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FDI: Source of Sustainable Growth Africa Foreign Investors Survey 2005 2007 Africa Day Symposium Yoshiteru Uramoto Deputy to the Director General United Nations Industrial Development Organization. Comparison with Macro level FDI statistics. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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www.unido.org/afripanet
Tokyo Conference May 2007
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION
FDI: Source of Sustainable Growth
Africa Foreign Investors Survey 2005
2007 Africa Day Symposium
Yoshiteru Uramoto
Deputy to the Director General
United Nations Industrial Development Organization
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Tokyo Conference May 2007
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION
Comparison with Macro level FDI statistics
▶ Survey results suggest that inward investment flows measured by the balance of payments (BoP) of UNCTAD and IMF may understate the actual level of FDI in Africa
The number of foreign affiliates identified by survey was in some cases larger than the population of subsidiaries of TNCs recorded in BoP statistics.
Enterprise level surveys capture smaller units Some types of investment e.g. re-invested earnings only
measurable in surveys
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UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION
UNIDO African Foreign Investor Surveys ▶ UNIDO has been working
with African IPAs since 2000 to improve their capacity to stimulate growth through investment
▶ The surveys measure: Impact of investment
climate on investor perceptions and actions
Impact of investor actions on domestic economy
▶ The scope of the survey is expanding and will cover more than 30 countries
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UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION
▶ In total 1216 companies participated▶ The response rate was 35% (3484 companies
received a questionnaire)
Sample size and response rate
94(27%)88
(57%)
61(30%)
118(24%)
140(34%)
76(63%)
52(23%)
64(35%)
99 (34%)
42(35%)
50(48%)
104(28%)
86(35%) 80
(63%)62
(81%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Burkin
a Faso
Camero
on
Cote d'I
voire
Ethiop
iaGhan
aGuin
eaKen
ya
Madagas
carMala
wi Mali
Mozambiq
ueNige
ria
Senega
l
Tanzan
ia, UR
Uganda
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•Origin
•Organizational structure
•Market orientation
•Sub-sectors
•Share structure
•Age
•Growth
•Productivity
•Re-investment
PERFORMANCE IMPACTINVESTOR GROUP
•Local content
•Employment growth
•Training
•Technology transfer
INVESTOR PERCEPTION
•Importance and change of location factors
•IPA assessment
Measure investment according to investor groups Measure Investment other than in extractive industries (especially in Africa) Assess the relation between business environment and performance
Data Analyses:
Purpose of 2005 Survey
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UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION
55
23 135
85132
3211527
100
62 251175
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980 andbefore
1981-1990 1991-2000 2001 andafter
L-TNC S-TNC FE
58
41255
184
69 237
108
221
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980 andbefore
1981-1990 1991-2000 2001 andafter
North South
Growing presence of entrepreneurs and South investors
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Tokyo Conference May 2007
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION
Sales and employment structure
3.12.8
9.7
34.4
11.0
5.9
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
L-TNC S-TNC FE
Bill
ions
of U
SD
Sum
-
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
Mill
ions
of U
SDM
ean
Sum Mean
Sales Employment
160,117
103,029
113,426523
355
193
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
L-TNC S-TNC FE
Sum
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Mea
n
Sum Mean
