Exploring the service management standard ISO 20000

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Exploring the service management standard ISO20000

Santi Cots & Martí Casadesús

To cite this article: Santi Cots & Martí Casadesús (2015) Exploring the service managementstandard ISO 20000, Total Quality Management & Business Excellence, 26:5-6, 515-533, DOI:10.1080/14783363.2013.856544

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Exploring the service management standard ISO 20000

Santi Cotsa∗ and Martı Casadesusb

aServei Informatic, Universitat de Girona, Girona, Spain; bDepartament d’Organitzacio, GestioEmpresarial i Desenvolupament de Producte, Universitat de Girona, Girona, Spain

This paper is the first exploratory and quantitative study on a global scale of the currentand future impact of ISO 20000, a standard that is forecast to play an important role inthe information technology service management field. For the analysis of the currentsituation, this article first describes this standard and other related standards. This isfollowed by a diffusion analysis using worldwide certification data. It also analysesgeographical distribution by continents and countries and examines its evolutionover time through comparison with other management-system standards. Theanalysis extends to the relationships existing between countries, and a clearcorrelation is detected between different countries regarding the number ofcertifications and certification intensity. Regarding future forecasts, a logistic curveis used to detect the theoretical saturation point, which is earlier than previouslythought. Therefore, and comparing it with an updated forecast for other parallelstandards (viz: ISO 9001, ISO 14001 and ISO 27001), the analysis presents a newscenario in the field of management-system standardisation.

Keywords: ISO 20000; ITIL; IT service management; service science; managementstandards; ISO 9000; ISO 27001

1. Introduction

The rise in importance of information technologies (IT) services in modern society has

highlighted the need for quality in the production of those services. Clients of organis-

ations producing IT services are increasingly demanding more secure, effective and effi-

cient services. This customer exigency and the maturity of technology are making IT

organisations shift their focus from technology centred operations to a clear service para-

digm (Bitner, 2001; Demirkan et al., 2008). In order to meet this management need, the

discipline known as Information Technology Service Management (ITSM) has been devel-

oped and expanded. Within this framework, different management standards (MS) have

been designed, implemented and improved, whether they be formal or de facto (Kumba-

kara, 2008; Cater-Steel, 2009; Iden & Eikebrokk, 2013).

Without doubt, one of the standards of greatest current, and possibly future, impact is

the ISO 20000, which defines an IT service management system. This article therefore

analyses its current impact and future diffusion. In order to determine its relevance and

detect possible parallelisms, the standard’s current certification level is first analysed,

comparing it with other MS. Secondly, projection models, previously utilised in the

study of the most common standards and related to ISO 20000, are also used; these

models permit an analysis of their evolution over time and their geographical impact.

This all serves to obtain a clear vision of their current impact and, in particular, a projec-

tion of their future impact.1

# 2014 Taylor & Francis

∗Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]

Total Quality Management, 2015

Vol. 26, No. 5, 515–533, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14783363.2013.856544

mailto:[email protected]

2. Literature review

In the past, the industrialisation process highlighted the need to ensure the quality of goods

produced. Standardisation has permitted the establishment of common practices and refer-

ences both within and between organisations and internationally. It is for this reason that

standardisation is implemented in many areas, among which it is logical to find that of

management, giving rise to what is known as MS.

On an international scale, the main standardisation body is the International Organiz-

ation for Standardization, known by its acronym ISO. Founded in 1947, it currently has a

portfolio of over 19,400 standards, and comprises 164 countries (ISO, 2012). Irrespective

of their aims, MS promoted by ISO share many common characteristics, whether in their

form or in the principles that inspire them. A common characteristic of most ISO-pro-

moted MS is that they are auditable. Auditability, therefore, gives these standards a

value in itself, since it allows organisations to verify the implementation and use of

MS. When a third-party audit is carried out, the third party usually issues a ‘certificate’

that recognises and demonstrates the audited party’s monitoring of, and compliance

with, the standard. A large part of the value of these certificates is down to the issuing

body’s prestige. Those companies specialised in auditing and certification are, therefore,

generally predisposed to guarantee and demonstrate the quality and rigour of these certi-

fications. For this reason, they usually submit themselves to control by other organisations

that accredit them in accordance with what are called ‘certification schemes’. Certified

companies are normally disposed to, and interested in, making it known that they have

been certified (Wu & Chen, 2011).

There are already numerous studies in existence on the field of management standard-

isation (Sampaio, Saraiva, & Rodrigues, 2009b; Dahlgaard-Park, 2011; Dahlgaard-Park,

Chen, Jang, & Dahlgaard, 2013), its benefits and impact (Rubio-Andrada, Del Mar

Alonso-Almeida, & Rodrıguez-Anton, 2011), and the synergies produced by integrating

or combining a number of MS (Casadesus, Karapetrovic, & Heras, 2011; de Oliveira

Matias & Coelho, 2011; Zeng, Xie, Tam, & Shen, 2011; Garengo & Biazzo, 2013;

Simon, Bernardo, Karapetrovic, & Casadesus, 2013).

