FFMP ImprovementsFFMP ImprovementsOB8.3 and OB9OB8.3 and OB9

Ernie WellsErnie WellsNational Flash Flood Services Program LeaderNational Flash Flood Services Program Leader

Hydrologic Services DivisionHydrologic Services DivisionOffice of Climate, Water and Weather ServicesOffice of Climate, Water and Weather Services

CBRFC SH CallMay 29, 2008

2

OutlineOutlineFFMP Improvements

(QPE/QPF Improvements)

– High resolution rain rate and precipitation accumulation grids

spatial resolution 1/4 HRAP mesh length (~1x1 km)

Update frequency configurable up to 5 minute intervals

– DHR used to create radar rain rate estimates

– Gages are NOT used in this version of EMPE, however the MPE gage-radar bias table can be used in rain rate and accumulation estimation

– Dual Polarization DPR NOT used in this version of EMPE

• High-resolution Precipitation Estimation (HPE) (AWIPS OB8.3)

3

OutlineOutline

• High-resolution Precipitation Nowcaster (HPN) (AWIPS OB9.0)

– An extrapolative forecast of the reflectivity field valid for the next hour, updated every 15 minutes on an HRAP grid. Additional fields for AWIPS display include:

1-hour radar precipitation accumulation forecast (with and without bias correction)

Instantaneous rain rate forecasts at 15 minute intervals out through 1-hour (with and without bias correction)

• RFC MPE Mean Field Bias to WFO (AWIPS OB8.2)

– WFO operators can select which RFC bias message to receive and which

bias message to send to the RPG

• NMQ/Q2 infusion into NCEP (no targeted build)

• Probabilistic QPE (no targeted build)

FFMP Improvements(QPE/QPF Improvements)

4

OutlineOutline

• Ingest gridded data (QPE, QPF, and guidance)

FFMP ImprovementsOB8.3 Improvements

5

OutlineOutlineFFMP Improvements

OB8.3 Improvements

• Attribute Inclusion in the Basin Trend Table

6

OutlineOutlineFFMP Improvements

OB8.3 Improvements

• Split Window QPF

7

OutlineOutlineFFMP Improvements

OB8.3 Improvements

• On the fly CWA coverage

8

OutlineOutlineFFMP Improvements

OB8.3 Improvements

• Enhanced Basin Trend

9

OutlineOutline

• Site Controlled Time Window Maximum

– Uses purge value from AWIPS Intelligent Purger

• Increase in number of monitor sites

– From 3 to 5

• Localization containment

– Separate from SCAN

• Enhanced Displaced Real-Time (DRT)

FFMP ImprovementsOB8.3 Improvements

10

OutlineOutline

• Fixed Duration Basin Trend Graphs

FFMP ImprovementsOB9 Improvements

MD, Charles: Potomac6-hour (6-hr of QPE)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00

August 22, 2007 (Time in GMT)

Inch

(in/

hr)

Precip rate (in/hr)

Precipaccumulation (in)

VGB accumulation

forecast precipaccumulation (in)

6-hour FFG

Alltimes

3-hr 6-hr 1-hr

11

OutlineOutline

• Fixed Duration Basin Trend Graphs

FFMP ImprovementsOB9 Improvements

MD, Charles: Potomac6-hour (6-hr of QPE)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00

August 22, 2007 (Time in GMT)

Inc

h (

in/h

r)

Precip rate (in/hr)

Precipaccumulation (in)

VGB accumulation

forecast precipaccumulation (in)

6-hour FFG

Alltimes

3-hr 6-hr 1-hr

MD, Charles: Potomac6-hour (5-hr QPE + 1-hr QPF)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00

August 22, 2007 (time in GMT)

Inc

h (

in/h

r)

precip rate (in/hr)

precip accumulation(in)

VGB accumulation

forecast precip rate(in/hr)

forecast precipaccumulation (in) 1-hour duration

6-hour FFG

6-hr

3-hr

1-hr

All times

12

OutlineOutline

• FFG Updating

FFMP ImprovementsOB9 Improvements

3 Hour GFFG - ABRFC Grid 631,330

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3/3

0z

3/3

6z

3/3

12

z

3/3

18

z

3/4

0z

3/4

6z

3/4

12

z

3/4

18

z

Inc

he

s

Hourly Precip

GFFG

GFFG w/3hr delay

Derived GFFG(assuming 6hr RFCFFG update cycle)

13

OutlineOutlineImproving Flash Flood Services

WarnGen OB8.3

• FFMP Basin names in WarnGen

Must obtain,

customize and VERIFY new domain

based small basinfiles

FFMP ImprovementsFFMP ImprovementsOB8.3 and OB9OB8.3 and OB9

Thank you!Thank you!

Any Questions?Any Questions?

CBRFC SH CallMay 29, 2008