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9
Training expenditure per worker
$769
$549
$407
$257
$103 $770
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
South Africa Sub SaharanAfrica
The Americasand Oceania
Europe Middle East andNorthern Africa
Asia
Trai
ning
exp
endi
ture
per
wor
ker (
in U
SD)
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Tokyo Conference May 2007
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION
10
Sales performance for sub-sectors
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
Perc
enta
ge s
ales
gro
wth
(las
t yea
r)
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Tokyo Conference May 2007
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11
Local content
42.5%
33.6%
23.9%
31.0%
41.2%
34.5%
42.0%40.3%
35.5%
20.0% 20.0%
30.0%
22.5%
30.0%
30.0%
40.%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
North South Sub SaharanAfrica
South Africa Middle Eastand Northern
Africa
The Americasand Oceania
Asia Europe0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%Mean Median
224 cases 234 cases 42 cases 26 cases 68 cases 26 cases 96 cases 196 cases
Note: Only manufacturing firms
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12
Local expenditures on material and subcontracting (as % of sales)
22.5%20.4%
13.0%
17.4%
29.9%
17.8%
20.3%
33.6%
12.4%
7.7% 7.4% 7.1%
16.2%
7.6%
11.9%
19.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
North South Sub SaharanAfrica
South Africa Middle Eastand Northern
Africa
The Americasand Oceania
Asia Europe0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%Mean
Median
168 cases 180 cases 35 cases 21 cases 55 cases 22 cases 65 cases 144 cases
Note: Only manufacturing firms
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13
Home regions
239 (20.4%)17 (1.5%)
18 (1.5%)
18 (1.5%)
19 (1.6%)
22 (1.9%)
24 (2%)
27 (2.3%)
32 (2.7%)
38 (3.2%)
38 (3.2%)
39 (3.3%)
42 (3.6%)
47 (4%)
63 (5.4%)
66 (5.6%)
84 (7.2%)
106 (9%)
233 (19.9%)
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250
Rest
Zimbabwe
Côte d'Ivoire
Belgium
Saudi Arabia
Italy
Mauritius
Netherlands
Switzerland
Kenya
Germany
United States
Portugal
China and Hongkong
Lebanon
India
South Africa
United Kingdom
France
Asia14.8%
(MENA)11.2%
South Africa7.2%
SSA12.9%
Europe48%
Americas5.9%%
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14
Three-year performance evaluation
Above expectations
10.9%
In line with expectations
45.4%
Below expectations
31.0%
Well below expectations
7.1%
Well above expectations
5.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
South
Africa
United
State
s
United
King
dom
India
Keny
a
Portu
gal
Netherl
ands Ita
ly
German
y
Franc
e
Leba
non
Switz
erlan
d
China a
nd Hon
gkon
g
Mauriti
us
Perc
enta
ge o
f sam
ple
popu
latio
n
Well below and below expectations In line with expectationsWell above and above expectations
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Inter-Africa investment ▶ South African investors in sample:
Have the highest average investment levels of any source country
Are the most satisfied with the performance of their operations Spend most per worker on training Have highest sales growth expectations Pay the highest wages
▶ Other African investors: High expenditure on training per worker High labor productivity High skill intensity
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Key outcomes of the 2005 Survey▶ Proportion of South-South FDI increasing over time; their
perception, performance and decision making characteristics differ from North
▶ Individual investors (FEs) are an important element of FDI in SSA and require new investment promotion strategy
They need and want more investment assistance Regarded as growth sector by equity funds Many have regional market orientation
▶ Large differences between Francophone West Africa and Anglophone East Africa (structure, growth, age, etc. reflecting differing investment climate and response)
▶ Dichotomy of jobless growth versus employment generation with limited value creation.