Related MS

Standard ISO 9001, which defines the requirements of a quality-management system,

stands out above all other MS for its diffusion and impact. With 1,111,698 certificates

issued worldwide in 2011 (ISO, 2012), it is the oldest and most widely diffused standard

and one that has been analysed most in publications. It is also important to mention its

influence in the development of ISO 20000. The possibility of an integrated use of both

standards should also be highlighted, a use explicitly mentioned in the standard’s text,

and one demonstrated by the fact that ISO has developed ISO/IEC DTR 90006: ‘Guide-

lines for the application of ISO 9001:2008 to IT service management and its integration

with ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011’.

The second most widely diffused MS is the ISO 14001 standard for environmental

management. Its relevance to this study derives from the fact that it has also been

widely written about, and that the current number of certifications stands at 267,457

(ISO, 2012). Many of the studies analysed that do not limit themselves to ISO 9001 are

based on ISO 14001, whether dealing with the comparison between, or integrated use

of, both standards.

Noteworthy in the specific IT field is the existence and diffusion of ISO 27001, focused

on information security management with a global total of 17,509 certificates in 2011

516 S. Cots and M. Casadesus

(ISO, 2012). As it is ISO that collects and annually publishes certification data for ISO

27001 in the ISO Survey of Management System Standard Certifications, this is a good

reference point for the study of ISO 20000. Also, an international standard ISO/IEC

27013:2012 titled ‘Guidance on the integrated implementation of ISO/IEC 27001 and

ISO/IEC 20000-1’ defines a guide to integrate both. It is remarkable that both, ISO

20000 and ISO 27001 are standard management systems originally developed for the IT

field but they can also be used in wider fields, as seen, for example in Lezcano, Adachi-

hara, and Prunier (2010) and Gillies (2011).

ISO 20000, a step beyond ITILw

In the ITSM field, there is a wide range of standards, tools and frameworks, among which

one finds: ITILw, CMMI-SVC, COBIT, ISO 20000, ISO 27001, LEAN IT, USMBOK,

PMBOK, Six Sigma, PRINCE2, ISO 9001, ValIT, ISO 38500. Many of these standards

have overlapping implementation areas or are complementary.

Of all the standards in the ITSM field, the one that stands out for its importance, diffusion

and development is ITILw (Information Technologies Infrastructure Library). ITILw is

known as ‘Library’ since it refers to a group of books, which have changed with each

version of the standard. ITILw, intellectual property of the British government’s Office

of Government Commerce (OGC), developed the standard at the end of the 1980s.

ITILw defines itself as a group of good practices for the management of IT services. As

its maxim ‘adopt and adapt’ suggests, it should not be mistaken for a standard. No organis-

ation can, therefore, claim ITILw compliance. This makes it difficult to know the exact

number of implementations, even though it does have a great impact, as proved by the

number of official personal certifications. According to the official level scheme also run

by The APM Group Ltd (official accrediting agency of the OGC, a branch of the UK gov-

ernment), the number of ITIL-certified professionals in the world currently stands at over

1,400,000 at the foundations level and at over 16,000 at the expert level (Tucker, 2012).

While ITILw and ISO 20000 are, by their very nature, different, the first being a group

of good practices and the second a management-system standard, the numerous simi-

larities as stated by Dugmore and Taylor (2008) have caused many authors to study

them as a whole, or to consider ISO 20000 a derivative of ITILw or a means for companies

to ‘certify themselves in ITILw’.

ISO 20000 is currently in its second version, the first document of which was published

in 2011, and the full identification of this document is ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011. As a whole,

the standard is comprised of different documents, which we refer to as ‘parts’; these are

detailed in Table 1.

When considering the standard in its entirety, the first part defining the management-

system requirements is most relevant. It is the only part with enforceable requirements for

certification. The remainder are just complementary advice or recommendations. References

Table 1. Published parts of ISO/IEC 20000.

ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011 Service-management system requirementsISO/IEC 20000-2:2012 Guidance on the application of service-management systemsISO/IEC 20000-3:2012 Guidance on scope definition and applicability of ISO/IEC 20000-1ISO/IEC TR 20000-4:2010 Process-reference modelISO/IEC TR 20000-5:2013 Exemplar implementation plan for ISO/IEC 20000-1ISO/IEC TR 20000-10:2013 Concepts and terminology

Total Quality Management 517

to part 1 are often confused, or used indistinctively, with the standard as a whole. Note that

ISO 20000 certification scheme formerly promoted by IT Service Management Forum

(itSMF), and been managed by The APM Group Ltd since 2011, is the most widely recog-

nised and the only one of worldwide reach. Complementally, certifications emitted under

this scheme are collected and published in a website (APMG, 2012).

