-
MEMAHAMIPEMANASANGLOBAL&PERUBAHANIKLIM
FabbyTumiwa
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EFEKRUMAHKACA
CC
2
IPCC 2007
-
KESEIMBANGANENERGIRADIASI
3IPCC 2007
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Efek rumah kaca mengakibatkan terjadinyaEfek rumah kaca
mengakibatkan terjadinyafenomena Pemanasan Global.
Radiasi matahari yangdipantulkan oleh bumi diserapy g p poleh
atmosfer bumi yangmengandung gasgasrumah kaca.
Peningkatan konsentrasi GasRumah Kaca (GRK)diatmosfer terjadi
akibat berbagai aktivitas manusia.
-
DAFTARGASGASRUMAHKACA
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Gas Rumah Kaca dihasilkan dari berbagaiGasRumah Kaca dihasilkan
dari berbagaiaktivitas:pembakaran bahan bakar fossildalamuntuk
kegiatan transportasi,pembangkitang p , p genergi,proses
industri;pertanian,penggunaanlahan,pembabatan hutan,dan
lainsebagainya.
Dalam suatu siklus karbon,GRKdikeluarkan dandiserap.Penambahan
konsentrasi GRKpmenyebabkan kemampuan penyerapan karbonoleh alam
berkurang.
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SIKLUS KARBONSIKLUSKARBON
8IPCC 2007
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Lebih banyak CO2yangtertinggal di Atmosphere
MoreCO2 RemainsintheAtmosphereHuman activities have pumped
excessive
amountsHumanactivitieshavepumpedexcessiveamountsofcarbondioxide(CO2)intotheatmosphere.NaturalprocessesthatabsorbCO2cannotkeepup.Astheoceanabsorbscarbondioxide,itbecomesmore
acidic This combined with increasing
oceanmoreacidic.Thiscombinedwithincreasingoceantemperatures,diminishesitsabilitytocontinueabsorbingCO2.Asaresult,moreCO2staysintheatmosphere.In
1960 a metric ton (1 000 kilograms; ~2
205In1960,ametricton(1,000kilograms;~2,205pounds)ofCO2emissionsresultedinaround400kilograms(~881pounds)ofCO2remainingintheatmosphere(Figure1).In2006,ametrictonofCO2emissions
results in around 450 kilograms
(~992emissionsresultsinaround450kilograms(~992pounds)remainingintheatmosphere.[2]
HenceatonofCO2emissionstodayresultsinmoreheattrappingcapacityintheatmospherethanthesameton
emitted decades agotonemitteddecadesago.
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Apa yangmenyebabkan peningkatantemperatur global?temperatur
global?(a) Hasil modeldan observasi
peningkatan temperatur dari prosesalami
(b) Hasil modeldan observasipeningkatan temperatur
akibataktivitas manusia
(c) Hasil model dan observasi(c) Hasil modeldan
observasipeningkatan temperatur akibat prosesalami dan aktivitas
manusia.
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Konsentrasi CO2 Atmosferik Global
-
Thermometers:globalThasrisen0.8Cin125yrs
C
G b h 95%Greenbarsshow95%confidenceintervals
Upwardtrendcontinues;2005wasanewrecord;wereat0.8Cabove18801900average;0.5Csince1970.
J.Hansenetal.,PNAS103:14288293(26Sept2006)
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DAMPAKPENINGKATANPEMANASANGLOBAL
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KENAIKANMUKALAUTGLOBAL
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KENAIKANPERMUKAANAIRLAUT
IPCC
2007:IPCC2007:for19612003:Data1.8mm/yearModels1.2mm/year
LinearTrend19932008:3.2mm/yearIPCCTARbestestimate:2.0mm/year
17Updatedfrom:Rahmstorfetal.Science2007
-
SeaLevelRisebyEndofThisCenturyNewanalysisprovidesestimatesforsealevelrisebytheendofthis
t b t l ibl l l d h i ll ibl th h
lcenturybetweenaplausiblelevelandaphysicallypossiblethoughlesslikelylevel.Source(IPCC2007andPfeffer
etal.2008)
-
A hl CUnequivocalWarmingofEarth..
