

% 13.39

% 2.10

% .62%

1.87%

25.18%

.23%

25 – 34 yrs. 100.00%

23.6%

34.64%

28.93%

3.87%

7.11%

14.56%

2.71% .87%

1.84%

5.42% .05%

35 – 44 yrs. 100.00%

26.1%

31.24%

34.44%

4.52%

8.34%

11.67%

2.41%

1.45%

1.89%

3.69% .35%

45 – 54 yrs.

100.00% 16.6

% 27.35

% 42.96

% 6.80

% 6.12

% 7.56

% 2.75

% 2.06

% 1.58

% 2.34

% .48%

Age

55 – 64 yrs. 100.00% 8.9%

28.94%

42.38%

6.46%

5.43%

8.01%

1.16%

1.42%

3.23%

2.58% .39%

Page 43: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

43

65+ yrs. 100.00% 4.4% 27.53

% 46.23

% 3.90

% 7.53

% 5.71

% 2.34

% 2.86

% .78% 2.34

% .78%

More than one answer

100.00% .2% 35.29

% 41.18

% 5.88

% 5.88

% 5.88

% 5.88

%

0 – 3,000 den. 100.00%

17.6%

23.35%

27.32%

2.42%

14.80%

18.30%

.81%

1.28%

2.22%

9.42% .07%

3,001 – 6,000 den.

100.00% 17.6

% 29.27

% 32.50

% 2.89

% 9.22

% 14.67

% 1.68

% 1.41

% 1.48

% 6.26

% .61%

6,001 – 12,000 den.

100.00% 27.9

% 29.01

% 35.56

% 5.23

% 5.91

% 11.74

% 2.51

% 1.40

% 1.53

% 6.76

% .34%

12,001 – 18,000 den.

100.00% 17.2

% 32.07

% 37.72

% 5.10

% 3.52

% 7.24

% 3.17

% 1.31

% 1.72

% 8.07

% .07%

18,001 – 24,000 den.

100.00% 9.1% 30.25

% 37.29

% 6.91

% 3.13

% 6.26

% 3.78

% 1.83

% 1.69

% 8.74

% .13%

24,000+ den.

100.00% 10.3

% 36.22

% 33.91

% 5.31

% 3.46

% 4.73

% 3.23

% .69%

2.88%

9.11%

.46%

Total monthly household income

More than one answer

100.00% .2% 31.25

% 50.00

% 6.25

% 6.25

% 6.25

%

Macedonian 100.00%

71.4%

39.15%

41.88%

5.34% .32% .33%

3.10%

1.52%

1.34%

6.67% .35%

Albanian 100.00% 21.3

% 1.91

% 1.54

% 1.01

% 30.84

% 50.93

% .26% .21%

1.96%

11.18% .16%

Turk 100.00% 2.5% 13.76

% 33.49

% 5.05

% 6.88

% 13.76

% 3.21

% .46%

11.47%

11.93%

Roma 100.00% 1.2% 27.36

% 43.40

% 1.89

% 6.60

% 1.89

% 7.55

% 10.38

% .94%

Serb 100.00% 1.7% 6.71

% 67.79

% 4.03

% 1.34

% 2.01

% 4.70

% 4.03

% 8.72

% .67%

Vlach 100.00% .6% 18.00

% 54.00

% 6.00

%

4.00%

18.00

%

Other 100.00% 1.2% 19.63

% 49.53

% 8.41

% 1.87

% .93% .93%

2.80%

4.67%

11.21%

Nationality

More than one answer

100.00% .1% 15.38

% 46.15

% 15.38

% 7.69

% 7.69

% 7.69

%

Up to elementary

100.00% 5.5% 33.96

% 27.46

% 2.73

% 11.53

% 12.37

% 1.26

% 1.47

% 2.31

% 6.50

% .42% Education

Elementary 100.00%

13.9%

25.64%

24.57%

2.38%

15.53%

20.79%

1.40%

1.15%

2.71%

5.34% .49%

Page 44: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

44

Secondary 100.00%

49.9%

32.26%

35.21%

4.04%

5.80%

9.82%

2.20%

1.19%

1.26%

7.98% .23%

Higher 100.00% 30.3

% 25.88

% 36.40

% 6.28

% 4.54

% 9.91

% 3.37

% 1.59

% 2.31

% 9.46

% .26%

More than one answer

100.00% .4% 29.03

% 22.58

% 6.45

% 3.23

% 12.90

% 9.68

%

12.90%

3.23%

Rural 100.00% 50.1

% 27.89

% 27.10

% 2.46

% 11.98

% 17.49

% 1.87

% 1.43

% 1.60

% 7.90

% .29%

RURAL/URBAN

Urban 100.00% 49.9

% 31.90

% 40.39

% 6.31

% 1.94

% 5.07

% 2.87

% 1.12

% 2.12

% 7.78

% .51%

up to 1000 inh 100.00%

16.5%

38.15%

38.68%

3.26%

2.86%

4.59%

2.53%

1.80%

1.13%

6.66% .33%

1001-3000 inh

100.00% 20.0

% 26.13

% 24.70

% 2.63

% 16.79

% 17.62

% 1.76

% 1.04

% 1.59

% 7.52

% .22%

3001-5000 inh 100.00%

10.3%

22.99%

18.29%

1.07%

14.22%

28.13%

1.60%

2.03%

1.07%

10.16% .43%

5001-10000 inh 100.00% 4.4%

20.79%

13.37%

1.73%

15.84%

35.64% .25%

4.46%

7.92%

10001-20000 inh

100.00% 1.3% 29.31

% 30.17

% 2.59

% 9.48

% 14.66

% .86%

4.31%

1.72%

6.90%

20001-50000 inh 100.00%

16.5%

35.09%

45.01%

5.06% .73%

2.93%

1.86%

1.00%

1.73%

6.06% .53%

50001-100000 inh

100.00% 7.1% 30.54

% 37.52

% 6.67

% 1.55

% 8.99

% 1.24

% 1.40

% 2.64

% 8.68

% .78%

SETTLEMENT TYPE

Skopie 100.00% 23.8

% 28.24

% 39.59

% 7.48

% 2.58

% 5.12

% 4.29

% .97% 2.31

% 8.95

% .46%

Page 45: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

45

Standard of Living Trend

Subgroup Percentages

Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or ...

SUBGROUP

Gotten better

Stayed the same

Gotten worse

More than one answer

Overall Distribution 100.00% 100.0% 26.00% 34.14% 39.52% .34%

Time interval- 7:00 – 10:00 100.00% 21.9% 25.68% 29.90% 44.06% .36%

Time interval- 10:01 – 13:00

100.00% 31.8% 26.70% 32.46% 40.66% .18%

Time interval- 13:01 – 16:00 100.00% 23.3% 26.31% 36.77% 36.39% .53%

Wave Number

Time interval- 16:01 – 19:00 100.00% 23.0% 25.02% 37.81% 36.83% .34%

Electoral district No.1

100.00% 17.7% 20.34% 31.81% 47.40% .44%

Electoral district No.2 100.00% 15.8% 23.86% 37.18% 38.60% .36%

Electoral district No.3 100.00% 16.2% 30.32% 27.33% 42.00% .35%

Electoral district No.4

100.00% 16.7% 30.40% 30.87% 38.53% .20%

Electoral district No.5 100.00% 16.2% 28.84% 35.72% 35.09% .35%

Electoral district

Electoral district No.6 100.00% 17.4% 22.85% 41.75% 35.08% .32%

Together for You 100.00% 23.4% 60.39% 32.50% 6.96% .15%

Together for Macedonia 100.00% 39.6% 9.69% 27.04% 62.87% .39%

DUI 100.00% 12.8% 16.36% 45.05% 38.32% .28%

DPA 100.00% 5.1% 44.94% 44.71% 9.88% .47%

PDP 100.00% 2.5% 22.44% 52.20% 24.88% .49%

SPM 100.00% 2.1% 10.92% 32.76% 55.75% .57%

NDP 100.00% 1.5% 14.96% 52.76% 32.28%

Recoded Vote

Other 100.00% 13.1% 20.73% 38.72% 40.09% .46%

Today 100.00% 16.3% 28.18% 35.84% 35.63% .35%

Within the last week 100.00% 5.1% 18.00% 48.00% 33.78% .22%

In the last month 100.00% 5.7% 12.87% 49.70% 37.03% .40%

When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates

1 to 3 months ago 100.00% 6.0% 15.07% 43.31% 41.43% .19%

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46

More than 3 months ago 100.00% 15.5% 16.40% 36.18% 47.35% .07%

Always vote for the same party 100.00% 51.0% 31.67% 29.03% 38.92% .38%

More than one answer

100.00% .3% 33.33% 18.52% 44.44% 3.70%

Trust this party the most 100.00% 46.1% 28.53% 31.10% 40.17% .20%

Party leader 100.00% 10.9% 22.95% 42.95% 33.79% .32%

Party's stance on the issues 100.00% 8.6% 19.22% 35.75% 44.76% .27%

Candidate leading the list 100.00% 4.6% 21.84% 44.17% 33.50% .50%

They are not as bad as other parties

100.00% 7.6% 16.21% 37.73% 45.61% .45%

I have always voted for this party

100.00% 15.3% 30.95% 31.03% 37.64% .38%

Other 100.00% 4.8% 17.81% 43.94% 38.00% .24%

Reasons that describe why you voted for that list

More than one answer

100.00% 2.0% 33.15% 23.03% 41.01% 2.81%

VMRO-DPMNE 100.00% 29.6% 49.45% 31.43% 18.80% .31%

SDSM 100.00% 33.4% 11.17% 26.98% 61.40% .45%

DA 100.00% 4.4% 10.76% 38.32% 50.39% .52%

PDP 100.00% 7.1% 16.58% 48.44% 34.98%

DPA 100.00% 11.6% 27.90% 45.50% 26.60%

LDP 100.00% 2.4% 16.59% 32.20% 50.24% .98%

SPM 100.00% 1.3% 14.29% 31.25% 54.46%

Other 100.00% 1.9% 18.40% 40.49% 41.10%

DK 100.00% 8.0% 20.23% 42.77% 36.71% .29%

Which political party in 1998 have you voted for?

More than one answer 100.00% .3% 20.00% 32.00% 44.00% 4.00%

Gotten better 26.00% 26.0% 26.00%

Stayed the same 34.14% 34.1% 34.14%

Gotten worse 39.52% 39.5% 39.52%

Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or ...

More than one answer .34% .3% .34%

Establishing peace and stability

100.00% 39.9% 28.69% 32.23% 38.97% .11% What should the new government's first priority be?

Economic development 100.00% 15.8% 27.95% 38.54% 33.21% .29%

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47

Creating new jobs 100.00% 11.7% 29.98% 37.21% 32.32% .49%

Improving Inter-ethnic relations

100.00% 1.6% 23.19% 40.58% 36.23%

Fighting Corruption 100.00% 3.3% 21.88% 31.94% 46.18%

Implementing the Framework Agreement

100.00% 4.9% 14.78% 41.57% 43.19% .46%

Education 100.00% 1.4% 24.80% 48.80% 26.40%

Reducing Poverty 100.00% 11.2% 19.37% 32.25% 48.17% .20%

Other 100.00% .7% 23.33% 38.33% 38.33%

DK 100.00% 1.2% 24.04% 44.23% 30.77% .96%

More than one answer 100.00% 8.3% 20.58% 25.55% 52.49% 1.38%

Male 100.00% 63.6% 26.84% 33.25% 39.69% .22% Gender

Female 100.00% 36.4% 23.75% 36.57% 39.38% .29%

18 – 24 yrs. 100.00% 20.5% 30.62% 37.75% 31.29% .34%

25 – 34 yrs. 100.00% 23.8% 29.67% 36.25% 33.83% .24%

35 – 44 yrs. 100.00% 25.8% 25.35% 34.51% 39.96% .18%

45 – 54 yrs. 100.00% 16.5% 19.87% 29.15% 50.56% .42%

55 – 64 yrs. 100.00% 8.8% 18.28% 31.33% 49.87% .52%

65+ yrs. 100.00% 4.4% 22.43% 32.72% 44.33% .53%

Age

More than one answer

100.00% .2% 47.06% 23.53% 23.53% 5.88%

0 – 3,000 den. 100.00% 17.6% 21.90% 35.39% 42.44% .27%

3,001 – 6,000 den. 100.00% 17.6% 22.36% 35.88% 41.49% .27%

6,001 – 12,000 den. 100.00% 27.8% 23.58% 34.69% 41.25% .47%

12,001 – 18,000 den. 100.00% 17.2% 27.14% 34.81% 37.85% .21%

18,001 – 24,000 den. 100.00% 9.2% 32.25% 31.09% 36.27% .39%

24,000+ den. 100.00% 10.4% 35.84% 32.31% 31.62% .23%

Total monthly household income

More than one answer 100.00% .2% 25.00% 25.00% 43.75% 6.25%

Macedonian 100.00% 71.1% 27.39% 30.66% 41.66% .29%

Albanian 100.00% 21.5% 23.64% 46.53% 29.62% .21%

Turk 100.00% 2.6% 20.18% 36.40% 42.54% .88%

Roma 100.00% 1.2% 21.15% 29.81% 48.08% .96%

Nationality

Serb 100.00% 1.7% 14.67% 24.67% 58.67% 2.00%

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Vlach 100.00% .6% 22.45% 30.61% 46.94%

Other 100.00% 1.2% 9.52% 39.05% 51.43%

More than one answer 100.00% .2% 14.29% 28.57% 50.00% 7.14%

Up to elementary 100.00% 5.5% 31.16% 34.74% 33.68% .42%

Elementary 100.00% 13.7% 26.13% 40.79% 32.91% .17%

Secondary 100.00% 49.9% 26.90% 32.99% 39.73% .37%

Higher 100.00% 30.6% 22.58% 33.76% 43.36% .30%

Education

More than one answer 100.00% .4% 29.03% 19.35% 48.39% 3.23%

Rural 100.00% 50.2% 27.95% 37.86% 33.89% .29% RURAL/URBAN

Urban 100.00% 49.8% 24.04% 30.38% 45.19% .38%

up to 1000 inh 100.00% 16.3% 27.53% 36.89% 35.24% .34%

1001-3000 inh 100.00% 19.9% 27.78% 39.19% 32.64% .40%

3001-5000 inh 100.00% 10.4% 31.43% 35.42% 33.05% .11%

5001-10000 inh 100.00% 4.7% 30.43% 37.20% 32.13% .24%

10001-20000 inh 100.00% 1.3% 32.48% 34.19% 33.33%

20001-50000 inh 100.00% 16.5% 28.02% 26.24% 45.19% .55%

50001-100000 inh 100.00% 7.1% 23.15% 37.64% 39.06% .16%

SETTLEMENT TYPE

Skopie 100.00% 23.7% 19.31% 31.26% 49.10% .33%

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49

What should the new government's first priority be?