3. Aims and methodology

The aim of the present study is to determine the current impact of ISO 20000, and forecast

its impact over coming years. It should be pointed out that only one previous study has

been found on ISO 20000, with a much narrower scope and using previously used meth-

odologies. Based on the registrations of certifications issued by The APM Group Ltd, it

carries out a basic analysis of geographical distribution by continent. Its main contribution

is the study of the incentives and benefits provided by ISO 20000, based on a survey of

companies registered in German-speaking countries (Germany, Austria, Switzerland

and Liechtenstein). Although with a very preliminary focus, Disterer (2012) said study

shows the interest ISO 20000 may generate in the near future.

Considering this previous research, this article will provide answers to two relevant

questions. Firstly, whether ISO 20000 diffusion follows patterns similar to those of the

other MS; in other words, the degree to which the diffusion of standards depends on

their area of implementation. And secondly, placing the standard in context in order to

use it as a useful indicator of implementation trends for other IT standards or frameworks,

the uncertified nature of which makes a quantitative analysis of their implementation and

use problematic.

For the above reasons, the present article adapts methodologies used in previous MS

studies – and specifically on the most analysed standards, ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 to ISO

20000. It should be noted that many of these previous studies are qualitative, focusing their

analysis on the motivations, benefits and problems of management system standards

implementation and/or certification (Gotzamani & Tsiotras, 2002). Some quantitative

studies have also been detected. These generally use the number of certifications for a

specific MS, and they focus on the study of their historical diffusion or geographical dis-

tribution, and on the correlation between the number of certificates and any economic or

financial indicator (Sampaio, Saraiva, & Guimaraes Rodrigues, 2009a). Some authors also

infer future diffusion of the various standards (Casadesus, Marimon, & Alonso, 2010).

Knowledge of the geographical distribution of certifications and their evolution over

time is fundamental to the present study with regard to the diffusion analysis. But when

comparing different countries, beyond using the absolute number of certifications in a

given country, we must choose to use the ISO Intensity Indicator originally proposed

by Saraiva and Duarte (2003) and adopted by Marimon, Casadesus, and Heras (2006).

In order to calculate the Certification Intensity index for a standard in a given country,

the number of countries’ certifications has been divided by the country’s gross domestic

product (GDP), which is weighted according to the same relationship regarding the

total for the area, as reflected in the formula.

Certification Intensitycountry =ISO Certificatescountry/GDPcountry

ISO Certificatesarea/GDParea

.

Given that we carry out a worldwide analysis, and not considering divisions in it, our

area is the sum of values for all the countries analysed.


Although many indicators could be chosen to measure the country’s size, the advan-

tage of GDP is its availability for every country and its robustness against other more

specific indicators.

This way, we can get an indicator which characterises each country according to the

proportion of certificates regarding their economic weight, allowing a fair comparison

among countries regardless of their size.

Regarding the study of diffusion over time, we propose the use of the logistic equation

to model the worldwide evolution of ISO 20000 certifications, as used initially by Fran-

ceschini, Galleto and Gianni (2004) analysing ISO 9001. This model is based on the

hypothesis that the increase in a standard’s certification is proportional to the number of

existing certifications, and that the growth ratio is also a function of the number of certi-

fications, but that, as long as conditions do not change, there is also an upper limit to the

number of certifications possible, called saturation limit or point. According to this model,

the number of certifications existing at any given moment can be obtained by applying the

logistic function defined by the following formula:

N(t) =N0K

(K − N0)e−r0t + N0

.

In this expression, N is the number of certificates at a given moment (time function). N0

is the initial value for the number of certifications. K is the expected maximum, or certi-

fication saturation point and r0 the curve gradient. It is thus possible to interpolate histori-

cal certification data, fitting a logistic curve and projecting the number of future

certifications. This permits the calculation of the expected value of N for any given

time, whether past or future.

This methodology has been widely used and contrasted in diffusion analysis carried

out for other MS by Marimon et al. (2006), Marimon, Heras, and Casadesus (2009),

Marimon, Llach, and Bernardo (2011), Llach, Marimon, and Bernardo (2010) and Casa-

desus et al. (2010). Obtained forecasts have been very close to real certifications of sub-

sequent years.

Following a description of the data gathering process, the following Results section is

therefore divided into two large blocks. The first is dedicated to analysing the international

impact of ISO 20000, considering the geographical and time distribution and analysing it

with respect to other MS. The second block focuses on a forecasting of certifications based

on the logistic curve, and also compares them with those of other standards.