AshleyCooperPicimpact/Corbis
Thaw
q g f
Source: IPCC, UCS, 2007
N
A
S
A
U
S
G
S
AvalancheFlood
B
B
C
A
P
Heatwave
Coral BleachingDroughte rs
AmazonDrought
UK gov AS
A
CoralBleaching
GlacierMelt
R
.
R
o
g
e
r
s
/
R
e
u
t
e Drought
NationalParkService
UK.gov
N
A
h
z
a
d
N
o
o
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a
n
i
c
t
u
r
e
s
S
h
e
h
S
t
i
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P
i
c
Earthhaswarmed0.74C(TARpredicted0.6ConBAU)SeaLevelRise
-
FutureRisks:b f ( )
FutureRisks:FutureRisks:b f ( )
FutureRisks:b f ( )RiseAbove19801999of12C(1.83.6F)
Increasesomecereal
RiseAbove19801999of23C(3.65.4F)~15%oft t i l
AshleyCooperPicimpact/Corbis
RiseAbove19801999of34C(5.47.2F)~40%ofterrestrial A
F
P
Increasedwateravailability high
RiseAbove19801999of45C(7.29.0F)Significantextinctions
Morenavigable
productivitymidhighlatitudes
r
m
t
r
a
i
l
s
.
o
r
g
Upto30%ofspeciesatincreasingriskof extinction
terrestrialbiospherebecomesnetcarbonsource
terrestrialbiospherebecomesnetcarbonsource
Decreasecerealproductivitysomeregions
a
r
m
t
r
a
i
l
s
.
o
r
g
B
B
C
A availabilityhighlatitudes
extinctionsaroundtheglobe
BaardNaes BBC
northernsearoutes
Decreasesomecereal
F
a
a
i
l
s
.
o
r
g
Decreasefreshwater
ofextinction
.
o
r
g
r
g
Millionsmorepeoplecould
N
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r
a
n
i
s
Decreaseallcereal
F
a
a
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s
.
o
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g
I dil
d
r
e
n
s
H
o
s
p
i
t
a
l
a
k
l
a
n
d
Increaseddeaths,disease,andinjurydueto floodsA P
/
T
P
I
T
r
i
b
u
n
e
Most corals
cerealproductivitylowlatitudesF
a
r
m
t
r
a availabilityforbillionpeopleShehzadNoorani
UNICEF
NewYorkTimes
a
n
r
i
A
P
F
a
r
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t
r
a
i
l
s
F
a
r
m
t
r
a
i
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s
.
o
r
experiencecoastalfloodingeachyear
S
h
e
h
z
a
d
N
S
t
i
l
l
P
i
c
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u
r
e
s
Widespreadcoralmortality
A
U
S
G
S Largeincreaseareaburned
productivitylowlatitudesF a
r
m
t
r
a
~30%ofglobalcoastalwetlandslost
F
W
S
5m
Increases inUK gov
Increasedmortalityfromdroughts
Altered
Increasedfrequencyofcardio
C
h
i
O
a tofloodsA
MostcoralsbleachedDisappearanceof
Glaciers
w
w
.
s
o
u
t
h
a
m
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c
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u
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Replacementoftropicalforestby
D
a
d
o
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N
A
S
Committolongtermicesheetmelt
t ib ti f
Increasesincoastalwatertemperatureworsenscholera
UK.gov Altereddistributionofdiseasevectors
cardiorespiratorydiseasesduetoclimateinduced
N
O
A
A
w
w
e
x
p
savannaineasternAmazonSource:
IPCC, UCS, 2007Source: IPCC, UCS, 2007
contributionof46meterssealevelrise
abundanceSource: IPCC, UCS, 2007
smog
Source: IPCC, UCS, 2007
-
WHOestimatesclimatechangealreadycausing150,000premature
deaths/yr in 2000prematuredeaths/yrin2000
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INSTITUTEFORESSENTIALSERVICESREFORM(IESR)
www.iesrindonesia.org
TERIMA KASIH
www.iesr indonesia.org
[email protected]
TERIMA KASIH
