Upload
jody
View
34
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Fertility in Transition Family and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification Michaela Kreyenfeld. Relevance of Research Question. Politics and Media Convergence of fertility behavior= indicator of „social unification“? Statistical Office Harmonizing of the statistics? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Fertility in TransitionFamily and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification
Michaela Kreyenfeld
Politics and Media• Convergence of fertility behavior=
indicator of „social unification“?
Statistical Office• Harmonizing of the statistics?
Social Science• Natural experiement • Study of behavior under radically new
constraints
Relevance of Research Question
0
1
2
3
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
East
West
Structure of Talk
1. Constraints and fertility dynamics until 1990
2. Constraints and attitudes after 1990
3. Fertility dynamics after 1990
Constraints before 1990
Planned Economy• Constitutional „right to work”• No unemployment
Integration of Women into Labor Market• Normative pressure to be employed • High public day care coverage
Pro-Natalistic Policies (since 1972)• Policies and „moral appeals“ that encouraged early first birth• Policies directed to higher order births
Fertility Dynamics before 1990
Total Fertility Rate
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
East Germany
West Germany
Pro-natalistic policies
Fertility Dynamics before 1990
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
Percentage of Non-Marital Births
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
East Germany
West Germany
Fertility Dynamics before 1990
Source: Micro-census 1998 (own calculations)
0%
50%
100%
15 20 25 30 35
Age of woman
Cohort 1964 (West)
Cohort 1964 (Ost)
Survival curve to first birth (percentage childless by age)
~ 25-30 %
~ 5-10 %
~ 5 years
Part 2
Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
Fall of Berlin Wall
Jan
Feb
Mar Apr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar Apr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec Jan
1989 1990 1991
Monetary Union
Legal UnificationTreuhand
• Fall of ‘Berlin Wall’ in November 1989
• Start of Privatization Process in March 1990
• Monetary Union in July 1990
• Political and Legal Unification in October 1990
Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
Unemployment Rate
Source: Bundesagentur für Arbeit
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1990 1995 2000 2005
East Germany
West Germany
Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
0 €
5 €
10 €
15 €
20 €
1990 1995 2000 2005
Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
Hourly Gross WageWages in the industry sector
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
East Germany
West Germany
Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
Worried about Job Security% of respondents who is very worried about job security
Source: SOEP (own estimations)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1990 1995 2000 2005
East Germany
West Germany
Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
One needs a Family to Lead a Happy Life% of respondents who states that one needs a family to lead a happy life
Source: ALLBUS (own estimations)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1992 1996 2000 2004
West Germany
East Germany
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1992 1996 2000 2004
Westdeutschland
Ostdeutschland
Quelle: Allbus (eigene Berechnungen)
Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
Child Suffers when Mother Works% of respondents who believe that child suffers when mother works
Source: ALLBUS (own estimations)
West Germany
East Germany
Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
Mother‘s Full-time Employment% of mothers*) who work full-time, [*)women aged 18-45 with children aged 1-15]
Quelle: Kreyenfeld/ Konietzka (2007)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1991 1996 2000 2004
West Germany
East Germany
West Germany
East Germany
Constraints and Attitudes after 1990
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt
Provision of Public Day Care (Children under age 3)(Availability ratio for public day care places for children aged 0-3)
West Germany
East Germany
Part 3
Family Dynamics after 1990
Fertility Dynamics after 1990
Total Fertility Rate
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
East Germany
West Germany
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0%
50%
100%
15 20 25 30 35Age of Woman
Family Dynamics after 1990
Source: Micro-census (own estimations)
Cohort 1972 (East)
Cohort 1964 (East)
~ 5 years
Survival Curve to First Birth (percentage childless by age)
Cohort 1972 (West)
Family Dynamics after 1990
Source: Kreyenfeld/ Konietzka (2007)
Childlessness at age 38 in East and West Germany
Cohort
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960
26%
14%
20%
1965
East Germany
West Germany
Fertility Dynamics after 1990
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
Percentage of Non-Marital Births
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
19%
34%
10%
East Germany
West Germany
Fertility Dynamics after 1990
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
Percentage of Non-Marital Births
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
19%
34%
59%
10%
23%
East Germany
West Germany
Family Dynamics after 1990
Source: miicro-census (own estimations)
West Germany East Germany
No degree
VocationalUniversitydegree
14%8%7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1976 1982 1989 1996 2000 2004
Nodegree
Vocationaldegree
Universitydegree
64%
39%
21%
26%
18%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1976 1982 1991 1996 2000 2004
Non-marital parenthood by women’s education (% of unmarried mothers*) by final education [women aged 15-45 with children below age 3)]
Conclusions
Family Formation
• Dramatic increase in age at first birth compared to GDR-times
• However: East Germans are still younger at first birth than West Germans
Crisis of East or West German behavior?
Non-Marital Fertility
• Unexpected increase in non-marital fertilty in the East after 1990
Persisting East-West- Differences in family structure
No „adaptation“ to West German constraints?
“The more liberal attitudes towards out-of-wedlock childbearing –already more accepted in the rest of Europe– could disrupt the more traditional West German pattern of family formation” (Heilig/Büttner/Lutz 1990)
Conclusions
15%
17%
22%
29%
30%
33%
36%
43%
45%
46%
51%
55%
58%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Italy
Poland
West Germany
Portugal
Russian Federation
Netherlands
Austria
United Kingdom
Denmark
France
Norway
Sweden
East Germany
Percentage of Non-Marital Births in 2004
Source: Council of Europe
Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung
www.demogr.mpg.de