Subgroup Percentages What should the new government's first priority be?

SUBGROUP

Establishing peace

and stabilit

y

Economic

development

Creating new jobs

Improving Inter-ethni

c relations

Fighting

Corruption

Implementing

the Framework Agreement

Education

Reducing Pove

rty

Other

DK

More than one answer

Overall Distribution

100.00%

100.0%

39.87% 15.46%

11.58%

1.60% 3.26% 4.88%

1.39%

11.19%

.70%

1.20%

8.88%

Time interval- 7:00 – 10:00

100.00%

22.0%

43.07%

15.64% 9.57

% 1.73

% 3.80% 4.14%

1.28%

9.87%

.64%

.94%

9.32%

Time interval- 10:01 – 13:00

100.00%

32.0%

42.28% 16.08%

10.25%

1.39% 2.75% 4.65%

1.39%

10.69%

.41%

1.09%

9.03%

Time interval- 13:01 – 16:00

100.00%

23.1%

37.39% 14.82%

13.41%

1.65% 2.92% 6.73%

1.51%

11.52%

.52%

1.65%

7.90%

Wave Number

Time interval- 16:01 – 19:00

100.00%

22.8%

35.89%

15.06% 13.54%

1.72%

3.81% 4.05% 1.38

% 12.82

% 1.33%

1.14%

9.25%

Electoral district No.1

100.00%

17.7%

37.17% 19.94%

9.42%

1.91% 4.86% 1.17% .74%

9.11%

1.29%

1.48%

12.92%

Electoral district No.2

100.00%

15.7%

40.00% 15.07%

11.60%

2.01% 2.99% 6.74%

1.25%

9.58%

.42%

1.18%

9.17%

Electoral district No.3

100.00%

16.1%

34.55%

14.30% 15.59%

.94% 2.83% 2.29% .47% 17.48

% .94%

1.35%

9.24%

Electoral district No.4

100.00%

17.0%

40.87% 15.25%

13.26%

1.02% 2.69% .77% .77%

15.50%

.45%

.77%

8.65%

Electoral district No.5

100.00%

16.2%

36.98% 15.17%

13.96%

1.54% 2.35% 9.46%

2.15%

10.07%

.40%

1.28%

6.64%

Electoral district

Electoral

100.00%

17.4%

49.13%

12.81% 6.19

% 2.13

% 3.69% 9.13%

2.94%

5.75%

.63%

1.13%

6.50%

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50

district No.6

Together for You

100.00%

23.3%

37.84% 19.54%

16.66%

1.24% 2.04% .60% .50%

11.88%

.75%

.99%

7.96%

Together for Macedonia

100.00%

39.8%

43.87% 12.94%

11.02%

1.40% 2.99% .61% .58%

13.43%

.67%

1.13%

11.37%

DUI 100.00

% 12.8%

38.75% 11.74%

5.60%

2.98% 3.97% 24.66%

3.61%

2.98%

.27%

1.08%

4.34%

DPA 100.00

% 5.0%

44.80% 17.78%

8.08%

2.31% 1.39% 12.70%

4.39%

4.16%

.69%

.69%

3.00%

PDP 100.00

% 2.4%

41.06%

19.32% 6.76

% 2.42

% 2.90% 17.39%

1.45%

4.35%

.48%

.97%

2.90%

SPM 100.00

% 2.0%

39.43% 17.14%

12.57%

1.14% 4.57% .57%

11.43%

.57%

1.14%

11.43%

NDP 100.00

% 1.5%

34.62% 13.85%

6.15%

3.85% 7.69% 20.00%

5.38%

2.31%

.77%

.77%

4.62%

Recoded Vote

Other 100.00

% 13.1%

31.22% 18.17%

13.32%

1.15% 5.82% 1.59%

1.23%

16.05%

1.06%

1.76%

8.64%

Today 100.00

% 16.5%

43.93%

13.82% 13.48%

1.48%

2.82% 2.95% 1.48

% 9.59

% 1.21%

2.01%

7.24%

Within the last week

100.00%

5.1%

36.50% 17.71%

8.64%

3.24% 3.89% 4.75%

2.81%

9.94%

.65%

2.59%

9.29%

In the last month

100.00%

5.8%

37.12% 15.00%

8.85%

2.50% 3.65% 9.42%

2.50%

11.73%

.96%

1.15%

7.12%

1 to 3 months ago

100.00%

6.0%

28.39% 13.73%

9.46%

2.97% 5.38% 23.75%

4.08%

5.01%

.93%

.56%

5.75%

More than 3 months ago

100.00%

15.3%

35.40% 18.21%

9.68%

1.81% 5.13% 7.44%

1.52%

10.62%

.51%

.72%

8.96%

Always vote for the same party

100.00%

51.0%

42.44%

15.43% 12.54%

1.22%

2.43% 2.08% .76% 12.58

% .50%

1.02%

9.00%

When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates

More than one answer

100.00% .4%

32.35% 5.88%

5.88% 2.94%

8.82%

2.94%

41.18%

Reasons that describ

Trust this party

100.00%

46.2%

46.82%

15.34% 11.58%

1.38%

2.35% 4.44% 1.14%

8.25%

.36%

1.02%

7.31%

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the most

Party leader

100.00%

10.8%

35.09% 17.18%

10.77%

2.80% 4.66% 12.01%

2.69%

7.45%

.21%

1.24%

5.90%

Party's stance on the issues

100.00%

8.6%

35.69%

20.39% 10.07%

3.27%

4.44% 5.10% 1.70

% 9.15

% .92%

.39%

8.89%

Candidate leading the list

100.00%

4.7%

26.68% 20.19%

11.78%

2.16% 5.05% 6.49%

3.13%

15.14%

1.44%

2.40%

5.53%

They are not as bad as other parties

100.00%

7.5%

35.72% 14.20%

10.91%

1.20% 3.74% 3.29%

1.05%

18.24%

.75%

1.05%

9.87%

I have always voted for this party

100.00%

15.3%

38.19% 11.78%

14.19%

1.02% 2.78% 3.22% .95%

18.00%

.66%

1.17%

8.05%

Other 100.00

% 4.8%

23.31% 20.75%

14.22% .93% 5.59% 2.33%

1.40%

14.45%

3.96%

3.50%

9.56%

e why you voted for that list

More than one answer

100.00%

2.2%

25.26%

7.22% 4.12

% 1.03

% 1.03% 1.55%

1.03%

7.22%

.52%

51.03%

VMRO-DPMNE

100.00%

29.5%

37.59% 18.51%

15.62%

1.12% 2.50% .73% .65%

13.27%

.73%

.81%

8.46%

SDSM 100.00

% 33.8%

46.02% 11.94%

10.73%

1.38% 3.05% .50% .37%

12.92%

.54%

1.17%

11.37%

DA 100.00

% 4.4%

26.29% 29.90%

9.54%

1.03% 4.38% 1.55%

1.03%

11.34%

.26%

1.03%

13.66%

PDP 100.00

% 7.0%

35.16% 15.00%

6.77%

2.74% 4.35% 25.97%

3.23%

3.55%

.32%

.48%

2.42%

DPA 100.00

% 11.5%

38.87%

16.02% 6.92

% 2.97

% 3.46% 17.71%

4.95%

3.56%

.40%

.99%

4.15%

LDP 100.00

% 2.4%

31.43% 21.90%

13.33% .95% 5.71% .48%

17.14%

1.43%

.48%

7.14%

SPM 100.00

% 1.3%

44.74% 16.67%

9.65%

1.75% 4.39%

2.63%

10.53%

.88%

1.75%

7.02%

Other 100.00

% 1.8%

35.80%

17.28% 9.26

% 5.56

% 4.94% 3.09% .62%

11.11%

1.85%

3.09%

7.41%

Which political party in 1998 have you voted for?

DK 100.00 8.0 40.17 12.02% 12.0 1.27 3.25% 6.65% 2.69 12.16 1.7 3.1 4.9

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52

% % % 2% % % % 0% 1% 5%

More than one answer

100.00%

.3% 10.71

% 7.14%

10.71%

7.14% 14.29

%

7.14%

42.86%

Gotten better

100.00%

25.9%

44.27% 17.11%

13.54%

1.41% 2.78% 2.82%

1.37%

8.42%

.62%

1.10%

6.57%

Stayed the same

100.00%

34.3%

37.54%

17.80% 12.68%

1.86%

3.06% 5.99% 2.03

% 10.58

% .77%

1.53%

6.16%

Gotten worse

100.00%

39.6%

39.32%

13.29% 9.54

% 1.44

% 3.83% 5.39% .95%

13.69%

.66%

.92%

10.95%

Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or ... More

than one answer

100.00%

.3% 14.29

% 14.29%

17.86%

7.14% 7.14

%

3.57%

35.71%

Establishing peace and stability

39.87%

39.9%

39.87%

Economic development

15.46%

15.5% 15.46%

Creating new jobs

11.58%

11.6%

11.58%

Improving Inter-ethnic relations

1.60% 1.6%

1.60%

Fighting Corruption

3.26% 3.3% 3.26%

Implementing the Framework Agreement

4.88% 4.9%

4.88%

Education 1.39%

1.4%

1.39%

What should the new government's first priority be?

Reducing

11.19%

11.2%

11.19%

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53

Poverty

Other .70% .7% .70%

DK 1.20% 1.2%

1.20%

More than one answer

8.88% 8.9%

8.88%

Male 100.00

% 63.6%

39.47%

16.95% 10.43%

1.59%

3.59% 5.73% 1.21

% 10.47

% .71%

1.24%

8.60%

Gender

Female 100.00

% 36.4%

40.13% 13.65%

14.16%

1.60% 2.85% 3.62%

1.86%

12.65%

.51%

.96%

8.01%

18 – 24 yrs.

100.00%

20.4%

41.18% 13.19%

15.01%

1.21% 2.97% 4.62%

2.75%

11.32%

.99%

2.47%

4.29%

25 – 34 yrs.

100.00%

23.5%

38.55%

15.75% 12.38%

2.09%

3.05% 5.85% 1.29

% 11.76

% .76%

.90%

7.62%

35 – 44 yrs.

100.00%

25.8%

41.10% 15.57%

9.96%

1.04% 3.70% 6.39%

1.09%

11.35%

.57%

.65%

8.57%

45 – 54 yrs.

100.00%

16.7%

38.55% 18.20%

11.62%

1.75% 2.82% 2.96% .87%

11.15%

.54%

.67%

10.88%

55 – 64 yrs.

100.00%

8.9%

40.15% 16.79%

8.46%

2.02% 3.79% 3.54% .88%

9.72%

.25%

1.01%

13.38%

65+ yrs.

100.00%

4.5%

40.59% 13.37%

9.41%

2.23% 3.22% 2.72% .50%

9.65%

.50%

2.23%

15.59%

Age

More than one answer

100.00% .2%

44.44% 5.56%

16.67%

5.56%

11.11%

16.67%

0 – 3,000 den.

100.00%

17.5%

43.22% 9.51%

13.23%

2.46% 2.99% 7.51%

1.73%

11.64%

.33%

1.66%

5.72%

3,001 – 6,000 den.

100.00%

17.7%

38.24% 15.31%

12.75%

1.91% 3.61% 5.65%

1.38%

11.76%

.53%

1.38%

7.49%

6,001 – 12,000 den.

100.00%

27.8%

38.70% 14.63%

12.66%

1.22% 2.94% 5.79%

1.64%

12.79%

.59%

.63%

8.43%

12,001 – 18,000 den.

100.00%

17.2%

39.08% 17.92%

10.62%

1.56% 3.45% 2.97%

1.08%

12.17%

.47%

.88%

9.80%

Total monthly household income

18,001 –

100.00%

9.1%

39.08%

22.22% 10.09%

1.66%

2.94% 2.43% 1.15%

8.17%

.89%

1.40%

9.96%

Page 54: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

54

24,000 den.

24,000+ den.

