FFMPA Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction - Advanced

FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010

A Review for Experienced UsersEastern Region Flash Flood Conference

Tom FiliaggiMay 2010

FFMPAFLASH FLOOD MONITORING AND PREDICTION -

ADVANCED

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

Topics to be covered . . .• Very Basic Overview• Highlights/Strengths• Other things you may not know about FFMP• Possible Future Enhancements (AWIPS2+)• Responsible Individuals



FFMPAVery Basic Overview

• Ingests precipitation data and guidance data in various forms (server-side):– Precip: QPE, QPF– Guidance: Flash Flood, Debris Flow, ??– Gridded: Radar polar, lat/lon, HRAP (& derivative)

• Transforms the data into the ‘small hydrologic basin’ world, based on small basin GIS shapefiles (server-side)

• Displays and monitors according to what configuration the user has defined. This allows for:– Comparison of accumulation to guidance– Customizable time frame– Auto-aggregation



FFMPA Very Basic Overview: Display



FFMPAHighlights/Strengths

• Variable, User-configured Data Source usage– QPE, QPF, Guidance (Flash Flood, Debris Flow, ++??)– Grids: Radar polar, lat/lon (& derivative), HRAP (& derivative)– Individual radars as well as full grid, multi-sourced analyses:

HPE/HPN, Q2/NMQ

• On-the-fly Service Backup implementation– Independent from D2D or workstation Service backup status

• Drill down to single basin trend detail, when needed• Virtual Gage Basins (VGB): QPE Source QC



Highlights/Strengths: Split Window



– Combine QPE with QPF, then compare to guidance

– Brings much more of a predictive quality to FFMP

Highlights/Strengths: Automated Monitoring• Customizable

– Color-coded– Data Sources– Type choice

• Accum• Ratio• Diff

• Filterable– CWA (Service Backup)

• Time selection– Rate– ¼-hour increments– Max based on purge

• Split Window– Combine QPE & QPF

then compare to Guidance

• Value added– Data gap notice– Multiple Monitor

conditions



Highlights/Strengths: Forced Guidance• Applies user-defined

FFG– Strict override– Modification(+-)

• For user-defined ‘Guidance’ data sources

• For a user-defined period of time

• For a user-defined area– County /– Basin /– Entire domain

• That is retrievable• Great for:

– Urban– Fire scars



Highlights/Strengths: RFC FFG Update Method

• Elements of Transition method:– Apply a lag, to eliminate double-counting of precipitation in FFMPA analyses. This lag

will be equal to the Time Frame of the Guidance. (ie: 3-hr Guidance = 3-hr lag).– Apply an hourly interpolation scheme that manages precipitation in a way that greatly

enhances the Guidance values for the transition period and avoids increased under-warn situations that could exist with a lag-only approach.

3 Hour GFFG - ABRFC Grid 631,330

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3/3

0z

3/3

6z

3/3

12

z

3/3

18

z

3/4

0z

3/4

6z

3/4

12

z

3/4

18

z

Inc

he

s

Hourly Precip

GFFG

GFFG w/3hr delay

Derived GFFG(assuming 6hr RFCFFG update cycle)



FFMPAHighlights/Strengths

• Auto-aggregation– Phenomenon scale variability

• Areal• Temporal• flash flood vs. river flood



Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation


















• Specific Time Frame Trends– Can still view All-times– QPF interpretation (ie:

Split Window) may be easier for specific time frames



Things you may not know about FFMPA




• Basin Trace• Upstream• Downstream• Up & Down• D2D hatch

method not easy to see with full color image

• Ingest Monitor– Notes health of

data ingest, of interest to FFMPA

– User-defined determination of “too old”

– HTML Interface

– Special rules for RADAR DHR




FFMPAPossible Future Enhancements

• Enhance Auto-Aggregates:– Provide trends, maps, better names

• Value-added Trends– Precip. Frequency: eg: 100-yr mark for 3-hr time frame– Moving sub-total: eg: moving 3hr accumulation in 24-hr trend

• Basin Trend accumulation plots as steps, not lines – At least for VGB plots

• Add more recognized and usable grid projections– Would allow for the use of potentially more Data Sources



FFMPAPossible Future Enhancements

• Enhance Basin Table:– Provide area and full upstream area– Provide full upstream precipitation accumulations

• Provide variable and targeted Z/R management for WSR88D Data Sources

• Enhance Forced FFG definitions: – Geo-tool: paint shapes, draw polygons, etc

• Usage at RFCs– Currently, AWIPS I limitations exist which basically prohibit

FFMP’s use at RFCs



• Main Developers– Tom Filiaggi - MDL: Lead

[email protected]

– Lingyan Xin - [email protected]

FFMPA Responsible Individuals



Documents

FFMPA Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction - Advanced