Northern L-TNCs - stagnant employment but high share of skilled labour force South S-TNCs – labour-intensive industries with fast growth but no human
capacity development and low wages
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Future investment rate and volume
Note: Over the next three years, normalized with 2004 total firm sales
32.7%
64.0%61.3%
27.4%
107.3%
65.8%
49.2%
29.7%
7.3% 7.5% 8.0% 8.0%12.5%
4.5%7.3%6.5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
North South SubSaharan
Africa
SouthAfrica
Middle Eastand
NorthernAfrica
TheAmericas
andOceania
Asia Europe0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Mean Median
NMEAN
(in USD)MEDIAN (in USD)
SUM (in Million of USD)
North 481 $3,526,968 $384,800 $1,696.5
South 401 $3,269,820 $167,000 $1,311.2
Total 882 $3,410,056 $250,000 $3,007.7
Sub Saharan Africa 112 $4,352,050 $198,483 $487.4
South Africa 55 $7,052,639 $102,410 $387.9
Middle East and Northern Africa 93 $2,561,292 $288,600 $238.2
The Americas and Oceania 48 $4,160,346 $550,715 $199.7
Asia 133 $2,897,093 $100,056 $385.3
Europe 429 $2,871,042 $378,183 $1,231.7
Total 870 $3,368,060 $245,250 $2,930.2
Expected new investment volume (over the next 3 years)
Note: MTN Nigeria was not considered
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Expected future investment
MEANSUM (in Mio
USD)Nigeria 12,702,843 1,257.6Mali 10,947,235 416.0Cam eroon 8,122,000 430.5Tanzania, UR 5,570,643 423.4Ethiopia 4,549,279 263.9Mozam bique 3,896,047 335.1Madagascar 3,362,682 218.6Côte d'Ivoire 3,187,843 111.6Burkina Faso 3,107,334 220.6Senegal 2,209,855 99.4Uganda 1,675,309 117.3Malaw i 1,155,492 60.1Kenya 1,143,730 96.1Guinea 849,722 36.5Ghana 792,452 24.6TOTAL 4,537,613 4,111.1
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Past and future investment volumes for different sub-sectors
Past 3 years Next 3 years
MEANSUM (in Mio
USD)Transport & Communication 7,739,167 518.5Elec., Gas & Water supply 6,107,175 103.8Garment, Apparel & Leather 5,977,332 137.5Financial intermediation 4,373,072 310.5Chemical, Plastic & Rubber 4,009,733 505.2Food, Beverages & Tobacco 3,913,097 453.9Marketing, Sales & Distribution 2,871,228 439.3Non-Metalic Mineral prods. 2,511,421 65.3Hotel & Restaurant 2,420,677 101.7Textile 2,358,313 61.3Agric., Fish, & Nat. Resources 2,161,411 88.6Basic Metals 1,990,403 55.7Paper & Paper prods. 1,748,856 24.5Professional Services 1,340,930 77.8Construction 1,270,522 34.3Auto, Machinery & Equipm. 1,111,747 38.9Publishing & Media 519,946 6.8Wood prods. & furniture 327,752 7.2Total 3,348,984 3030.8
MEAN in (USD)
SUM (Millions of USD)
Food, Beverages & Tobacco 6,290,836 761.2Transport & Communication 5,881,507 441.1Elec., Gas & Water supply 5,199,078 98.8Financial intermediation 3,513,575 263.5Marketing, Sales & Distribution 2,488,457 420.5Agric., Fish, & Nat. Resources 2,402,680 81.7Garment, apparel & leather 2,322,219 58.1Chemical, Plastic & Rubber 2,112,482 278.8Basic Metals 1,822,333 60.1Textile 1,809,529 48.9Non-Metalic Mineral prods. 1,546,089 40.2Professional Services 1,246,432 78.5Auto, Machinery & Equipm. 1,209,066 43.5Paper & paper prods. 1,189,690 14.3Construction 1,134,993 35.2Hotel & Restaurant 873,756 40.2Publishing & Media 731,587 10.2Wood prods. & furniture 368,777 8.5Total 2,896,327 2783.4
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IntermediaryAgencies
Political willPolitical will INVESTMENTINVESTMENTCLIMATECLIMATE PERFORMANCEPERFORMANCE IMPACTIMPACT
Management of FDI-Local
economy
•Growth Employment Investment•Local supply chain•Training•Technology diffusion•Export
•Output growth
•Investor satisfaction
•Productivity
•Market conditions
•Local resources
•Operational and regulatory impediments
Priority issues to be addressed Investor
support services
Political willPolitical will
Policy Policy InterventionIntervention
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Indicators
PolicyStrategy/services
Measure policy impactCalibration
Survey data
CountryData
Enterprise Diagnostic
Data
Supplier Sub-contr.
Data
Country(Gov. inst.)
Civilsociety
RECs &Development
partners
FinancialInstitutions
Companies
Investment opportunitiesTrends
Suppliers/buyers partnersSupport services
Growth areasSpecific opportunities
Technical assistance
needs
Transparency
Online tools
Other Data
Sources
Company BenchmarkTrainingAnalysis
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Thank you.
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Mr. Yoshiteru UramotoDeputy to UNIDO Director General