100.00%

10.4%

37.80% 23.51%

8.66% .79% 4.50% 1.91%

1.12%

7.87%

1.46%

1.91%

10.46%

More than one answer

100.00% .2%

27.78% 11.11%

5.56%

11.11% 5.56%

5.56%

5.56%

27.78%

Macedonian

100.00%

71.3%

40.38% 15.98%

13.16%

1.04% 3.04% .48% .73%

13.52%

.73%

1.12%

9.83%

Albanian

100.00%

21.3%

39.03% 14.66%

6.65%

2.86% 3.74% 20.48%

3.95%

3.74%

.52%

.88%

3.48%

Turk 100.00

% 2.6%

39.08%

12.18% 8.40

% 5.88

% 4.20% 5.46%

5.88%

1.26%

2.10%

15.55%

Roma 100.00

% 1.2%

35.24%

12.38% 15.24%

1.90% .95% 14.29

%

8.57%

11.43%

Serb 100.00

% 1.6%

29.05%

18.24% 16.22%

2.03%

4.05% .68% 1.35

% 13.51

% .68%

.68%

13.51%

Vlach 100.00

% .6%

40.00%

22.00% 14.00%

2.00

% 12.00

%

4.00%

6.00%

Other 100.00

% 1.2%

48.62% 14.68%

8.26%

3.67% 4.59% .92% .92%

8.26%

1.83%

8.26%

Nationality

More than one answer

100.00% .2%

29.41% 5.88%

5.88%

11.76% 5.88%

11.76%

29.41%

Up to elementary

100.00%

5.5%

46.54% 9.76%

11.79% .81% 3.05% 7.52% .81%

9.96%

.61%

3.05%

6.10%

Elementary

100.00%

13.8%

40.72% 12.87%

12.05%

2.04% 3.42% 7.98%

1.30%

10.75%

.24%

1.87%

6.76%

Secondary

100.00%

50.1%

41.31% 13.53%

12.84%

1.55% 3.00% 4.35%

1.19%

13.13%

.60%

.90%

7.62%

Higher 100.00

% 30.3%

36.12%

21.65% 9.51

% 1.59

% 3.59% 3.89%

2.00%

8.55%

.81%

1.00%

11.29%

Education

More than one answer

100.00%

.3% 45.16

% 3.23%

12.90%

6.45%

9.68% 9.68

% 3.23%

9.68%

Rural 100.00

% 50.1%

40.85% 13.56%

10.87%

1.93% 3.04% 8.46%

1.82%

10.30%

.59%

1.17%

7.42% RURAL/

URBAN Urban

100.00%

49.9%

38.88%

17.37% 12.29%

1.26%

3.49% 1.29% .96% 12.07

% .81%

1.22%

10.35

Page 55: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

55

%

up to 1000 inh

100.00%

16.3%

42.91%

12.97% 13.17%

1.47%

2.67% 3.88% .67% 12.97

% .60%

1.67%

7.02%

1001-3000 inh

100.00%

20.1%

41.82%

13.60% 10.02%

2.17%

2.87% 10.62% 1.73

% 8.34

% .54%

.92%

7.37%

3001-5000 inh

100.00%

10.3%

42.15%

13.38% 10.33%

1.79%

3.58% 5.90% 2.53

% 11.17

% .53%

1.05%

7.59%

5001-10000 inh

100.00%

4.6%

21.55%

15.22% 14.05%

2.34%

3.28% 18.74% 4.68

% 7.49

% .94%

1.41%

10.30%

10001-20000 inh

100.00%

1.3%

43.59%

10.26% 6.84

% .85% 6.84% 3.42%

1.71%

18.80%

.85%

6.84%

20001-50000 inh

100.00%

16.6%

39.04%

18.04% 13.52%

1.12%

2.30% .92% .85% 14.50

% .59%

.85%

8.27%

50001-100000 inh

100.00%

7.1%

42.51%

12.84% 14.07%

1.38%

3.67% 1.83% 2.29

% 11.01

% .46%

1.07%

8.87%

SETTLEMENT TYPE

Skopie 100.00

% 23.8%

38.31%

18.95% 10.02%

1.42%

4.21% 1.33% .55% 10.43

% 1.10%

1.42%

12.27%

Page 56: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

56

Gender

Subgroup Percentages Gender

SUBGROUP

Male Female

Overall Distribution 100.00% 100.0% 63.67% 36.33%

Time interval- 7:00 – 10:00 100.00% 21.8% 66.95% 33.05%

Time interval- 10:01 – 13:00 100.00% 31.9% 63.00% 37.00%

Time interval- 13:01 – 16:00 100.00% 23.4% 63.06% 36.94% Wave Number

Time interval- 16:01 – 19:00 100.00% 22.9% 62.10% 37.90%

Electoral district No.1 100.00% 17.7% 59.61% 40.39%

Electoral district No.2 100.00% 15.6% 65.10% 34.90%

Electoral district No.3 100.00% 16.2% 63.77% 36.23%

Electoral district No.4 100.00% 16.7% 61.54% 38.46%

Electoral district No.5 100.00% 16.4% 64.28% 35.72%

Electoral district

Electoral district No.6 100.00% 17.4% 67.87% 32.13%

Together for You 100.00% 23.3% 65.24% 34.76%

Together for Macedonia 100.00% 39.8% 59.28% 40.72%

DUI 100.00% 12.9% 70.49% 29.51%

DPA 100.00% 5.0% 75.12% 24.88%

PDP 100.00% 2.5% 73.40% 26.60%

SPM 100.00% 2.0% 67.07% 32.93%

NDP 100.00% 1.4% 73.95% 26.05%

Recoded Vote

Other 100.00% 13.1% 60.67% 39.33%

Today 100.00% 16.3% 63.72% 36.28%

Within the last week 100.00% 5.1% 63.68% 36.32%

In the last month 100.00% 5.8% 62.40% 37.60%

1 to 3 months ago 100.00% 6.1% 65.28% 34.72%

More than 3 months ago 100.00% 15.4% 63.68% 36.32%

Always vote for the same party 100.00% 51.0% 63.60% 36.40%

When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates

More than one answer 100.00% .2% 70.00% 30.00%

Trust this party the most 100.00% 46.3% 64.70% 35.30%

Party leader 100.00% 10.9% 65.70% 34.30%

Reasons that describe why you voted for that list

Party's stance on the issues 100.00% 8.6% 62.72% 37.28%

Page 57: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

57

Candidate leading the list 100.00% 4.7% 59.50% 40.50%

They are not as bad as other parties

100.00% 7.5% 58.56% 41.44%

I have always voted for this party 100.00% 15.1% 63.83% 36.17%

Other 100.00% 4.9% 61.43% 38.57%

More than one answer 100.00% 1.9% 70.12% 29.88%

VMRO-DPMNE 100.00% 29.4% 65.80% 34.20%

SDSM 100.00% 33.6% 58.20% 41.80%

DA 100.00% 4.3% 62.02% 37.98%

PDP 100.00% 7.2% 69.97% 30.03%

DPA 100.00% 11.5% 71.58% 28.42%

LDP 100.00% 2.4% 66.83% 33.17%

SPM 100.00% 1.2% 77.88% 22.12%

Other 100.00% 1.9% 75.95% 24.05%

DK 100.00% 8.2% 55.75% 44.25%

Which political party in 1998 have you voted for?

More than one answer 100.00% .3% 68.00% 32.00%

Gotten better 100.00% 25.7% 66.40% 33.60%

Stayed the same 100.00% 34.5% 61.40% 38.60%

Gotten worse 100.00% 39.6% 63.81% 36.19%

Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or ...

More than one answer 100.00% .3% 57.14% 42.86%

Establishing peace and stability 100.00% 39.7% 63.24% 36.76%

Economic development 100.00% 15.7% 68.49% 31.51%

Creating new jobs 100.00% 11.8% 56.32% 43.68%

Improving Inter-ethnic relations

100.00% 1.6% 63.50% 36.50%

Fighting Corruption 100.00% 3.3% 68.77% 31.23%

Implementing the Framework Agreement

100.00% 5.0% 73.47% 26.53%

Education 100.00% 1.4% 53.23% 46.77%

Reducing Poverty 100.00% 11.3% 59.15% 40.85%

Other 100.00% .6% 70.91% 29.09%

DK 100.00% 1.1% 69.39% 30.61%

What should the new government's first priority be?

More than one answer 100.00% 8.4% 65.28% 34.72%

Male 63.67% 63.7% 63.67% Gender

Female 36.33% 36.3% 36.33%

Page 58: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

58

18 – 24 yrs. 100.00% 20.8% 60.26% 39.74%

25 – 34 yrs. 100.00% 23.8% 63.71% 36.29%

35 – 44 yrs. 100.00% 25.6% 63.61% 36.39%

45 – 54 yrs. 100.00% 16.6% 61.98% 38.02%

55 – 64 yrs. 100.00% 8.7% 67.89% 32.11%

65+ yrs. 100.00% 4.3% 73.97% 26.03%

Age

More than one answer 100.00% .2% 50.00% 50.00%

0 – 3,000 den. 100.00% 17.5% 66.39% 33.61%

3,001 – 6,000 den. 100.00% 17.6% 64.73% 35.27%

6,001 – 12,000 den. 100.00% 27.6% 61.82% 38.18%

12,001 – 18,000 den. 100.00% 17.4% 62.73% 37.27%

18,001 – 24,000 den. 100.00% 9.3% 62.48% 37.52%

24,000+ den. 100.00% 10.5% 65.12% 34.88%

Total monthly household income

More than one answer 100.00% .2% 46.67% 53.33%

Macedonian 100.00% 71.1% 60.95% 39.05%

Albanian 100.00% 21.5% 70.28% 29.72%

Turk 100.00% 2.6% 79.39% 20.61%

Roma 100.00% 1.2% 62.50% 37.50%

Serb 100.00% 1.6% 64.03% 35.97%

Vlach 100.00% .6% 59.18% 40.82%

Other 100.00% 1.2% 73.58% 26.42%

Nationality

More than one answer 100.00% .1% 83.33% 16.67%

Up to elementary 100.00% 5.4% 61.17% 38.83%

Elementary 100.00% 13.9% 65.13% 34.87%

Secondary 100.00% 49.7% 64.39% 35.61%

Higher 100.00% 30.6% 61.84% 38.16%

Education

More than one answer 100.00% .3% 66.67% 33.33%

Rural 100.00% 50.4% 68.33% 31.67% RURAL/URBAN

Urban 100.00% 49.6% 58.94% 41.06%

up to 1000 inh 100.00% 16.4% 67.73% 32.27%

1001-3000 inh 100.00% 20.0% 67.35% 32.65%

3001-5000 inh 100.00% 10.4% 72.09% 27.91%

5001-10000 inh 100.00% 4.6% 64.69% 35.31%

10001-20000 inh 100.00% 1.3% 55.56% 44.44%

SETTLEMENT TYPE

20001-50000 inh 100.00% 16.7% 59.16% 40.84%

Page 59: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

59

50001-100000 inh 100.00% 7.1% 61.65% 38.35%

Skopie 100.00% 23.5% 58.02% 41.98%

Page 60: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

60

Age

Subgroup Percentages Age

SUBGROUP

18 –

24 yrs. 25 –

34 yrs. 35 –

44 yrs. 45 –

54 yrs. 55 –

64 yrs. 65+ yrs.

More than one

answer

Overall Distribution 100.00% 100.0

% 20.30

% 23.53

% 25.79

% 16.66

% 8.92% 4.59% .20%

Time interval- 7:00 – 10:00

100.00% 21.9% 13.73

% 18.80

% 26.62

% 19.85

% 12.78

% 7.97% .25%

Time interval- 10:01 – 13:00

100.00% 32.3% 19.77

% 23.68

% 25.52

% 16.57

% 9.39% 4.93% .14%

Time interval- 13:01 – 16:00

100.00% 23.1% 26.16

% 25.44

% 23.44

% 14.86

% 7.10% 2.81% .19%

Wave Number

Time interval- 16:01 – 19:00

100.00% 22.7% 21.45

% 25.94

% 27.78

% 15.56

% 6.38% 2.66% .24%

Electoral district No.1 100.00% 17.9%

19.37%

19.00%

21.65%

22.08%

12.79% 4.86% .25%

Electoral district No.2

100.00% 15.7% 23.97

% 21.52

% 25.23

% 16.28

% 7.62% 5.17% .21%

Electoral district No.3 100.00% 16.1%

18.43%

26.21%

27.51%

15.70% 7.58% 4.30% .27%

Electoral district No.4 100.00% 16.7%

16.89%

24.51%

26.41%

17.94% 8.67% 5.45% .13%

Electoral district No.5

100.00% 16.2% 17.20

% 25.52

% 28.10

% 14.90

% 9.14% 4.81% .34%

Electoral district

Electoral district No.6 100.00% 17.4%

25.85%

24.72%

26.23%

12.77% 7.40% 3.03%

Together for You 100.00% 23.5%

19.57%

27.04%

26.00%

15.54% 7.12% 4.58% .15%

Together for Macedonia

100.00% 39.7% 17.78

% 21.11

% 25.25

% 19.81

% 10.85

% 5.00% .21%

DUI 100.00% 12.7% 28.26

% 25.23

% 24.86

% 12.11

% 6.42% 3.03% .09%

Recoded Vote

DPA 100.00% 5.0% 29.17

% 30.09

% 26.85

% 7.87% 3.47% 2.31% .23%

Page 61: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

61

PDP 100.00% 2.4% 16.59

% 23.41

% 33.66

% 15.12

% 5.85% 5.37%

SPM 100.00% 2.0% 12.64

% 19.54

% 25.86

% 22.41

% 13.22

% 6.32%

NDP 100.00% 1.5% 29.23

% 27.69

% 24.62

% 10.00

% 7.69% .77%

Other 100.00% 13.1% 17.77

% 21.43

% 27.32

% 17.86

% 9.64% 5.63% .36%

Today 100.00% 16.4% 26.45

% 23.72

% 23.72

% 13.09

% 7.23% 5.66% .14%

Within the last week

100.00% 5.1% 21.44

% 26.04

% 23.19

% 14.22

% 10.07

% 4.60% .44%

In the last month 100.00% 5.7%

24.76%

23.98%

22.42%

15.40% 8.77% 4.68%

1 to 3 months ago 100.00% 5.9%

24.29%

21.47%

27.87%

15.25% 8.29% 2.64% .19%

More than 3 months ago

100.00% 15.3% 19.99

% 22.68

% 27.57

% 17.43

% 8.10% 4.16% .07%

Always vote for the same party

100.00% 51.1% 17.69

% 23.94

% 26.22

% 18.00

% 9.60% 4.31% .24%

When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates

More than one answer 100.00% .4% 6.25%

15.63%

21.88%

25.00%

15.63%

12.50% 3.13%

Trust this party the most

100.00% 46.1% 20.11

% 23.23

% 25.44

% 16.94

% 9.26% 4.81% .22%

Party leader 100.00% 10.9% 25.68

% 24.74

% 24.63

% 13.36

% 7.62% 3.97%

Party's stance on the issues

100.00% 8.6% 17.76

% 23.16

% 25.39

% 20.92

% 9.61% 3.03% .13%

Candidate leading the list

100.00% 4.7% 20.86

% 24.22

% 27.58

% 15.35

% 9.11% 2.88%

They are not as bad as other parties

100.00% 7.5% 21.57

% 22.78

% 26.70

% 18.85

% 6.33% 3.62% .15%

I have always voted for this party

100.00% 15.3% 17.21

% 24.11

% 27.89

% 16.54

% 8.83% 5.12% .30%

Other 100.00% 4.8% 31.46

% 28.87

% 23.24

% 7.51% 5.63% 3.29%

Reasons that describe why you voted for that list

More than one answer

100.00% 2.1% 10.38

% 16.39

% 26.23

% 23.50

% 13.11

% 9.84% .55%

Page 62: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

62

VMRO-DPMNE 100.00% 29.6%

16.33%

27.71%

27.55%

15.40% 8.67% 4.10% .23%

SDSM 100.00% 33.7% 14.31

% 20.33

% 26.68

% 21.24

% 11.15

% 6.05% .24%

DA 100.00% 4.4% 9.87% 20.78

% 26.75

% 25.71

% 12.99

% 3.90%

PDP 100.00% 7.0% 19.02

% 23.90

% 30.89

% 14.47

% 6.83% 4.72% .16%

DPA 100.00% 11.4% 23.65

% 30.16

% 26.65

% 11.02

% 6.21% 2.20% .10%

LDP 100.00% 2.4% 17.96

% 27.18

% 26.70

% 19.42

% 4.37% 4.37%

SPM 100.00% 1.3% 9.65% 15.79

% 28.95

% 26.32

% 9.65% 9.65%

Other 100.00% 1.9% 20.00

% 23.03

% 26.06

% 13.94

% 15.15

% 1.82%

DK 100.00% 8.1% 63.07

% 15.91

% 11.93

% 4.83% 2.84% 1.28% .14%

Which political party in 1998 have you voted for?

More than one answer 100.00% .3%

14.81% 3.70%

29.63%

25.93%

11.11%

11.11% 3.70%

Gotten better 100.00% 25.8%

24.30%

27.33%

25.28%

12.71% 6.24% 3.79% .36%

Stayed the same

100.00% 34.3% 22.56

% 25.14

% 25.91

% 14.03

% 8.06% 4.16% .13%

Gotten worse 100.00% 39.5%

16.24%

20.38%

26.07%

21.14%

11.14% 4.90% .12%

Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or ...

More than one answer 100.00% .3%

21.43%

17.86%

14.29%

21.43%

14.29% 7.14% 3.57%

Establishing peace and stability

100.00% 40.0% 20.99

% 22.70

% 26.49

% 16.09

% 8.91% 4.60% .22%

Economic development

100.00% 15.6% 17.29

% 23.85

% 25.79

% 19.52

% 9.58% 3.89% .07%

Creating new jobs 100.00% 11.7%

26.17%

24.93%

21.96%

16.59% 6.42% 3.64% .29%

Improving Inter-ethnic relations

100.00% 1.6% 15.49

% 30.99

% 16.90

% 18.31

% 11.27

% 6.34% .70%

Fighting Corruption 100.00% 3.2%

18.75%

22.22%

29.51%

14.58%

10.42% 4.51%

Implementing the Framework Agreement

100.00% 4.9% 19.22

% 28.15

% 33.64

% 10.07

% 6.41% 2.52%

What should the new government's first priority be?

Education 100.00% 1.4% 40.32

% 21.77

% 20.16

% 10.48

% 5.65% 1.61%

Page 63: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

63

Reducing Poverty 100.00% 11.2%

20.64%

24.75%

26.15%

16.63% 7.72% 3.91% .20%

Other 100.00% .7% 30.51

% 27.12

% 22.03

% 13.56

% 3.39% 3.39%

DK 100.00% 1.2% 42.45

% 17.92

% 14.15

% 9.43% 7.55% 8.49%

More than one answer 100.00% 8.6%

10.14%

20.81%

25.62%

21.07%

13.78% 8.19% .39%

Male 100.00% 63.5% 19.77

% 23.94

% 25.68

% 16.22

% 9.27% 4.99% .13% Gender

Female 100.00% 36.5% 22.65

% 23.67

% 25.51

% 17.28

% 7.61% 3.05% .22%

18 – 24 yrs. 20.30% 20.3% 20.30

%

25 – 34 yrs. 23.53% 23.5% 23.53

%

35 – 44 yrs. 25.79% 25.8% 25.79

%

45 – 54 yrs. 16.66% 16.7% 16.66

%

55 – 64 yrs. 8.92% 8.9% 8.92%

65+ yrs. 4.59% 4.6% 4.59%

Age

More than one answer

.20% .2% .20%

0 – 3,000 den. 100.00% 17.6%

24.93%

27.33%

23.01%

12.43% 7.58% 4.52% .20%

3,001 – 6,000 den. 100.00% 17.7%

19.38%

21.89%

26.52%

16.14% 9.99% 5.82% .26%

6,001 – 12,000 den.

100.00% 27.6% 16.23

% 23.64

% 30.00

% 16.65

% 8.39% 4.96% .13%

12,001 – 18,000 den. 100.00% 17.3%

18.35%

21.32%

25.30%

20.45%

10.12% 4.39% .07%

18,001 – 24,000 den. 100.00% 9.1%

22.44%

21.03%

23.59%

19.74%

10.13% 3.08%

24,000+ den. 100.00% 10.4% 22.89

% 27.51

% 20.97

% 17.93

% 8.00% 2.71%

Total monthly household income

More than one answer 100.00% .2% 5.88%

35.29%

17.65%

11.76%

11.76% 5.88%

11.76%

Macedonian 100.00% 71.3% 18.91

% 22.90

% 25.25

% 18.18

% 9.78% 4.81% .17%

Albanian 100.00% 21.3% 25.74

% 26.89

% 26.89

% 11.38

% 6.06% 2.92% .10%

Nationality

Turk 100.00% 2.7% 24.27

% 22.18

% 30.13

% 11.72

% 8.37% 3.35%

Page 64: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

64

Roma 100.00% 1.1% 17.48

% 23.30

% 33.01

% 16.50

% 4.85% 4.85%

Serb 100.00% 1.7% 13.42

% 14.09

% 29.53

% 22.15

% 13.42

% 7.38%

Vlach 100.00% .6% 21.15

% 23.08

% 23.08

% 15.38

% 7.69% 9.62%

Other 100.00% 1.2% 11.93

% 18.35

% 24.77

% 23.85

% 5.50% 15.60

%

More than one answer 100.00% .2%

18.75%

25.00%

31.25% 6.25%

18.75%

Up to elementary

100.00% 5.6% 16.02

% 18.86

% 15.21

% 14.00

% 15.42

% 20.28

% .20%

Elementary 100.00% 14.0% 13.64

% 21.71

% 25.26

% 17.76

% 13.80

% 7.75% .08%

Secondary 100.00% 49.9% 20.43

% 25.72

% 28.45

% 16.35

% 6.62% 2.33% .11%

Higher 100.00% 30.2% 24.35

% 21.88

% 23.26

% 17.33

% 9.15% 3.85% .19%

Education

More than one answer 100.00% .3%

19.35%

19.35%

29.03%

12.90% 6.45% 3.23% 9.68%

Rural 100.00% 50.3% 21.86

% 27.05

% 26.64

% 13.12

% 6.99% 4.10% .24% RURAL/URBAN

Urban 100.00% 49.7% 18.73

% 19.96

% 24.94

% 20.25

% 10.88

% 5.09% .15%

up to 1000 inh 100.00% 16.5%

18.75%

26.46%

27.33%

13.50% 8.18% 5.45% .33%

1001-3000 inh 100.00% 20.1%

20.91%

26.55%

26.93%

13.85% 7.12% 4.43% .22%

3001-5000 inh

100.00% 10.3% 29.01

% 29.34

% 24.30

% 10.81

% 4.28% 2.03% .21%

5001-10000 inh 100.00% 4.6%

23.63%

23.63%

26.97%

14.56% 8.11% 2.86% .24%

10001-20000 inh 100.00% 1.3%

16.24%

21.37%

30.77%

20.51% 6.84% 4.27%

20001-50000 inh

100.00% 16.4% 15.91

% 22.62

% 28.19

% 18.79

% 10.27

% 4.16% .07%

50001-100000 inh 100.00% 7.0%

20.44%

20.44%

24.02%

17.94%

10.30% 6.86%

SETTLEMENT TYPE

Skopie 100.00% 23.8% 19.67

% 18.10

% 22.80

% 22.11

% 11.88

% 5.20% .23%

Page 65: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

65

Income

Subgroup Percentages Total monthly household income

SUBGROUP

0 –

3,000 den.

3,001 –

6,000 den.

6,001 –

12,000 den.

12,001 –

18,000 den.

18,001 –

24,000 den.

24,000+ den.

More than one

answer

Overall Distribution 100.00% 100.0

% 17.76

% 17.73

% 27.66

% 17.24

% 9.09% 10.32% .21%

Time interval- 7:00 – 10:00

100.00% 22.0% 16.74

% 16.53

% 26.94

% 19.04

% 9.68% 10.83% .26%

Time interval- 10:01 – 13:00

100.00% 32.1% 16.52

% 16.70

% 27.91

% 17.63

% 9.92% 11.14% .18%

Time interval- 13:01 – 16:00

100.00% 23.2% 19.36

% 18.27

% 27.87

% 16.68

% 8.42% 9.16% .25%

Wave Number

Time interval- 16:01 – 19:00

100.00% 22.8% 18.89

% 19.80

% 27.78

% 15.51

% 8.03% 9.85% .15%

Electoral district No.1 100.00% 17.9% 9.18%

11.49%

22.27%

20.60%

14.83% 21.44% .19%

Electoral district No.2

100.00% 15.9% 23.34

% 13.44

% 24.49

% 17.70

% 8.67% 12.36%

Electoral district No.3 100.00% 16.2%

17.28%

22.76%

28.38%

17.21% 7.33% 6.76% .28%

Electoral district No.4 100.00% 16.8%

19.02%

20.79%

32.42%

15.53% 6.50% 5.47% .27%

Electoral district No.5

100.00% 16.2% 16.34

% 15.98

% 30.69

% 18.46

% 10.40

% 7.92% .21%

Electoral district

Electoral district No.6 100.00% 17.0%

22.18%

22.18%

27.99%

13.79% 6.42% 7.17% .27%

Together for You 100.00% 23.3%

12.42%

17.43%

26.77%

19.42%

10.23% 13.41% .31%

Together for Macedonia

100.00% 39.9% 13.05

% 15.77

% 29.25

% 19.18

% 11.38

% 11.22% .15%

DUI 100.00% 12.4% 33.43

% 23.47

% 25.84

% 9.57% 2.96% 4.64% .10%

Recoded Vote

DPA 100.00% 5.1% 28.78

% 21.10

% 28.30

% 11.03

% 4.80% 6.00%

Page 66: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

66

PDP 100.00% 2.5% 44.88

% 20.98

% 20.98

% 5.37% 2.44% 5.37%

SPM 100.00% 2.1% 18.60

% 20.93

% 29.07

% 16.86

% 9.88% 4.65%

NDP 100.00% 1.5% 41.80

% 17.21

% 24.59

% 8.20% 4.10% 4.10%

Other 100.00% 13.2% 15.48

% 17.79

% 28.29

% 18.25

% 9.31% 10.51% .37%

Today 100.00% 16.2% 26.36

% 20.40

% 24.28

% 13.15

% 6.11% 9.48% .22%

Within the last week

100.00% 5.2% 19.86

% 21.90

% 27.54

% 13.09

% 9.26% 8.35%

In the last month 100.00% 5.8%

23.23%

18.99%

30.30%

12.73% 6.87% 7.68% .20%

1 to 3 months ago 100.00% 6.1%

19.81%

21.52%

30.67%

15.81% 5.71% 6.10% .38%

More than 3 months ago

100.00% 15.4% 14.36

% 18.22

% 26.53

% 18.07

% 10.58

% 12.17% .08%

Always vote for the same party

100.00% 51.0% 14.91

% 15.67

% 28.45

% 19.32

% 10.28

% 11.14% .23%

When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates

More than one answer 100.00% .3%

21.43%

17.86%

21.43%

21.43% 14.29% 3.57%

Trust this party the most

100.00% 45.9% 18.50

% 18.78

% 27.88

% 16.35

% 8.66% 9.71% .13%

Party leader 100.00% 10.9% 22.58

% 18.92

% 28.28

% 14.73

% 7.10% 8.28% .11%

Party's stance on the issues

100.00% 8.7% 11.26

% 17.23

% 27.82

% 18.32

% 12.08

% 13.03% .27%

Candidate leading the list

100.00% 4.7% 15.79

% 14.29

% 28.32

% 20.30

% 9.02% 12.03% .25%

They are not as bad as other parties

100.00% 7.6% 16.82

% 14.64

% 27.26

% 19.00

% 10.44

% 11.37% .47%

I have always voted for this party

100.00% 15.3% 18.22

% 17.37

% 27.21

% 18.45

% 9.30% 9.22% .23%

Other 100.00% 4.8% 13.59

% 16.50

% 21.60

% 19.90

% 10.44

% 17.48% .49%

Reasons that describe why you voted for that list

More than one answer

100.00% 2.0% 13.79

% 16.67

% 33.33

% 17.82

% 7.47% 10.34% .57%

Page 67: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

67

VMRO-DPMNE 100.00% 29.4%

13.99%

17.54%

27.50%

18.75% 9.35% 12.66% .20%

SDSM 100.00% 34.0% 14.20

% 16.89

% 29.23

% 19.13

% 10.00

% 10.28% .28%

DA 100.00% 4.5% 9.57% 11.44

% 32.71

% 19.68

% 14.10

% 12.23% .27%

PDP 100.00% 7.1% 36.61

% 22.80

% 23.13

% 8.49% 3.99% 4.99%

DPA 100.00% 11.4% 28.30

% 22.68

% 28.72

% 10.93

% 4.99% 4.27% .10%

LDP 100.00% 2.4% 6.03% 12.56

% 29.65

% 23.12

% 14.57

% 14.07%

SPM 100.00% 1.3% 16.96

% 18.75

% 29.46

% 16.96

% 12.50

% 5.36%

Other 100.00% 1.8% 21.43

% 14.29

% 23.38

% 16.23

% 8.44% 16.23%

DK 100.00% 7.8% 21.37

% 14.20

% 24.27

% 17.86

% 10.23

% 12.06%

Which political party in 1998 have you voted for?

