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FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020

FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

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Page 1: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY2020

Page 2: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

Agenda

Introduction

District Growth

Addressing Growth

Conclusion

Page 3: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

Introduction

Over 90 years in business

Planning/design of over 1200 K-12 projects

Constructed schools for over 65 Districts

M. B. Kahn partner for over 20 years

Conducted over 90 similar enrollment analyses

THE STUDY TEAMM. B. Kahn:

H. Dale Holden & Associates:

Page 4: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

Introduction

Page 5: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

Agenda

Introduction

District Growth

Addressing Growth

Conclusion

Page 6: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

District Growth

Enrollment Analysis

1. Population Trends

Page 7: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

District Growth

1. Population Trends

2. Building Permit DataBuilding Permits

2015-2019Building Permits

2010-2015

Enrollment Analysis

Page 8: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

District Growth

Page 9: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

District Growth

1. Population Trends

2. Building Permit Data

3. Actual Enrollments

Enrollment Analysis

Page 10: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

District Growth

Page 11: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

District Growth

1. Population Trends

2. Building Permit Data

3. Actual Enrollments

4. Birth Data

Enrollment Analysis

Page 12: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

District Growth

1. Population Trends

2. Building Permit Data

3. Actual Enrollments

4. Birth Data

Five-Year Enrollment Projections

Enrollment Analysis

Page 13: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

District Growth

Page 14: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

District Growth

Page 15: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

Agenda

Introduction

District Growth

Addressing Growth

Conclusion

Page 16: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

Addressing Growth

North South

Page 17: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

DUNCANELEMENTARY

LYMANELEMENTARY

JAMES F. BYRNESHIGH SCHOOL

BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY

D.R. HILLMIDDLE

BEECH SPRINGSINTERMEDIATE

WELLFORDELEMENTARY

REIDVILLEELEMENTARY

ABNER CREEKELEMENTARY

RIVER RIDGEELEMENTARY

FLORENCE CHAPELMIDDLE

BERRY SHOALSINTERMEDIATE

*incl. 2020 addition

96%

96%

Addressing Growth

School Year

2019-20

*11-dayenrollmentsNorth South

Page 18: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

Addressing Growth

Page 19: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

DUNCANELEMENTARY*

LYMANELEMENTARY*

JAMES F. BYRNESHIGH SCHOOL

BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY

D.R. HILLMIDDLE

BEECH SPRINGSINTERMEDIATE

WELLFORDELEMENTARY*

94%

90%

105%

90%99%

90%

BERRY SHOALSINTERMEDIATE

91%

FLORENCE CHAPELMIDDLE

111%

RIVER RIDGEELEMENTARY*

99%

ABNER CREEKELEMENTARY*

*incl. 2020 addition

REIDVILLEELEMENTARY*

93%

School Year

2024-25

Addressing Growth

*five-year projected enrollmentsNorth South

Page 20: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

Addressing Growth

Developing Solutions

1. Multiple concepts considered• Address all needs?• Affordable?• District operations?• Prepare for future?

Page 21: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

Addressing Growth

Developing Solutions

1. Multiple concepts considered:• Address all needs?• Affordable?• District operations?• Prepare for future?

2. Narrowed to two viable concepts:• Shift 4th Grade to Intermediate• Omit Intermediate Grade Level

Page 22: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

Addressing Growth

Developing Solutions

1. Multiple concepts considered:• Address all needs?• Affordable?• District operations?• Prepare for future?

2. Narrowed to two viable concepts:• Shift 4th Grade to Intermediate• Omit Intermediate Grade Level

3. Two important notes:• Not in priority order• Same cost range

Page 23: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY

NEW INTERMEDIATE

SCHOOL(grades 4-6)

ADD D.R. HILLMIDDLE

LYMANELEMENTARY(grades K-3)

*incl. 2020 addition

NEW INTERMEDIATE

& MIDDLESCHOOL

(grades 4-8)

ADDBEECH SPRINGSINTERMEDIATE

(grades 4-6)

ADD(phase 2)

JAMES F. BYRNESHIGH SCHOOL

RIVER RIDGEELEMENTARY(grades K-3)

REIDVILLEELEMENTARY(grades K-3)

FLORENCE CHAPELMIDDLE

DUNCANELEMENTARY(grades K-3)

WELLFORDELEMENTARY(grades K-3)

ADDBERRY SHOALSINTERMEDIATE

(grades 4-6)

Under constr.

ABNER CREEKELEMENTARY(grades K-3)

Addressing Growth

Shift 4th Grade to Intermediate

Page 24: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

New School

New Addition

New School

New Addition

New Addition

New Addition

Advantages:• No land purchase required• Minor grade structure changes• All elementary schools gain capacity• Least amount of rezoning (new schools only)• Most remaining capacity available

Disadvantages:• Unbalanced feeder system• Small new middle school (compared to current)• Fewer planned expansions available

Addressing Growth

Shift 4th Grade to Intermediate

Page 25: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY

WELLFORDELEMENTARY

*incl. 2020 addition

BERRY SHOALSELEMENTARY

RIVER RIDGEELEMENTARY

ADD(phase 2)

JAMES F. BYRNESHIGH SCHOOL

REIDVILLEELEMENTARY

LYMANELEMENTARY

DUNCANELEMENTARY

FLORENCE CHAPELMIDDLE

D.R. HILLMIDDLE

BEECH SPRINGSMIDDLE

NEW ELEMENTARY

SCHOOL

NEWMIDDLESCHOOL

grades 10-12

grade 9

grades 6-8

grades K-5 ABNER CREEKELEMENTARY

Addressing Growth

Omit Intermediate Grade Level

Page 26: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

New School

New Addition

New School

Addressing Growth

Omit Intermediate Grade Level

Advantages:• Fewer student transitions• Balanced feeder system• Smaller schools• Planned expansions still available• Moderate remaining capacity available• Least disruptive construction

Disadvantages:• Land purchase required (included in estimated cost)• Significant grade structure changes• Moderate rezoning required

Page 27: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

Addressing Growth

Shift 4th Grade to Intermediate Omit Intermediate Grade Level

Page 28: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

Addressing Growth

Shift 4th Grade to Intermediate Omit Intermediate Grade Level

$170M - $180M(either option)

Addressing Growth =

Page 29: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

Agenda

Introduction

District Growth

Addressing Growth

Conclusion

Page 30: FACILITIES AND DEMOGRAPHICS STUDY 2020 · HIGH SCHOOL BYRNES FRESHMAN ACADEMY D.R. HILL MIDDLE BEECH SPRINGS INTERMEDIATE WELLFORD ELEMENTARY* 94% 90% 105% 99% 90% 90% BERRY SHOALS

Thank you.