4. Results

Data collection

All of the quantitative worldwide studies on other ISO standards reviewed are based on

data obtained from certificates issued, which ISO collects from the different certification

bodies and publishes annually in The ISO Survey of Management System Standard Certi-

fications (ISO, 2012). This survey unfortunately contains no data for ISO 20000, which

prevents using the same source as previous studies. Therefore, for this research, the first

step was to capture records of certifications available on The APM Group Ltd website

on an ongoing basis (APMG, 2012). This was done in October 2011, December 2011

and May 2012. During this period, the records were extracted and some identified incon-

sistencies reported to The APM Group Ltd, which led to some records being corrected.

Thus, although at the time of writing this article records are no longer published for


certifications prior to 2009, the records collected and analysed started in 2006, just one

year after the first appearance of the standard.

From the set of records obtained, a total of 729 were considered valid for certifications

issued up until December 2011. Later records were discarded as there is no fixed deadline

for publishing certificates and empirically it was noted that many take several months to be

reflected. Therefore, the time period elapsed between those certifications that are con-

sidered for the study (31 December 2011) and the last capture (May 2012) allows to

assume that all certifications published for 2011 have been included.

The following information is available for each record: certified organisation, certifi-

cation date and country. As the certification scheme awards certificates with a validity of

three years, it is possible to know which certificates are valid at any time. One limitation on

this study, probably with very low impact, is the impossibility of detecting which certifi-

cations have not remained valid over the three years due to their not meeting one or both of

the two follow-up audits. Figure 1 shows the time distribution of the worldwide records

obtained cumulatively over time and also records for current certifications. For the discrete

analysis, to be conducted subsequently, a sample is obtained of the number of records with

fewer than three years antiquity at the end of each year.

The work focusing on obtained data obviously implies some limitations very

common in this kind of research. Firstly, the entire analysis implies that the number

of certificates is used as an indicator of a particular standard’s development and diffu-

sion, provided that external conditions do not change substantially (such as legislative

changes that make them mandatory or requirements for contracting). Moreover, it

should also be considered that not all organisations that use MS are certified, or are

obliged to be. And finally, while it may be considered a limitation to use data recollected

from only one accreditor, even if it is the most recognised worldwide and has the largest

number of certifications, it can be considered that this work uses the most consistent

accessible data possible.

International impact of ISO 20000

In order to obtain an initial overview of the impact of ISO 20000 around the world, the first

analysis undertaken was of its current geographical distribution and evolution. To this end,

the certificates to be analysed were classified by geographical area or continent, defined as

Figure 1. ISO 20000 certification records worldwide (from The APM Group Ltd records).


areas, using the same criterion used by ISO in its surveys (ISO, 2012). The same criterion

is later used in determining countries.

Table 2 shows the certificates valid by area at the end of each year. To determine which

certificates are valid, those certificates with over three years’ antiquity are eliminated, as

they are considered to be past their validity date. For each year statistics are given for

absolute number of certificates (N ), percentage of world total (%) and change from pre-

vious year (∂%). All data are from the year 2006 onwards, when implementation of this

standard began.

It is noticeable that until 2009 there is a sharp increase in certifications worldwide, as in

those years certifications nearly double from the previous year (97%), which had seen a

similar increase (94%). By contrast, from 2010 onwards certificates issued worldwide

stagnate, with almost marginal increases of 5%. With regard to the latest trends, the slow-

down seems to be consolidated in 2011, with global growth of only 8%. By area, Europe

stands out as already being in a clear recessionary phase, with a contraction of 218%,

while Asia and North America grow by over 35%. We are therefore now in a phase of

slow global growth, but with a clear geographical redistribution. Asia has taken over

from Europe in the leadership of ISO 20000 certifications, proof of which is that in the

two years between 2009 and 2011 certificates issued in Asia rise from 46% to 56% of

the total.

On a greater level of detail than areas, a disaggregated analysis was performed by

country. With this analysis it is expected that differences or specificities of each national

market come to the surface, behaviour that possibly might be parallel to that of other stan-

dards in the same country. Thus, Table 3 shows the top 15 countries in ISO 20000 certi-

fications, including the number of current certificates and their share of the world total.

This is compared with the 15 countries with the most successful MS certifications in

the world, namely the ISO 9001, ISO 140001 and ISO 27001. The number of certificates

is also shown for ISO 20000.

From the list of leading countries for ISO 20000, Japan stands out as the undisputed

leader due to absolute number of certifications, almost doubling China in second place.