More than one answer 100.00% .3% 4.00%

36.00%

32.00% 4.00% 4.00% 16.00% 4.00%

Gotten better 100.00% 25.8%

14.93%

15.30%

25.42%

18.16%

11.51% 14.51% .18%

Stayed the same

100.00% 34.4% 18.04

% 18.35

% 27.96

% 17.42

% 8.30% 9.78% .14%

Gotten worse 100.00% 39.5%

18.89%

18.53%

29.03%

16.54% 8.45% 8.36% .21%

Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or ...

More than one answer 100.00% .3%

14.29%

14.29%

39.29%

10.71%

10.71% 7.14% 3.57%

Establishing peace and stability

100.00% 39.4% 19.23

% 17.22

% 27.31

% 17.10

% 9.05% 9.94% .15%

Economic development

100.00% 16.0% 10.40

% 16.95

% 25.38

% 19.27

% 12.65

% 15.20% .15%

Creating new jobs

100.00% 11.8% 19.72

% 19.23

% 29.93

% 15.56

% 7.83% 7.63% .10%

Improving Inter-ethnic relations

100.00% 1.6% 26.43

% 20.71

% 20.71

% 16.43

% 9.29% 5.00% 1.43%

Fighting Corruption 100.00% 3.3%

15.85%

19.37%

24.65%

17.96% 8.10% 14.08%

What should the new government's first priority be?

Implementing the Framework Agreement

100.00% 4.9% 27.03

% 20.57

% 33.01

% 10.53

% 4.55% 4.07% .24%

Page 68: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

68

Education 100.00% 1.4% 21.49

% 17.36

% 32.23

% 13.22

% 7.44% 8.26%

Reducing Poverty 100.00% 11.4%

17.97%

18.38%

31.31%

18.48% 6.57% 7.19% .10%

Other 100.00% .6% 9.09% 14.55

% 25.45

% 12.73

% 12.73

% 23.64% 1.82%

DK 100.00% 1.2% 24.51

% 20.59

% 14.71

% 12.75

% 10.78

% 16.67%

More than one answer 100.00% 8.4%

11.91%

15.79%

27.84%

20.08%

10.80% 12.88% .69%

Male 100.00% 63.7% 18.23

% 17.84

% 26.79

% 17.14

% 9.13% 10.74% .13%

Gender

Female 100.00% 36.3% 16.17

% 17.04

% 28.99

% 17.84

% 9.61% 10.08% .27%

18 – 24 yrs. 100.00% 19.9% 22.03

% 17.22

% 22.50

% 15.98

% 10.28

% 11.93% .06%

25 – 34 yrs. 100.00% 23.8% 20.25

% 16.31

% 27.49

% 15.57

% 8.08% 12.02% .30%

35 – 44 yrs. 100.00% 25.8% 15.71

% 18.20

% 32.14

% 17.02

% 8.35% 8.44% .14%

45 – 54 yrs. 100.00% 16.9% 12.97

% 16.92

% 27.25

% 21.01

% 10.68

% 11.03% .14%

55 – 64 yrs. 100.00% 9.0% 14.90

% 19.74

% 25.88

% 19.61

% 10.33

% 9.28% .26%

65+ yrs. 100.00% 4.5% 17.57

% 22.74

% 30.23

% 16.80

% 6.20% 6.20% .26%

Age

More than one answer 100.00% .2%

23.08%

30.77%

23.08% 7.69%

15.38%

0 – 3,000 den.

17.76% 17.8% 17.76

%

3,001 – 6,000 den. 17.73% 17.7%

17.73%

6,001 – 12,000 den. 27.66% 27.7%

27.66%

12,001 – 18,000 den.

17.24% 17.2% 17.24

%

18,001 – 24,000 den. 9.09% 9.1% 9.09%

24,000+ den. 10.32% 10.3% 10.32%

Total monthly household income

More than one answer .21% .2% .21%

Nationality Macedonian 100.00% 71.5% 12.76

% 16.42

% 28.44

% 19.57

% 10.68

% 11.97% .16%

Page 69: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

69

Albanian 100.00% 21.1% 32.53

% 22.44

% 26.44

% 9.93% 4.39% 4.17% .11%

Turk 100.00% 2.5% 29.22

% 16.89

% 26.94

% 11.87

% 4.57% 9.59% .91%

Roma 100.00% 1.1% 48.48

% 25.25

% 15.15

% 3.03% 8.08%

Serb 100.00% 1.7% 7.43% 12.84

% 22.97

% 26.35

% 14.86

% 15.54%

Vlach 100.00% .6% 7.69% 5.77% 28.85

% 21.15

% 15.38

% 21.15%

Other 100.00% 1.2% 14.81

% 24.07

% 29.63

% 15.74

% 5.56% 10.19%

More than one answer 100.00% .2%

11.76%

17.65%

11.76%

23.53%

11.76%

23.53%

Up to elementary 100.00% 5.4%

50.22%

26.19%

14.72% 4.33% 1.73% 2.16% .65%

Elementary 100.00% 13.9% 36.03

% 30.22

% 21.21

% 6.57% 2.61% 3.28% .08%

Secondary 100.00% 50.0% 15.12

% 19.34

% 33.01

% 17.43

% 7.63% 7.30% .16%

Higher 100.00% 30.4% 7.32% 7.59% 24.35

% 24.46

% 15.99

% 20.17% .12%

Education

More than one answer

100.00% .3% 20.69

% 31.03

% 20.69

% 3.45% 6.90% 3.45%

13.79%

Rural 100.00% 49.9% 25.44

% 23.19

% 27.89

% 12.24

% 5.51% 5.51% .23% RURAL/URBAN

Urban 100.00% 50.1% 10.13

% 12.31

% 27.43

% 22.20

% 12.65

% 15.10% .18%

up to 1000 inh

100.00% 16.2% 23.20

% 25.25

% 28.01

% 10.82

% 6.36% 6.15% .21%

1001-3000 inh 100.00% 19.8%

27.67%

22.27%

28.55%

12.09% 4.71% 4.42% .29%

3001-5000 inh 100.00% 10.4%

27.86%

23.13%

22.58%

13.88% 5.18% 7.27% .11%

5001-10000 inh

100.00% 4.6% 19.10

% 18.09

% 34.17

% 17.09

% 7.79% 3.52% .25%

10001-20000 inh 100.00% 1.3% 5.13%

11.97%

37.61%

26.50%

11.11% 7.69%

20001-50000 inh 100.00% 16.5%

11.88%

16.12%

30.79%

21.40%

10.42% 9.10% .28%

50001-100000 inh

100.00% 7.1% 11.77

% 13.87

% 32.10

% 22.74

% 10.16

% 9.19% .16%

SETTLEMENT TYPE

Skopie 100.00% 24.0% 7.81% 9.06% 23.62

% 22.28

% 15.14

% 21.95% .14%

Page 70: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

70

Nationality

Subgroup Percentages Nationality

SUBGROUP

Macedoni

an Albani

an Turk

Roma

Serb Vlac

h Othe

r

More than one

answer

Overall Distribution 100.00% 100.0

% 71.15% 21.33% 2.66% 1.21

% 1.68% .57% 1.19

% .19%

Time interval- 7:00 – 10:00

100.00% 21.9% 72.35% 20.69% 1.78% .74% 2.52% 1.04

% .79% .10%

Time interval- 10:01 – 13:00

100.00% 32.1% 70.77% 22.29% 2.73% .81% 1.79% .44% 1.11

% .07%

Time interval- 13:01 – 16:00

100.00% 23.2% 67.85% 24.07% 2.71% 1.92

% 1.36% .47%

1.36%

.28%

Wave Number

Time interval- 16:01 – 19:00

100.00% 22.8% 73.91% 17.82% 3.37% 1.52

% 1.05% .43% 1.52

% .38%

Electoral district No.1

100.00% 17.8% 77.90% 14.03% .55% .36% 3.83% 1.34

% 1.76

% .24%

Electoral district No.2

100.00% 15.7% 66.00% 27.17% 1.59% 1.03

% 2.90% .28% .90% .14%

Electoral district No.3

100.00% 16.1% 87.36% 5.18% 1.08% 3.70

% 1.48% .13% .74% .34%

Electoral district No.4

100.00% 16.8% 96.71% .39% 1.22% .58% .32% .26% .39% .13%

Electoral district No.5

100.00% 16.2% 74.46% 19.03% 1.81% .40% .60% 1.41

% 2.14

% .13%

Electoral district

Electoral district No.6

100.00% 17.4% 26.14% 60.86% 9.46% 1.31

% .87% 1.18

% .19%

Recoded Vote

Together for You 100.00% 23.4% 96.01% .59% .99% .89% .25% .54% .64% .10%

Page 71: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

71

Together for Macedonia

100.00% 39.7% 89.94% .55% 3.36% .64% 2.96% .75% 1.59

% .20%

DUI 100.00% 12.8% 1.62% 93.25% 4.32% .18% .54% .09%

DPA 100.00% 5.1% 2.26% 94.36% 1.81% .90% .45% .23%

PDP 100.00% 2.4% 4.83% 90.82% 1.45% .48% 1.93

% .48%

SPM 100.00% 2.0% 93.14% .57% 3.43% 1.14

% 1.14

% .57%

NDP 100.00% 1.5% 2.29% 95.42% 1.53% .76%

Other 100.00% 13.1% 79.51% 8.71% 1.93% 5.01

% 2.02% .79%

1.93%

.09%

Today 100.00% 16.5% 62.00% 28.93% 3.47% 1.73

% 1.53% .47% 1.60

% .27%

Within the last week 100.00% 5.1% 60.74% 30.80% 4.77%

1.30% .43%

1.95%

In the last month

100.00% 5.7% 44.23% 46.54% 4.04% 1.35

% 1.15% .58%

1.92%

.19%

1 to 3 months ago

100.00% 6.0% 38.97% 53.86% 4.78% .74% .55% .55% .55%

More than 3 months ago

100.00% 15.3% 63.56% 29.15% 1.80% 1.15

% 2.16% .87% 1.23

% .07%

Always vote for the same party

100.00% 51.0% 84.25% 9.24% 1.97% 1.00

% 1.84% .65% .93% .13%

When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates

More than one answer

100.00% .4% 84.38% 6.25% 3.13% 6.25%

Trust this party the most

100.00% 46.2% 69.75% 23.83% 2.42% .94% 1.48% .58% .90% .10%

Party leader 100.00% 10.9% 45.32% 48.20% 2.26%

1.54% .62% .41%

1.54% .10%

Party's stance on the issues

100.00% 8.6% 76.21% 14.77% 3.40% .78% 1.83% .52% 2.09

% .39%

Candidate leading the list

100.00% 4.6% 68.19% 23.13% 2.65% 2.65

% 1.45% .72% .96% .24%

Reasons that describe why you voted for that list

They are not as bad as other parties

100.00% 7.5% 79.16% 13.04% 2.25% .75% 3.00% .45% 1.35

%

Page 72: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

72

I have always voted for this party

100.00% 15.3% 82.74% 10.02% 2.85% 1.02

% 1.68% .44% .95% .29%

Other 100.00% 4.8% 84.26% 6.25% 2.78% .93% 2.78% 1.16

% 1.85

%

More than one answer

100.00% 2.1% 79.58% 6.28% 4.19% 3.14

% 4.19% .52% 1.05

% 1.05%

VMRO-DPMNE 100.00% 29.5% 94.76% 1.38% 1.15%

1.11% .38% .34% .80% .08%

SDSM 100.00% 33.7% 88.77% .97% 2.45% 1.54

% 3.38% .90% 1.78

% .20%

DA 100.00% 4.4% 87.11% 4.90% 2.84% .52% 1.55% .77% 2.32

%

PDP 100.00% 7.0% 3.21% 93.42% 2.41% .32% .32% .32%

DPA 100.00% 11.5% 2.06% 94.22% 2.94% .69% .10%

LDP 100.00% 2.4% 92.45% 2.36% 3.30% 1.42% .47%

SPM 100.00% 1.3% 82.76% 3.45% .86% 1.72

% 6.03% 1.72

% 2.59

% .86%

Other 100.00% 1.9% 51.20% 22.29% 15.06

% 4.82

% 3.61% 3.01

%

DK 100.00% 8.0% 59.86% 29.93% 3.69% 1.56

% 1.84%

1.28%

1.70%

.14%

Which political party in 1998 have you voted for?

More than one answer

100.00% .3% 78.57% 10.71% 3.57

% 3.57% 3.57%

Gotten better 100.00% 25.8% 75.39% 19.64% 2.03% .97% .97% .48% .44% .09%

Stayed the same 100.00% 34.2% 63.76% 29.22% 2.76%

1.03% 1.23% .50%

1.36% .13%

Gotten worse

100.00% 39.6% 74.78% 16.05% 2.79% 1.44

% 2.53% .66%

1.55%

.20%

Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or ...

More than one answer

100.00% .3% 62.07% 13.79% 6.90% 3.45

% 10.34

% 3.45%

Establishing peace and stability

100.00% 39.9% 72.22% 20.82% 2.58% 1.03

% 1.19% .55% 1.47

% .14%

Economic development

100.00% 15.6% 73.12% 20.00% 2.06% .92% 1.91% .78% 1.13

% .07%

What should the new government's first priority be?

Creating new jobs

100.00% 11.7% 80.55% 12.14% 1.90% 1.52

% 2.28% .66% .85% .09%

Page 73: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

73

Improving Inter-ethnic relations

100.00% 1.6% 46.21% 37.93% 9.66% 2.07% 2.76

% 1.38%

Fighting Corruption 100.00% 3.2% 67.59% 24.83% 3.45% 2.07%

1.72% .34%

Implementing the Framework Agreement

100.00% 4.9% 7.01% 89.14% 2.94% .45% .23% .23%

Education 100.00% 1.4% 36.72% 59.38% .78% 1.56% .78% .78%

Reducing Poverty

100.00% 11.2% 86.34% 7.13% 1.39% 1.49

% 1.98% .59% .89% .20%

Other 100.00% .7% 77.05% 16.39% 4.92% 1.64%

DK 100.00% 1.2% 66.67% 15.74% 4.63% 8.33

% .93%

1.85%

1.85%

More than one answer

100.00% 8.7% 80.56% 8.51% 4.70% 1.52

% 2.54% .38% 1.14

% .64%

Male 100.00% 63.7% 68.06% 23.74% 3.28% 1.18

% 1.62% .53% 1.42

% .18% Gender

Female 100.00% 36.3% 76.48% 17.60% 1.50% 1.24

% 1.59% .64% .89% .06%

18 – 24 yrs. 100.00% 20.3% 66.45% 26.98% 3.17% .99% 1.09% .60% .71%

25 – 34 yrs. 100.00% 23.5% 69.41% 24.32% 2.50% 1.13

% .99% .57% .94% .14%

35 – 44 yrs. 100.00% 25.9% 69.60% 22.11% 3.09% 1.46

% 1.89% .52%

1.16%

.17%

45 – 54 yrs. 100.00% 16.7% 77.70% 14.51% 1.86% 1.13

% 2.20% .53% 1.73

% .33%

55 – 64 yrs. 100.00% 8.9% 78.50% 14.50% 2.50% .63% 2.50% .50% .75% .13%

65+ yrs. 100.00% 4.6% 75.18% 13.63% 1.95% 1.22

% 2.68% 1.22

% 4.14

%

Age

More than one answer

100.00% .2% 68.75% 12.50% 18.75

%

0 – 3,000 den. 100.00% 17.7% 51.67% 38.83% 4.19%

3.14% .72% .26%

1.05% .13%

3,001 – 6,000 den.

100.00% 17.8% 66.04% 26.61% 2.41% 1.63

% 1.24% .20%

1.69%

.20%

6,001 – 12,000 den. 100.00% 27.7% 73.34% 20.11% 2.46% .63% 1.42% .63%

1.34% .08%

12,001 – 18,000 den. 100.00% 17.2% 81.15% 12.14% 1.74% .20% 2.62% .74%

1.14% .27%

Total monthly household income

18,001 – 24,000 den.

100.00% 9.1% 83.76% 10.15% 1.27% 2.79% 1.02

% .76% .25%

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24,000+ den. 100.00% 10.3% 83.15% 8.54% 2.36% .90% 2.58%

1.24%

1.24%

More than one answer

100.00% .2% 55.56% 11.11% 11.11

% 22.22

%

Macedonian 71.15% 71.2% 71.15%

Albanian 21.33% 21.3% 21.33%

Turk 2.66% 2.7% 2.66%

Roma 1.21% 1.2% 1.21

%

Serb 1.68% 1.7% 1.68%

Vlach .57% .6% .57%

Other 1.19% 1.2% 1.19

%

Nationality

More than one answer

.19% .2% .19%

Up to elementary 100.00% 5.6% 57.77% 29.48% 4.78%

6.18% .20% .60%

1.00%

Elementary 100.00% 14.0% 49.29% 40.24% 5.63% 2.62

% .32% .16% 1.51

% .24%

Secondary 100.00% 50.0% 75.85% 18.01% 2.02% .55% 1.82% .31% 1.28

% .16%

Higher 100.00% 30.1% 76.41% 16.66% 1.81% .41% 2.40% 1.25

% 1.03

% .04%

Education

More than one answer

100.00% .3% 61.29% 22.58% 3.23

% 12.90

%

Rural 100.00% 50.1% 59.26% 34.18% 4.08% .39% .80% .06% 1.04

% .19% RURAL/URBAN

Urban 100.00% 49.9% 83.11% 8.42% 1.24% 2.04

% 2.56%

1.09%

1.35%

.20%

up to 1000 inh 100.00% 16.4% 83.11% 9.07% 4.83% .46% 1.13% .07%

1.19% .13%

1001-3000 inh 100.00% 20.0% 53.85% 40.85% 2.82% .43% .43% .11%

1.46% .05%

3001-5000 inh

100.00% 10.4% 48.28% 48.28% 1.15% .31% 1.25% .10% .63%

5001-10000 inh 100.00% 4.6% 28.84% 54.14%

12.53% .24% .24%

3.55% .47%

SETTLEMENT TYPE

10001-20000 inh 100.00% 1.3% 65.81% 31.62% .85% .85% .85%

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20001-50000 inh 100.00% 16.5% 87.21% 4.39% 1.44%

4.07% 1.18% .59%

1.05% .07%

50001-100000 inh 100.00% 7.1% 80.95% 13.41% 1.07%

2.13% 1.22% .15% .61% .46%

Skopie 100.00% 23.8% 81.78% 8.91% 1.23% .73% 4.13% 1.14

% 1.86

% .23%

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Education

Subgroup Percentages

Education

SUBGROUP

Up to elementary Elementary Secondary Higher

More than one

answer

Overall Distribution 100.00% 100.0% 5.57% 14.00% 50.03% 30.05% .35%

Time interval- 7:00 – 10:00 100.00% 21.9% 5.99% 12.53% 46.50% 34.52% .45%

Time interval- 10:01 – 13:00

100.00% 32.1% 5.84% 13.32% 48.35% 32.25% .24%

Time interval- 13:01 – 16:00 100.00% 23.2% 5.60% 14.81% 50.88% 28.29% .43%

Wave Number

Time interval- 16:01 – 19:00 100.00% 22.7% 4.75% 15.56% 54.92% 24.43% .34%

Electoral district No.1

100.00% 17.9% 1.42% 6.77% 43.47% 48.09% .25%

Electoral district No.2 100.00% 15.9% 4.02% 13.74% 52.74% 29.15% .35%

Electoral district No.3 100.00% 15.9% 9.54% 14.04% 52.84% 23.24% .35%

Electoral district No.4

100.00% 16.7% 6.75% 16.49% 52.45% 23.84% .46%

Electoral district No.5 100.00% 16.3% 6.30% 13.01% 54.07% 26.36% .27%

Electoral district

Electoral district No.6 100.00% 17.3% 5.79% 20.23% 45.61% 27.93% .45%

Together for You

100.00% 23.3% 7.09% 11.96% 55.48% 25.28% .20%

Together for Macedonia 100.00% 39.8% 3.33% 9.34% 51.46% 35.55% .32%

DUI 100.00% 12.8% 8.08% 27.64% 42.61% 21.30% .37%

DPA 100.00% 5.1% 5.28% 24.08% 39.91% 30.28% .46%

PDP 100.00% 2.4% 9.62% 34.13% 38.94% 17.31%

SPM 100.00% 2.0% 3.45% 10.92% 52.87% 32.76%

NDP 100.00% 1.5% 6.30% 22.05% 48.82% 22.83%

Recoded Vote

Other 100.00% 13.1% 7.17% 13.36% 50.13% 28.61% .72%

Today 100.00% 16.3% 8.29% 19.05% 50.17% 22.00% .48% When did you decide to vote for this list of Within the

last week 100.00% 5.2% 7.38% 20.17% 44.90% 27.11% .43%

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In the last month 100.00% 5.7% 6.84% 20.31% 45.51% 27.15% .20%

1 to 3 months ago 100.00% 6.0% 4.83% 19.33% 49.26% 26.02% .56%

More than 3 months ago

100.00% 15.4% 3.79% 10.78% 45.30% 39.69% .44%

Always vote for the same party

100.00% 51.1% 4.87% 11.38% 52.30% 31.19% .26%

candidates

More than one answer 100.00% .3% 3.33% 30.00% 50.00% 13.33% 3.33%

Trust this party the most

100.00% 46.3% 6.02% 15.04% 49.89% 28.76% .29%

Party leader 100.00% 10.9% 7.60% 18.85% 48.33% 25.10% .10%

Party's stance on the issues

100.00% 8.5% 2.66% 8.51% 47.21% 40.82% .80%

Candidate leading the list

100.00% 4.7% 4.13% 14.08% 45.87% 35.92%

They are not as bad as other parties

100.00% 7.5% 3.78% 9.98% 53.10% 32.83% .30%

I have always voted for this party

100.00% 15.2% 5.90% 13.59% 53.32% 26.66% .52%

Other 100.00% 4.9% 2.80% 8.41% 47.90% 40.65% .23%

Reasons that describe why you voted for that list

More than one answer

100.00% 2.1% 4.92% 15.30% 46.45% 32.24% 1.09%

VMRO-DPMNE 100.00% 29.5% 6.30% 12.13% 54.64% 26.58% .35%

SDSM 100.00% 33.6% 4.46% 10.19% 52.32% 32.79% .24%

DA 100.00% 4.4% 3.37% 7.51% 45.60% 43.01% .52%

PDP 100.00% 7.1% 8.90% 30.58% 40.94% 19.42% .16%

DPA 100.00% 11.5% 5.86% 25.15% 42.54% 26.04% .40%

LDP 100.00% 2.4% 2.84% 8.06% 45.50% 42.18% 1.42%

SPM 100.00% 1.3% 6.09% 12.17% 45.22% 36.52%

Other 100.00% 1.8% 6.88% 20.63% 34.38% 38.13%

DK 100.00% 8.0% 4.44% 9.31% 49.86% 35.82% .57%

Which political party in 1998 have you voted for?

More than one answer

100.00% .3% 7.69% 23.08% 38.46% 26.92% 3.85%

Since 1998 has Gotten better 100.00% 25.7% 6.62% 13.96% 52.17% 26.85% .40%

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Stayed the same 100.00% 34.3% 5.53% 16.31% 47.91% 30.05% .20%

Gotten worse 100.00% 39.6% 4.65% 11.42% 50.03% 33.47% .44%

your living standard gotten better or ...

More than one answer 100.00% .3% 6.90% 6.90% 55.17% 27.59% 3.45%

Establishing peace and stability

100.00% 40.0% 6.43% 14.03% 51.75% 27.39% .39%

Economic development 100.00% 15.7% 3.44% 11.32% 43.27% 41.91% .07%

Creating new jobs

100.00% 11.7% 5.58% 14.23% 55.10% 24.71% .38%

Improving Inter-ethnic relations

100.00% 1.6% 2.80% 17.48% 48.25% 30.07% 1.40%

Fighting Corruption 100.00% 3.2% 5.21% 14.58% 46.53% 33.68%

Implementing the Framework Agreement

100.00% 4.9% 8.47% 22.43% 44.39% 24.03% .69%

Education 100.00% 1.4% 3.15% 12.60% 41.73% 42.52%

Reducing Poverty

100.00% 11.2% 4.90% 13.19% 58.54% 23.08% .30%

Other 100.00% .6% 5.36% 5.36% 48.21% 39.29% 1.79%

DK 100.00% 1.2% 14.29% 21.90% 38.10% 25.71%

What should the new government's first priority be?

More than one answer 100.00% 8.5% 3.94% 10.91% 44.68% 40.08% .39%

Male 100.00% 63.5% 5.19% 14.27% 50.39% 29.82% .33% Gender

Female 100.00% 36.5% 5.75% 13.32% 48.57% 32.07% .29%

18 – 24 yrs. 100.00% 20.4% 4.36% 9.33% 49.97% 36.00% .33%

25 – 34 yrs. 100.00% 23.6% 4.44% 12.85% 54.42% 28.00% .29%

35 – 44 yrs. 100.00% 25.7% 3.29% 13.73% 55.26% 27.32% .39%

45 – 54 yrs. 100.00% 16.7% 4.66% 14.85% 48.89% 31.33% .27%

55 – 64 yrs. 100.00% 8.9% 9.66% 21.73% 37.23% 31.13% .25%

65+ yrs. 100.00% 4.5% 24.81% 23.82% 25.56% 25.56% .25%

Age

More than one answer 100.00% .2% 6.67% 6.67% 33.33% 33.33% 20.00%

0 – 3,000 den. 100.00% 17.6% 15.42% 28.44% 43.06% 12.69% .40% Total monthly household income 3,001 – 6,000

den. 100.00% 17.7% 7.98% 23.68% 54.68% 13.06% .59%

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6,001 – 12,000 den. 100.00% 27.7% 2.86% 10.61% 59.55% 26.73% .25%

12,001 – 18,000 den. 100.00% 17.3% 1.35% 5.26% 50.34% 42.99% .07%

18,001 – 24,000 den.

100.00% 9.2% 1.02% 3.95% 41.66% 53.12% .25%

24,000+ den. 100.00% 10.4% 1.12% 4.39% 35.21% 59.17% .11%

More than one answer

100.00% .2% 16.67% 5.56% 38.89% 16.67% 22.22%

Macedonian 100.00% 71.3% 4.51% 9.66% 53.28% 32.25% .30%

Albanian 100.00% 21.4% 7.68% 26.31% 42.19% 23.46% .36%

Turk 100.00% 2.6% 10.21% 30.21% 38.72% 20.85%

Roma 100.00% 1.1% 30.69% 32.67% 24.75% 10.89% .99%

Serb 100.00% 1.7% .66% 2.63% 53.95% 42.76%

Vlach 100.00% .6% 5.66% 3.77% 26.42% 64.15%

Other 100.00% 1.2% 4.55% 17.27% 52.73% 25.45%

Nationality

More than one answer

100.00% .2% 20.00% 46.67% 6.67% 26.67%

Up to elementary 5.57% 5.6% 5.57%

Elementary 14.00% 14.0% 14.00%

Secondary 50.03% 50.0% 50.03%

Higher 30.05% 30.0% 30.05%

Education

More than one answer .35% .4% .35%

Rural 100.00% 50.1% 8.34% 22.24% 50.89% 18.24% .29% RURAL/URBAN

Urban 100.00% 49.9% 2.79% 5.73% 49.16% 41.91% .42%

up to 1000 inh 100.00% 16.4% 10.23% 22.88% 52.15% 14.33% .40%

1001-3000 inh 100.00% 20.0% 8.72% 23.52% 48.65% 18.83% .28%

3001-5000 inh 100.00% 10.3% 5.99% 21.07% 52.09% 20.64% .21%

5001-10000 inh

100.00% 4.6% 4.76% 15.24% 52.62% 27.38%

10001-20000 inh 100.00% 1.3% 6.84% 57.26% 35.90%

20001-50000 inh 100.00% 16.4% 4.78% 8.15% 51.04% 35.42% .61%

50001-100000 inh

100.00% 7.0% 3.91% 5.63% 49.30% 40.69% .47%

SETTLEMENT TYPE

Skopie 100.00% 24.0% 1.06% 3.58% 47.47% 47.56% .32%

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Rural / Urban

Subgroup Percentages RURAL/URBAN

SUBGROUP

Rural Urban

Overall Distribution 100.00% 100.0% 50.33% 49.67%

Time interval- 7:00 – 10:00 100.00% 22.5% 43.23% 56.77%

Time interval- 10:01 – 13:00 100.00% 32.0% 47.11% 52.89%

Time interval- 13:01 – 16:00 100.00% 22.7% 55.96% 44.04% Wave Number

Time interval- 16:01 – 19:00 100.00% 22.8% 56.23% 43.77%

Electoral district No.1 100.00% 17.5% 14.04% 85.96%

Electoral district No.2 100.00% 15.3% 38.97% 61.03%

Electoral district No.3 100.00% 16.7% 63.23% 36.77%

Electoral district No.4 100.00% 17.4% 57.29% 42.71%

Electoral district No.5 100.00% 16.1% 53.91% 46.09%

Electoral district

Electoral district No.6 100.00% 17.0% 74.69% 25.31%

Together for You 100.00% 23.8% 48.87% 51.13%

Together for Macedonia 100.00% 39.6% 38.49% 61.51%

DUI 100.00% 12.5% 83.39% 16.61%

DPA 100.00% 4.8% 77.11% 22.89%

PDP 100.00% 2.3% 84.04% 15.96%

SPM 100.00% 2.0% 51.58% 48.42%

NDP 100.00% 1.4% 51.11% 48.89%

Recoded Vote

Other 100.00% 13.5% 42.23% 57.77%

Today 100.00% 16.9% 50.57% 49.43%

Within the last week 100.00% 5.1% 52.42% 47.58%

In the last month 100.00% 5.7% 65.34% 34.66%

1 to 3 months ago 100.00% 5.9% 69.08% 30.92%

More than 3 months ago 100.00% 15.1% 46.20% 53.80%

Always vote for the same party 100.00% 50.8% 47.36% 52.64%

When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates

More than one answer 100.00% .4% 44.74% 55.26%

Trust this party the most 100.00% 46.1% 52.13% 47.87%

Party leader 100.00% 10.8% 66.57% 33.43%

Reasons that describe why you voted for that list

Party's stance on the issues 100.00% 8.5% 40.83% 59.17%

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Candidate leading the list 100.00% 4.7% 48.24% 51.76%

They are not as bad as other parties

100.00% 7.4% 40.24% 59.76%

I have always voted for this party 100.00% 15.4% 49.64% 50.36%

Other 100.00% 4.8% 35.39% 64.61%

More than one answer 100.00% 2.2% 43.35% 56.65%

VMRO-DPMNE 100.00% 29.9% 46.76% 53.24%

SDSM 100.00% 33.7% 40.27% 59.73%

DA 100.00% 4.4% 28.14% 71.86%

PDP 100.00% 7.0% 86.12% 13.88%

DPA 100.00% 11.3% 77.60% 22.40%

LDP 100.00% 2.4% 39.53% 60.47%

SPM 100.00% 1.3% 56.03% 43.97%

Other 100.00% 1.9% 43.20% 56.80%

DK 100.00% 7.8% 50.49% 49.51%

Which political party in 1998 have you voted for?

More than one answer 100.00% .4% 36.11% 63.89%

Gotten better 100.00% 26.0% 53.94% 46.06%

Stayed the same 100.00% 34.1% 55.65% 44.35%

Gotten worse 100.00% 39.5% 43.03% 56.97%

Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or ...

More than one answer 100.00% .3% 43.33% 56.67%

Establishing peace and stability 100.00% 39.9% 51.35% 48.65%

Economic development 100.00% 15.5% 43.95% 56.05%

Creating new jobs 100.00% 11.6% 47.04% 52.96%

Improving Inter-ethnic relations

100.00% 1.6% 60.54% 39.46%

Fighting Corruption 100.00% 3.3% 46.67% 53.33%

Implementing the Framework Agreement

100.00% 4.9% 86.86% 13.14%

Education 100.00% 1.4% 65.63% 34.38%

Reducing Poverty 100.00% 11.2% 46.16% 53.84%

Other 100.00% .7% 42.19% 57.81%

DK 100.00% 1.2% 49.09% 50.91%

What should the new government's first priority be?

More than one answer 100.00% 8.9% 41.86% 58.14%

Male 100.00% 63.7% 54.04% 45.96% Gender

Female 100.00% 36.3% 43.89% 56.11%

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18 – 24 yrs. 100.00% 20.3% 54.17% 45.83%

25 – 34 yrs. 100.00% 23.5% 57.84% 42.16%

35 – 44 yrs. 100.00% 25.8% 51.96% 48.04%

45 – 54 yrs. 100.00% 16.7% 39.62% 60.38%

55 – 64 yrs. 100.00% 8.9% 39.41% 60.59%

65+ yrs. 100.00% 4.6% 44.98% 55.02%

Age

More than one answer 100.00% .2% 61.11% 38.89%

0 – 3,000 den. 100.00% 17.8% 71.41% 28.59%

3,001 – 6,000 den. 100.00% 17.7% 65.20% 34.80%

6,001 – 12,000 den. 100.00% 27.7% 50.27% 49.73%

12,001 – 18,000 den. 100.00% 17.2% 35.40% 64.60%

18,001 – 24,000 den. 100.00% 9.1% 30.21% 69.79%

24,000+ den. 100.00% 10.3% 26.61% 73.39%

Total monthly household income

More than one answer 100.00% .2% 55.56% 44.44%

Macedonian 100.00% 71.2% 41.74% 58.26%

Albanian 100.00% 21.3% 80.30% 19.70%

Turk 100.00% 2.7% 76.83% 23.17%

Roma 100.00% 1.2% 16.07% 83.93%

Serb 100.00% 1.7% 23.87% 76.13%

Vlach 100.00% .6% 5.66% 94.34%

Other 100.00% 1.2% 43.64% 56.36%

Nationality

More than one answer 100.00% .2% 50.00% 50.00%

Up to elementary 100.00% 5.6% 75.05% 24.95%

Elementary 100.00% 14.0% 79.61% 20.39%

Secondary 100.00% 50.0% 50.98% 49.02%

Higher 100.00% 30.0% 30.42% 69.58%

Education

More than one answer 100.00% .4% 40.63% 59.38%

Rural 50.33% 50.3% 50.33% RURAL/URBAN

Urban 49.67% 49.7% 49.67%

up to 1000 inh 100.00% 16.4% 100.00%

1001-3000 inh 100.00% 20.6% 100.00%

3001-5000 inh 100.00% 10.1% 100.00%

5001-10000 inh 100.00% 4.4% 73.29% 26.71%

10001-20000 inh 100.00% 1.2% 100.00%

SETTLEMENT TYPE

20001-50000 inh 100.00% 17.0% 100.00%

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50001-100000 inh 100.00% 7.0% 100.00%

Skopie 100.00% 23.3% 100.00%

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SETTLEMENT TYPE

Subgroup Percentages SETTLEMENT TYPE

SUBGROUP

up to 1000 inh

1001-3000 inh

3001-5000 inh

5001-10000

inh

10001-

20000 inh

20001-

50000 inh

50001-

100000 inh

Skopie

Overall Distribution 100.00% 100.0

% 16.37

% 20.63

% 10.12

% 4.38% 1.17

% 16.97

% 7.02% 23.34

%

Time interval- 7:00 – 10:00

100.00% 22.5% 15.54

% 16.12

% 9.97% 3.61%

1.16%

16.61%

9.17% 27.83

%

Time interval- 10:01 – 13:00

100.00% 32.0% 15.41

% 18.88

% 9.95% 3.96%

1.22%

16.63%

7.64% 26.30

%

Time interval- 13:01 – 16:00

100.00% 22.7% 17.99

% 23.41

% 9.81% 5.68% 1.10

% 18.70

% 5.46% 17.86

%

Wave Number

Time interval- 16:01 – 19:00

100.00% 22.8% 16.93

% 24.78

% 10.79

% 4.43% 1.18

% 16.10

% 5.57% 20.22

%

Electoral district No.1

100.00% 17.5% 3.37% 5.14% 5.54% 85.96

%

Electoral district No.2

100.00% 15.3% 7.99% 22.20

% 8.78% 6.75%

54.29%

Electoral district No.3

100.00% 16.7% 19.46

% 15.15

% 28.62

%

4.73%

32.04%

Electoral district No.4

100.00% 17.4% 20.49

% 36.80

%

32.20%

10.51%

Electoral district No.5

100.00% 16.1% 31.93

% 11.37

%

17.89%

24.29

% 14.53

%

Electoral district

Electoral district No.6

100.00% 17.0% 15.33

% 32.77

% 17.79

% 8.81%

2.23%

12.39%

10.69%

Together for You

100.00% 23.8% 21.33

% 18.86

% 8.42% 3.74%

1.31%

20.39%

8.10% 17.87

% Recoded Vote

Together for Macedonia

100.00% 39.6% 16.54

% 14.75

% 5.98% 1.73% .95% 20.93

% 8.07% 31.05

%

Page 86: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

86

DUI 100.00% 12.5% 8.86% 40.19

% 24.10

% 10.24

% 1.55

% 3.53% 4.56% 6.97%

DPA 100.00% 4.8% 9.78% 36.00

% 27.56

% 3.78% 1.78

% 3.11% 5.78% 12.22

%

PDP 100.00% 2.3% 2.82% 57.75

% 21.60

% 1.88%

2.35%

2.82% 1.41% 9.39%

SPM 100.00% 2.0% 21.58

% 15.79

% 14.21

% .53% 3.16

% 15.79

% 6.84% 22.11

%

NDP 100.00% 1.4% 29.63

% 16.30

% 5.19% 4.44

% 2.22% 5.93% 36.30

%

Other 100.00% 13.5% 19.36

% 13.31

% 2.79% 7.17% .80%

21.51%

7.25% 27.81

%

Today 100.00% 16.9% 12.72

% 22.84

% 12.79

% 2.99% .64% 15.71

% 6.55% 25.76

%

Within the last week 100.00% 5.1%

13.26%

20.00%

14.32% 5.26% .42%

14.32% 6.11%

26.32%

In the last month

100.00% 5.7% 14.96

% 24.24

% 17.99

% 8.33%

1.52%

9.28% 5.49% 18.18

%

1 to 3 months ago 100.00% 5.9%

13.20%

25.68%

12.84%

18.08% .90% 9.95% 4.88%

14.47%

More than 3 months ago 100.00% 15.1%

13.63%

19.02% 9.58% 4.33%

1.63%

14.05% 7.52%

30.23%

Always vote for the same party

100.00% 50.8% 19.28

% 18.43

% 8.29% 3.17%

1.46%

19.59%

7.55% 22.22

%

When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates

More than one answer

100.00% .4% 15.79

% 23.68

% 5.26%

10.53%

10.53%

34.21%

Trust this party the most

100.00% 46.1% 17.35

% 21.05

% 11.16

% 3.53% 1.41

% 16.92

% 7.03% 21.55

%

Party leader 100.00% 10.8%

13.52%

28.76%

14.94%

10.37%

1.02% 9.65% 4.57%

17.17%

Party's stance on the issues

100.00% 8.5% 13.57

% 16.80

% 7.49% 3.49% 1.55

% 17.96

% 7.62% 31.52

%

Candidate leading the list

100.00% 4.7% 14.35

% 15.76

% 11.29

% 7.53% 1.88

% 14.35

% 6.12% 28.71

%

They are not as bad as other parties

100.00% 7.4% 13.91

% 16.57

% 7.10% 3.55% 1.33

% 15.83

% 9.91% 31.80

%

Reasons that describe why you voted for that list

I have always voted for this party

100.00% 15.4% 20.19

% 19.19

% 8.49% 4.28% 1.14

% 19.04

% 7.63% 20.04

%

Page 87: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

87

Other 100.00% 4.8% 13.93

% 11.42

% 7.99% 3.20% .68% 18.04

% 7.99% 36.76

%

More than one answer 100.00% 2.2% 9.36%

20.20% 9.85% 5.91%

19.21% 4.93%

30.54%

VMRO-DPMNE

100.00% 29.9% 21.08

% 17.51

% 7.91% 3.09%

1.25%

19.39%

7.25% 22.52

%

SDSM 100.00% 33.7% 18.94

% 14.67

% 5.58% 1.76% 1.14

% 22.04

% 7.89% 27.98

%

DA 100.00% 4.4% 12.31

% 12.06

% 2.51% 1.76% .75% 19.10

% 10.80

% 40.70

%

PDP 100.00% 7.0% 6.78% 48.26

% 20.98

% 10.09

% 1.74

% 1.74% 1.58% 8.83%

DPA 100.00% 11.3% 6.72% 31.26

% 25.61

% 14.02

% 1.66

% 4.28% 5.65% 10.81

%

LDP 100.00% 2.4% 17.67

% 14.88

% 6.98% .47% 13.02

% 3.72% 43.26

%

SPM 100.00% 1.3% 23.28

% 16.38

% 16.38

% .86%

4.31%

12.93%

7.76% 18.10

%

Other 100.00% 1.9% 10.06

% 17.16

% 5.92% 10.65

% 1.18

% 15.38

% 10.06

% 29.59

%

DK 100.00% 7.8% 14.03

% 19.21

% 13.32

% 4.49% 1.12

% 12.76

% 7.85% 27.21

%

Which political party in 1998 have you voted for?

