INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTEBALTIC SURVEYS/THE GALLUP ORGANIZATION

Kazakhstan Presidential Election

EXIT POLL RESULTS

December 4, 2005

IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 2

KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLL

• This report is based on exit poll data collected by Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization in cooperation with the Social and Political Research Center (Kazakhstan) during the Presidential election of December 4, 2005.

• A total of 23,780 voters at 283 polling stations were interviewed.

• The margin of error is +/- one percent.

IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 3

KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLL

SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC COMPOSITION OF THE SAMPLE

4.38.3

1.43.1

30.3

52.6

5.714.0

18.421.219.721.0

51.148.9

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0

100.0

Male

Female

18-29

30-39

40-49

50-59 60

+No a

nswer

Kazak

hRuss

ianUkr

ainian

Uzbek

Other

No answ

er

Gender Age Group Ethnicity

IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 4

KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLL

REGIONAL COMPOSITION OF THE SAMPLE

2.4

6.5 5.2 5.17.3 6.0

8.8

4.0 5.22.7 2.2

10.8

4.5 5.8

13.8

9.9

0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.018.020.0

Asta

na ci

tyAl

mat

y city

North

Kaz

kahs

tan

obl.

Pavlo

dar o

bl.

Kosta

nai o

bl.Ak

mola

obl.

Karag

anda

obl.

Weste

rn K

azak

hsta

n ob

l.

Akty

ubin

sk ob

l.At

yrau

obl.

Mangis

tau

obl.

Alm

aty o

bl.

Kyzylo

rda o

bl.

Zham

byl o

bl.

Sout

h Kaz

akhs

tan

obl

East

ern

Kazak

hsta

n ob

l.

IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 5

MAIN RESULTS

IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 6

KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLL

WHICH OF THESE CANDIDATES DID YOU VOTE FOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

M. Eleussizov1.4%

N. Nazarbayev83.2%

Y. Abylkassymov1.2%

A. Baimenov3.2%

Zh. Tuyakbai9.9%

Spoiled the ballot1.1%

IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 7

KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLL

WHEN DID YOU DECIDE WHICH CANDIDATE YOU WOULD VOTE FOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

Today9.3% A week ago

8.0%

A month ago13.1%

Earlier62.2%

No answer7.4%

IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 8

KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLL

WHICH VOTING SYSTEM DID YOU USE IN THE ELECTION?

Paper 75.1%

Electronic18.1%

No answer6.8%

IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 9

KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLL

DID YOU VOTE IN THE 2004 MAJILIS (PARLIAMENTARY) ELECTIONS?

Yes62.7%

No27.6%

No answer9.7%

IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 10

DETAILED POLL RESULTS

83.2

9

4.1

1.4

1.3

1

N. Naz

arbay

ev

Zh. Tuya

kbai

A. Baim

enov

M. Eleu

ssizo

v

Y. Aby

lkass

ymov

d the ballot)

83.2

10.1

3.2

1.3

1

1.2

82.9

10.5

2.6

1.7

1.3

1

83.3

10.2

3.2

1.2

0.9

1.2

9.9

1.7

1.5

1.5

0.8

84.5

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+

WHICH CANDIDATE DID YOU VOTE FOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

Age groups

81.3

11.7

3.4

1.4

1.2

0.9

N. Nazarbayev

Zh. Tuyakbai

A. Baimenov

M. Eleussizov

Y.Abylkassymov

Other (spoiledthe ballot)

87.3

7

2.3

1.2

0.9

1.3

75.1

14.3

5.5

3.2

1

0.9

4.7

1.9

1.5

2

0.2

89.6

8.8

3.5

1.9

1.4

1.6

82.8

Kazakh Russian Ukrainian Uzbek Other

WHICH CANDIDATE DID YOU VOTE FOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

Ethnic groups

80.3

11.9

3.8

1.5

1.4

1.1

N. Nazarbayev

Zh. Tuyakbai

A. Baimenov

M. Eleussizov

Y.Abylkassymov

Other (spoiledthe ballot)

86.1

8

2.6

1.4

1

1.1

Male Female

WHICH CANDIDATE DID YOU VOTE FOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