This Asian leadership is confirmed by the presence of four other Asian countries (South

Korea, India, Taiwan and Hong Kong) for a total of 6 of the top 10. Comparing the

number of ISO 20000 certifications with the three aforementioned standards, it could

observed that most countries are leaders for all or several standards. In fact, what is impor-

tant is to observe how all countries situated in first place coincide at the top of other stan-

dards, indicating that countries with a widespread diffusion of general MS such as ISO

9001 and ISO 14001 are also leaders in the more specific field, specifically technology

management, the scope of ISO 20000 and ISO 27001.

It is interesting to note that those countries only appearing in the ISO 20000 list are

countries of a smaller size but with high technological development in services, specifi-

cally Taipei, Hong Kong and Switzerland.

Moreover, it is worth noting the leading countries for the other standards which do not

appear as leaders in the case of ISO 20000: the Russian Federation and France for ISO

9001 and Romania for ISO 27001. Although it would be hazardous to venture an expla-

nation without going into a more detailed study, it is worth noting that not all of the rel-

evant certifying bodies in different countries adhere to the itSMF/AMPG scheme, meaning

they would not be included in this article. This may cause some one-off distortions for a

particular country, but they should not be generalised.

This first exploratory analysis certainly indicates some trends, which might clearly be

erroneous if the size of the different countries is not taken into account. In order to improve


Table 2. Currently valid certificates.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

N % N % ∂% N % ∂% N % ∂% N % ∂% N % ∂%

Africa and East Asia 0 0% 1 2% 2 1% 100% 6 2% 200% 10 2% 67% 12 2% 20%Asia 5 83% 27 50% 440% 69 47% 156% 149 46% 116% 213 46% 43% 287 49% 35%Oceania 0 0% 1 2% 4 3% 300% 5 2% 25% 4 1% 220% 1 0% 275%Central and South America 0 0% 1 2% 2 1% 100% 6 2% 200% 13 3% 117% 16 3% 23%North America 0 0% 6 11% 11 7% 83% 23 7% 109% 30 6% 30% 43 7% 43%Europe 1 17% 18 33% 1700% 59 40% 228% 135 42% 129% 198 42% 47% 223 38% 13%World total 6 54 800% 147 172% 324 120% 468 44% 582 24%

52

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the analysis, and as detailed in the methodology section, certification intensity is used. This

is calculated by means of number of certificates and GDP and population size as indicators

of country size. This information was obtained from data published by the World Bank for

2011, except for Taipei, for which the World Bank provides no data. Data from the Inter-

national Monetary Found were used for this country. Thus, Table 4 shows the certification

Table 3. Top 15 countries for each standard.

ISO 20000 The APM Group Ltd registersyear 2011 ISO Survey of Certifications year 2011

Rank ISO 20000 CertShare(%) ISO 9001 ISO 14001 ISO 27001

1 Japan 85 15 China China Japan2 China 47 8 Italy Japan India3 UK 43 7 Japan Italy UK4 USA 41 7 Spain Spain China5 Republic of

Korea40 7 Germany UK Taipei, China

6 India 40 7 UK Republic ofKorea

Romania

7 Taipei, China 27 5 India Romania Spain8 Germany 23 4 France France Italy9 Hong Kong 19 3 Brazil Germany Germany

10 Czech Republic 18 3 Republic ofKorea

USA USA

11 Spain 16 3 USA Czech Republic Czech Republic12 Switzerland 15 3 Romania India Poland13 Italy 14 2 Czech Republic Sweden Republic of

Korea14 Brazil 11 2 Russian

FederationBrazil Hungary

15 Austria 11 2 The Netherlands Thailand Bulgaria

Table 4. Certification intensity in ISO 20000 top 15 countries.

CountryISO 20000 ISO 9001 ISO 14001 ISO 27001Intensity Intensity Intensity Intensity

Japan 1.46 0.51 1.14 3.73China 0.65 2.37 2.47 0.53UK 1.78 0.95 1.38 1.77USA 0.27 0.09 0.07 0.07Republic of Korea 3.62 1.29 2.16 0.54India 2.18 0.85 0.50 2.44Taipei 5.67 0.92 0.95 5.21Germany 0.65 0.73 0.39 0.38Hong Kong 7.87 0.80 0.89 1.28Czech Republic 8.44 3.12 4.57 4.42Spain 1.08 1.88 2.42 1.36Switzerland 2.38 0.85 0.84 0.33Italy 0.64 4.14 2.11 0.72Brazil 0.45 0.60 0.31 0.06Austria 2.65 1.22 0.51 0.45


intensity of the four analysed management system standards in the 15 leading countries in

terms of ISO 20000 certifications, confirming the previous analysis. In general, those

countries that have had a higher certification intensity for standards such as ISO 9001

and ISO 14001 also do so for ISO 20000. For example, the Czech Republic is the

country with the highest intensity in three of the four standards, whereas the USA has

three of the lowest four. This parallelism is seen even more clearly looking only at the

two standards relating to technology: ISO 20000 and ISO 27001. To this end, it is suffi-

cient to observe the behaviour of countries like Taipei, Japan and the UK. In short, this

highlights the huge impact countries can have in the diffusion of these standards when

it comes to implementing laws, promotional activities and stakeholders previous experi-

ence (firms, consultants, . . . ).

In order to analyse this aspect, namely, the parallelism detected between implemen-

tations of the different standards, the number of certificates and intensity of certificates

of each country were correlated, obtaining the results shown in Table 5. This confirms

the previous results, by identifying first a clear correlation between countries with a

higher number of ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 certifications, but also a clear relationship

between certification intensity.

However, what is most novel is finding that there is a clear correlation between the

countries with most ISO 20000 and most ISO 27001 certifications, also confirming the

first findings. This high correlation also appears when analysing countries’ certification

intensity for both standards, indicating that countries with an intensive implementation

of ISO 20000 also have the same for ISO 27001. This therefore confirms that if ISO

9001 and ISO 14001 are correlated together, so are ISO 20000 and ISO 27001. The appear-

ance of these pairs in correlations suggests the existence of countries which are clearly

more ‘technically advanced’ or more ‘service-oriented’ than others, a finding which

should be analysed in more detail.

Further analysis also shows a negative correlation between a country’s certification

intensity and its GDP. This should be interpreted as the countries with the highest GDP

being less intensive in terms of certification. These results coincide with the initial percep-

tion of the great impact these regulations have in small-sized countries with great techno-

logical potential.

Diffusion of ISO 20000 and future outlook

Having analysed the current situation, the aim of this paper is to predict future behaviour.

In this respect, and as mentioned above, several previous studies (Franceschini, Galetto, &

Giannı, 2004; Marimon et al., 2006) support the use of the logistic curve to model the be-

haviour in time of the number of certifications for a previous standard, specifically ISO

9001 and ISO 14001. Therefore, we performed a non-linear regression to forecast the

future status of ISO 20000 certifications, allowing us to determine the value of the depen-

dent variables and obtain the equation of the logistic curve that best fits existing data. The

same exercise was conducted previously for the other reference standards using ISO data,

with the results provided in Table 6.

First, the obtained goodness-of-fit for the resulting model from the regression analysis is

observed, as the determination coefficients (R squared) are greater than 0.99 in all cases.

This allows us to obtain values for the three dependent variables (N0, k and r0) that

characterise each of the logistic curves for each standard. Furthermore, the parameters of

the curves were subjected to a confidence interval of 95%, with the result that the values

obtained represent the lower confidence limit (LL) and upper confidence limit (UL).


Table 5. Pearson correlations.

ISO9001

ISO14001

ISO20000

ISO27001

Int ISO9001

Int ISO14001

Int ISO20000

Int ISO27001 GDP

GDP percapita

ISO 9001 Pearson’scorrelation

1 .932∗∗ .219 .118 .524∗ .302 2.407 2.228 .307 2.366

Sig. (bilateral) .000 .433 .676 .045 .273 .132 .413 .266 .180ISO 14001 Pearson’s

correlation.932∗∗ 1 .463 .343 .342 .330 2.350 2.097 .345 2.354


correlation.219 .463 1 .856∗∗ 2.300 2.048 2.209 .296 .478 2.073


correlation.118 .343 .856∗∗ 1 2.181 2.028 2.180 .431 .224 .055

Sig. (bilateral) .676 .210 .000 .518 .922 .521 .109 .421 .845Int ISO

9001Pearson’s

correlation.524∗ .342 2.300 2.181 1 .764∗∗ .127 .093 2.269 2.269


14001Pearson’s

correlation.302 .330 2.048 2.028 .764∗∗ 1 .416 .363 2.265 2.345


20000Pearson’s

correlation2.407 2.350 2.209 2.180 .127 .416 1 .578∗ 2.516∗ 2.144


27001Pearson’s

correlation2.228 2.097 .296 .431 .093 .363 .578∗ 1 2.275 2.260

Sig. (bilateral) .413 .732 .284 .109 .742 .184 .024 .322 .350GDP Pearson’s

correlation.307 .345 .478 .224 2.269 2.265 2.516∗ 2.275 1 .062

Sig. (bilateral) .266 .207 .071 .421 .332 .340 .049 .322 .826GDP per

capitaPearson’s

correlation2.366 2.354 2.073 .055 2.269 2.345 2.144 2.260 .062 1

Sig. (bilateral) .180 .195 .797 .845 .332 .208 .609 .350 .826

∗∗Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (bilateral).∗Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (bilateral).

To

tal

Qu

ality

Ma

na

gem

ent

52

5

Table 6. Data for logistic curve regressions.

ISO 20000 ISO 9001 ISO 14001 ISO 27001

DF Sum sq DF Sum sq DF Sum sq DF Sum sq

Regression 3 690295.393 3 8.691E12 3 2.895E11 3 8.960E8Residual 3 490.607 17 1.409E10 10 2.359E8 3 899647.049Uncorrected total 6 690786.000 20 8.705E12 13 2.897E11 6 8.969E8Corrected total 5 272610.000 19 2.746E12 12 9.208E10 5 1.070E8R squared 0.998 0.995 0.997 0.992

ISO 20000 ISO 9001 ISO 14001 ISO 27001

Value LL UL Value LL UL Value LL UL Value LL ULN0 18.347 4.731 31.963 64336.026 48974.616 79697.436 19658.660 15812.605 23504.715 5575.359 4171.664 6979.054K 636.955 551.526 722.383 1271334.639 1177215.774 1365453.504 358981.003 313144.253 404817.754 25775.253 8038.444 43512.061R0 1.162 0.858 1.467 0.264 0.234 0.295 0.331 0.291 0.370 0.416 0.138 0.693

52

6S

.C

ots

an

dM

.C

asa

desu

s

In the cases of the reference standards used, ISO 9001 and ISO 14001, there is further

confirmation of the findings identified in previous studies (Marimon et al., 2006; Llach

et al., 2010), even including the new available data. Thus, the behaviour of both standards

is perfectly modellable following the pattern of the logistic curve, confirming the predic-

tions made by previous studies while generating new forecasts for the coming years.

Specifically, the saturation level is on 1,200,000 ISO 9001 certifications in 2016, and

350,000 ISO 14001 in 2019. Table 7 shows the characteristics of the generated model,

and Figures 2 and 3 show the worldwide forecast evolution over time. These figures

show the points representing certifications for each year and the logistic curve with the par-

ameters obtained in the regression. The dotted lines represent the curves corresponding to

the upper and lower limits at a 95% confidence interval. Thus, it is clearly observed that all

points representing certification values remain within the confidence intervals for both

standards.

However, the prior analysis of the ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 standards serves only to

reinforce the idea that a parallel analysis could be performed, with some robustness, for the

ISO 20000. Considering that in the exploratory analysis some similarities have already

been detected in terms of countrywide impact, it is expected that there might also be

Table 7. ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 results of forecastings.

ISO 9001forecast

Marimonet al. (2006)

Llachet al.

(2010) CurrentISO 14001

forecast

Marimonet al.

(2006) Current

Certificatesup to

2002 2008 2011 Certificatesup to

2002 2011

N0 43102.8528 233499.92 64336.026 N0 1013.1052 19658.660K 817539.0186 1327135.81 1271334.639 K 77416.9573 358981.003r0 0.3693 0.191 0.264 r0 0.699 0.331

Figure 2. Forecast ISO 9001 certifications.


parallels in their future evolution. Thus, for the case of ISO 20000 it is observed that, with

data available for the years 2006–2011, the model fits a near-perfect logistic curve, as

shown by the R squared of 0.998 (Figure 4). It is also observed that the saturation level

for the last point is very high, this being the value of 582 for certifications valid for

Figure 3. Forecast ISO 14001 certifications.

Figure 4. ISO 20000 logistic curve.


2011, very close to the value at which certifications should be saturated, which according

to the model is 637 in 2013. According to these estimates, then, the latest data would indi-

cate that ISO 20000 certification is at 91.6% saturation point.

Additionally, although it is not the main objective of this article, it is worth noting that

ISO 27001 certificates also adjust their evolution to a logistic curve. No references to

earlier studies have been found to put this in context. The saturation point for this standard,

as seen in Figure 5, is expected for 2016, with nearly 25,000 certificates globally.

Having defined the above four models, each on its corresponding scale, it is possible to

scale the curve, not to the absolute value of the number of certifications but to the percen-

tage of the theoretical saturation point (K). Figure 6 shows the four superimposed curves

as percentages of their saturation points.

It is easy to observe graphically how the slope of the curve, which is determined by the

parameter r0 of each standard, represents the speed at which each becomes saturated. A

greater slope indicates fewer years to achieve this level K saturation. Thus we have:

ISO 9001 (r0 ¼ 0.264), ISO 14001 (r0 ¼ 0.331), ISO 27001 (r0 ¼ 0.416) and ISO

20000 (r0 ¼ 1.162). Two very important conclusions can be drawn from this which

have not been detected previously in the literature. Firstly, each new standard that has

appeared on the market has undergone a significantly faster diffusion than the previous

one, confirming a learning effect for the participating actors (companies, consultants, cer-

tifying bodies, ...) or a more rapid integration of new standards in the management system

of the company. And secondly, it can be observed that all models, regardless of their

impact in terms of number of implementations, reach global market saturation by approxi-

mately 2016.

In fact, this diffusion of different standards seems to reinforce the proposal that the

logistic curve model can, over time, be integrated into a higher- order curve, with a

Figure 5. ISO 27001 logistic curve.


possible fractal logistic curve appearing or a sequence of linked curves (Modis, 1994).

Within this, smaller scale logistic curves would exist as components of larger logistic

curves. It may prove possible to confirm that this is precisely the case with the diffusion

of different MS.

5. Conclusions

This paper has explored the impact of ISO 20000, the first international standard that

defines a service management system. Initially designed for IT services, the standard

can be applied to other types of services, as demonstrated by various real-life experiences.

This flexibility is one of the characteristics that can endow this a standard with a promising

future and a significant capacity to evolve. In fact, it has been detected how certification

progressed very fast until the end of 2009, even if this increase has slowed sharply in the

past two years.

In order to explore the impact of this standard, this article is focused on various ana-

lyses. Initially, the impact study by continents permitted the observation of a clear dom-

inance of Asia and Europe, with a slight downward trend in Europe and slightly

increasing in Asia and North America. Moreover, in the country analysis the importance

of smaller countries with strong technological capabilities is detected (Taipei, South

Korea, Switzerland, . . . ). In addition, it should also be noted that the leading countries

Figure 6. Logistic curves superimposed as percentage of saturation point.


in ISO 20000 certifications largely coincide with the leading countries for the other ana-

lysed standards ISO 27001, ISO 9001 and ISO 14001, whether in terms of the absolute

number of certifications or ISO 20000 certification intensity. There is also a strong corre-

lation between countries with most ISO 20000 and ISO 27001 certifications, from which it

can be deduced that countries’ promotion and regulatory activities have a major impact on

the diffusion of standards.

Furthermore, forecasts have been made for certifications of the standard, using a logis-

tic curve model that has proved very effective in previous studies on other MS. In the case

of ISO 20000, this model has also proved itself to be very strong, and it has been deduced

from this that, if there are no major changes in the environment, the number of certificates

is already very close to anticipated saturation levels: just over 600 certifications

worldwide.

The most interesting contribution of this paper, however, is related precisely to the

analysis provided by these projection models. It has been detected that each new standard

requires much less time to reach its saturation level. In fact, it has been reduced from

almost 20 years for ISO 9001 to about 6 years for ISO 20000. Therefore, the lower diffu-

sion a standard has with regard to the total number of certifications, the faster it approaches

its saturation level. This suggests an important learning process on the part of the organ-

isations involved (companies, certifying bodies, etc.) and possibly a high capacity for inte-

gration of new management system standards previously existing in the company. Finally,

it has been also detected that the four standards analysed will reach their saturation level at

the same time, around the year 2016.

All of these contributions can be added to those of the only one previous study, Dis-

terer (2012), detected in the field on the diffusion of ISO 20000.

The main limitation of this study is its use of the only possible source of data, offered

by a single accreditation body. While it is very prestigious, drawing together a large

number of certifying bodies, it does not include all of them. Thus, in each country different

certifying bodies dominate or capture a greater market share, and as not all of them are

accredited under the same scheme, isolated cases of countries with a number of certifica-

tions that do not appear in this study may be seen. To this must be added, like all analyses

in the field, the impossibility of including companies that apply this standard but are not

certified. In any event, it would be desirable for future studies that ISO collect and publish

certification data for ISO 20000, thus facilitating comparisons.

Finally, it is worth pointing out that further study will be required on the behaviour of

the standard, not only to validate or refute the present research, but to do so in light of new

evidence as it emerges. It would be interesting to study the future evolution of certifica-

tions in the light of a larger set of data in order to compare the actual performance with

the forecasts included in this article.

It would also be interesting to carry out a detailed study of the motivations, challenges,

benefits and integration of ISO 20000 with other MS, aspects not analysed in the literature,

which could include not only companies with current certification, but also those which

have abandoned the certification after having it and even companies that have dismissed

the idea of certification despite using the standard.

Note

1. Use of conventionsThis study makes repeated reference to management standards ISO/IEC 20000, in both their2005 and 2011 versions, as well as ISO 9001 (2008), ISO 14001 (2004) and ISO/IEC 27001


(2005). For the purpose of simplicity, and following conventions that are widely used in publi-cations, they are referred to here in a generic, simplified form as ISO 20000, ISO 9001, ISO14001 and ISO 27001, respectively. The use of specific names or versions is reserved forthose cases that require an explicit reference or for the sake of clarity.

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Exploring the service management standard ISO 20000