More than one answer

100.00% .4% 13.89

% 11.11

% 11.11

%

22.22%

13.89%

27.78%

Gotten better 100.00% 26.0%

17.30%

21.28%

12.59% 5.45%

1.64%

17.78% 6.36%

17.60%

Stayed the same 100.00% 34.1%

17.66%

22.87%

10.81% 5.07%

1.32%

12.69% 7.87%

21.71%

Gotten worse

100.00% 39.5% 14.57

% 16.45

% 8.71% 3.78%

1.11%

18.87%

7.06% 29.45

%

Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or ...

More than one answer 100.00% .3%

16.67%

23.33% 3.33% 3.33%

26.67% 3.33%

23.33%

Establishing peace and stability

100.00% 39.9% 17.51

% 21.05

% 10.91

% 2.51% 1.39

% 16.23

% 7.58% 22.83

%

Economic development

100.00% 15.5% 13.64

% 17.65

% 8.93% 4.57% .84% 19.34

% 5.91% 29.11

%

Creating new jobs 100.00% 11.6%

18.50%

17.37% 9.20% 5.63% .75%

19.34% 8.64%

20.56%

Improving Inter-ethnic relations

100.00% 1.6% 14.97

% 27.21

% 11.56

% 6.80% .68% 11.56

% 6.12% 21.09

%

What should the new government's first priority be?

Fighting Corruption 100.00% 3.3%

13.33%

17.67%

11.33% 4.67%

2.67%

11.67% 8.00%

30.67%

Page 88: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

88

Implementing the Framework Agreement

100.00% 4.9% 12.92

% 43.65

% 12.47

% 17.82

% .89% 3.12% 2.67% 6.46%

Education 100.00% 1.4% 7.81% 25.00

% 18.75

% 15.63

% 1.56

% 10.16

% 11.72

% 9.38%

Reducing Poverty 100.00% 11.2%

18.85%

14.97%

10.30% 3.11%

2.14%

21.48% 7.00%

22.16%

Other 100.00% .7% 14.06

% 15.63

% 7.81% 6.25% 14.06

% 4.69% 37.50

%

DK 100.00% 1.2% 22.73

% 15.45

% 9.09% 5.45% .91%

11.82%

6.36% 28.18

%

More than one answer 100.00% 8.9%

12.85%

16.65% 8.81% 5.39% .98%

15.42% 7.10%

32.80%

Male 100.00% 63.7% 17.50

% 21.13

% 11.79

% 4.71% 1.17

% 15.49

% 6.85% 21.38

% Gender

Female 100.00% 36.3% 14.61

% 17.95

% 8.00% 4.50%

1.64%

18.73%

7.46% 27.11

%

18 – 24 yrs. 100.00% 20.3% 15.26

% 20.67

% 14.66

% 5.36% 1.03

% 12.82

% 7.09% 23.11

%

25 – 34 yrs. 100.00% 23.5% 18.58

% 22.64

% 12.79

% 4.62% 1.17

% 15.73

% 6.12% 18.35

%

35 – 44 yrs. 100.00% 25.8% 17.50

% 20.95

% 9.67% 4.81%

1.53%

17.89%

6.56% 21.08

%

45 – 54 yrs. 100.00% 16.7% 13.38

% 16.68

% 6.66% 4.02% 1.58

% 18.46

% 7.58% 31.64

%

55 – 64 yrs. 100.00% 8.9% 15.15

% 16.01

% 4.93% 4.19% .99% 18.84

% 8.13% 31.77

%

65+ yrs. 100.00% 4.6% 19.62

% 19.38

% 4.55% 2.87%

1.20%

14.83%

10.53%

27.03%

Age

More than one answer 100.00% .2%

27.78%

22.22%

11.11% 5.56% 5.56%

27.78%

0 – 3,000 den. 100.00% 17.8%

21.22%

30.79%

16.36% 4.92% .39%

11.06% 4.72%

10.54%

3,001 – 6,000 den.

100.00% 17.7% 23.14

% 24.82

% 13.61

% 4.67% .91%

15.04%

5.57% 12.25

%

6,001 – 12,000 den. 100.00% 27.7%

16.45%

20.40% 8.52% 5.65%

1.83%

18.40% 8.27%

20.48%

12,001 – 18,000 den. 100.00% 17.2%

10.20%

13.87% 8.40% 4.53%

2.07%

20.53% 9.40%

31.00%

18,001 – 24,000 den.

100.00% 9.1% 11.38

% 10.24

% 5.94% 3.92%

1.64%

18.96%

7.96% 39.95

%

Total monthly household income

24,000+ den. 100.00% 10.3% 9.69% 8.46% 7.35% 1.56%

1.00%

14.59% 6.35%

51.00%

Page 89: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

89

More than one answer 100.00% .2%

16.67%

27.78% 5.56% 5.56%

22.22% 5.56%

16.67%

Macedonian 100.00% 71.2%

19.10%

15.13% 7.03% 1.86%

1.17%

20.24% 8.08%

27.39%

Albanian 100.00% 21.3% 6.95% 38.27

% 23.45

% 11.62

% 1.88

% 3.40% 4.47% 9.95%

Turk 100.00% 2.7% 29.67

% 21.14

% 4.47% 21.54

% .41% 8.94% 2.85% 10.98

%

Roma 100.00% 1.2% 6.25% 7.14% 2.68% .89% .89% 55.36

% 12.50

% 14.29

%

Serb 100.00% 1.7% 10.97

% 5.16% 7.74% .65%

11.61%

5.16% 58.71

%

Vlach 100.00% .6% 1.89% 3.77% 28.30

% 16.98

% 1.89% 47.17

%

Other 100.00% 1.2% 16.36

% 24.55

% .91% 1.82% .91% 14.55

% 3.64% 37.27

%

Nationality

More than one answer

100.00% .2% 11.11

% 5.56%

33.33%

5.56% 16.67

% 27.78

%

Up to elementary 100.00% 5.6%

30.10%

31.29%

11.09% 3.96%

14.06% 4.95% 4.55%

Elementary 100.00% 14.0% 26.77

% 33.54

% 15.51

% 5.04% .63% 9.53% 2.83% 6.14%

Secondary 100.00% 50.0% 17.08

% 19.42

% 10.73

% 4.87%

1.48%

16.71%

6.94% 22.77

%

Higher 100.00% 30.0% 7.82% 12.51

% 7.08% 4.22% 1.54

% 19.30

% 9.54% 37.98

%

Education

More than one answer 100.00% .4%

18.75%

15.63% 6.25%

28.13% 9.38%

21.88%

Rural 100.00% 50.3% 32.53

% 40.99

% 20.10

% 6.38%

RURAL/URBAN

Urban 100.00% 49.7% 2.35% 2.35

% 34.17

% 14.13

% 46.99

%

up to 1000 inh 16.37% 16.4%

16.37%

1001-3000 inh

20.63% 20.6% 20.63

%

3001-5000 inh 10.12% 10.1%

10.12%

5001-10000 inh 4.38% 4.4% 4.38%

10001-20000 inh

1.17% 1.2% 1.17

%

SETTLEMENT TYPE

20001-50000 inh 16.97% 17.0%

16.97%

Page 90: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

90

50001-100000 inh 7.02% 7.0% 7.02%

Skopie 23.34% 23.3% 23.34

%

Page 91: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Macedonian Exit Poll 2002

Williams and Associates

Macedonian member of GALLUP International and Associate of Taylor Nelson Sofres

B R I M A

Page 92: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Exit Poll Specifications

• 150 Polling Locations• 25 in each of the six electoral districts

• 150 Professionally Trained Interviewers• 300 Professional Support Staff• 50 Regional Supervisory Staff• 9400 Total Interviews Completed

Page 93: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Vote by District (Major Parties) Final

1.11.11.54.42.21.9SPM

0.41.73.74.32.23.3DA

3.21.6007.91.6PDP

16.11.90.702.97.0DPA

42.810.704.013.54.3DUI

7.032.932.333.721.116.3VMRO-DPMNE/LPM

23.832.949.842.337.750.2Together for MK

654321

Page 94: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Results for Parties over 2%

40.5%

24.4%

11.9%

4.2%

2.3%

2.1%

2.2%

39.6%

23.8%

12.5%

4.8%

2.3%

2.0%

1.4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Together for Macedonia

VMRO-DPMNE/LPM

Democratic Union for Integration

Democratic Party of Albanians

Party for Democratic Prosperity

Socialist Party

NDP

Initial Tally Exit Final

Page 95: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Top Priority for New Government

3%

40%

16%12%

2%5%

11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45% Peace and stability

Economic development

Creating new jobs

Improving InterethnicrelationsFighting Corruption

Implementing theFramework AgreementReducing Poverty

Page 96: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Support by Gender (*Albanian only)

24%

54%

23%

45%

9%11%

37%

19%

56%

22%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Together forMacedonia

VMRO-DPMNE/LPM

Democratic Union forIntegration*

Democratic Party ofAlbanians*

Party for DemocraticProsperity*

Male Female

Page 97: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Support by Age

35%

35%

39%

47%

49%

43%

23%

27%

24%

22%

19%

24%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

Together for Macedonia VMRO-DPMNE/LPM

Page 98: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Support by Age (Albanian)

58%

52%

50%

57%

59%

55%

25%

24%

23%

15%

13%

17%

6%

9%

12%

17%

8%

7%

6%

6%

8%

2%

14%

11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

DUI DPA PDP NDP

Page 99: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Support by Urban/Rural(*Albanian only)

49%

30%

25%

23%

44%

57%

27%

21%

8%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Urban

Rural

Together for MK VMRO-DPMNE/LPM DUI* DPA* PDP*

Page 100: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates?

17%

5%

6%

6%

15%

51%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Today

Within last week

In the last month

1 to 3 months ago

More than 3 month ago

Always vote this party

Page 101: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Projected Vote/Official Vote by District Together for Macedonia

48%

40%

46%49%

42%

16%

50%

38%42%

50%

33%

24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

ED1 ED2 ED3 ED4 ED5 ED6

ResultExit Poll

Page 102: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Projected Vote/Official Vote by District VMRO-DPMNE / LP

18% 18%

34%

38%

30%

6%

16%

21%

32% 33%

7%

34%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

ED1 ED2 ED3 ED4 ED5 ED6

ResultExit Poll

Page 103: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Projected Vote/Official Vote by District DUI

9%11% 10%

0%

10%

44%

4%

13%

0%

11%

43%

4%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

ED1 ED2 ED3 ED4 ED5 ED6

ResultExit Poll

Page 104: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Projected Vote/Official Vote by District DPA

5% 6%

1%0%

4%

17%

7%

3%

0%

2%

16%

1%

0%2%4%

6%8%

10%12%

14%16%18%

ED1 ED2 ED3 ED4 ED5 ED6

ResultExit Poll

Page 105: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Projected Vote/Official Vote by District PDP

3%

4%

0% 0%

2%

5%

2%

8%

0%

2%

3%

0%0%1%2%

3%4%5%6%

7%8%9%

ED1 ED2 ED3 ED4 ED5 ED6

ResultExit Poll

Page 106: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Projected Vote/Official Vote by District NDP

1%

6%

0% 0%

2%

4%

2%

4%

0%1%

2%

0%0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

ED1 ED2 ED3 ED4 ED5 ED6

ResultExit Poll

Page 107: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Projected Vote/Official Vote by District Socialist Party

2%

3%

4%

2%2%

1%

2%2%

1%1% 1%

4%

0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%4%5%5%

ED1 ED2 ED3 ED4 ED5 ED6

ResultExit Poll

Page 108: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Why did you vote for this party?

46%

11% 9%5% 7%

15%

7%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50% Trust this party most

Party leader

Party's stand on issues

Candidate leading thelistNot as bad as others

Always vote this party

Other

Page 109: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Which political party did you support in 1998?

30%34%

4%7%

11%

2% 1% 2%

8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

VMRO-DPMNESDSMDAPDPDPALDPSPMOTHERDK

Page 110: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Since 1998 has your living standard gotten….

26%

34%

40%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

BetterSameWorse

Page 111: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Gender & Age

Male64%

Female36%

20%

24%

26%

17%

9%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Page 112: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Size & Character of Community

Urban50%

Rural50%

16%

20%

16%17%

7%

23%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Less th

an 10

00

1001-3

000

3001-2

0000

21000-

50000

5100

0-100

000

Skop

je

Page 113: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Monthy Income (Denar) & Education

18%

18%

28%

17%

19%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Less than3000

3001-6000

6001-12000

12001-18000

18000 andover

6%

14%

50%

30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Up to e

lement

ary

Element

ary

Second

aryHigh

er

Page 114: Exit Poll Analysis - IRI

International Republican Institute

Ethnic Background

Albanian21%

Macedonian71%

Turk3%

Other2%

Serb2%

Roma1%