61.1

13.9

13.3

7.8

4

Earlier

Amonth

ago

Today

A weekago

Noanswer

62.2

14.5

9.8

9

4.5

64.8

15

7.7

7.9

4.6

63.6

13.3

8.9

9.3

4.9

9.8

6.4

5.8

3.5

74.6

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+

WHEN DID YOU DECIDE WHICH CANDIDIATE YOU WOULD VOTE FOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

Age groups

62.9

15.4

9.3

7.9

4.4

Earlier

Amonth

ago

Today

A weekago

Noanswer

68.6

10.8

8.6

7.3

4.7

60.7

10.7

10.9

11.3

6.3

62.5

11

10.1

10.6

5.7

11.5

11.8

9.9

9.2

57.7

Kazakh Russian Ukrainian Uzbek Other

WHEN DID YOU DECIDE WHICH CANDIDIATE YOU WOULD VOTE FOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

Ethnic groups

58.6

13.4

10.8

9

8.2

Earlier

A monthago

Today

A weekago

Noanswer

65.6

12.8

7.9

7

6.6

Male Female

WHEN DID YOU DECIDE WHICH CANDIDIATE YOU WOULD VOTE FOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

71.6

25.3

3.1

Paper(usual)

Electronic

Noanswer

75.9

20.6

3.5

81.5

14.4

4.1

78.5

18.2

3.3

11.2

4.3

84.5

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+

WHICH VOTING SYSTEM DID YOU USE IN THE ELECTION?

Age groups

78.3

17.7

4

Paper(usual)

Electronic

Noanswer

74.4

21.1

4.4

77.6

18.2

4.2

80.8

17.3

1.9

15.3

8.2

76.5

Kazakh Russian Ukrainian Uzbek Other

WHICH VOTING SYSTEM DID YOU USE IN THE ELECTION?

Ethnic groups

75.5

17.5

7.1

Paper(usual)

Electronic

Noanswer

74.6

18.8

6.6

Male Female

WHICH VOTING SYSTEM DID YOU USE IN THE ELECTION?

50

44.4

5.6

Yes

No

Noanswer

66.4

27.6

6

72.3

22

5.7

70.9

23.4

5.8

23.1

5.4

71.4

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+

DID YOU VOTE IN THE 2004 MAJILIS (PARLIAMENTARY) ELECTIONS?

Age groups

66.5

26.9

6.5

Yes

No

Noanswer

62.3

31.2

6.5

60.5

31.6

7.9

64.8

29.8

5.4

28

8.7

63.3

Kazakh Russian Ukrainian Uzbek Other

DID YOU VOTE IN THE 2004 MAJILIS (PARLIAMENTARY) ELECTIONS?

Ethnic groups

62.7

26.7

10.6

Yes

No

Noanswer

62.6

28.5

8.8

Male Female

DID YOU VOTE IN THE 2004 MAJILIS (PARLIAMENTARY) ELECTIONS?

IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 23

KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLLMETHODOLOGY

• The sample design was based on the following criteria:• Representative of the entire country – the poll was done in all 14

regions (oblasts), Astana, and Almaty;• The number of polling stations selected in each oblast and both cities

was proportional to the share of polling stations of each oblast/city in the country’s total number of polling stations;

• The number of polling stations selected reflected the share of registered voters in each oblast/city;

• The sample composition represented the urban-rural distribution of the voting population;

• The selection of sampling points (polling stations) was based on official data regarding voter turnout in the districts (okrugs) in the 2004 Majilis (parliamentary) elections – districts with extremely low and extremely high turnout were excluded and the medium turnout figure of all locations, included in our sample, reflected the medium turnout figure for the whole country.

IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 24

KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLL

METHODOLOGY

• The interviews were conducted near the exit from the polling station but at least 10 meters from the doors, as required by law.

• Every 10th voter leaving the polling station was approached.

• The interviewers started interviewing at 7:30 a.m. and finished at 8:00 p.m.

• Data entry, calculations, and analysis were done in Almaty by Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization.

21.4%

30-4940%

50+31%

18-29 29% Male

46%Female

54%

KAZAKHSTAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS EXIT POLL, December 4, 2005

REFUSAL RATE

Refusals include voters who refused to be interviewed after leaving the polling station and those who did not answer the question about which candidate they voted for.

Structure of refusals by age

Structure of refusals by sex

Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization